Saturday, May 27, 2006

STAND OR FALL

The Red Sox were advertised as a team built on pitching and defense this year. So far, that's been mostly, but not entirely true.

To begin with, their starting pitching has been good, thanks to Curt Schilling (7-2. 3.80 ERA) and Josh Beckett (7-1, 3.80 ERA), but not great. After all, Tim Wakefield, the designated number two starter, is 3-6 with a 4.57 ERA. Some would argue that he hasn't been given adequate run support, but that doesn't explain the ERA. Then there's Matt Clement, with his 4-4 record and disturbing 6.31 ERA. And the Lenny DiNardo experiment didn't fare so well.

Yet, the Sox have battled through, not knowing who their number five starter will be. Instead they've relied on Schilling, Beckett, and the incredible defense that ranks number one in the AL, with only 15 errors in 45 games. But that isn't all. The Sox have discovered a surprisingly potent offense to go along with their stellar defense.

For all the talk of how much offense the Sox sacrificed to put a greater emphasis on pitching and defense, the offense has been quite similar to last season's explosive team. The Sox are hitting .281, sixth best in baseball, and slightly better than the average they had through this time last season. They're averaging 5.5 runs, nearly identical to last season's 5.6 average, and have hit home runs at roughly the same pace as well (53 in 45 games this season).

But questions about the starting rotation persist. Does anyone really believe that this staff, as currently constructed, can advance to the World Series, much less win it? I'd say they're clearly one starter short of that objective.

So, tonight was a big night in David Wells' quest to prove that, at age 43, he still has what it takes to pitch in the Bigs -- namely an indefatigable left arm, plus pinpoint accuracy and control.

And Wells didn't disappoint. In 4 1/3 innings, Wells gave up five hits, and only one run. Wells customary accuracy was once again on display, as he didn't issue a single walk. Forty one of his fifty three pitches were strikes, an impressive 77% ratio.

But then disaster struck, or more namely a line drive off the bat of Travis Lee in the fifth inning, and Wells was down for the count. Initial reports are that the injury is just a deep bone bruise to is surgically repaired right knee, and it may not be career threatening. We'll know more in the coming days, but let's hope for the best. Boomer looked impressive in his short stint on the mound at Fenway.

Even if he is able to return, whether or not Wells is the long-term solution for the remainder of the 2006 season is entirely unknown. His worn knee could still fail him, and the team, at any time.

There's always the possibility, or fantasy, of Roger Clemens coming back to Fenway as a Red Sox. But how old and stale has that story become? Clemens has been perpetually set to retire since 2003, and he still can't seem to make up his mind. And it should be noted that although he had great success in the NL, his last five seasons in the AL (all with the Yankees) resulted in an ERA of 4.01. That's certainly better than Wakefield and Clement, but Clemens will also be 44 in August. Simply put, he'll never again be the pitcher he once was, and to expect as much is to welcome disappointment. The legendary pitcher he was in the 80's and 90's is no longer. Clemens will be a shadow of his former self if he returns to the AL once again, even if he pitches for only half a season. That's not to say that Clemens wouldn't help the Sox, but there may be better alternatives available.

It would be nice to see the Sox to make a run at Dontrelle Willis. The D-Train would be a fine addition to the Sox staff, and would anchor the rotation for the next decade. But to get him they'd need to part with highly touted prospect Jon Lester.

In nine starts at Pawtucket this season, Lester is 3-4 with a 3.13 ERA. In 37 innings, he's given up just 33 hits and 13 earned runs. If that's not impressive enough, Lester has 37 K's and only 17 walks. Lefthanders are hitting just .120 (3 for 25) against him, righthanders .254 (30 for 118), and 60% of his pitches have been strikes. Impressive numbers. His losing record is clearly deceiving. Since he's averaging more than one strikeout, and less than one hit, per inning, it's evident that Lester isn't getting much run support. We could see him in the rotation before the year is out, if he's not traded for Willis.

Willis is the only kind of player the club could conceivably move Lester for. But why would the Sox trade one 22-year-old lefty for another 24-year-old lefty? It's simple. One is already a proven Big League commodity, while the other simply possesses potential. There are plenty of "can't miss" kids in Triple A who miss in the Majors. Does anyone remember Brain Rose? How about Carl Pavano? Other than one good season, his career has been marked by nothing but hype, and injuries.

So, the Sox will have to maintain their hot bats, and their remarkable defense. We'll wish the best for David Wells, meanwhile hoping that Clemens shows up in a Sox jersey or, even better, that the Sox can ride the D-Train to World Series glory.

Barring any of that, Jon Lester may be able to -- may have to -- make a meaningful contribution before the year is over, much like Jonathan Papelbon did last year. But putting such outsized expectations on a rookie is both unfair and unrealistic.

The more likely scenario is that the Sox will need to go out and make a trade for a veteran pitcher -- likely a free agent -- at the trade deadline, just like every other contender will be attempting to do.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

WAS THAT THE MEASURE OF A CHAMPION?

It's hard to imagine that Ricky Hatton won over very many American fans in his pursuit of the WBA welterweight crown against Luis Collazo on Saturday night at the "new" Garden. (I refuse to call it by any of its other corporate names).

Hatton looked more like a wild street brawler than a highly trained professional boxer. There was very little skill on display during his quest for Collazo's title. The Manchester, U.K. native looked sloppy and overanxious as he threw wide, looping punches that left him wide open and quite vulnerable. A better boxer -- such as Oscar De La Hoya or Floyd Mayweather Jr. -- would have picked him apart. Hatton's defense -- or what passed for it -- looked awful. If we're grading on aggressiveness, determination and a dogged pursuit of one's opponent, then he looked, well... aggressive, determined, and dogged. His opponent, Collazo, hardly gave a better account of himself. Mostly he looked confused and at times exasperated.

Both fighters were guilty of far too much holding. The bout looked more like a wrestling match than a contest between two skilled, world-class boxers. There was an outrageous amount of hugging going on, to the point that it appeared the pair were slow dancing. Ultimately, it was a very disappointing match up. Quite deservedly, we who watched had a right to expect more from a championship fight, and the combatants who participated.

Hatton was very lucky to have been granted a decision, and his record remains unblemished. Though he can now call himself a champion, what amounted to a horribly disappointing, and amateur looking, contest should have been declared a draw.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Sunday, May 14, 2006

THE REPLACEMENTS

After becoming World Series champions in 2004, the Red Sox decided to tinker with what got them there and replaced starting pitchers Derek Lowe and Pedro Martínez with David Wells and Matt Clement.

Those decisions seem highly dubious, in retrospect.

Despite his 12-15 record last year, the 32-year-old Lowe made a career-high 35 starts and pitched 222 innings for the Dodgers, finishing the year with a respectable 3.61 ERA.

And though his 1-2 record might indicate otherwise, Lowe has pitched very well again this season, as evidenced by his 2.98 ERA. In his last seven starts, Lowe hasn't allowed more than two earned runs, and in his last five starts has a 1.57 ERA.

Martinez, the 34-year-old former Cy Young winner, is now 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA. In 53.2 innings, he's given up just 30 hits while striking out 62 and walking just 16.

Last season, he went 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA. Despite concerns about his overworked shoulder, Pedro made 31 starts and pitched 217 innings. And as usual, he struck out over 200 batters yet again. Pedro proved himself durable, and can still fool hitters with a variety of pitches other than just his fastball.

