Sunday, April 24, 2011

Red Sox Starters Leading Remarkable Surge


Where's Dice-K?


When this season is looked back upon during the home stretch of September, the New York Yankees may rue the fact that they didn't bury the Red Sox in April, when they had the chance.

After all, this is a Red Sox team that famously (or infamously) started the season 0-6 and 2-10 before finally putting together a winning streak of at least three games.

In fact, the Red Sox were more than half way through April before they finally accomplished that.

By Sunday morning, the Red Sox had won seven of their last eight games. When the day began, the Red Sox stood at 9-11, tied for third place and a game out of second in the AL East.

That seemed improbable just a week ago.

The division-leading Yankees are 11-6 and hold just a 2.5 game lead over the 11-11 Tampa Rays.

With the Red Sox still two games under .500, it's easy to imagine them being eight or more games out of first place, rather than just 3.5 games out.

And that's just what the Yankees may come to regret; that they didn't create much greater distance between themselves and their arch rivals, a team with a host of offensive stars and a suddenly scorching pitching staff.

Without question, the sudden change in the Red Sox' fortunes is attributable to their red-hot rotation.

Red Sox starters have allowed just six earned runs in the last eight games, a span of 53.1 innings. In those eight games, the starters are 6-1 with a miniscule 1.01 earned run average.

Suddenly, every Sox starter looks like a Cy Young candidate.

Their mind-boggling performances have resulted in the team ERA dropping from 6.79 to 4.73 in those eight games.

How amazing has this stretch been?

Well, Red Sox pitchers have allowed 15 earned runs in the last 73 innings.

Even the frustrating and baffling Daisuke Matsuzaka is suddenly unhittable.

In his last two starts, Dice-K has thrown 15 innings, giving up no earned runs, two hits and four walks, while striking out 12.

Suddenly, the Japanese enigma looks like the ace the Red Sox thought they were getting back in November, 2006.

Matsuzaka said his last two starts were the best he's had in his five seasons with the Red Sox. But they weren't merely the best back-to-back starts he's had in the majors.

As ESPN's Karl Ravech noted, Matsuzaka's last two starts were among the two or three best back-to-back starts in Red Sox history.

Buster Olney reported that a scout says Dice-K has "made a transformation."

We can only hope that this is not merely an aberration. It's safe to say that most Sox fans will withhold judgment and are not entirely sold yet.

After his last start against Toronto, Dice-K said he was motivated by the fear of losing his spot in the rotation.

It's about time. But, hey, whatever it takes.

If the pitching holds up, you can only wonder how good this team will eventually be this season. That's because the offense has yet to really heat up.

Among AL teams, the Red Sox are 11th in batting, 11th in total bases, 9th in runs, 9th in homers and 9th in slugging.

Obviously, there is much room for improvement. And most reasonable observers expect those improvements to come sooner rather than later.

When that happens, the division race will become much more interesting and the Yankees may regret not running away with the division when they had the chance.

They probably won't get another chance this season like the one they had this month.

Surely, the Red Sox don't have another 0-6 or 2-10 stretch in them this year. Do they?

Saturday, April 16, 2011

It's Mid-April and the Red Sox are Already Running Out of Time


The Red Sox' Frustrations Are Starting To Show, As Evidenced By Kevin Youkilis


Remember when the Red Sox were going to win 100 games on their way to another World Series Championship?

That's looking increasingly unlikely rather suddenly.

When the Sox were swept in Texas on opening weekend, it could be chalked up to playing the defending AL Champs, on the road. Perhaps everyone's timing was off; the hitters and pitchers just weren't clicking yet. The Red Sox were outscored 26-11 in the series.

But then the Sox were immediately swept by the lowly Cleveland Indians. Yes, it was very cold in Cleveland. But that didn't seem to affect the Indians, who outscored the Red Sox 12-5 in the series.

The Red Sox seemed to need to get home quickly and desperately. Perhaps the familiar and comfortable confines of Fenway Park and the first series against their arch rivals, the New York Yankees, would spark the fire that would send the Sox on their way for the rest of the season.

The Sox took two out of three from the Yanks. However, they were once again outscored, 19-13.

Then the lowly 1-8 Tampa Rays came to Fenway, the only team with a worse record than the Sox. It seemed like the perfect opportunity for the Sox to get on a winning streak and improve their record.

That didn't happen.

Instead, the Rays won two in a row against the Sox, while the third and final game was rained out. Thank goodness. Yet again, the Red Sox were outscored, this time 19-7.

As today began, the Red Sox were 2-10, the worst record in baseball. And they may be the worst team in baseball as well.

There isn't much good about the Red Sox at this point. They've been outscored 79-46. They're batting .224, 12th in the AL. Their ERA is 6.79, by far the worst in the AL. In fact, it's the worst in baseball — by a full run.

Simply put, this team is a mess. Being eight games below .500 in mid-April is not something that anyone could have imagined. And it is already a hole so deep that the Sox may not be able to extricate themselves from it.

There are 150 games yet to play. In order to win 95 games this season, the Red Sox need to go 93-57 the rest of the way. That's a .620 winning percentage. From the beginning of the season, it would have been just a .586 winning percentage to get to 95 wins.

Perhaps that gives you an idea of just how difficult it's going to be for this team to win 95 games and/or make the playoffs.

I don't mean to sound alarmist, but the season may already be over for the Red Sox. The playoffs are, perhaps, an unrealistic dream.

If you're looking for good news, the Sox are just five games behind the division-leading Yankees, who are just 7-5.

However, as the Boston Globe's Tony Massarotti recently pointed out, the difference between a 97-win team and an 81-win team is a single victory in every 10 contests.

"You go 6-4 during that span, you win 97. You go 5-5, you win 81," wrote Massarotti. "The line between mediocrity and championship contention is not nearly as thick as many would like to believe."

The Red Sox had an Opening Day payroll approaching $164 million. There isn't much they can do to improve this team right now. There are many expensive, long-term contracts throughout the roster.

And under-achieving players are never easy to trade, especially when they've been under-achieving for more than a year (JD Drew, Dice-K, John Lackey, Josh Beckett).

Any sort of trade isn't very likely until at least June, when other teams will have figured out what their potential is, what their needs are, and what contracts they need to jettison. A call-up of a player like Ryan Kalish is more likely in the short-term.

Clearly, the Red Sox need to stir the pot and shake things up. And they need to find a solution quickly.

It's April 16th and, as difficult as it is to believe, the Red Sox are already running out of time.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Marco Scutaro Provides Talent, Grit, Value to Red Sox


Throughout the winter, there was persistent talk that the Red Sox might shop Marco Scutaro. However, all that talk originated from outside the organization.

Some fans are pining for Jose Iglesias to take over as the Opening Day shortstop, despite the fact that the 21-year-old Cuban has never played a game above Double A.

But while the young phenom may be a fully developed fielder, he is still an unfinished product offensively and needs to continue his development at the minor league level.

And Jed Lowrie is the perfect utility man for the Sox. Possessing the unique ability to play all four infield positions, Lowrie will provide valuable rest to each of the infield starters and is the perfect insurance policy in case of injury.

Having Lowrie as his utility man will allow Terry Francona to take advantage of his potent bat a few games each week.

For a variety of reasons, Scutaro, who is entering the final year of his two-year deal, is the ideal shortstop for the Red Sox in 2011.

Given that he'll be making just $5 million this season (with a $6 million club option / $3 million player option / $1.5 million buyout for 2012), Scutaro is a steal.

But Scutaro is more than just affordable.

Last year, Scutaro led all Major League shortstops with 38 doubles, even though he played most of the season with a bum shoulder. The next closest shortstop had 33 doubles.

And among Major League shortstops, Scutaro was second with 632 at-bats, second with 174 hits and third with 92 runs. He was also sixth in total bases, sixth in walks, 10th in RBI, and 17th in strike outs.

By these measures, Scutaro was among the best shortstops in the game last season.

While some may believe that Scuatro had an off season in 2010, that just isn't so. Scutaro had a career-highs in hits (174), doubles (38) and total bases (245).

Despite a pinched nerve in his neck that affected his shoulder and caused him great pain, Scutaro posted numbers similar to those he put up in Toronto the previous year.

With the Jays in 2009, Scutaro hit .282 with 12 homers and 60 RBIs. With the Sox in 2010, he hit .275 with 11 homers and 56 RBIs.

However, Scutaro was more than just a solid offensive player in 2010.

Scutaro's .965 fielding percentage was 12th best in baseball among shortstops with at least 500 total chances. Most of his 18 errors were throwing errors, the product of that troubled shoulder. The inflammation in Scutaro's right rotator cuff got so bad that it forced his move from shortstop to second base for most of September.

All indications are that he is now fully recovered.

Former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi appreciates the 35-year-old shortstop's talent and grit.

"When he's healthy, he's one of the three best defensive shortstops in the league," said Ricciard last year. "He's one of the best shortstops, period. He's a guy that's going to be able to play at this level until he's 37 or 38. He works at it. He's a really smart player. He's a great baserunner. He keeps improving [his on-base percentage rose from .332 to .341 to .379 over the previous three seasons]. He grinds at-bats [he led all shortstops in pitches per at-bat in 2009]. He can do a lot of things."

The bottom line is that, considering what the Red Sox are paying him, Scutaro is a steal. And he's a gamer. The guy simply doesn't take days off.

Despite his painful and nagging injury, Scutaro played in 150 games last season. All he does is go out and play hard every day.

How tough is Scutaro? Put it this way; he's never been on the DL. Enough said.

In Scutaro, the Red Sox have the perfect bridge to Iglesias and they will be well-served with the nine-year veteran as their starting shortstop in 2011, and perhaps even 2012.

