Bobby Valentine Is Not The Reason For Red Sox Failure

John Henry released a statement this afernoon backing manager Bobby Valentine and saying the skipper's job was safe. Henry noted that, "Baseball managers often get too much credit and too much blame for what happens on the field."

Whether Valentine's job is safe after this season ends is open to much speculation and he may, in fact, be terminated in the fall. The Sox brass gave Valentine a brief window of opportunity when they handed him a two-year deal last winter, which wasn't a vote of confidence.

Perhaps Valentine won't see year-two in Boston, but the Red Sox failures this season cannot be laid at his feet.

Red Sox starters have a cumulative ERA of 4.78, 11th out of 14 AL clubs. Boston's top-three starters — Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester — have ERAs of 4.48, 4.54 and 5.36, respectively.

If you're looking for the reason the Red Sox have been a .500 ball club all season, look no further. Yet, there's more.

The feast or famine Red Sox have scored the third-most runs in the major leagues, more than the first-place Yankees. Yet, the Sox have been limited to two or fewer runs 29 times. That's not Bobby Valentine's fault.

A whole host of high-priced veterans that this team was counting on when the season began are all having off years at the same time. But that's not all.

Red Sox players have missed 1,119 games while on the disabled list. That's mind-boggling.

The Sox have set a team record by putting 23 players on the disabled list 27 times this season. The 23 players on the DL are the most in a single season by any team in the majors since 1987.

None of that is Bobby Valentine's fault either.

More than anything, the Red Sox really need a roster overhaul. However, they have a number of overpaid under-achievers bogging down their roster, which are always the hardest players to move.

John Lackey will be back in the rotation next season, in lieu of Aaron Cook. However, all four of the other current starters will almost certainly be back in 2013 as well. That's the same group that isn't getting it done this year.

The Sox appear to be handcuffed to Beckett, which is most unfortunate.

In his seven seasons in Boston, Beckett has produced an ERA under 4.00 just three times. And he has twice had an ERA over 5.00. This is the guy who was supposed to be the staff ace from the very beginning, and whom the Red Sox handed a four-year, $68 million extension before the 2010 season.

Beckett responded by turning in a career-worst 5.78 ERA that year.

Bobby Valentine did not give Josh Beckett that regrettable four-year extension.

Firing the manager would merely be an act of scapegoating. The Red Sox face far bigger, far more important personnel decisions and are saddled with some really bad, long-term contracts that will haunt them for years to come.

John Henry and Co. have a major PR problem on their hands. Fans just don't like this team of high-priced, under-performing veterans.

Ratings on NESN are down and ticket sales are dwindling. Maintaining this phony sellout streak has become a bad joke. Fans arrive late and leave early. Season ticket holders can't resell their seats online. Interest in this team is clearly declining.

If management can't fix the glaring problems it has with its on-field personnel, then perhaps they'll make a clumsy public charade of trying to fix their problems by firing Valentine instead.

But doing that won't address the Red Sox real problems, which are all over their roster.

Jon Lester Is Not An Ace

At 28 years of age, Jon Lester is in his prime. At least, he should be. Yet, Lester is having a miserable season, in which he can't seem to do anything right. Lester shows no signs of being the pitcher he once was from 2008 to 2010, when he posted a cumulative 3.29 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and was among the game's best lefties.

In each of those three seasons, Lester pitched at least 200 innings and he struck out at least 200 batters in two of them.

Yet, even before then, much was expected of Lester, a lefty who showed so much poise and promise.

After his 2006 rookie season, in which he threw 81.1 innings and went 7-2 with a 4.76 ERA, Lester was diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma. Red Sox Nation held its collective breath hoping for good news. This was just a kid at the very beginning of a promising career.

Thankfully, Lester fully recovered.

Following successful treatment, Lester returned to the Red Sox midway through the 2007 season. HIs comeback was highlighted by a dramatic Game Four World Series clincher against Colorado, in which Lester pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings, giving up three hits and three walks while striking out three.

Lester became just the third pitcher in World Series history to win the series clincher in his first post-season start.

The Red Sox had a 23-year-old lefty who would be in their rotation for years to come, who had already pitched on the biggest stage and who had performed admirably. Things were looking up for Lester and the Red Sox.

In 2008, Lester went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA and threw a no-hitter at Fenway Park. The Sox seemed to have their future ace. In each of the next two seasons, Lester continued to build on his success and established himself as one of the top young lefties in baseball.

But last season, things began to unravel for Lester, and that process has accelerated this year. Though he was named to the All Star team for the second consecutive season in 2011, and led the Boston rotation in wins and strikeouts, Lester took a step back. The lefty won 15 games but failed to reach 200 innings for the first time in four seasons and failed to strikeout 200 batters for the first time in three seasons.

When the Red Sox needed Lester to step up in September and be their ace, he failed to do so. Lester lost his last three starts and was never a stopper as the Red Sox wildly spun out of control. The team posted a 7-20 record that month, a historic collapse for a team that had been in first place for much of the season.

This year, Lester picked up right where he left off last September, showing futility far too often.

The Red Sox are 7-12 in Lester's starts this season. Lester got rocked again last night, lasting just four innings. It was the fifth time this season that he has not made it to the fifth inning. The lefty has not lasted past the seventh inning since May 14. Over his last two starts, Lester has given up 10 earned runs on 16 hits in 8 1/3 innings.

Think about that; the Red Sox have lost 12 of Lester's 19 starts. It's mid-July and he has a 4.80 ERA. In nine of Lester’s starts, he has either lost a lead or allowed a run to break a tie. That's your No. 1 starter, folks.

This is the guy that has been chosen as the Opening Day starter for two seasons running. He's the guy who had previously shown so much promise, potential and hope. He's the guy upon whom the Red Sox thought they could depend, on whom they placed so much responsibility. And Lester has failed to respond positively. When called upon, he repeatedly cannot answer the bell.

If he remains healthy, Lester should have about 14 more starts this season. If he somehow manages to average six innings per start in that stretch (which is not a given considering his performance this season), Lester would tack on another 84 innings to the 116.1 he already thrown this season. That would put him squarely at 200 in 2012. It could also prove to be the highlight of his season.

It should be noted that though Lester has been viewed as an ace and as the Sox No. 1 starter, there have always been questions about that status.

Yes, Lester threw the no-hitter. But some rather unremarkable pitchers have also done that. Just in the past decade alone, Anibal Sanchez, Jonathan Sanchez, Ubaldo Jiminez, Dallas Braden, Edwin Jackson, Francisco Liriano and Phil Humber have all thrown no-hitters. That's not exactly a who's who list, or a group of future Hall of Famers.

The point is, even an average pitcher can have a spectacular game, the likes of which becomes his career highlight. That's not to say that Lester is average, but make no mistake; pitching a no-hitter doesn't make someone a star or an ace. Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Steve Carlton, Grover Alexander and Lefty Grove, for example, never threw a no-hitter in their illustrious careers.

Lester has never won 20 games in any season. In 2010, he had 19 wins going into his final start of the year. In that big moment, instead of stepping up and winning his 20th game for the first time — for himself and his team — Lester melted down. He lasted just four innings, giving up a whopping eight runs on nine hits and five walks. Lester folded in a big moment, a chance at a personal milestone. And a victory would have given the Red Sox 90 wins that season.

Winning 20 games one season does not make a pitcher an ace. But it looks good on the resume and it helps make the argument a little stronger. Most aces win 20 games in multiple seasons.

Moreover, Lester has never won an ERA title or a strikeout crown either. If he wants to be thought of as an ace, he needs to win at least one of those. A couple of each and a few 20-win seasons would solidify the argument.

Let's be honest; Lester is not in the same category as Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain, Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, David Price, CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels and on and on. Those guys are all bona fide aces.

Lester is not an ace and he has never even been an elite pitcher. He has been a very good pitcher and in most seasons would have been a No. 2 starter on most staffs. This season, he looks like a back of the rotation starter — at best.

In fact, instead of sending Franklin Morales ( 3-2 in five starts, 10 earned runs, eight walks, 31 Ks in 26 1/3 innings) back to the pen, wouldn't it truly be in the Red Sox best interests to send Lester instead?

Red Sox Mired in Mediocrity

Major League Baseball has reached it's recognized mid-point, the annual All Star break. In reality, more than half the season is already over. After playing 86 games, the Red Sox are a .500 team with a 43-43 record. There are 76 games yet to be played in 2012.

Boston limps into the break having lost eight of their last 11 games. At this point, they look totally lost. It hardly comes as a surprise.

The Red Sox have been a middling ream for most of the season — other than those times they've been just plain bad. As the saying goes, water always finds its level. So do sports teams.

In April, the Sox had a five-game losing streak, followed by a six-game winning streak. They finished the month with an 11-11 record and never broke .500.

The Red Sox started May with a five-game losing streak and later posted a five-game winning streak. The Sox were as many as seven games below .500 in May and didn't get back to .500 until May 21. It took them until May 29 to break above .500 and they finished the month just one game over .500. Their May record was 15-14.

The Red Sox endured a four-game losing streak in June, followed by a four-game winning streak. The team got as many as three games over .500 in early June, but quickly fell three games below once again. Toward the end of June, the Sox again worked their way back to five games above .500, their high-water mark for the month and the season. The Sox posted a 15-12 record in June.

