As the Red Sox approach the July 31, non-waiver trade deadline, they find their roster decimated by injuries.
With Manny Delcarmen and Jason Varitek joining the ranks of the wounded, the Red Sox now have 10 players on the disabled list — five since June 24.
Going into last night's game, Red Sox players had missed a total of 424 games to the DL this season. And yet the team just keeps on winning. The Red Sox are now just a half game out of first place, the closest they've been since the second game of the season.
In May, the playoffs seemed like a long shot and there was even speculation that the Red Sox could be uncustomary sellers at the deadline.
Clearly, that will not be the case.
The Red Sox may seek to make additions that will improve the team for the season's final 2-2 1/2 months. But soon after the All Start break, the club will benefit from the returns of Josh Beckett, Jeremy Hermida, and perhaps even Jacoby Ellsbury.
For what it's worth, Jed Lowrie (remember him?) will begin a rehab assignment on Monday in Lowell. He was supposed to be the Sox' utility infielder this season and may be ready before Dustin Pedroia. Lowrie is still just 26-years-old and quite talented. His wrist must be fully healed by now and his bout with mono behind him.
And after the deadline passes, the Red Sox should finally be able to field the starting lineup they had envisioned on Opening Day, seeing the returns of Pedroia, Varitek, Delcarmen and Victor Martinez.
As a result, it's unlikely management will make any desperate moves to fill roster spots.
Even with Mike Cameron playing at about 50% capacity, the team continues to win with the likes of minor leaguers Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava and Eric Patterson. In addition, journeyman Bill Hall has played a much larger role than anyone could have reasonably envisioned.
Incredibly, despite this unlikely cast of characters, the team hasn't just been holding its own, it's been gaining ground on the Yankees. As long as the Sox don't start to slide too far, too fast, the team will make-do primarily with what they've got.
The one area the Sox could conceivably seek to improve the team via trade is the bullpen, which is next to last in the AL with a 4.80 ERA and has allowed the most home runs (35).
However, a trade could be a dicey proposition. The club will be loathe to give up a formidable prospect for a short term solution in the pen. Anyone remember Larry Andersen for Jef Bagwell?
Trades for bullpen pitchers often regrettable; you usually end up overpaying. On top of that, middle relievers are notoriously unreliable and streaky. At best, you might get a journeyman who is in the midst of a good season. There's a reason these guys change teams all the time; inconsistency.
Ultimately, middle relievers are not good enough to start, and not god enough to close either.
That's why the Red Sox may go with in-house solutions, such as their own minor leaguers.
Robert Manuel has a 1.54 ERA at Pawtucket, and righthanders were hitting just .154 against him. In addition, his career WHIP is just 1.06 in the minors.
Once one of the most highly regarded pitchers in the organization, Michael Bowden seemed to regress, but has looked good this season. Bowden has a 3.77 ERA at Pawtucket, leading all starters with a 1.10 WHIP, and leading the team with 59 strike outs.
Dustin Richardson, already on the 25-man roster, could become the primary lefty out of the pen, instead of Hideki Okajima. The Japanese reliever has been in continual decline and his last four appearances have produced six runs on 10 hits over three innings. Opponents were 10 for 19 against him.
Lastly, Felix Dubront is another in-house candidate. In 26.2 innings at Pawtucket this season, the lefty has allowed just 22 hits while striking out 24. He's walked just nine batters, has a 1.16 WHIP to go along with a 2.36 ERA. Dubront made one start for the Red Sox this season, going five innings and allowing five runs on six hits.
Each of these pitchers represents a young arm that will not require a costly or regrettable trade. In a trade scenario, the Sox could end up essentially renting a bullpen arm for just two months, then losing the player to free agency at season's end.
Theo Epstein and co. have shown restraint thus far, trading only for old friend Kevin Cash. And that deal was consummated only because both catchers on the active roster went down with injuries. Minor League catchers Mark Wagner and Dusty Brown are both also on the DL.
It's as if the Red Sox have been struck by a plague.
July is the month when most trades are made. This is when clubs determine if they are buyers or sellers, based on their records and their playoff chances. Trades will heat up, but it isn't likely the Red Sox will be involved in any blockbusters.
Perhaps a veteran bullpen arm will be obtained, but not at the expense of a minor leaguer the Sox envision as part of their future.
The more likely scenario is that the team will give a shot to one of the young pitchers in their own system before making any moves they may come to regret later.
Relievers are a dicy lot. They can be costly gambles and major disappointments.
Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don't make at all.
Saturday, July 03, 2010
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Both Armando Galarraga and the Game of Baseball Deserve Better Than This
By now, baseball fans across the nation have seen the video, and the photographic evidence. Armando Galarraga was robbed of a once in a lifetime opportunity – a perfect game. He was robbed of a very special place in the record books. And he was robbed before our eyes, for the whole world to see.
Umpire Jim Joyce admits he blew the call.
"I just cost that kid a perfect game," Joyce said after the game. "I thought he beat the throw. I was convinced he beat the throw, until I saw the replay."
"It was the biggest call of my career," said Joyce, with regret.
All of the Tigers were either stunned or outraged, except for Galarraga, who simply and quietly went back to work as the Detroit crowd booed angrily. Galarraga's manager, Jim Leyland, and his teammates gave Joyce an earful, letting their opinions be heard loud and clear.
"I don't blame them a bit or anything that was said," Joyce said. "I would've said it myself if I had been Galarraga. I would've been the first person in my face, and he never said a word to me."
That just proves that Galarraga is a class act. He deserves better than this. And Joyce's contrition doesn't change the fact that Galarraga will forever live with this unfortunate injustice.
Yet, it was entirely correctable. By the time of Joyce's miscall, 26 consecutive outs had been recorded. And on the play in question, it is abundantly clear that the 27 out was also recorded, without any hitter truly reaching base.
MLB and Commissioner Bud Selig had a chance to make this right for Galarraga, his teammates, the game of baseball, and for posterity. Selig knows what the rest of us know; Jason Donald was out and Galarraga earned a perfect game fairly and squarely.
Yet, Selig has announced that he will not overturn the incorrect call, right this wrong, and award Galarraga his perfect game. The only thing Selig has agreed to review is instant replay, which should already be in effect anyway.
Baseball is a game of history and tradition that goes back a century-and-a-half. And it is rightly proud of most of it. Yet, we are now living in the 21st Century, not the !9th. It's long since time for instant replay. All of the other major sports employ it, and neither history nor tradition is more important than getting the right call. The game and its players deserve it.
The bottom line is that the fans at home watching instant-replay on TV, and those in the stands viewing the Jumbotron, shouldn't know what an umpire doesn't, yet should, know. Within moments, even they can easily see the error of their ways, yet they can't overturn an erroneous call. That's inexcusable. The best thing about instant reply is that it is instant.
Galarraga is the most unlikely pitcher to throw a near-perfect game. He's 28 and was just recalled from Triple-A Toledo on May 16 after pitching poorly during spring training. He lost out in a competition for the final spot in the rotation to Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson, both of whom have since been traded.
But on one night he was perfect. Yet Jim Joyce wasn't. And that's okay. It's understandable. To err is human. It's widely noted that nobody is perfect. But last might, Armando Glarraga was.
This injustice was fixable. But Bud Selig chose history and tradition over honesty and integrity, not to mention modern technology. We've learned a lot about Galarraga and Joyce from this unfortunate event. As for Bud Selig, this only reinforces what we already knew; he is stubborn, rigid, and stuck in the past.
The record books may indicate that only 20 perfect games have been thrown in MLB history, and incredibly two of them were this year – a first. Yet everyone now knows that there was a 21st last night. Armando Galarraga, and his perfect performance on one June night, will not be forgotten by history.
Umpire Jim Joyce admits he blew the call.
"I just cost that kid a perfect game," Joyce said after the game. "I thought he beat the throw. I was convinced he beat the throw, until I saw the replay."
"It was the biggest call of my career," said Joyce, with regret.
All of the Tigers were either stunned or outraged, except for Galarraga, who simply and quietly went back to work as the Detroit crowd booed angrily. Galarraga's manager, Jim Leyland, and his teammates gave Joyce an earful, letting their opinions be heard loud and clear.
"I don't blame them a bit or anything that was said," Joyce said. "I would've said it myself if I had been Galarraga. I would've been the first person in my face, and he never said a word to me."
That just proves that Galarraga is a class act. He deserves better than this. And Joyce's contrition doesn't change the fact that Galarraga will forever live with this unfortunate injustice.
Yet, it was entirely correctable. By the time of Joyce's miscall, 26 consecutive outs had been recorded. And on the play in question, it is abundantly clear that the 27 out was also recorded, without any hitter truly reaching base.
MLB and Commissioner Bud Selig had a chance to make this right for Galarraga, his teammates, the game of baseball, and for posterity. Selig knows what the rest of us know; Jason Donald was out and Galarraga earned a perfect game fairly and squarely.
Yet, Selig has announced that he will not overturn the incorrect call, right this wrong, and award Galarraga his perfect game. The only thing Selig has agreed to review is instant replay, which should already be in effect anyway.
Baseball is a game of history and tradition that goes back a century-and-a-half. And it is rightly proud of most of it. Yet, we are now living in the 21st Century, not the !9th. It's long since time for instant replay. All of the other major sports employ it, and neither history nor tradition is more important than getting the right call. The game and its players deserve it.
The bottom line is that the fans at home watching instant-replay on TV, and those in the stands viewing the Jumbotron, shouldn't know what an umpire doesn't, yet should, know. Within moments, even they can easily see the error of their ways, yet they can't overturn an erroneous call. That's inexcusable. The best thing about instant reply is that it is instant.
Galarraga is the most unlikely pitcher to throw a near-perfect game. He's 28 and was just recalled from Triple-A Toledo on May 16 after pitching poorly during spring training. He lost out in a competition for the final spot in the rotation to Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson, both of whom have since been traded.
But on one night he was perfect. Yet Jim Joyce wasn't. And that's okay. It's understandable. To err is human. It's widely noted that nobody is perfect. But last might, Armando Glarraga was.
This injustice was fixable. But Bud Selig chose history and tradition over honesty and integrity, not to mention modern technology. We've learned a lot about Galarraga and Joyce from this unfortunate event. As for Bud Selig, this only reinforces what we already knew; he is stubborn, rigid, and stuck in the past.
The record books may indicate that only 20 perfect games have been thrown in MLB history, and incredibly two of them were this year – a first. Yet everyone now knows that there was a 21st last night. Armando Galarraga, and his perfect performance on one June night, will not be forgotten by history.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Red Sox Suddenly Coming Alive
The poor start to the Red Sox season came as a surprise to many. Especially since the offense, which seemed suspect to many at the start of the season, has been a force.
The Red Sox are fourth in baseball in runs, second in homers, third in doubles, fourth in OPS, and sixth in OBP. And they've done all that without Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron for most of the season.
However, the team built on pitching and defense has been surprisingly deficient in both areas for much of the season.
The Red Sox starter's cumulative ERA of 4.54 is 21st in MLB and ninth in the AL. That's something no one could have predicted, especially with a front three of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and John Lackey.
And far too often, Red Sox fielders have looked like the Keystone Kops on defense. At times, their bumbling futility has been nothing short of jaw-dropping. But some of those dramatic and egregious misplays have overshadowed the fact that the Red Sox 27 errors are ranked ninth in the AL, and their .985 fielding percentage is fourth in the AL.
Recently the team's defense, pitching, and overall performance, have been trending upward.
The Red Sox have now won four straight, seven of eight, and 15 of 22. And they've succeeded against a succession of winning teams, such as the Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Twins, Phillies, and Rays.
But the Sox started the season terribly against the Rays and Yankees and, despite their recent hot streak, are still 6.5 games out of first as a result. Boston is now 26-21, the first time they've been five games above .500 this season.
There are 115 games yet to play, and if the Sox manage to win 60 percent of their remaining schedule, they'll wind up with 95 wins – exactly the number the club figures it needs to qualify for the playoffs each year.
While finishing in first in the AL East may be a lofty goal at this point, the Wild Card spot suddenly seems a lot more realistic.
The starting pitching finally seems to be coming around and looks like the staff that everyone had been expecting. With the exception of Lackey's last outing, six of their last seven start have been fantastic.
Sox starters are 6-1 with a 1.44 ERA in the last seven games.
There have been some surprises, such as Josh Beckett's 1-1 record and 7.29 ERA.
However, Clay Buchholz seems to have finally delivered on all that promise. Buchholz's 3.07 ERA leads all Sox starters, as do his six wins. And he has the most wins (12) of any AL starter since last August 19.
There are plenty of other reasons for optimism, as well.
Dustin Pedroia's home run and RBI totals are well ahead of his 2008 MVP season.
Adrian Beltre leads the Red Sox with 56 hits and a .327 average. The odd thing is that the Sox signed him for his defense and 25-homer potential. But Beltre has just three homers and seven errors. Despite his lack of power, Beltre is hitting lights out so far, which is something no one ever expected.
Kevin Youkilis is having an MVP-caliber season, batting .316 with three triples, 10 HR, 29 RBI, and a stunning .458 OBP, which is second highest in the Majors. He also leads the Majors in walks (28) and runs (40).
The question for the Red Sox is how they can improve by the trade deadline.
The Sox have a number of veterans with expiring contracts, such as David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Jason Varitek, and Victor Martinez. Aside from Martinez, none of them have a lot of trade value. Aside from that, their more productive, youthful players are guys they've built their team around (Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury), or are veterans on short-term deals (Beltre, Cameron, and Marco Scutaro).
Mike Lowell can still hit and may still have some trade value. Lowell had three doubles on May 3, becoming the first player since 1952 to accomplished that feat eight times in his career. He surpassed George Brett, who did it seven times. Lowell needs regular at-bats to maintain his rhythm, something he won't get in Boston.
A Rangers official told the Globe's Nick Cafardo last week he’d love to get Lowell in Texas. The Rangers are looking for a righthanded hitter who can produce.
Martinez's defensive deficiencies are the primary reason the Sox have held off on negotiating an extension with him. There are serious concerns about him at catcher going forward, and it's likely the Sox view him as a first baseman / DH in the future.
The Indians said Martinez wore down catching every day, and that it affected his hitting. Unfortunately, he got off to a very slow start this year. Given his defensive deficiencies, if he doesn't hit, he has little value behind the plate.
Depending on the team's record in July, Jonathan Papelbon's name will likely surface in trade discussions.
Boston's closer hasn't been as dominant as in the past, and has been trending downward in recent years.
This year, he's 1-3 with a 3.00 ERA, which is well below is career 1.92 ERA. Over 21 innings he's given up 14 hits, 11 walks, and hit one batsman, amounting to 25 baserunners. That's a WHIP of 1.25, which is decent. And he has fanned 16 batters, which is also decent. However, none of this amounts to the dominance he once showed.
It's hard to envision the Red Sox giving Papelbon the multi-year deal he is seeking before 2011, especially with Daniel Bard waiting in the wings.
Incredibly, Papelbon recently suffered his first regular season blown save since last July.
But because it was against the Yankees, and because of the way the team was playing, it was magnified.
Yet, it was the first walk-off home run given up by Papelbon in his five-year career, which is simply amazing.
Coming into that game, Papelbon had made 22 straight conversions. The only other time he allowed two homers in a game was to Minnesota's Justin Morneau and Jacque Jones in his major league debut on July 31, 2005,
With the exception of Game Three in last year's ALDS, he's been pretty solid and reliable.
To even consider trading him this season, the Red Sox would have to appear to be out of contention by the trade deadline, something that suddenly seems less likely.
The Red Sox are fourth in baseball in runs, second in homers, third in doubles, fourth in OPS, and sixth in OBP. And they've done all that without Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron for most of the season.
However, the team built on pitching and defense has been surprisingly deficient in both areas for much of the season.