Meanwhile, the 31-year-old Clement is 3-3 with an unimpressive 5.58 ERA. In 40 innings he's surrendered 45 hits with 29 strike outs and 21 walks.

Last season, after an encouraging start, Clement nosed dived following the All Star break and finished the year at 13-6 with a 4.57 ERA. The record was deceiving, however. Clement went 9-1 before the break and 4-5 after.

Clement received an average of 6.88 runs of support per 9 innings, 3rd-highest in all of baseball behind teammate David Wells (7.97) and the Rangers' Chris Young (7.32). Clement benefited from the fact that the Red Sox scored 146 runs when he pitched, the 5th-highest total in baseball.

And after posting an impressive, 15-7 record (albeit with the aid of the best run support in baseball), Wells is now on the DL with a bum knee, an 0-1 record, and a frightening 15.75 ERA, after just one start. Wells was even shelled against minor league hitters in his single rehab start following spring training.

The 43-year-old lefty has a continuing weight problem, and seems allergic to exercise. Training and conditioning are clearly not part of his off season repertoire. The team kindly lists him at 250 pounds, a very conservative report to be sure. The 6'3" Wells is probably more like 275, if we're being honest. Put it this way, Jonathan Papelbon is listed at 6'4", 230. Does anyone really believe that Wells is only 20 pounds heavier? The reason this is an issue is because Wells knee can't support his girth, and as a result, it may have ended his career. Though his rubber arm likely had more than enough good innings still left in it, Wells right knee may never again allow him to pitch effectively at the Major League level.

So the Sox are left hoping that Roger Clemens will come to their rescue, or perhaps even Dontrelle Willis, in a trade deadline deal.

But the young lefthander Willis, who won 22 games last season, has a 9.97 ERA (24 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings) in his last four starts, all losses. Willis hasn't looked good since the start of the season, continuing a trend that began during the World Baseball Classic.

Sure, it's easy to to be a Monday morning quarterback, but the Sox management are the professionals who get paid professional money to foresee these types of things before they come to pass. From where the Sox stand today, Clement and Wells for Pedro and Lowe seems to be an utterly failed experiment.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Thursday, May 04, 2006

CLEMENS' NEW MOTIVATION

On Thursday night, Randy Johnson became just the third pitcher to reach the 4,400-strikeout plateau when he fanned the Devil Rays Nick Green in the fourth inning. The 5-2 Johnson trails only Nolan Ryan (5,714) and Roger Clemens (4,502) on the career list.

Knowing just how competitive Clemens is -- and how important his stats are to him in relation to his place in baseball history -- Johnson's achievement may be all the incentive he needs to return for yet another go around. If Clemens decides not to play, Johnson will pass him and move into second place before this season is over.

It's hard to imagine Clemens letting the 42-year-old Johnson surpass him, knowing that the Yankee lefty is nearing the finish line in his career as well. Clemens surely thinks he is the better pitcher of the two -- even now, at this late stage of their careers.

If a 37 or 38-year-old pitcher was closing in on him, one who appeared to have at least a few good years still in reserve, then Clemens would likely accept the inevitable with a begrudging acceptance that everyone gets old and eventually has to retire. But there's no way he's going down to one of his peers -- certainly not another 40-something.

So bet on Clemens returning. The only question now is, to which team?

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

ALL'S WELL THAT ENDS WELLS

A week ago, Sox left-hander David Wells sounded like a defeated man who was ready to hang 'em up and call it a career. But the Boomer has suddenly had a change of heart.

Wells, believes he may have turned the corner while rehabbing his surgically repaired right knee. The rotund lefty said he had good day while throwing on Tuesday, and there haven't been many of those since he went on the DL on April 15. Perhaps the latest round of Synvisc joint lubricating shots did the trick.

"I'm getting a lot better," Wells said. "It's been two days in a row and I've thrown all my pitches off flat ground and I wasn't able to do that after the Toronto series. To do that and feel nothing, that's pretty positive for me."

But could the Synvisc alone be responsible for this renewed motivation? Or could it be the incentive-laden contract that could pay him as much as $8 million this season, based on appearances? Wells is suddenly raring to go, and he doesn't want to waste time in Pawtuckett with a silly tune up.

Wells said he plans to throw a side session next, and if his knee responds well. "Then, go to a start. Throw me out to the wolves. I've done that before, I don't mind it. Why waste a start?"

What would be a waste is putting an ill-prepared, out of shape pitcher on the mound to face big league pitching -- especially when it went so miserably last time (4 2/3 innings, 10 hits and 7 ER in an embarrassing loss to the Blue Jays).

Wells has been grossly overconfident since spring training, when he asserted he was ready to immediately join the rotation -- even though he'd had limited preparation due to his injury and rehab. But after being forced to accept a tune up start he felt was below him, he proceeded to get shelled by AAA hitters (7 runs and 6 hits in 5 innings) last month.

The Sox should've seen this coming during the winter and traded Wells for a prospect -- even a bag of balls -- when there was some semblance of a market for him. Anything would've been better than this. Though he may say otherwise, Wells hasn't shown any genuine evidence that his desire to pitch is motivated by anything other than money. And even that hasn't been particularly motivating. Wells has consistently shown lack of commitment to training and conditioning and doesn't even begin to resemble a top-flight professional athlete. That's very unfortunate, and it's what separates him from a contemporary like Roger Clemens who, at the same age, continues to perform remarkably due to his dedication and commitment.

Wells would rather sit home, drink beer, and count his millions.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

COULD GONZO BE A GONER?

There are rumblings that the Red Sox are growing impatient with shortstop Alex Gonzalez's offensive ineptitude.

The Sox committed to a one-year deal with Gonzalez due to his defensive prowess, knowing that his career .243 average could be a liability at the plate. But in his first month with the Red Sox, Gonzalez hit just .186 with no homers and four RBIs. His paltry .275 on-base percentage has virtually assured an automatic out in each plate appearance. That weak presence in the order can be a rally killer, and only exacerbates the Sox disturbing trend of leaving men on base this year.

Reports have surfaced that indicate the Sox may engage in trade talks with the Dodgers for Cesar Izturis as soon as he comes off the disabled list. The 26-year-old Izturis, an All-Star last year, saw his season cut short when he was diagnosed with degenerative arthritis in his right elbow, which required season-ending Tommy John surgery. In 2004, Izturis earned his first Gold Glove award, so defensively he would be on par with Gonzalez. Izturis and Alex Cora were a fantastic double play combo for the Dodgers before Cora left as a free agent.

Aside from the degenerative elbow condition, the other concern is Izturis's career .261 average and .295 OBP. If the Sox are looking for more offense, it would seem they should look elsewhere. However, Izturis was on a torrid pace before getting hurt last season. The switch-hitter is still young and appeared to be developing offensively, having compiled 75 hits in just the first two months of the season. Showing signs of maturing into a fine contact hitter, Izturis had missed on just 8.8% of his swings at the time of his injury.

In the meantime, the club is concerned enough about Gonzalez's offensive shortcomings that he is in jeopardy of losing his starting job to Cora. The question is, what difference would it make? The two players are essentially the same; great defense, no offense. Why go from one .240 career hitter to another?

While Sox manager Terry Francona is publicly backing Gonzalez right now, the player's manager has always been loyal his guys. But Francona backed Josh Bard as well, and we all know how that turned out.