The team started the month of July five games over .500. But they immediately proceeded to lose five consecutive games, again reverting to the break-even mark in the span of just one week. So far this month, the Sox are an abysmal 2-6.

This is hardly what Red Sox ownership was expecting from a team that had an Opening Day payroll north of $175 million — the third highest in baseball, following the Yankees and Phillies.

Yes, the Red Sox have been plagued by injuries, losing their projected closer Andrew Bailey and left fielder Carl Crawford before the season even began. Jacoby Ellsbury was lost just two weeks into the season and hasn't played since.

At various points this season, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Scott Podsednik, Will Middlebrooks, Rich Hill, Andrew Miller, Daisuke Matsuzaka (twice), Aaron Cook, Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett have all spent time on the disabled list.

Despite their depleted roster, amongst all Major League teams, the Red Sox are sixth in batting, fifth in OPS, fourth in slugging, third in hits, third in total bases, second in runs and first in extra-base hits.

Clearly, offense is not the Red Sox problem. The returns of Ellsbury and Crawford will hardly make a difference.

From the very beginning, starting pitching has been this team's Achilles' heel.

Red Sox starters have a 4.81 ERA, third worst in the American League. And Sox starters also have a 1.38 WHIP (walks, plus hits, per nine innings), the fourth worst in the AL.

The Red Sox were counting on big time performances from the trio of Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz this season. What they've gotten instead are big time busts.

Lester has 5-6 record to go along with a 4.49 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. That's simply unacceptable. But what are the Sox to do? How valuable is he right now? Does anyone truly believe that other teams will be beating down the Red Sox door to obtain Lester after his September collapse and total failure this season?

Lester has now established a long trend of incompetence going back to last season and it has really hurt his value to the Red Sox — whether he stays with them, or if they seek to trade him.

Beckett is 4-7 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He us under contract for $15.75 million per season through 2014 and as a 10/5 player (10 years in the majors, five with his current team) can veto any trade. If the Sox are successful in any attempts to deal Beckett, they will be paying a substantial portion of his salary to pitch for another team, perhaps even against themselves. This has to be terribly frustrating to the Sox front office.

Buchholz leads the Sox in wins, but his 8-2 record is misleading. HIs run support average of 9.96 is the second best in the majors, after his teammate Felix Doubront (10.59). And Buchholz has a miserable 5.53 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. On another team, he might not have a win this season.

For his part, Doubront has been a pleasant surprise this year. Though his 9-4 record is the product of that aforementioned MLB-best run support, Doubront has fanned 97 batters in just 96 innings this season. That's a strikeout ratio of 9.09, 10th best in the majors.

However, the other side of the coin is Doubront's 4.41 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. And then there's the question of durability and stamina.

After missing almost all of last year, how much does Doubront have left in the tank for the second half? As it stands, Doubront averages just 5.65 innings per start, putting pressure on the bullpen.

Doubront pitched a career-high 129.1 innings back in 2008, which was five seasons ago. Between the majors and minors, Doubront threw 105 innings in 2010 and just 87.2 last year. Against that backdrop, Sox executives clearly have to be asking how much further he can go.

As good as some of their recent starts have been, can the Red Sox really stake their season on the likes of Aaron Cook and Franklin Morales? Not likely.

The reality is that the Red Sox cannot be a contender without an ace, and they will be hard pressed to acquire one before the deadline. Considering their swings and misses in the free agent market in recent years, will the Sox get in on the bidding for Cole Hammels? It will cost them dearly in terms of prospects, and then there will be a massive long term contract obligation as well.

While Red Sox fans would love to see the club purge itself of all its overpaid, underachievers, those are exactly the types of players that other GMs aren't looking to acquire at the deadline. Every team has scouts and a player's stats are public knowledge. There isn't a team in baseball that thinks that Lester, Beckett or Buchholz will be their difference-maker in the second half. The same goes for Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.

Fans may be eager to trade players like Ryan Sweeney and Scott Podsednik for a pitcher, but both have limited value. Even Jacoby Ellsbury's value has fallen at this point.

Ben Cherington may get creative and offer a package of players in return for a front line starting pitcher the Sox can control for the long term. But it will likely cost them some combination of major league talent like Lester, Ellsbuury and Cody Ross, plus prized prospects such as Ryan Lavarnway, Xander Bogaerts, Anthony Ranuado and Matt Barnes.

However, if management is of the same view as many of us — i.e., this season is lost, cannot be salvaged and is merely another bridge year to younger, homegrown talent that can meaningfully contribute down the line — we will likely watch the Sox continue to tread water and disappoint their fan base in the second half.

The Red Sox have spent the better part of the past decade building a winning brand in Boston and their fans have come to expect excellence. Given the high ticket prices and player salaries, is it any wonder?

However, the Red Sox have missed the playoffs for two consecutive seasons and have not won a playoff game since 2008. Unfortunately, those marks of futility are likely to be extended again this year.

Red Sox Rolled the Dice on Matsuzaka and Came Up Short

So much was expected of Daisuke Matsuzaka when he arrived in Boston that perhaps he was destined to disappoint. But no one ever expected this level of futility.

After all, Dice-K was a six-time All Star in Japan and was crowned the MVP of the inaugural World Baseball Classic in 2006. He also led his league in strikeouts four times, wins three times and ERA twice.

That pedigree led the Red Sox to bid $51,111,111.11 just for the right to buy Matsuzaka out of his Japanese contract and to attempt to sign him to a major league deal. The enormous figure — two to three times the Lions' payroll — shocked the baseball world, from Japan to the U.S.

The Sox then spent an additional $52 million to sign the Japanese righty to a six-year contract. The deal was negotiated on Red Sox owner John Henry's private plane en route from Southern California to Boston. As a sign of the Dice-K mania to come, the flight was followed by both the Boston and the Japanese media.

Matsuzaka arrived in Boston like rock star. He had his own entourage, including a massage therapist, physical therapist, interpreter and personal assistant. He also had an enormous flock of Japanese media that followed him wherever he went in his first spring training, as well as at every game that season.

Matsuzaka was said to possess up to seven pitches, including the infamous "gyro-ball". It appeared he had the stuff to be an ace, and he had certainly cultivated that pedigree in international competition.

But his tenure in Boston hasn't gone anything like Red Sox executives or fans had hoped.

In 2007, his first year with the Sox, Dice-K was a bit of a mixed bag, going 15-12 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Matsuzaka allowed 8.4 hits and 3.5 walks per nine innings. Those numbers were signs of what was to come in subsequent years.

The upside was that Matsuzaka made 32 starts in 2007, threw 204.1 innings and struck out 201 batters.

Clearly, wins and losses are team stats. But given the fact that Matsuzaka had an advantage over hitters who were seeing him for the first time that season, losing 12 games was a surprise. That said, the greater concerns were his high ERA and WHIP.

However, Dice-K helped the Red Sox win the World Series that season. He was expected to improve as he acclimated to life in the Major Leagues and the U.S.

All was well... we thought.

In 2008, Dice-K had by far his best year with the Red Sox, going 18-3 with a 2,90 ERA. But those numbers, while impressive, overshadowed some more troubling stats. For example, Matsuzaka made just 29 starts and threw only 167.2 innings. The latter was a byproduct of the righty's typically short outings.

Matsuzaka's innings per start dropped from 6.4 in 2007 to just 5.8 in 2008. He was undermined by high pitch counts and a lack of command that led to 94 walks, fourth highest in the Majors.

The striking reality lurking beneath the flashy 18 wins was this: Dice-K threw the fewest innings of any pitcher to have ever won at least 18 games in the history of baseball.

The following year, a pattern of injuries began to set in, which became a recurring theme over the remaining four years of Matsuzaka's Red Sox contract. He made just 12 starts in 2009; 25 in 2010; eight in 2011 and just five this season.

Over the last four seasons (2009 - 2012), Matsuzaka is 16-18 with a 5.17 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, a 1.72 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and zero complete games. This is the guy that was supposed to be an ace, a Japanese wizard of pitching. Go figure.

Matsuzaka never seemed to trust himself or his defense. He wouldn't challenge hitters and attack the strike zone. Instead, he nibbled at the corners and threw too many pitches to each batter. All too frequently, he succumbed to high pitch counts early in games, often by the fifth inning.

For their $103 million investment, the Red Sox got a total of 49 wins over six seasons; an average of 8 wins per season. In six years, Dice-K gave the Red Sox exactly one complete game.

Matsuzaka was never worth all that money, or all the hype that accompanied his arrival in Boston.

Dice-K went on the disabled list once in 2008 (tired shoulder), twice in 2009 (weakness in his throwing arm) and then missed most of 2011 and 2012 due to Tommy John surgery.

Now he is back on the DL yet again — for the eighth time in his six-year carer — with an injury to his trapezeus muscle.

It is possible, though not certain, that we have seen the last of Daisuke Matsuzaka in a Red Sox uniform. Most Sox fans can only hope. However, in the second half of the season, the Sox will likely need pitching depth.

Lefty Felix Doubront threw a total of 87.2 innings last season and is already up to 89.2 this year. Clay Buchholz threw just 82.2 innings last year and is already up to 86.1 this season. Franklin Morales started the season in the bullpen and has made three starts. The last time he made more starts in the majors was in 2008, when he made five.

The point is, the Sox may well need Dice-K again at some point this season.