The Red Sox starter's cumulative ERA of 4.54 is 21st in MLB and ninth in the AL. That's something no one could have predicted, especially with a front three of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and John Lackey.
And far too often, Red Sox fielders have looked like the Keystone Kops on defense. At times, their bumbling futility has been nothing short of jaw-dropping. But some of those dramatic and egregious misplays have overshadowed the fact that the Red Sox 27 errors are ranked ninth in the AL, and their .985 fielding percentage is fourth in the AL.
Recently the team's defense, pitching, and overall performance, have been trending upward.
The Red Sox have now won four straight, seven of eight, and 15 of 22. And they've succeeded against a succession of winning teams, such as the Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Twins, Phillies, and Rays.
But the Sox started the season terribly against the Rays and Yankees and, despite their recent hot streak, are still 6.5 games out of first as a result. Boston is now 26-21, the first time they've been five games above .500 this season.
There are 115 games yet to play, and if the Sox manage to win 60 percent of their remaining schedule, they'll wind up with 95 wins – exactly the number the club figures it needs to qualify for the playoffs each year.
While finishing in first in the AL East may be a lofty goal at this point, the Wild Card spot suddenly seems a lot more realistic.
The starting pitching finally seems to be coming around and looks like the staff that everyone had been expecting. With the exception of Lackey's last outing, six of their last seven start have been fantastic.
Sox starters are 6-1 with a 1.44 ERA in the last seven games.
There have been some surprises, such as Josh Beckett's 1-1 record and 7.29 ERA.
However, Clay Buchholz seems to have finally delivered on all that promise. Buchholz's 3.07 ERA leads all Sox starters, as do his six wins. And he has the most wins (12) of any AL starter since last August 19.
There are plenty of other reasons for optimism, as well.
Dustin Pedroia's home run and RBI totals are well ahead of his 2008 MVP season.
Adrian Beltre leads the Red Sox with 56 hits and a .327 average. The odd thing is that the Sox signed him for his defense and 25-homer potential. But Beltre has just three homers and seven errors. Despite his lack of power, Beltre is hitting lights out so far, which is something no one ever expected.
Kevin Youkilis is having an MVP-caliber season, batting .316 with three triples, 10 HR, 29 RBI, and a stunning .458 OBP, which is second highest in the Majors. He also leads the Majors in walks (28) and runs (40).
The question for the Red Sox is how they can improve by the trade deadline.
The Sox have a number of veterans with expiring contracts, such as David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Jason Varitek, and Victor Martinez. Aside from Martinez, none of them have a lot of trade value. Aside from that, their more productive, youthful players are guys they've built their team around (Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury), or are veterans on short-term deals (Beltre, Cameron, and Marco Scutaro).
Mike Lowell can still hit and may still have some trade value. Lowell had three doubles on May 3, becoming the first player since 1952 to accomplished that feat eight times in his career. He surpassed George Brett, who did it seven times. Lowell needs regular at-bats to maintain his rhythm, something he won't get in Boston.
A Rangers official told the Globe's Nick Cafardo last week he’d love to get Lowell in Texas. The Rangers are looking for a righthanded hitter who can produce.
Martinez's defensive deficiencies are the primary reason the Sox have held off on negotiating an extension with him. There are serious concerns about him at catcher going forward, and it's likely the Sox view him as a first baseman / DH in the future.
The Indians said Martinez wore down catching every day, and that it affected his hitting. Unfortunately, he got off to a very slow start this year. Given his defensive deficiencies, if he doesn't hit, he has little value behind the plate.
Depending on the team's record in July, Jonathan Papelbon's name will likely surface in trade discussions.
Boston's closer hasn't been as dominant as in the past, and has been trending downward in recent years.
This year, he's 1-3 with a 3.00 ERA, which is well below is career 1.92 ERA. Over 21 innings he's given up 14 hits, 11 walks, and hit one batsman, amounting to 25 baserunners. That's a WHIP of 1.25, which is decent. And he has fanned 16 batters, which is also decent. However, none of this amounts to the dominance he once showed.
It's hard to envision the Red Sox giving Papelbon the multi-year deal he is seeking before 2011, especially with Daniel Bard waiting in the wings.
Incredibly, Papelbon recently suffered his first regular season blown save since last July.
But because it was against the Yankees, and because of the way the team was playing, it was magnified.
Yet, it was the first walk-off home run given up by Papelbon in his five-year career, which is simply amazing.
Coming into that game, Papelbon had made 22 straight conversions. The only other time he allowed two homers in a game was to Minnesota's Justin Morneau and Jacque Jones in his major league debut on July 31, 2005,
With the exception of Game Three in last year's ALDS, he's been pretty solid and reliable.
To even consider trading him this season, the Red Sox would have to appear to be out of contention by the trade deadline, something that suddenly seems less likely.
Sunday, May 09, 2010
May, a Make or Break Month for Red Sox
The Red Sox are team still struggling to find their identity as they near the midpoint of May.
Having dropped two in a row to the Yankees, the Sox are now back below .500, at 15-16. They find themselves in fourth place in the AL East, and 7.5 games behind the division-leading Rays.
The Red hadn't strung together a winning streak of longer than two games this season, until they swept four in a row from the Angels this week. The offense suddenly awoke, outscoring the Angels 36-16.
But now they've lost two in a row to the Yankees, losing the series before today's game is even played. The Red Sox have proven themselves to be a team of streaks, and the winning variety haven't been long, or frequent, enough.
At this point, the Sox only solace is that the Yankees started 15-17 last season, then ended up with 103 wins and a World Series championship.
But things won't get any easier for the Sox during the rest of May. After this three-game series with the Yankees, the Blue Jays — who are ahead of the Sox in the standings — come to town. After that the Sox go to Detroit, and then to Yankee Stadium. After that, they’re home against the Twins for two games before heading out to Philadelphia and Tampa. All of those teams are over .500, and three are division leaders.
The Sox won't catch a break until May 27, when they return home to host the Royals.
At that point, we should all know if the Red Sox have any chance of competing in the AL East this season. Though they've been without two-thirds of their starting outfield for nearly a month, many would argue that it's already too late for a meaningful recovery anyway.
The Red Sox are essentially relying on the Rays and/or Yankees to collapse – perhaps due to key injuries – to get back into the playoff hunt. But a team wants to chart its own course, be responsible for its own fate, and not rely on another team's demise to provide hope or opportunity. Yet, that's the reality the Sox are facing at this point. They are 1-8 against the Rays and Yanks this year, all at Fenway.
When they leave town Wednesday night, the Sox will have played 23 of their first 35 games at Fenway, where they have traditionally shined. However, they are 9-10 at home this season.
The Red Sox offense has been better than predicted; the Sox are third in the league in batting average, homers, and runs.
However, the pitching and defense – the very things this team was purported to have been built on – have been disappointing, to say the least.
The Sox’ staff ERA is 5.11, putting them near the bottom of the American League. And it's not the bullpen's fault; the starter's ERA is 5.21. This was supposed to be the best starting three, maybe four, in baseball. Not so much.
Adrian Beltre, who was alleged to be the best defensive third baseman in the AL, now has seven errors, and it's only the second week of May. Believe it or not, Beltre has more errors than any other player in baseball. Indeed, Beltre's .327 average has been a welcome surprise, but the Red Sox brought him to Boston for his defense.
Defense begins up the middle, and unfortunately Victor Martinez can't play defense. He is simply a liability behind the plate. Bill Hall doesn't belong in the outfield, and Jeremy Hermida is not a defensive standout either.
May will be a definitive month for the Red Sox. By the end of the month, we will all know whether this is a playoff caliber team, or not. Management may already know, regardless of their optimistic pronouncements.
Theo Epstein and Co. may have to make uncomfortable decisions about players such as David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and even Martinez by the end of this month, or next. Lowell and Ortiz can't run or effectively play defense, and at $12 million apiece, neither has any trade value.
Martinez will be a free agent at season's end and doesn't appear to be the team's catcher of the future. So, unless the club sees him as a DH or first baseman going forward, they may choose to trade him by the deadline.
The Sox are not in a position to do a salary dump. No club will pick up any meaningful amount of Ortiz's or Lowell's remaining salaries, and JD Drew is also untradable. Even if the Sox believe the season is lost and want to groom Josh Reddick for a spot in the outfield, facing big league pitching, they can't make room for him by moving the $14 million-a-year Drew, who is signed through next season.
The Red Sox may not be able to fix this team by the deadline, and considering that their payroll is already in excess of $170 million, owner John Henry may be unwilling to invest further in a team of overpriced underachievers.
Considering the talent of their chief rivals in the AL East, May is a make or break month for the Red Sox. In just a few short weeks we should know if this team will buyers, or sellers, in July.
The Red Sox are team still struggling to find their identity as they near the midpoint of May.
Having dropped two in a row to the Yankees, the Sox are now back below .500, at 15-16. They find themselves in fourth place in the AL East, and 7.5 games behind the division-leading Rays.
The Red hadn't strung together a winning streak of longer than two games this season, until they swept four in a row from the Angels this week. The offense suddenly awoke, outscoring the Angels 36-16.
But now they've lost two in a row to the Yankees, losing the series before today's game is even played. The Red Sox have proven themselves to be a team of streaks, and the winning variety haven't been long, or frequent, enough.
At this point, the Sox only solace is that the Yankees started 15-17 last season, then ended up with 103 wins and a World Series championship.
But things won't get any easier for the Sox during the rest of May. After this three-game series with the Yankees, the Blue Jays — who are ahead of the Sox in the standings — come to town. After that the Sox go to Detroit, and then to Yankee Stadium. After that, they’re home against the Twins for two games before heading out to Philadelphia and Tampa. All of those teams are over .500, and three are division leaders.
The Sox won't catch a break until May 27, when they return home to host the Royals.
At that point, we should all know if the Red Sox have any chance of competing in the AL East this season. Though they've been without two-thirds of their starting outfield for nearly a month, many would argue that it's already too late for a meaningful recovery anyway.
The Red Sox are essentially relying on the Rays and/or Yankees to collapse – perhaps due to key injuries – to get back into the playoff hunt. But a team wants to chart its own course, be responsible for its own fate, and not rely on another team's demise to provide hope or opportunity. Yet, that's the reality the Sox are facing at this point. They are 1-8 against the Rays and Yanks this year, all at Fenway.
When they leave town Wednesday night, the Sox will have played 23 of their first 35 games at Fenway, where they have traditionally shined. However, they are 9-10 at home this season.
The Red Sox offense has been better than predicted; the Sox are third in the league in batting average, homers, and runs.
However, the pitching and defense – the very things this team was purported to have been built on – have been disappointing, to say the least.
The Sox’ staff ERA is 5.11, putting them near the bottom of the American League. And it's not the bullpen's fault; the starter's ERA is 5.21. This was supposed to be the best starting three, maybe four, in baseball. Not so much.
Adrian Beltre, who was alleged to be the best defensive third baseman in the AL, now has seven errors, and it's only the second week of May. Believe it or not, Beltre has more errors than any other player in baseball. Indeed, Beltre's .327 average has been a welcome surprise, but the Red Sox brought him to Boston for his defense.
Defense begins up the middle, and unfortunately Victor Martinez can't play defense. He is simply a liability behind the plate. Bill Hall doesn't belong in the outfield, and Jeremy Hermida is not a defensive standout either.
May will be a definitive month for the Red Sox. By the end of the month, we will all know whether this is a playoff caliber team, or not. Management may already know, regardless of their optimistic pronouncements.
Theo Epstein and Co. may have to make uncomfortable decisions about players such as David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and even Martinez by the end of this month, or next. Lowell and Ortiz can't run or effectively play defense, and at $12 million apiece, neither has any trade value.
Martinez will be a free agent at season's end and doesn't appear to be the team's catcher of the future. So, unless the club sees him as a DH or first baseman going forward, they may choose to trade him by the deadline.
The Sox are not in a position to do a salary dump. No club will pick up any meaningful amount of Ortiz's or Lowell's remaining salaries, and JD Drew is also untradable. Even if the Sox believe the season is lost and want to groom Josh Reddick for a spot in the outfield, facing big league pitching, they can't make room for him by moving the $14 million-a-year Drew, who is signed through next season.
The Red Sox may not be able to fix this team by the deadline, and considering that their payroll is already in excess of $170 million, owner John Henry may be unwilling to invest further in a team of overpriced underachievers.
Considering the talent of their chief rivals in the AL East, May is a make or break month for the Red Sox. In just a few short weeks we should know if this team will buyers, or sellers, in July.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Red Sox Experiencing Power Outage
Twenty-two games into this season, the Red Sox have finally drawn even at 11-11, putting them alone in third place.
The Sox have won five of their last six games and seven out of nine. With the exception of Wednesday's 2-0 victory, every one of them was won by one run. That hasn't happened since 1943. Over those eight games, the Sox have scored 47 runs and their opponents 45.
That's just squeaking by.
The Red Sox are eighth out of the 14 AL teams in runs this season, and seventh in batting average, putting them solidly in the middle of the pack.
That's clearly not the sign of a playoff team.
Dustin Pedroia continues to lead the team in home runs with five, yet he hasn't hit one out of the park since April 17. That's how impotent Red Sox' bats have been so far this season.
David Ortiz, JD Drew, Victor Martinez and Bill Hall are doing nothing but making outs. Yet, thirty-one-year-old minor league outfielder Darnell McDonald is suddenly one of the team's offensive stars.
McDonald has driven in six runs since he arrived, more than Martinez and Ortiz. He is 8 for 24 with five runs scored, four extra-base hits, three walks and six RBI in the nine games since arriving in Boston.
While McDonald is a great story, he's not the solution to the Red Sox offensive woes. The Sox' primary bats need to wake up soon, or they'll need to get help elsewhere.
That's why the promotion of Lars Anderson to Pawtucket is so interesting.
Anderson was hitting .355, with five homers, five doubles, 15 RBI, and a 1.086 OPS through 17 games, when he was advanced.
His promotion is an intriguing development because it came so early in the season. Are the Sox hoping that he responds positively and can contribute to the big league team before the season is over?
Anderson is only 22, and he struggled mightily last year in Portland. Yet, you can't help but think this is a reaction to the struggles of Ortiz and the lack of a true masher in the Sox lineup.
After having built the team around its pitching staff, and with Clay Buchholz being their most consistent and effective starter so far this year, the Sox surely don't want to trade him for a power hitter right now. Yet, they're going to need an upgrade at some point if the offense doesn't come alive.
However, a trade for a premier hitter would be very costly in terms of prospects, potentially upsetting the balance of everything Theo Epstein has been working toward the last few seasons; inexpensive, club-controlled, homegrown talent.
As it stands, the team payroll is approaching $175 million.
It's hard to figure that the young Anderson can be the solution to the Sox' offensive needs, but it sure would be one hell of a story if he continues to tattoo the ball and earns his way onto the big league club this season.
The Red Sox could use some firepower from wherever they can get it. Look no further than Darnell McDonald.
The Sox have won five of their last six games and seven out of nine. With the exception of Wednesday's 2-0 victory, every one of them was won by one run. That hasn't happened since 1943. Over those eight games, the Sox have scored 47 runs and their opponents 45.
That's just squeaking by.
The Red Sox are eighth out of the 14 AL teams in runs this season, and seventh in batting average, putting them solidly in the middle of the pack.
That's clearly not the sign of a playoff team.
Dustin Pedroia continues to lead the team in home runs with five, yet he hasn't hit one out of the park since April 17. That's how impotent Red Sox' bats have been so far this season.
David Ortiz, JD Drew, Victor Martinez and Bill Hall are doing nothing but making outs. Yet, thirty-one-year-old minor league outfielder Darnell McDonald is suddenly one of the team's offensive stars.
