Francona #2 in Wins Among Red Sox Managers

But He's #1 in the Post-Season, When it Really Counts

Red Sox manager Terry Francona notched a milestone last night, moving into a second-place tie for most wins by a Red Sox skipper (560).

The Red Sox also reached 90 wins for the third consecutive season, and the fifth time in Terry Francona's six seasons at the helm.

Francona's even-tempered professionalism has a lent a sense of ease and calm to a club playing in a city not traditionally marked by ease and calm.

Baseball is a virtual religion in Boston, and the Sox rabid fan base can at times be described as dour, pessimistic and reactionary. Francona's steady presence has unquestionably been a significant aspect of the team's success since 2004.

The Sox skipper is known as a player's manager and is sometimes loyal to a fault, sticking with his players long after the fans and media have called for them to be benched, traded, or released.

Francona stood by players such as Mark Belhorn, Kevin Millar, Trot Nixon and, most recently, David Ortiz, as they struggled. His confidence and commitment to his players often pays off, and he seems to have earned the loyalty and trust of all.

Rarely has Francona had public run-ins with his players of the type that are at times seen with less level-headed managers.

Jay Payton had to force an uncomfortable confrontation to manipulate his way out of Boston. Francona didn't take the bait; he simply gave Payton the exit he desired.

Francona also took the high road with Pedro Martinez's prima donna act. And the same goes with Manny Ramirez's insufferable, selfish behavior. Francona was happy to be rid of the cancer and move on for the betterment of clubhouse chemistry.

Ever the true professional, Francona keeps team business private and within the clubhouse. How much the fans and media never hear about can only be speculated.

Joe Cronin, the winningest manger in club history, had a 13-year tenure as Red Sox manager and is the only skipper in team history to have exceeded Francona's six years of service.

Despite amassing the second most managerial wins in Red Sox history, Francona's success is without precedent. He won two World Series Championships in his first four seasons, and is the only Boston manager to reach the postseason more than twice; Francona has done it four times and this year will mark the fifth.

No previous Red Sox manager had won 90 games as many as four times, and Francona has now done it in five seasons. And Francona's .583 winning percentage the best winning percentage in team history among managers with 400 or more games.

For all he's achieved, hat's off to Terry Francona. And a hearty thanks from Red Sox Nation.

Most wins by Red Sox managers

Joe Cronin 1,071
Terry Francona 560
Pinky Higgins 560
Bill Carrigan 489
Jimmy Collins 455

Francona's Record with Red Sox

2009 90-61
2008 95-67
2007 96-66
2006 86-76
2005 95-67
2004 98-64

Total 560-401

Jason Bay Set to Become Very Rich Man

Jason Bay has had a productive week. A memorable week. A milestone week. And, likely, a very fortuitous week

On Sunday, Bay turned 31 and, to celebrate, set a new career best with his 110th RBI. Then last night he set another career-best, with his 36 home run.

Bay picked a good season to have a career year; he will become a free agent after the World Series. And he will celebrate once again when he cashes in and signs a very lucrative, long-term pact during the offseason.

The left fielder has been on a tear and could conceivably hit his 40th home run in the Red Sox remaining 13 games. That could push his asking price even higher. At this point, one has to figure that Bay will looking for a minimum of five years and $75 million.

But Bay says he isn't concerned about hitting 40 homers this year, or any year. He says walks and RBI are more important to him. With 89 walks (plus four IBB) and 113 RBI, Bay has plenty to be proud of.

And his 181 HR since 2004 (his Rookie of the Year season) are 15th most in baseball during that period.

For Red Sox fans who didn't follow the National League, or the Prates more specifically, Bay has been a revelation. The guy is hella good.

And that will make him one of the most sought after free agents this offseason. Bay is younger and better than most of the other left fielders who will be vying for contracts.

Here's an alphabetical listing of the upcoming free agent left fielders, with their ages in parenthesis:

Garret Anderson (38)
Marlon Anderson (36)
Jason Bay (31)
Emil Brown (35)
Marlon Byrd (32)
Carl Crawford (28) - $10M club option with a $1.25M buyout
Johnny Damon (36)
David Dellucci (36)
Cliff Floyd (37)
Matt Holliday (30)
Reed Johnson (33)
Jacque Jones (35)
Gabe Kapler (34)
Greg Norton (37)
Wily Mo Pena (28)
Manny Ramirez (38) - $20M player option
Gary Sheffield (41)
Fernando Tatis (35)
Randy Winn (36)

Garret Anderson, Damon, Holliday, and Ramirez are all Scott Boras clients. Considering their age and other factors, it's hard to imagine any of them coming, or coming back, to Boston.

Crawford, Pena and Holiday are the only players younger than Bay in this group. But Holliday appears better suited for the NL after his underwhelming stint with Oakland this season. Pena hardly appears suited suited for the Majors Leagues—period—and the Sox already gave up him. Crawford is fast, great defensively, and is a career .295 hitter (.307 this season). But he doesn't hit for power, which is what the Red Sox need from their left fielder.

Despite his 21 home runs this season, JD Drew is not a true power hitter; he hadn't hit 20 since 2006 (with the Dodgers) and has hit 30 just once. In addition, Jacoby Ellsbury also isn't a power hitter (20 career HR). So the Red Sox need some thump from their left fielder.

Bay seems comfortable in Boston and has said he enjoys playing there. Being on a contender has got to feel rejuvenating after suffering through the continual grind of a languishing Pittsburgh team for 4 1/2 years.

Most of Bay's fellow free agents will be too old, or not of high enough caliber, for the Red Sox to give them serious consideration. Marlon Byrd could be an exception.

Byrd is 32, and is having a solid season; 17 HR, 79 RBI, 42 2B, .283/.325/..472

Yet he simply isn't as talented as Bay.

And that's why the Red Sox, short of a blockbuster trade, are going to re-sign Bay. The Sox' left fielder started the season scorching hot, cooled after the break, and has since resumed his torrid pace. He will have a lot of leverage in contract negotiations this winter.

For whatever reason, Bay and the Red Sox were unable to reach a mutually beneficial agreement during in-season negotiations, and that will be to Bay's benefit this winter.

The Red Sox used the potential of a widespread economic collapse as their reason for not extending Bay during last offseason. Oddly, they will have to hope for such a calamity to avoid paying Bay a significant salary this time.

Ask yourself this; if JD Drew is worth five-years and $70 million, just how much is Jason Bay worth?

That's the question Bay will surely pose to the Red Sox this winter.

Red Sox Rotation Appears Locked In & Locked Down

With 14 games remaining in the regular season, the Red Sox finally seem to have their starting pitching in order, and perhaps even their playoff rotation set.

It's been a long time coming.

The Red Sox started the year reputed as having the best pitching depth in baseball. Yet, that notion seemed patently absurd over the past few months.

From the very beginning, Brad Penny was never cut out for the AL, particularly the AL East. Daisuke Matsuzaka was ineffective before going on the DL with a weakened shoulder. John Smoltz looked old, lacking in command, and utterly baffled on the mound. And Tim Wakefield broke down for the third year in a row, likely the result of being in his early 40s.

All of a sudden, the Red Sox had fallen out of first place, were slumping badly, and their playoff hopes razor thin.

But over the past month or so, the rotation has settled into a rhythm, and the Red Sox ship has been righted as it sails toward October.

What happened to account for this change for the better?

Smoltz and Penny were jettisoned, Clay Buchholz started to deliver on the promise that had been held out for so long, and Matsuzaka has returned rested and fresh.

But most importantly, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have established themselves as a premier one-two punch in a rotation that desperately needed stability and consistency. They are the foundation that the rest of the staff is built upon. And their confidence and leadership seem to be having a positive affect.

Over their last two starts each, this is how the Red Sox quartet of young pitchers have fared:

Beckett
5 innings, 1 ER
8 innings, 3 ER

Lester
8 innings, 0 ER
6 innings, 3 ER

Buchholz
7 innings, 1 ER
6 innings, 1 ER

Matsuzaka
6 innings, 0 ER
5.1 innings, 3 ER

Cumulatively, the four Red Sox starters have combined for 51.1 innings over eight starts, allowing just 12 earned runs.

Odds are, that group comprises the Red Sox post-season rotation.

Tim Wakefield, who will pitch tonight, likely can't be relied upon. Despite his impressive first half, Wakefield has been weakened and sidelined by sciatica. He returned gamely for an excellent start in is last outing, only to be shelved once more. Tonight is another test.

It may break Terry Francona's heart, but it's hard to imagine Wakefield making the playoff roster, much less starting in the post-season.

The real question then is who will comprise the three-man rotation that Francona will likely utilize in the playoffs? Will is be the greener, less experienced, but red hot Buccholz, or the more experienced, yet still unproven (in 2009, at the least) Matsuzaka?