And that is a very scary prospect.

Red Sox Made Wise Move in Trading Kevin Youkilis

As sad as it was for Red Sox fans to watch Youk go, it was time.

Kevin Youkilis will certainly be missed by Red Sox fans. But there is no doubt that the time had come to trade him. Will Middlebrooks could be the AL Rookie of the Year and he needs to play every day.

Youkilis, who could become a free agent at season's end, has missed extensive time in each of the last four seasons. The Red Sox held a one-year option at $13 million (with a $1 million buyout) for 2013, and they clearly had no intention of exercising it. One way or another, Youkilis was not going to be a member of the Red Sox next season.

At 33, Youkilis isn't aging well and appears to be in decline. Most scouts who've observed him have drawn the conclusion that, though he can still hit, he is now past his prime. This is clear from reports that the White Sox were the only club in the trade talks that didn't insist on the Red Sox picking up all of the remaining $6.6 million on Youkilis' 2012 contract, plus the buyout for next season.

It's a good bet that Youkilis can still be a productive hitter. But it appears that he has peaked and will never again be the player who posted consecutive seasons with an OPS of .950 or better from 2008 to 2010. Years of injuries have caught up to him and taken quite a toll. One has to be on the field to be productive.

Additionally, Youkilis has lost defensive range at third base and, at this point in his career, is best suited to play first. With the emergence of Will Middlebrooks (who leads AL rookies with 34 RBI) at third base, and with Adrian Gonzalez manning first, Youkilis no longer fit in Boston.

Youkilis was never the fastest, the strongest or the most graceful player on the team, or even at his position. But he always had great hand-eye coordination (as evidenced by his 20/11 vision) and terrific instincts. However, as his body has broken down in recent years, even those qualities couldn't make up for what Youkilis was losing physically.

Over parts of nine seasons with the Red Sox, Youkilis batted .286 with 133 HR, 563 RBI and .388 OBP. In that period, Youkilis won two World Series titles ('04 & '07), was a three-time All Star ('08, '09, '11) and was the Hank Aaron Award winner in 2008. That award is given annually to the players selected as the top hitter in each league, as voted on by baseball fans and members of the media.

The Red Sox drafted Youkilis in the eighth round of the 2001 amateur draft. He turned out to be the classic over-achiever. Despite not having a true athlete's body, Youkilis was able to wring every bit of potential from himself by sheer force of will.

Youkilis was called "roly-poly" by his high school coach, "pudgy" by his college coach, a "fat kid" by A's general manager Billy Beane, and a "thicker-bodied guy" by the Red Sox scout who recruited him.

However, Red Sox fans truly appreciate hard-working, dedicated ballplayers, regardless of their physical limitations. Youk was the quintessential "Dirt Dog"; a player whose grit and hustle always seemed to result in a dirty uniform.

In fact, Youkilis' hard-nosed style of play may have been his downfall. Due to assorted injuries, Youkilis has not played in more than 136 games for four consecutive seasons. That's nearly half his tenure in a Red Sox uniform. From 2009 to 2011, Youkilis averaged just 119 games per season.

Once again — due to injury, but also due to the emergence of Will Middlebrooks — Youkilis played in just 41 of a possible 72 games this season.

Even if Youkilis plays in every one of the White Sox remaining 90 games this season (which seems highly unlikely), he would ultimately play in a total of just 131 games this year. This trend will surely hurt his value on the free agent market this winter. But it's not the only red flag.

After posting a .258 batting average last season, Youkilis is batting just .225 with a .311 on base percentage this year. The latter is particularly troubling since Youkilis had previously posted an OBP of at least .400 in three seasons and of at least .390 in five seasons.

These are disturbing trends for a player who had been so consistent, and so good, from 2004 through 2010.

Youkilis was named to the Sporting News' list of the 50 greatest current players in baseball three times, ranking No. 36 on the list in 2009, No. 38 in 2010, and No. 35 in 2011.

Yes, as amazing as it seems, Youkilis was ranked the 35th-best player in baseball just one year ago; how far he has fallen since then.

Youkilis played for the Red Sox during a historic period of the team's history, in which they won at least 90 games six times in an eight-year stretch, spanning from 2004 to 2011. The Sox also qualified for the postseason five times during Youkilis' tenure, winning the World Series twice in that frame.

If not durable, Youkilis was indeed versatile, switching from third base to first in 2006 to accommodate the arrival of Mike Lowell. All Youkilis did was win a Gold Glove in 2007 and break Stuffy McInnis's club record of 120 consecutive games at first base without an error, set in 1921. Youkilis's streak at the end of the regular season was 190 games. He led the league with a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage, and an AL-record 1,079 error-less chances at first.

On April 2, 2008, on an unassisted game-ending play against the Oakland A's, Youkilis broke the Major League record for most consecutive error-less games by a first baseman, previously held by Steve Garvey, at 194 games. In his 205th game without an error on April 27, Youkilis also established a new major league record for first basemen, when he fielded his 1,701st consecutive chance without an error, passing the old mark of 1,700 set by Stuffy McInnis from 1921 to 1922. His streak, which started on July 4, 2006, was snapped at 238 games (2,002 fielding attempts) on June 7, 2008 against the Seattle Mariners.

Youkilis may have three or four more productive years left in him, but he'll have to switch back to first base to make the most of them. The grind of playing third every day will wear him down and his lack of range will result in routine plays not being made.

At some point after his retirement, it's a safe bet that Youkilis will be inducted into the Red Sox Hall of Fame. He was a beloved player who excelled during a very special era of winning baseball in Boston.

Youkilis was also a very productive member of the Red Sox, as his statistics will attest:

His .388 OBP is 11th in club history; his .875 OPS is 11th; his .487 slugging percentage is 12th; his 133 home runs are 18th (tied with Trot Nixon); his 239 doubles are 19th; his 564 RBI are 21st; his 594 runs are 25th; his 961 hits are 31st; and his .286 average is 32nd amongst Red Sox players.

But let's be clear; none of Youkilis' stats are top-ten in Red Sox history, and it took him nine seasons to compile them. He doesn't have another nine years in him and even if he did, he wouldn't double his previous production. The point is, the Red Sox had Youkilis during his prime years, his most productive years. He gave the Sox everything he had to give and they got a relative bargain in the process.

Youkilis' $424,500 salary in 2007 was the fourth-lowest on the club. And he earned $3 million in 2008, a year in which he finished third on the AL MVP ballot. The Sox got a lot of value for the cost. Youkilis didn't sign his first big contract — a four-year, $41.25 million deal — until 2009. Unfortunately, that's when the injuries began to mount and the production began to fall.

Will Middlebrooks is under Boston's control until 2017. He will be quite affordable for the big-market Red Sox at least until that time. If he stays healthy, all indications are that Middlebrooks can be every bit as good as Youkilis. The key is that Middlebrooks is ten years younger.

Time isn't kind to most athletes. In the era of free agency, players change teams every few years and team rosters turn over over few years. There are always young players waiting to take a veteran's spot. David Ortiz is now the only remaining member of the 2004 World Series team.

Red Sox Nation will always feel nostalgic toward Youkilis and this golden era of Red Sox baseball. They will always be thankful for his contributions, his commitment, his passion and his drive. But all things must end, as has Kevin Youkilis' time in a Red Sox uniform.

Thanks for the memories, Youk.

Roger Clemens Found Not Guilty of Perjury; Many of Us Not Buying It

So, a jury has found Roger Clemens not guilty of perjury. To be clear, the jury did not say that Clemens is not guilty of using performance enhancing drugs (PEDs). The verdict covers only perjury, not steroid use.

Perjury allegations are notoriously difficult to prove. The government had to prove that Clemens took PEDs, that he gave false information about events that occurred years ago and that he did so intentionally.

Regardless of the jury's ruling, there is plenty of evidence that the highly-competitive Clemens could not accept his mid-1990s decline and took steps to reverse it, including the use of PEDs.

Over his first nine seasons with the Red Sox (1984-1992), Clemens posted a 2.90 ERA and a 152-72 record. He also struck out at least 200 batters in seven consecutive seasons.

In Clemens last four seasons with the Red Sox (1993-1996), he posted a 3.79 ERA and a 40-39 record, one game over .500. Clemens never won more than 11 games in any of those four seasons and had a losing record in two of them. He also posted an ERA over 4.00 in two of those seasons. Additionally, Clemens failed to strikeout at least 200 batters for three consecutive seasons.

Four seasons is not a small sample size. For many players, it is an entire career. The "Rocket" was clearly in decline. Red Sox GM Dan Duquette famously said so when he noted that Clemens was "in the twilight of his career" after the '96 season and opted to let the free agent walk.

Obviously, that statement and the rejection lit a fire within Clemens.

Clemens was 34 years-old when he left the Red Sox following that season — past the prime of most pitchers in Major League history. Yet, after a four-year decline, he got substantially better in his mid- and late-30s, and even into his 40s.

Over the next two years with Toronto, Clemens posted consecutive 20-win seasons and had a 2.45 ERA. In each of those seasons, Clemens won the pitching triple crown by leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. Due to those stellar performances, Clemens won the Cy Young award both years.

Following the '98 season, Clemens was traded to the Yankees. He was 36-years-old at the time. However, he posted a sub-4.00 ERA in six of the next eight seasons.