McDonald has driven in six runs since he arrived, more than Martinez and Ortiz. He is 8 for 24 with five runs scored, four extra-base hits, three walks and six RBI in the nine games since arriving in Boston.
While McDonald is a great story, he's not the solution to the Red Sox offensive woes. The Sox' primary bats need to wake up soon, or they'll need to get help elsewhere.
That's why the promotion of Lars Anderson to Pawtucket is so interesting.
Anderson was hitting .355, with five homers, five doubles, 15 RBI, and a 1.086 OPS through 17 games, when he was advanced.
His promotion is an intriguing development because it came so early in the season. Are the Sox hoping that he responds positively and can contribute to the big league team before the season is over?
Anderson is only 22, and he struggled mightily last year in Portland. Yet, you can't help but think this is a reaction to the struggles of Ortiz and the lack of a true masher in the Sox lineup.
After having built the team around its pitching staff, and with Clay Buchholz being their most consistent and effective starter so far this year, the Sox surely don't want to trade him for a power hitter right now. Yet, they're going to need an upgrade at some point if the offense doesn't come alive.
However, a trade for a premier hitter would be very costly in terms of prospects, potentially upsetting the balance of everything Theo Epstein has been working toward the last few seasons; inexpensive, club-controlled, homegrown talent.
As it stands, the team payroll is approaching $175 million.
It's hard to figure that the young Anderson can be the solution to the Sox' offensive needs, but it sure would be one hell of a story if he continues to tattoo the ball and earns his way onto the big league club this season.
The Red Sox could use some firepower from wherever they can get it. Look no further than Darnell McDonald.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Red Sox Facing Bad Breaks, Playing Bad Baseball
Coming into this season, there were many concerns — even some predictions — that the Red Sox wouldn't have the offense to prevail in the AL East, much less win the Pennant.
So far, those concerns appear valid. In the first 17 games of this season, the Sox have scored two or fewer runs seven times, including two shut outs.
David Ortiz's struggles have continued, which hasn't come as a surprise to many. What is surprising is that the heart of the Sox order has also struggled so far. No one could have predicted that so many of the Sox premier hitters would look positively anemic in April.
Consider the following:
Victor Martinez: 262, 1 HR, 5 RBI
Kevin Youkilis: .234, 2 HR, 7 RBI
JD Drew: .158, 2 HR, 7 RBI
Diminutive second baseman Dustin Pedroia leads the club with five homers, more than twice as many as anyone else.
The 2010 Red Sox were supposedly built on a foundation of pitching and defense, but so far you'd never know it.
The Red Sox have the second hIghest starter's ERA in the AL (5.31), behind only the White Sox (5.67). The Tigers (5.30) and the Royals (4.87) trail the Red Sox. Given the Red Sox talented young staff, that was definitely not supposed to be the case.
And the Red Sox came into tonight's game with the ninth ranked defense in the AL, having made 12 errors in 17 games. Errors aside, the Red Sox defense has not looked sharp. Sox fielders have often looked tentative and awkward.
The Sox have allowed the most stolen bases in the AL – by a long shot. Boston has allowed 37 steals, more than twice as many as the next closest team, the Tigers, with 17. The Yankees and Indians (15 apiece) are tied for third. What's stunning is that Red Sox catchers have caught only two of the 39 runners attempting to steal this season.
So much for pitching and defense.
With all of this in mind, it's easy to see why the Red Sox came into tonight's game at 7-10, five games out of first place. After spending $170 million on payroll (so far) this season, this is not what the Red Sox thought they were buying.
However, there is at least one encouraging sign as of late; the Sox have won their last three one-run games.
Without question, the best Sox top hitters will eventually come around; it's just a matter of time. Though it's questionable whether Ortiz will ever regain his prior form (Andruw Jones should give us hope), better things can reasonably be expected from Pedroia, Youkilis, Martinez, and Drew.
Further, the Red Sox have been significantly bitten by the injury bug. Tonight's starting outfield is comprised by Bill Hall, Jeremy Hermida, and Darnell McDonald.
Mike Cameron is on the DL with an abdominal injury known as a sports hernia. It's too soon to tell, but the injury could eventually require surgery. Though the natural suspicion is that the injury is age related (Cameron is 37), younger players such as Cliff Lee, Josh Hamilton, and Michael Young have also dealt with the same injury.
The Red Sox haven't yet gotten to witness all that Cameron can offer offensively or defensively, since he's only played in 11 games and had 30 at-bats.
But perhaps the biggest blow to the Red Sox is the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury due to cracked ribs. The injury was the result of a collision with Bill Hall, who was playing short, and should have never happened. If the two players had played together longer and communicated better, they would have avoided each other. Neither player had a sense of the other's tendencies, and the collision appeared completely avoidable.
As a result, the Red Sox have been without their leadoff hitter, which has led to a reshuffling of the lineup and poor results. Ellsbury was batting .333 when he went on the DL.
With any luck, both Ellsbury and Cameron will return soon, and the Red Sox will be able to field the team they envisioned and assembled earlier this spring.
Until then, they have to hope they don't dig themselves a hole so deep they can't get out of it. So far this season, the Sox haven't been able to put together a winning streak longer than two games.
If that doesn't change in a hurry, the Sox may find themselves looking up at the Yankees and Rays in the standings all season long.
So far, those concerns appear valid. In the first 17 games of this season, the Sox have scored two or fewer runs seven times, including two shut outs.
David Ortiz's struggles have continued, which hasn't come as a surprise to many. What is surprising is that the heart of the Sox order has also struggled so far. No one could have predicted that so many of the Sox premier hitters would look positively anemic in April.
Consider the following:
Victor Martinez: 262, 1 HR, 5 RBI
Kevin Youkilis: .234, 2 HR, 7 RBI
JD Drew: .158, 2 HR, 7 RBI
Diminutive second baseman Dustin Pedroia leads the club with five homers, more than twice as many as anyone else.
The 2010 Red Sox were supposedly built on a foundation of pitching and defense, but so far you'd never know it.
The Red Sox have the second hIghest starter's ERA in the AL (5.31), behind only the White Sox (5.67). The Tigers (5.30) and the Royals (4.87) trail the Red Sox. Given the Red Sox talented young staff, that was definitely not supposed to be the case.
And the Red Sox came into tonight's game with the ninth ranked defense in the AL, having made 12 errors in 17 games. Errors aside, the Red Sox defense has not looked sharp. Sox fielders have often looked tentative and awkward.
The Sox have allowed the most stolen bases in the AL – by a long shot. Boston has allowed 37 steals, more than twice as many as the next closest team, the Tigers, with 17. The Yankees and Indians (15 apiece) are tied for third. What's stunning is that Red Sox catchers have caught only two of the 39 runners attempting to steal this season.
So much for pitching and defense.
With all of this in mind, it's easy to see why the Red Sox came into tonight's game at 7-10, five games out of first place. After spending $170 million on payroll (so far) this season, this is not what the Red Sox thought they were buying.
However, there is at least one encouraging sign as of late; the Sox have won their last three one-run games.
Without question, the best Sox top hitters will eventually come around; it's just a matter of time. Though it's questionable whether Ortiz will ever regain his prior form (Andruw Jones should give us hope), better things can reasonably be expected from Pedroia, Youkilis, Martinez, and Drew.
Further, the Red Sox have been significantly bitten by the injury bug. Tonight's starting outfield is comprised by Bill Hall, Jeremy Hermida, and Darnell McDonald.
Mike Cameron is on the DL with an abdominal injury known as a sports hernia. It's too soon to tell, but the injury could eventually require surgery. Though the natural suspicion is that the injury is age related (Cameron is 37), younger players such as Cliff Lee, Josh Hamilton, and Michael Young have also dealt with the same injury.
The Red Sox haven't yet gotten to witness all that Cameron can offer offensively or defensively, since he's only played in 11 games and had 30 at-bats.
But perhaps the biggest blow to the Red Sox is the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury due to cracked ribs. The injury was the result of a collision with Bill Hall, who was playing short, and should have never happened. If the two players had played together longer and communicated better, they would have avoided each other. Neither player had a sense of the other's tendencies, and the collision appeared completely avoidable.
As a result, the Red Sox have been without their leadoff hitter, which has led to a reshuffling of the lineup and poor results. Ellsbury was batting .333 when he went on the DL.
With any luck, both Ellsbury and Cameron will return soon, and the Red Sox will be able to field the team they envisioned and assembled earlier this spring.
Until then, they have to hope they don't dig themselves a hole so deep they can't get out of it. So far this season, the Sox haven't been able to put together a winning streak longer than two games.
If that doesn't change in a hurry, the Sox may find themselves looking up at the Yankees and Rays in the standings all season long.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Red Sox Offense Living Up To Pre-Season Doubts
The Red Sox were booed as they left the field today. They've suffered five straight losses, including a sweep by the Rays, and now they're six games out of first.
The Sox are now 4-9 this season. You have to go back to 1996 to find a Red Sox team that got off to worse start after 13 games than the current edition.
Of specific concern, the Sox are 1-6 against the Yankees and Rays this season, with all games played at Fenway. The Boston locals are currently facing their worst home start since the 1932 team started 1-9 at home.
Boston has scored just 17 runs over their last 65 innings. They left five runners in scoring position today, are 0-for-30 in that department over the last five games, and 12-for-91 (.103) over the last 12 games.
Over the last five games, the team has struck out 35 times, while walking 19 times. Collectively, the Sox are hitting .249, have an OBP of .313, and are averaging 3.8 runs a game.
This afternoon, David Ortiz went 0-3, and is now batting .158. JD Drew has just two hits, to go along with 12 strike outs, in his last 23 at-bats and is now batting .146. Kevin Youkilis went 0-4 and is now bating .217. Victor Martinez has grounded into six double plays and is now batting 212.
This, folks, was supposed to be the heart of the Red Sox order.
Bill Hall and his .091 average will not come off the bench and save this offense. And after a rocket-like start, Jeremy Hermida has rapidly fallen back to earth, bringing his .219 batting average with him.
And I haven't even mentioned the horrible defensive lapses of a team supposedly built on a foundation of defense. But that's another story, for another day. There's too much to focus on regarding the offense alone, at present.
The conventional wisdom coming into this season was that the Red Sox lacked the offensive fire power to win the AL East, much less the World Series. Just 13 games into the season, the Red Sox have done little to dispute that. Their 5'7" second baseman, Dustin Pedroia, leads the club with five long balls and 13 RBI.
That's a very bad sign.
Many fans and analysts doubted the Red Sox power potential from the outset, and, in fact, the offense in general. Consequently, they also believe that the Sox will eventually have to upgrade the offense via trade. San Diego first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has been the most discussed target, and perhaps the most desired, by Red Sox fans and local media.
However, watching Tampa first baseman Carlos Pena this weekend was a sad reminder of what the Red Sox once had, and what could have been.
The Sox had Pena on the roster for 18 games in 2006, after he was released by Detroit. In that span, Pena batted .273. Yet, the Sox didn't think they had a place for him with Kevin Youkilis at first, Mike Lowell at third, and David Ortiz at DH.
So Pena left as a free agent.
Imagine if the Sox had held on to the local boy when they had him four years ago, at the age of 28. They would've had a young, power-hitting first baseman/DH, with Youkilis seamlessly shifting back to third. Then, perhaps, we wouldn't be talking about the need for offense, or a big trade potentially involving Adrian Gonzalez, or any other slugger for that matter.
Under that scenario, Boston would already have a young 40-home run hitter on its roster without having to trade for one this summer.
Letting Pena walk ended up being a big mistake for the Sox; Pena hit 46, 31, and 39 homers in successive seasons for Tampa, as well as driving in at least 100 runs each year. He finished second in the AL in homers and slugging in 2007, the year after the Sox had him. What's more, Pena won a Gold Glove in 2008.
Yes, Pena is just a career .248 hitter with a .356 OBP, but he sure would help the Red Sox a lot right now, as well as over the past two years.
At this point, it seems a foregone conclusion that the Red Sox will seek some offensive help before the season gets away from them. But acquiring any big-name slugger will be costly in terms of prospects. That's what makes giving up on Pena so quickly so lamentable right now.
Indeed, it's quite early in the 2010 season, and there are still a whopping 149 games to go. The Yankees started slowly last year, were five games out as of June 23, and had lost all eight games against the Red Sox at that point.
Things worked out well for the Yanks in the end. But right now, the way the Sox offense looks, it's tough to imagine the same happy ending for them.
The Sox are now 4-9 this season. You have to go back to 1996 to find a Red Sox team that got off to worse start after 13 games than the current edition.
Of specific concern, the Sox are 1-6 against the Yankees and Rays this season, with all games played at Fenway. The Boston locals are currently facing their worst home start since the 1932 team started 1-9 at home.
Boston has scored just 17 runs over their last 65 innings. They left five runners in scoring position today, are 0-for-30 in that department over the last five games, and 12-for-91 (.103) over the last 12 games.
Over the last five games, the team has struck out 35 times, while walking 19 times. Collectively, the Sox are hitting .249, have an OBP of .313, and are averaging 3.8 runs a game.
This afternoon, David Ortiz went 0-3, and is now batting .158. JD Drew has just two hits, to go along with 12 strike outs, in his last 23 at-bats and is now batting .146. Kevin Youkilis went 0-4 and is now bating .217. Victor Martinez has grounded into six double plays and is now batting 212.
This, folks, was supposed to be the heart of the Red Sox order.
Bill Hall and his .091 average will not come off the bench and save this offense. And after a rocket-like start, Jeremy Hermida has rapidly fallen back to earth, bringing his .219 batting average with him.
And I haven't even mentioned the horrible defensive lapses of a team supposedly built on a foundation of defense. But that's another story, for another day. There's too much to focus on regarding the offense alone, at present.
The conventional wisdom coming into this season was that the Red Sox lacked the offensive fire power to win the AL East, much less the World Series. Just 13 games into the season, the Red Sox have done little to dispute that. Their 5'7" second baseman, Dustin Pedroia, leads the club with five long balls and 13 RBI.
That's a very bad sign.
Many fans and analysts doubted the Red Sox power potential from the outset, and, in fact, the offense in general. Consequently, they also believe that the Sox will eventually have to upgrade the offense via trade. San Diego first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has been the most discussed target, and perhaps the most desired, by Red Sox fans and local media.
However, watching Tampa first baseman Carlos Pena this weekend was a sad reminder of what the Red Sox once had, and what could have been.
The Sox had Pena on the roster for 18 games in 2006, after he was released by Detroit. In that span, Pena batted .273. Yet, the Sox didn't think they had a place for him with Kevin Youkilis at first, Mike Lowell at third, and David Ortiz at DH.
So Pena left as a free agent.
Imagine if the Sox had held on to the local boy when they had him four years ago, at the age of 28. They would've had a young, power-hitting first baseman/DH, with Youkilis seamlessly shifting back to third. Then, perhaps, we wouldn't be talking about the need for offense, or a big trade potentially involving Adrian Gonzalez, or any other slugger for that matter.
Under that scenario, Boston would already have a young 40-home run hitter on its roster without having to trade for one this summer.
Letting Pena walk ended up being a big mistake for the Sox; Pena hit 46, 31, and 39 homers in successive seasons for Tampa, as well as driving in at least 100 runs each year. He finished second in the AL in homers and slugging in 2007, the year after the Sox had him. What's more, Pena won a Gold Glove in 2008.
Yes, Pena is just a career .248 hitter with a .356 OBP, but he sure would help the Red Sox a lot right now, as well as over the past two years.
At this point, it seems a foregone conclusion that the Red Sox will seek some offensive help before the season gets away from them. But acquiring any big-name slugger will be costly in terms of prospects. That's what makes giving up on Pena so quickly so lamentable right now.
Indeed, it's quite early in the 2010 season, and there are still a whopping 149 games to go. The Yankees started slowly last year, were five games out as of June 23, and had lost all eight games against the Red Sox at that point.