My guess is that Francona will go with Buchholz, given Matsuzaka's issues this year, and his less than stellar start yesterday (5.1 innings, nine base runners allowed, 110 pitches). Of course that could change if Buchholz blows up in his next start, or if Matsuzaka shines in his next appearance.

One way or the other, as long as Matsuzaka's shoulder issues are behind him, the Sox will enter the post-season with three young, healthy, and potentially dominant pitchers. That bodes well for a team with genuine World Series aspirations.

Matsuzaka's Arrival: Better Late Than Never

Watching Daisuke Matsuzaka shut out the powerful Angels lineup for six plus innings was undoubtedly heartening to the Red Sox.

For starters, Matsuzaka made it into the seventh inning for the first time this season. Matsuzaka, who turned 29 just two days earlier, had failed to do so in any of his previous eight starts.

The reason he was finally able to get that deep into the game was effectiveness; 70% of the hitters Dice-K faced tonight had two strikes on them within the first three pitches.

And on those rare occasions when Matsuzaka got behind in the count, opponents batted just .167 against him. In his first eight starts it was .391.

The other reason Dice-K made into the seventh for the first time was economy; the righty threw just 93 pitches, 52 of them for strikes.

Matsuzaka's average fastball was clocked at 91 mph, the same as in his first eight starts before before going on the DL.

On six occasions the Angels put a runner in scoring position against Matsuzaka, and all six times he kept them from scoring.

With Tim Wakefield's status uncertain, Matsuzaka's great outing was the good news the Red Sox needed right now. The playoffs are just over three weeks away, and Wakefield may not pitch again this year.

The strength disparity between Wakefield's legs is obvious to his coaches, and Terry Francona said of his injury, "it's certainly not getting better."

So, Matsuzaka's first quality start of the season couldn't have come at a more opportune time. For his part, Matsuzaka returned lighter and in better shape than at any other point this season.

The Red Sox will need this version of Matsuzaka down the stretch.

Incredibly, aside from Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, Red Sox starters had a total of just three outs after the sixth inning this entire season.

But now, over the last four games, Beckett, Buchholz, Lester and Matsuzaka have allowed a total of just one run, as they prepare for the post-season.

It appears that the Sox staff is getting in synch at just the right time.

Lester Securing His Place Amongst Red Sox Lefties

In just four seasons (only two of them full campaigns), Jon Lester has already put a few notches in his belt: a no-hitter, World Series Game Four winner, and club record for strikeouts in a season by a lefty (204).

Bruce Hurst, the last great Red Sox lefty prior to Lester, previously held the mark for 22 years with 191 Ks.

Having already surpassed Hurst's team record, Lester moved into even more elite company in his last start, becoming just the 10th pitcher in team history to record 200 strikeouts in a season, and the first lefty to do so.

Here's a list of those 10 Red Sox pitchers with 200 K seasons:

Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Curt Schilling
Pedro Martinez
Hideo Nomo
Roger Clemens
Luis Tiant
Jim Longborg
Joe Wood
Cy Young

Lester's 204 Ks are third in the AL and fifth in the Majors. His 3.44 ERA is eighth in the AL and his 20 quality starts are tied for third in the AL.

Having clearly established himself as one of the top lefties in the game today, Lester's rapidly growing list of accomplishments—achieved in such a brief period—already qualify him as one of the best in Red Sox history. In fact, his 7.8 K/9 innings is the best of any lefty in club history.

Other notable Sox lefties have included: Mel Parnell (123 wins), Lefty Grove (105 wins), Bill Lee (94 wins), Dutch Leonard (90 wins), Babe Ruth (89 wins), and Hurst (88 wins).

Parnell's club record for wins by a lefty seems to be within Lester's grasp. At age 25, Lester already has 39 victories. No lefty in team history had won as many games by the age of 25.

With 16 wins last year and 12 so far this year, it seems reasonable that Lester could average 15 wins per season. If he manages that rate, he would surpass Parnell in 2015 at the age of 31.

That would surely secure his status as the best Red Sox lefty of all time.

Crunch Time for Beckett and the Red Sox

For much of the season, Josh Beckett has been totally dominant and looked like a Cy Young candidate.

Beckett leads the Sox' rotation with 175.1 innings, and has allowed just 155 hits while fanning 163 batters.

But then, in August, Beckett began getting rocked.

Coming into his last start, Beckett had been battered in two consecutive outings, resulting in an 0-1 record and 10.12 ERA. In 13 1/3 innings, he had allowed 18 hits, 15 runs, and 8 homers. Opponents had batted .316 against him with an .807 slugging percentage and a 1.129 OPS.

Incredibly, in the midst of these beatings, Beckett had issued just one walk, meaning that opposing hitters were simply teeing off against him.

The Sox were hoping Beckett would return to form in his most recent start against Toronto last week. Instead, they got more of the same from him.

In that start, Beckett lasted just five innings, giving up five runs on five hits, while issuing a season-high five walks. While he did strike out nine Blue Jays, Beckett didn't look like the pitcher who had dominated opposing hitters most of the season.

What's going on?

The Red Sox believe his problems are rooted in his mechanics, the same problems that plagued him earlier this season. Beckett has been over-throwing, which has affected his delivery. The depth on his curve ball has diminished, as has the command on his fastball, which has been staying up in the strike zone. That's resulted in the wealth of home runs he's allowed in his recent outings.

Over his last four starts, Beckett has allowed a whopping 12 homers, after surrendering just 10 in his previous 22 starts this season.

The big righty is 0-1 in his last three starts, and his ERA, which had been 3.10 in his first 23 starts, has reached a whopping 9.82 over his last three outings. These three consecutive dismal performances have likely dropped him out of Cy Young contention.

It's as if he completed a 180˚ turn in August, forgetting all that had led him to success earlier in the season.

That does not bode well for the Red Sox post-season aspirations. As Beckett goes, so go the Red Sox. Without an effective Beckett on the mound, the Sox don't stand a chance in October, assuming they even get that far.

Undoubtedly, pitching coach John Farrell has been working furiously with Beckett to get his mechanics sorted out, and the process has been going on for weeks. Now it's crunch time. The calendar has turned to September and the regular season ends just one month from Friday.

That leaves little time to get it right. But considering Beckett's history and his tough and determined nature, it's hard to bet against him. Beckett is simply suffering through a late season swoon. Yet, while a slump was easier to contend with in April, if it continues in September it will be crushing to the Red Sox and their playoff hopes.

We'll know more tonight, as Beckett makes his 27th start of the 2009 campaign against the Rays in Tampa.

The defending AL champs should pose an interesting challenge for Boston's ace; they are fourth in the AL in runs, home runs and on-base percentage, and fifth in slugging.

They are also just 3.5 games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card standings.

Will the real Josh Beckett please stand up?

Wagner Power Painter Should Help Red Sox

Billy Wagner joining the Red Sox makes sense for all involved parties.

The Mets are off the hook for the remainder of the nearly $3.5 million owed to him this year. Wagner gets to join a team in a pennant race that has genuine World Series aspirations. And the Red Sox get an additional lefty veteran to pair with Hideki Okajima in their bullpen.

Wagner, a six-time All-Star, has 385 career saves, which is sixth all time. The 5’10” flame thrower has been a beast throughout his career, possessing a 2.39 career ERA and 1,070 strikeouts in 820 innings. That is a phenomenal strikeout to innings ratio. And opponents are batting a paltry .189 against him.

Reportedly, the Sox didn’t have to give up much in return—just two minor leaguers to be named later, only one of whom is on the 40-man roster. And neither is expected to be an upper level prospect.

Having another lefty, especially a power lefty, will really help Terry Francona and the Sox down the stretch. The two keys to the deal are these: the offense has to continue to produce, giving the bullpen comfortable leads to hold, and Wagner needs to be healthy.

To that end, Wagner has been clocked in the mid-90s in his two appearances since his return. That’s a reason for optimism, and surely why the Red Sox felt confident in making the move.

But they were equally confident about Eric Gagne two seasons ago, and he had two-thirds of a season behind him to prove that he was both healthy and effective. That didn’t work out too well. And Wagner has made just two appearances—both in the past week—since rehabbing and recovering from Tommy John (elbow ligament) surgery last September.

Wagner wants to protect his elbow from re-injury. Yet, over the next six weeks (and hopefully more), he also wants to showcase the health of his elbow and prove that he still has closer stuff.

The Sox also want to protect their invest down the stretch, and won’t use him in back-to-back games. But what about October, when it’s all-or-nothing, do-or-die? Whose interests will the Sox put up front, theirs or Wagner’s? If they’re not planning on re-signing him, Wagner’s health won’t be nearly as big a concern to them as to him.

How fully his elbow has healed in the intervening 11 months is yet to be determined, but his two appearances so far—though a very small sample—are promising. In those two appearances, Wagner pitched two innings, giving up no hits, no runs, and one walk, while striking out four.