As he got older, Clemens somehow managed to get even better. Somehow, he was defying time.

By age 41 or 42, most future Hall of Fame pitchers are either retired or are shadows of their former selves. Clemens, however, went 18-4 and won his seventh Cy Young Award at the age of 41. And the next year posted a career-best 1.87 ERA.

How was Clemens' able to perform at such a high level in his 40s when no other pitcher in history could? Even the great Nolan Ryan wasn't that good after age 40.

Clemens won an unprecedented three Cy Young awards after the age of 40. That is more than just unprecedented; it is unfathomable. It's a safe bet that no one will achieve such an accomplishment ever again. Clemens' feats didn't just defy age; they defied rationality and logic.

During Clemens' perjury trial, his longtime strength coach Brian McNamee testified that he injected Clemens with steroids in 1998, 2000 and 2001, and with HGH in 2000. McNamee produced a needle and other materials he said were from a steroids injection of Clemens in 2001, items that McNamee said he stored in and around a Miller Lite beer can inside a FedEx box for some six years.

Strange? Yes.

However, a forensic scientist who testified at the trial said that two cotton balls and a syringe needle saved after a steroids injection tested positive for Clemens' DNA. Alan Keel told jurors that the DNA on both cotton ball matches were "unique to one person who has ever lived on the planet" — Roger Clemens. Earlier government witnesses testified that steroids were found on the medical waste.

It is now established fact that McNamee injected Clemens' wife, Debbie, with HGH, as well as his teammates Andy Pettitte and Chuck Knobluach. Pettitte previously stated under oath that Clemens told him that McNamee had also injected him with HGH. Despite all of this, Clemens claims that he never used HGH or steroids.

Aside from the evidence presented at trial, the Mitchell Report also indicates that during his two seasons in Toronto (1997 & 1998), following those four subpar seasons in Boston, there is evidence that Clemens took performance-enhancing drugs.

By the end of his 23-year career, Clemens had famously won seven Cy Young awards, recorded 354 wins and notched 4,672 strikeouts. It's reasonable and fair to ask how much of that was attributable to PED's, not just hard work.

Clemens admits that he was indeed injected by his trainer, Brian McNamee. But he claims that the needles contained the vitamin B12 and the anesthetic lidocaine — not performance-enhancing drugs.

The late Boston Globe sports writer Will McDonough regularly referred to Clemens as the "Texas Con Man" during Clemens' tenure with the Red Sox. McDonough was right. In fact, he was quite prescient.

Clemens can try to sell his BS story all he wants, but many of us refuse to buy it. The evidence clearly indicates that he is both a liar and a cheat.

Starting Pitching Is The Red Sox Problem

Josh Beckett exemplifies the Red Sox woes this season

It's the middle of May and the Red Sox are 13-19, six games below .500 and and 7.5 games behind the first place Baltimore Orioles.

Which is stranger; the Red Sox' place in the standings, or the Orioles'?

No matter, Red Sox fans don't concern themselves with the Orioles. What we are all wondering is what the hell happened to the Red Sox?

Coming into this season, most people had reasonable expectations. After last season's epic collapse, no one was talking about this club winning 100 games, or when the next World Series parade would be scheduled.

In fact, expectations were tempered this time around. Many even doubted whether the Sox could attain their annual organizational goal of 95 wins. The question was openly asked if the Red Sox would finish in third place for the third consecutive season, or if they could actually slip into fourth place.

But no one in their right mind expected this. This Red Sox team is a shambles. It is atrocious. The team has just a .500 record (8-8) on the road, and yet that is better than their 5-11 record at Fenway Park. It's hard to believe.

The Red Sox have now played 20 percent of their 2012 schedule. This sort futility isn't an anomaly anymore. It's fair to judge his team for what it is; a failure. The Red Sox have been at .500 just two times this season and never above.

Let's put one thing to rest: the Red Sox are not too old. They've got players in their prime all over the field. Thirty-six-year-old David Ortiz is the only "old" guy, and he's tearing the cover off the ball this year.

In fact, the entire Sox offense has been amazing at times. They've scored at least 10 runs eight times this season, more than any other team in baseball. Among Major League teams, the Sox are 4th in runs, 4th in batting, 4th in slugging and 7th in OBP.

The defense has certainly been suspect at times, but the Sox .988 fielding percentage is the third best in all of baseball. That's amazing given that the Sox are playing without one-third of their projected starting lineup (Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis), all of whom are All Stars.

No, the defense is not to blame.

The Sox lost their closer, Andrew Bailey, before the season even began, which forced everyone else into roles they weren't accustomed. But the bullpen is not the problem either. Red Sox relievers have a 1.66 ERA in May.

The Sox bullpen has allowed just nine earned runs in 48.2 innings over nine games this month, and 11 in the last 68 innings going back 17 games. No, the pen is not the issue either.

The problem comes down to one thing above all else: starting pitching.

This season, Red Sox starters have a 6.01 ERA, ranking 29th in the Major Leagues. Only the Twins have a higher mark.

Therein lies the problem. It's the same thing that led to the collapse last September and it's never been addressed.

The Red Sox have just 13 quality starts this season. Only one Red Sox starter, Jon Lester, is averaging six innings per start, and he has a 4.29 ERA.

The weakness of the rotation is putting a huge strain on the bullpen, yet the relievers are still responding well. The Sox have been in some long extra-innings games recently, placing a tremendous burden on the pen. Yet, those guys have gone long stretches without giving up a run. They have stepped up when needed and cannot take the blame.

From the beginning, some people doubted rookie Felix Doubront (5.01 ERA) and even converted set-up man Daniel Bard (4.83 ERA). But no one was expecting this level of futility from Lester, Josh Beckett (5.97 ERA) and Clay Buchholz (8.31 ERA).

The Sox need to get healthy fast and they also need to shake up their roster with a trade. That said, most teams aren't looking to deal in May. The trade market won't start to take shape until June, and it won't really heat up until July. That's when players will have the most value -- if the Sox can hold on that long. However, they already appear to be out of contention in May.

It's a matter of honestly evaluating player value. No team wants to take on the huge contract of an under-performing player. And journeymen have limited value.

Yes, with the sudden emergence of Middlebrooks, the Sox would love to trade Youkilis. But what team wants a guy who has been on the DL for four straight seasons and who hasn't played in more than 136 games since 2009?

Youkilis is making $12.5 million this year. He batted .258 last season and was hitting .219 this season before going on the DL.

But Youkilis is very versatile, can play both first and third, and is a career .288 hitter. He gets on base consistently (career .389 OBP) and always has a nice OPS (career .878).

Youkilis not done. But he's 33 and not aging well. Perhaps a team with a genuine chance at the playoffs will show some interest since Youkilis' contract expires after this season. There is a $13 million club option for 2013.

Josh Beckett is a cancer. He takes no responsibility for anything he does. Trading him would send a powerful signal to the team that no one is untouchable.

But Beckett is a 10/5 player and would have to approve any trade, which means he can veto any trade.

Furthermore, he's chronically injured and is not an ace. Since August 8, 2011, he's 6-7 with a 5.44 ERA.

Becket is under contract through 2014 at nearly $16 million per season. How can the Sox possibly find a taker? What club would want that guy right now at that price? Beckett only has a decent season every other year.

The Sox are in a pickle. They need a players-only meeting. They have to fix this internally because they should be better than this. But where is the leadership? Who can, or will, step up and say, Enough is enough?

By the time the Sox can make a significant trade in July, their season may already be toast. But they will still need to address team chemistry and leadership for next season.

However, winning can be the balm for bad chemistry. No one talks about team cliques or self-indulgent players when a club is winning. But when it is losing regularly, all the ugliness rises to the surface.

One way of another, Youkilis and Daisuke Matsuzaka will come off the books at the end of this season, clearing more than $25 million in payroll space. That will help. But the team will still have Crawford and John Lackey on the roster — two under-performing players with bloated contracts.

The Red Sox represent THE cautionary tale about big free agent contracts. Buyer beware.

2012 Red Sox Look Eerily Similar to Team That Imploded Last September

The futility of reliever Mark Melancon is emblematic of the Red Sox early struggles this season.


With an Opening Day payroll of $173.2 million — up 7 percent from 2011, and the third highest in baseball — there are great expectations for the Red Sox this season.

After two consecutive third place finishes, despite a payroll among the top three in the game, much more is expected of the Red Sox this season.

After blowing a nine-game September lead — the biggest September collapse in the history of Major League baseball — there are great expectations that this group of Red Sox will somehow atone for that ignominy.

After replacing their General Manager, manager, right fielder, shortstop, closer, set-up man, and two-fifths of the starting rotation, there is great pressure on the Red Sox to right the ship and be more than merely competitive this season.

With a roster of high-priced superstars (nine players on the Opening Day roster are former All Stars), much is expected of the Red Sox. There is no room for excuses this season.

It's time to put up and shut up. It's time to live up to all of that potential, and all of that payroll.

But great expectations can lead to great disappointment.

The Sox bullpen imploded on Opening Day, making everyone miss Jonathan Papelbon rather quickly. After two games, the Red Sox had scored a grand total of three runs and were 0-2.

And then came Sunday's debacle in which Red Sox relievers blew two saves in a single game. Leads of three runs and two runs were overcome by the Tigers in the 9th and 11th innings, respectively.