Things worked out well for the Yanks in the end. But right now, the way the Sox offense looks, it's tough to imagine the same happy ending for them.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
How Long can The Red Sox Wait on Ortiz With Hermida And Lowell In The Wings?
Red Sox manager Terry Francona currently faces two questions that are in essence one and the same; how much longer can he, in good conscience, continue to write David Ortiz's name into the lineup each day, and how much longer can he not write Jeremy Hermida's name into that lineup?
Ortiz has 13 whiffs in 26 at-bats. He has three walks and just four hits (Dustin Pedrioa had four in one game this week), one of which was a ball that bounced in and out of a Twins outfielder's glove. Another hit, an opposite-field double down the third-base line on Friday, was far more of an accident than an accomplishment given that the ball hit the top if his bat.
As of today, Ortiz is sporting a paltry .154 batting average.
Meanwhile, Herrnida notched a hit in his first game with the Sox last week. He had replaced Ortiz, who'd been ejected after arguing a called third strike. Hermida then hit a homer in his first start, which came the very next day. In all, Hermida has five hits in 17 at-bats, resulting in a .294 average. Naturally, this is a very small sample size, but four of the five hits were for extra bases and resulted in six RBI.
Hermida is just 26, and entering the prime of his career. He was the 11th player picked in the 2002 draft. He has a lot of upside and he needs at-bats. Yet, he was brought to the Red Sox to be a fourth outfielder, after being a starter in Florida.
Ortiz, on the other hand, has been in decline for two years. Though he hit 27 homers after June 6 last season, Ortiz had an abysmal first two months of the season, and finished the year batting .238. He followed that by batting .083 in the ALDS, and then proceeded to have a miserable spring training, at one point going 1-for-19.
Francona and hitting coach Dave Magadan said he was just working on his timing, and that it should be taken too seriously.
But his troubles have continued.
And then there''s Mike Lowell, who is unhappily sitting on the bench waiting his turn. In Saturday's game, he surprised many with a nifty diving backhanded stab that snared a ball seemingly destined for left field. Though he may still be a capable defender, with Adrain Beltre in front of him, time at third will be sparing.
But Lowell can still hit, and if Ortiz cannot, at-bats can be had in the role of DH. Lowell only has eight at-bats so far this season, resulting in two hits. But that's just two fewer than Ortiz in less than a third of the at-bats.
The point is, with the young and promising Hermida making a strong case for himself very quickly, and with the versatile veteran Lowell not so patiently awaiting his turn, Ortiz's days may be numbered unless he turns things around quickly.
There's no doubting that Ortiz cares; he was the first Red Sox player to arrive to the ballpark yesterday and took extra hitting,
A couple of years ago, Ortiz was one of the most feared hitters in baseball. Now, it's becoming obvious that teams are taking the bat out of Kevin Youkilis' hands by pitching around him. They no longer respect Ortiz and know he can't beat them.
It's all become so sad for Ortiz, so quickly. It's hard to watch because of all he meant to the team for so long. He was the face of the franchise, a huge man with swagger and a smiling face. Now that swagger is gone, replaced by slow, uncomfortable walks back to the dugout after each strikeout or pop out.
If Ortiz doesn't have one last resurgence very soon, a great Red Sox career will have prematurely ended. The Red Sox can't have him lingering and sulking on the bench.
The sad truth is, if Ortiz can't hit, he's useless to the Red Sox. In addition, Hermida and Lowell are waiting anxiously.
Ortiz has 13 whiffs in 26 at-bats. He has three walks and just four hits (Dustin Pedrioa had four in one game this week), one of which was a ball that bounced in and out of a Twins outfielder's glove. Another hit, an opposite-field double down the third-base line on Friday, was far more of an accident than an accomplishment given that the ball hit the top if his bat.
As of today, Ortiz is sporting a paltry .154 batting average.
Meanwhile, Herrnida notched a hit in his first game with the Sox last week. He had replaced Ortiz, who'd been ejected after arguing a called third strike. Hermida then hit a homer in his first start, which came the very next day. In all, Hermida has five hits in 17 at-bats, resulting in a .294 average. Naturally, this is a very small sample size, but four of the five hits were for extra bases and resulted in six RBI.
Hermida is just 26, and entering the prime of his career. He was the 11th player picked in the 2002 draft. He has a lot of upside and he needs at-bats. Yet, he was brought to the Red Sox to be a fourth outfielder, after being a starter in Florida.
Ortiz, on the other hand, has been in decline for two years. Though he hit 27 homers after June 6 last season, Ortiz had an abysmal first two months of the season, and finished the year batting .238. He followed that by batting .083 in the ALDS, and then proceeded to have a miserable spring training, at one point going 1-for-19.
Francona and hitting coach Dave Magadan said he was just working on his timing, and that it should be taken too seriously.
But his troubles have continued.
And then there''s Mike Lowell, who is unhappily sitting on the bench waiting his turn. In Saturday's game, he surprised many with a nifty diving backhanded stab that snared a ball seemingly destined for left field. Though he may still be a capable defender, with Adrain Beltre in front of him, time at third will be sparing.
But Lowell can still hit, and if Ortiz cannot, at-bats can be had in the role of DH. Lowell only has eight at-bats so far this season, resulting in two hits. But that's just two fewer than Ortiz in less than a third of the at-bats.
The point is, with the young and promising Hermida making a strong case for himself very quickly, and with the versatile veteran Lowell not so patiently awaiting his turn, Ortiz's days may be numbered unless he turns things around quickly.
There's no doubting that Ortiz cares; he was the first Red Sox player to arrive to the ballpark yesterday and took extra hitting,
A couple of years ago, Ortiz was one of the most feared hitters in baseball. Now, it's becoming obvious that teams are taking the bat out of Kevin Youkilis' hands by pitching around him. They no longer respect Ortiz and know he can't beat them.
It's all become so sad for Ortiz, so quickly. It's hard to watch because of all he meant to the team for so long. He was the face of the franchise, a huge man with swagger and a smiling face. Now that swagger is gone, replaced by slow, uncomfortable walks back to the dugout after each strikeout or pop out.
If Ortiz doesn't have one last resurgence very soon, a great Red Sox career will have prematurely ended. The Red Sox can't have him lingering and sulking on the bench.
The sad truth is, if Ortiz can't hit, he's useless to the Red Sox. In addition, Hermida and Lowell are waiting anxiously.
Wednesday, April 07, 2010
A Stressed-Out David Ortiz Melts Down On Reporters
David Ortiz went on a profanity-laced tirade against reporters who questioned his 0-for-7 start this season. Ortiz is the only Red Sox regular without a hit after two games.
But that's just it; only two games have been played and perhaps it's premature to question Ortiz after just seven at-bats.
After everything he gave the Red Sox and their fans over his first five years in Boston, Ortiz feels that he's earned the benefit of the doubt.
However, while Ortiz can expect goodwill for his past exploits, it won't buy him acceptance for his current failures. Sports are a "what have you done for me lately?" business. No one would give the love to Jim Rice, Dwight Evans, or Mo Vaughn if they suited up tonight and took a spot in the lineup–unless they produced.
All of Ortiz's problems over the past two seasons are evident once again after just two games. The left-handed hitter is still pull happy, and a simple infield shift thwarts him. If he simply went the other way and hit the ball to left or center, his problems might be solved.
However, for long stretches last season, in the ALDS, and in spring training this year, Ortiz couldn't catch up to the fastball. And he's consistently fooled by the change-up as well, so his timing is off, leading him to pop up and foul off l too frequently.
Clearly, Ortiz is feeling the pressure, something he seemed immune to for many years.
You can't help but feel bad for him. For some guys, it all just slips away so quickly. I truly hope he recovers and he may, to some degree. But my bet is that Ortiz will never again be the hitter he once was, and he can't stand living in his own shadow. He raised the bar so high that he can't get over it any more.
Sure, writing him off at this point seems premature. After all, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester had rough outings this week as well, and no one is talking about jettisoning them.
But had Beckett or Lester been on a two-year downward trend, the media and fans would be a lot more concerned today due to their poor performances. However, based on their recent histories, we're all confident that those games were just aberrations.
And Jacoby Ellsbury was 0-for-5 on Opening Night. Yet, there were no worries due to his progression over the past couple of years.
Though Ortiz was solid after June 1 last year, he still slumped again in July, and batted .083 (1-for-12) with no walks and four K's in the ALDS. Including spring training, his two-year trend reveals a regression.
We're all pulling for the guy. The team really needs him to perform to achieve success, and avoid a desperate trade early in the season. The concern is that the last two years are not just an aberration. We can't forget that Ortiz batted .238 last season.
Unquestionably, Ortiz still has power; he just has to hit the ball cleanly for it to leave the park. The Red Sox would be better served if Ortiz hits .280 this season with just 25 homers, than if he hits .240 and somehow manages to smack 35 homers. The former would likely result in more runs than the latter.
Unfortunately, neither seems very likely.
After what we've seen the past two years, we can remain hopeful, if not optimistic.
But that's just it; only two games have been played and perhaps it's premature to question Ortiz after just seven at-bats.
After everything he gave the Red Sox and their fans over his first five years in Boston, Ortiz feels that he's earned the benefit of the doubt.
However, while Ortiz can expect goodwill for his past exploits, it won't buy him acceptance for his current failures. Sports are a "what have you done for me lately?" business. No one would give the love to Jim Rice, Dwight Evans, or Mo Vaughn if they suited up tonight and took a spot in the lineup–unless they produced.
All of Ortiz's problems over the past two seasons are evident once again after just two games. The left-handed hitter is still pull happy, and a simple infield shift thwarts him. If he simply went the other way and hit the ball to left or center, his problems might be solved.
However, for long stretches last season, in the ALDS, and in spring training this year, Ortiz couldn't catch up to the fastball. And he's consistently fooled by the change-up as well, so his timing is off, leading him to pop up and foul off l too frequently.
Clearly, Ortiz is feeling the pressure, something he seemed immune to for many years.
You can't help but feel bad for him. For some guys, it all just slips away so quickly. I truly hope he recovers and he may, to some degree. But my bet is that Ortiz will never again be the hitter he once was, and he can't stand living in his own shadow. He raised the bar so high that he can't get over it any more.
Sure, writing him off at this point seems premature. After all, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester had rough outings this week as well, and no one is talking about jettisoning them.
But had Beckett or Lester been on a two-year downward trend, the media and fans would be a lot more concerned today due to their poor performances. However, based on their recent histories, we're all confident that those games were just aberrations.
And Jacoby Ellsbury was 0-for-5 on Opening Night. Yet, there were no worries due to his progression over the past couple of years.
Though Ortiz was solid after June 1 last year, he still slumped again in July, and batted .083 (1-for-12) with no walks and four K's in the ALDS. Including spring training, his two-year trend reveals a regression.
We're all pulling for the guy. The team really needs him to perform to achieve success, and avoid a desperate trade early in the season. The concern is that the last two years are not just an aberration. We can't forget that Ortiz batted .238 last season.
Unquestionably, Ortiz still has power; he just has to hit the ball cleanly for it to leave the park. The Red Sox would be better served if Ortiz hits .280 this season with just 25 homers, than if he hits .240 and somehow manages to smack 35 homers. The former would likely result in more runs than the latter.
Unfortunately, neither seems very likely.
After what we've seen the past two years, we can remain hopeful, if not optimistic.
Monday, April 05, 2010
A Good Start and Some Good Signs for Red Sox
Though the first game was a bit of a mixed bag, all's well that ends well.
Red Sox resident ace Josh Beckett looked rather ordinary on the mound, throwing 94 pitches in just 4.2 innings. In that span, Beckett surrendered eight hits, three walks, two home runs, and five runs in all. What's more, he had just one strike out, his fewest in nearly two years (June, 2007).
The good news was that the Red Sox came back from deficits of 5-1 and 7-5, scoring the winning run on a passed ball in the seventh.
And the Sox bullpen out dueled the Yankee pen, an optimistic sign for Sox fans everywhere.
Red Sox' bullpen: 4.1 innings, 4 hits, 2 earned runs, 3 walks, 1 strikeout
Yankees' bullpen: 2.2 innings, 6 hits, 3 earned runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout
It was also encouraging to see the new guys get off to strong starts.
Adrian Beltre went 1 for 3 with two RBIs. Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro were both 2 for 3. The trio accounted for five hits, two runs scored, two walks, three RBI – and no errors.
Beating the defending champs on Opening Night was uplifting for both the Red Sox and their fans, but as Kevin Youkilis noted, “We’ve still got 161 games to play.’’
Winning at home is one thing, but the Red Sox will need to get it done on the road this season as well.
The Red Sox were a very good home team last year, as they have been for much of the decade. In fact, since 2003, the Red Sox 373 wins, .294 average, 5.9 runs per game, and 1,411 doubles at home lead the Majors.
However, the team's glaring weakness in 2009 was that they were significantly better at home than on the road.
The Red Sox scored 481 runs at Fenway last year, leading the Majors. But they were ninth in the Majors (fifth in the AL) in runs scored on the road, with 391. That 90 run differential was their Achilles heel, and it was exploited by the Angels in the ALDS.
The Red Sox 2009 season can be defined as a tale of two teams; the Red Sox at home, and the Red Sox on the road.
The team's lackluster road offense haunted them all season; they were just 39-42 away from Fenway in 2009.
Much of that was due to the fact that the Sox batted just .257 on the road, a number that ranked ninth in the American League behind teams like Cleveland, Oakland and Chicago.
And they were 12th in slugging on the road, at .414. That was in direct contrast to their offense at home, where they were first in slugging, at .498, and fifth in average, at .294.
The Sox road deficiencies were especially obvious in the ALDS; the team hit just .131 in Anaheim. But they exploded for six runs in Game 3 upon returning to Fenway.
Those were the issues Theo Epstein and company hoped to address this offseason; they needed to create a team with more balance, and more offense away from Fenway.
While the consensus is that the Sox' GM significantly improved the club's pitching and defense, questions remain about the offense.
Once you get past the first four batters in the Red Sox order, the questions begin.
After batting just .238 last year, can David Ortiz still hit?
Is Adrian Beltre's shoulder fully healed, and can he recover his lost offense?
Can JD Drew stay healthy and productive for at least 140 games this year?
Will Mike Cameron's free swinging ways, low average, and high strike out rate prove to be a significant offensive liability?
Can Marco Scurato repeat his 2009 season?
Those questions are yet to be answered, and we may not know the truth until perhaps some time in late May. It should take that long to get a sense of the offense this roster can produce, and for each hitter's cold or hot starts to even out.
Last night was a good sign; the Red Sox scored nine runs with the help of just one homer, a two-run shot by Dustin Pedroia.
To be successful, they will need more road offense than last season, and more balance through batting order as well. If the 5-9 hitters can be productive, the Red Sox will be a premier team, one that can win the World Series.
But there are lots of "ifs". If every batter hits like he's capable of, this will be a very fun and interesting season for the Red Sox.
That remains to be seen, with 161 games still to play.
Red Sox resident ace Josh Beckett looked rather ordinary on the mound, throwing 94 pitches in just 4.2 innings. In that span, Beckett surrendered eight hits, three walks, two home runs, and five runs in all. What's more, he had just one strike out, his fewest in nearly two years (June, 2007).
The good news was that the Red Sox came back from deficits of 5-1 and 7-5, scoring the winning run on a passed ball in the seventh.
And the Sox bullpen out dueled the Yankee pen, an optimistic sign for Sox fans everywhere.
Red Sox' bullpen: 4.1 innings, 4 hits, 2 earned runs, 3 walks, 1 strikeout
Yankees' bullpen: 2.2 innings, 6 hits, 3 earned runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout
It was also encouraging to see the new guys get off to strong starts.
