LESTER REACHES RED SOX IMMORTALITY

Johan who?

The Red Sox have always believed in Jon Lester. That is precisely why they wouldn't pull the trigger on a proposed trade for the then Minnesota ace. The Sox may not have predicted a no-hitter from the young lefty, but they expected great things nonetheless. After all, he'd just pitched the Game 4 clincher in the 2007 World Series.

When the Sox selected him in the second round of the 2002 draft, they hoped he'd be something special. And when his career took off like a rocket in 2006, going 7-2 in 15 starts, he looked special indeed. Then, when he started 2007 by going 4-0, he looked like a wunderkind.

But there have always been concerns; the lack of accuracy, leading to all too many walks and high pitch counts. Lester has typically been at 100 pitches, and done for the night, by the fifth inning. Yet the Sox saw something they liked, and still they believed.

Then came the cancer diagnosis and all the life-threatening drama that followed. Suddenly baseball seemed small and insignificant. At that point, all the Red Sox really hoped was that he'd survive and be well. But Lester did more than just survive; he's flourished.

Now 3-2, with a 3.41 ERA, Lester has shown flashes of brilliance this season -- even before last night. On April 29th, against Toronto, Lester out-dueled the great Roy Halladay, throwing eight innings of one-hit, six strikeout ball.

But Lester's season, much like his brief career, has been marked by inconsistency; less than a month ago his ERA was 5.40, and two starts ago it was still over 4.00.

Through it all, there was the belief that Lester was something special. And the Red Sox were not alone. After their ALCS defeat at the hands of the Sox last season, the Indians had an organizational meeting in which the consensus was that, after Josh Becket, Lester was the best pitcher on the Red Sox staff. That seems prescient now.

The no-hitter -- the masterpiece that all pitchers covet -- has eluded some of the best to ever play the game. Seven-time Cy Young Award winner Roger Clemens never did it. Nor has four-time winner Greg Maddux, or three-time winner Pedro Martinez, among others. In fact, of the 59 pitchers in the Hall of Fame, only 31 -- or roughly half -- have pitched complete-game no-hitters.

In 108 years of club history, there have only been 18 no-hitters thrown by Red Sox pitchers. To get a sense of how rare the feat is, at one point 33 years lapsed between Sox no-hitters, and at another point 27 years passed between such brilliant performances. Before Lester, the last Red Sox lefty to pitch a no-hitter was the greatest Sox lefty of them all, Mel Parnell. That amazing performance was delivered on April 14, 1956 -- 52 years ago.

But in this decade no-hitters have suddenly been occurring at a more regular pace for the Sox. Hideo Nomo and Derek Lowe pitched no-hitters in 2001 and 2002, respectively. And then, of course, just eight months ago, Clay Buchholz -- in only his second career start -- accomplished the feat. And now we can add Jon Lester to the list.

His remarkable performance last night is a stunning addition to his remarkable story. And consider how many chapters have yet to be written; Lester is only 24-year-old. In a decade he'll still be considered virtually in his prime. One can only imagine what he has yet to accomplish.

A no-hitter in just his 37th career start, a World Series clincher, and a sparkling 14-4 career record can only make us wonder in amazement, and watch with great hope.

With Lester, Becket, Matsuzaka, and Buchholz all so young, and so good, the future looks bright for years to come for the Red Sox.

Congratulations, Jon!

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

ORTIZ & RAMIREZ: FOREVER LINKED

Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are widely recognized as the most potent power-hitting combo in the game today. In fact, the pair are often compared to legendary teammates Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. And for good reason; Boston's dynamic duo have combined for 477 home runs during their tenure with the Red Sox.

Ramirez, with 498 career longballs, is about to become just the 24th member of baseball's 500-home-run-club; 262 of those homers have come as a member of the Red Sox. That puts him firmly in fifth place on the team's all-time list, a spot he will likely hold on to for the reminder of his career with the Sox. The names ahead of him are a veritable who's who of Red Sox greats; Williams, Yastrzemski, Rice, and Evans. Evans, the longtime right fielder, has 379 career homers with the Sox, and it's hard to imagine Ramirez surpassing him for fourth place. Manny would need 118 more blasts to do so.

Meanwhile, Ortiz, who hit his eighth homer of the season yesterday, has 215 dingers with the club. Sox greats, Jimmy Foxx, Bobby Doerr, and Mo Vaughn are just ahead of him, and with just 16 more knocks Ortiz will jump ahead of Vaughn -- and into sixth place -- on the club's all-time list.

It's very fitting that one the greatest home run combos in Red Sox history (the other being Rice and Evans) will reside in fifth and sixth place, respectively, on the much vaunted list, forever connected as Rice and Evans are. Indeed, it's quite appropriate that the two will be bound together, just as they are in the batting order, for years to come.

Boston's modern-day slugging sensations will be remembered as much for what they did as teammates as for what they did individually. The pair have homered in the same game 47 times, which ties them for 15th all-time among any set of teammates. For comparison's sake, Rice and Evans accomplished the feat 56 times, Ruth and Gehrig 73 times, while Aaaron and Matthews did it 75 times.

For two of the most popular players in Red Sox history, who've enjoyed so many successful and productive seasons together, and who've shared such a special bond, it's appropriate that they will be paired together in the Sox record book, just as they are in the present.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

SOX/ROX TALKS CENTER ON AA PITCHER

The Red Sox/Rockies negotiations continue. The Sox have eight days remaining to get a deal done for Julian Tavarez before they have to release him.

Indications are the Red Sox are interested in Rockies Double A pitcher Brandon Hynick in exchange for Tavarez. The 23-year-old Hynick is 2-2 so far this season for the Tulsa Drillers, posting a 4.89 ERA.

Numbers of this sort wouldn't seem to make the 6'3", 205 lb., right-hander untouchable, yet the Rockies claim they are unwilling to move him. In 46 innings Hynick has given up 55 hits to go along with 31 strike outs. And opposing hitters are batting .286 against him.

All of this leads one to wonder why both teams see him as so valuable?

Perhaps it was his performance last year with the Rockies Single A affiliate, the Modesto Nuts. There Hynick -- who was drafted by the Rockies in 2006 -- went 16-5 with a 2.52 ERA. In 182.1 innings, he allowed just 170 hits and only 31 walks, to go along with 136 strike outs. And opposing batters only managed to hit .243 against him.

For his efforts, MiLB.com named him Class A Starting Pitcher of the Year.

That's the kind of potential that both the Rox and Sox see as they assess Hynick. It's still early in the season, but so far the better Double A hitters have proven more difficult for him to handle. The question is, as the competition increases up the minor league ladder, will he be able manage it and make the jump? That's still an unknown.

Right now, the Rockies have to weigh their immediate needs against their belief in Hynick as a potential big league pitcher down the road.

That's a much easier decision for the Red Sox at present.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

SOX & ROX STILL IN TALKS

The Rockies/Red Sox trade talks regarding Julian Tavarez aren't dead yet. Now that Tavarez has been designated for assignment, leaving him in a virtual limbo, the Red Sox have nine days to trade or release him. Though discussions cooled when the Sox asking price was deemed too high, apparently they are heating up again, with a swap possibly coming within the next few days.

Colorado has said it is willing to deal from its outfield depth, in particular, at Triple-A, where Cory Sullivan is making $1 million. But Sullivan will be 29 in August and his stat line with the Rockies is hardly tantalizing.

In 2005 Sullivan hit .294, with 4 HR, 30 RBI, and 12 stolen bases in 139 games. The Rockies saw enough potential to grant him the center field position, as well as the lead off spot in the batting order, for 2006. That season he hit .267, with 2 HR, 30 RBI, and 10 stolen bases in 126 games. As if those numbers weren't lackluster enough, Sullivan actually went backwards the next year. In 2007 he hit .286, with 2 HR, 14 RBI, and 2 stolen bases in 72 games.

The sad truth is that Sullivan has only regressed as he's gotten older. He's simply not a Major League caliber player and obviously should be avoided.

The Red Sox are prepared to eat the majority of Tavarez's remaining $3.85 million salary this season, which could leave them in position to receive a better prospect. We can only hope.

One has to wonder why the Rockies think the Red Sox would want Sullivan and how he would serve the Sox needs? The answer is he wouldn't. They already have reserve outfielders Brandon Moss and Bobby Kielty, both of whom will come off the DL and become available shortly. So getting Sullivan wouldn't expedite a Coco Crisp trade. Sullivan couldn't possibly replace Crisp. Tavarez, while no pitching treasure, is an experienced big leaguer who can fill any roll asked of him. He is worth more than Cory Sullivan. Pitching is scare and sorely needed all over baseball.

The Rockies are simply floating Sullivan's name and hoping that someone -- anyone -- will bite. They're desperate to dump the excessive salary of an underachieving minor league player, and surely the Sox will be too smart to take the bait.

My best guess is that the Sox will wait for the best player they can get, regardless of position. Aside from additional bullpen help, they have no pressing needs right now. They'd be better off with a solid, young prospect who will help them in the future.

Cory Sullivan is not that guy.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

THE ERROR OF HIS WAYS

JULIO LUGO'S MISHAPS ARE ALL TOO COMMON. AND IF YOU'RE FRUSTRATED BY THE SOX' SHORTSTOP -- GET USED TO IT. HE AIN'T GOING ANYWHERE.

How much do you regret Theo Epstein's free agent signing of Julio Lugo? How much do you think Epstein regrets it?

Lugo single-handedly blew the game last night in Detroit. And it came after his teammates -- particularly Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis -- made super human efforts to erase a four-run Tiger lead in the late innings. So much for their effort. So much for the Sox five-game win streak. And so much for Jonathan Papelbon's 10-game consecutive saves streak this season. In fact, Papelbon hadn't blown a save since last September against the Yankees. Oh well.

The Red Sox, as a team, now have 20 errors in 2008, and Lugo is responsible for exactly half that total all by himself. Yes, by May 7th, Julio Lugo already had 10 errors. His manager, always quick to defend his players, blames the three error game that Lugo had in Toronto.