Last season, White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez won the Silver Slugger Award.

Ramirez, 29, hit .282 with 18 homers and 70 RBIs in 156 games. He led AL shortstops in average, slugging percentage (.431), homers and total bases (252), and he ranked second in RBIs.

For comparison's sake, Scutaro hit .275 with 11 homers and 56 RBI in 150 games. Scutaro also posted a .388 SLG.% and 245 total bases.

As you can see, the difference between the Silver Slugger winner and Scutaro wasn't that dramatic. And you have to wonder how much better Scutaro would have been if healthy.

This season, the Red Sox should find out.

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

Red Sox Have High Hopes For Ryan Kalish In 2012, And Beyond



As an emergency call-up to a depleted Red Sox team last season, 22-year-old Ryan Kalish impressed just about everyone.

In 53 games, the highly-touted Kalish hit .252 with four home runs and 24 RBI.

Given more at-bats, that average will surely rise. And scouts believe Kalish has 20 home run power. The New Jersey native also exhibited great run-producing capability last September; at mid-month he had 14 RBIs in 12 games.

Kalish has a strong arm, which makes him an obvious candidate to replace JD Drew in right field next season. However, the talented young outfielder has the versatility to play all three outfield positions.

Though he doesn't possess blazing speed, Kalish is quick and possesses excellent instincts. This combination allows him to cover plenty of ground in center field, as he displayed last year playing in place of the injured Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron.

And guess who led the Red Sox in stolen bases last season? If you answered Ryan Kalish, you're right. Flashing quickness and an aggressive approach on the base paths, Kalish swiped 10 bases in just 53 games last year.

These varied skill-sets have many Red Sox observers looking forward to seeing Kalish in the outfield every day next season, after Drew's contract expires.

There's the hope that Kalish will develop into a star player, the likes of which haven't been seen in right field since Dwight Evans left town.

Here's the history of Red Sox right fielders in the post-Evans era:

1990-1992: Tom Brunansky
1993: Carlos Quintanna
1994: Billy Hatcher
1995-1997: Troy O'Leary (played outfield with Sox from '95-'01)
1998: Darren Bragg
1999-2006: Trot Nixon
2007-2011: JD Drew

None of these players was truly great.

Brunansky came to the Sox past his prime and is best remembered for his diving catch of an Ozzie Guillen liner in the ninth inning of the final game of the 1990 season, which sent the Sox to the ALCS.

Red Sox fans loved Nixon for his 'Dirt Dog' style of play. However, despite having three solid years in a row (2001-2003), Nixon never hit 30 homers or drove in 100 runs. And he scored 100 runs just once. Despite that, he was actually better — statistically, at least — than Drew.

Unfortunately, Drew has always been hamstrung by the five-year, $70 million contract he signed prior to the 2007 season.

However, you simply can't blame a guy for accepting the best offer available to him. Theo Epstein had a man-crush on Drew and doggedly pursued him. Ultimately. Epstein was bidding against only himself when he gave Drew the aforementioned contract. Yet, it's now abundantly clear that it was too much, and too long.

Drew has always been heralded for his OPS, a combination of on-base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage. However, OBP only matter matters if you score and slugging only matters if you drive in runs.

Drew does neither particularly well. During his four years with the Sox, Drew has never driven in, or scored, 100 runs. His best efforts were 68 and 84, respectively. That should explain why so many fans have always felt disenchanted by Drew.

Considering the past 20 years of history in right field at Fenway, it's easy to see why people are so excited about Kalish.

The homegrown talent offers the unique mix of multiple tools, youth, tenacity, and a full-tilt playing style that should endear him to Red Sox fans for years to come.

The notion of such a young player taking over right field next year, at just the age of 23 — and possibly holding down the position for a decade or more — is very exciting indeed.

Wednesday, March 02, 2011

Beckett & Lackey Key To Red Sox 2011 Aspirations


After an offseason of major acquisitions, and the return of a group of star players from injury, the consensus view is that the Red Sox will field a potent offense this season.

And, on paper at least, the Sox bullpen has been upgraded with the additions of Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler and others.

Perhaps the most pressing question about the Red Sox as they enter this season is the strength of their rotation.

Going into last season, most observers viewed the Boston rotation as perhaps the best in the game. But Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka both suffered injuries and did not pitch well when seemingly healthy.

For his part, John Lackey came face-to-face with the relentless nature of AL East lineups.

As spring training unfolds, the big unanswered question is whether Beckett and Lackey, in particular, will have bounce-back seasons in 2011. Both are big, right-handed Texans, who under-performed in 2010.

But that's where last year's similarities end. Lackey doesn't need to bounce back so much as improve on 2010.

Lackey reported to spring training looking trimmer than last year, saying he dropped 11 pounds by doing an hour of cardio per day (20 minutes on a treadmill, 20 minutes on a bike and then 20 minutes on an elliptical trainer).

All that hard work reduced his girth from 252 pounds to 241, and hopefully that weight loss will benefit him this season.

Clearly, Lackey needed to make some changes after his first year in Boston was widely viewed as a disappointment.

The big right-hander sported a hefty 4.40 ERA, his highest since 2004. Lackey also allowed 233 hits and tied his career-high with 72 walks. That amounted to 305 base-runners and resulted in a 1.42 WHIP, the highest of his nine-year career.

Additionally, lefties hit Lackey particularly hard, going .298/.364/.438 against him.

On the upside, Lackey led the Red Sox with 33 starts and 21 quality starts last season. Consequently, the former Angel also led the Sox with 215 innings pitched.

Additionally, the Red Sox' newcomer posted a respectable 14-11 record last season. Just 14 American League pitchers won more games than Lackey in 2010. And his 14 wins were tied for second-highest of his career, behind the 19 victories he posted in 2007.

For comparison's sake, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Ervin Santana and Carl Pavano were the only other AL starters who posted at least 14 wins and 215 innings last season.

However, Lackey also had the benefit of the 11th-best run support in the AL. In fact, Lackey had six wins last season in which he did not make a quality start (at least six innings pitched, allowing three or fewer runs). That amounted to almost half of his wins in 2010.

The hope is that Lackey can build on the momentum he developed in the second half of last season, when his ERA fell to 3.97 and his WHIP to 1.22. Lackey also fanned more than eight batters per nine innings in his last 14 outings, while cutting down his walk rate significantly.

Beckett, on the other hand, is coming off an utter disaster in 2010. If Beckett had only pitched the way that Lackey did last year, his season wouldn't have been such an absolute failure.

Last year, by far the worst of his nine full seasons, Beckett made just 21 starts and pitched just 127.2 innings.

The results looked like this:

Record: 6-6
ERA: 5.78
Opponent Avg: .292
Strikeouts: 116
WHIP: 1.54
Quality starts: 10

Beckett's ERA and WHIP testify to how truly awful he was last year. But the fact that he made just 10 quality starts in 21 attempts also speaks volumes.

When Beckett joined the Red Sox before the 2006 season, he was viewed as an elite, front-of-the-rotation starter who would anchor the Red Sox rotation for years to come. Over his five seasons with the Marlins, Beckett had posted a 3.16 ERA.

However, over his five seasons in Boston, Beckett owns a 4.39 ERA. Even if you exclude his disastrous 2010 campaign, Beckett's ERA from 2006-2009 was still 4.04, hardly the stuff of an ace. Additionally, Beckett has yet to strike out 200 batters in any season in the majors.

To this point, there has been just one season in which Beckett has lived up to all the hype and performed like the stud the Red Sox thought they were getting when they traded Hanley Ramirez for him.

In 2007, Beckett went 20-7 with a 3.27 ERA, 194 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP.

Due to injuries and ineffectiveness, Beckett has reached 200 innings in just three of his five seasons with the Red Sox.

It's safe to assume that Beckett feels an awesome sense of responsibility to the team and wants to live up to the four-year, $68 million contract he signed last April. The big righty is viewed as a leader in the Red Sox clubhouse, particularly amongst Red Sox pitchers.

Yet, it's difficult to know what to expect from Beckett this season. He has alternated between good and disappointing seasons since arriving in Boston. It's been widely noted that he seems to pitch well only in odd years, which may be a good omen for 2011.

The Red Sox can only hope so, because they have hitched their wagon to Beckett, who will be critical to their success and post-season aspirations this year.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

A Look At The Red Sox Top Prospects


Shortstop Jose Iglesias is now listed as the Red Sox top prospect


When Theo Epstein became the Red Sox GM before the 2002 season, he repeatedly stated his intention to create a "scouting and player development machine".

"Our goal for player development and scouting is to develop a constant flow of impact talent through our farm system," Epstein reminded us prior to the 2003 season.

The Boston GM expressed his hope that the organization would develop "impact young talent for our major league club" because "talented young players are more likely to stay healthy and are more likely to improve than older players."

Epstein noted that grooming young talent is less expensive than having to fulfill needs through free agency. And, he said, developing minor league players into productive major leaguers also allows the club to direct its resources in the free agent market when and where needed.

Additionally, developing organizational depth also allows the club to address its needs internally when injuries occur. And it provides more flexibility in executing trades that will help the big league club.

During Epstein's tenure, the Red Sox have drafted and developed numerous players — such as Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia — into successful big leaguers.

What's more, the club has been able to swap minor leaguers — like Hanley Ramirez (SS), Casey Kelly (RHP) and Anthony Rizzo (1B) — for proven major league veterans Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Adrian Gonzalez.

Losing Kelly and Rizzo were blows to the Red Sox' minor league system, pulling two premier prospects from the organizational depth chart and out of the major league pipeline.