And Wagner has a lot riding on this himself. He asked the Red Sox to promise not to pick up his option for next season so that he can try to secure a longer, more lucrative pact elsewhere. Considering that Wagner is 38, it will likely be the last long term deal he ever signs, and he wants to cash in big one last time.

Initially, Wagner also wanted the Sox to promise not to offer him arbitration next year, making him more desirable to other clubs. But the Mets were under no such obligation to make such an offer and would surely have done so in an effort to get two compensatory draft picks when he signs elsewhere.

It’s important to note that there is no guarantee that Wagner will be classified as a Type A free agent. Wagner’s lengthy absence and significant injury could affect that. If he doesn’t pitch well for the Sox down the stretch, he would almost certainly lose that status.

The Sox were expecting Eric Gagne to be a Type A free agent after the 2007 season, but he was eventually listed as a Type B, giving the Sox just one compensatory draft pick when he signed with the Brewers.

The point is, there are no guarantees regarding future compensation. The Sox can only hope to get two players if Wagner signs elsewhere, and that they are better than the two minor leaguers they parted with to acquire the former All-Star.

In the meantime, Wagner will get to know his teammates and try to blend in with the reportedly excellent clubhouse chemistry in Boston. His introduction to Jonathan Papelbon should be interesting.

Papelbon now says his remarks questioning Wagner's readiness to pitch were "taken out of content."

Verbiage aside, how could his remarks possibly have been taken out of context? He was specifically talking about Billy Wagner potentially joining the Red Sox, and his entire quote was attributed.

Papelbon has never been accused of being a genius.

Athletes always use that same lame excuse; "My words were taken out of context," as if that somehow negates what they previously said.

In Papelbon's case, they were taken out of content. That's another matter entirely.

For the Wagner acquisition to pay off, he has to prove that he is fully recovered. The Sox offense, defense, and starting pitching will all have to do their parts as well. Time will tell.

The next six weeks will be a proving ground for both Billy Wagner and the Red Sox—and hopefully a mutually beneficial time as well.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Tarnished Penny: Brad Penny Hurts Red Sox and Must Go

At this point, it's reasonable to ask if Brad Penny will, or should, ever make another start for the Red Sox.

Against the Yankees on Friday night, Penny lasted just four innings, allowing eight earned runs on 10 hits. In all, the burly righty allowed 11 base runners and recorded just 12 outs in his rather brief outing.

With the loss, Penny's record now stands at 7-8, making him the only Sox pitcher with a minimum of 10 starts that has a losing record.

As further evidence of his futility, Penny's ERA jumped to a bloated 5.61, which is 37th in the AL.

At this point, Penny can only be described as an outright bust for the Red Sox. He has just one win in his past 11 starts, to go along with a 6.37 ERA during that span, dating back to June 23.

Not once in his 24 starts this season has Penny made it through the seventh inning, the worst streak in the Majors. It is a level of ineptitude not experienced by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954.

It is part of a disturbing and long term trend; Penny has not finished the seveth inning since May 24, 2008.

With such consistently brief outings, Penny has been a drain on the Sox' bullpen all season.

Over 131.2 innings this year, Penny has given up 160 hits (7th in AL) and 42 walks. Those 202 base runners have resulted in a 1.53 WHIP.

Far too often, Penny lets batters reach base, and ultimately too many of them score. Opponents are batting .351 against him, and his 82 earned runs are tied for third in the AL.

With Tim Wakefield due back next week, and Paul Byrd close behind, you have to wonder if the Red Sox have seen enough of Penny and are ready to move on. The activation of either pitcher will necessitate a corresponding roster move, and Penny could well be the odd man out.

Indeed, Junichi Tazawa is young and green, and he was forced into action way too soon. At the least, it was far sooner than the Red Sox had planned for or wanted, But at this point, even he may be a better proposition than Penny.

We'll know more about Tazawa's readiness during his start against the challenging Yankee lineup this afternoon.

To this point, the young Japanese righty has managed three brief outings, and surely has an innings limit.

The Sox are also anticipating the return of Daisuke Matsuzaka next month. But, like Penny, he too can only be relied on for limited innings, despite allowing a wealth of runs.

Something has got to give. It's impossible for the Red Sox to maintain playoff hopes with three starters who can't consistently pitch at least six innings.

The Sox can't go on like this with Penny any longer. There's only so much room on the roster and they need an innings eater. It's a good bet that either Wakefield or Byrd will give them more than Penny can.

The Sox rolled the dice on Penny and it hasn't worked out. Okay, you could day it's backfired miserably.

One way or the other, Penny hurts the Sox more than he helps and it's time for them to cut bait and move on before he causes any further damage.

The bullpen, and the team as a whole, can't take any more of Brad Penny.

Red Sox Don't Look Like a Playoff Team

With 45 games left in the season, the Red Sox find themselves in an unexpected position — fighting for a playoff spot.

Once possessing the best record in the AL, the Red Sox have hit the skids and are now one game behind the Rangers in the Wild Card hunt.

At the All Star break, the Sox were 20 games over .500 and held a three-game lead over the Yankees. As recently as July 19, they were still in first place.

However, the Sox have fallen flat and appear out of gas. Boston is 6-9 this month, and 12-17 since the break. Once viewed as the premier team in the AL, the Sox suddenly find themselves fighting for respectability.

Having dropped two of three against the Rangers this weekend, the Sox are now 2-7 against Texas this season, giving them a decided disadvantage in any tie-breaker. The two teams do not play each other again this season.

After rallying to score six runs in the ninth against Texas on Friday night for an 8-4 victory, the Sox combined for just five runs over the next two games. Most futilely, the Sox were 0-10 with runners in scoring position in those two contests. It was hardly a surprise; in fact it was part of a trend.

Before the All-Star break the Red Sox were hitting .281 with runners in scoring position (third-best in the AL). But since the break, they're hitting .233 (13th in the AL).

On any given day, at least half of the Red Sox lineup looks completely impotent. David Ortiz is batting .221, Jason Varitek .223, Nick Green .233, Brian Anderson .236, JD Drew .254, and Alex Gonzalez, the newest Red Sox, was bating just .210 before joining the team.

There are automatic outs all over the Boston lineup and it's killing them. After producing the third-most runs in baseball during the first half, the Sox lineup is tied for 16th since the break.

The Sox offense benefits from playing at Fenway, scoring 5.66 runs per game at home, third best in the majors. But away from home their production falls by more than a full run, scoring 4.57 runs per game, 13th best.

The starting rotation, once the envy of the AL, is full of question marks once they get past Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.

John Smoltz was a bust, and the same can be said of Brad Penny. The burly right-hander has won just once in his past 10 starts and is now 7-7 with a 5.22 ERA. He has not made it through the seventh inning in any of his 23 starts this season, the most in the Majors. It is a level of ineptitude not experienced by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954.

Clay Buchholz is 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA. He has allowed 59 base runners in just 32.1 innings. Buchholz is unproven in the regular season, much less the playoffs.

Junichi Tazawa has made just two starts and has a 5.40 ERA. Could anybody realistically expect him to perform in October if the Sox somehow turn things around and extend their season? Not likely.

Tim Wakefield is 43 and on the DL for the third consecutive season during the stretch drive. Due to sciatica, Wakefield is now walking with a limp and it is unclear if he can even field his position. Don't count on him being the solution, much less the savior for the Sox rotation.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is expected back sometime next month. But he hasn't pitched since June 19 and is 1-5 with an 8.23 ERA this season. Matsuzaka averaged just 4.4 innings per start before going on the DL The Japanese righty never made a quality start this season, and lasted six innings just once in his eight starts. He can't be expected to pitch meaningful innings down the stretch and is not a playoff-caliber pitcher at this time.

Paul Byrd is Paul Byrd and hasn't pitched in the Majors since last October. Enough said.

What is evident is that the Red Sox rotation is not playoff-caliber, and is largely staffed with a combination of old, injured, ineffective, and unproven pitchers.

As a whole, the Red Sox have fared well in the familiar confines of Fenway Park, going 38-18 there this season. But on the road, it's another story entirely. The Sox are a below average team away from home, compiling an uninspiring 28-33 record.

That's not good enough to get them into the playoffs, much less through the playoffs.

On July 1, the Sox were 23-20 on the road, which was the fifth best road mark in baseball. Since the All-Star break, the Sox are 5-13 on the road, compared to 7-4 at home.

If only they could play all their games at Fenway.

The ugly truth for the Red Sox and their fans is that this is not a great team, and probably not even a playoff team. That's a bitter pill to swallow since the Red Sox and their fans expect to see October baseball in Boston each and every year.

That isn't likely this time around.

Jacoby Ellsbury: Hail to the Thief

Before the Red Sox leave Texas on Sunday, Jacoby Ellsbury may have staked his claim in the club's record book. Tommy Harper’s single-season steals record seems poised to fall. 