So whether it's Izturis or someone else, unless Gonzalez is a tiger who can change his stripes, the Sox may soon be in the market for a more potent offensive replacement to fill out the bottom of the order. After going through four starting shortstops in just two years, the Sox find themselves in yet another uncertain situation.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Saturday, April 29, 2006

BOGUS BONDS AND THE SPLENDID SPLINTER


As the "performance enhanced" Barry Barry Bonds encroaches on the immortal Babe Ruth for second place on baseball's all-time home run list, I've been reflecting on Ted Williams -- the "greatest hitter who ever lived."

While walking around the exterior of Fenway Park last week, I came upon the statue of "Teddy Ballgame" and paused to admire it. The plaque at the base of the statue noted that Williams was a decorated war hero who had missed five full seasons due to service in two different wars -- WWII and Korea.

The greatest hitter who ever lived compiled extraordinary numbers -- such as 521 career homers -- while missing five seasons during his storied career. That's truly remarkable. At the time, only one player - Ruth - had surpassed the 700 home run mark. And upon refection, it seems that Williams -- if not for the missed time -- would've joined him in that pantheon.

In 1942, during the prime of his career, Williams voluntarily enlisted in the Navy reserve and was called to active duty that November. He was only a year removed from his now legendary .406 season. When his call to duty was over, Williams had missed three consecutive seasons as he studied and learned how to fly.

Though he was never called into active combat, he served honorably and was discharged in December of 1945. Returning to the Red Sox for the 1946 season, he picked up right where he left off. Despite the lengthy absence, Williams hit .342 and belted 38 homers. However, just six years later, the military beckoned once again.

Williams was called from the inactive reserves in 1952 to fight in the Korean War. As a result, he missed that season as well. Arriving in Korea in February 1953, Williams served as a member of the first Marine Air Wing and fought in combat. He was hit on several occasions and managed to escape death each time. Williams flew a total of 39 missions in Korea, losing part of his hearing in the process.

Williams didn't return to baseball again until the end of the 1953 season, playing in just 37 games. Though he didn't qualify for the batting title due to his limited plate appearances, he still managed to hit .407 in limited action.

And injuries also took their toll on the "Splendid Splinter," lessening the playing time of this legendary player.

Williams broke his elbow during the 1950 All-Star Game when he ran into the wall at Comiskey Park. Despite the injury, he didn't say a word to anybody and proceeded to get a base hit in his very next at-bat. In only 89 games of limited action that abbreviated season, Williams still managed to swat 28 homers and drive in 97 runs.

In 1954, Williams broke his collarbone early in Spring Training and missed a third of the season. He still finished with 29 homers and a .345 average.

In his final season, 1960, the 41-year-old Williams hit .316 with 29 homers and 72 RBIs, homering in his final at-bat in Fenway. Even at that advanced age, there was still pop in his bat.

Williams' enormous potential was immediately evident upon arrival for his rookie season in 1939. The "Kid" batted .327 with 31 home runs and 145 runs driven in. Offensively, it was the greatest rookie season in the history of the game.

That began an extraordinary run in which Williams played in 18 All-Star Games, won baseball's elite Triple Crown twice (1942 and 1947) and was named the American League MVP twice (1946 and 1949). Consider this; Williams won the Triple Crown in '42 without being named MVP. Go figure. And in '47, he lost out on the MVP by a single vote -- a year in which a disgruntled Boston writer left him of the ballot.

Williams finished his career with a .344 lifetime batting average, hitting over .300 in every season except 1959, when he was 40-years-old. And, incredibly, Williams collected more RBI's than games played (1949).

All of that got me thinking. Williams hit 521 career homers despite missing all, or parts, of eight different seasons. In particular, what would he have done if he'd played those five seasons instead of fighting for his country?

Williams career extended from 1939 to 1960 -- a 22-year span. In that time, he won six batting titles (between the ages of 23-40), led the American League in on-base percentage a record twelve times, runs scored six times, home runs and RBIs four times, walks eight times, and slugging percentage seven times. However, due to his military commitments, Williams only played 17 seasons. MLB counts the two years he fought in Korea even though he played in only 6 and 37 games, respectively. And, largely due to injury, Williams missed roughly a third of three additional seasons. That leaves us to wonder what he would have done if not robbed of those eight critical years during the prime of his career?

For comparison's sake, Carl Yastrzemski played 23 season for the Sox, yet had over 4,000 more at-bats than Williams. In fact, in spite of his tremendous accomplishments as a hitter, Williams is only fourth on the Red Sox career at-bats list. And, of all 20 Major Leaguers with at least 500 career homers, only one - Mark McGwire - has fewer at bats than Williams. In fact, Ken Griffey Jr. is the only other player besides Williams and McGwire to accomplish the feat with fewer than 8000 at-bats. In contrast, Bonds has already amassed over 9000 career at-bats, and he's still accumulating them every day.

Think of it this way; in the 17 years that Williams played, he averaged 31 home runs per season. Multiply that by the five years he missed to active duty, and you can tack on an additional 155 home runs to his career total of 521. That would make 676 home runs. That would have placed him second to Ruth through 1974, when Hank Aaron eclipsed Ruth's mark.

Now of course this is just theoretical, but it's not much of a leap. After all, Williams hit 38 homers at the age of 39. Even if we exclude the injury years, had Williams averaged 36 homers per year during those lost war years -- not unimaginable since he averaged 36 homers in the two years preceding and following WWII -- he would have joined Ruth as the only other member of the "700 Club." Since that time, only Aaron and Bonds have joined the esteemed group.

Most importantly, Williams' marks were accomplished without the aid of performance enhancing drugs. Williams and his numbers were clean. He wasn't a cheater, unlike Bonds. Bonds' 700 home runs are phony, trumped up, drug-enhanced and simply bogus.

Bonds and Williams have little in common. Unlike Bonds, Williams wasn't a selfish player. Bonds is all about Bonds. However, Williams was the first Hall of Famer to call for the inclusion of Negro Leagues stars in Cooperstown.

Ted Williams repeatedly proved that he was more than just a baseball player -- he was a patriot. As his former Red Sox teammate Mickey McDermott put it, "He was the man John Wayne wanted to be."

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

OUT OF ORDER

At this point, though it's still early in this campaign, the Red Sox pitching appears to have been vastly overrated at the start of the season. They have two very good starters (Schilling and Beckett), two mediocre starters (Wakefield and Clement), and no fifth starter. Perhaps that role will be fulfilled by Lenny DiNardo, or Mike Ginter, or Abe Alvarez. Your guess is as good as anyone's. Who needs Bronson Arroyo anyway?

This team lacks pitching depth and offense - not a good combo. On two separate occasions Friday night, the Sox left the bases loaded and failed to score. Continuing a disturbing trend this season, the Red Sox left 14 men on base and were 2-for-19 with runners in scoring position. The club has the regrettable distinction of leading the AL with over 200 men left on base this season.

Over the last 12 games the team is hitting .245, and is now 10th in the American League with a .258 overall average.

The Sox were outscored 27-6 in their three straight losses and have now dropped six of their last eight games. They may not be as good as last year's team, which wasn't good enough when it counted -- in the playoffs.

Over the course of 6 innings, Matt Clement surrendered 5 runs (4 earned) on five hits, gave up six walks, and struck out four.