It marked just the just seventh time in team in team history that the Sox scored 12 runs and lost. The last time it happened was on May 31, 1970 against the White Sox. That gives a sense of just how rare a meltdown of that magnitude is.

Though this is a new season, the Red Sox have picked up right where they left off last year; losing baseball games. In fact, having dropped the first three games of 2012, the Sox have now lost 23 of their last 30 games going back to last season.

Now comes the hysteria, the accusations, the finger-pointing and reports of dissension within the ranks.

On Sunday, ESPN's Buster Olney wrote about clubhouse dissension and its effect on the Red Sox, saying, "The splinters in the clubhouse festered long before the start of spring training," and that the Sox "have internal issues that need to get resolved."

Peter Abraham, of Boston.com, said there is clearly a chasm between Red Sox pitchers and hitters.

Given what has transpired over the past few days, those are very bad signs.

The Red Sox bullpen has allowed 10 earned runs on 18 hits in 11.1 innings. The offense scored just three runs over the first two games en route to losses. Yesterday the team scored 12 runs on 18 hits and still lost.

One can easily imagine how, on a divided team, the pitchers and hitters could blame each other.

The loss of Andrew Bailey could neither be prevented nor predicted. But it has thrown the Red Sox pitching staff into disarray. A key link in the chain was rather suddenly removed, and now the whole chain doesn't seem to work.

The most obvious solution is to make Daniel Bard the closer, the role he had seemingly been groomed for over the past couple of seasons. The Sox could then slide Aaron Cook into the rotation. Cook had a nice spring and a solid start for Pawtucket last week, in which he threw seven innings of shutout ball.

Cook is a sinker ball pitcher who, after a couple of injury-riddled seasons, is finally healthy. The veteran righty could play an important role for the Sox this season. As a sinker baller, he gets lots of ground ball outs and is unlike any other pitcher on the Sox staff. And Cook is yet another former All Star.

However, Cook has a May 1 out-out clause in his contract, and he will use it. Given the way he's pitched over the past month, some other team would love to have him. The Sox desperately need depth and can't afford to lose Cook.

The wise choice is to promote him to the big league club and make Bard the closer, a position he seems rather well-suited for.

At this point, there is no real reason to worry about shortstop, Carl Crawford, or the outfield in general; the Sox have tons of outfield depth. The one thing they don't have enough is solid, reliable pitching.

After the loss of Bailey, the Sox can't afford to lose anyone else to injury. Yet, Josh Becket cryptically noted that his right thumb will likely need surgery at some point. Should that become necessary at any time this season, or if Beckett is so affected that he pitches anything like he did last week in Detroit, this season will be over rather quickly for the Sox.

With this much payroll, this many star players, and so much to prove (really, so much to atone for after last season's disaster), it wasn't supposed to be like this.

While so much of the American League improved over the winter, at this stage, it doesn't seem the same thing can be said of the Red Sox.

Moving Bard and Cook into their proper roles may be all the Sox can do to bail themselves out before fully sinking.

Felix Doubront or Andrew Miller Most Likely to Land Fifth Spot in Red Sox Rotation

Perhaps the biggest mystery for the Red Sox right now is who their fifth starter will be when the team breaks camp in a few weeks.

The Sox are auditioning a series of candidates in spring training: Alfredo Aceves, Aaron Cook, Vicente Padilla, Felix Doubront and Andrew Miller are all vying for the final spot.

Carlos Silva, who suffered trough shoulder problems last year in the minors, has already been shut down by the Sox due to a recurrence of the same problem. Silva had been hoping to revive his career as a starter, but the Sox say he is now out of the running for the fifth spot in the rotation.

Out of necessity, the Red Sox gave Aceves four starts last season. But, due to his durability and versatility (Aceves has shown the ability to pitch up to four innings in relief), the Sox preferred using him out the pen. Aceves had a 2.03 earned run average in 93 innings of relief and held opponents to a .193 batting average in 2011.

In the past, Aceves has expressed his desire to start. After all, that's where the money is. The righty has about five effective pitches and he throws them all for strikes. That's already gotten the attention of manager Bobby Valentine.

"He’s almost a pitching savant kind of guy. He seems to have a great feel for his craft, innate almost. He sees things other guys don’t see, I think,’’ Valentine gushed recently.

But after losing closer Jonathan Papelbon to the Phillies in free agency and potentially shifting Daniel Bard to the rotation, can the Red Sox afford to lose the other key asset to their bullpen?

The feeling here is no.

Cook and Padilla are both established veterans. But both are returning from injuries. The last time either of them pitched was in the NL West, and they both looked terrible.

Due to injuries, Cook endured two successive bad seasons with Colorado. He went 6-8 with a 5.08 ERA in 2010, and 3-10 with a 6.03 ERA last year. After experiencing shoulder problems in 2010, Cook worked all offseason to get his shoulder in shape. But in spring training last year, he jammed his finger in a door and essentially ruined the rest of his season.

Padilla made 16 starts with the Dodgers in 2010, going 6-5 with a 4.07 ERA. Last year, after starting the season on the disabled list, Padilla made just nine appearances (no starts) and posted 4.15 ERA before quickly going back on the DL in May. Padilla was shut down with a forearm injury and later had neck problems that required surgery.

Because of their recent histories, both Cook and Padilla were only granted minor league contracts by the Sox. This will allow the club to use them as as inexpensive insurance polices, keeping them at Pawtucket for as long as necessary, waiting for the inevitable injury that will eventually occur to one of their primary starters.

On the other hand, lefties Doubront and Miller are both out of options. This means that if they don't make the team out of spring training, neither can be assigned to Pawtucket without first passing through waivers. It is a virtual certainty that both pitchers would be claimed by other teams, meaning the Sox would lose them.

Doubront was drafted and groomed by the Red Sox. After Clay Buchholz made it to the big league club, Doubront was supposed to be the next in line. But last year he showed up to spring training overweight and out of shape, then quickly suffered an injury in April. Groin and hamstring injuries caused him to miss most of the season, a year in which he ultimately threw just 77 1/3 innings.

It proved to be a lost year for Doubront, one that was supposed to be a key part of his development.

But Doubront is only 24-years-old and hard-throwing lefties are hard to come by. The Sox still have confidence that he can become an effective Major League pitcher. So far this spring, he's impressed everyone.

The young Venezuelan looked sharp in his two-inning start against Boston College on Saturday, allowing only an infield single and throwing 15 of his 20 pitches for strikes.

After the game, Valentine sounded quite impressed by Doubront's performance.

"He threw all his pitches extremely well. Seems like he's probably a little ahead of the rest of the pitchers with his command and stuff right now. He's looked that way since he's been here," said the Sox skipper.

The 26-year-old Miller arrived to the Majors with big hopes and expectations. He was the North Carolina Tar Heels' single-season and career strikeout leader. He was named Baseball America National Player of the Year and Roger Clemens Award winner as the nation's top collegiate pitcher.

In the summer of 2005, Miller was named the College Summer Player of the Year by Baseball America and rated as the No. 1 prospect in the Cape League by the publication.

Consequently, he was selected as the sixth overall pick in the 2006 draft by the Detroit Tigers. But Detroit rushed him to the big leagues a mere 10 days after making his minor league debut. That proved to be disastrous for both Miller and the Tigers. The lack of development showed and the Tigers eventually shipped Miller to the Marlins after just one full season. The lefty never really recovered and has failed to live up to all the promise and hype.

Now the Red Sox are tasked with trying to develop Miller and allowing him to reach his true potential. At 6'7", Miller has struggled with his mechanics and has a hard time repeating his delivery. As a result, he has been given every imaginable bit of advice by various pitching coaches and scouts. And all of it seems to have really messed him up, both mentally and physically. What he may be lacking most of all is his former confidence.

New Red Sox pitching coach Bob McClure has decided to leave Miller alone and just let him be himself, encouraging him to go back to being the pitcher he was at North Carolina, where he had so much success. McClure and the Red Sox have shown Miller lots of video of himself from those days, hoping he can revert to his old ways and his old self. Time will tell.

Last year, was rough; Miller had a 5.54 earned run average and 1.82 WHIP in 65 innings with the Sox.

Though the lanky lefty throws a serious mid-90s heater, he lacks control. Miller hasn't shown the ability to consistently throw strikes and gives up too many walks. He has a small window this spring to get it all sorted out.

So far, so good. Miller threw two scoreless innings and struck out the side in his first inning after a leadoff walk in an 8-3 win over the Twins Sunday at JetBlue Park.

The Sox would like nothing more than to have both Doubront and Miller make the big league club out of spring training. Both are still young and cheap. However, there appears to be just one available rotation spot. Most likely, one of them will have to earn a spot in the bullpen.

If not, the Red Sox risk losing one or both players. And considering the time, patience and development the team has dedicated to both pitchers, that's an outcome they surely don't want to see.

Red Sox Facing Series of Questions in 2012

Going into the 2012 season, the Red Sox have this trio. And then who?


For what it's worth, the new ‘Bill James Handbook’ does not project any Red Sox starter to reach 200 innings this season.

It's not a unrealistic projection.

Jon Lester is the only one among them that has fairly consistently pitched 200 innings over the last few years. Though he missed the mark last season, from 2008 to 2010 Lester eclipsed 200 innings and 30 starts. Last year he pitched just 191.2 innings, yet made 31 starts.