Ellsbury stole his 53rd base on Saturday night, overtaking Tris Speaker for second best by a Red Sox. Ellsbury is now just one steal away from Harper’s team record set back in 1973. 

The Red Sox haven't had many speedsters in the intervening 36 years, and Ellsbury has opened a new dimension in the team's game. 

Ellsbury is the first Red Sox player with multiple 50-steal seasons, and just the third player in team history to reach the half-century mark. 

Here's a look at the Red Sox single-season leaders: 

Rank - Player - Year - SB 

1. Tommy Harper, 1973 - 54 

2. Jacoby Ellsbury, 2009 - 53 

3. Tris Speaker, 1912 - 52 

4. Jacoby Ellsbury, 2008 - 50 

5. Tris Speaker, 1913 - 46 

6. Tris Speaker, 1914 - 42 

6. Otis Nixon, 1994 - 42 (strike season) 

7. Harry Hooper, 1910 - 40 

7. Billy Werber, 1934 - 40 

As you can see, the Sox earned their reputation as a team that didn't steal many bases, going 20, 39, and 21 years without a 40-steal season from any player. Before Ellsbury accomplished the feat last season, it had been 14 years since the last player, Otis Nixon, had stolen as many as 40 bases. 

It's worth noting that Nixon stole 42 bases in just 103 games that season, due to the 1994 player's strike. Who knows how many he would have snatched in a full campaign? 

Ellsbury started the season strongly, seemingly on a mission to break Harper's 36-year-old mark. Being that it's only only mid-August, there's no telling what Ellsbury's new record will be come season's end, but 60 steals doesn't seem unlikely. That was once unimaginable for a Red Sox player. 

In less than three full seasons, Ellsbury has already moved into seventh place on the team's all-time stolen base list. That should tell you plenty about the Red Sox and their tendency to steal bases, or lack thereof. 

Harry Hooper holds the club record with an even 300 steals, achieved in 1647 games over 12 seasons. With 111 thefts in just 286 games, Ellsbury should be halfway there by next season. 

If he stays healthy, Ellsbury could surpass Hooper in about four years, which would be a rather remarkable accomplishment—especially for a Red Sox player.

The Red Sox are in Trouble

Watching Brad Penny pitch last night was just the latest sign that the Red Sox are in trouble.

Once again, Penny couldn't pitch into the 7th inning. The big righty went six innings, giving up five runs on six hits, allowed two walks, and struck out five.

Penny, now 7-6, has not gone seven innings in any of his 21 starts this season, which is the most in the Majors. It's also the longest single-season streak by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954.

Due this latest weak outing, Penny's ERA rose again, to a lofty 5.20.

And there's little reason for optimism tonight. John Smoltz, he of the 2-4 record and 7.12 ERA, takes the mound in the Bronx against the Yankees. Feeling any better, Red Sox fans?

Smoltz spent 20 years building an impressive resume in Atlanta before the Braves bid farewell to him after reconstructive shoulder surgery. Apparently they were onto something. There was little reason to believe that a 42-year-old pitcher could remain effective after having his labrum surgically repaired. Yet the Red Sox held out hope and took a shot on the former star.

Theo Epstein's signing of the aging veteran was widely described as "low risk, high reward." Perhaps Smoltz's guaranteed $5M salary is low risk by Red Sox standards, but it's a reward he hasn't yet earned. What's worse, there is plenty of risk to the team, and the bullpen in particular, every time he takes the mound.

And then there's Clay Buchholz, he of the supposedly limitless upside and potential. Other than a brilliant no-hitter in just his second big league start two years ago, we haven't seen anything to be inspired by since then. The alleged wunderkind has allowed 40 base runners in just 19.1 innings this season, resulting in a 2.02 WHIP. Opponents are batting a vibrant .337 against Buchholz, and his ERA stands at a hefty 6.05.

Buchholz will be 25 in 11 days. Having made starts in each of the last three seasons, he's past the point of being a prospect now. It's time for him to put up or risk becoming the latest "can't miss kid" who missed, unable to live up to the hype.

In their last starts, Penny, Smoltz, and Buchholz have combined for 16 innings, 23 hits, and 17 earned runs. Believe it or not, Penny and Smoltz had been even worse in their previous starts.

The Sox are so desperate that they signed 38-year-old Paul Byrd to a minor league contract this week. Byrd, with a 108-93 career record and 4.38 ERA, hasn't pitched since last October. But right now, he's better than any other available options. That's how bad things are at the moment for the Sox.

If you think Tim Wakefield is the answer, think again. Though Wakefield is having a very good season (11-3, 4.31 ERA), he is 43 and has been derailed by shoulder issues in each of the last two seasons. However, that shoulder is secondary to his current ailment; sciatica.

The condition is so bad that Wakefield may need a second cortisone shot to treat it, and the sciatic nerve is now radiating all the way down to his left calf.

Said Wakefield, “I’m just depressed that this isn’t progressing the way I want it to progress. I’ve got zero strength in my left calf due to the nerve. I’m just waiting for it to get better.”

Earlier this week, the Sox veteran said the pain had been so bad that he could “barely walk.”

While the Sox are trying to remain optimistic, they don’t realistically expect Wakefield to return for a couple of weeks. Wakefield said trainers told him a person typically requires 6-8 weeks to recover from sciatica, yet he’s still hoping for a quicker return.

The Red Sox expect that Daisuke Matsuzaka will be ready to pitch again in September. But since he won't be stretched out, the best they can hope for is 4-5 innings per start. That would be pretty typical; this season, Matsuzaka has averaged just 4.4 innings per start, and last year just 5.8 innings per start. If 4-5 innings is all the Red Sox can reasonably expect from him, it will put excessive strain on an already overworked bullpen.

They will miss Justin Masterson.

Matsuzaka is just 1-5 this season, with a bloated 8.23 ERA. Opponents are batting .378 against him, his WHIP is 2.20, and he has zero quality starts in eight tries. For the Japanese righty, this season has been an outright bust.

Despite his success last year (18-3, 2.90 ERA) it's important to note that his 18 wins were achieved in the fewest amount of innings of any pitcher to have ever won at least 18 games.

And there was a lot of good luck and good defense at play as well; Matsuzaka loaded the bases an incredible 15 times last season without allowing a run. That kind of good fortune always runs put eventually.

Amazingly, the Red Sox may find themselves counting on minor league pitchers Michael Bowden (3-5, 3.40 ERA at Pawtucket) and/or Junichi Tazawa (0-2, 2.38 ERA at Pawtucket) before the year is through.

That's a frightening prospect when you're entering the stretch drive of a Pennant race with your season potentially on the line. Do you really want to see either of those inexperienced pitchers in meaningful games in September, with the season potentially hanging in the balance? How fair would that be to a pair of 23-year-olds?

But the Sox may have no other reasonable choice. Truthfully, this may be as good as it gets.

On Monday, teams began putting players on trade waivers, a process that will continue throughout August. Clubs with the worst records get first dibs, in ascending order of record.

While many teams will attempt to dump salary, some may be planning ahead and adding for next year, while others will simply try to block their closest competitors. That's how second place could potentially be an advantage to the Red Sox. However, the Rays could throw a wrench in the works just to thwart the Sox.

But let's face it; great pitchers aren't typically found in August. The Paul Byrd's of the world are what's usually available. That means the Red Sox aren't likely to pull a difference maker off the waiver wire, so don't hold your breath.

Theo Epstein publicly stated that he didn’t feel there would be any quality pitching available after the July 31 deadline. Take him at his word.

The Sox have 56 games remaining, or just over a third of the season. There is still time to get it right, but considering that three-fifths of the rotation is ineffective, it's hard to be optimistic.

After Josh Becket and Jon Lester, the Sox just roll the dice each time another starter takes the mound, and that probably won't get them into the post-season.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

If Only Victor Martinez Could Pitch

In last year's ALCS, the Red Sox were outgunned offensively by the Rays. The loss of Mike Lowell, due to a hip injury, hurt the Sox considerably.

After Lowell's subsequent surgery, there were concerns that he wouldn't be 100% ready and completely effective this season, which is why the Sox made a bid for Mark Teixeira during the winter. When that fell through, the Sox brass held its collective breath and hoped for the best.

To the surprise of many, the season started well for both Lowell and the Sox. But when he faltered due to his still healing labrum, the rest of the offense faltered with him.

The Sox initially added Adam LaRoche to the lineup. But he isn't the type of player who could single-handedly buoy the Sox lagging offense. The left-handed first baseman was simply an insurance plan in case a larger deal couldn't be consummated.

In Victor Martinez, the Sox found the versatile weapon they were looking for; a switch-hitting first baseman/catcher who can also DH effectively.