Most of the damage was done early and Clement rallied to allow just one hit -- a single to Toby Hall in the fifth -- over his final two innings.

But Clement is now 2-2 with 6.14 ERA, and batters are hitting .308 against him.

In his five starts, Clement has yielded 15 walks and 37 hits, resulting in 20 earned runs. So far, he's given up more hits, runs and walks than any other Red Sox pitcher. His walks and hits per inning (WHIP) is 1.77 -- 50th in the AL.

Manager Terry Francona claimed Clement's poor performance was the result of "scuffling with his asthma."

He'd better get an inhaler.

The signs aren't good. Clement has never been a great pitcher and the Red Sox overpaid him with the three-year, $26 million contract they gave him last year. He'd never done anything to warrant such a deal, and he is continuing to live up to his average ability.

The Sox have no legitimate number three starter. Clement and Wakefield are interchangeable at four and five. But again, there is no reliable fifth starter at the moment, so they are both pitching out of order and in roles that don't suit them well. Unless Ginter or Alvarez is a hidden gem, providing an unexpected solution, the Sox better hope that Roger Clemens decides to make a return engagement in Boston. Right now, they can use all the help they can get.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Thursday, April 27, 2006

IN THE WAKE OF THE KNUCKLE BALL

It was another tough start for Tim Wakefield last night. The first two Cleveland batters he faced reached base, and the third, Jhonny Peralta, scorched a three run homer into the left field seats for an early lead.

Through 5 2/3 innings, Wakefield only surrendered five hits, but his erratic knuckler resulted in four walks, and gave catcher Josh Bard fits.

Bard "allowed" four more passed balls last night, and now has ten on the season. That's more than his first four seasons combined. Two of those "passed balls" resulted in runs scored. A passed ball credited to Bard's could just as easily be viewed as a wild pitch by Wakefield. Wakefield leads all active Major League pitchers in passed balls. And it's no wonder; the knuckle ball is clearly the most difficult pitch to handle. When one of those floaters sails to the backstop, it's more often Wakefield's fault than the catcher's. Attempting to catch Wakefield's knuckle ball is a thankless task -- one so difficult that John Flaherty decided to retire after a single spring training game, rather than compete for the job and accept the frustration that comes with it.

With the loss, Wakefield is now 1-4 with a 3.90 ERA. Some would argue that the lack of run support by the offense has been his Achilles heel. After all, In his first two losses, against Texas and Seattle, the offense afforded him no runs. In his next two losses, they spotted him just a single run in each game. His only victory this season came against Baltimore, on a night when his teammates staked him a four run cushion. Wakefield's losses have been by scores of 10-4, 3-0, 5-1, and 7-1. Yes, there has been a lack of run support, but the numbers indicate that there's also been a lack of pitching as well. In those four games, the Sox have given up a total of 25 runs. That's ridiculous. That means the offense would have to average more than six runs a game to win. Not likely with this year's squad.

There's a reasonable argument that Wakefield has been placed too high in the pitching rotation at number two, and is facing pitchers above his caliber. If he moved down to, perhaps, four or five, he'd be facing weaker pitchers who would likely give up more runs. That would keep him in games. The only way Wakefield is going to win in the number two spot is if he can manage to surrender just one or two runs each outing. That isn't likely.

Wakefield has been a good soldier for the Red Sox over the course of his 12 years in Boston. He's been an exemplary representative of the organization both on and off the field. He never gets into trouble, and he doesn't complain or mouth off to the media, the fans, the management, or his teammates. He's selflessly done whatever has been asked of him, from starting, pitching middle relief, and even closing games.

The veteran righty is second on the club's all-time wins list, behind Roger Clemens and Cy Young -- who are tied for first. He's also second in games, and third in strike outs. But here's the rub; he's also first in losses, first in home runs allowed (by a long shot), and has yielded more runs and earned runs than any other pitcher in team history (again, by a long shot). And by the end of this season, he will be the club's all-time leader in walks allowed.

For all his accomplishments, Wakefield's career has been marked by mediocrity on the mound, and his place in the club's record books is a measure of his longevity, not his greatness. That's not a knock on Wakefield. That's just the truth.

Great pitchers are hard to come by, and a number two pitcher should be great - like, perhaps, Josh Beckett. This year, in that spot, Wakefield has been given the unenviable responsibility of going up against pitchers who are simply better than him, and he and the team are suffering for it. It's been just as thankless a task for him as catching the knuckle ball has been for poor Josh Bard.

Trading Bronson Arroyo now appears to be a critical mistake. Wouldn't he be a fantastic number three starter behind Beckett? David Wells is likely done, the victim of his own compulsive eating habits and lack of serious conditioning, as much as anything else. His nearly 43-year-old knees can no longer support his enormous girth. And Lenny Dinardo, for all of his well-intentioned efforts, is clearly in over his head. Maybe Abe Alvarez can dutifully fill out the final spot in the rotation while the Sox hope and pray they can persuade Roger Clemens to come back to Boston for one more stab at World Series glory.

Maybe then Tim Wakefield could assume a more fitting role as the fourth or fifth starter - against appropriate competition. And perhaps, with a little more time and practice by Bard, the knuckle ball will frustrate opposing hitters more than it has frustrated him in the early part of this season. If not, the Sox will seek an alternative catcher, but the passed balls and wild pitches will inevitably continue. Expect it.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Sunday, April 16, 2006

RIDING THE HORSES

It's becoming a habit. The Red Sox won yet another one-run ballgame today, defeating the Mariners 3-2 behind another strong performance from Josh Beckett. That too has become habitual.

Beckett and veteran Curt Schilling have paired to become an unstoppable force -- thus far at least.

Sport illustrated calls the two former World Series MVPs the top pitching combo in all of baseball.

Beckett's line today; 7 innings, 6 hits, 2 runs (1 earned), 1 walk, and 5 strike outs.

Beckett leads the Majors with a 1.29 ERA this season. With a career best 3-0 start, Beckett has surrendered only 16 hits in 21 innings pitched, for a grand total of three earned runs. Beckett's 12 strike outs are double the six walks he's allowed.

Schilling, also 3-0, sports a nearly impressive 1.64 ERA. Schilling has given up only 11 hits in 22 innings, resulting in 4 earned runs. The big righty has frustrated hitters by issuing only three walks and 16 strike outs.

The Sox entered spring training with seven starters and questions about who would crack the rotation, who'd go to the pen and who would be dealt. Just two weeks into the 2006 campaign, Jonathan Papelbon has become the indispensable closer, Bronson Arroyo was dealt, and David Wells' damaged knee landed him on the DL. As the saying goes, you can never have enough pitching.

At this point, it's hard to know if Wells will ever return, and if he does, if he'll be effective. At 43 (next month) and quite overweight, Wells' knees have the tremendous burden of supporting the rest of him. And no matter how you slice it, by historical standards, Wells is simply old for a pitcher. If Keith Foulke continues to progress, that could allow the Sox to move Papelbon into the rotation to fill Wells' spot.

Sure, there will be happy talk about the possibility of Roger Clemens' return to Boston, riding in on his white horse to pitch the team back to the World Series. But at this point, that's all just speculation. And Clemens, like Wells, is old. Any expectations of him may be too great.