"You know what happened is he made the three in Toronto that are going to bite him for the rest [of the season] 'cause he has a lot now," Francona said Monday. "He made those errors in Toronto. That's a bad day. That's going to up his total. We stay on him all the time about being that guy that's aggressive and fearless because that's when he's a better player."

It's hard to say when Lugo is a better player. He's committed more than 20 errors in a season three times and had 19 last year. He's on pace for about 45 this year.

Even if he had made just one error that dismal night north of the border, he'd still be tied for first in the Majors with eight errors. Let's be honest; that night wasn't really the problem. It was merely emblematic of Lugo's poor fielding ability. He's a great athlete, and his athleticism has carried him through his career. But his fundamentals -- the things he should have learned and polished as a teenager -- are terrible.

It's hard to explain Epstein's "man crush" on Lugo. Just what was it that made him bid against only himself, and offer a pretty average player a four-year, $36 million contract? I mean Lugo had just hit .219 with the Dodgers when Eptein made his bid. Is he really better than Error Renteria or Alex Gonzalez? I think not.

And the Sox are stuck with him. Wouldn't you just love to have Jed Lowrie as the everyday shortstop right now? Don't you think the Red Sox would be better off? And forget the idea of dumping or trading Lugo; no one will touch a human error machine -- who doesn't hit well -- at $9 mil per season. The Sox are in a pickle. And if they ever do find a taker, they'll be paying him to play for someone else -- just like Renteria.

Lugo hit a paltry .237 last year. This year he's off to a better start (.293), but I don't anticipate that it will last. Sure, he had 73 RBI last season, but considering how well the Red Sox hit as a team, there was almost always someone on base whenever he went to the plate. Make contact and you'll drive in runs. But so far this season, Lugo has eight RBI and no homers. Yeah, he's stolen four bases, but was caught twice. That's a one-third failure rate.

Bottom line; no glove, no love.

Yes, the Red Sox are stuck with Lugo. And we're stuck watching as his errors mount. If he cracks 20 homers or steals 40 bases it will help make up for his miscues in the field. But he's never done either before, and there's no reason to believe he'll start now.

If you can't reasonably help your team win with your bat, the least you can do is not help it lose with your glove.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

WAKEFIELD REACHES MILESTONE

With his first strike out tonight, Tim Wakefield became just the second pitcher in Red Sox history to record at least 1700 career strikeouts. The 41-year-old veteran struck out a total of six Tigers, giving up just two hits and no walks, in eight shutout innings. That brings Wakefield's strikeout total to 1705 with the Sox, and counting.

Cy Young never reached 1700 strike outs in his legendary career with the Red Sox, and neither did Pedro Martinez, Luis Tiant, or Smokey Joe Wood. In fact, the only other Sox pitcher to reach the milestone was Roger Clemens, who fanned 2590 batters while with the Sox. It appears that Clemens mark will be safe for years to come.

Wakefield, the crafty knuckleball pitcher, dropped his ERA below four during his eight dazzling innings of work. However, he did pass Clemens in one area he probably would rather not have; he is now the Sox all-time leader in hits allowed, at 2361. Entering tonight's game, the two had been tied.

That's part of the mixed bag that you get with Tim Wakefield. You take the bad with the good.

For instance, Wakefield's 135 losses are the most in team history; his 324 home runs allowed are by far the most in team history; his 923 walks are the most in team history; and his 1177 earned runs are the most in team history. Much of that is the by-product of his longevity; if you stick around long enough the numbers pile up -- for better and for worse.

After earning his 157th career victory with the Red Sox tonight, Wakefield has an outside shot of surpassing Young and Clemens, who are tied with 192 wins apiece. He'd likely have to pitch another two seasons to do so, but for a knuckleballer that is possible. If he plays even one more season -- which seems likely at this point -- he will pass Clemens in in both innings pitched and starts, becoming the club's new all-time leader in both categories.

We may hold our collective breath whenever he starts, or when one of his knucklers flutters away from the catcher and toward the backstop. But we're used to it by now. Aren't we?

Enjoy it for what it's worth. Statistically speaking, we're watching one of the Red Sox all-time greats. And there's no doubt that we're watching one of the finest, most gracious men to have ever worn the Red Sox uniform.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

PAPELBON MAKES HIS MARK

YOUNG CLOSER SETTING STAGE FOR RED SOX HISTORY

In just his third season as the Red Sox closer, Jonathan Papelbon is already poised to make Sox history. After his 10th save in 10 chances on Monday night, Papelbon now has 82 career saves. And before this season is over, Papelbon could very well move into second place on the team's all-time saves list.

Possessing a fastball that has been clocked at 99 miles per hour, plus a nasty split and changeup, Papelbon is arguably the premier closer in baseball right now. Surely, he is the best closer most fans have ever seen in a Red Sox uniform. Perhaps that's because he is. At the least, he's creeping up on the best that preceded him in Boston.

As it stands, Papelbon is in sixth place on the Sox' all-time saves list. With just four more saves he will overtake Derek Lowe and move into fifth place. That could happen in the space of a week or so. With seven more saves he will move past Jeff Reardon into fourth place. And with 10 more saves he will pass Ellis Kinder for third place. Expect all of that to happen sometime this summer.

But here's what is truly impressive; if Papelbon -- who has averaged 36 saves over the last two seasons -- holds true to form, he will surpass Dick Radatz and become #2 on the team's all time saves list by the end of this season, just his third in the Majors.

The present "King of the Hill" is Bob "The Steamer" Stanley, who amassed 132 career saves over 13 seasons with the club. Though Stanley has held the team record since retiring in 1989, at this point he is not long for that distinction. If history is a guide, Papebon will become the new Red Sox all-time saves leader before the conclusion of the 2009 season.

That would be a truly amazing feat, considering that it would only be Papelbon's fourth season in the role of closer.

Papelbon is at the top of his game and notes that he feels stronger than ever before. "I just feel that I know my body more and more and what I'm capable of," said the closer. "It's amazing what my program has been able to do for me. I stick to it. I'm really committed to it and it has helped me stay strong."

For opposing hitters, just making contact probably feels like an accomplishment. Papelbon has gone 14 appearances without walking a batter. In fact, the last time he walked an opposing hitter was on March 25, against Oakland, in Japan. In that same period, he has struck out 21 batters.

The young phenom is both respected and feared throughout the baseball, and every team would rather have him than have to face him. The Sox, and their fans, consider themselves lucky.

And with each additional save, Papelbon continues to stake his place in the Red Sox storied history.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

THE MARVEL OF MATSUZAKA

Exactly how Daisuke Matsuzaka earned a "W" tonight is tough to figure.

The unpredictable pitcher's stat line was schizophrenic to the point of unbelievable; just two hits, but EIGHT walks, resulting in just one run, over five innings. In that span he threw 109 pitches. And when all was said and done, the hurler -- who is ninth in the AL in strike outs -- had just one K.

As I said, tough to figure.

As one might imagine, the eight walks were a personal high for Matsuzaka, whose career spans less than two seasons. It also tied the major league high for walks this season. It's hard to imagine a pitcher with even seven walks being left in a game.

Matsuzaka went to three-ball counts on five of the first seven batters he faced. Through three innings, though he had allowed no hits, he had posted five walks. In fact, the Tigers didn't notch their first hit against him until the fourth inning. By the end of the fifth, Matsuzaka had allowed a stingy two hits, yet a staggering 10 Tigers had reached base. How he managed to surrender just one run is anybody's guess. If he had given up any more hits it may have lead to a blowout.

The issue of walks has plagued Matsuzaka all season. Tonight's struggle highlighted a larger problem; Matsuzaka is tied for the Major League Lead with 27 free passes. That makes his 5-0 record rather amazing. But since he only surrendered one run tonight, his ERA dropped to a meager 2.43 -- fourth best in the AL.

Say what you will, but the guy is a study in contrasts. You've got to give him credit; getting a win under those circumstances was quite remarkable. The last Red Sox pitcher who gave up eight walks and still got a win was Oil Can Boyd back in June of 1985.

Matsuzaka is a determined competitor. He won't give hitters anything to hit, and even when behind in the count, he won't back down. That kind of stubbornness has lead to the high walk total. He gets himself into jams, and more often than not he gets out of them.

A Matsuzaka start is often an adventure -- one that raises your blood pressure and keeps you on the edge of your seat. But ultimately it's tough to criticize 5-0 and 2.43. It may be unconventional, and heart-racing, but he gets the job done.

Remember tonight. It could be at least another 23 years before a Red Sox pitcher gives up eight walks en route to a victory. At least let's hope so.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

SOX RISE TO CHALLENGE IN APRIL

Despite a 30,000-mile road trip that included three nations, injuries, and a flu bug that invaded their clubhouse, the Sox still finished April in first place in the AL East, with the second best record in the league.

Josh Beckett. Mike Timlin, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Manny Delcarmen, Coco Crsip, JD Drew, Alex Cora, Sean Casey, David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury all missed various amounts of time due to injury or illness.

The Sox had to call on Triple A players, such as Jed Lowrie, Brandon Moss, David Pauley, Justin Masterson, Craig Hansen, and Joe Thurston, because they were so decimated and undermanned. To win in the face of these challenges is very impressive. And that's not all.

The Sox lead the Majors with eight wins in their last at-bat this season, and are 8-2 in one run games.

However, while the Sox travel schedule was indeed challenging, the majority of their opponents were not. In April, the Sox played series' against Oakland, Toronto, Detroit, New York, Cleveland, Texas, Anaheim, and Tampa Bay. Of all those teams, only Tampa Bay, Anaheim, and Oakland had records of .500 or better. So the Sox clearly benefitted from a weak schedule.

Here's how the Sox stacked up in April versus last year:

2007 - 2008

16-8 Record 17-12

.262 Team Avg. .288

27 Home Runs 22

3.28 Team ERA 4.40

69 Walks 112

.228 Op. Bat Avg. .246

First the good news: The Sox are second in the Majors in hits and batting average. But the pitching could be a concern.