Adrian Beltre went 1 for 3 with two RBIs. Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro were both 2 for 3. The trio accounted for five hits, two runs scored, two walks, three RBI – and no errors.
Beating the defending champs on Opening Night was uplifting for both the Red Sox and their fans, but as Kevin Youkilis noted, “We’ve still got 161 games to play.’’
Winning at home is one thing, but the Red Sox will need to get it done on the road this season as well.
The Red Sox were a very good home team last year, as they have been for much of the decade. In fact, since 2003, the Red Sox 373 wins, .294 average, 5.9 runs per game, and 1,411 doubles at home lead the Majors.
However, the team's glaring weakness in 2009 was that they were significantly better at home than on the road.
The Red Sox scored 481 runs at Fenway last year, leading the Majors. But they were ninth in the Majors (fifth in the AL) in runs scored on the road, with 391. That 90 run differential was their Achilles heel, and it was exploited by the Angels in the ALDS.
The Red Sox 2009 season can be defined as a tale of two teams; the Red Sox at home, and the Red Sox on the road.
The team's lackluster road offense haunted them all season; they were just 39-42 away from Fenway in 2009.
Much of that was due to the fact that the Sox batted just .257 on the road, a number that ranked ninth in the American League behind teams like Cleveland, Oakland and Chicago.
And they were 12th in slugging on the road, at .414. That was in direct contrast to their offense at home, where they were first in slugging, at .498, and fifth in average, at .294.
The Sox road deficiencies were especially obvious in the ALDS; the team hit just .131 in Anaheim. But they exploded for six runs in Game 3 upon returning to Fenway.
Those were the issues Theo Epstein and company hoped to address this offseason; they needed to create a team with more balance, and more offense away from Fenway.
While the consensus is that the Sox' GM significantly improved the club's pitching and defense, questions remain about the offense.
Once you get past the first four batters in the Red Sox order, the questions begin.
After batting just .238 last year, can David Ortiz still hit?
Is Adrian Beltre's shoulder fully healed, and can he recover his lost offense?
Can JD Drew stay healthy and productive for at least 140 games this year?
Will Mike Cameron's free swinging ways, low average, and high strike out rate prove to be a significant offensive liability?
Can Marco Scurato repeat his 2009 season?
Those questions are yet to be answered, and we may not know the truth until perhaps some time in late May. It should take that long to get a sense of the offense this roster can produce, and for each hitter's cold or hot starts to even out.
Last night was a good sign; the Red Sox scored nine runs with the help of just one homer, a two-run shot by Dustin Pedroia.
To be successful, they will need more road offense than last season, and more balance through batting order as well. If the 5-9 hitters can be productive, the Red Sox will be a premier team, one that can win the World Series.
But there are lots of "ifs". If every batter hits like he's capable of, this will be a very fun and interesting season for the Red Sox.
That remains to be seen, with 161 games still to play.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Likely 25-Man Roster As Red Sox Break Spring Training
It will be very interesting to see how the Red Sox 25-man roster finally shapes up as the team breaks camp in Fort Meyers.
There will be a few tough calls, in part because some players are out of options and can't be sent down to the minors.
The team will likely carry their customary 12-man pitching staff. Which players ultimately fill out the bullpen is still in flux.
Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, and Manny Delcarmen seem to be assured spots. The remaining two are up fro grabs.
Scott Atchison, Boof Bonser, Joe Nelson, Alan Embree and Scott Schoeneweis are all battling for the last two spots.
Bonser, who is out of options, has had some groin problems this spring. So he'll start the season on the DL, which buys both him and the Red Sox some time.
Embree got shelled on Wednesday, and since there is just one more available spot for a lefty (in addition to Okajima), Schoeneweis will likely get the nod. Atchison, who has been praised by Terry Francona, will probably get the other spot.
The Sox will carry 13 position players, which means there are four open bench spots. Jason Varitek will get one of them, as will Jeremy Hermida.
This means that Tug Hulett and Josh Reddick (who have both opened some eyes this spring), plus the versatile Bill Hall and Mike Lowell are competing for the final two spots.
Hulett, who made his debut in 2008, still has options, So, he will likely start the season in Pawtucket, along with newly acquired infielder Kevin Frandsen.
It's unfortunate that Hulett won't break camp will the big league club because he's earned it. The 27-year-old has baited .289 this spring, has two homers (tied for second) and leads the team with 15 RBI.
Another casualty of the numbers game is Reddick. The young outfielder has had a fantastic spring, leading the club with a .393 batting average and a .696 slugging percentage. He also has two homers, nine doubles and nine RBI.
Despite making the case that he belongs on the big league roster, Reddick still has options and will start the season in the minors. Unfortunately for him, he will be the odd man out, though he has proven himself more deserving than other players.
Bill Hall, though he's batted just .196, will likely make the roster due to his versatility; Hall can play multiple infield and outfield positions.
Furthermore, the Red Sox gave up Casey Kotchman for him, so they probably feel compelled to see how the 30-year-old veteran fares over the season's first couple of months. If he doesn't perform, Hulett will be waiting.
If the Sox can trade Lowell, their roster problem is solved. They would just need to receive a minor league player in return, someone who doesn't need to go on the big league roster right away.
However, with David Ortiz's continuing struggles, the club may think twice before dealing Lowell, who seems to have found his stroke at the plate.
The Sox will have to pay at least $9 million of Lowell's salary to any trade partner. At that cost, it may make more sense just to keep the veteran third baseman. If the team is convinced he can occasionally play first, his value to them is only increased.
The roster will be finalized over the next couple days, at least publicly. The team has likely made its decisions internally at this point, and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
There will be a few tough calls, in part because some players are out of options and can't be sent down to the minors.
The team will likely carry their customary 12-man pitching staff. Which players ultimately fill out the bullpen is still in flux.
Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, and Manny Delcarmen seem to be assured spots. The remaining two are up fro grabs.
Scott Atchison, Boof Bonser, Joe Nelson, Alan Embree and Scott Schoeneweis are all battling for the last two spots.
Bonser, who is out of options, has had some groin problems this spring. So he'll start the season on the DL, which buys both him and the Red Sox some time.
Embree got shelled on Wednesday, and since there is just one more available spot for a lefty (in addition to Okajima), Schoeneweis will likely get the nod. Atchison, who has been praised by Terry Francona, will probably get the other spot.
The Sox will carry 13 position players, which means there are four open bench spots. Jason Varitek will get one of them, as will Jeremy Hermida.
This means that Tug Hulett and Josh Reddick (who have both opened some eyes this spring), plus the versatile Bill Hall and Mike Lowell are competing for the final two spots.
Hulett, who made his debut in 2008, still has options, So, he will likely start the season in Pawtucket, along with newly acquired infielder Kevin Frandsen.
It's unfortunate that Hulett won't break camp will the big league club because he's earned it. The 27-year-old has baited .289 this spring, has two homers (tied for second) and leads the team with 15 RBI.
Another casualty of the numbers game is Reddick. The young outfielder has had a fantastic spring, leading the club with a .393 batting average and a .696 slugging percentage. He also has two homers, nine doubles and nine RBI.
Despite making the case that he belongs on the big league roster, Reddick still has options and will start the season in the minors. Unfortunately for him, he will be the odd man out, though he has proven himself more deserving than other players.
Bill Hall, though he's batted just .196, will likely make the roster due to his versatility; Hall can play multiple infield and outfield positions.
Furthermore, the Red Sox gave up Casey Kotchman for him, so they probably feel compelled to see how the 30-year-old veteran fares over the season's first couple of months. If he doesn't perform, Hulett will be waiting.
If the Sox can trade Lowell, their roster problem is solved. They would just need to receive a minor league player in return, someone who doesn't need to go on the big league roster right away.
However, with David Ortiz's continuing struggles, the club may think twice before dealing Lowell, who seems to have found his stroke at the plate.
The Sox will have to pay at least $9 million of Lowell's salary to any trade partner. At that cost, it may make more sense just to keep the veteran third baseman. If the team is convinced he can occasionally play first, his value to them is only increased.
The roster will be finalized over the next couple days, at least publicly. The team has likely made its decisions internally at this point, and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Waiting For David Ortiz To Rebound May Be Wishful Thinking
David Ortiz'z struggles in 2009 are well-documented.
Through 40 games and 149 at-bats last year, Ortiz was batting under .200 and had no home runs. By June 1, he was batting .185 and had one home run.
It was the longest power drought in history to start a season by a player who had hit 50 home runs in a season, as Ortiz did in 2006.
At the All-Star break, Ortiz was batting .222 with 12 homers and 47 RBI. And he continued to come on strong; over the last 69 games of the season, Ortiz hit .258 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI. And over the season's final 104 games, the Red Sox DH had 27 homers and 81 RBI.
But Ortiz went backward in the postseason, posting an anemic .083 batting average that was the result of one hit in 12 at-bats. There were no heroic home runs, no RBI, not even a walk. Ortiz had just one single and four strike outs.
The deep fears the Red Sox faced early in the season came back in a flash. Once again, Ortiz looked like a spent player.
And so far this spring, Ortiz has done nothing to convince anyone that he isn't a shell of the star he once was.
Through most of spring training, Ortiz has reverted, looking like a feeble, frustrated former slugger. He still can't consistently catch up to fastballs, and too often fouls off, pops up, or swings and misses.
In truth, Ortiz's struggles began in 2008, his worst year ever as a Red Sox player. That year he posted a .264/.369/.507 batting line that included just 23 home runs and 89 RBIs. He followed that by hitting .186 with just one home run in the postseason.
For two consecutive seasons, Ortiz has struck out more often than he's walked, a radical departure from his prime years.
And last year, though his power numbers advanced slightly from 2008, his averaged dipped to just .238. That was a huge decline for a player who had hit at least .300 three times in his first six years with the Sox.
Last season, scouts noted that Ortiz was aware he couldn't catch up to the fastball. So he cheated and started so early that he couldn't adjust to the breaking ball. Ortiz was late on fastballs, and early on breaking balls and change-ups.
As a result, teams just pounded Ortiz with fastballs inside because he couldn't consistently drive them.
Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan diagnosed Ortiz's problems last year.
"When you start earlier you've got to make up your mind sooner about whether to swing and when you do that you swing at a lot of balls out of the strike zone. When you're able to wait and allow the ball to travel, your ball-strike recognition is better. Once he has trust in being short and direct to the ball, that's when he's going to recognize pitches a little better and that's when we're going to see him driving the ball."
What's worrisome is that Ortiz hasn't been able to maintain proper adjustments, and his negative tendencies have returned.
This spring, through 53 at-bats, Ortiz is hitting .226 with 12 strike outs. He has no walks and a .293 on-base percentage.
It's part of a decline that's been ongoing for a couple of years. However, now that he's in the final year of a contract that will pay him $12.5 million this year, the Red Sox may not be as patient as they were last year.
If Ortiz continues to struggle early on, the Red Sox will likely cut bait and make a move for a reliable hitter.
Ortiz's rapid fade is eerily reminiscent of another former Sox star. Jim Rice was an MVP candidate in 1986, declined rapidly, and was completely washed up by '89. He was just 36 at the time.
Like Rice, the 34-year-old Ortiz has often been mislabeled as a slugger. Both players were viewed as power hitters because each had a proclivity for home runs.
But the truth is, in their primes, both were simply great hitters. Both players hit over .300 numerous times, and because they were big, strong men who often made contact, balls regularly left the park.
But when vision goes, as was the case with Rice, it's over. And when bat speed decreases, as seems to be the case with Ortiz, a hitter's career faces the same consequences.
Just like Rice's sudden and rapid decline, watching David Ortiz wilt is both sad and disappointing.
The Red Sox were hoping for one last hurrah from Ortiz this year, but that appears to be nothing more than wishful thinking at this point.
Through 40 games and 149 at-bats last year, Ortiz was batting under .200 and had no home runs. By June 1, he was batting .185 and had one home run.
It was the longest power drought in history to start a season by a player who had hit 50 home runs in a season, as Ortiz did in 2006.
At the All-Star break, Ortiz was batting .222 with 12 homers and 47 RBI. And he continued to come on strong; over the last 69 games of the season, Ortiz hit .258 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI. And over the season's final 104 games, the Red Sox DH had 27 homers and 81 RBI.
But Ortiz went backward in the postseason, posting an anemic .083 batting average that was the result of one hit in 12 at-bats. There were no heroic home runs, no RBI, not even a walk. Ortiz had just one single and four strike outs.
The deep fears the Red Sox faced early in the season came back in a flash. Once again, Ortiz looked like a spent player.
And so far this spring, Ortiz has done nothing to convince anyone that he isn't a shell of the star he once was.
Through most of spring training, Ortiz has reverted, looking like a feeble, frustrated former slugger. He still can't consistently catch up to fastballs, and too often fouls off, pops up, or swings and misses.
In truth, Ortiz's struggles began in 2008, his worst year ever as a Red Sox player. That year he posted a .264/.369/.507 batting line that included just 23 home runs and 89 RBIs. He followed that by hitting .186 with just one home run in the postseason.
For two consecutive seasons, Ortiz has struck out more often than he's walked, a radical departure from his prime years.
And last year, though his power numbers advanced slightly from 2008, his averaged dipped to just .238. That was a huge decline for a player who had hit at least .300 three times in his first six years with the Sox.
Last season, scouts noted that Ortiz was aware he couldn't catch up to the fastball. So he cheated and started so early that he couldn't adjust to the breaking ball. Ortiz was late on fastballs, and early on breaking balls and change-ups.
As a result, teams just pounded Ortiz with fastballs inside because he couldn't consistently drive them.
Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan diagnosed Ortiz's problems last year.
"When you start earlier you've got to make up your mind sooner about whether to swing and when you do that you swing at a lot of balls out of the strike zone. When you're able to wait and allow the ball to travel, your ball-strike recognition is better. Once he has trust in being short and direct to the ball, that's when he's going to recognize pitches a little better and that's when we're going to see him driving the ball."
What's worrisome is that Ortiz hasn't been able to maintain proper adjustments, and his negative tendencies have returned.
This spring, through 53 at-bats, Ortiz is hitting .226 with 12 strike outs. He has no walks and a .293 on-base percentage.
It's part of a decline that's been ongoing for a couple of years. However, now that he's in the final year of a contract that will pay him $12.5 million this year, the Red Sox may not be as patient as they were last year.
If Ortiz continues to struggle early on, the Red Sox will likely cut bait and make a move for a reliable hitter.
Ortiz's rapid fade is eerily reminiscent of another former Sox star. Jim Rice was an MVP candidate in 1986, declined rapidly, and was completely washed up by '89. He was just 36 at the time.
Like Rice, the 34-year-old Ortiz has often been mislabeled as a slugger. Both players were viewed as power hitters because each had a proclivity for home runs.
But the truth is, in their primes, both were simply great hitters. Both players hit over .300 numerous times, and because they were big, strong men who often made contact, balls regularly left the park.
But when vision goes, as was the case with Rice, it's over. And when bat speed decreases, as seems to be the case with Ortiz, a hitter's career faces the same consequences.
Just like Rice's sudden and rapid decline, watching David Ortiz wilt is both sad and disappointing.
The Red Sox were hoping for one last hurrah from Ortiz this year, but that appears to be nothing more than wishful thinking at this point.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Will The Red Sox Get Big Papi or Just David Ortiz?
Over the past couple of seasons, the rapid decline of David Ortiz has been somewhat spectacular.
Ortiz has not hit 30 or more home runs since 2007. His batting average dropped to .264 in 2008, and .238 last year. Meanwhile, his OBP dipped to an anemic .332 last season.
In 2006 and '07, Ortiz had more walks than strikeouts. But last season, Ortiz struck out 134 times and drew 74 walks. And in '08, Ortiz posted 74 strike outs 70 walks.
His current trend is a bad one. He has been going in the wrong direction for two straight years.