If the Red Sox hope to return to the promised land that is a World Series championship, they will have to ride their impressive, and quite capable, duo of Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett - the number one combo in all of baseball.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

DAMON'S RUNNING HIS MOUTH AGAIN

Even though Torii Hunter is under contract to the Twins for this season, and Gary Sheffield to the Yankees, that hasn't stopped Johnny Damon from plotting the future of both players. Both are free agents after this year, and Damon has plans for each of them.

Damon says he's willing to move to right field if the Yankees acquire Hunter, who has talked openly about playing for the Yankees if the Twins do not show a commitment to winning beyond this season.

I wonder what Damon's teammate, Sheffield, thinks about Johnny's plans? It can't be good for team chemistry and accord when one outfielder is actively trying to supplant another.

Says Damon, "I know how good Torii Hunter is, and he would be a good fit. We still have Gary Sheffield (in right field), which Gary may end up moving to the DH spot. I'm sure there's a lot that we can do. Whatever makes the team better."

Asked if he would be willing to switch positions again to make way for Hunter, Damon spoke freely before realizing that he isn't the Yankees GM.

"I had to do it for Carlos Beltran to make his job easier in the big leagues, and he seemed to do pretty good," Damon said. "Yeah, it doesn't matter to me. Whatever needs to be done. It's all about going out there and trying to win. (Hunter is) definitely one of the game's best players, but I'll leave that up to (Yankees general manager) Brian Cashman. I can't be running my mouth."

I bet Gary Sheffield would tell him the same thing.

The Yankees and their fans may already be learning what the Red Sox and their fans have known for the past few years. Johnny loves a microphone and especially a camera, and he never misses an opportunity to share his profound wisdom. Like a moth to a flame he is drawn, burned at times by his own words.

Saturday, April 15, 2006

WHERE'S THE OFFENSE GONE?

The Sox were shut out at Fenway today by a score of 3-0, behind the solid pitching of Joel Piniero. However, they weren't without their opportunities. Nine Sox runners were left on base today, and a total of twenty over the last two games.

It's a problem that's plagued the Sox early this season. Frustratingly, 101 Sox runners have been left on base -- most in the AL, and second to only the Dodgers.

After leading the majors in runs each of the past three seasons, the Sox have scored four or less seven times in 11 games. Prior to today's shutout, they were 17th in runs scored, and 23rd in home runs. In fact, Wily Mo Pena's double was the only extra base hit the anemic Sox offense could muster. The Sox loaded the bases with no outs in the third and still failed to score.

Manny Ramirez has inexplicably been without an extra-base hit in the eleven games this year. And believe it or not, Manny leads the Sox with 15 strike outs this year - nearly twice as many as the next closest player. He has just two hits in his last 22 at bats, resulting in a paltry .205 average.

Sox catcher Josh Bard was charged with two passed balls, though it's often tough to distinguish where a wild pitch ends and a passed ball begins. The knuckleball is the toughest pitch for any catcher to handle, and as such, the number of wild pitches and knuckleballs in any Wakefield start is invariably high. Unfortunately for Bard, he's going to take the blame for a lot of passed balls that wouldn't get by him if he was catching another pitcher. You could call it a thankless job, Should anyone need more evidence of just how tough that job is, consider this; after trying to catch Wakefield just once during spring training, John Flaherty chose to retire rather than compete for the job.

Aside from the third inning -- when the Mariners scored all their runs with the aid of those two passed balls -- Wakefield pitched well, giving up nine hits and no walks with six strikeouts on the way to his 29th complete game.

The Sox were billed as a team built on pitching and defense to start this season, and so far they've delivered on that promise. Three of their seven victories have come by a 2-1 score. That's encouraging. Last year the Sox were 3-22 when they scored fewer than three runs. But they can't count on wining games by those slim margins all year. The offense has to wake up and do its part.

Josh Beckett leads the majors with a 1.29 ERA. So he's clearly been doing his part and can be expected to deliver more of the same against the Mariners tomorrow. But it's time for the offense to step up and give him some help. He's earned it.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

"THEY TRADED THE WRONG GUY"

When the Red Sox traded Bronson Arroyo last month, David Wells quipped, "They traded the wrong guy."

And after the way Wells pitched in his first game of the season tonight, many of us are inclined to agree with him. Making it through just 4 2/3 innings, Wells surrendered 10 hits and 7 earned runs in an embarrassing loss to the Blue jays. Wells gave up three homers in his ghastly outing, and the fans let him hear their disapproval loud and clear. And there were plenty of them to be heard. Fenway's new capacity allowed for 36,378 fans - the biggest nighttime crowd in the park's history.

After hearing of his trade demand during the offseason - which was only rescinded during spring training - many Sox fans were none too pleased with Boomer before the game even started, and his poor performance only made things worse.

The resulting 8-4 loss snapped the Sox five-game winning streak, and a chance to match the team's best start in 86 years.

The were bad omens when Wells opened the season with a Minor League rehab start, and proceeded to get shelled. Tonight he looked like he could use a few more of those tune-ups before he's ready or prime time.

Wells turns 43 next month, and this appearance will raise some eyebrows and cause some to wonder if Boomer has finally gotten a little too long in the tooth. Though it may be too soon to throw up the white flag, it's worth noting that in ten years Bronson arroyo will still be three years younger than Wells is now. Yeah. It puts things in perspective.

Aside from the fact that Wells is a loud mouth with a long history of putting his foot in that mouth, he's never been a conditioning devotee and is returning from off season knee surgery. If he continues to turn in efforts like this one tonight, things will get ugly really fast for him with the Fenway faithful. It's difficult to argue that someone approaching 43 got old overnight. By baseball standards, Wells got old a few years ago but has successfully eluded Father Time - at least until now.

Meanwhile, back in Cincinnati, Arroyo improved to 2-0, throwing seven scoreless innings against the Cubs yesterday. The 29-year-old allowed six hits -- all singles -- and struck out four while not walking a batter for his second-straight start. Who needs a guy like that in the rotation?

It's easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, but I always maintained that Arroyo was an ideal number four of five starter, because he was durable, reliable, had big-game experience, and always wanted the ball. Who wouldn't want a pitcher under the age of thirty with those qualities? Let's just hope we don't end up wishing that the Sox had traded Wells - who actually demanded a trade - instead of a pitcher who desperately wanted to stay in Boston. Before too long, we could all be left asking, why?

Wells takes his next turn against the Mariners on Marathon Monday. Hopefully, being the seasoned veteran that he is, Wells will be able to put this dismal performance out of his mind and get himself back on track. The big lefty has always had a rubber arm, and perhaps it's too soon to assume the worst. Wells may have just had an off night, and could rebound nicely. It's a tough call. He doesn't look ready for the big leagues right now. But we'll have to wait and see and, in the mean time, hope for the best. Specifically, that the Red Sox didn't trade the wrong guy.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

THE BEAT GOES ON

The Red Sox continued their winning ways this afternoon at Fenway's home opener. The Sox latest victory extended their winning streak to five games and a 6-1 record - their best start since 1999.

After a shaky first inning - likely the result of Opening Day nerves in his first Fenway start for the Sox - Josh Beckett settled down and pitched like his usual self. Ultimately, Beckett pitched seven innings of three-hit, one-run baseball, leading the Sox to a 5-3 victory over the Blue Jays. Uncharacteristically, the three hits Beckett allowed were exceeded by four walks - three of which came in the first inning, resulting in the sole run he allowed.