Here's the not-so-good news: The Sox team ERA is 19th in baseball, and 10th in the AL. They are fourth in walks -- second in the AL. They are also fourth in the AL in runs allowed. If you're looking for the upside on the pitching staff, they are tied for second in the majors with three shutouts, have allowed the ninth fewest hits, and are third in strikeouts -- first in the AL.

David Ortiz was mired in a slump for much of the month, but has finally come around and found his stroke. Mike Lowell was injured and couldn't produce while on the DL. Despite the struggle/absence of these two key leaders, the offense largely thrived. With both of them healthy and performing to their capability, the Sox offense will only get better.

Indeed, if there is an area of concern, it has got to be pitching. Walks have hurt the Red Sox, costing them runs and games. The only starter with an ERA under 4 is Dice-K (2.52). And the middle relief has been ugly and costly.

However, Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz should get better and more confident as the season progresses. Dice-K looks like the pitcher everyone had anticipated last season and is leading the team in ERA and strikeouts. Josh Beckett will compete for the Cy Young Award once again. And the combination of Bartolo Colon and Curt Schilling could add depth later this year. Their veteran presence and experience could also help in a playoff hunt. But for Schilling to pitch, and be effective, again will require a minor miracle.

In the meantime, we can only hope that the starters stay healthy. And if someone goes down, Justin Masterson gave us a reason for hope. And there is little doubt that Theo Epstein will be looking for bullpen help once again at the trade deadline (isn't he always?).

Despite their difficulties in April, the Red Sox gave us reason to believe that they will compete for a Championship again this year. But it won't be easy. The division has gotten stronger due to the improvements of Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Nine of fourteen AL teams have at least a .500 record. They're all beating up on one another and the competition, so far, has been fierce.

It will likely remain that way as the season continues to unfold.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

LESTER SHINES AT FENWAY

This version of Jon Lester was the one everyone was waiting to see. From the ownership group, to the baseball operations department, to the coaching staff, to his teammates, to the fans of Red Sox Nation. This was delivering the goods. This was living up to the promise, and the expectations.

Lester out-dueled one of baseball's bona fide aces, Roy Halladay, throwing eight innings of one-hit, six strikeout ball. Though he allowed four walks, he didn't let them hurt him and got out of jams each time.

For his part, Toronto's resident stud threw yet another complete game, allowing just five hits and one run, while striking out six. Halladay has lost too many heartbreakers of this nature as his offense has stumbled.

Lester was the reason for that on Tuesday night.

But Lester's inconsistency has frustrated everyone, including himself. All too often he has been the victim of his own high pitch counts, numerous walks, and early exits. The poor performances even lead him to doubt himself. Good thing his confidence wasn't too shaken. And after such a compelling performance, he should be inspired.

The key was throwing first-pitch strikes and getting ahead in the count early. His changeup was elusive and made his fastball all the more effective. His consistency in the strike zone allowed him an economical 97 pitches.

This was surely one of Lester's finest moments in the Majors.

"Everything's coming along good," he said after the game. "Seems like every time I go out there, I take strides in the right direction."

Lets hope this is the beginning of the right kind of consistency.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

MASTERSON MASTERFUL

In the past week we've witnessed a remarkable display of the Red Sox organizational depth and player development. We've been impressed by he likes of Jed Lowrie and Craig Hansen, while Joe Thurston and David Pauley contributed as well, though less spectacularly. Pauley may make a serviceable fifth starter for some Major League team, though it likely won't be the Red Sox.

And then today we had the Major League debut of Justin Masterson, who certainly opened some eyes with an impressive performance against a potent Angels offense.

In six innings of work, Masterson stymied Angel hitters with his tough sinker, allowing one earned run on two hits. The young righty struck out four batters and left the game with a 3-1 lead, only to be undone by the lamentable middle relief of the Red Sox.

Already it's become an old story, even though it's still so early in the season.

The Red Sox bullpen (three different pitchers) allowed four runs -- on four hits and three walks -- before recording a single out in an abysmal 7th inning that saw the Angels take a 5-3 lead. Javier Lopez and Manny Delcarmen were just awful (two earned runs apiece), and even Hideki Okajima didn't even look like his usual, dependable self. David Aardsma and Julian Tavarez were no better in their turns on the mound.

Whether it's Lopez, Delcarmen, Tavarez, Aardma, or Mike Timlin, it is often an adventure -- or misadventure -- for the Red Sox. No lead is safe when any member of this group takes the mound, as we've repeatedly seen in the season's opening month.

The powerful Red Sox offense has bailed out the bullpen with 10 come-from-behind wins already this year. That's the significant reason the Red Sox, despite the loss today, still have the best record in the American League at 15-9.

It's too bad that Masterson's masterful performance was spoiled by such futility and incompetence. But the Red Sox are not alone. The same problem prevails all over baseball. As I've said before, middle relief is no relief at all.

No matter, Justin Masterson gave us something to look forward to today, and he lived up to all the hype. That's often tough to do; many young players wilt under such expectations. His presence will provide depth and additional possibilities as the season progresses. We're sure to see him again this year, and at this rate it may be as a middle reliever.

Any one of the guys that let him and the rest of the team down -- again -- today could be out of a job before long.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

LOWRIE MAKING AN IMPRESSION

Sure, it's early. But Jed Lowrie is increasingly looking like the real deal.

The kid had two more doubles on Sunday, scored once, and knocked in a run in yet another come-from-behind Red Sox victory. Solid and consistent play is quickly becoming routine for the 24-year-old infielder.

On Saturday night Lowrie knocked a single, a double, scored a run, and drove in an RBI on a sacrifice fly. And his three RBI against Cleveland on Tuesday were the most by a Sox player in his debut since Merrill Combs drove in four against the St. Louis Browns in 1947.

So far, in 12 at-bats over three games, the switch-hitter has five hits (three of them doubles), five RBI, three runs, and is batting a healthy .417. That's a pretty sweet stat line to begin a career.

The kid has already proven that he can hit big league pitching, and that he is also versatile enough to play third, short and second. That sort of ability increases his value to the team and could make him a sort of "super-sub" until the Sox can open a position for him.

The most obvious position in the near term would be shortstop, where the $9 million-a-year Julio Lugo currently resides. At that price, the Sox aren't likely to find any takers willing to assume all of Lugo's hefty salary, so they would likely have to eat some of it.

Some may find that sort of talk to be a bit premature. After all, the Sox did manage to win a World Series with Lugo hitting just .237, to go along with a paltry .294 OBP. And Lugo did manage to knock in 73 runs and steal 33 bases last year.

This year he's off to a better start, hitting a respectable .273. But his OBP is still just .304 and he has only two extra-base hits. Lowrie has already exceeded that. To top it off, Lugo has a whopping six errors in the season's first month, tying him for the major league lead. If the veteran shortstop keeps this up, calls for Lowrie to replace him will be heard loud and clear all over Red Sox Nation.

It sure would be nice to see Lowrie stick around for a while. The rest of the season would be nice. After all, who wants to see this kid back in Pawtucket? He's already earning his place and helping the team win.

At this point, Julio Lugo looks like the one with something to prove.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

MIDDLE RELIEF AIN'T NO RELIEF AT ALL

Thank goodness for Josh Becket. The Red Sox resident ace managed to go eight innings against the potent Yankee lineup, giving up six hits and only one walk, resulting in just three earned runs. Through eight innings, Becket threw 105 pitches.

The Red Sox needed this sort of performance, coming on the heels of repeated short starts, and high pitch counts, by Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz and Tim Wakefield.

In their last three starts, respectively, the stat line of the foursome looks like this:

Lester: 4.1 innings - 10 base runners; 5.1 innings - 9 base runners; 6.2 innings - 6 base runners

Matsuzaka: 5 innings - 11 base runners; 6.2 innings - 11 base runners; 6.2 innings - 2 base runners

Buchholz: 3.2 innings - 9 base runners; 6 innings - 7 base runners; 5 innings - 8 base runners

Wakefield: 6 innings - 11 base runners; 5 innings - 8 base runners; 6 innings - 9 base runners

So far this season, Sox pitchers are undermining themselves, and the team, with walks. The walks have lead to high pitch totals and starts that have been all too brief.

Despite Beckett's one-walk outing, Red Sox pitchers lead all of baseball with 74 walks. The league average is 49. Last season, the Sox allowed a total of 482 walks, which were sixth-fewest in all of baseball. This season, they are walking batters at a rate that would result in 739 walks by season's end. That would be the most in the majors since the Brewers granted 728 free passes in 2000.

In all of baseball, only Cleveland's Fausto Carmona has more walks than Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester (15 each). And Tim Wakefield isn't far behind with 12.

These high walk totals have been running up the Sox starter's pitch counts, and ultimately taxing a bullpen that is already overworked in just the first month of a six-month season.

Because they can't consistently throw strikes, the starters are wearing themselves out, and they're wearing out the bullpen too. This has got to stop, and soon. It won't work over the long haul of a 162-game season. Teams like the Yankees are stocked with patient hitters who tend to wear down pitchers. They make pitchers throw strikes, and so far Sox pitchers can't do that consistently.

Seemingly, every time a Red Sox starter takes the mound, at least three additional pitchers are needed to complete the game. So far, that's not working, and no one should expect it to.

The middle relievers can't be counted on to bail the starters out. Middle relievers are in that role because they're not good enough to close or start. Manny Delcarmen, Mike Timlin, Javier Lopez, Julian Tavarez -- do you really trust any of them? How could anyone?

Each time one of them comes out of the pen, you can almost hear the collective gasp go out from Red Sox Nation. Hold on tight, it's gonna be a bumpy ride!

To be fair, the Red Sox aren't the only team with a weak or unpredictable middle relief corps. And most A.L. clubs are lucky to have two decent starers -- at best. But to be champions again, the Red Sox will need to do better. If the bullpen remains this overworked and unreliable, the Sox will be forced to call on castoffs like Kyle Snyder or Bryan Corey again, or surrender a valuable asset/prospect in a trade they'd rather not make.