Given the departure of those two players (both now in the Padres' system), many wonder who among the remaining Red Sox prospects appear to be the next crop of rising stars, the next impact players on the Boston roster?

With that in mind, let's look at how some experts rank the current group of Red Sox prospects.

The Baseball America Prospects Handbook lists the top 10 Red Sox prospects as:

1. SS Jose Iglesias
2. RHP Anthony Ranaudo
3. LHP Drake Britton
4. OF Josh Reddick
5. LHP Felix Doubront
6. RHP Stolmy Pimentel
7. 3B Garin Cecchini
8. 1B Lars Anderson
9. 3B Kolbrin Vitek
10. 2B Oscar Tejada

Keith Law of ESPN has Iglesias (45), Ranaudo (54) and Britton (90) in his top 100. Law ranks the Boston farm system 11th in baseball.

At No. 42, Iglesias was the only Red Sox player on Jonathan Mayo’s list of the top 50 prospects on mlb.com. In the positional breakdown, Iglesias was No. 3 among shortstops, Tejada sixth among second basemen, and Anderson ninth among first basemen.

Now, a closer look at the Top 10:

At this point, most Sox fans are aware that Jose Iglesias is the Red Sox shortstop in waiting, the heir apparent to the spot presently manned by Marco Scutaro.

Iglesias is a slick fielder, but questions remain about his bat. The 21-year-old Cuban still needs time to develop his offense at the minor league level.

Anthony Ranaudo was drafted by the Red Sox last season. Coming out after his junior year, Ranaudo was viewed as one of the top pitchers in the draft and was expected to be an early draft pick.

However, Ranaudo missed five weeks of the season due to an elbow injury and his draft stock dropped. The Sox swooped in and claimed Ranaudo with the 39th pick in the supplemental draft last summer.

Soon after, the 6'7" righty dominated the Cape Cod League, posting a 3-0 record, pitching 29.2 scoreless innings, fanning 31 batters, and walking just eight.

Having the 21-year-old Ranaudo in the pipeline softened the blow of losing Kelly, as he projects to be a middle-of-the-rotation big league pitcher.

Drake Britton, a 21-year-old lefty, spent last season at High-A Greenville and posted a 2.97 ERA over 21 starts. In 75.2 innings, Britton struck out 78 and allowed just 69 hits.

Britton has a very high ceiling and a fastball that tops out at around 97 mph. A 23rd round pick in the 2007 draft, Britton had Tommy John surgery in October 2008, causing him to miss most of the 2009 season. As a result, he is at least a year behind in his development.

Josh Reddick, 24, is projected as a solid defensive outfielder with good range, a strong arm and the ability to hit for power. Reddick needs to develop better plate discipline and prove he can consistently hit big league pitching.

Felix Doubront, a 23-year-old lefty, projects as a starter but may first make an impact in the Red Sox bullpen. An opportunity could arise there as soon as this season. And should the Sox need a spot starter at any point, Doubront will be the first in line amongst the minor league candidates.

Stolmy Pimentel spent 2010 with Class High-A Salem. At 6'4" and 225 pounds, Pimentel is a big righty with a four-seam fastball that hits 92-95 mph, a two-seamer in the 87-89 mph range, a 12-6 curveball in the mid-70s and an above-average change-up.

Pimental is aggressive, works fast and has a strong mound presence. But he is just 21-years-old and still needs time to develop and progress through the system.

Garin Cecchini (19 years old) and Kolbrin Vitek (21) are both third basemen that were drafted last year in the fourth and first rounds, respectively. Both are highly regarded and project well at the big league level. But neither has yet to spend a full year in the minors. Vitek will start the season at Low-A Greenville.

A couple of years ago, Lars Anderson was projected as the next big, power-hitting first baseman for the Red Sox and seemed poised to become a fixture in the lineup for years to come. Then everything changed.

After a rapid ascent, Anderson suddenly went backwards. The big lefty impressed coaches and scouts by hitting .316 at Portland in 2008. However, he followed that by bating just .233 there the next year. And last season he started strong, batting .355 in Portland, but then hit just .262 upon promotion to Pawtucket.

Anderson has good power and a keen eye, but can be streaky and has shown a tendency to struggle for weeks at a time. At just 23-years-old, he is still young and has time to develop.

However, his path to the Red Sox appears blocked with Adrian Gonzalez now manning first base in Boston. Anderson could become a valuable trade chip if he continues his development.

At 21, Oscar Tejada possesses great athleticism and plenty of tools. A former shortstop who was moved to accommodate Iglesias, the second baseman has enormous potential but still needs lots of refinement. He played at High-A Salem last season and is still years away from the majors.

It's worth remembering that Ryan Kalish is still considered a prospect. He will likely continue his development at Pawtucket this season, where he will get plenty of at-bats. At this point, he projects as JD Drew's replacement in right field in 2012.

However, it would hardly be a surprise if the Red Sox move Carl Crawford to right in 2012, taking advantage of his incredible speed and range in the expansive right field of Fenway Park. That would put Kalish in the more easily played left field.

Other young prospects to keep an eye on are RHP Junichi Tazawa, 3B Will Middlebrooks, C Ryan Lavarnway, OF Bryce Brentz, RHP Brandon Workman, RHP Alex Wilson, RHP Kyle Weiland, RHP Jason Rice, OF Brandon Jacobs and 26-year-old Cuban outfielder Juan Carlos Linares, who tore it up in the Arizona Fall League.

And finally, one of the most amazing details is that Ryan Westmoreland, a five-tool player who was the Red Sox No. 1 ranked prospect at this time last year before undergoing brain surgery, is now listed at No. 30.

While that is a huge drop and may be perceived as a disappointment, the fact that Westmoreland was facing a life-threatening condition and is now back to baseball activities less than a year later is nothing short of amazing.

The gifted outfielder is still just 20-years-old and has a long road ahead of him. Most doctors and baseball insiders thought his career was done. But he is surprising everyone at present.

Westmoreland underwent surgery last March to remove enlarged blood vessels in his brain stem. Initially, it was hoped that he would simply lead a relatively normal life. But, at this point, the young man is exceeding all expectations.

Player development director Mike Hazen recently said there are no "hard line predictions on a time frame when he’s actually going to play in a game," and that "it’s still going to take a little while to get him back to where he was."

But that alone is simply stunning. It implies that Hazen sees a possibility that Westmoreland could actually return to his former high level.

"We’re seeing steady progress," said Hazen. "If you’re betting on any one person to get back and make it to that place, it’s him. You’d be amazed at the amount of drive. It’s inspiring is what it is. You just hope that he’s going to be able to take the field again one day because you know how bad he wants it.”

For various reasons, rankings often change from year-to-year, often even more quickly.

Prior to last season, Baseball America listed the Red Sox top 10 prospects as:

1. Ryan Westmoreland, OF
2. Casey Kelly, RHP
3. Josh Reddick, OF
4. Lars Anderson, 1B
5. Ryan Kalish, OF
6. Junichi Tazawa, RHP
7. Reymond Fuentes, OF
8. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
9. Jose Iglesias, SS
10. Derrik Gibson, SS/2B

Of that group, Kelly, Fuentes and Rizzo are no longer with the organization, having been traded to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez. And Derek Gibson fell out of the Top 10, as did Westmoreland and Tazawa (Tommy John), who are both recovering form surgery.

At this time next year, injury, trade or a failure to live up to potential / expectations could make the Top 10 look very different once again. Remember when Michael Bowden was a rising star?

Hopefully, Theo Epstein's scouting and player-development machine will continue churning out players the caliber of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Papelbon, Buchholz and Lester.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

2011 Preview: A Closer Look At The Red Sox Bullpen



For the most part, there will be little drama and little suspense.

The Red Sox will enter spring training with virtual locks at almost every position — except the bullpen.

Beginning just 18 days from now, the battle of the lefty relievers will present the greatest level of competition and intrigue. Currently, the Red Sox have Andrew Miller, Rich Hill, Lenny DiNardo, and Hideki Okajima battling for just one spot.

Though the Sox want lefty Felix Doubront to be a starter and to begin the year in Pawtucket, if no one else steps up, he will be strongly considered for a spot in the pen.

And there is still the possibility of another free agent being added to the mix. The agent for lefty Joe Beimel says the Sox are one of five teams pursuing his client, and that a decision could come as soon as today.

Here's a look at the current crop of lefty candidates for the Red Sox:

The 30-year-old Hill has a devastating curveball, resulting in 358 strikeouts in 399.1 career innings. But he's had trouble locating in the past. Over parts of six major league seasons, including 84 appearances and 70 starts, Hill has a career 22-20 record and a 4.82 ERA.

After spending 2004-2006 with the Red Sox, the 31-year-old DiNardo is back with the team again. The lefty has a 5.36 ERA over six seasons and, consequently, was only granted a minor league deal by the club. Undoubtedly, he is a long shot. However, he does have Major League experience and may find a role in the pen at some point this season.

DiNardo had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow last August. It remains to be seen how that affects his ability to pitch or his mechanics. DiNardo was with the A's at the time, and Oakland director of player development Keith Lieppman described the lefty as having "a miraculously quick recovery."

The 35-year-old Okajima dealt with a dead arm and back problems throughout last season, his worst in four years with the Red Sox. But it was merely a continuation of a very troubling, longer term trend.

For four consecutive seasons, Okajima's ERA has steadily risen, more than doubling from 2.22 in 2007 to 4.50 last year. Of equal concern, over that same span, the soft-tossing lefty's WHIP has also risen continually, going from 0.97 in 2007, all the way to 1.72 in 2010. Lastly, Okajima's strikeout total has also dropped for three straight seasons.