But perhaps the most encouraging news was Mike Lowell's 4-for-4 performance, including three doubles in his home debut with the Red Sox. Of all the questions about the Sox offense entering this season, Lowell may have been the most curious, and perhaps the most important. We knew that Kevin Youkilis could hit, or least reach base, Mark Loretta is a career .300 hitter, and Coco Crisp is clearly a player on the rise. Odds are that Trot Nixon will rebound nicely, as long as he stays healthy. The biggest question mark, in my view, was Lowell.

Though coming off a career-worst season, Lowell was an All-Star for three consecutive seasons prior to 2005, a year in which he still won a Gold Glove. Though he struggled with a .236 average last season, he hit .293 the previous year and is a lifetime .272 hitter. And it now appears that he will indeed thrive in the friendly confines of Fenway - the epitome of a hitter's park. The Monster is only 310 feet from home, and Lowell should take ample advantage of it. There's a reason that Lowell has such a big contract -- he earned it. In 2003, he belted 32 homers and 105 RBI. He followed that up in '04 by hitting 27 homers and driving in 85 runs. In fact, Lowell averaged 25 homers and 95 RBI in the five seasons leading up to 2005.

What's most impressive about Lowell's stats in those years is that he was able to be so productive while playing in what is known as a pitcher's park - Dolphins Stadium. Fenway Park, not to mention the tutelage of hitting coach Ron "Papa Jack" Jackson, may already be aiding Lowell's return to form.

The only letdown was the disappointing play of Wily Mo Pena. Clearly a work in progress, the raw-looking Pena was 0-2, including a strike out. Red Sox fans had better get used to it. Hopefully Papa Jack, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz can help Pena polish his hitting skills, particularly his plate discipline and patience. Pena swings at far too many balls out of the strike zone, doing himself no favors. But worse, Pena let a Frank Catalanotto blast bounce out his glove and over the right field wall for a two run homer the eighth. Keith Foulke, who gave up two hits in the inning, was clearly disappointed and his 6.75 ERA will reflect it.

Jonathan Papelbon continued to dominate, retiring all three batters he faced for his fourth save in as many opportunities. In five appearances, Papelbon has allowed a grand total of two baserunners. He's been a dream come true for a bullpen that mostly conjured nightmares last season.

The sold out crowd of 35,491 was the largest to witness a Fenway Park opener. The old record of 35,343 had been established in 1969 against Baltimore. Despite the robust attendance, there was actually room for more. Believe it or not, some ticket holders actually failed to show up for the festivities. With its new capacity, Fenway will now hold 38,805, up from its previous 36,298.

Today also marked the Sox' 227th consecutive sellout, second only in league history to the 455-game run at Cleveland's Jacobs Field (1995-2001). Given the park's increased capacity, the Sox surely will set an attendance record this year for the seventh consecutive season.

And those record crowds are sure to see some great baseball this year. The 2006 Red Sox appear to be all they've been advertised to be. They are long on defense and pitching, and appear to still have enough offense to make them an AL force once again. Best of all, Manny hasn't even found his stroke yet and the club is winning despite this. But Mike Lowell looks poised to do his part, and his offensive production is sure to win fans, as well as the confidence of his teammates.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Monday, April 10, 2006

CONFIDENCE ON THE RISE

Tim Wakefield pitched like he had something to prove on Sunday. The knuckleballer seemed like a man with a chip on his shoulder from the moment he took the mound.

Coming into Sunday's game, Wakefield was the only starter who hadn't yet been victorious, and his loss to Texas had been a crushing defeat. He'd allowed seven runs in just 3 2/3 innings in that April 4 game. And he was clearly determined to make up for it against the Orioles.

Time after time, through six effective innings, Wakefield pitched his way out of jams, leaving Baltimore baserunners stranded, and often in scoring position. Boston's longest serving pitcher surrendered just one run, and it was unearned.

The end result; Wakefield's dominance helped the Red Sox earn their forth straight victory to start this season at 5-1.

And there was more good news. Keith Foulke got three outs in a row in the eighth, leading both he and Terry Francona to say it was the best performance he'd given in quite some time. If Foulke has confidence issues about being a closer, he may be an ideal - if not overpriced - set up man. At least for a while. One would like to believe that Foulke will regain the confidence that he had in 2004, and in the four previous seasons. During that span he was one of the most dominant closers in baseball with the White Sox and A's. Prior to last year, Foulke had an impressive 2.49 ERA over those previous five seasons, while compiling 185 saves. One encouraging sign on Sunday was that his fastball registered 88 mph for the first time in quite some time.

So heading into Tuesday's home opener, there are encouraging signs for the 2006 edition of the Boston Red Sox. Not the least of which is that 25-year-old Jonathan Papelbon earned his third save in three opportunities. And with that, hope springs eternal, and the Nation does rejoice.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

2 OUT OF 3 AIN'T BAD

Initiating the season by taking two out of three in Texas is an auspicious start indeed.

Trot Nixon's two run homer in the seventh provided all the offense the Sox needed (and it's a good thing because it was the only offense the team could muster), while Josh Beckett - seemingly on will alone - managed to surrender just a single run on a night when he clearly didn't have his best repertoire of pitches.

In the seventh, Beckett struck out the final batter he faced with a 95 mph fastball to wrap up his first start as a member of the Red Sox. It was a fine inauguration, and should serve as the perfect ice breaker for the 25-year-old when he pitches the Fenway opener next Tuesday.

Mike Timlin pitched a scoreless eighth, thanks to a fine defensive play.

Manny Ramirez, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek combined to throw out Mark Texiera at home on a Kevin Mench single to left. It was the critical defensive play of the evening, and prevented the Rangers from tying the game.

But perhaps the biggest surprise of the night was the emergence of Jonathan Papelbon from the bullpen in the ninth. Some might say there is a closer's controversy brewing in Boston, but it looks like the case may be closed. Papelbon pitched a 1-2-3 final frame - including two punch outs - to complete the Sox victory.

Rangers' starter Kameron Loe frustrated Sox hitters through the first five innings, surrendering only two singles to Mark Loretta. But then came Nixon's blast that put the Sox ahead for good. In all, Loe surrendered only six hits, but Nixon's was the crushing blow to his otherwise splendid night. In fact, Loe gave up fewer hits than Beckett (7) in the same number of innings, but Beckett had five k's and just one walk, keeping the Rangers' hitters off balance and off the scoreboard after the first. Beyond that initial frame, only one runner made it as far as third. In fact, of the seven hits that Beckett surrendered, three were infield singles.

The most upbeat scenario for the Red Sox is that a 25-year-old pitcher got the win, and another 25-year-old got the save - the first of his Major League career. That's something to celebrate, and something to look forward to for the rest of this season.

Friday, March 24, 2006

HEE-SEOP'S ABLE

The Red Sox claimed Hee-Seop Choi off waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers today, giving them another first base option as a back up to Kevin Youkilis. Given Mike Lowell's underwhelming performance this spring, it could portend the possibility of moving Youkilis back to third and platooning Choi with JT Snow.

Theo Epstein acknowledged as much by saying, "We have liked Choi for a long time and view this as an opportunity to acquire him when his value is down a bit. We like his power, his patience and his hands at first base. Choi provides depth for us at first base and in a way third base as well, considering Kevin Youkilis' ability to play both positions."