That's why there was so much interest in Ortiz going into spring training. If Ortiz swings a potent bat this season, the Red Sox offense will be all the better for it.
But there is reason for concern.
The Red Sox DH started miserably last year, and looked impotent for two solid months. At times Ortiz seemed to lack a pulse. But he still managed to finish the year with 28 homers and 99 RBI. While those are solid numbers for most hitters, they were tepid for the player who became a cult hero over his first five years in Boston.
Much to everyone's disappointment, Ortiz is hitting .214 since the start of spring training. Sadly, many of us are hardly surprised. The scary thought is that, at age 34, Ortiz may be washed up. He looks the same way he did for much of last year at the plate; lost.
Ortiz is fond of saying, "It's not how you start – it's how you finish."
But considering that this is his last year under contract in Boston, if he doesn't start strong, he may not finish the season in Boston.
Mike Lowell is still on the roster, and if he's healthy (a big "if" at this point), he could be seen as a better alternative in the DH spot. Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And if he has no stick, then what's his value and function?
Lowell suffered a left knee contusion in today's game, the effects of which are unknown at present.
Perhaps of greater concern, he told reporters the other day that his right hip may never recover the mobility he'd been hoping for. He also recognizes that he may be best suited for a DH role in the AL.
While that doesn't exactly inspire hope that he'll ever be the stellar defensive player he once was, Lowell still believes he can hit and there's little reason to doubt him.
Despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has remained an offensive threat.
That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.
So while his eventual trade has been widely viewed as a foregone conclusion, given David Ortiz's continued struggles, that may not be the case after all.
Ortiz has not hit 30 or more home runs since 2007. His batting average dropped to .264 in 2008, and .238 last year. Meanwhile, his OBP dipped to an anemic .332 last season.
In 2006 and '07, Ortiz had more walks than strikeouts. But last season, Ortiz struck out 134 times and drew 74 walks. And in '08, Ortiz posted 74 strike outs 70 walks.
His current trend is a bad one. He has been going in the wrong direction for two straight years.
That's why there was so much interest in Ortiz going into spring training. If Ortiz swings a potent bat this season, the Red Sox offense will be all the better for it.
But there is reason for concern.
The Red Sox DH started miserably last year, and looked impotent for two solid months. At times Ortiz seemed to lack a pulse. But he still managed to finish the year with 28 homers and 99 RBI. While those are solid numbers for most hitters, they were tepid for the player who became a cult hero over his first five years in Boston.
Much to everyone's disappointment, Ortiz is hitting .214 since the start of spring training. Sadly, many of us are hardly surprised. The scary thought is that, at age 34, Ortiz may be washed up. He looks the same way he did for much of last year at the plate; lost.
Ortiz is fond of saying, "It's not how you start – it's how you finish."
But considering that this is his last year under contract in Boston, if he doesn't start strong, he may not finish the season in Boston.
Mike Lowell is still on the roster, and if he's healthy (a big "if" at this point), he could be seen as a better alternative in the DH spot. Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And if he has no stick, then what's his value and function?
Lowell suffered a left knee contusion in today's game, the effects of which are unknown at present.
Perhaps of greater concern, he told reporters the other day that his right hip may never recover the mobility he'd been hoping for. He also recognizes that he may be best suited for a DH role in the AL.
While that doesn't exactly inspire hope that he'll ever be the stellar defensive player he once was, Lowell still believes he can hit and there's little reason to doubt him.
Despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has remained an offensive threat.
That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.
So while his eventual trade has been widely viewed as a foregone conclusion, given David Ortiz's continued struggles, that may not be the case after all.
Will The Red Sox Get Big Papi or Just David Ortiz?
Over the past couple of seasons, the rapid decline of David Ortiz has been somewhat spectacular.
Ortiz has not hit 30 or more home runs since 2007. His batting average dropped to .264 in 2008, and .238 last year. Meanwhile, his OBP dipped to an anemic .332 last season.
In 2006 and '07, Ortiz had more walks than strikeouts. But last season, Ortiz struck out 134 times and drew 74 walks. And in '08, Ortiz posted 74 strike outs 70 walks.
His current trend is a bad one. He has been going in the wrong direction for two straight years.
That's why there was so much interest in Ortiz going into spring training. If Ortiz swings a potent bat this season, the Red Sox offense will be all the better for it.
But there is reason for concern.
The Red Sox DH started miserably last year, and looked impotent for two solid months. At times Ortiz seemed to lack a pulse. But he still managed to finish the year with 28 homers and 99 RBI. While those are solid numbers for most hitters, they were tepid for the player who became a cult hero over his first five years in Boston.
Much to everyone's disappointment, Ortiz is hitting .214 since the start of spring training. Sadly, many of us are hardly surprised. The scary thought is that, at age 34, Ortiz may be washed up. He looks the same way he did for much of last year at the plate; lost.
Ortiz is fond of saying, "It's not how you start – it's how you finish."
But considering that this is his last year under contract in Boston, if he doesn't start strong, he may not finish the season in Boston.
Mike Lowell is still on the roster, and if he's healthy (a big "if" at this point), he could be seen as a better alternative in the DH spot. Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And if he has no stick, then what's his value and function?
Lowell suffered a left knee contusion in today's game, the effects of which are unknown at present.
Perhaps of greater concern, he told reporters the other day that his right hip may never recover the mobility he'd been hoping for. He also recognizes that he may be best suited for a DH role in the AL.
While that doesn't exactly inspire hope that he'll ever be the stellar defensive player he once was, Lowell still believes he can hit and there's little reason to doubt him.
Despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has remained an offensive threat.
That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.
So while his eventual trade has been widely viewed as a foregone conclusion, given David Ortiz's continued struggles, that may not be the case after all.
Ortiz has not hit 30 or more home runs since 2007. His batting average dropped to .264 in 2008, and .238 last year. Meanwhile, his OBP dipped to an anemic .332 last season.
In 2006 and '07, Ortiz had more walks than strikeouts. But last season, Ortiz struck out 134 times and drew 74 walks. And in '08, Ortiz posted 74 strike outs 70 walks.
His current trend is a bad one. He has been going in the wrong direction for two straight years.
That's why there was so much interest in Ortiz going into spring training. If Ortiz swings a potent bat this season, the Red Sox offense will be all the better for it.
But there is reason for concern.
The Red Sox DH started miserably last year, and looked impotent for two solid months. At times Ortiz seemed to lack a pulse. But he still managed to finish the year with 28 homers and 99 RBI. While those are solid numbers for most hitters, they were tepid for the player who became a cult hero over his first five years in Boston.
Much to everyone's disappointment, Ortiz is hitting .214 since the start of spring training. Sadly, many of us are hardly surprised. The scary thought is that, at age 34, Ortiz may be washed up. He looks the same way he did for much of last year at the plate; lost.
Ortiz is fond of saying, "It's not how you start – it's how you finish."
But considering that this is his last year under contract in Boston, if he doesn't start strong, he may not finish the season in Boston.
Mike Lowell is still on the roster, and if he's healthy (a big "if" at this point), he could be seen as a better alternative in the DH spot. Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And if he has no stick, then what's his value and function?
Lowell suffered a left knee contusion in today's game, the effects of which are unknown at present.
Perhaps of greater concern, he told reporters the other day that his right hip may never recover the mobility he'd been hoping for. He also recognizes that he may be best suited for a DH role in the AL.
While that doesn't exactly inspire hope that he'll ever be the stellar defensive player he once was, Lowell still believes he can hit and there's little reason to doubt him.
Despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has remained an offensive threat.
That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.
So while his eventual trade has been widely viewed as a foregone conclusion, given David Ortiz's continued struggles, that may not be the case after all.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Nomar Garciaparra Retires as a Red Sox
The shortstop established himself by winning Rookie of the Year in 1997. It was an eye-popping season in which he hit .306 with 122 runs, 44 doubles, 30 homers, 98 RBI, and 22 steals.
In the process, Garciaparra set new MLB records for RBI by a leadoff hitter and most homers by a rookie shortstop. In addition, his 30-game hitting streak also set an AL rookie record. To top it all off, he won the Silver Slugger Award that year.
The Red Sox, and the rest of baseball, knew there were great things to come from the burgeoning young star, and for the better part of the next six years he delivered.
Garciaparra won consecutive AL batting titles in 1999 (.357) and 2000 (.372), becoming just the fourth Red Sox player to accomplish this feat. He was also the first right-handed batter to win consecutive batting titles since Joe DiMaggio. His .372 average in 2000 is the fourth highest in club history.
But a wrist injury in spring training of 2001 ruined his season and was an omen of the injuries that would plague him for the rest of his career. Unknown at that time was that Garciaparra suffered from a degenerative disease that affected his tendons and made him more susceptible to injury.
However, Garciaparra bounced back strongly in the 2002 season, batting .310 with 24 homers and 120 RBI while leading the league with 56 doubles.
In 2003, Garciaparra was second in the Majors in triples (13), fifth in the AL in hits (198), and second in the AL in runs scored (120). Though his average dropped from previous highs, he still managed to hit .301.
Yet the shine was beginning to come off his star in Boston.
Following that season, the Red Sox tried to trade Manny Ramirez to Texas for Alex Rodriguez, who would have supplanted Garciaparra at short. Meanwhile, Garciaparra was to have been traded to the White Sox for Magglio Ordonez. But the Rodriguez trade was aborted due to protests from the players union over the restructuring of his contract.
From that point, the die was cast; Nomar's days in Boston were numbered.
From this vantage point, it's hard to believe that there was once a healthy debate over who was the better shortstop, Garciaparra, Rodriguez, or Derek Jeter. But from 1998-2000, Garciaparra had the highest career OPS of the three, and from 1997-2003, he ranked second in the AL with a .325 batting average.
The trade of Garciaparra at the deadline in 2004 is now the stuff of legend. Many believe that it was the impetus for the club's first World Series Championship in 86 years.
Once loved more than any other player by Red Sox Nation, Nomar was quickly forgotten.
But what can't be forgotten are Garciaparra's impressive stats as a member of the Red Sox.
During his nine seasons in Boston, Garciaparra compiled a .323 batting average, 178 homers, and 690 RBI in 966 games. He tallied 100 runs six times, 100 RBI four times, and 25 homers four times.
He is fourth in club history in career batting average (.323) and fifth in slugging (.553) among players with at least 1,500 at-bats.
Garciaparra also ranks among Boston’s top 15 in career doubles (ninth, 279), extra-base hits (ninth, 507), home runs (11th, 178), total bases (11th, 2,194), runs (12th, 709), and hits (14th, 1,281).
It also shouldn't be forgotten that he was voted onto five All-Star teams as a member of the Red Sox, and six in total.
Some accused Garciaparra of not being tough enough to play through his injuries during his time in Boston. But at the time, no one was aware of the disease that afflicted him.
As a member of the Cubs, Garciaparra tore the muscles in his groin while running to first during spring training in 2005. The injury effectively ruined his season. However, he rebounded strongly in 2006, winning the NL Comeback Player of the Year Award.
Allowing Nomar Garciaparra to sign a one-day minor league contract and retire as a member of the Red Sox was a very gracious gesture and the appropriate move by the organization. He is undoubtedly one of the greatest players in team history.
As Curt Schilling noted after the 2004 World Series victory, if not for Nomar, the Sox might not have been in a position to win at all.
Hopefully, that will never be forgotten—nor should Nomar's numerous illustrious achievements as a member of the Red Sox.
He is among the team's greats, and today was indeed a very fitting day.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
2010 Red Sox Rotation: New & Improved
There is a widespread consensus that the Red Sox starting rotation was significantly improved this winter. But while most of that improvement is attributed to the signing of John Lackey, there is more to it than just that.
Lackey will no doubt improve the Sox rotation. But in addition to adding the best free agent pitcher on the market, the Red Sox improved their rotation through subtraction.
The Red Sox gave 38 starts to three pitchers (Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Paul Byrd) who posted a cumulative 6.17 ERA last season, and who are no longer with the organization.
Last year, the Red Sox pitching staff often struggled after Josh Beckett and Jon Lester took their turns. The Sox received a quality start only 40 percent of the time last year when someone other than Lester or Beckett took the ball.
However, those struggles went beyond the shortcomings of Penny, Smoltz and Byrd.
Daisuke Matsuzaka was injured and ineffective most of the season, as was Tim Wakefield in the second half. But to the surprise of many, newcomers Penny and Smoltz didn't pan out nearly as well as projected.
In fact, there were 55 games last season in which Red Sox pitchers had a combined 6..28 ERA.
But this year, a healthy and in shape Daisuke Matsuzaka is returning. Dice-K's performance was awful in the eight games before going on the DL. However, in four games after returning, he threw six-plus innings per start and put up an ERA of 2.22.
The Red Sox need more of that pitcher, not the one who who's innings per start have been in steady decline. Dice-K's innings per start have dropped from 6.4 in 2007, to 5.8 in 2008, down to 4.9 last year.
Though Matsuzaka won 33 games over his first two seasons (the fourth most in baseball), of the 12 pitchers to win at least 30 games in that span, he ranked last in innings pitched.
With Clay Buchholz poised to join the rotation on a full-time basis, in addition to the 31-year-old Lackey, the Sox rotation will be a lot younger this season. Gone are the elder-statesmen Smotlz and Byrd, and Wakefield will likely have a diminished role.
Indeed, I do believe that Buchholz is a lock for one of the five rotation spots. Red Sox management believes that he is ready to finally break out, and that he can win as many as 12-15 games this year.
The fifth spot will come down to the health and effectiveness of Matsuzaka and Wakefield. Despite Matsuzka's recent back issues, being 14 years Wakefield's junior likely gives him the advantage.
The hope is that by getting younger the rotation will also be healthier and more effective this season. On Opening Day, Lackey will be 31, Beckett will be 30, Matsuzaka 29, Lester 26, and Buchholz 25. The seasoned veteran, Wakefield, will be 43.
The Sox rotation will be bolstered by three pitchers in the primes of their careers who have each won the deciding game of a World Series (Lackey, Becket and Lester). Each of them would be a viable no. 1 stater on almost any rotation.
However, nothing is guaranteed; the trio still has to go out and prove that they are the best front line in the Majors. If anyone gets injured, the team's high expectations could be dashed. After all, starting pitching should be one of the Red Sox' overwhelming strengths this year.
Lackey should certainly be an asset to the team's rotation; he has a career 3.81 ERA, all in the AL. And he can be innings eater, having reached 200 innings in four seasons, and 198 in another.
However, Lackey hasn't come close to 200 the last two seasons, missing a month-plus in each due to arm trouble. In 2008 he made just 24 starts, and last year he made 27.
As a result, Lackey has only thrown 163 1/3 and 176 1/3 innings the last two seasons. Depending on how you look at it, that's either a good or a bad thing.
After making just 51 starts over the last two years, some might take the view that Lackey's arm hasn't received as much wear as if he'd made the customary 30-plus starts each year. Perhaps his arm has been somewhat preserved, leaving him fresh this year and beyond.
The Red Sox obviously think so. They had better hope so.
After striking out 199 and 190 batters in consecutive seasons in 2005-06, Lackey's strikeout rate has dipped dramatically, down to 179, then 130, and 139 each of the last three seasons.
So, there is legitimate reason for concern. Lackey has pitched in – and won – some big games. But his resume does have holes.
The big Texan is 31 and has never won more than 19 games. Overall, he has won just 102 games in eight seasons – an average of 13 wins per year. And he has never struck out 200 batters in any season, though he did fan 199 in 2005.
The Red Sox invested a lot in John Lackey, and they have a lot riding on that investment. At the outset, given his age, experience and history, he seems a better bet for success than Brad Penny, John Smoltz or Paul Byrd ever did last year.
If healthy, the Red Sox' staff should be among the elite rotations in the Majors in 2010, and perhaps beyond.