"Hello, Boston? We have a problem."

The 6'7" Miller possesses a fastball that has been clocked at 100 mph. New pitching coach Curt Young recently worked with Miller at Boston College, which can only be a good thing. Miller has long had trouble with his command, but if that powerful fastball can be harnessed, the Sox may have found a diamond in the rough.

Young is working with Miller on refining his delivery and mechanics, which clearly got out of whack since leaving college. Miller was named Baseball America National Player of the Year, and won the Roger Clemens Award as the nation's top collegiate pitcher, in 2006.

That same year, Miller was the sixth pick in the draft and was rushed to the majors after just three weeks. He was given no time to develop and it showed; Miller posted a 5.84 ERA in 79 appearances over parts of five seasons. However, he is still just 25 years old.

With five years of service time, Miller is out of options. Yet, he accepted a minor league contract with the Red Sox, so he can start the season in the minors, if necessary.

However, once he joins the big league club, he must remain with the team. Miller would first need to pass through waivers before being allowed to go back to the minors.

If Miller doesn't make the team out of spring training, he will likely begin the season as a starter in Pawtucket and continue his development.

There will be plenty of competition for just one spot, and that will be one of the most interesting things to monitor in Fort Meyers when spring training opens on February 15th.

Currently, the bullpen looks like this: Jonathan Papelbon, closer; Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks, setup; Dan Wheeler, Matt Albers, and Scott Atchison, middle; Tim Wakefield, long relief/situational.

That's seven relievers right there, before the Sox have even determined who their lefty is. Given that the club will only break camp with seven relievers, an excess already exists in the reliever core, even before a much-needed lefty wins the final spot.

Something's got to give, and somebody's got to go. The Sox will undoubtedly carry a lefty, which makes it a good bet that either Albers or Atchison won't make the team out of spring training.

As they say, stay tuned...

Monday, January 24, 2011

For David Ortiz, 2011 Contract Now Looks Like Grand Larceny



Some potential Hall of Famers have had a hard time finding work this winter, while others have had to settle for rather humbling deals.

The Twins signed 40-year-old DH Jim Thome to a one-year, $3 million deal. And Tampa came to terms with 38-year-old DH Manny Ramirez on a one-year deal for just $2 million.

Ramirez made $45 million over the past two seasons. That's quite a pay cut.

Thome had 25 homers and a 1.039 OPS over 340 plate appearances last season. Ramirez had a .298 average and an .870 OPS over 320 PAs.

The A's signed 36-year-old DH Hideki Matsui, to a one-year, $4.25 million deal.

Matsui batted .274 with 21 homers and 84 RBI for the Angels last season. Though not a HOF candidate, Matsui can still produce and the A's got him at an affordable price.

Meanwhile, 35-year-old free agent DH Vladimir Guerrero is still seeking a job.

Of the 11 players last season who hit at least .300, had 25 homers and 100 RBI, Guerrero had the fewest strikeouts (60). Yet no one wants him?

On the other hand, David Ortiz had an .899 OPS over 600 PAs last season, and received a one-year, $12.5 million extension from the Red Sox.

After two years of precipitous decline, the 35-year-old Ortiz brought his average back up to .270 in 2010, and led the team with 32 homers and 102 RBI.

Yet, given the recent developments in the DH market, it looks like Ortiz held a gun to the Red Sox and robbed them blind.

Remember those stories about him possibly being upset about having to take a one-year deal? That seems highly doubtful now. To the contrary, he must feel like one very lucky man.

From 2005-08, Ortiz had a strikeout percentage of 16.4 and a home run percentage of 6.2. However, over the last two seasons, Ortiz's strikeout percentage leapt to 22.6 percent, while his home run percentage dropped to 4.9 percent.

Ortiz struck out a career-high 145 times last season, eclipsing his previous career-high of 134, set in 2009. Setting career highs in strikeouts in back-to-back seasons, at his age, is an ominous sign.

Over his first five seasons in Boston, Ortiz batted .302. But those days are now long gone. Over the past three seasons, his batting average has dropped to just .257.

Without question, Ortiz is a player in decline and he will be grossly overpaid this season. He is probably worth $5 million per year at this point, but the Red Sox didn't want to deal with a malcontent in their clubhouse or on their bench this season.

If Ortiz has another year that mirrors the last, the Red Sox will feel satisfied with his high price tag. However, if he underperforms, they'll have to take solace in the fact that it's only a one-year deal.

Ortiz should feel grateful for his current pact. Never again will he merit a contract with such a high annual value. He will be lucky to make half his $12 million salary in 2012.

But the slugger's place in Red Sox history seems quite secure, another reason for him to feel content.

With 291 homers as a member of the Red Sox, this season Ortiz will join Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice and Dwight Evans as the only Red Sox players with 300 home runs. That's some pretty fine company.

And, with 932 RBI as a Red Sox, he could become just the sixth player to drive in 1,000 runs with the team (Yastrzemski, Williams, Rice, Evans and Doerr).

Additionally, with 349 career homers (as a member of the Twins and Red Sox), Ortiz has a reasonable shot at 400 for his career. He needs to average about 25 homers over the next two years to reach the mark, which is certainly possible.

Unlike his contemporaries at the DH spot, Ortiz didn't have to take a pay cut and resort to one-year deal with a new team this winter.

The pay cut will come in 2012, but hopefully it will be with Boston. If Ortiz performs up to par, that would be the best thing for both him and the Red Sox.

Friday, January 07, 2011

For Red Sox, June Draft Will Be Rich


The Rangers signing of Adrian Beltre is good news for the Red Sox. The Sox will get Texas' first round pick in the June draft, No. 26 overall, as compensation for losing Beltre, plus a supplemental first rounder.

If Beltre had signed with the Angels or Athletics, whose first-round picks are protected, the return would have been only a supplemental first rounder and a second rounder.

The only way this could change is if the Rangers subsequently sign a more highly ranked Type A free agent than Beltre, such as closer Rafael Soriano. In that case, the Rangers' first-round pick would go to Tampa Bay. Texas has been rumored to be interested in Soriano this offseason.

However, Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reports that the Rangers do not plan to pursue Soriano.

All of this has worked out quite nicely for the Red Sox. This is the last year that the draft will exist in its current form, and it is projected to be one of the best drafts in years. The 2012 draft is likely to have strict rules (like the NBA and NFL) to control salaries. So the 2011 draft will be especially valuable.

Under the current MLB agreement, there are no fixed rules to determine the financial slotting of draft picks; there are only parameters, which are often ignored. In the past, the Sox have selected hard-to-sign players after the first round by throwing large amounts of money at them. Smaller market teams cannot afford to do that.

So the Sox did quite well in stocking up on draft picks while they could. This will allow them to rebuild their farm system, which took a hit when the Sox traded three top prospects for Adrian Gonzalez.

Boston now has the No. 19 (from the Tigers for Victor Martinez) and No. 26 picks. Though they lost their own first-round selection (No. 24) to the Rays for signing Carl Crawford, the Red Sox will ultimately end up with six of the first 80 or so picks.

So, the Red Sox turned Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, three prospects and their own first round pick into Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and four draft picks. Beltre and Martinez would have cost them at least $27 million in 2011. Gonzalez and Crawford will get $26.3 million. That's a well-orchestrated offseason.

The Sox, publicly at least, expressed an interest in retaining Beltre. However, during the winter meetings, it was reported that that they would go no to more than four years, $52 million for him. That's a long way from the six years, $96 million he got from Texas (have the Rangers gone insane?).

The Sox will certainly miss Beltre. His 79 extra-base hits last season were the most ever by a Red Sox third baseman.

Over the last two seasons, the top four Red Sox OPS leaders were: Kevin Youkilis, .967 in 853 at-bats; Jason Bay, .921 in 531 at-bats; Adrian Beltre, .919 in 589 at-bats; and Victor Martinez, .865 in 704 at-bats.

The Red Sox are now without three of those four talented players. Yet, the acquisitions of Gonzalez and Crawford should compensate for the losses of Beltre and Martinez this offseason.

Ultimately, the Sox got younger and improved their prospects in a critical draft that is just five months away.

This offseason has gone about as well as anyone could have hoped. As a result of the moves made this winter, the Red Sox appear to have set themselves up to be contenders for years to come.

Sunday, January 02, 2011

Red Sox Rotation Key To Success In 2011



In order to be the World Series contenders that many people expect them to be this season, the Red Sox will need all five of their starters to pitch up to their potential.

Last season, Red Sox starting pitching was inconsistent, at best. Despite the rash of injuries, poor starting pitching—more than anything else—was the reason for the Sox' disappointing season.

In 2011, the Red Sox will return an intact rotation, comprised of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Daiuske Matsuzaka.

Without question, Lester and Buchholz have become the staff aces and are among the elite pitchers in the game. Both pitchers are only 26 years old, still improving, and should contend for the Cy Young this season.

Lester finished fourth in the AL Cy Young Award voting after going 19-9 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 225 strikeouts last season. He overcame a slow start (0-2, 8.44 ERA) and finished the season as arguably the best pitcher in the AL, posting a 19-7 record, 2.81 ERA and 9.89 strikeouts per nine innings.

For his part, Buchholz went 17-7 with a phenomenal 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

However, after that young, dynamic duo, the rest of the Sox' starters were huge disappointments. Beckett, Lackey and Matsuzaka combined for over $39 million dollars in salary and an unimpressive 4.84 ERA. For comparison's sake, the entire payrolls of the 2010 Pirates and Padres were the same as, or less than, what the Boston trio made.