The 27-year-old Choi, a native of South Korea, has a career batting average of just .240, but also has a .349 on-base percentage. In 363 career games, he's hit 40 home runs and 120 RBI. Last year, in a career-high 133 games, he hit .253 with career highs of 81 hits and 42 RBI. He also had 15 homers for the second consecutive season, three coming in one game against Minnesota on June 12.

The Sox clearly don't need another first baseman. Snow is perhaps the finest defensive first baseman in the game today, and Youkilis has played exceptionally well there this spring. So the acquisition of Choi should be a signal to Lowell, who may feel the added pressure. Lowell has to prove that last year was merely an off season, and not the beginning of a downward spiral. It may just be a matter of time before the Sox have themselves a $9 million per year bench warmer in Lowell, with Youkilis returning to his natural position.

"We'll see how our roster shakes out," Epstein said. "But Choi does have minor-league options if we want him to get everyday at-bats in Triple-A for a period of time."

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

SAY HELLO TO WILY MO

The Red Sox had a problem that most teams would love; too much pitching. The question was, what to do with David Wells, Matt Clement or Bronson Arroyo. Wells' age and Clement's price made them prohibitive trade targets. That left Arroyo, and off he went to the Reds, ending a three year reign as one of the Red Sox primary heart throbs. No doubt, today many young female Sox fans are quite saddened. First johnny, now Bronson.

But Arroyo was more than just a heart throb. He was also quite versatile, showing the ability to start or come on in relief, he was dependable and not injury prone, and he was a kid who had big game experience and wanted the ball on any given day. Goodbye and good luck, Bronson. And thanks for your contributions. I'm sorry to see you go. Twenty-nine-year-old pitchers with rubber arms are hard to come by. Arroyo was a perfect four or five pitcher. But apparently the Sox thought they'd seen his best.

The Sox claimed Arroyo off waivers from Pittsburgh before the 2003 season. In 126 major-league games, he's 33-33 with a 4.59 ERA. Last year he was 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA in a career-high 205 1/3 innings.

In return, the Sox got themselves a project. It could be a boom, or a bust.

Wily Mo Pena said he was surprised by his trade to the Red Sox. But he'll be more disappointed than surprised if he finds himself on on the bench instead of in the field.

"I just want to be on a team and play every day," the young slugger said.

After having played no more than 110 games in any of his three previous seasons with the Reds, last year Pena finally got the chance to play left field regularly, batting .254 with 19 homers and 51 RBIs. But four years into his big league career, the unpolished Dominican has just 850 at bats, hitting .248 with 51 homers and 134 RBI.

And once again, at least for this season, he'll likely find himself in a limited role - unless Trot Nixon suffers another injury. The right-hitting Pena will be Boston's fourth outfielder, platooning with the left-hitting Nixon against left-handed pitchers. It's a role he should fill nicely, having fared well against lefties in the past. Last year he hit .291 against lefties, 57 points higher than against righties.

The Sox seem to have a long-term plan in mind with the acquisition of Pena. He may be the heir apparent in right field when Nixon becomes a free agent after this season. What's more, Pena can also play center. However, two scouts say that Pena has added 30 pounds in muscle, and as a result has regressed defensively and doesn't run as well as he used to.

There's also the distinct possibility that if Mike Lowell continues to struggle at the plate, proving that last season was more than just an aberration, Pena could see time at first with Kevin Youkilis moving back to his natural position at third.

The Sox see Pena as a very raw talent with an excellent arm to go with tremendous power potential. They plan to nurture and harness that talent in the coming years, believing that Boston offers just the right environment to continue Pena's development.

"The best thing that happened to him was coming over here," David Ortiz said. "He can learn from all of us."

Particularly, the Sox are hoping that Pena will learn plate discipline and pitch selection.

"This guy has some sick power," Ortiz said. "This guy has some crazy power, man." In fact, Ortiz said the 6-foot-3, 245 pound Pena is even stronger than him. "I've never seen a guy hit a ball harder than that guy... No, not even [me]."

The 19 homers he hit in just 99 games last year are a clear indication of that strength. And in 2004, Pena hit 26 homers in just 110 games. Theo Epstein described Pena as a "physical freak."

"We were talking about hitting a lot during the WBC," Ortiz said of Pena. "He wants to learn. He's a hard worker, good kid."

He'll need to be a hard worker. Apparently there is still a lot Pena needs to learn, and plenty of time to be made up for in his rushed development.

The Reds had to keep Pena in the majors the past three seasons, or place him on waivers, after he ran out of options in 2002 at the age of 20. He was just 17 when he signed a five-year major league contract with the New York Yankees in April 1999.

"He hasn't had time to develop" in the minors, Epstein said. "He's still a really dangerous threat against left-handed pitching."

Pena struck out 116 times in 311 at bats last season - an incredible 37% of the time - while walking only 20 times. But at just 24, the Sox think he has tremendous potential. They see him as a burgeoning middle-of-the-order power hitter with 40-homer potential. Red Sox fans can tolerate, perhaps even love, a true power hitter who strikes out a lot. But a guy who strikes out frequently minus the power (i.e. Mark Belhorn), they will not.

However, Ortiz seems unfazed. "Wily Mo is learning. He's going to be a great player."

"When I was 24 the ability that he has right now I didn't have it and I was in the big leagues, just like him," Ortiz said. "Wait until you see him. He looks like a football player. He's huge. He's got legs like nobody I've ever seen."

There will be lots of work to do. Pena has a meager .303 career on-base percentage. That clearly flies in the face of the Red Sox philosophy of the past few years.

"Pena strikes out on a rate basis more than anyone else in the big leagues," Epstein said. "There is precedent for those (type) players developing a little bit more discipline, increasing their walk rate and becoming better all around hitters as they adjust to the big leagues."

Pena is signed to a one-year, $1.25 million contract for 2006, and can't be a free agent until after the 2008 season. The Sox have him in their control for the next three years at a low cost.

Arroyo is just the latest member of the 2004 World Series Champions to have departed. Just seventeen months later, only nine players from that team remain.

With Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, and even Abe Alvarez in their system, the Sox felt comfortable about their pitching prosects in the coming years. But they have a decided lack of power within the system, which made this trade worth its risks.

As happy as he is about the arrival of Pena, Ortiz isn't happy about the departure of Arroyo, who was a very popular member of the Red Sox.

"I don't know, man. That's why I'm always going to look at this game as a business," Ortiz said. "The game is crazy, but that's how it goes."

It is a business, indeed. Players are rented, not owned. So don't fall in love with Wily Mo if he starts clearing the Monster with great regularity. Who knows how long he'll be around? Just ask Bronson arroyo. He never would've guessed.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Saturday, March 18, 2006

A SEASON IN THE BALANCE

When it comes to the weather in New England, like it not, just wait a while. It'll surely change. The same goes for the Red Sox. Every season sees the addition and subtraction of various players, some more talented and and more well-liked than others.

Professional baseball isn't always marked by loyalty. Just ask Mark Belhorn, Alan Embree, Kevin Millar or Bill Mueller. You can be a key part of a World Series Championship team and within a year, or less, be out of a job.

But it cuts both ways. Players often show just as little loyalty to their teams. Free agents usually follow the money, chasing the contract offer of the highest bidder, in search of what they believe will be greener pastures.

As such, this will be a critical year for the Red Sox longest-tenured position player.