Josh Becket has reached 200 innings just once in the last four years. Additionally, Becket has made at least 30 starts just twice in the last four seasons, and never consecutively.

For his part, Clay Buchholz has never made 30 starts in any season and has an innings high of 173.2. Last year, Buchholz pitched just 82.2 innings.

Young pitchers are supposed to increase their innings incrementally over their first few seasons, working their way up to the 200 mark and beyond. In that regard, Buchholz has regressed. With that in mind, it's not easy to project the 27-year-old reaching 200 innings this season.

As a reliever during his three years in the majors, Daniel Bard has maxed out at 74.2 innings. Obviously, that's not even half way to 200. Of greatest concern, Bard has shown signs of fatigue down the stretch, with his walk rate increasingly as much as 400 percent in August and September the last two seasons.

With this in mind, it's hard to believe the Red Sox will enter this season with Bard slated as the No. 4 starter. And who knows who will be No. 5?

The Sox have a whole series of reclamation projects competing for that final spot. However, Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, Vicente Padilla, John Maine and Ross Ohlendorf all flamed out in the NL. And now one or two of them is expected to recover and succeed in the AL East? That just seems more absurd than dicey.

That group also represents the depth the Red Sox will surely need when an injury ultimately occurs to one of the initial five starters.

Lefthanders Felix Doubront and Andrew Miller are both out of options. The Sox will give both of them a shot at winning that last slot in the rotation. The odd man out could then vie for a spot in the bullpen.

That bullpen will be without Jonathan Papelbon, one of the best closers in the game over the last six seasons. And it seemingly has lost Bard as well, assuming his successful transition to the rotation.

In their places are new closer Andrew Bailey and setup man Mark Melancon. The Sox will also rely on the returning Alfredo Aceves, Matt Albers and Franklin Morales. The seven-man pen will be rounded out by some combination of Bobby Jenks (whenever he is healthy and ready), Clayton Mortensen, Michael Bowden, Doubront and/or Miller.

On paper, at least, the bullpen should be young, strong and effective.

Clearly, though, the offense will once again be the Red Sox' primary strength.

It's a fair bet that the Sox will see more offense from catcher this season, particularly if Ryan Lavarnway wins a spot at some point.

After his first full season in the Majors last year, Jarrod Saltalamacchia should be buoyed by greater confidence and stamina this season, resulting in a better performance. And Kelly Shoppach should give the Sox at least as much offense as Jason Varitek provided last year (11 HR, 36 RBI, .221/.300/.423).

The Sox can likely expect equal levels of potent offense from Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia at first and second, respectively.

Shortstop remains a mystery. Mike Aviles can hit, but will he play regularly enough for it to matter? His defense will be the key. Nick Punto should be Aviles' backup and a solid utility man.

Shortstop is a position where preventing runs may be even more important than creating them with one's bat. Though Bobby Valentine says he is looking for complete players at every position, which is a good thing, neither Punto nor Aviles can match Jose Iglesias' defensive wizardry.

That said, Iglesias batted just .235 with a .285 OBP in 101 games at Pawtucket last season. If he fared that poorly against Triple-A pitching, he'll be overwhelmed by big league pitchers. It's fair to say a big league hitter must have an OBP of at least .300 to warrant a roster spot, no matter how good he is defensively.

Iglesias has fewer than 700 minor league at-bats and should have at least 1,000 in preparation for the majors. He could be ready by mid-season. Even if he can't hit, he at least needs to work on pitch recognition and the ability to draw walks.

It's a good bet that after he recovers from wrist surgery, Carl Crawford will rebound this season, resuming his career norms offensively.

It's also reasonable to figure that Jacoby Ellsbury will regress slightly. The center fielder was playing out of his head last year, putting up numbers that stunned all of baseball. That kind of MVP-like production came out of nowhere and may not be matched again this year.

It seems reasonable to assume that the Sox will get more production from the platoon of Ryan Sweeney and Cody Ross in right field. JD Drew was like a black hole in the order last season, batting .222/.315/.302, It won't take much to improve upon that.

The key for the Sox offense may be a healthy Kevin Youkilis. Over the last three seasons, Youkilis played in 358 games; J.D Drew played in 357. That's amazing, given Drew's reputation for being delicate and often out of action.

Lastly, the Sox need David Ortiz to start and finish strong, as he did last year. The presence of Gonzalez seems to have really helped him. Observing Gonzo's approach at the plate brought out the best in Ortiz and seemed to revive him last season.

It appears that this Red Sox team will need to catch lightning in a bottle with its rotation. And it will also rely on its entire roster staying healthy. In short, the Sox will need a lot of luck just to make the playoffs, much less advance.

The Yankees, Angels, Tigers and even Rangers all got better this offseason, and all of them may be better than the Red Sox in 2012.

At this point, the Red Sox have questions at shortstop, in right field and in the bullpen. But, above all, the biggest questions are in the starting rotation. There are just three known starters at the moment, yet doubts exist even about them.

As with most teams, the Red Sox season will be determined by their starting rotation — the same group facing so much uncertainty right now.

Tim Wakefield Bids Farewell to Red Sox, Calls it a Career

Tim Wakefield announced his retirement today. However, the occasion was a forgone conclusion.

The truth is, the 30 teams of Major League Baseball had already made the decision for him; not one of them offered Wakefield a big league contract.

Even the Red Sox, Wakefield's employer for 17 seasons, only offered him a minor league contract, an invitation to spring training and the opportunity to compete for a job.

That had to be a bitter pill for a 200-game winner.

Unfortunately, all careers must come to an end, and that time is now for the Red Sox veteran.

Wakefield is no longer a quality starter and can no longer be depended on. Over the last two seasons, Wakefield has a 5.21 ERA; over the last three it's 5.00. It's the right time to say goodbye.

Wakefield was called into action last season after the Red Sox endured a rash of injuries to the starting rotation. When the season began, it was uncertain where he even fit on the roster and some speculated that he might not even make the team out of spring training.

No one could have anticipated that Wakefield would give the Sox 154.2 innings in 2011. In that span, Wakefield made 23 starts.

The problem was that just eight of them were quality starts.

The 19-year veteran retires with exactly 200 career wins, to go along with 180 losses. Wakefield will be remembered as an above average pitcher. He also finishes with a 4.41 career ERA, the highest of any pitcher to ever win 200 games. Yet, that's not bad considering he played 17 seasons in the AL East.

Wakefield finishes his Red Sox career ranked first in innings (3,006), first in starts (430), first in losses (168), second in games pitched (590), second in strikeouts (2,046) and third in wins (186).

His 97 career wins at Fenway are second only Roger Clemens' 100 victories at the grand old ballpark.

Not bad for a guy who started his career as a first baseman and quickly learned how to throw the knuckleball after being told by a scout that he would never get above Double-A-ball as a position player.

But Wakefield's love for the game prevailed and he carved out a nearly two-decade-long career throwing the elusive pitch.

That one pitch made Wakefield wealthy beyond his wildest dreams and gave him a long and enduring career. It also allowed him an important place in Red Sox history.

In 2010, Wakefield became the oldest pitcher to ever step on the mound for the Red Sox and the oldest to ever win a game for them.

But 2011 proved to be a season of even bigger milestones for Wakefield. And since it turned out to be his last, it was all the more fitting.

Last year, Wakefield became just the 89th pitcher since 1900 to reach 200 career wins. And he was just the fifth player to do so in a Red Sox uniform, joining Curt Schilling (2006), Luis Tiant (1978), Fergie Jenkins (1976) and Lefty Grove (1934).

At 45 years, 42 days, Wakefield also became the second oldest pitcher to ever record 200 victories, behind Jack Quinn, who was 46 years, 339 days.

Earlier in the season, Wakefield became just the second pitcher in Red Sox history to record 2,000 strikeouts.

Wakefield defied the odds and put together a remarkable career.

However, in recent years, it was a bit of a crapshoot every time he took the mound.

When Wakefield threw his knuckleball, even he had absolutely no idea where it was going to end up after it left his hand. There were always an assortment of wild pitches and passed balls whenever Wakefield was on the hill. Moreover, base runners took advantage of the knuckler and ran wild on him.

Over the last two seasons, the writing was on the wall; Wakefield's best days were behind him and he was running out of road. In 2010, Wakefield went 4-10 and posted a 5.34 ERA. The Sox were 6-13 in games he started. Last year, he went 7-8, with a 5.12 ERA.

In recent years, Wakefield became continually less effective. The last season in which he posted an ERA below 4.00 was 2002, when it was 2.81.

Though the last few years were a bit rough, they don't diminish Wakefield's accomplishments.

Wakefield was the classic overachiever. He built an entire two-decade career on just one pitch.

Though his career was not marked by greatness — Wakefield had just four 15-win seasons in his 17 years with the Red Sox — it was marked by longevity, determination, commitment and compassion.

The veteran pitcher was a caring and giving member of the Boston community. For his numerous charitable efforts, Wakefield was nominated for the Roberto Clemente award eight times and won it in 2010.

By all accounts, Wakefield was also a great teammate, selflessly doing whatever was asked of him. He started, closed, pitched middle-relief and even mopped up during his lengthy career with the Red Sox.

That's what we should all remember.