Beckett and Matsuzaka fell prey to injuries and never found the form that had made them successful in the past. Lackey was hardly the pitcher the Red Sox were expecting when they signed him last winter and had a lackluster first season in Boston.

Beckett posted a career high 5.78 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Over the previous three years with the Red Sox, he was 49-23 with a 3.71 ERA and sub 1.20 WHIP.

Lackey posted a 4.40 ERA, the first time his average exceeded 4.00 since 2004. And his 1.42 WHIP was tied for the highest of his career (2003).

Matsuzaka went 9-6 with a 4.69 ERA. Though he had moments of brilliance (like his one-hitter against the Phillies in May), they were far too infrequent and he typically looked like a shadow of the pitcher who went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2008.



Though the Red Sox let Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre walk, two of their premier hitters in 2010, the offense should be at least as good (if not better) with the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. But after scoring 818 runs last season (good enough for second in the AL), offense was not the Red Sox shortcoming.

And the additions of Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler, should improve the Red Sox bullpen markedly this season.

For the Red Sox to win the AL Pennant, and ultimately the World Series, all five of their starters must stay healthy and pitch their absolute best in 2011. All of the starters need to consistently make quality starts and go deep into games, taking pressure off the bullpen.

As we saw last season, the Red Sox cannot get by on offense alone. Amongst AL teams, the Red Sox were first in total bases, second in homers, second in runs, second in slugging and third in on-base percentage.

Yet, the Red Sox won just 89 games and missed the playoffs. It was just the second time since 2002 that the Sox failed to win 90 games, and just the second in 13 seasons that they failed to finish in first or second place in the AL East.

All that offense in 2010 couldn't overcome the disappointing efforts of three-fifths of the rotation.

Red Sox starting pitching allowed 517 runs in 2010, fifth worst in the AL. Their 1.35 WHIP was also fifth worst in the AL. Additionally, Red Sox starters allowed a league-high 383 walks, well above the league average of 330, and hit the most batters in the league (45).

The upside is that Sox starters struck out a league-high 833 batters, held opposing batters to a .254 average (fourth-best in the AL), and gave up just 89 home runs, lowest in the league.

Unless the rotation repeats the latter statistics and not the former, the Red Sox new lineup and bullpen won't matter much.

On paper, at least, the Red Sox appear to be the team to beat in 2011. But now they actually have to go out, play the games, and win. There are always surprises. Who picked the Giants to be World Series Champions at this time last year?

It's long been said that pitching wins championships. Without it, the Red Sox may be just another in a long list of overpaid, underachieving teams through baseball history.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Red Sox Acquisition of Dan Wheeler Should Complete Pen

As difficult as it is to believe, last season Red Sox relievers pitched among the fewest innings in the American League. Even though Sox' starters went deep into games, the bullpen was still overmatched far too often.

So, the Sox' relievers' troubles cannot be blamed on being overworked. The relatively light workload should have been a benefit, and yet it wasn't. That's why Theo Epstein was so determined so rectify those bullpen issues entering this offseason.

In signing former Rays' reliever Dan Wheeler, the reworking of the Sox' bullpen seems to be complete. The Sox operated with caution, only giving Wheeler a one-year deal, not the three-year pact that other set-up men have gotten this offseason.

Though Wheeler ended up with an option that vests in 2012 if he makes 65 appearances next season, the Sox have to be satisfied. If Wheeler is pitching consistently, obviously it will indicate he's having success.

The fact that Wheeler's workload has declined in each of the last three years (70, 69 and 64 appearances) has to be viewed positively. Hopefully, it means he’ll have a fresh arm in 2011.

Wheeler struck out 8.6 batters per nine innings last season, a fantastic rate. And his WHIP was a lowly 1.075. Yet, in the two previous years it was an even better 0.995 and 0.87, which are simply outstanding numbers. That means less than one batter per inning, on average, reached base when Wheeler pitched.

Apparently, the Sox still have an offer out to Brain Fuentes. However, the lefty wants a multi-year deal as a closer.

At present, the Sox have lefties Rich Hill and Andrew Miller on their roster, both of whom will be given an opportunity to earn a spot in the pen.

Regardless, the Sox may do all right against lefties as presently constructed.

Last season, Jenks held lefthanded batters to a .648 OPS; for his career, the number is .617. Bard, meanwhile, ranked second in the American League among all qualifying righthanders by holding lefthanded batters to just a .462 OPS. And during his career, Papelbon has been one of the most consistent relievers in baseball against lefthanders, holding them to a .585 OPS.

Red Sox fans have to feel good about this bullpen going into 2011. On paper, at least, it is a marked improvement over last year's relief squad.

Friday, December 17, 2010

Red Sox Bullpen Being Remade In Rapid Order

The Red Sox may have shored up their bullpen Thursday with the addition of former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks.

Jenks had a career-high 4.44 ERA last season, but he had 27 saves and struck out 61 batters in 52.2 innings, a phenomenal strikeout ratio. Jenks' fastball has been clocked at over 100 mph. That's a serious power pitcher.

Both Jonathan Papelbon and Jenks will be 30 next season. According to Buster Olney, Jenks will be given a chance to compete for the position of closer when Papelbon is eligible for free agency after next season.

The pressure will be on Papelbon with both Jenks and Daniel Bard waiting behind him. The presence of two possible successors may bring out the best in the Sox longtime closer.

Over six seasons with the White Sox, Jenks was 14-18 with a 3.40 ERA and 334 strikeouts in 341.2 innings. He had 173 saves in those six seasons, ranking second in franchise history.

Jenks had back-to-back 40-save seasons for the White Sox in 2006 and 2007, but posted career lows in saves (27), innings (52 2/3) and ERA (4.44) last season.

The upside is that Jenks averaged 10.4 strikeouts per 9 innings in 2010, his highest ratio since his rookie season (11.4).

In rapid succession, the Sox have added old friend Lenny DiNardo, Matt Albers, Rich Hill and Andrew Miller, whom the club traded for last month and then abruptly non-tendered.

DiNardo was with the Red Sox from 2004-06, going 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA in 43 appearances as a reliever and spot starter. The lefty has a 5.36 ERA over six seasons. Given his ERA, it's no wonder the Sox only signed him to a minor league deal. He may never see Fenway again, unless he's sitting in the stands.

The 27-year-old Albers is a bit of a project. The righty was 5-3 with a 4.52 ERA in 62 games for the Orioles in 2010, striking out 49 and walking 34 in 75 2/3 innings. The combination of the poor ERA and the high walk-per-strikeout ratio make Albers a bit of a long shot to make the team out of spring training.

Over parts of the last five seasons in the majors, mostly as a reliever, Albers has a 5.11 ERA. And his career strikeout numbers (5.8 per nine innings) are fairly unimpressive as well.

Albers' strength is his career 1.05 groundball-to-flyball rate, which is roughly 33 percent better than league average. In 2010, that jumped to a 1.33 groundball-to-flyball ratio, the sixth-highest mark in the AL (min. 50 innings).

The Sox also re-signed Milton native Rich Hill, granting him another minor league contact. The 30-year-old veteran has a career 22-20 record and 4.82 ERA in 84 career appearances (70 starts), spanning parts of six major league seasons. The lefty has posted 358 strikeouts in 399.1 innings.

After trading Dustin Richardson for Miller in November, the Sox chose not to offer the 6'7" lefty a contract, making him a free agent. The 25-year-old was rushed to the majors by Florida, making his big league debut just three weeks after being drafted.

Though Miller needed time for more development in the minors, he was out of options. Had the Sox tendered him, it would have mandated an assignment to the big league team. Considering his 5.84 ERA in 79 appearances over parts of five seasons, that was not a given in Boston.

By non-tendering Miller, the Red Sox were able to give him a minor league contract and avoid arbitration, which might have meant a raise on the $1.8 million he made last season with the Marlins.

Miller will get an invitation to big league camp and the opportunity to compete for a spot in the Red Sox' bullpen.

The Sox pen is now composed of righties Papelbon, Bard, Jenks, Scott Atchison, and Tim Wakefield, plus lefties Miller and Felix Dubront. Additionally, righties Hill, Albers, Matt Fox, Michael Bowden and Robert Coello are also in the mix.

Aside from Jenks, the one thing all of the new additions have in common is that they do not have strong track records or histories of great success at the major league level. That's a problem that could come back to haunt the Red Sox next season. And even Jenks has declined in recent years.

The Red Sox bullpen still seems to be one piece away from completion. The club may yet seek a proven lefty specialist, like Brian Fuentes, before they can consider this work in progress to be completed. At this point, the reconstruction of the bullpen still appears to be a work in progress.

However, the addition of all the new faces, plus the absence of Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen, will certainly give the Red Sox pen a very different look next season.

That's a good start. It seems they're almost there.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Despite Major Offseason Moves, Red Sox Toughest Task Is Rebuilding Bullpen

After the way that the Red Sox' season unceremoniously ended, it was a safe bet that management felt determined to improve the team this offseason.

For just the second time since 2002 (aka the John Henry era), the Red Sox failed to win at least 90 games.

As a result, for just the second time in 13 seasons, the Red Sox did not finish in first or second place in the American League East. Playing in a city that now has much greater expectations (as a result of two World Series Championships in the last decade), that simply wouldn't suffice.

So, this offseason was sure to be a time of big, critical decisions for the Red Sox front office.

The team seemed poised to lose a couple of their better hitters in Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, leaving the prospect that Theo Epstein and Co. might have to rebuild the offense.

Though the Red Sox scored 818 runs in 2010, which was good enough for second in the AL, it was the fewest runs they'd scored since 2001.