Being forced to make such decisions would surely be regrettable, but perhaps no more so than the current status quo.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

BULLPEN DEPTH COULD PROVE VALUABLE TO SOX

It has been said countless times that "pitching wins championships." That old adage may indeed be true, and that's what makes Big League pitching so valuable. With 30 Major League clubs, and fifth starters the modern day norm, many pitchers in the game today would have never made the grade in decades past.

That's why teams covet good pitchers, both young and old. Young guys are often cheaper and have less "mileage" on their throwing arms. The downside is that they are less experienced than older, more seasoned veterans.

Mike Timlin is very experienced; the 42-year-old reliever is the active leader among major league pitchers, with 1,011 appearances to start the season.

But Timlin, as would be expected, has become more susceptible to injury as he's gotten older. Timlin had been healthy since 2001, when he went on the DL because of knee surgery. But he's now been on the DL four times since the start of the 2006 season, when he was sidelined with a strained shoulder. Then he opened 2007 on the DL with a strained oblique muscle, and later went back on the DL with shoulder tendinitis. Those injuries limited him to 50 appearances last season. And Timlin missed the first nine games of this season with a lacerated ring finger on his pitching hand.

The rust showed immediately upon return last weekend; Timlin gave up home runs to the first batter he faced both Friday night and Sunday night against the Yankees. In each case, it was Jason Giambi, who had not hit a home run against anyone else this season After Giambi's home run Sunday, Jose Molina and Melky Cabrera singled, making opposing hitters 5 for 5 against Timlin in 2008. It was not the kind of return the veteran pitcher had planned.

But Timlin bounced back last night, pitching a 1-2-3 eighth, earning the win against Cleveland. Yet he is 42, with a history of injuries -- the shoulder issues being the most troubling.

To make room Timlin on the 25-man roster, the Red Sox designated 34-year-old righty Bryan Corey for assignment. Kyle Snyder had previously been designated to make room for the returning Josh Beckett. Both pitchers are younger and healthier than Timlin. But neither was consistent.

Why weren't Snyder and Corey just sent down to Pawtucket? They were out of options.

Each player can be optioned three times. One option is expended per year, regardless of how many times the player goes back and forth from Pawtucket. After three seasons of being called up and sent down, he is out of options and can no longer be returned to the minors without first clearing waivers. That means every other team in the major leagues has a chance to claim him for a nominal waiver fee.

The Sox ran into that same problem with 27-year-old, lefty-reliever Craig Breslow, who was out of options and subsequently designated for assignment at the end of Spring Training. The Indians promptly claimed Breslow and he is now on their big league roster.

But the 30-year-old Snyder was not claimed by another team. He cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple A Pawtucket. And so far Corey has elicited little interest from other clubs either. Since pitching is at such a premium, why aren't teams more interested in Snyder and Corey? The simple answer is that they are viewed as fringe players by other clubs, who would be in the same position as the Sox, unable to option the pitchers out if they wanted to send them to the minors. Perhaps Corey could find his way back to Pawtucket within days as well.

That may be a good thing for the Sox. Having pitchers with Big League experience just a phone call, and 60 miles, away in Pawtucket could prove quite valuable. The season is long and injuries are sure to occur to Sox pitchers. You never know, Mike Timlin could again be one of them.

Another old adage goes like this: "You can never have enough pitching."

WILL THE REAL JON LESTER PLEASE STAND UP?

There's no doubt that the Red Sox organization thinks highly of Jon Lester; he is expected to become one of the anchors of the pitching staff for years to come. In fact, the Sox like him so much they wouldn't pull the trigger on the Johan Santana trade. Some see Lester as a #2 starter, and he has been compared to successful lefties such as Bruce Hurst and even Andy Pettitte.

But with those lofty expectations comes a pressure that could be tough for him to live up to.

It's very early in Lester's young career, and he could certainly live up to the hype and projections that have followed him since his days in the minors. At this point he is just a budding 24-year-old, and perhaps a rising star. The Red Sox have thought so since they selected him in the second round of the 2002 draft.

But Lester continues to have control issues, which have led to far too many base runners and high pitch counts. That, in turn, has ultimately led to short starts, resulting in additional stress on the Sox bullpen. For example, last night Lester only lasted 5 1/3 innings -- as has become customary -- and allowed 9 base runners (5 hits, 4 walks). Base runners usually mean trouble for Lester, and sure enough he allowed 4 earned runs.

Lester can be tantalizingly good, and then frustratingly bad. In fairness, he seems just average, which is better than bad. But he has long been expected to be better than that.

Inconsistency has plagued Lester from the beginning, and belies his 12-4 Big League record. The truth is, Lester has the privilege of playing for the best team in baseball, one with a high-powered offense that can put runs on the board in bunches, and in a hurry. He has clearly benefitted from that run production; his record is much better than it should be, as evidenced by his 4.66 career ERA.

Lester had a WHIP of 1.46 in 2007, and has allowed a staggering 249 base runners in his 160 career innings. You could say he is a victim of his own making. The high pitch counts have often led him to tire early, and he’s averaged just 5.5 innings per start. These statistics are not good, and not the sign of a rising star.

Lester needs to work on his control and lower his walk total; perhaps that would also help lower his ERA and extend his starts. He would be wise to put the ball over the plate and trust his defense. All of his attempts at finesse and painting the corners are not working for him (at least let's hope that's what he's trying -- if not, his control is even worse than it appears). He simply isn't throwing strikes, and to be a successful Big League pitcher he needs to.

So, the jury is still out on Jon Lester. But, as noted, it's still quite early in his career. Maybe he will develop in the next Bruce Hurst for the Red Sox, or even an Andy Pettitte. But at this point all of that seems like too much hype; the expectations should be much more realistic for him. He will continue to frustrate and to tantalize. At times he will look like an All Star, or even an ace. At others, he will look like he still belongs in Triple A.

Get used to it.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

AT LAST, PERHAPS, ALL IS FORGIVEN

BUCKNER'S OVATION HIGHLIGHTS MAGICAL DAY AT FENWAY

The Red Sox produced yet another memorable Opening Day celebration at Fenway Park on Tuesday. The festivities were filled with with many nice elements, such as having members of the Celtics, Bruins and Patriots Championship teams in attendance.

Seeing little old Johnny Pesky raise the Championship Flag was a heart-warming experience and brought a tear to my eye. The man is the living embodiment of the Red Sox and he lives -- perhaps quite literally -- for the team and his place on it. His presence and participation made for some very special moments on a truly special afternoon.

Having Bill Buckner throw out the first pitch was a wonderful surprise and another touching moment. In fact, the standing ovation he received was a highlight on a day that was filled with them.

Buckner's life has probably been a living hell for the past 20-plus years and hopefully his appearance -- and the subsequent fan reaction -- finally puts to rest whatever demons may have haunted him all this time. Billy Buck was terrific hitter, who batted .300 or better eight times in his fine career. That is largely forgotten in the shadow of "The Error" in Game 6.

But there was plenty of blame to go around on that evening in late October of 1986; Calvin Shiraldi, Bob Stanley and Buckner all played critical roles in the Sox' tortuous meltdown.

The infamous ground ball that eluded Buckner was so routine; he would have easily made the play on a thousand other occasions. Yes, he should have fielded it cleanly because it was just a "slow roller." That's what left everyone in such a state of disbelief and disappointment. But Buckner was gimpy, on bad ankles (in high-tops, no less!) and probably shouldn't have been in the game in those crucial late innings anyway.

It can never be forgotten that the Sox were just one strike away from a Championship. Buckner's error was simply the most glaring, and therefore most memorable, mishap.

But that now seems like ancient history, and all has been forgiven -- if not forgotten. Two World Series Championships in four years will induce that sort of amnesia. Perhaps time heals all wounds, but there's no doubt that the World Series trophies and flags have done their part as well. They are a soothing balm for the long-tortured psyches and souls of millions of Red Sox fans old enough to remember the annual heart breaks.

Buckner clearly looked touched by the response of the Fenway crowd, as evidenced by the tears he wiped from his eyes. I don't think anyone watching could help but feel happy for him. It was courageous for him to show up, and a very classy gesture for the organization to have extended the invitation in the first place.

Perhaps the Red Sox World Series tragedy of 1986 is finally over and all has been forgiven. Thank goodness, and good riddance to those ghosts. It's as if an exorcism was performed on the Fenway field nearly 22 years later. Better late than never.

A fitting moment on a day of jubilation, celebration and, perhaps, forgiveness.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

YOUK ETCHES NAME IN RECORD BOOKS

The Gold Glove Award was first presented in 1957 to honor the best fielders in each league at their positions.

When you think of greatest defensive first baseman since that time, the names that come to mind are a who's who of baseball greats; Keith Hernandez - 11 Gold Glove Awards, Don Mattingly - 9 Gold Gloves, George Scott - 8 Gold Gloves, Vic Power - 7 Gold Gloves, and Bill White - 7 Gold Gloves. Wes Parker and JT Snow each won six awards, and no other player has won as many. So it is an elite and distinctive list of relatively few names.

So who would have guessed that a converted third baseman would surpass, in some way, these all time greats?

That's just what happened yesterday when Kevin Youkilis put his name in the record books and made history.

The Red Sox defensive whiz set the major league record for consecutive errorless games by a first baseman during the Red Sox 5-0 victory over Oakland.

Youkilis played his 194th consecutive mistake-free game at first base to break Steve Garvey’s record for errorless games at their position. Garvey set the record with San Diego from June 1983 - April 1985. During his esteemed career, Garvey won 4 Gold Glove Awards.

Showing a true measure of class, the A’s gave first base to Youkilis in appreciation. After the game, Youkilis' teammates signed the base in the clubhouse in recognition of his accomplishment. The ball used on his final putout was sent to the Hall of Fame.