Selected by the Sox in the first round of the 1993 draft, added to the roster in August 1995, and playing regularly since 1999, Trot Nixon has been with the Red Sox organization longer than any other player. But if he is to continue that distinction he will have to stay healthy, and be at his best, this season.

Nixon is coming into the final year of a 3-year, $19.5 million contract he signed in the winter of 2004. But the first two years didn't go nearly as well as he'd hoped. Because of various injuries in each of those seasons, Nixon saw his playing time, and his performance, decline considerably. Playing in just 48 games in 2004 and 124 in 2005, Nixon dealt with a herniated disc injury, a quadriceps problem, a strained oblique, and an injury to his left knee that required arthroscopic surgery this offseason. But, as usual, the right fielder kept his mouth shut about the injury and gamely played through it for much of last season.

While Nixon has proven himself a solid solid hitter, as evidenced by his 3-year OPSs of .974, .887, and .803, he's also shown an inability to consistently hit left-handed pitching. As a result, the Sox have found it necessary to platoon him with another outfielder who fares better against lefties. This has limited the club in some ways because it creates the need for a specific type of fourth outfielder.

There is no question that Nixon can hit. He had a terrific year in 2003 when he batted .306, smacked 28 homers, and knocked in 87 runs. However, last year those numbers fell considerably to .275, 13 HR, and 67 RBI. But what concerns the Sox the most is the dramatic drop off Nixon experienced during the second half of 2005. He started the year strongly, hitting .296 with a .377 on-base percentage and a .484 slugging percentage before the All-Star break. But his numbers fell to .241/.326/.386 after the break.

Determined to be in great shape and return to form, Nixon showed up at camp on February 1 - earlier than any other Sox position player. If he can once again become the player he was from 2001-2003, it would add some much needed pop to the middle of the Sox order, making him, and the team, quite happy. During that period, Nixon averaged 26 homers, 90 RBI, and a .370 on base percentage.

So far this spring, he's showing signs of his former self. Nixon is hitting .417 (10 for 24) with a homer and 6 RBIs. But the Sox still have their concerns. Manager Terry Francona has tried to avoid putting Nixon on a bus this spring, so as not to aggravate his cranky back. Asked Francona rhetorically, ''Is it preferential treatment? Yeah. He looks so good this spring. He looks healthy. He looks like he's having fun. He feels good. I don't want him limping around."

Realistically, this could be Nixon's final year in a Red Sox uniform - no matter how he plays. Under his present contract, Nixon earns $6.5 million per season, and if he returns to form will surely seek a raise under any new deal. But with a number of talented and inexpensive outfielders in their system, including Adam Stern, David Murphy, Brandon Moss and Jacoby Ellsbury, the Sox may choose to go younger, and cheaper, next season. And of course if Nixon is injured again, or otherwise performs like an aging player with his best years squarely behind him, the Sox probably won't even offer him a contract. Though he turns just 32 next month, Nixon has been around for so long that some fans might think he's older. And though he should still be in the prime of his career, he'll be playing for a contract and will have to prove it.

It's hard to imagine the original dirt dog not patrolling right field at Fenway, an area he negotiates with such great expertise, but it's a possibility that bears consideration. Red Sox fans have come to love and respect Nixon's rugged and determined style of play. He never leaves the field with a clean uniform. His no nonsense, blue collar ethic has been tailor made for Boston. But one way or the other, we may be seeing the last of Trot Nixon in a Red Sox uniform in 2006.

Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Thursday, March 02, 2006

GUESS WHO'S BACK? LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL!

After much speculation, and an offseason that included a trade demand and various trade proposals, Manny Ramirez finally reported to spring training in Fort Meyers. Whew. Glad that's over.

This offseason Manny continued being Manny, resulting in more of the strangeness and mystery that has become commonplace over the past five seasons. Of Manny's tenure in Boston, the best way to describe it would be, 'what a long, strange trip it's been.' Say what you will, but the man sure makes things interesting.

Truth be told, the Red Sox are better off with Manny in camp and in a Red Sox uniform. He is strange, odd, unpredictable - and a host of other adjectives would apply - but he is not a troublemaker or a clubhouse cancer. He is not a malcontent who puts himself above his team, and every time he takes the field he offers the Red Sox a better chance at winning.

So let's all be grateful that he's back, and hope that this latest episode is over. The issue of a trade may rasie it's ugly head yet again between now and the end of the 2008 season when his contract expires, but until then let's just hope that the marriage of Manny Ramirez and the Boston Red Sox is one of mutual benefit and understanding - if the latter is ever possible.

After telling friends and teammates that he found the environment in Boston suffocating, Manny now says "I ain't got no problems with Boston. I like the atmosphere. I know I'm one of the top guys in the game and there's a lot of people on my shoulders."

In a complete turnaround that testifies to his capriciousness and unpredictability, Manny told reporters yesterday, "I especially like the attention."

After revealing that he was in the best shape of his life due to his offseason conditioning program, he added: "I got a beautiful career going on and I'm not going to let little things like this mess [up] all the things that I accomplished because I think when I finish my career I'm going to be a special player."

Despite his penchant for not making sense, truer words could not be said. Manny is on the fast track to the Hall of Fame, and with just a couple more typical seasons, he'll be donning a Red Sox cap in Cooperstown about a decade from now.

Shortly after the new year, Manny let it be known that he'd apparently had a change of heart regarding his trade request. With some time to reflect during the offseason, somehow his perspective had changed.

"There will be no trade, I'm staying in Boston, where I'm familiar with the system and where I have a lot of friends, especially David Ortiz," Ramirez told ESPNdeportes.com while in Miami on personal business.

"I'm going to take things easy and focus on my career," he said.

Though he said the Sox may still try to trade him, he said he hopes that doesn't happen. "I also want to play for a contender, and I think with Boston I'm assured of that."

Of course what Manny says says and what Manny means may not be the same thing. It's hard to say if Manny even knows what he means, or what he wants. After all, as he noted, he's in a pretty good situation in Boston. Making $20 million a year, as a beloved figure on one of baseball's most consistently competitive teams, would be a dream come true for most big leaguers.

For Manny, who knows? Maybe he's matured somehow this offseason. Maybe we're in for more surprises. But for now we should just give him the benefit of the doubt and let him go out and play. That's what he does best.

Reporters look to athletes for great quotes, as if they were great writers, comics, philosophers or wisemen. That is expecting too much. Most of the time we get the same old stale, trite quotes. On those rare occasions when he actually talks to the media, Manny can occasionally say something hilarious, whether it makes sense or not. So let's just try to enjoy the amusement, not to mention the homers and the RBI.

Perhaps Curt Schilling put it best when being interviewed by Bill Simmons.

Simmons said, "My favorite "Manny being Manny" moment happened in the final game of the regular season -- he had just crushed a home run, the cameras caught you guys sitting next to one another in the dugout, he was talking excitedly about what pitch he had hit, and somewhere along the way, you just started staring at him in disbelief, as though he had just said something like, "I knew it was going to be a slider because I started craving a pork sandwich, and that always means a slider's coming!" And you just kept staring at him, and then he walked away to another part of the dugout, and you started shaking your head in shock like, "Wow, I will never, ever, ever figure that guy out." How many of those Manny encounters happen per season?

To which Schilling replied, "Three to four per day."

That, my friends, says it all.

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