But beyond that, some of the Red Sox' hard-earned luster seemed to have been lost in 2010.

For the first time in eight years, the Red Sox didn't lead the majors in local TV ratings. According to FoxSports.com, the Sox finished tied for fifth, behind the Cardinals, Twins, Phillies, Reds and tied with the Rays.

The Sox' ratings on NESN fell 36.6 percent from '09 to '10. Only one team, the Cubs, had a larger percentage dropoff on local cable. The Cubs, though, had a less severe decline than the Sox in their 70 over-the-air network games.

All of those problems were likely solved in a remarkable 72-hour period when the Red Sox traded for 28-year-old first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, and then signed 29-year-old free agent left fielder Carl Crawford.

The newly constructed Red Sox will be an offensive juggernaut, capable of producing runs in abundance. They now have a couple of guys (Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury) that can score from first. And if Josh Beckett and John Lackey bounce back to form, the Red Sox are now the odds on favorite to win the AL Pennant.

Over seven seasons with the Rangers and Padres, Gonzalez hit .284 and averaged 32 home runs and 99 RBI. He is a three-time All-Star who, in five full-time seasons with San Diego, has 161 homers and 501 RBIs.

Simply put, Gonzalez is one of very best hitters in the game, with a left-handed swing that seems tailor-made for Fenway. Given the combination of the shallower right field fence next season, plus his ability to hit the other way, Gonzalez should absolutely rake in Boston. Additionally, Gonzalez is a two-time Gold Glove winner.

Crawford is a four-time All-Star who brings an intriguing combination of speed, power, and Gold Glove defense. He is one of only two players in Major League history (Rogers Hornsby) to raise his average and home run totals in five consecutive seasons (2002-2006).

The left fielder hit .307 with 19 home runs, 90 RBIs, 13 triples, and 47 stolen bases last season and is the youngest player in history to amass 100 homers, 400 steals, and 100 triples. The 2010 season was a career-year for Crawford, and he is just now entering his prime.

With two bold moves, the Red Sox simultaneously got younger and better defensively. And they—presumably—now have both players secured for the long term.

Theo Epstein summed up the Red Sox offseason additions succinctly: “Adding players the caliber of Gonzalez and Crawford, who are 28 and 29 years old, respectively, and having them through their prime years makes a ton of sense for us. We’re not going to apologize for it.’’

But offense was not the Red Sox problem in 2010. The team lost substantial portions of its lineup (Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, Kevn Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Cameron) for long stretches of the season and still managed to win 89 games.

More than anything else, the Red Sox' bullpen was their key weakness last season. The team lost far too many games in the late innings due to bullpen implosions.

The Red Sox were 22-26 in games decided by one run, and 6-12 in extra inning games. If not for the pen, the Sox' season might have been very different.

The Sox finished 12th out of 14 AL teams in relief ERA, at 4.24. Only the Orioles and Royals had higher relief ERAs. The Sox were next-to-last in blown saves, with 22. And they also were 13th in save percentage, at 67 percent.

It's worth noting that the top four teams in relief ERA (Rays - 3.33; Rangers - 3.38; Yankees - 3.47; and Twins - 3.49) all made the playoffs.

The bullpen is an area that the Red Sox need to rebuild on an almost annual basis, which says a lot about the inconsistency of relief pitchers in general. Middle relievers are the worst of the lot; they are neither good enough to start, nor good enough to close.

The majority of relievers are journeymen who lack consistency from month-to-month, much less year-to-year. But without a solid, reliable bullpen, no team makes it to the playoffs, much less the World Series.

That is the reality facing Theo Epstein and his minions.

The Red Sox currently have Jonathan Papelbon as their closer, who had 7 losses and 8 blown saves last season, both career highs. Papelbon's 8 blown saves lead the AL and his 3.90 ERA more than doubled from 2009.

Papelbon's primary set-up man will once again be Daniel Bard, and Tim Wakefield projects to be the long-reliever and occasional spot-starter. The Red Sox need a lefty out of the pen and, at this point, young Felix Dubront may assume that role.

That leaves three open spots, assuming the Sox go with a 12-man staff again. Look for two of those spots to be filled by trade or free agency and the final opening to be won in a battle among assorted journeymen and in-house candidates, such as Scott Atchison, Michael Bowden, Robert Coello, Matt Fox, Rich Hill, and the newly acquired Matt Albers.

The Red Sox also are at least pondering bringing back lefty Hideki Okajima, plus lefty Andrew Miller and righty Taylor Buchholz, the later two of whom the Sox recently acquired and then curiously chose to non-tender.

The Red Sox have feelers, and in some case offers, out to a number of lefties, such as Brian Fuentes, Ron Mahay, Arthur Rhodes, and Pedro Feliciano.

Though Scott Downs, Joaquin Benoit and Matt Guerrier recently signed three-year deals with the Angels, Tigers and Dodgers respectively, it is unlikely that the Red Sox will go to that length with any reliever—unless he is one of the best in the game. But those types tend to be closers, and the Sox are set in that department through 2011.

As GM, Theo Epstein has given only one three-year deal to a reliever — closer Keith Foulke, following the 2003 season. Foulke had one very good season, in which he helped the Sox win the 2004 World Series. However, in 2005 and 2006 Foulke missed substantial time due to injuries, performed poorly, and ultimately lost his job to Papelbon.

However, the Sox have signed relievers to two-year deals that included vesting options. Both Alan Embree and Julian Tavarez were signed to such deals. Embree made enough appearances for his option to vest. Tavarez did not, but he had his option picked up after emerging as a valuable swingman in 2006 and 2007. Yet, both pitchers ended up being designated for assignment in the third year of their deals.

So it's easy to understand Epstein's reluctance to get involved in long-term deals with relief pitchers that are inherently unreliable. There's a reason these guys float from team to team, year after year. They often provide little relief and lots of headaches.

Ultimately, building a consistent, dependable bullpen may prove to be Theo Epstein's greatest offseason task, despite his rather bold and splashy moves to this point.

Injuries aside, the pen was the Sox' Achilles Heel in 2010, and they can't let this deep roster, loaded with talent, go to waste with a bullpen that once again melts down under pressure, like it did last year.

Thursday, December 02, 2010

Jason Varitek Signing Gives Red Sox Flexibility For Bigger Moves

Jason Varitek will be back for his 15th season with the Red Sox in 2011, after agreeing to a one-year, $2 million contract that includes $300,000 in incentives based on playing time.

Varitek got off to a hot start over the first two months of last season, with seven homers and a 1.024 OPS. However, he hit just .163 after that great start and missed substantial time due to a foot injury.

The veteran catcher was on the DL from July 2 through September 6, and was limited to just 39 games. He finished the season batting .232, with seven homers and 16 RBIs.

Despite turning 39 in April, Varitek is still an able back-up and the ideal mentor to 25-year-old Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Simply put, he is the right man for the job.

Clearly Saltalamacchia agrees. After hearing the news, the young catcher texted, "That's great. Thrilled he's coming back.''

Varitek was named Red Sox captain after the 2004 season. He was granted that distinction because of his leadership skills, his unmatched preparation, and the respect that his teammates—and even opposing players—have for him.

Among active catchers, Varitek ranks third in home runs (182), third in walks (593) fourth in RBI (721), fourth in doubles (296), fourth in extra-base hits (491), fourth in runs (632), fourth in total bases (2,126) and sixth in hits (1,258).

Both Varitek and Saltalamacchia are switch-hitters and should create an effective platoon. Varitek's career line against lefties is .279/.359/.471 and Saltalamacchia's career line against righthanders is .273/.343/.422. If they reach those averages in 2011, the Red Sox will get well above league-average production compared to other catchers.

And, by paying Varitek just $2 million and Saltalamacchia just $750,000 next season, the Sox have a lot more money for some combination of Adrian Beltre/Carl Crawford/ Jayson Werth.

The Red Sox will clearly spend money this offseason, as they always do. They just want to spend it wisely and in the areas of greatest need, with an eye on the prospects who may be ready to assume a big league role in the next two, or so, years.

Since John Henry and Co. purchased the club in 2002, the Sox have been number two in payroll expenditures, spending $1.145 billion. That's second only to the Yankees, who have outspent the Red Sox by 46.6 percent, at $1.679 billion (thanks to Peter Abraham over at Boston.com for doing that research).

The Red Sox will no longer be paying Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez and even Julio Lugo in 2011. So they have the resources to re-sign Adrian Beltre and add either Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth, in addition.

Bringing back Jason Varitek at such a team-friendly price, and pairing him with Saltalamacchia—who isn't even arbitration eligible—frees up plenty of resources for the Red Sox to make a much bigger long-term impact for their ball club.

As always, Theo Epstein has his eyes not only on next season, but the next few seasons.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Marco Scutaro Is A Bargain The Red Sox Should Hold Onto

There is persistent talk this offseason that the Red Sox may shop Marco Scutaro and that, at the least, they will receive inquiries from teams in need of a shortstop. The Giants, Padres, Orioles and the Pirates all fit that description.

Scutaro would be very affordable for any team, and he has only one year remaining on his current deal. He will make just $5 million next season, and there is a $6 million club option/$3 million player option, with a $1.5 million buyout, for 2012. That makes him a steal.

And he's more than just affordable.

Scutaro led all Major League shortstops with 38 doubles, even though he played most the season with a bum shoulder. The next closest shortstop had 33 doubles. And among Major League shortstops, Scutaro was second with 632 at-bats, second with 174 hits and third with 92 runs. He was also sixth in total bases, sixth in walks, 10th in RBI, and 17th in strike outs.

By these measures, Scutaro was among the best shortstops in all of baseball last season.