Though he is not a Hall of Fame-caliber pitcher, Tim Wakefield ranks among the greatest Red Sox pitchers and has staked his place in the annals of Red Sox history.

Thanks for the memories, Tim. And congratulations on your rather remarkable career.

Roy Oswalt and the Red Sox Need One Another

Roy Oswalt seems to be running out of options. His preferred destinations, Texas and St. Louis, have full rotations and/or little payroll flexibility.

The Cardinals have reportedly made a low ball offer and may want the 34-year-old to pitch out of the bullpen, something he does not want to do.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have an available rotation spot and have reportedly offered Oswalt a one-year contract in the $5 million to $7 million range.

Reportedly, Oswalt would like to pitch for a contender in 2012 (Texas and St. Louis played in the World Series last year). Yet, he remains reluctant to pitch in Boston. That's the puzzler.

Considering the great tradition of the Red Sox, the fact that they are perennial contenders, and that they have some of the most knowledgeable and passionate fans in the game, it’s rare that a player doesn’t want to play in Boston.

The issue seems to be Oswalt's desire to pitch closer to his home in Mississippi.

However, the Red Sox and Oswalt seem to be a perfect fit for one another. The Sox are in desperate need of a fourth starter and a veteran presence for rotation that showed a lack of maturity last season. In return, the Sox can provide Oswalt the opportunity to compete for a playoff bid.

The reason so few teams have shown any genuine interest in Oswalt is due to the degenerative disc issue that affected his 2011 season. The issue is a classic red flag. Degenerative disorders get progressively worse over time. But the Red Sox only need/want Oswalt for one year.

The question for the Sox (or any other club) is, how many innings can Oswalt realistically give them?

Due to his back condition, Oswalt was limited to 23 starts last season, posting a 3.69 ERA and 93/33 K/BB ratio over 139 innings.

Given the unlikeliness that Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard will give the Red Sox anything even approaching 200 innings this season, and that even Josh Beckett has only done so once in the past four years, the Sox need another workhorse aside from Jon Lester. At a minimum, they need more depth.

Oswalt isn't likely to be a workhorse ever again. However, prior to last year, he had thrown at least 200 innings in six of the prior seven seasons and seven of the previous nine. Simply put, Oswalt used to be quite reliable.

At his best, Oswalt has consistently been among the top pitchers in the game, posting a 159-93 record and a stellar 3.21 ERA over 11 seasons with the Astros and the Phillies.

Though Oswalt may no longer be an innings-eater, an All Star (three times) or a 20-game winner (two times), he is a veteran presence who would bolster a very suspicious Red Sox rotation.

Whether he pitches in Texas (and the latest reports indicate that this is increasingly unlikely), St. Louis, or Boston, how often will Oswalt go home to Mississippi during the course of the season?

Pitchers aren't allowed to leave their team on non-pitching days to go home and visit their families. And teams generally get just one off day each week, Monday or Thursday.

So what would it matter if Oswalt had to catch the occasional flight out of Boston? After all, Logan is an international airport that surely has daily flights, or connections, to Mississippi.

The entire notion that Oswalt needs to be close to home is a bit absurd. And it really brings his competitive fire into question.

If Oswalt's heart isn't into pitching for Red Sox, then he wouldn't be a good fit. Such an absence of desire could easily lead to him being overwhelmed by the offensive fire power of the AL East.

But the truth is, at this point, Roy Oswalt and the Red Sox seem to really need one another. They are, perhaps, each other's last, best hope for the 2012 season.

Come to Boston, Roy.

Red Sox Rotation Still Has Major Gaps

It's late January. Pitchers and catchers report in less than a month. Yet, incredibly, the Red Sox still have just three proven starters on their big league roster; Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

The Sox have signed veterans Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva and Vicente Padilla to minor league contracts in recent weeks. The absence of a big league deal means that each of them comes with assorted questions and there is no assurance that any of them will make the team out of spring training.

Cook and Padilla are both reclamation projects returning from injures and both are hoping to get their careers back on track.

Silva, presumably the healthiest of the lot, was cut by the Cubs during spring training last year and promptly signed a minor league contract with the Yankees. However, New York quickly released Padilla in early July after just two months. The fact that he couldn't even cut it at the Triple-A level is not encouraging.

Obviously, the Sox are hoping for a better outcome this year.

Each of the three last pitched in the National League and each of them struggled there. That does not bode well in the AL East.

So, even after these signings, the Red Sox are still in need of fourth and fifth starters. Above all, they need innings eaters who will take pressure off the bullpen.

The Sox will audition both Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves for a rotation spot in spring training. However, neither of them can be reasonably expected to carry a heavy workload during the upcoming season.

Last year, Aceves threw a career-high 114 innings. Meanwhile, Bard threw just 73 innings in 2011. How can anyone realistically expect these two former relievers to toss anything close to 200 innings in 2012?

Simply put, you can't. And that could pose a big problem for the Sox' three primary starters, as well as the bullpen. A lot of responsibility will rest on their shoulders.

Beckett has thrown 200 innings in just one of the last four seasons. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, he has been afflicted with assorted injuries. Over that lengthy period, the righty has never finished better than ninth in innings pitched. He is not what you would call a workhorse or an innings eater.

Buchholz has never thrown more than 173.2 innings in his career and, after suffering a stress fracture in his back, managed just 82.2 last season. Since there is no precedent for it, Buchholz clearly cannot be counted on for 200 innings this year.

Until last season, when he threw 191.2 innings, Lester had thrown at least 200 innings for three straight years. He is the only one of the three who seems capable of enduring the rigors of a six-month season in which he will be relied on for a minimum of 30 starts.

This makes the four and five spots in the Sox rotation critical. The Red Sox require a combination of talent and depth. They need tough, durable starters who will remain healthy and give them lots of innings, taking pressure off the bullpen.

Given his back issues, Roy Oswalt is not that guy. Due to the degenerative disc problem that afflicts his spine, even a one-year deal with Oswalt would be very risky.

But this late in the offseason, the pickings are quite slim.

Perhaps the best free agent starer still available is Edwin Jackson.

On Wednesday, ESPN's Jim Bowden reported on Twitter that the Red Sox have made an offer to the 28-year-old. Jackson's agent, Scott Boras, was reportedly seeking a five-year, $75 million to $80 million contract for his client.

Perhaps the Sox can get Jackson on a one-year deal at a more reasonable price.

The reality is that Jackson is a decent pitcher. Perhaps even a good pitcher. But he is by no means a great pitcher or one worthy of a frontline starter's contract.

Case in point: Jackson has a 1.476 lifetime WHIP and 4.46 ERA. Meanwhile, Aaron Cook has a 1.468 lifetime WHIP and 4.53 ERA.

However, Cook will earn just $1.55 million if he makes the major league club out of spring training.

With that in mind, how does Boras perceive Jackson's value to be anything near $15 million to $16 million annually? It seems likely that the Sox will offer a one-year deal at about half that annual value.

The upside with Jackson is that he has logged no fewer than 199-2/3 innings in any of the past three seasons. That's just the kind of guy the Red Sox are desperate for this year. They require a back-of-the-rotation starter who will give them at least 200 innings. Jackson fits that profile. And in Boston, there would be no expectation for him to be a star or to carry the staff.

Cook, Silva and Padilla may be able to provide the Red Sox with some depth at Triple-A this season, in case of an injury to a starter, But the chances of any of them breaking the Sox rotation out of spring training appear to be slim and none.

That's why, at this point, Jackson and the Red Sox appear to be a perfect match on a one-year deal.

Red Sox May Be Forced to Spend; But on Who?

Japanese sensation, Yu Darvish

It's mid-December and the Red Sox still need a right fielder, a closer and two starting pitchers. The problem is that they've already committed about $170 million in payroll for 2012.

Many Sox fans likely feel that ownership should just suck it up and spend the necessary money needed to address the rotation and bullpen. Perhaps the club can go cheap in right field with Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalsih, but they'll need to spend to acquire pitching.

However, even if the Sox decide to throw caution to the wind and eclipse the luxury tax threshold, there's still a serious problem that even bundles of money cannot address.

Hardball Talk ranked the 111 best free agents available this offseason. Here's a list of the remaining free agent pitchers (starters and relievers). As you can see, it's hardly an exciting or enticing bunch.

9. Edwin Jackson (Cardinals) 14. Ryan Madson (Phillies) 15. Hiroki Kuroda (Dodgers) 18. Roy Oswalt (Phillies) 20. Javier Vazquez (Marlins) 21. Paul Maholm (Pirates) 24. Francisco Cordero (Reds) 34. Joel Pineiro (Angels) 36. Jason Marquis (D-backs) 41. Bartolo Colon (Yankees) 52. Darren Oliver (Rangers) 57. Brad Lidge (Phillies) 65. Kerry Wood (Cubs) 66. Rich Harden (Athletics) 70. Jon Garland (Dodgers) 74. Brad Penny (Tigers) 77. Chad Qualls (Padres) 78. Jeff Francis (Royals) 85. Mike Gonzalez (Rangers) 88. Livan Hernandez (Nationals) 93. Fernando Rodney (Angels) 94. Jason Isringhausen (Mets) 97. Kevin Millwood (Rockies) 100. Ben Sheets (N/A) 04. Aaron Cook (Rockies) 106. Guillermo Mota (Giants) 108. Zach Duke (D-backs) 109. Dan Wheeler (Red Sox) 111. Chris Young (Mets)

Given the dearth of available talent, perhaps the Red Sox will instead attempt to make a trade for pitching — and they needs lots of it. More on that in a moment.