"I thank the Oakland A's for giving me the base, just as a memory to keep around and have something cool to have in the collection," Youkilis said.“It’s an achievement you never set out to do, but it’s a great honor."

Last year, after just two season at first, Youkilis was recognized for his defensive prowess by winning his first Gold Glove Award. It isn't hard to imagine that it could be the first of many.

The 29-year-old first baseman posted a .995 fielding percentage in 2006 and followed that with a perfect .1000 last year, due to his flawless fielding.

The streak, which began on July 5, 2006, has stretched through parts of three seasons.

When it will end is anybody's guess. But in the meantime Youkilis, a sort of human vacuum at first, will carry on with the hope of remaining mistake free. That's not to extend his own mark, but because every out counts and could be the difference between winning and losing.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

AN UNEVEN - BUT WINNING -- START

It was a day of firsts.

The Red Sox won their first extra-inning affair in 108 season openers. It was only the fifth time the Sox have gone into extra innings on Opening Day, all since 1966.

The storied franchise was playing its first ever regular-season game outside of North America.

And the game was the earliest regular season opener in big-league history.

It was a contest full of high and lows, ebbs and flows, and exchanging leads.

Starter Daisuke Matsuzaka didn't look particularly sharp, which perhaps should have been expected considering that the Sox would normally still be in Spring training at this point.

Dice-K threw a staggering 30 pitches in each of the first two innings, while issuing four walks and hitting one batter. The Japanese cult-hero was done after just five innings, having thrown 95 pitches. But he allowed just two hits, including a home run, and struck out six, to go along with the five walks. The high pitch count was an eerie reminder of his troubles last year.

But Dice-K wasn't the only Sox pitcher who still looked to be in pre-season form.

Kyle Snyder relieved Dice-K in the sixth, entering with a 3-2 lead. But he surrendered that lead after facing just two batters, when third baseman Jack Hannahan hit a two-run homer off him.

And Jonathan Papelbon also had a shaky outing, giving up a run on three hits and a walk, en route to his first save of the season.

Matsuzaka, in a poster-sized message to his fans for the Japanese sports daily, Sankei Sports, wrote in English -- World Series repeat. Cy Young Award. Boston Red Sox -- then signed his name, number and the date.

Those are incredibly bold predictions that will prove very difficult to back up. Hopefully Dice-K won't regret his words at the end of the season. A Cy Young Award? Really? And the World Series prophecy will likely be bulletin board inspiration for every team the Sox face this year -- as if the defending Champs really needed an additional bulls eye on their backs.

The Sox were reminded of just how much depth they have after rookie Brandon Moss, who was to start the season in Pawtucket, rallied the team more than once.

Because of their early season opener, the Sox were allowed to bring more than the standard 25-man roster to Japan. And that was a good thing for the Olde Towne Team. JD Drew ended up with a tight back after running sprints in the outfield just before the game, giving Moss his opportunity. And the 24-year-old made the most of it.

The left-handed hitting outfielder singled home the go-ahead run in a three-run Sox rally in the sixth and then, with the Sox two outs from defeat in the ninth, connected for a two-run shot -- his first major-league home run -- that tied the score at 4.

With starting outfielders Manny Ramirez, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Drew seemingly entrenched at their respective positions, manager Terry Francona is faced with finding playing time for Moss, Bobby Kielty, and incumbent center fielder Coco Crisp.

But the Sox can't, and won't, carry three additional outfielders, and Moss may have just earned himself a roster spot this season. His performance in Tokyo has to reassure management and may only guarantee the departure of Crisp to whomever makes the best bid for him. If the Sox had already planned on moving Crisp, Moss' heroics only served to seal the deal.

Before a trade is commenced, Crisp needs to be healthy and the Sox need to figure out their most urgent need -- perhaps starting pitching? Of course they could hold onto Crisp until the trade deadline when his value could increase substantially. But Moss made a strong case for himself that he is ready to play in the Bigs right now.

The other promising news was the play of Ramirez, who went 2-5, with two doubles and four RBI. Unlike the Sox pitchers today, Ramirez looked to be in mid-season form and could be well on his way to another banner year.

Manny, who will be 36 in May, is in a contract year and wants to show the Sox that he is worth every penny of the two-year, $40 million extension the club holds, and that they should waste no time in exercising it.

I, for one, am sold.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

A LACK OF DEPTH CAN LEAD TO A CERTAIN DEATH

A Rotation Once Thought Of As Rock Solid Now Has Nagging Questions

The Red Sox will begin the defense of their World Series Championship on March 24, in Japan, against Oakland.

Due to his recent back injury, Josh Beckett is not likely to be the Opening Day starter. And Daisuke Matsuzaka may pre-occupied with the birth of his child. So as a result, Jon Lester, of all people, is vying for that honor.

That says a lot about the fragility Red Sox starting rotation this year. It is made up of aging veterans like Curt Schilling – who may never pitch again – and Tim Wakefield, plus youngsters like Lester and Clay Buchholz who have never pitched an entire Big League season before.

And so, with Schilling out indefinitely, Dice-K tied up, and Beckett unlikely to be ready on Opening Day, the Sox are considering the 24-year-old Lester for the roll.

Sure, he won the deciding game of the World Series last season and is a sparkling 11-2 in his brief career. But that career amounts to just 26 starts and 144 innings over two partial seasons. He’s never started more than 15 games in either of those seasons, a total he could reach by the All Star break this year. You could say he’s still a bit green.

The Sox believe in Lester so much that they didn’t feel compelled to complete the proposed Johan Santana trade. They think Lester could develop into their version of Andy Pettitte. Another Bruce Hurst would be just fine. After the ALCS, the Cleveland front office, coaches, and player-personnel people had a meeting and it was unanimously agreed that after Josh Beckett, the best starting pitcher on the Red Sox was Lester.

However, Lester has had control issues, which have led to far too many base runners and high pitch counts. That, in turn, has ultimately led to short starts, resulting in additional stress on the Sox bullpen. Lester had a WHIP of 1.46 in 2007. And in his 144 career innings, he has allowed a staggering 226 base runners. You could say he is a victim of his own making. The high pitch counts have often led him to tire early, and he’s averaged just 5.8 innings per start.

But the Sox are in the position of considering Lester for the Opening Day spot – at least in part – because they intended to go into the season with two 40-plus starters in the rotation. So, it’s certainly advisable for them to blend the young players into their roster of veterans. According to ESPN.com, their average age of 29.7 on the 40-man roster makes them the oldest team in the majors. However, young and inexperienced pitchers can present their own unique set of issues; they often hit the wall in the second half.

Whether it’s the veterans or the young guys, injuries to pitchers have to be expected. Last season, the Sox used nine starting pitchers. They used 14 in 2006, and 10 in 2005. The older the rotation, the greater the risk becomes.

For my money, Schilling has thrown his last effective pitch. Having studied anatomy and being pretty familiar with the shoulder structure, I’d say Schilling's injury is disastrous – especially given his age. He has two, perhaps even three, separate injuries to that throwing shoulder – a torn biceps tendon, a partially torn rotator cuff, and possibly a torn labrum as well.

My educated guess is that Schilling is done. I'd be amazed if he pitches again. The human body simply doesn't heal very well after the age of 40. A young kid would have a tough enough time returning to pitch after these injuries. And surgery could put him on the shelf for the better part of a year. That's why the Sox balked at that option. They're hoping he can contribute in some meaningful way this year. But don't count on it.

All that talk about a six-man rotation has long since been forgotten. Now the question is who the fifth starter will be, and who makes the rotation out of Spring Training.

Don’t be the least bit surprised if wunderkind Clay Buccholz starts the season at Pawtucket and Bartolo Colon gets the fifth spot in the rotation. This would make sense for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, Buccholz isn’t ready for 200 innings or 30-plus starts this season. The Sox would rather have him strong and still capable at the end of the season, with the playoffs approaching, than the opposite. They can monitor and control his innings and pitch counts much more effectively at the Triple A level than in the Majors. That sort of organizational oversight could make him a helpful second half call-up.

Secondly, the Sox aren’t sure what’s left in Colon’s tank, if he can still pitch effectively, or how long he’ll last this season either. The bloated former Cy Young winner looks to be allergic to any kind of exercise or conditioning program, and doesn’t appear to ever say no to food. Coming off successive elbow and shoulder injuries, he is surely vulnerable to breaking down. He could start well enough but then quickly fade due to either poor conditioning or another injury. In short, he is an insurance policy against Schilling, and he buys the Sox and Buchholz more time in the minors at the beginning of the year.

Lastly, Colon has an out clause in his contract and could exercise it if he doesn't make the team out of Spring Training, or some other point early in the season. Buchholz doesn't possess that option.

Colon was perhaps the best option in a field of bad options. At least he was low-cost and therefore low-risk.

Carlos Silva, a second-tier starting pitcher who spent the past four seasons with the Twins, must have held a gun to the head of the Mariners to get his $44 million, four-year contract. How did Silva earn this massive pact? By averaging 12 wins, 193 innings and a 4.42 ERA with the Twins. He was 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA last season. It’s fair to say that $44 million doesn't buy what it used to.

So, the Sox took a flyer on Colon and will hope that the organizational depth of Devern Hansack, David Pauley, Kyle Snyder, and Julian Tavarez will get them through any further injuries or rough patches. That may be wishful thinking since none of them seem to inspire confidence. But Major League fifth starters are pretty weak lot in general and most teams are lucky to have one or two good pitchers.

The Sox will ride Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester and Tim Wakefield and hope for the best from the fifth spot – like everyone else. That may be enough to win the division once again and earn yet another playoff birth.

And if things get iffy with the rotation at any point this season, Coco Crisp could serve as a valuable trade chip.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

SANTANA TICKET VERY EXPENSIVE

Minnesota's asking price for Johan Santana is absurd. The Twins want a king's ransom for what is undoubtedly an outstanding pitcher, but the combination of Coco Crisp and Jon Lester should be enough to get the deal done.