Scutaro's .965 fielding percentage was 12th best in baseball among shortstops with at least 500 total chances. Most of his 18 errors were throwing errors, the product of that troubled shoulder. The inflammation in Scutaro's right rotator cuff got so bad that it forced his move from shortstop to second base for most of September. All indications are that he will be healthier next season.

The bottom line is that Scutaro is a steal at what the Red Sox are paying him, and he is a gamer. The guy doesn't take days off; he just goes out and plays hard. He is the perfect bridge to either Jose Iglesias or Yamaico Navarro.

The Red Sox will be well-served to have Marco Scutaro as their shortstop in 2011, and perhaps even 2012.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Remove Dodgers From List of Potential Daisuke Matsuzaka Suitors

Earlier this offseason, there had been speculation that the Dodgers may have interest in trading for Daisuke Matsuzaka, and that the Red Sox would be even more interested in obtaining Dodgers' outfielders Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier.

Such a scenario seems to have been all but eliminated this week as the Dodgers reached an agreement with free agent Jon Garland.

The right-hander will join Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly to round out the Dodgers rotation.

Los Angeles came to terms with Garland on a very affordable $5 million, one-year, incentive-laden contract, which includes a club option that could be worth $16 million over two seasons.

Meanwhile, Matsuzaka is owed $10 million in each of the next two seasons.

Considering the similarities between the two pitchers, the Dodgers seem to have gotten themselves a relative steal.

Garland went 14-12 with a 3.47 ERA in 200 innings for the Padres in 2010. Matsuzaka went 9-6 with a 4.69 ERA in 153.2 innings for the Red Sox.

It's worth noting that Matsuzaka pitched in the tougher AL East, facing deeper lineups that wear pitchers out. Meanwhile, Garland pitched in the weaker NL West, which is dominated by pitcher-friendly ballparks.

That said, Garland is an innings eater, something that Matsuzaka simply isn't.

Garland has pitched at least 190 innings every season since 2002, his first full year as a starter. That's a nine-year streak.

Matsuzaka, on the other hand, has pitched at least 190 innings just once during his four years in the majors (204.2 in 2007). His next best effort was 167.2 innings in 2008.

Garland has also posted double-digit win totals in every season since 2002. Matsuzaka has accomplished that in just two of his four seasons.

Looked at from those vantage points, the Dodgers made a much wiser move by signing Garland than trading for Matsuzaka. In addition to the cheaper cost, the Dodgers didn't need to surrender a player to obtain Garland, as they would have for Matsuzaka.

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, and any of their fans who have grown tired of waiting for Matsuzaka to live up to his much-heralded hype, one potential trade partner has been eliminated.

It's reasonable to assume that Matsuzaka would fare better in the National League, with its weaker lineups. And it's been speculated that Matsuzaka might be more inclined to waive his no-trade clause to a West Coast team. There is the assumption that he would like to be closer to his native Japan.

Yet, given the 5,500 miles between the West Coast and Japan (not to mention crossing multiple time-zones), Matsuzaka may be just as unlikely to get back to Japan during the season as he is in Boston.

The one exception might be the All Star break, which Matsuzaka is as likely to enjoy as most other players.

Matsuzaka was originally projected as a No. 1 or No. 2 starter for the Red Sox. The reality is that, if not traded, he will be the team's No. 5 starter going into the 2011 season. In all but one of his four seasons, Matsuzaka has posted an ERA of at least 4.40.

Matsuzaka has been an enigma, at times showing flashes of brilliance, while at others exhibiting a maddening futility. It is not uncommon for him to have thrown in excess of 100 pitches by the fifth inning. His lack of command often results in consistently deep counts and excessive walk totals.

That said, he may be the best No. 5 starter in baseball. Even at $10 million per season, the Red Sox can easily afford him for two more years.

However, if any team makes an attractive enough offer, the Red Sox will surely ask Matsuzaka if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause.

At this point, that just might be the best scenario for all parties.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Losing Martinez Saves Red Sox Money, Creates Big Hole In Lineup

The Red Sox lost Victor Martinez to the Tigers because they were outbid by $8 million dollars over four years. That amounts to just $2 million per season.

While the Red Sox were willing to offer Martinez the four-year deal he wanted, they weren't willing to go to $50 million for him. But the Tigers were.

The Red Sox made two separate offers to Martinez; a three-year deal worth $36 million and a four-year deal worth $42 million.

Even though Martinez and his agents made it clear to the Red Sox on Monday night that he was prepared to accept another offer elsewhere, the Red Sox held their ground. In the end, Martinez accepted Detroit's four-year, $50 million offer.

Even the Orioles, who offered just $2 million less, outbid the Red Sox.

The Red Sox were unwilling to go to four years, $52 million with Johnny Damon, which ended up being a regrettable decision by Theo Epstein. They can only hope that their decision with Martinez doesn't end up being similarly regrettable in the next couple of years.

The Red Sox now have a gaping hole in the middle of the order that needs to be filled by opening day. Fortunately, that is more than four months away. There is time to find a suitable, or superior, replacement.

But one thing is for sure; the Red Sox won't get the same kind of production from their catcher next season, no matter who it is. Martinez is one of the two or three best offensive catchers in the game today, behind Joe Mauer, and along with Brian McCann.

Martinez is a career .300 hitter, which is especially impressive for a catcher. Excluding the 2008 season (in which he was injured), Martinez has averaged 18 homers and 83 RBI each year since he became a full-time player in 2004.

While those are nice numbers for a catcher, the RBI and home run totals are not particularly striking. In fact, Martinez has hit 25 homers just once and driven in 100 RBI just three times in his eight full seasons in the majors. As a first baseman or DH, those numbers would be rather pedestrian.

But Martinez's offense wasn't the Red Sox' primary concern. His age (32 next month) and defensive shortcomings were the things that gave them pause. Martinez threw out only 27 of 99 base-stealers last season.

And the Sox also had questions about Martinez's game-calling skills. Red Sox pitchers had a 4.28 earned run average throwing to Martinez. With other catchers, Sox pitchers had a 4.05 ERA. Additionally, opponents had a .738 OPS with Martinez behind the plate — just above the American League average — and a .706 OPS with other catchers.

The Red Sox felt that Martinez would only remain an effective catcher for perhaps the next two seasons and that he would then need to shift to first base or DH after that. While they felt he would be worth the price of a top-notch catcher for the first two years of the contract, they didn't feel he'd be worth $12.5 million per season beyond that.

However, it's interesting that the Sox are willing to pay David Ortiz (who can’t hit lefties) $12.5 million to DH when the going rate is $6 million — tops. They’ll also wind up paying Jonathan Papelbon nearly $12 million next season, despite his regression. And J.D. Drew will will continue to be wildly overpaid in 2011, making another $14 million.

Yet, the Red Sox deemed that Martinez — a switch-hitter who crushes left-handed pitching — was not worth $12.5 million per year for the next four years.

The money they've saved can be spent elsewhere to address other needs. While the Sox may go with an inexpensive platoon of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek behind the plate, they will need to make up for loss of Martinez's offense somehow. And should they also lose Adrian Beltre, there will then be two gaping holes in the lineup.

If Saltalamacchia ever delivers on the promise that so many scouts and talent evaluators have seen in him for so long, he will be quite a bargain for the Sox. His big body and swing make 18 homers and 83 RBI seem within reason. That would make up for the loss of Martinez for a whole lot less money.

The names Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Justin Upton and Adrian Gonzalez have all been mentioned as potential Red Sox targets. The reality is the the Red Sox may now need two of them — or two hitters of the same caliber — to maintain their high-powered offense.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Red Sox Let V-Mart Walk; Bigger Moves Must Be In Store

The Red Sox certainly had their chances with Victor Martinez. It seemed that his heart was in Boston all along.

After the final game of last season, Martinez made it clear that he wanted to remain in Boston.

"It’s no question, eyes closed, come back to here. This is a place that I really want to be," said Martinez.

Yet, it seems that Martinez wanted to return to the Red Sox more than they wanted him back. Once again, as is customary, the Sox put a value on a player and refused to exceed it.

Instead, Martinez will play for the Tigers next year and beyond, after agreeing to a four-year, $50 million deal with Detroit earlier today.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that that the Red Sox offered Martinez either three years and $36 million, or four years and $42 million.

But Martinez wanted a four-year deal and apparently the Red Sox didn't want him under contract for that long. After all, they offered him a mere two-year deal during the 2010 season. In the end, it seems that long term security meant more to Martinez than anything else.

Reportedly, Martinez was offered four years and $48 million by the Orioles and three years and $48 million by the White Sox. It's odd that he took $12.5 million a year from Detroit and passed up $16 million a year from Chicago. If that's accurate, Martinez could have made more money by hitting free agency again (albeit for a lot less money) in three years instead of four.

Though $12.5 million per season seems like a reasonable sum for a catcher of Matinez's stature, the Red Sox seem to believe that Martinez won't remain a capable catcher for more than two years, or so. And the Red Sox never seem comfortable committing themselves to long term deals with players in their 30s.

As a catcher, Martinez is an outstanding hitter. But as a first baseman or DH, he is far closer to the league average and would be overpaid at $12.5 million a year.

Martinez, who turns 32 on Dec. 23, is a below-average runner and below-average catcher. No doubt, he's an outstanding hitter and teammate. But his numbers, if he were a full-time first baseman, would rank him only slightly ahead of say, free agent Adam LaRoche.

The Red Sox clearly saw this possibility developing when they made a trade with Texas in July for 25-year-old catcher Jarrod Saltalamachia. At a minimum, that move was an insurance policy against today's news.