Lackey will no doubt improve the Sox rotation. But in addition to adding the best free agent pitcher on the market, the Red Sox improved their rotation through subtraction.
The Red Sox gave 38 starts to three pitchers (Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Paul Byrd) who posted a cumulative 6.17 ERA last season, and who are no longer with the organization.
Last year, the Red Sox pitching staff often struggled after Josh Beckett and Jon Lester took their turns. The Sox received a quality start only 40 percent of the time last year when someone other than Lester or Beckett took the ball.
However, those struggles went beyond the shortcomings of Penny, Smoltz and Byrd.
Daisuke Matsuzaka was injured and ineffective most of the season, as was Tim Wakefield in the second half. But to the surprise of many, newcomers Penny and Smoltz didn't pan out nearly as well as projected.
In fact, there were 55 games last season in which Red Sox pitchers had a combined 6..28 ERA.
But this year, a healthy and in shape Daisuke Matsuzaka is returning. Dice-K's performance was awful in the eight games before going on the DL. However, in four games after returning, he threw six-plus innings per start and put up an ERA of 2.22.
The Red Sox need more of that pitcher, not the one who who's innings per start have been in steady decline. Dice-K's innings per start have dropped from 6.4 in 2007, to 5.8 in 2008, down to 4.9 last year.
Though Matsuzaka won 33 games over his first two seasons (the fourth most in baseball), of the 12 pitchers to win at least 30 games in that span, he ranked last in innings pitched.
With Clay Buchholz poised to join the rotation on a full-time basis, in addition to the 31-year-old Lackey, the Sox rotation will be a lot younger this season. Gone are the elder-statesmen Smotlz and Byrd, and Wakefield will likely have a diminished role.
Indeed, I do believe that Buchholz is a lock for one of the five rotation spots. Red Sox management believes that he is ready to finally break out, and that he can win as many as 12-15 games this year.
The fifth spot will come down to the health and effectiveness of Matsuzaka and Wakefield. Despite Matsuzka's recent back issues, being 14 years Wakefield's junior likely gives him the advantage.
The hope is that by getting younger the rotation will also be healthier and more effective this season. On Opening Day, Lackey will be 31, Beckett will be 30, Matsuzaka 29, Lester 26, and Buchholz 25. The seasoned veteran, Wakefield, will be 43.
The Sox rotation will be bolstered by three pitchers in the primes of their careers who have each won the deciding game of a World Series (Lackey, Becket and Lester). Each of them would be a viable no. 1 stater on almost any rotation.
However, nothing is guaranteed; the trio still has to go out and prove that they are the best front line in the Majors. If anyone gets injured, the team's high expectations could be dashed. After all, starting pitching should be one of the Red Sox' overwhelming strengths this year.
Lackey should certainly be an asset to the team's rotation; he has a career 3.81 ERA, all in the AL. And he can be innings eater, having reached 200 innings in four seasons, and 198 in another.
However, Lackey hasn't come close to 200 the last two seasons, missing a month-plus in each due to arm trouble. In 2008 he made just 24 starts, and last year he made 27.
As a result, Lackey has only thrown 163 1/3 and 176 1/3 innings the last two seasons. Depending on how you look at it, that's either a good or a bad thing.
After making just 51 starts over the last two years, some might take the view that Lackey's arm hasn't received as much wear as if he'd made the customary 30-plus starts each year. Perhaps his arm has been somewhat preserved, leaving him fresh this year and beyond.
The Red Sox obviously think so. They had better hope so.
After striking out 199 and 190 batters in consecutive seasons in 2005-06, Lackey's strikeout rate has dipped dramatically, down to 179, then 130, and 139 each of the last three seasons.
So, there is legitimate reason for concern. Lackey has pitched in – and won – some big games. But his resume does have holes.
The big Texan is 31 and has never won more than 19 games. Overall, he has won just 102 games in eight seasons – an average of 13 wins per year. And he has never struck out 200 batters in any season, though he did fan 199 in 2005.
The Red Sox invested a lot in John Lackey, and they have a lot riding on that investment. At the outset, given his age, experience and history, he seems a better bet for success than Brad Penny, John Smoltz or Paul Byrd ever did last year.
If healthy, the Red Sox' staff should be among the elite rotations in the Majors in 2010, and perhaps beyond.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
2010 Red Sox Will Look Like A Very Different Team
The Red Sox open Spring Training for the 2010 season this week. It will be a welcome moment for the millions of Red Sox fans just jonesing for baseball since the 2009 season ended so abruptly.
The boys from Boston will look like a very different team on Opening Day; five of the nine roster positions will have different players from the last Opening Day.
This winter, the Sox picked up Jeremy Hermida, Marco Scuatro, John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Bill Hall, in succession. That's quite a bit of change.
Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, Jason Bay, and Rocco Baldelli are all gone, not to mention Javier Lopez, Takashi Saito, and Billy Wagner. Perhaps even Mike Lowell will join their ranks.
Defensively, at least, the Sox will be significantly improved. The pitchers will feel very confident with four Gold Glove-caliber players patrolling the infield, and the outfield should be outstanding as well. As always, JD Drew just has to stay healthy. The Red Sox would love to get at least 140 games out of him, but it's hard to expect.
On the whole the Sox got more athletic. Hermida should give them more offense than Baldelli. And Cameron, Beltre, and Scutaro should at least be a wash in replacing the offense of Bay, Lowell and Gonzalez/Green.
It will be really interesting to see how Lowell looks in spring training. Just imagine if he gets off to a hot start and David Ortiz looks anemic again. Lowell is a far more versatile player. If Papi isn't tearing the cover off the ball, he's just dead weight. In that scenario, Lowell would be a better DH / reserve third baseman.
The bat the team hoped to acquire this offseason may be Victor Martinez, who only played two months with the Sox last year. Taking Jason Varitek out of the every day lineup will pay dividends. Offensively at least, that will result in a significant upgrade at the position.
Speaking of offense, I have to believe that Scutaro will be an upgrade over Gonzalez,. We can only hope that last year wasn't a freak season and that Scutaro doesn't decline. The good news is that he excelled in the AL East. Defensively, he's said to be every bit as good as Gonzo.
The Sox finished 28th among the Major Leagues’ 30 teams in defensive efficiency in 2009. That simply had to be addressed, and the team did so.
I suspect that Beltre is a former PED user. His 2004 output was totally out of character from any period before, or since. But he doesn't have to perform like that again to be a success in Boston. He's still only 31, and if he can give the Sox 25 homers, they'll be thrilled. Playing half the season in Fenway, instead of Safeco Field, should do wonders for his offense.
I must say that I'm really eager to watch this Red Sox team. The Yankees, as always, will be tough to beat; injuries could decide the division. With such tight competition, it's critical to be healthy down the stretch, and in October.
But not re-signing Johnny Damon may be a decision the Yankees come to regret. They won't be as good without him this season. Curtis Granderson and Randy Winn won't make up for the losses of Hideki Matsui and Damon.
Now if only Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera will start acting their age.
The X-Factor for the Red Sox may turn out to be Jonathan Papelbon. The last time we saw him, he was uncharacteristically melting down at Fenway in Game 3 of the ALDS. To that point, Papelbon had been nearly perfect in postseason play: 17 appearances and 26 scoreless innings.
In 2007-08, Papelbon walked a total of 23 batters; in 2009, he walked 24. Obviously, something was amiss with his control.
Papelbon now realizes that he became far too reliant on his fastball last year, at the expense of his once-trusted splitter. The closer admits that he was overthrowing late last season, including the playoffs. He'll need to regain that pitch to re-establish his dominance.
Last year, Papelbon's ERA dropped to 1.85, from 2.35 in 2008. That matched the 1.85 ERA he posted in the Red Sox championship season of 2007. And he converted 38 of 41 save opportunities last season, better than the 41 of 46 in 2008.
The Sox closer will be just 29 this season, and in the prime of his career. He is eager to put last October's meltdown behind him.
One thing's for certain; he and the other Red Sox pitchers should be well-served by the defense behind them this year.
There are some concerns about the offense, but for what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus projects the Red Sox scoring in excess of 800 runs this season, and finishing atop the AL East.
Now the Sox just need to go out and a prove them right.
The boys from Boston will look like a very different team on Opening Day; five of the nine roster positions will have different players from the last Opening Day.
This winter, the Sox picked up Jeremy Hermida, Marco Scuatro, John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Bill Hall, in succession. That's quite a bit of change.
Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, Jason Bay, and Rocco Baldelli are all gone, not to mention Javier Lopez, Takashi Saito, and Billy Wagner. Perhaps even Mike Lowell will join their ranks.
Defensively, at least, the Sox will be significantly improved. The pitchers will feel very confident with four Gold Glove-caliber players patrolling the infield, and the outfield should be outstanding as well. As always, JD Drew just has to stay healthy. The Red Sox would love to get at least 140 games out of him, but it's hard to expect.
On the whole the Sox got more athletic. Hermida should give them more offense than Baldelli. And Cameron, Beltre, and Scutaro should at least be a wash in replacing the offense of Bay, Lowell and Gonzalez/Green.
It will be really interesting to see how Lowell looks in spring training. Just imagine if he gets off to a hot start and David Ortiz looks anemic again. Lowell is a far more versatile player. If Papi isn't tearing the cover off the ball, he's just dead weight. In that scenario, Lowell would be a better DH / reserve third baseman.
The bat the team hoped to acquire this offseason may be Victor Martinez, who only played two months with the Sox last year. Taking Jason Varitek out of the every day lineup will pay dividends. Offensively at least, that will result in a significant upgrade at the position.
Speaking of offense, I have to believe that Scutaro will be an upgrade over Gonzalez,. We can only hope that last year wasn't a freak season and that Scutaro doesn't decline. The good news is that he excelled in the AL East. Defensively, he's said to be every bit as good as Gonzo.
The Sox finished 28th among the Major Leagues’ 30 teams in defensive efficiency in 2009. That simply had to be addressed, and the team did so.
I suspect that Beltre is a former PED user. His 2004 output was totally out of character from any period before, or since. But he doesn't have to perform like that again to be a success in Boston. He's still only 31, and if he can give the Sox 25 homers, they'll be thrilled. Playing half the season in Fenway, instead of Safeco Field, should do wonders for his offense.
I must say that I'm really eager to watch this Red Sox team. The Yankees, as always, will be tough to beat; injuries could decide the division. With such tight competition, it's critical to be healthy down the stretch, and in October.
But not re-signing Johnny Damon may be a decision the Yankees come to regret. They won't be as good without him this season. Curtis Granderson and Randy Winn won't make up for the losses of Hideki Matsui and Damon.
Now if only Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera will start acting their age.
The X-Factor for the Red Sox may turn out to be Jonathan Papelbon. The last time we saw him, he was uncharacteristically melting down at Fenway in Game 3 of the ALDS. To that point, Papelbon had been nearly perfect in postseason play: 17 appearances and 26 scoreless innings.
In 2007-08, Papelbon walked a total of 23 batters; in 2009, he walked 24. Obviously, something was amiss with his control.
Papelbon now realizes that he became far too reliant on his fastball last year, at the expense of his once-trusted splitter. The closer admits that he was overthrowing late last season, including the playoffs. He'll need to regain that pitch to re-establish his dominance.
Last year, Papelbon's ERA dropped to 1.85, from 2.35 in 2008. That matched the 1.85 ERA he posted in the Red Sox championship season of 2007. And he converted 38 of 41 save opportunities last season, better than the 41 of 46 in 2008.
The Sox closer will be just 29 this season, and in the prime of his career. He is eager to put last October's meltdown behind him.
One thing's for certain; he and the other Red Sox pitchers should be well-served by the defense behind them this year.
There are some concerns about the offense, but for what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus projects the Red Sox scoring in excess of 800 runs this season, and finishing atop the AL East.
Now the Sox just need to go out and a prove them right.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
MLB's Money Problem Is A Revenue Sharing Problem
Baseball commissioner Bud Selig says some Major League Baseball teams lost money in 2009, though he has declined to name which teams.
"We don't live in a bubble. And so, I think the clubs in some areas have been hit a lot harder than others," said Selig.
Total attendance was 73.4 million last year, MLB's fifth-highest ever. However, Major League attendance was down seven percent collectively.
MLB's attendance dropped from an average of 32,528 per game in 2008 to an average of 30,350 in 2009.
Like the rest of Detroit, the Tigers are facing financial difficulty. They had one of baseball's biggest attendance drops last season, from a franchise-record 3.2 million in 2008 to fewer than 2.6 million in '09. That amounted to a 20 percent decline.
But the Tigers downturn wasn't even the worst in baseball.
The Mets had the biggest dropoff in attendance from 2008, at 24 percent. The Nationals were down 22 percent, and the Padres declined 22 percent.
While some teams are struggling, others are living quite nicely off of MLB's revenue sharing agreement.
About $400 million — or 34 percent of each team's net local revenue — was distributed to small market teams last year. Most of that percentage came from the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and other high-revenue teams.
However, the Marlins, Royals, and Pirates are taking in more in revenue-sharing than they are spending on MLB player payroll, and showing a profit.
That has gotten the attention of MLB Players Association executive director Michael Weiner.
"We're concerned when we have clubs that are not using the receipts for the purpose to which they were intended under our contract. It's the players' job to enforce that provision,” said Weiner last month.
According to Forbes Magazine's annual team valuations (specifically based on Operating Income, a measure of profitability), the clubs with the lowest player payrolls, who receive the lion’s share of revenue-sharing, are some the league’s most profitable.
The players' union has expressed concerns that revenue sharing proceeds have not been used as required by some teams.
For instance, the Marlins' team payroll has been so small as to violate Major League Baseball's revenue sharing provisions. The Marlins, plagued by poor attendance, have had the lowest payroll in MLB in three of the past four seasons.
Under pressure, last week the Marlins reached an agreement with the players' union to increase spending by an unspecified amount.
MLB's basic agreement calls for each club to use its revenue sharing receipts in an effort to improve the team. But that's clearly not happening. Some clubs (such as the Pirates) are paying down stadium debt, which seems in violation of the agreement.
Perhaps it is financial concerns that has resulted in the large number of still unsigned free agents, many of whom have fine pedigrees.
As of Sunday, the following free agents were all still available:
1B: Russell Branyan, Carlos Delgado
2B: Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez
SS: Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada
3B: Joe Crede, Melvin Mora
DH: Jim Thome, Jason Giambi
OF: Rick Ankiel, Reed Johnson
OF: Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady
OF: Jermaine Dye, Gary Sheffield
C: Bengie Molina, Jose Molina
SP: Joel Piniero, Vicente Padilla
SP: Jon Garland, Pedro Martinez
SP: Ben Sheets, Braden Looper
SP: Chien-Ming Wang, Mark Mulder
SP: Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn
RP: Kiko Calero, Chan Ho Park,
RP: Ron Villone, Kevin Gregg
RP: David Weathers, Jamey Wright
It's an interesting list, and indicates that there is still value to be had, even for lower payroll teams.
As it stands, they are being subsidized by the big market clubs anyway. There is no excuse for them not to spend.
"We don't live in a bubble. And so, I think the clubs in some areas have been hit a lot harder than others," said Selig.
Total attendance was 73.4 million last year, MLB's fifth-highest ever. However, Major League attendance was down seven percent collectively.
MLB's attendance dropped from an average of 32,528 per game in 2008 to an average of 30,350 in 2009.
Like the rest of Detroit, the Tigers are facing financial difficulty. They had one of baseball's biggest attendance drops last season, from a franchise-record 3.2 million in 2008 to fewer than 2.6 million in '09. That amounted to a 20 percent decline.
But the Tigers downturn wasn't even the worst in baseball.
The Mets had the biggest dropoff in attendance from 2008, at 24 percent. The Nationals were down 22 percent, and the Padres declined 22 percent.
While some teams are struggling, others are living quite nicely off of MLB's revenue sharing agreement.