Asking for Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson and/or Michael Bowden is asking way too much. Unless the Twins are willing to include Joe Nathan, the Red Sox should just walk away now -- and quickly.

The Red Sox are returning their entire pitching staff – the one that just won the World Series -- complete and intact. And they will be adding Clay Buchholz to that rotation. What more do they need?

Buccholz is more than just a top prospect. The kid already has a no-hitter under his belt and is no longer the best kept secret in the Red Sox farm system. Everyone in the game now knows just how good this kid is.

On top of that, Lester will be entering his first full season in the Majors in 2008. Lester didn't pitch in his first game this year until July 23 and made just 11 starts. Next year he figures to make as many as 30 starts. Lester went 4-0 in 2007 and is 11-2 in his brief career. He is a budding young lefty, and perhaps a rising star. The Red Sox have thought so since they selected him in the second round of the 2002 draft. Yes, he needs to work on his control and lower his walk total; perhaps that would also help lower the 4.68 ERA he has amassed over parts of the past two seasons.

Most importantly, over the better part of the next decade Lester and Buchholz -- combined -- won’t cost the Red Sox the $25 million annual salary that Santana and his agent expect to command.

Indeed, Santana is a bona fide #1 starter. Most informed observers consider him to be among the top five pitchers in the game today. Many argue that he is among the top three, and others contend that he is the very best.

Check out this career stat line: 7.3H/9 - 9.5K/9 - 3.8K:BB - 2.5BB/9 - 1.0HR/9

Impressive stuff, no doubt.

The power pitching lefty is a career 93-44 with a 3.22 ERA. By the age of 27 he had won two Cy Young Awards, and will be just 29 on Opening Day. He has been dependable and injury-free to this point, but there are concerns.

Though he has thrown a relatively limited 1308 2/3 innings during his brief Major League career, most of them have come in the past four seasons, when he became a full-time starter. In that span, Santana has pitched 912 1/3 innings, an average of 228 innings each year. Some think that workload is catching up to him.

Over the last three years, Santana’s base runners per nine innings, HR allowed, and BB/K ratio have all been trending upward. And his innings per start have been in decline in that span, down from 7 in 20005 to 6.6 this season. What’s more, this year he allowed an AL-high 33 home runs, and his 1.073 WHIP was his highest since '03.

Santana has won 20 games just once. And he is just 1-3 in five post-season starts, with a 3.97 ERA -- three-quarters of a run higher than his regular season average.

All that aside, there is a reasonable concern about giving $25 million annually to a player who starts just once every five days. And how would this affect Josh Beckett, the team’s #1 starter, and undeniable stud, who is signed to a relatively modest long-term contract? Beckett is arguably the best playoff pitcher of his generation and he would be earning about half of Santana’s annual salary.

Over the past few seasons, the Red Sox and Yankees have competed fiercely over free agent pitchers like Jose Contreras, Javier Vazquez, and Carl Pavano. The Yankees won these battles but ultimately lost the war because of them. In fact, the Yanks haven’t had much success after successfully obtaining other highly-coveted pitchers as well; Jeff Weaver, Randy Johnson, and Jared Wright are fine examples.

The Red Sox may be simply bidding up the price on Santana so that the Yankees are forced to buy high. The Sox would love to see the Yankees part with Joba Chamberlain or Phillip Hughes. It would continue their past trend of giving up on young, homegrown talent in lieu of expensive free agents. It hasn’t worked so far and has only lead to repeated frustration and a bloated payroll – the largest in pro sports.

There is no denying Santana’s greatness, or that he is currently in his prime. Even though his 2007 campaign was considered an “off year” by many -- due to his 15-13 record and 3.33 ERA, his highest since 2001 – Santana was still quite good. He led the league in WHIP, was 3rd in H/9, 3rd in K/9, 2nd in K.

The hard-throwing lefty would represent an immediate upgrade to the Sox rotation. He would certainly be superior to Lester or Buchholz in 2008. But beyond that, who knows? And it would come at an enormous cost – reportedly $120-$150 million over six years.

The Red Sox will need to replace both Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield after next season, and are perfectly poised to do so right now with Buchholz and Lester. And they have Masterson, Bowden and Daniel Bard coming down the pike as well. The pipeline is deep and poised to replenish the rotation over the next few years. These young, homegrown players will give the Red Sox payroll flexibility and allow them to address other needs throughout the lineup and bullpen.

The Sox and Yanks could both call each other’s bluff and hope that Santana is still available on the free agent market at this time next year. According to Ken Rosenthal, major-league sources have indicated that Santana has informed the Twins that he will not waive his no-trade clause during the season, eliminating the possibility of a July 31 non-waiver deadline deal.

The end result would cost some bidder an enormous contract, but without the added cost of prized young players to boot. But such Loto-sized, long-term pacts are certainly risky. Just consider Barry Zito’s $126 million, seven-year deal. Think the Giants would like to take a Mulligan on that one?

Theo Epstein and his staff are constantly trying to negotiate the difficult challenge of playing for this year while planning for the future. Santana would help in the near-term, but his acquisition would create other holes that would need to be filled.

Jed Lowrie is supposed to supplant Julio Lugo in the next year or so, and starting pitching is not an area of need within the organization. There are other needs to address, such as finding a young back-up catcher who can become Jason Varitek’s successor.

Jacoby Ellsbury is the most exciting Sox outfield prospect since Fred Lynn and Jim Rice. No one seems to doubt that he will be an offensive improvement over the disappointing Coco Crisp. Red Sox Nation has already fallen in love with Ellsbury following his brief but exciting late-season appearance and timely playoff success.

Lastly, it is important to consider, as the Red Sox surely are, that in four career games at Fenway Park (three starts), Santana is 1-3 with an eye-popping 6.89 ERA. That’s got to raise eyebrows as well as concerns. In those games he gave up 21 hits and 8 walks in just 15 2/3 innings.

The Twins have a highly coveted star pitcher which puts them in the diver’s seat. But that sense can lead to hubris, as is the case right now. GM Bill Smith is just playing the Red Sox and Yankees against each other in an attempt to drive up the price. But the Yankees have reportedly set a Monday deadline for a deal to take place. The Yanks are said to have offered Melky Cabrerra and Phillip Hughes and plan to stand firm on the offer.

The Red Sox are said to be taking a similar hardline stance, reportedly offering Jacoby Ellsbury in a package. But the caveat is that such a package would exclude Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

The GM meetings are now open for business. As the old saying goes, to the victor goes the spoils. But in such intense and high-stakes negotiations, the Red Sox need to guard against getting a spoiled, rotten deal.

Play for today, plan for tomorrow. A tough balance indeed.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

PITCHING THEN & NOW

Despite retiring in 1911, the legendary Cy Young still holds the major league records of 7,356 innings pitched and 749 complete games.

They don't make 'em like they used to...

Cleveland Indians pitcher C.C. Sabathia won the 2007 A.L. Cy Young Award last week. His biggest edge over his next closest competitor, Josh Beckett, was innings pitched. Sabathia led the Majors with 241 innings.

Gaylord Perry was the last Cleveland Indian to win the Cy Young Award, in 1972. Perry started 40 games (these days most pitchers aspire to 30), had 29 complete games (these days most are lucky to have one or two), went 24-16 with a 1.92 ERA (that's almost unheard of today), and pitched 342 innings (these days most shoot for 200). Perry’s offseason conditioning program consisted of riding a tractor.

What's become of the modern day pitcher? They use sophisticated offseason conditioning programs, yet still need large, expensive bullpen relief cores behind them. That’s because the majority of them can only pitch six or seven innings on most starts – if they’re lucky. These guys don't even come close to the workloads of their predecessors, such as Gaylord Perry.

Roy Halladay led the Majors with seven complete games this season, while Sabathia and Brandon Webb were tied for second at four apiece.

In fact, no pitcher has reached double digits in complete-games since Scott Erickson had 11 for Baltimore in 1998.

From the 1920's through the mid-‘80's, 20-30 complete games a season were commonplace in baseball. No longer.

Most recently, in 1985, Bert Blyleven had 24 complete games for Cleveland and Minnesota. And in 1986 Fernando Valenzuela had 20 for the Dodgers. But no pitcher has reached 20 complete games since then, and it's likely that no one ever will again.

But it’s not just complete games that are lacking in today’s game; it’s the number of starts as well.

In the old days teams went with a four-man rotation. The new, five-man rotations lessen the opportunities for each pitcher. But many wonder why modern pitchers can only last five or six innings before giving way to a reliever. The answer, in part, may be that teams see their young pitchers as fragile investments and treat them as such.

Dontrelle Willis was the only pitcher who made 35 starts in 2007, the first time in a non-strike season that multiple pitchers did not make at least 35 starts. And Sabathia’s 241 innings were an enormous workload by today’s standards.

But a generation ago, such workloads were routine. Blyleven, who pitched from 1970-1992, exceeded 35 starts in a season nine times and threw 241 innings or more 12 times. Yet, he led the league in innings just twice, and in starts only once. In 1973, Blyleven threw an astounding 325 innings.

Take a look at some Red Sox history. The Sox greats of past generations customarily finished most of the games they started. That is now the rare exception, rather than the rule. The complete game is almost a relic of the past.

They don't make 'em like they used to.....

PITCHER -- STARTS -- COMPLETE GAMES

Cy Young: 297 / 275
Bill Dinneen: 174 / 156
George Winter: 176 / 141
Smokey Joe Wood: 157 / 121
Lefty Grove: 190 / 119
Mel Parnell: 232 / 113
Luis Tiant: 238 / 113
Babe Ruth: 144 / 105

Now compare these “modern” Sox pitchers to those old timers:

Roger Clemens: 382 / 100
Bruce Hurst: 217 / 54
Oil Can Boyd: 145 / 39
Pedro Martinez: 201 / 22
Tim Wakefield: 328 / 22

Part of the blame has to lie with the emphasis on throwing heat. Fastball pitchers who can reach the high 90’s are coveted, and many -- like the Tiger’s Joel Zumaya -- end up ruining their arms. Shoulder and elbow injuries -- and subsequent surgeries -- have become commonplace.