According to the Boston Herald, the Red Sox remain interested in White Sox pitchers John Danks and Gavin Floyd, as well as the Oakland A’s Gio Gonzalez and the Houston Astros’ Wandy Rodriguez. The Sox are also still interested in Athletics closer Andrew Bailey.

The question is, after trading away some of their best minor league talent to acquire Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez in recent years, what's left in the Sox farm system that other teams might covet? When it comes to top prospects, the Red Sox cupboard is largely bare.

Kevin Youkilis, who will be 33 at the start of next season, who has not played in more than 136 games in any of the last three seasons, and whose numbers have also been in steady decline? Clearly, the Red Sox would be selling very low.

According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the Rockies have expressed interest in executing a trade for Marco Scutaro. Perhaps the Sox could secure a pitcher in exchange for the veteran infielder. Though Scutaro is older and costlier, he's also tougher and better defensively than Jed Lowrie. Scutaro has a lot of heart and grit. He's given the Sox much more than anyone could have reasonably expected over the last two seasons. The Sox need more guys like him, not less.

Surely the Sox have been shopping both Lowrie and Josh Reddick. However, neither has established himself as a solid everyday major leaguer. Even in a package, the pair would have limited trade value.

Michael Bowden? Who wants him?

Felix Doubront? Don't the Red Sox already have a shortage of pitching?

Which brings us back to the other problem — aside from money.

The Red Sox typically carry 12 pitchers on their roster; five starters and seven relievers. At present, the Sox have Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, Bobby Jenks, Matt Albers, Franklin Morales and Andrew Miller on their roster. That's nine pitchers, no matter how you assign them.

The reality is that Red Sox' pitching is really thin right now. So, even if the Sox somehow have faith in all of those guys (which seems dubious), they'll still need some combination of three more starters and relievers, depending on what they do with Bard and Aceves.

At this point, how can the Sox possibly rely on the up-and-down Jenks, who just had minor back surgery yesterday in Boston?

Anyone want to roll the dice with Kyle Weiland again? No? Me neither.

How about Junichi Tazawa, a pitcher who has a 7.31 ERA in nine big league appearances over two seasons? The 25-year-old had reconstructive surgery on his pitching elbow in April, 2010 and missed the rest of the season.

After rehabbing, Tazawa returned to the minors last season and posted a 4.61 ERA in 22 games played between Salem, Portland and Pawtucket.

Tazawa may be useful to the Sox at some point next season, but not in the first few months.

Given the unpredictability of Jenks, Albers and Morales, the Sox might actually need to add five or six pitchers before spring training. That's a tall order.

Given the Red Sox apparent payroll limitations and the absence of highly coveted prospects (Jose Iglesias, anyone?), the Red Sox will face some serious challenges in filling the numerous holes in their rotation and bullpen.

Boston will take $52.70 million off the books this winter. But about $33.20 will be added back in due to player raises. That leaves approximately $20 million to use in building the roster. However, by accepting arbitration, David Ortiz will probably eat up about $14 million of that.

That's a tough position for the Sox to be in; they need multiple pitchers and the new year is right on the horizon.

Yu Darvish, anyone?

After all, it's only money.

While Red Sox Dithered, Other Clubs Improved Their Rosters

Although the Red Sox managerial search could be described as thorough, deliberative and methodical, it could also be described as dithering.

It was first reported that Terry Francona would not return as the Boston manager on the night of Sept. 29. The Red Sox and Bobby Valentine reached a verbal agreement on Nov. 29. That means the Boston front office spent two months searching for a manager.

While the Red Sox were dithering with their managerial search, they weren't focused on filling out their roster. Meanwhile, other clubs were busy addressing theirs.

The Sox lost Jonathan Papelbon and now find themselves without a closer. Even if Daniel Bard is chosen for that task, the team will still need more bullpen reinforcements — including a setup man.

Heath Bell, who would have been a really nice addition to the Sox, has agreed to a three-year, $27 million deal with the Marlins.

The length of Bell's contract is one year less than the deal Papelbon got from Philly. And the annual value of Bell's pact is less than the $12 million Papelbon made last year with the Red Sox, and the $9.35 million Papelbon made in 2010.

That would have made Bell a steal for the Sox.

Bell managed a 2.36 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the past three seasons in San Diego, a span in which he also saved at least 42 games annually. Bell is the kind of reliever that would have softened the blow of losing Papelbon.

It's been reported that the Sox talked to Bell's agent before he signed with the Marlins, but weren't willing to engage in similar contract terms.

However, it's fairly easy to draw the conclusion that the Sox missed the boat on this one and were caught unprepared because they were preoccupied with a managerial search that should have been completed a couple of weeks ago.

Valentine was the right guy all along. So, it's reasonable to ask, what took so long?

While the Marlins, White Sox, Cardinals and Cubs all acted quickly and decisively, the Red Sox vacillated.

The Boston front office wasted valuable time and now needs to turn its attention to the starting rotation and the bullpen — not to mention right field.

At this point, the Sox have just three starters; Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

Beckett has thrown 200 innings in just one of the last four seasons. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, Beckett has been beset with assorted injuries. Consequently, he has never finished better than ninth in innings pitched. Beckett is not what you would call a workhorse or an innings eater.

Buchholz has never thrown more than 173.2 innings in his career, and after suffering a stress fracture in his back, managed just 82.2 last season. Since there is no precedent for it, Buchholz clearly cannot be counted on for 200 innings next year.

Until last season, when he threw 191.2 innings, Lester had thrown at least 200 innings for three straight years. He is the only one of the three that appears to be built to last.

That makes the four and five spots in the Sox rotation very important. The Red Sox require both talent and depth. They need tough, durable starters who will stay healthy and give them lots of innings, taking pressure off the bullpen.

Given his back issues, Roy Oswalt is not that guy. Red Sox officials are expected to meet with Bob Garber, the agent for Oswalt and CJ Wilson, this week.

Reportedly, the Red Sox have also expressed interest in free agent Mark Buehrle (who has already thrown nearly 2,500 innings in his career), Japanese star Yu Darvish, Astros' starter Wandy Rodriguez, A's hurler Gio Gonzalez and White Sox starters John Danks and Gavin Floyd, among others.

Yet, Boston has other pitching needs to address, above and beyond their need for two starters.

The Red Sox bullpen had just three consistent, reliable components last season; Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves. Having opted to sign with the Phillies, Papelbon will not return to the Sox pen in 2012. That's left a big hole which must now be filled.

There has been much talk about moving either Bard or Aceves to the rotation in 2012.

However, last season, Aceves threw a career high 114 innings. How can anyone reasonably expect him to toss anything close to 200 innings in 2012? And taking either Bard or Aceves from the bullpen would create even bigger holes in a relief corps that already has lost Papelbon, creating as much doubt about the pen as the rotation.

Who's counting on Bobby Jenks at this point?

The Red Sox could pursue Oakland closer Andrew Bailey, Colorado closer Houston Street or Kansas City closer Joakim Soria via trade.

However, dealing for Adrian Gonzalez and Victor Martinez in recent years has left the upper ranks of the Sox farm system depleted of the kind of talent that other GMs covet.

Signing a free agent requires only dollars. However, trading for an impact player often requires the kind of prospects the Red Sox just don't have at this point. Players such as Jed Lowrie and Josh Reddick will generate limited interest and little return.

The Sox could also try to deal the versatile Kevin Youkilis for a pitcher. But, due to injuries, Youkilis — who will be 33 at the start of next season — has averaged just 111 games over the last two seasons and hasn't played in more than 136 games in the past three. That will affect his trade value.

The Red Sox could make a low dollar, one-year offer to Erik Bedard. But he has a long injury history and cannot be relied on. In seven seasons, Bedard has yet to throw 200 innings.

However, when healthy, Bedard is very effective, as his 3.70 career ERA and .97 strikeouts per inning will attest.

The Sox could also make a similar offer to Andrew Miller, who holds a 5.79 ERA over six seasons. But, at this point, the jury is in; Miller just isn't a very good Major League pitcher.

The Sox could also go the inexpensive, in-house route with Junichi Tazawa or Felix Doubront. But both pitchers are unproven at the Major League level and would amount to nothing more than a risky experiment.

However the Red Sox choose — or are forced — to address their pitching needs, there is plenty of work to do this offseason. And some of that work will begin this week at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. At the very least, the groundwork for free agent signings and/or trades should be laid there.

The Yankees got lucky with low risk contracts for Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia last offseason. Maybe the Red Sox could be similarly lucky this winter.

However, the Red Sox have tried that route many times — to no avail — in recent years, with Wade Miller, Joel Piniero, Brad Penny and John Smoltz, to name a few.

It's one thing to take a flier on a fifth starer. It's entirely another to do so with two-fifths of your starting rotation.

The Red Sox have many needs this offseason. But given the amount of time squandered searching for their manager — who was underneath their noses all along — they now have a lot less time to address all those needs.

This week's meetings in Dallas will be both revealing and important. In large part, the Red Sox are built to win now and need a few critical pieces.

That makes this offseason — and this week in particular — critical to the organization's goals, and the fan's expectations, for the 2012 season.