It also seems to signal that the Sox feel comfortable going forward with Saltalamachia at catcher next season, perhaps bringing back Jason Varitek as his backup and mentor. Both players are switch hitters, but Saltalamacchia is better against righthanders and Varitek is far better against lefthanders.

The Red Sox decision not to re-sign Martinez frees up a lot of money to sign a couple of free agents. The Sox still have roughly $40 million to spend if they are to reach their payroll of last season, and last week Chairman Tom Werner said the club may in fact exceed that amount.

It's reasonable to assume the Sox will be aggressive in the free agent market and in other efforts to improve a team that missed the playoffs last season. The team's NESN ratings declined in 2010, and it seems necessary to instill some excitement in the fans this offseason.

It's a good bet that the Sox will make serious runs at Carl Crawford and Jason Werth, though they may not want to go to six and five years, respectively.

Once again, the Red Sox will place a value on each player and they will not go above it. They will not let emotion get in the way and they won't get into unwise bidding wars, especially when it comes to players in their 30s.

The current compensation system is a mess. Players often hit free agency in their 30s and expect to be paid for past performance. But most guys start slowing down in their mid-30s, just when their contracts are at their peak. The Red Sox are very wary of this.

Players should instead be paid according to current performance, starting in their rookie year. If you excel, you get paid. If you don't, you don't get paid. Older players shouldn't be getting paid in excess of younger players just because of past performance.

But, at least for the present, this is the system that the Red Sox and everyone else will have to live with. The Sox will work within the confines of this system and improve their team.

When it comes to the maneuverings of Theo Epstein, expect the unexpected. Something big may be in store. He clearly wants a young star who is entering his prime, and who the Sox can keep for the long term while he is most productive.

A big trade may be as likely as a free agent signing, and it may also come in addition to such a signing. Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Upton are the most obvious candidates, but Theo could surprise us all.

One way or the other, expect the Red Sox to make a splash and improve a team that did not finish in first or second place in the AL East for just the second time in 13 seasons.

Theo and the rest of the Red Sox front office are fully aware that that is not good enough in Boston. To the fans at least, it's simply unacceptable.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

In Andrew Miller, Red Sox May Have Found Diamond In The Rough

The Red Sox may have found a diamond in the rough in their acquisition of power pitcher Andrew Miller from the Marlins.

Miller was Detroit's first-round draft pick in the 2006 amateur draft, going to the Tigers with the sixth overall selection. He was so highly touted that he was chosen one pick ahead of Dodgers' rising star Clayton Kershaw and four picks ahead of the Giants' Tim Lincecum, a two-time Cy Young Award winner.

Miller, a 6-foot-7 lefty, was the National Collegiate Player of the Year at the University of North Carolina that year. However, he never found that kind of success at the professional level.

With almost no development time in the minors, Miller made his major league debut the very year he was drafted. Miller wasn't a late-season call up either; he was promoted to the big leagues just three weeks after inking a four-year, $5.4 million deal.

The projections for Miller were so good that the Marlins insisted that he be included as part of any package that Detroit put together for Miguel Cabrera in the winter of 2007.

But Miller became a major disappointment in Florida, going 10-20 with a 5.89 ERA.

The Marlins identified Miller's problem as a failure to repeat his delivery due to a tendency to throw across his body.

However, Daniel Bard, Miller's college teammate at UNC, said that the Marlins seem to have tinkered with Miller's delivery too much and that it had a negative effect on him.

"I think they just changed a lot of things and it kind of took away from the pitcher he was when he was drafted," said Bard. "He looks quite a bit different than his 2006, college version. It seems like [his delivery] had changed gradually ever since then."

Despite those issues, Bard thinks that Miller will turn out to be a good acquisition for the Red Sox.

"I think it will be good, change of scenery, good organization. I think it will be a positive thing for him," said Bard. "All the tools are still there. Nothing has changed."

The Red Sox starting rotation appears to be set. Even if the Sox trade Daisuke Matsuzaka, it is highly unlikely that Miller would be the answer. The would certainly look for a starter with much greater Major League success than Miller.

What is more likely is that Miller will be given a chance to earn a spot in the bullpen out of spring training. Given that the 25-year-old is out of options, both he and the Red Sox have a lot riding on this experiment. Miler would first have to clear options to be assigned to Triple A.

However, Miller has a four-pitch repertoire, including a four-seam fastball that has touched 99 mph, plus a 12-to-6 curve, a slider and a change-up. He's even said to be working on a cutter.

That assortment of pitches will make him an interesting, if not irresistible, project for new pitching coach Curt Young. As a reliever, all those pitches could make him tough on hitters — if his mechanics are refined and his delivery is consistent.

More than anything else, Miller may just need a confidence booster and the knowledge that he has the support of his pitching coach and the organization.

Miller was such a highly regarded prospect when the Tigers drafted him that the consensus was they had a future ace on their hands. It would hardly be surprising if Miller feels that he let a lot of people down, not the least of which is himself.

Being projected as a future superstar is quite a burden for any young player. The Red Sox will be happy if Miller simply becomes a successful, consistent power lefty out of the pen next season.

Sunday, November 07, 2010

Red Sox Pick Up Ortiz's Option; Best For Player And Team

The Red Sox chose to pick up David Ortiz's option because they want the iconic player back next season and they didn't want negotiations to get messy.

As a result, it is obvious that the Red Sox overpaid for a one-dimensional hitter who cannot play defense.

Ortiz wanted the security of a longer-term deal that would give him the comfort of playing out his days in Boston, a city he has come to embrace as much as it has embraced him.

Should he struggle again at the start of next season, or at any time time, Ortiz hoped not to deal with the constant pressure and scrutiny from the media and fans alike, and all the questions of whether he may finally be released.

The heft of his 2011 salary alone now makes that somewhat less likely.

But Theo Epstein knows that, despite his solid season in 2010, Ortiz is a player whose best years are now clearly behind him. The reality is that, on the open market, Ortiz would command a salary of about half what the Red Sox will pay him next year.

Yet, the Red Sox still overpaid. Epstein didn't want to be saddled with a longer term pact based on sentimentality or nostalgia. So the easiest, cleanest thing to do was to pick up the option. Perhaps the team will benefit from having a highly motivated Ortiz playing for another contract next year.

The good news is that Ortiz finished the 2010 season batting .270 (which he finally reached in the last game of the season), with 32 homers, 36 doubles, 102 RBI and a .529 slugging percentage.

On the other hand, Ortiz struck out 145 times in 2010, fourth most in the AL. It was also a career high for the Red Sox DH, breaking the previous high he had set in 2009.

Yes, Ortiz has whiffed an awful lot the last two years for a guy who was once a very good hitter, not just a slugger.

Strikeouts are an example of futility and are the worst kind of out. Since the ball isn't even put into play, it doesn't stand a chance of producing a hit or scoring a run, as in the case of a sacrifice or reaching on a fielder's choice.

Of even greater concern, Ortiz was positively inept against lefties last season, hitting only .222, notching just two of his 32 homers, and slugging a mere .324 in repeatedly futile at-bats.

Ortiz will be greatly disappointed to learn that he will often sit against lefties next season. Whether or not he expects it, he'd better learn to accept it. And the truth is, if Ortiz doesn't expect it, he is delusional.

Great players are always the last to accept their decline. They are always the last to realize that their skills are diminishing. They always think they can still make the big play, get the key hit, and come through in the clutch, just like they always used to.

The unfortunate thing for the Red Sox is that, at $12.5 million next season, Ortiz takes up too much salary space for them to go out and get another solidly capable right-handed hitter to complement him.

For that price, the Sox should have been able to employ a combination of left-handed and a right-handed hitters who could both DH and adequately field their positions.

Ortiz's defensive shortcomings are also a liability to the team, and his lack of ability in the field clearly limits manager Terry Francona's options.

But Ortiz still murders right-handed pitching, and the Sox hope that continues in 2011.

It should be a milestone season for the Sox' slugger. Already fifth in team history with 291 career homers, next season Ortiz will join the likes of Red Sox legends Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice and Dwight Evans in the 300-homer club.

What's more, Ortiz will begin 2011 with 932 RBI, and should become just the sixth player in team history to surpass 1,000 RBI.

Yes, the Red Sox overpaid Ortiz by picking up his option. But they wanted to avoid an ugly, protracted negotiation with him in which they would have to point out all of his shortcomings.

Nothing good comes from telling the greatest clutch hitter in team history that he has slipped considerably, even if it's true.

As much as anything, the Red Sox have accepted that they are indeed paying for past performance. Ortiz holds a special place in Red Sox history, and in the hearts of the fans. He is a two-time World Series winner with the Sox, and he is a leader both in the clubhouse and in the community.

Ortiz now has seven seasons with at least 25 home runs for the Red Sox. Only Jim Rice (7) and Ted Williams (14) have accomplished that feat. And Ortiz now has six 30-homer, 100-RBI seasons with the Red Sox.

Those six 30-homer seasons tie Ortiz with Manny Ramirez for second most in franchise history behind Ted Williams, who did in eight times. And only Williams (9) and Rice (8) had more 100-RBI seasons than Ortiz in Red Sox history.

The Sox determined that it is better to overpay Ortiz, keep him happy, satisfied, and upbeat, yet hungry and motivated for another contract in 2012. A disgruntled Ortiz would have been bad for team chemistry.

Over the past two seasons, the images of him moping back to the dugout after yet another strike out, and then sulking about it on the bench, were both sad and disappointing.

The Red Sox can only hope that there are more of the highs and fewer of the lows in 2011. And that will likely be the case as long as Ortiz plays against righties and sits against lefties.

Count on it.