The art of pitching seems to have been lost, as young pitchers have been encouraged to try to blow hitters away with the heater.

On the other hand, Greg Maddux has always believed in the value of movement and location above velocity. Maddux has often taken the unorthodox approach of throwing softer when in a jam instead of harder, and it has served him quite well, in terms of longevity and effectiveness.

Maddux has thrown at least 200 innings in every season from 1988 through 2006, with the exception of 2002 when he threw 199 1/3. This year he threw 198. Who would argue with the future Hall of Famer?

Throwing softer and truly pitching -- instead of hurling -- can extend the life of a pitcher. Maddux and fellow forty-something Tom Glavine are prime examples. They're older, but still getting it done.

Both Glavine and Maddux will be back in 2008, fooling batters once again.

Glavine got an $8 million, one-year deal from Atlanta, where he spent the first 16 years of his illustrious career. He declined a one-year, $13 million contract option with the Mets to return to the Braves. Apparently, for Glavine, it's not all about the money. Maddux, meanwhile, signed a $10 million, one-year deal with San Diego.

An interesting note: both will be 42 on or near Opening Day, and both are 300-game winners.

Glavine, who turns 42 on March 25, went 13-8 with a 4.45 ERA in 200 1/3 innings for the Mets last season. Maddux, who turns 42 on April 14, went 14-11 with a 4.14 ERA last season, his first with San Diego.

Glavine is a five-time 20-game winner, a two-time Cy Young Award winner and one of just five lefthanders in Major League history to earn 300 career wins.

His counterpart, Maddux, is also among the 23 pitchers to have won at least 300 games. Maddux is currently ninth on the all-time wins list with 347 victories. His list of accomplishments is even more amazing: the first pitcher in Major League history to win the Cy Young Award for four consecutive years (1992-1995); the only pitcher in the Major Leagues to have 20 consecutive seasons with at least 10 wins; the only pitcher in MLB history to win 15 games in 17 consecutive seasons; the winningest pitcher in both the 1990's and 2000's; just the thirteenth member of the 3,000 strikeout club and only the ninth pitcher with both 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts.

Pitching coaches at the Little League, high school and college levels, as well as management at the big league level should take notice. They should use Glavine and Maddux as examples of longevity and success. This season, Glavine threw 200 1/3 innings at the age of 41, while Maddux threw 198 innings at the same age.

Due to expansion, there are 30 teams today – more than ever before. That means there are also more pitchers than ever before, many of whom wouldn’t have been able to make it to the Big Leagues in decades past. This has weakened the talent pool substantially. With 30 teams having five-man rotations, that means there were at least 150 starting pitchers in the Majors this year – and obviously there were more due to injuries and call ups. Despite this, only 38 pitchers managed to throw at least 200 innings in 2007. This is shameful.

Young pitchers need to forget the heat. They need to work on the craft of pitching. They should learn to use multiple pitches and learn to locate the ball to all four corners of the plate. This will extend careers, extend innings pitched, and diminish the workload on, and necessity of, expensive -- and often useless -- bullpens around the Big Leagues.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

WHEN LESS IS MORE

WE LIKE MIKE AND MIKE LIKES BOSTON. ACCEPTING THE SOX OFFER SHOULD BE A NO-BRAINER FOR LOWELL.

Everyone loves Mike Lowell. We all do; Red Sox Nation, his teammates, Red Sox management, the media -- everyone loves this guy. Even opposing players like and respect him. Why wouldn't they? And other GM's admire him so much that he will be one of the most highly sought after free agents this off-season.

Lowell is a team guy who took the young players -- like Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury -- under his wing and showed them the Big League way. Lowell is a leader in the clubhouse, in the dugout, and on the field. And he is a winner, owning two World Series rings. He is steady, reliable, and a consummate gentleman. He is everything you want in a ballplayer playing on your team.

But he also a free agent who can now lend his services to the highest bidder. And it is important during a multi-million dollar business negotiation -- which this most certainly is -- not to let emotions get in the way and blind one from making good, sound decisions. That's the position the Red Sox must take, and surely are taking.

Lowell had a career year in 2007 with his .324 average, .378 OBP, and 120 RBI. But he will be 34 on Opening Day, and chances are he will never approach numbers like these ever again.

Now, I'm not implying that Lowell will begin a freefall or a precipitous drop-off in production, but I am suggesting that you've seen the best of him and that he will not approach those prodigious numbers again.

Even Sox' stat guru Bill James foresees a drop-off for Lowell next season that would be more more in line with his career numbers -- .282, 17 HR, 81 RBI.

The Sox have offered Lowell a three-year contract of between $12-$15 million annually, which puts the total package at between $36-$45 million.

But what if some other team -- or teams -- offers a guaranteed fourth year, pushing the contract to somewhere between $48-$60 million?

What should the Red Sox do then? Should they lose their minds and match that offer? Or should good sense and judgment prevail, meaning that the Sox would have to look elsewhere for Lowell's replacement?

Who that successor would be in such a scenario is unclear, but there are many suggestions floating around in the Hot Stove rumor mill.

Miguel Cabrerra is continually mentioned, with the stipulation that the Sox would move Kevin Youkilis back to his original third base position. But Cabrerra won't come cheaply in terms of trade compensation or contract demands. Word is that the Nationals asked for both Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buccholz in return. Yeah, right. Like that's gonna happen.

And there's also the possibility of the Sox continuing their in-house youth movement. Chris Carter, the left-handed hitting Pawtucket first baseman who came to the Sox in the Wily Mo Pena deal, is intriguing. Carter is just 25 and hit 19 home runs with 97 RBI in 136 games for Arizona’s Triple-A Tucson team this season. He appears ready for prime time.

Either move would necessitate shifting Youkilis back to third. But where is the wisdom in moving a 28-year-old who just won his first Gold Glove award to another position?

Joe Crede could be had, but that would represent a downgrade. And it's been rumored that Washington's Ryan Zimmerman could be available, but that would be an expensive move. Zimmerman is a rising star and acquiring him would also cost the Sox someone like Jon Lester or Buccholz in a trade.

Whatever the case may be, the Sox likely won't budge much on their offer to Lowell. They have a history of setting a value on a player and not going over it. That's an example of not letting emotions get in the way of sound judgment, and it's served them well in the cases of Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon.

If Lowell were to take a lesser offer from the Red Sox, and forgo a larger offer from another team that made a strong push for him, it would reveal just how much he loves Boston, the Red Sox, and their fans. No agent -- who gets a percentage of his client's contract -- would encourage his client to take a lesser offer. Such a decision would be all about Lowell, his priorities and his wishes.

Players like to say that "it's not about the money," when it's almost always about the money. But how much of a difference would a few million dollars make to a guy who is already a multi-millionaire? It won't change the car he drives, the size of the house he lives in, its location, or the type of yacht he cruises around on during the off-season.

Community must count for something. Liking where you live has to factor into the equation, as do the happiness and wishes of a wife and child. Lowell seems to love Boston, and Boston surely loves him. Playing on a reigning World Series champion and perennial contender has to count too.

Making millions of dollars annually, living in Boston, and playing for the Red Sox isn't such a bad deal. There are worse possibilities, aren't there?

And the truth is, Lowell was paid generously -- $9 million, in fact -- for what he did this season. Contracts should be forward looking, not based on what a player did in the past, during his prime. Lowell is not entering his prime. He is either peaking or has done so already. And there is a history of such declines with other great third basemen.

George Brett's production dropped considerably after the age of 36. The same was true of Eddie Mathews, Brooks Robinson and Robin Ventura. Players trail off in their late 30s and the final two years of Lowell's deal have to be of concern.

Let's hope that sanity prevails and that Lowell accepts the Red Sox' generous three-year offer. This is one of those situations that seems to be good for everyone involved.

Yes, this will be the last long-term deal that Lowell will sign, but he has been compensated quite generously in his career and this contract amounts to a considerable pay raise. He and the Red Sox are a perfect fit, and it's likely that greener pastures are not to be found elsewhere.

The Sox are an excellent team with an ideal blend of veterans and youth. They have an excellent management team and farm system, and should contend for the foreseeable future.

This should be a no-brainer for Lowell. A fourth year somewhere else won't amount to a better deal. Staying with the Red Sox is the classic example of less being more.


Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

STAY AWAY FROM "THE COOLER"

Signing A-Rod Makes No Sense

Adding Alex Rodriguez to the mix makes no sense for the Red Sox.

Firstly, A-Rod is "The Cooler." Wherever he goes, his teams under-perform. And when he leaves they usually get better.

Case in point; in 2000, his final year with Seattle, the Mariners went 91-71 and finished 2nd in the AL West. The following year, after A-Rod had exited as a free agent, the Mariners had the best record in baseball and won a record-tying 116 games without him.

From A-Rod's rookie season in 1996 -- covering five full years -- the Mariners reached the playoffs twice. They won the AL West in 1997 but were defeated by Baltimore in the ALDS, 3 games to 1. Then they won the Wild Card in 2000, but lost to the Yankees in six games in the ALCS.

During that off-season, A-Rod signed his record-setting free agent contract with the Texas Rangers, joining a team that had finished 4th in the AL West with an inverse 71-91 record to the Mariners 91-71.

With the addition of their high-priced superstar in 2001, Texas improved by a mere two games, going 73-89, once again finishing 4th in the AL West. In 2002, the Rangers again finished in 4th place, going 72-90. And finally, in 2003, the Rangers yet again finished in 4th place, at 71-91.

It should be noted that there are only four teams in the AL West. So, for three consecutive years with A-Rod, the Rangers finished in last place -- exactly where they finished before he joined them in 2000.

Then A-Rod went to the Yankees via trade. And what happened to Texas? They improved by 18 wins that year, going 89-73 -- their first winning campaign in six seasons. And of course, the Yankees never made it to the World Series with A-Rod, despite their rather massive investment.