And, in a move that seemed a bit peculiar at first glance, the Sox also dealt for Casey Kotchman. Another left-handed first baseman, Kotchman has less power than LaRoche (6 HR this season). However, the addition of Martinez made that less important. The Sox simply felt Kotchman could handle being a part time player better than LaRoche. The at-bats and playing time will be diminished with the multi-faceted Martinez on the roster, a player who can catch and play first, as well as DH. Most of all, LaRoche is a free agent after this season, but the Sox can control Kotchman for the next 2-3 years.

The acquisition of Martinez was a coup for the Red Sox. The Venezuelan native is a high character, solid clubhouse leader who will fit in well this year and next. However, he is not the long term solution at catcher.

Scouts note that Martinez is not great defensively, doesn't have a great arm, and regularly squatting behind the plate makes his legs fatigue, which affects his hitting. In addition, he's 30-years-old and has never caught a knuckleball.

Martinez is making $5.7 million this season, and the Sox can bring him back for $7 million next year. After that, he will be eligible for free agency.

To obtain Martinez, the Sox surrendered Justin Masterson, plus minor league pitchers Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price. Masterson will likely be a very solid starter (which the Indians plan to use him as next year), but he needs to learn to get lefties out. And scouts think Hagadone will be a very good big league pitcher. It would have been fun watching him develop in the Sox organization.

However, the Sox hung onto Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa, all of whom are either in the Majors or could be very soon. The rotation will need new blood next year; John Smoltz and Brad Penny will be gone. And although Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield will both likely be back, that still leaves at least one open spot.

Wakefield is now 43 and can't pitch forever. He's been on the DL for three consecutive years, and requires a specialty catcher that can handle the knuckleball. Those things make him a liability. It's yet to be determined if Martinez can effectively be his battery-mate.

All in all, getting Martinez was a good move, especially considering that the Sox didn't have to give up their very best prospects.

That said, the Sox may eventually regret not trading Buchholz when his value was at his zenith. He will be 25 this month and is not developing as anticipated.

The Texas native has not made it out of the sixth inning in any of his four starts this year, and his ERA is 6.05. That's especially worrisome considering that last season he was 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA.

There is still time for him to shine, but that time is running out. If he continues on this path, the word "bust" will be tossed around liberally and his value will have plummeted precipitously.

It would be unfortunate if Buchholz becomes the latest cautionary tale in over-hyping and over-valuing a prospect, and then refusing to trade him for a quality Major Leaguer when his value is peaking.

Brad Penny has not gone seven innings in any of his 20 starts this season, which is the most in the Majors. It's also the longest single-season streak by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954. He is currently 7-5 with a lofty 5.07 ERA.

John Smoltz is 42, recovering from shoulder surgery, has a 2-4 record, and a 7.12 ERA.

In their last starts, Buchholz, Penny, and Smoltz have combined for 15 innings, 24 hits, and 19 earned runs. That has hurt the bullpen, and it cannot continue.

All of which makes it clear that the Red Sox need a pitcher and may have missed a vital opportunity at the deadline. They might soon regret that.

It wasn't for lack of tying; we now know that Theo Epstein made creative bids for Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, before landing Martinez.

If only Victor Martinez could pitch.

However, the Sox needed ofense too, and they addresed that with Martinez, but not before exhausting all attempts to secure Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres. We may not have seen the last of that foray.

The Red Sox and Padres could certainly rekindle those trade talks in the offseason. Casey Kotchman, under control for the next two seasons, could be a component in such a deal. That flexibility made Kotchman more attractive than LaRoche, who is a free agent at season's end.

Under such a scenario, Martinez would assume full-time catching duties, but that creates problems, as earlier noted.

Ultimately, the Sox needed a starter and couldn't make it happen. They can only hope that more of their vaunted prospects continue to pan out. But does anybody really think that either Bowden or Tazawa is ready to step up this year and help the Sox in a Pennant drive, much less in October?

Does anyone really envision Dice-K being the rotation's savior, swooping into Fenway wearing a cape emblazoned with the Japanese rising sun? Unlikely.

The truth is, as presently constructed, the Red Sox do not have a playoff-caliber pitching staff. And the August waiver period is unlikely to change that. Paul Byrd was not the answer last year, and pitchers of that caliber are usually all that's available at this time of year.

Aside from that, all lesser teams can block the Sox in any attempt to land another starter anyway.

That spells trouble for the Olde Towne Team. They needed offense indeed, and Martinez will surely help in that regard.

But they also need pitching, and there seems to be no answer in sight.

If only Victor Martinez could pitch.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Big Papi is a Big Cheater

Now We Know Why Papi Doesn't Play So Big Anymore

"Ban 'em for the whole year."

That was Red Sox slugger David Ortiz's suggestion on what to do with MLB players who test positive for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs). At least that's what he said during Spring Training.

I wonder how Ortiz feels now?

Care to put your money where your mouth is, David?

When Ortiz was asked about the revelations of a 2003 drug test before today's game, he told The New York Times: "I'm not talking about that anymore. I have no comment."

Sorry, David, but that just won't do. You took a very strong public stance against PEDs and the players who use them, so there's no backing down or ducking out now. You've got some explaining to do.

As for Manny Ramirez, also implicated as a PED user today (which was already old news), the guy just seems to be bullet proof. Manny has always believed that he is different than everyone else and that he gets to operate under a different set of rules.

But Manny is not the Red Sox' problem anymore. He's a Dodger now. Earlier this month LA fans gleefully welcomed him back from a 50-game suspension for using a female fertility drug. Perhaps Manny is attempting to become the first ever pregnant man.

Manny just motors along, unfazed in Manny Land. His personal mantra seems to be, "What, me worry?"

Ortiz and Ramirez were both iconic figures in Boston. They were heroes to Red Sox Nation and idolized by children. But both have now proven to be cheaters, plain and simple. And both are terrible role models to the kids who adore and cheer for them.

So much for rules. So much for ethics. So much for integrity. So much for "playing the game the right way," as players so often love to intone.

Like A-Rod, Sammy Sosa and likely Barry Bonds before them, Ortiz and Ramirez are both liars, cheaters and frauds.

Today's revelation explains once and for all why Ortiz's career has suddenly fallen off a cliff. Quite clearly, Ortiz's performance is no longer enhanced.

It's all so ugly and shameful. The news will only put further pressure on Theo Epstein to make a trade in an attempt to change the headlines in Boston.

As it is, the Red Sox are already the focus of a circus-like media atmosphere at home. Aside from New York, no city has as many reporters covering its team.

This story will become a focal point and take on a life of its own in Boston – just what the slumping Red Sox don't need right now.

Due to his rather rapid and stunning decline, the shine has already come off Ortiz in Red Sox Nation. Today's sad revelation should only serve to tarnish and diminish his once legendary exploits.

Ortiz was always beloved by Red Sox fans. But those fans can't pretend that there are two sets of rules. If they condemned Bonds, Sosa and A-Rod, they should be consistent and condemn Ortiz as well.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Rice Was Always Worthy

Jim Rice was the most feared hitter in the American League over a 12-year span. That says it all.

But for 14 years, Rice failed to garner enough votes for entrance into the Hall of Fame. This year, with a weak field of candidates, Rice had his best, and last, opportunity. And now, finally, he gets to join the other all-time greats in the hallowed halls of Cooperstown.

Why it took so long is difficult to figure.

Rice deserved an earlier entrance. In an era when power numbers are suspiciously viewed through the lens of steroids and other performance enhancers, Rice's production over the course of his 14 years merited additional consideration.

While it's often said that Rice played 16 seasons in the Majors, he didn't.

Rice was a September call up in 1974 and had only 67 at bats in 24 games. It wasn't enough to qualify him as a rookie, so it's not enough to be considered a season.

Furthermore, Rice played only 56 games in 1989, his final season. That year, Rice had just 209 at bats. To qualify for a batting title, a player must have at least 400 at bats. In a typical season, an everyday player might see as many as 600 at bats.

So, the reality is that Rice played just 14 seasons, and in that time he amassed absolutely phenomenal statistics.

If Rice had just sat out those 56 games in 1989 – when his eyesight had long since failed him – he would have finished his career with a .300 average. Many believe that if Rice had simply lifted his average a measly .002 points that he'd have been inducted to the Hall years ago.

An argument used against Rice was that he wasn't a great fielder. Dale Murphy, another player of Rice's era who has also been a borderline candidate, was a five time Gold Glove winner. Yet, his career fielding percentage is just .002 higher than Rice's. Either the criteria for a Gold Glove wasn't as strict in the National League or Rice was simply overlooked. Believe it or not, from 1975-1986 Rice led the American League in outfield assists. Simply put, he was always underated as a defensive player.

Rice's numbers are impressive -- 382 homers, 1,451 RBI -- and they aren't tainted. We lived through an era era when the 40-homer season became common and when the achievements of Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds -- the three best power hitters of their generation -- are highly dubious.

Yet, there is no such suspicion of Rice.