About $400 million — or 34 percent of each team's net local revenue — was distributed to small market teams last year. Most of that percentage came from the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and other high-revenue teams.
However, the Marlins, Royals, and Pirates are taking in more in revenue-sharing than they are spending on MLB player payroll, and showing a profit.
That has gotten the attention of MLB Players Association executive director Michael Weiner.
"We're concerned when we have clubs that are not using the receipts for the purpose to which they were intended under our contract. It's the players' job to enforce that provision,” said Weiner last month.
According to Forbes Magazine's annual team valuations (specifically based on Operating Income, a measure of profitability), the clubs with the lowest player payrolls, who receive the lion’s share of revenue-sharing, are some the league’s most profitable.
The players' union has expressed concerns that revenue sharing proceeds have not been used as required by some teams.
For instance, the Marlins' team payroll has been so small as to violate Major League Baseball's revenue sharing provisions. The Marlins, plagued by poor attendance, have had the lowest payroll in MLB in three of the past four seasons.
Under pressure, last week the Marlins reached an agreement with the players' union to increase spending by an unspecified amount.
MLB's basic agreement calls for each club to use its revenue sharing receipts in an effort to improve the team. But that's clearly not happening. Some clubs (such as the Pirates) are paying down stadium debt, which seems in violation of the agreement.
Perhaps it is financial concerns that has resulted in the large number of still unsigned free agents, many of whom have fine pedigrees.
As of Sunday, the following free agents were all still available:
1B: Russell Branyan, Carlos Delgado
2B: Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez
SS: Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada
3B: Joe Crede, Melvin Mora
DH: Jim Thome, Jason Giambi
OF: Rick Ankiel, Reed Johnson
OF: Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady
OF: Jermaine Dye, Gary Sheffield
C: Bengie Molina, Jose Molina
SP: Joel Piniero, Vicente Padilla
SP: Jon Garland, Pedro Martinez
SP: Ben Sheets, Braden Looper
SP: Chien-Ming Wang, Mark Mulder
SP: Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn
RP: Kiko Calero, Chan Ho Park,
RP: Ron Villone, Kevin Gregg
RP: David Weathers, Jamey Wright
It's an interesting list, and indicates that there is still value to be had, even for lower payroll teams.
As it stands, they are being subsidized by the big market clubs anyway. There is no excuse for them not to spend.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
Red Sox Roster Mostly Set with Latest Moves
Getting Adrian Beltre for a guarantee of just one year and $10 million has to be viewed as a steal for the Red Sox. It's a huge come-down from Scott Boras's early demands of four years and $40 million, or more.
Beltre earned $12 million last season and would have received a bump up in arbitration, which he declined. Perhaps he was just desperate to get out of the expansive Safeco Field.
The Red Sox obviously feel Beltre's surgically repaired shoulder is fully healed, that he can still play stellar defense, and that Fenway will revitalize his offense—which slumped markedly last season.
Beltre is a free swinger who doesn't see very many pitches per at-bat (3.56/AB last season; 3.70 over the previous four seasons). He also has an atrocious .325 carer OBP. However, he does possess a .270 career batting average.
And Beltre averaged 25 homers and a .793 OPS for the Mariners from 2006 to ’08 despite playing at Safeco Field, a power sapper for right-handed hitters. For comparison's sake, Mike Lowell has produced an impressive .829 OPS over four seasons in Boston. During that period, Lowell has averaged 19 homers and 87 RBI.
Beltre was like two different players, depending on whether he was hitting at Safeco or on the road.
Over his five-year career with the Mariners (2005-2009), Beltre played 353 games at Safeco, where he hit .254, with 116 extra-base hits and 174 RBI. In that span, Beltre also played 362 road games, in which he batted .277, with 167 extras-base hits and 222 RBI.
The left field foul pole at Safeco is 331 feet from home plate, and the left field power alley is 390 feet away. For comparison's sake, Fenway Park measures 310 feet down the left field line, and 379 feet in left center.
As a Mariner, Beltre posted a .277 batting average and .813 OPS away from the canyon-like Safeco. Quite similarly, Lowell’s career averages are .280 and .810, respectively. But Beltre is five years younger than Lowell, with better range and speed.
Fenway should be kinder to Beltre. While that remains to be seen, over the course of his 12-year career, he has proven himself as a power-hitter and a run producer.
During the five-year period that Beltre played with Seattle, the only third baseman in the AL to finish with more homers and RBI was Alex Rodriguez.
But to look solely at Beltre's offensive numbers is to miss the point. The Red Sox are aiming to put a premier defense on the field this season and Beltre, a top-notch defender, is part of that strategy.
Widely considered one of the two or three best defensive third basemen in the game today, the Dominican native won back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2007 and 2008.
Last season Beltre posted a .959 fielding percentage, making 14 errors over his 110 starts.
Some fans got caught up in his eye-popping 2004 season with the Dodgers, when he belted 48 homers, drove in 121 runs, and batted .334. But Beltre had never before, and has never since, had a season remotely resembling that one. If he bounces back to hit 25 homers and plays exceptional defense, as he has in the past, the Red Sox will be thrilled.
The crazy thing is that the Red Sox could end up paying $20 million or more in 2010 for Beltre and Lowell, as well as $14 million for shortstops Julio Lugo and Marco Scutaro. That's a lot of money, especially considering that one player, and perhaps two, will be playing for another team in 2010.
Casey Kotchman's tenure as the starting first baseman was awfully brief. The Red Sox essentially exchanged Kotchman for Beltre, and the move should benefit them this season.
However, the Sox now have a trio third basemen on their roster (Beltre, Lowell, and Bill Hall). That would appear to make them desperate to move Lowell. But that could change.
David Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And he has been fading offensively for two consecutive seasons. Last year, he hit a paltry .238, which followed a 2008 season in which he hit .264. That's a dramatic decline for a guy who had been a .302 hitter over his first five seasons in Boston. The point is, Ortiz was more than just a power hitter, he was a very good all around hitter.
Those days may be long since over. Ortiz had a horrible first two months of the 2009 season, and another slump when his steroids scandal broke. Say what what you will about distractions, but all the hoopla never hurt Barry Bonds.
Both Lowell and Ortiz are under contract for roughly the same $12 million this season. If Lowell is hot at the plate in spring training, and Ortiz looks similarly old with diminished bat speed, Ortiz could be the one on the block.
If Lowell is healthy, he is far more versatile. If he shows that he can handle first base in Fort Meyers, that would give him a considerable advantage over Ortiz to remain with the club for the duration of 2010. That said, I did use the word "if" three times in that scenario.
Trading for Bill Hall is confounding; the Sox' bench was already too deep with Kotchman, Lowell, Lowrie, Varitek and Hermida. With five players on the bench, they couldn't carry their customary 12-man pitching staff. So someone had to go.
But replacing Kotchman with Hall doesn't solve that problem. And Hall has played 805 career games, meaning he is long since out of options and can't be sent to Pawtucket.
What this tells us is that Jed Lowrie will start his season at Triple A and may remain there unless his wrist is fully recovered, allowing his offense to bloom once again..
That aside, Hall is a career .251 hitter, with a .309 OBP. Apart from being abysmal, those stats fly in the face of the Sox' organizational philosophy. Additionally, Hall's career fielding percentage is .962, and .838 as a third baseman. That's just horrible.
However, Hall is a utility player with Major League experience in left field, right field, second base and shortstop.
He had a freak year in 2006 when he hit 35 homers, which was twice his output in any year before or since.
Hall is 30 years old and is a fully developed player. I just don't get it. The best you can say is that he is a more versatile player in the field than Kotchman.
The two newest additions seem to mostly set the Red Sox roster, depending on what becomes of Lowell, or possibly Ortiz.
The team's pitching and defense were clearly improved this offseason, and the offense should still be good enough to compete in the AL East and get them into the playoffs.
And once in the playoffs, pitching and defense reign supreme.
That's just what the Red Sox are counting on.
Beltre earned $12 million last season and would have received a bump up in arbitration, which he declined. Perhaps he was just desperate to get out of the expansive Safeco Field.
The Red Sox obviously feel Beltre's surgically repaired shoulder is fully healed, that he can still play stellar defense, and that Fenway will revitalize his offense—which slumped markedly last season.
Beltre is a free swinger who doesn't see very many pitches per at-bat (3.56/AB last season; 3.70 over the previous four seasons). He also has an atrocious .325 carer OBP. However, he does possess a .270 career batting average.
And Beltre averaged 25 homers and a .793 OPS for the Mariners from 2006 to ’08 despite playing at Safeco Field, a power sapper for right-handed hitters. For comparison's sake, Mike Lowell has produced an impressive .829 OPS over four seasons in Boston. During that period, Lowell has averaged 19 homers and 87 RBI.
Beltre was like two different players, depending on whether he was hitting at Safeco or on the road.
Over his five-year career with the Mariners (2005-2009), Beltre played 353 games at Safeco, where he hit .254, with 116 extra-base hits and 174 RBI. In that span, Beltre also played 362 road games, in which he batted .277, with 167 extras-base hits and 222 RBI.
The left field foul pole at Safeco is 331 feet from home plate, and the left field power alley is 390 feet away. For comparison's sake, Fenway Park measures 310 feet down the left field line, and 379 feet in left center.
As a Mariner, Beltre posted a .277 batting average and .813 OPS away from the canyon-like Safeco. Quite similarly, Lowell’s career averages are .280 and .810, respectively. But Beltre is five years younger than Lowell, with better range and speed.
Fenway should be kinder to Beltre. While that remains to be seen, over the course of his 12-year career, he has proven himself as a power-hitter and a run producer.
During the five-year period that Beltre played with Seattle, the only third baseman in the AL to finish with more homers and RBI was Alex Rodriguez.
But to look solely at Beltre's offensive numbers is to miss the point. The Red Sox are aiming to put a premier defense on the field this season and Beltre, a top-notch defender, is part of that strategy.
Widely considered one of the two or three best defensive third basemen in the game today, the Dominican native won back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2007 and 2008.
Last season Beltre posted a .959 fielding percentage, making 14 errors over his 110 starts.
Some fans got caught up in his eye-popping 2004 season with the Dodgers, when he belted 48 homers, drove in 121 runs, and batted .334. But Beltre had never before, and has never since, had a season remotely resembling that one. If he bounces back to hit 25 homers and plays exceptional defense, as he has in the past, the Red Sox will be thrilled.
The crazy thing is that the Red Sox could end up paying $20 million or more in 2010 for Beltre and Lowell, as well as $14 million for shortstops Julio Lugo and Marco Scutaro. That's a lot of money, especially considering that one player, and perhaps two, will be playing for another team in 2010.
Casey Kotchman's tenure as the starting first baseman was awfully brief. The Red Sox essentially exchanged Kotchman for Beltre, and the move should benefit them this season.
However, the Sox now have a trio third basemen on their roster (Beltre, Lowell, and Bill Hall). That would appear to make them desperate to move Lowell. But that could change.
David Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And he has been fading offensively for two consecutive seasons. Last year, he hit a paltry .238, which followed a 2008 season in which he hit .264. That's a dramatic decline for a guy who had been a .302 hitter over his first five seasons in Boston. The point is, Ortiz was more than just a power hitter, he was a very good all around hitter.
Those days may be long since over. Ortiz had a horrible first two months of the 2009 season, and another slump when his steroids scandal broke. Say what what you will about distractions, but all the hoopla never hurt Barry Bonds.
Both Lowell and Ortiz are under contract for roughly the same $12 million this season. If Lowell is hot at the plate in spring training, and Ortiz looks similarly old with diminished bat speed, Ortiz could be the one on the block.
If Lowell is healthy, he is far more versatile. If he shows that he can handle first base in Fort Meyers, that would give him a considerable advantage over Ortiz to remain with the club for the duration of 2010. That said, I did use the word "if" three times in that scenario.
Trading for Bill Hall is confounding; the Sox' bench was already too deep with Kotchman, Lowell, Lowrie, Varitek and Hermida. With five players on the bench, they couldn't carry their customary 12-man pitching staff. So someone had to go.
But replacing Kotchman with Hall doesn't solve that problem. And Hall has played 805 career games, meaning he is long since out of options and can't be sent to Pawtucket.
What this tells us is that Jed Lowrie will start his season at Triple A and may remain there unless his wrist is fully recovered, allowing his offense to bloom once again..
That aside, Hall is a career .251 hitter, with a .309 OBP. Apart from being abysmal, those stats fly in the face of the Sox' organizational philosophy. Additionally, Hall's career fielding percentage is .962, and .838 as a third baseman. That's just horrible.
However, Hall is a utility player with Major League experience in left field, right field, second base and shortstop.
He had a freak year in 2006 when he hit 35 homers, which was twice his output in any year before or since.
Hall is 30 years old and is a fully developed player. I just don't get it. The best you can say is that he is a more versatile player in the field than Kotchman.
The two newest additions seem to mostly set the Red Sox roster, depending on what becomes of Lowell, or possibly Ortiz.
The team's pitching and defense were clearly improved this offseason, and the offense should still be good enough to compete in the AL East and get them into the playoffs.
And once in the playoffs, pitching and defense reign supreme.
That's just what the Red Sox are counting on.
Upcoming Events on Red Sox and MLB Calendar
Jan 5-15 — Salary arbitration filing period
Jan. 13-14 — Owners meetings, Scottsdale, Ariz.
Jan. 19 — Exchange of salary arbitration figures
Feb. 1-21 — Salary arbitration hearings period, St. Petersburg, Fla.
Feb. 12 — Truck Day: Red Sox equipment truck will leave Fenway Park for arrival in Fort Myers, Fla.
Feb. 18 — Spring training: Reporting day for Red Sox pitchers and catchers; MLB voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
Feb. 20 — Spring training: First workout for Red Sox pitchers and catchers
Feb. 22 — Spring training: Reporting day for Red Sox positional players
Feb. 23 — Spring training: MLB voluntary reporting date for other players
Feb. 24 — Spring training: First Red Sox full-squad workout
March 2 — Spring training: Mandatory reporting date for players
March 2-11 — Teams may renew contracts of unsigned players
March 3 — First Red Sox spring training game vs. Northeastern
March 17 — Last day to place a player on unconditional release waivers and pay 30 days termination pay instead of 45 days
March 31 — Last day to request unconditional release waivers on a player without having to pay his full 2010 salary
April 3 — Last Red Sox spring training game vs. Nationals (Nationals Park)
April 4 — MLB Opening Night: Red Sox vs. Yankees at Fenway Park; active rosters reduced to 25 players
Jan. 13-14 — Owners meetings, Scottsdale, Ariz.
Jan. 19 — Exchange of salary arbitration figures
Feb. 1-21 — Salary arbitration hearings period, St. Petersburg, Fla.
Feb. 12 — Truck Day: Red Sox equipment truck will leave Fenway Park for arrival in Fort Myers, Fla.
Feb. 18 — Spring training: Reporting day for Red Sox pitchers and catchers; MLB voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
Feb. 20 — Spring training: First workout for Red Sox pitchers and catchers
Feb. 22 — Spring training: Reporting day for Red Sox positional players
Feb. 23 — Spring training: MLB voluntary reporting date for other players
Feb. 24 — Spring training: First Red Sox full-squad workout
March 2 — Spring training: Mandatory reporting date for players
March 2-11 — Teams may renew contracts of unsigned players
March 3 — First Red Sox spring training game vs. Northeastern
March 17 — Last day to place a player on unconditional release waivers and pay 30 days termination pay instead of 45 days
March 31 — Last day to request unconditional release waivers on a player without having to pay his full 2010 salary
April 3 — Last Red Sox spring training game vs. Nationals (Nationals Park)
April 4 — MLB Opening Night: Red Sox vs. Yankees at Fenway Park; active rosters reduced to 25 players
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