Sure, Rice fell short of the 400 career homer mark, which used to almost assure election. But his accomplishments over a 12-year span were nothing short of spectacular, though clearly under-appreciated. Rice was the most dominant hitter of his time, outshining all of his contemporaries. That alone qualifies him for the Hall.

Longtime Red Sox public relations executive Dick Bresciani issued a highly-detailed, four-page report on Rice's achievements and the former left fielder owes Bresciani a debt of gratitude. That report surely had an influence on the Baseball Writers of America.

When it comes to stats, Rice's were considerable. Red Sox fans who witnessed his exploits have always had a bias toward his selection, but Rice's numbers speak loudly and convincingly for him.

Though some have argued that Rice wasn't great for a long enough period of time, for a period of 12 years -- 1975-86 -- Rice led all American League players in 12 different offensive categories, including home runs (350), RBI (1,276), total bases (3,670), slugging percentage (.520), runs (1,098) and hits (2,145). The other categories were games, at-bats, extra base hits, multiple hit games, go-ahead RBI, and the previously mentioned outfield assists.

What these statistics bear out is that over this remarkable period Rice was not only durable, but consistent and clutch as well.

During that span, Rice averaged 29 homers, 106 RBI, 91 runs scored and a .303 average. Though his career slugging percentage is .502, Rice wasn't just a power hitter – he was a hitter, plain and simple. In four of those seasons he collected over 200 hits. He hit .300 or better seven times and he hit .290 or better nine times.

Put Rice's accomplishments in context: he led every player in his league in virtually every significant offensive category for twelve consecutive years. Even if you add in all of the National League players from the same era, Rice still leads in five categories and finishes second in three others.

Finishing first or second in eight different categories for a dozen years means that Rice is certainly well qualified for the Hall. If Kirby Puckett was deserving, Rice is more deserving.

Some say that if Rice had just hit 18 more homers and lifted his .298 career batting average a mere two points, that his election would have be guaranteed a lot earlier. Perhaps, but that's splitting hairs.

Rice dominated his era, finishing in the top five in the MVP voting six times in an eight-year span, more than any other player between 1963 and 2005.

He won the MVP award in 1978, when he collected a staggering 406 total bases, becoming the first American League player to crack 400 since Joe Dimaggio. During that phenomenal year, Rice also hit .315, had 213 hits, 46 home runs, 139 RBI and amassed a .600 slugging percentage.

An eight-time All Star, Rice led the AL in homers three times, RBI twice, and total bases four times. He is the only player in Major League history with three consecutive seasons of 35 homers and 200 hits. He led the AL in total bases for three straight seasons, tying a record held by Ted Williams and Ty Cobb. Furthermore, Rice, Babe Ruth and Jimmy Foxx are the only players in AL history with three consecutive 39-homer, .315 average seasons. Enough said.

Lest anyone need more convincing, feel free to measure Rice against the all-time greats. Among all Major Leaguers, only nine players have compiled as high a career batting average and as many homers. They are: Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Hank Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays and Stan Musial.

All of them are in the Hall of Fame and Rice has finally joined them -- where he rightfully belongs.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

The Red Sox Offense has been Offensive

July has not been kind to the previously formidable Red Sox offense

Though the Red Sox remain fourth in the AL in runs scored, it's truly hard to believe right now. For the past month, the Sox offense has looked positively anemic. It says a lot about their pre-July production.

Throughout the Red Sox order, there is a glaring deficiency; most of these guys simply aren't hitting right now. At .261, the Red Sox team batting average has fallen into the bottom half of the AL.

Players generally expected to perform at a high level are doing anything but. Eight Red Sox players are hitting below .260, including Jason Bay (.252), JD Drew (.233) and David Ortiz (.228).

Bay's slump is hard to figure. A lifetime .279 hitter, the All Star has 20 homers and 72 RBI so far this season. But Bay has suddenly hit the skids. The left fielder has just one homer in the past month, covering 23 games. In that same period he has just three RBI and four extra-base hits. It's been one very ugly month for the Canadian native.

But, in his case, it's probably just a typical midseason slump that he will soon snap out of. Bay has a strong track record and it's a good bet he is poised to breakout. Over the past five seasons Bay has averaged 29 HR and 95 RBI, while batting .282.

JD Drew, on the other hand, is another story altogether. Since coming to Boston as a free agent three years ago, Drew has been a huge disappointment.

The Red Sox signed Drew to be a middle-of-the-order hitter, based on his "sweet swing" and lots of perceived promise. But in the ten previous seasons, Drew had hit .300 twice, hit 30 homers once, and drove in 100 runs once. None of that warranted paying him $14 million per season, especially since no other team was stepping up to do so. The Sox are now paying for their ill-advised decision, both literally and figuratively.

In his 2 1/2 years in Boston, Drew has 42 HR, 166 RBI, 213 runs, 10 SB, and a .261 average. The Sox' $75 million investment hasn't gotten them much. Even when the Sox signed him three years ago, Drew was a whole lot more hype than hope. Julio Lugo was a bust indeed, but Drew cost the Sox a whole lot more. And Lugo didn't come with all the same hype and hoopla as Drew. The expectations of Drew have been a lot higher and he has failed miserably to live up to them.

Over his first five seasons in Boston, David Ortiz became a folk hero. He came to Boston as a Minnesota castaway, with no hype and no expectations whatsoever. In that time he became known as the "greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history, and in 2006 set the team's single-season home run record with 54 moon shots.

But last year his season was cut short due to wrist surgery. Truthfully, he's never been the same since 2007. More than ever, Ortiz looks overweight, slow-swinging, and old. Could he really be just 33?

Despite the widespread hope that Ortiz was coming out of his early season slump, he isn't. It's late July and this is simply the new reality for Ortiz. In three of his six previous seasons with the Sox, Ortiz hit at least .300. That now seems like a long time ago. Sadly, Ortiz's career seems to have suddenly gone over a cliff. It's hard to get excited about his 12 homers when he has a .315 OBP and isn't even batting his hefty weight.

We love David Ortiz for all he's done for the Red Sox. He was a key part of two World Series championships and helped make the Red Sox a powerhouse. He brought life and excitement to the team and was always fun to watch. But those days are long since over.

Though he's hit an improbable 13 home runs – matching his total from all of last year – Jason Varitek is hitting 30 points below his career average. And it's important to note that his .261 carer average was pulled down by batting .220 last year. At this point, Varitek is no longer overpaid. But he isn't much of an offensive threat either.

With just 288 career at-bats, Jed Lowrie is still a work in progress, and perhaps just an inexpensive, low-expectation experiment. Though he's had just 28 at-bats this season, he is batting a mere .107 and is 2 for 10 since his return from the DL.

George Kottras, though only playing every five days, makes us grateful for that. So far he hitting just .213 with 1 HR and 9 RBI in 33 games this season. At this point, it seems clear that he is not Jason Varitek's successor, nor the long term solution to the Sox' catching quandary.

After a hot start, Nick Green has fallen back to earth, and is now hitting .250. But considering his solid defensive play, and how little was expected of the non-roster Spring Training invitee, Green has been a blessing in the absence of Jed Lowrie and the continued demise of Julio Lugo.

Rounding out this group of tepid Red Sox hitters is Mark Kotsay, who is currently batting .257, 24 points below his career average. Having hit a combined total of 15 homers over the past four seasons, he is not a deep threat or a prototypical first baseman or corner infielder. That's because the natural center fielder has been playing out of position since coming to the Sox last August. The true team player has done an admirable job of filling in wherever and whenever Terry Francona has asked him.

Though he plays solid defense and by all accounts is well-liked by his teammates and coaches, Kotsay looks like the odd man out in a pending numbers game. The Sox will have to trim their 25-man roster by one to make room for the newly acquired Adam LaRoche, a true first baseman and power hitter. It seems that Kotsay's time in a Sox uniform may be running out.

It's obvious that LaRoche is not the sole answer to the Red Sox offensive struggles, but they hope he can provide a bit of thump to a lackluster lineup.

The Red Sox offensive malaise has spread throughout the clubhouse like a contagion, and hopefully a couple of hitters will come around soon. But as the numbers dictate, the Sox offense is not bolstered by enough good hitters, and the club still seems to be at least one potent bat short of being the team to beat in the highly competitive AL East.

That's why the next week could be eventful and even fruitful for the Sox. The funk they're presently mired in makes it highly unlikely that Theo Epstein is done dealing.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

With Trades, Red Sox Attempt to Create Something From Nothing

Since they'll be paying virtually all of his salary for the next season and a half, the Red Sox were able to pawn Julio Lugo off on the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for outfielder Chris Duncan, plus a player to be named later.

For the Cardinals, who lack depth at the shortstop position, Lugo actually represents an upgrade since there is no true backup shortstop on their roster.

The 28-year-old Duncan is the son of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan, and the brother of former Yankee first baseman Shelly Duncan.

Papa Duncan was reportedly none too happy that his son was traded. However, he noted that Chris is happy with the move and that his son has always done better on the road than in St. Louis, so he expected the move would benefit him.

The left-handed hitting Duncan is primarily a left fielder, but also plays first base. He batted .227 (59-for-260) with five home runs and 32 RBIs in 87 games for the Cardinals this season, going 4-for-12 (.333) as a pinch hitter. He ranked second on the club, and was tied for ninth among left-handed National Leaguers, with 41 walks.

But, after a strong April, Duncan went into a funk that he's not ben able to shake. In May, he hit .227 and slugged .386, and in June his slugging percentage fell all the way to .289. Duncan is just 1-for-31, without an extra base-hit, since June 29. He'd also gone over a month without an RBI. His poor play earned the scorn of the St. Louis media and the usually supportive Cardinal fans.

Duncan's season was cut short last July 22nd due to a herniated cervical disk that eventually required surgery. This morning, one year to the day later, he was optioned to the Cardinals AAA affiliate, the Memphis Redbirds, before being traded to the Red Sox.

Over parts of four seasons, the 6'5", 230-pound Duncan has shown some power, notching 55 career homers, or one every 21 at-bats. His most productive season was 2007, when he hit 21 homers with 70 RBI. Before being injured, Duncan, a career .257 hitter, had back-to-back 20-plus homer seasons.

After being acquired by the Red Sox, Duncan was immediately assigned to Pawtucket. The fact that he isn't out of options and could be assigned to Triple A made him a perfect fit for the Sox. The team wasn't required to make a corresponding roster move to accommodate him, a significant part of the reason that Lugo was designated when Jed Lowrie was activated.

This was the best possible scenario for the Red Sox; they were able to get something in return for Lugo instead of simply losing him without compensation. And they got a player with options who won't force additional roster moves, allowing the club greater flexibility.

But the bigger news today was the Red Sox acquisition of Pirates first-baseman Adam LaRoche, who , like Duncan, also has a brother with Major League experience (his former Pirate teammate, Andy).

LaRoche gives the Red Sox a power bat and another option at first base, should the team need Kevin Youkilis to spell Mike Lowell from time to time at third. Lowell is still recovering from hip surgery and it is unknown how much he can be depended on in the second half.

One important note to this signing is that is will result in a corresponding roster move. Which player is demoted, traded, or DL'd remains to be determined.

The 6'3", 205-pound LaRoche has swatted 20 or more homers in each of the last four seasons, and with 12 so far this year is on pace to do so again. In that span, he has averaged 25 homers and 85 RBI. A career .269 hitter, his best season was 2006, when he had 32 HR, 90 RBI, and a .285 average.

However, the slumping first baseman is hitting just .109 since July 4. The good news is that he is a consistently torrid second-half hitter whose career OPS after the All-Star break is .901.

The Sox are hoping this pattern continues and that LaRoche can help spark a club that is hitting just .192 over the six games since the All Star break. In that span, the Sox have scored only 2.2 runs per game, resulting in a 1-5 record.

As further evidence of the Sox significant offense needs right now, six of the nine starers in Wednesday's lineup are hitting less than .260 at present.

The left-handed LaRoche has also shown great defensive prowess at first base, with one error in 836 total chances. He ranks second among NL first basemen with a .999 fielding percentage. The Sox can sub him for the Gold Glover Youkilis at any time and not miss a beat.

The incredible part of the story is that to obtain LaRoche, the Red Sox only had to part with two lesser prospects, shortstop Argenis Diaz, and pitcher Hunter Strickland.

Though a slick-fielding shortstop over six pro seasons, Diaz was hitting just .253 with no homers and 24 RBI for Double A Portland. The willingness of the Sox to trade him says a lot about their belief in minor leaguer Yamaico Navarro, as well as the recently-signed Jose Iglesias and Jose Vinicio, as the likely shortstops of the future.

The 20-year-old Strickland was an 18th-round pick in the 2007 draft. He is 5-4 with a 3.35 ERA in 18 games, including 12 starts, at Greenville. The Sox' incredible pitching depth made him easily expendable.

Now in his sixth season, LaRoche is eligible for free agency this fall. The health of Mike Lowell may determine whether or not the Sox attempt to resign LaRoche in the offseason.

In the meantime, he adds more versatility to the Sox roster and adds some much needed left-handed power to an offense that sorely needs it right now. But his at-bats will come at the expense of not just Lowell but also the light-hitting Mark Kotsay.

Both players are said to approve of the move and hope that it will improve the ball club.

We can only hope it does. One way or the other, the Sox have now added two left-handed hitting first baseman with power to their arsenal. That was something that neither Julio Lugo nor Argenis Diaz could provide them.

That makes these moves savvy, and likely beneficial, in both the near and long terms.

The Julio Lugo Experiment Comes to a Merciful Ending

It was bad for Julio Lugo right from the start.

Lugo called Red Sox management during the winter they signed him, saying he had a sickness that resulted in the loss of 15 or 20 pounds. When he showed up for Spring Training, he lacked both strength and quickness. He started slowly and didn't recover, never again becoming the player he was with Tampa.

Ultimately, Lugo never lived up to the four-year, $36 million contract he signed before the 2007 season. So the Red Sox did what had seemed inevitable for so long and released the disappointing shortstop.

“It’s a sunk cost. I’m sorry it didn’t work out better for Julio, but keeping him on the team wasn’t going to change that,” said GM Theo Epstein.

The Red Sox have been trying to deal the underperforming Lugo since last offseason, but the combination of his lackluster offense, poor defense, and large salary nixed any chance of a deal and the Sox have found no takers.

Though the Red Sox won the World Series with Lugo as the everyday shortstop in 2007, the Sox were just 11-16 when he started at short this season, compared to 42-15 when Nick Green is in the lineup.

According to the Providence Journal, Lugo has gained a reputation around the league as a player who does not work as hard as the players around him. That reputation will make it very difficult for the Red Sox to trade him, especially given the remaining $3.5 million of his $9 million salary for 2009, $9 million for 2010 and a $9 million vesting option in 2011.

His poor work ethic was painfully obvious.

For their 2 1/2 year, $36 million investment, the Red Sox got 10 HR, 103 RBI, and 42 errors from their shortstop. From the get-go, Lugo was a liability at the plate and in the field.

During his time in Boston, Lugo's defensive skills steadily eroded, and he'd made seven errors in 97 chances this season.

Theo Epstein, who signed Lugo, referred to the shortstop's abbreviated tenure as "A lesson learned, for sure.’’

“Sometimes the best organizations make mistakes,” said Epstein. “It was a free-agent signing that didn’t work out. We ended up paying for past performance, not current performance. It was a mistake, and as the decision maker, that’s on me. We’ll move on. We’re a better organization having gone through it and we’ll make better decisions going forward.”

It was always hard to understand Epstein's "man crush" on Lugo. What compelled Epstein to bid against only himself, and offer a pretty average player a four-year, $36 million contract?

After all, Lugo batted a mere .219 with the Dodgers before Eptein made his bid. And he had never scored more than 83 runs, hit more than 15 homers, driven in more than 75 runs, or even batted .300 before joining the Red Sox.

Yet Epstein saw him as the solution to the problem that shortstop had become in Boston.

But Lugo followed up his dismal tenure in LA by batting just .237 in is first year with the Red Sox. And though he raised his average to .268 last season, he was the worst hitter in baseball with runners in scoring position, hitting just .139.

Epstein says his goal is to build the organization from within so it doesn’t have to rely on the free-agent market. Aside from Lowrie, he says organizational players, such as Argenis Diaz and Yamaico Navarro, along with soon-to-be-signed Jose Iglesias and Jose Vinicio, are the likely shortstops of the future.

“You dabble in free agency, sometimes these things happen,’’ Epstein said. “That’s kind of the nature of the beast. We’re trying to grow the organization to a point where we don’t have to go out and get a free agent. We’re probably closer to that point now than we were two or three offseasons ago.’’

We can only hope he's right.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Pedro Martinez: Never Can Say Goodbye

Like Other Greats Before Him, Pedro Just Can't Walk Away

It's tough seeing great athletes get old.

To see a legend in any sport become faded and ineffective is sad, and it's a reminder that we too are getting older. For so many years the elite players seem eternally youthful, vigorous and mighty. At times they can appear almost superhuman.

But, inevitably, age sets in, injuries take their toll and performance declines.

For many premier athletes, it's difficult to know when to hang 'em up and say goodbye. When retirement appears to be the obvious choice to the rest of us, the player is still relatively young and still possesses the fire to play.

It's got to be tough to be told you're old and over the hill when you're not even halfway through your projected life span.

Many athletes are unprepared to give up their true passion – the thing that gave them fame, wealth, glory and even their identity. Most have been playing since childhood, have known no other life, held no other job and just can't imagine living without the game.

Obviously this describes Pedro Martinez. He is a true competitor who loves a challenge.

However, over the last three seasons, Pedro's record is 17-15. In 2006, his ERA reached 4.48 and last season it leapt to 5.61, almost twice has career ERA.

Despite posting a 5-6 record and only 87 strikeouts through 109 innings in 20 starts last season, apparently Pedro can't let go and wants to prove that he's still got it.

After letting it be known that he wanted to pitch again this year, a few teams were intrigued enough to take a look. All but one said, "No thanks."

This week, the Phillies signed the future Hall of Famer to a one-year, $1 million deal. It was quite a come down for a player who was seeking a pro-rated $5 million dollar pact. Pedro had previously been playing under a four-year, $53 million contract that expired during the offseason.

After telling reporters this spring that he wouldn't accept the one-year, $1 million offer that his former Mets teammate Tom Glavine signed with the Braves, Pedro ultimately did just that.

Apparently, reality got in the way of other plans. But reality clearly isn't dictating any of Pedro's actions these days.

We've seen this movie before. Too many great athlestes have stayed around too long, embarrassing themselves and diminishing their great legacies in the process: Willie Mays, OJ Simpson, Joe Namath, Emmitt Smith, Mario Lemieux, Muhammed Ali and Evander Holyfield all come to mind. Nobody likes to see former greats look feeble and humbled.

It will be unfortunate if Pedro blemishes his stellar career by continuing to pitch the way he did last year or the past few years, when his shoulder was toast.

The 37-year-old has a career record of 214-99, and a .684 winning percentage – the third highest of the modern, Post-WW II era, behind only Whitey Ford’s .690 and Don Gullett’s .686. He entered 2008 tied with Ford, but fell behind due to his poor and ineffective play.

No matter, Pedro has the second highest winning percentage in Major League history for pitchers with at least 200 career victories.

Despite his injuries and diminished performance over the past three seasons, Pedro has nothing left to prove. Despite his comparatively small stature, he was a giant of the game and reached the pinnacle of the sport on many levels.

If he didn't pitch again, Pedro would have joined Bob Caruthers and Al Spaulding as the only pitchers with more than 200 wins and fewer than 100 losses in their careers. So much for that distinction.

Yet, Pedro is one of 21 pitchers who has a career record 100+ games over .500.

He also has the best-ever career adjusted ERA, which measures the pitcher’s career ERA against his league’s ERA over the pitcher’s entire career. On average, throughout his career, Pedro’s ERA has been 1.68 points below the league average.

He is also just the 15th pitcher in MLB history with 3,000 strikeouts, and just the fourth to reach the milestone with fewer than 1000 walks (752). In addition, he is just one of three pitchers (Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson) to record 3000 Ks in fewer than 3000 innings.

When you consider that he pitched during the greatest offensive period in baseball history, it's all quite amazing.

But he is not that same pitcher anymore, and never again will be. Many of us will choose to remember Pedro for what he was during his prime, rather than what he is now. It's too bad he can't do the same.

It's so much better to remember the Pedro who was so dominant from 1997-2005, rather than the worn out, broken down pitcher we witnessed over the last three years.

As Perdro himself noted, "I gave it up the last few years. I wasn't the same Pedro Martinez that you're accustomed to seeing. . . . I think I was too brave sometimes. I was stupid sometimes for pitching and knowing that I wasn't in the regular health that you should be in. . . . The last few years have been horrible."

True, true and true.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Wakefield to Make First All Star Appearance

If there's one player Red Sox fans will feel happiest for and most proud of this Tuesday, it will be Tim Wakefield.

The 17-year veteran was one of six Red Sox players selected to represent the club at this year's mid-summer classic, joining Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, Josh Beckett, and Jonathan Papelbon.

With the notable exception of Wakefield, none of them is older than 30. Yet the elder statesman is the only first-timer among them.

The 42-year-old Wakefield became the oldest player to make his first All-Star team since Satchel Paige. Perhaps the greatest Negro League pitcher of all time, Paige went to his first Major League All-Star Game in 1952 at the age of 46.

Jamie Moyer (40 in 2003) and Connie Marrero (40 in 1951) are the only other players to become All-Stars for the first time at age 40 or older.

For Wakefield it is a career achievement, and one he's longed dreamed of.

"When you go and play professional baseball, you always want to make an All-Star team," said Wakefield. "I've had opportunities, but have just never gotten the chance."

Though Wakefield wasn't voted in by his peers, AL All-Star manager Joe Maddon of the Rays personally selected the knuckleballer. And after 17 years in the majors, the veteran pitcher is grateful.

"Obviously, when I see Maddon, I'll thank him deeply for the opportunity to represent not only the Red Sox but the American League at the All-Star Game. I'm very excited about it," said Wakefield of the honor.

The All Star selection is just the latest in what's been a season of milestone's for Wakefield, who has now made the most career starts of any Red Sox pitcher (384) as well as the most career starts at Fenway (191).

Never having won more than 17 games in any season (which he's done twice), Wakefield enters the break tied for the Major League lead with 11 wins, to go along with just 3 losses, Before the year is through, Wakefield could cap his highlight season by reaching 20 victories.

Wakefield has undoubtedly benefitted from solid offensive support, with the Red Sox averaging more than six runs a game when he has taken the mound.

And while his 4.31 ERA and 61/37 K/BB ratio aren't typical All Star material, Wakefield's 12 quality starts are just one shy of Josh Beckett's for the staff lead. And they're good enough for 15th in the AL.

The wily veteran has been consistent all season long, failing to pitch into the 6th inning just three times in 17 starts, and giving up more than three earned runs in just six of those starts.

The All Star selection is a crowning jewel in a long career that has already seen two World Series victories. And before the season is over, Wakefield may have won his 200th career game, pitched his 3000th career inning, and collected his 2000th career strikeout.

Not bad for a guy who has long been viewed as an end of the rotation starter, and a one-pitch, one-trick pony. Needless to say, that one pitch has clearly served him well.

As always, there will be many story lines on Tuesday evening. But seeing a 42-year-old make his first All Star appearance will surely be the feel-good story of the game, and one of the most compelling of the season – not just for Red Sox fans, but for all fans of baseball.

With Smoltz, is This as Good as it Gets?

John Smoltz came to Boston with very impressive credentials; 210 wins, 154 saves, a 3.26 ERA, and 3,011 strike outs. In fact, Smoltz is the only pitcher in history with a combination of 200 wins and 150 saves.

Red Sox Nation was ecstatic; a future first ballot Hall of Famer would be taking the mound every fifth day from June through September, and hopefully in October as well.

That was the whole intention in the Sox' signing of Smoltz in the first place; October - the post-season.

But there were a few red flags from the outset. For starters, Smoltz is 42 and coming off major shoulder surgery. The veteran's right labrum, the one that secures his throwing arm, was repaired last June. His baseball future was immediately placed in jeopardy, so much that the Braves decided to end their 20-year association with him.

However, Smoltz had previously undergone four separate surgeries on his pitching elbow, and had come back strong after each. He missed the entire 2000 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but moved to the bullpen upon his return and recorded 154 saves over three-plus seasons as the Braves' closer.

The difference this time was that he was over the age of 40, when the body loses its ability to heal as quickly, or as fully.

But the Red Sox and their fans were cautiously optimistic. In the case of many fans, perhaps overly optimistic.

Though it's a pretty small sample size, Smoltz's early results are not encouraging.

After three starts, Smoltz is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA. It wasn't until his most recent start, on Monday, that he finally made it to the sixth inning. In 15 innings so far this season, Smoltz has allowed 20 hits and 11 earned runs.

Yes, it's early and, as noted, the sample size is still small. But the Red Sox have to prepare themselves for the possibility that this is as good as it gets. One way or the other, Smoltz's best years are behind him now. That's generally the case with 42-year-old pitchers, particularly those returning from reconstructive surgery.

Indeed, Jamie Moyer (46), Randy Johnson (45) and Tim Wakefield (42) are still pitching, but only Wakefield is doing so effectively. Johnson is now on the DL. Both he and Moyer look like they are best-suited for something other than playing baseball at this point.

The Sox still have high hopes for Smoltz, but it's probably best for the team and its fans to temper those hopes, if they haven't been already.

Smoltz hasn't forgotten how to pitch, and he may well have some successful, if not dominant, outings ahead of him. But it's a good bet that he'll continue to struggle and to feel his age.

It's important to remember that the Red Sox knew what they were getting from the beginning. Theo Epstein consistently referred to Smoltz as a "low cost, high reward" signing.

The Red Sox were fully aware of Smoltz's health history from Day One and were operating under the auspices of caveat emptor. Though they were aware, the reality may now be setting in.

Hopefully Smoltz is just getting warmed up and is poised for a strong second half.

Time will tell.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.