So how was A-Rod worth a 10-year, $252 million dollar contract? Quite simply, he wasn't. So how does Scott Boras possibly think that his star third baseman is worth even more now? Only he knows. If the uber-agent really is seeking a $350 million contract for his client, there's a good chance that neither the Red Sox, nor anyone else, will enter into serious negotiations with him.

Most teams don't like Boras. And most people don't like A-Rod. The man is a chemistry killer, and chemistry is what helped the Red Sox win each of their last two Championships. There have long been rumors that A-Rod rubs his teammates the wrong way. Derek Jeter tired of his act very quickly in New York, and none of his teammates ever truly rallied to support him when the heat was on. At the least, A-Rod's teammates have to be envious of his enormous contract. What has he done to deserve it? The playoffs are money time and his track record in those critical situations is rather lackluster; 39 games, .279 average, 7 homers, 17 RBI, 38 strike outs.

My bet is that Boras and A-Rod will surprised by the lack of interest at their asking price. They'll have to come down on either the years or the money. The stark reality for "Team A-Rod/Boras" is that only a handful of teams could possibly afford such an exorbitant contract. And it makes you wonder if either the player or agent ever asked himself why anyone of them would eat up such an enormous amount of payroll on one player?

A-Rod is 32. The Red Sox don't want him -- or any other player -- under contract for 10 or 12 years. Who does? For any deal to work out, A-Rod and Boras would have to come down substantially on the contract length, and thereby its overall cost. Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal suggested that perhaps the Red Sox can persuade A-Rod to take a shorter deal that would allow him to re-enter the free-agent market just as he is closing in on Barry Bonds' home-run record. Five years, $150 million, plus option years and voidable years might be workable to both sides.

Boras can come with all his charts, graphs and statistics, but one thing is for certain; the Red Sox's revenues can't go much higher by adding A-Rod. There are no more seats to sell. Subscriptions to NESN aren't likely to increase and neither are ratings. If anything, A-Rod will only drain resources and make it that much more difficult to address other needs as they arise.

The Red Sox won two World Series without A-Rod over the last four years, while the Yankees won none with him. Even if his contract demands are dropped considerably, who really wants "The Cooler" on their team?

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

LET THE HOT STOVE BEGIN!!

IT'S TIME TO LOOK AHEAD. AN OFF-SEASON PREVIEW

As good as the 2007 Red Sox were, changes will be made. Some players are past their prime (Curt Schilling), some youngsters cannot be ignored (Jacoby Ellsbury), and some free agents may be too expensive, or require too long of a commitment (Mike Lowell).

Let’s start with Schilling.

Perhaps Schilling saw the writing on the wall at the end of the regular season when he told the Providence Journal that his house in Medfield would be on the market. That signaled he was pretty sure his days in Boston were numbered.

That was a good assumption. These days, Schilling is a five or six inning pitcher – at best. He wants a one-year deal at $13 million, the same figure he made this season. Sure, there is a thin free agent market this year, but despite this Schilling is no longer worth that kind of money.

Over the last three seasons he's 31-23 - an average of 10-8 each year. In that span his ERA is 4.54. He is clearly in decline, and Clay Buchholz will get his spot in the rotation next year.

Schilling knows this, and that’s why he said goodbye to his teammates after the World Series. He'll be elsewhere next season, and that's why his house is for sale.

For what it's worth, Schilling would like to finish his career with the team that drafted him and says the window for negotiating with the Red Sox will be the first 15 days after the World Series. Apparently, he's already begun initial discussions with three teams.

Given the limited free agent pitching options available, (Freddy Garcia, Tom Glavine, Bartolo Colon, Livan Hernandez, Steve Trachsel), Schilling will certainly draw interest. He brings a great resume and has presence on the mound, as well as in the dugout. He could help instill confidence and pitching smarts in a staff of young, inexperienced pitchers. Perhaps he could even help a veteran team.

The question is how much he has left in the tank. His last six regular season starts resulted a 2-3 record. But his 2.79 ERA over that span, combined with strong October performances, virtually guarantees that he'll have suitors.

The soon-to-be 41-year-old righty is 11-2 lifetime in 19 postseason starts, with a 2.23 ERA. He's been a World Series MVP. He's started a Game 7 in the World Series. He's won elimination games and series clinchers. He will forever be remembered for the bloody sock and, especially to Sox fans, for helping to defeat the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS and then the Cardinals in the World Series for the team's first Championship in 86 years. For that, all of Red Sox Nation thanks you, Curt, and will be forever grateful.

And then there's the matter of Mike Lowell, one of the most popular players on the team.

Not only was Lowell the World Series MVP, but he was arguably the team's 2007 MVP as well. After career highs in average (.324), on-base percentage (.378) hits (191), and RBI (120), the third baseman is expecting a significant raise.

Lowell will be 34 on opening day and will likely be signing his last long-term deal. He'll be looking for at least a three-year deal and if anyone -- such as the Yankees -- offers four, he may bite.

A fantastic fielder and team leader who speaks both English and Spanish, Lowell will surely attract interest on the open market. However, the Red Sox are hesitant to enter into contract with players past the age of 35.

One possibility; the Sox could offer Lowell a two-year deal with a third year option that automatically vests if certain performance incentives are reached.

For example, if Lowell hits at least .300, has at least 90 RBI, or at least 20 home runs in the second year, the third year is guaranteed. This could make sense for both sides. The Sox aren't concerned so much with having 36-year-old under contract as they in having a declining player under contract. And if Lowell is confident in his abilities, his love for the Red Sox and Fenway Park may keep him in town. Lowell was tailored made for Fenway, hitting 97 points higher, and with twice as many homers, at home as on the road.

Dark horse scenario; Kevin Youkilis moves back to third and Pawtucket first baseman Chris Carter assumes first base. Carter came over in the Wily Mo Pena deal and was in the top five in batting average and top 10 in homers in the Pacific Coast League as a member of the Diamondbacks Triple A affiliate this year. He looks like the real deal.

Expect a new face in center next season. Jacoby Ellsbury batted .360 during the playoffs, third highest on the team. Meanwhile, incumbent center fielder Coco Crisp batted just .188, lowest on the team.

Crisp, who turned 28 on Thursday, had another disappointing year at the plate, batting just .268 with a .330 OBP. During his four years with Cleveland his average improved every year, culminating with a .300 average in his final year – 2005.

Though never a power hitter, his home run total has been halved since joining the Red Sox. And he had a career high in strikeouts this year. All of this points to the obvious; Crisp has been in decline offensively for two consecutive years.

Meanwhile, the scouting reports on Ellsbury have been excellent since he was drafted. He is going to be a star. That means that Coco's days are numbered. The question is this; do the Sox trade him this winter, or at the break next season?

The fact that he hasn't hit a lick in two straight seasons will hurt Crisp’s trade value. However, his stellar defense should earn him a Gold Glove (if there's any justice), and that should fetch a decent return in any trade. Scheduled to make an average of $5.25 million over the next two seasons, Crisp should be viewed as a value by most teams.

Like many teams, the Red Sox also need to address the position of catcher. This is an area of weakness across the minor leagues and internationally.

The Sox need to find someone who can help ease the burden on an aging Jason Varitek in order to help extend the Captain's career, and his effectiveness at season's end. Varitek will be 36 in April and is entering the final year of the four-year contract he signed following the 2004 season.

The 37-year-old Doug Mirabelli is not the answer. Though he effectively catches Tim Wakefield's elusive knuckleball, Mirabelli is older than Varitek and is an offensive liability, hitting just .202 this year -- well below his weight.

The soon-to-be-30-year-old Kevin Cash is younger, but he too is an ineffective hitter. In 176 at-bats in Pawtucket this season, he hit just .176, and then in 12 games with Red Sox just .111.

Knowing this was an area that needed to be addressed, the Sox traded David Wells to San Diego for Triple A catcher George Kottaras in 2006. But the 24-year-old Canadian hit just .241 in nearly 300 at bats and is not a power threat. Clearly he needs more time to develop and doesn't appear to part of the solution for 2008. The Sox will have to look elsewhere for help.

The position of shortstop has been a bit of a merry-go-round for the Red Sox these last few years, going from Nomar, to O-Cab, to Gonzo, to Lugo. Makes you wish the Sox had simply re-signed Orlando Cabrerra after the 2004 season, doesn't it?

Last winter, the Red Sox let shortstop Alex Gozalez walk without even making him a contract offer. After watching him play for just one year, the Sox decided that they wanted to go in a different direction -- namely one that would provide them more offense. So the defensive wizard signed with the Reds and the Sox signed Julio Lugo in his stead.

But things didn't turn out as planned. Lugo largely fizzled at the plate in Boston while Gonzalez thrived in Cincinnati.

Playing in just 110 games, with less than 400 plate appearances, Gonzalez hit 16 homers and 55 RBI, while hitting .272 with a .325 OBP. However, never the speedster, Gonzalez had no stolen bases.

Meanwhile, back in Boston, Lugo was a bit of a mixed bag, hitting just .237 with 8 homers. But he also drove in 73 RBI (more than a certain shortstop who plays for the Yankees) and stole 33 bases, which lead the team.

Lugo was steady and fairly reliable in the field, playing in 147 games and making 19 errors. But the normally sure-handed Gonzalez made 16 errors in far fewer games for the Reds.

Though his contract is hard to figure, or justify, Lugo is merely a stopgap. The Red Sox are grooming one of their top prospects to assume the shortstop position in the not-so-distant future.

Jed Lowrie hit .300 in 160 at-bats for Pawtucket this season, with a .356 OBP. Expect to see him at mid-season or, at the latest, as a September call-up. Lugo is scheduled to make $9 million annually over the next three seasons and will eventually be moved to make room for Lowrie. It's only a matter of when.

Eric Hinske is no longer under contract. Though a versatile fielder, after hitting just .204 this year in limited at-bats, and being a career .255 hitter who's been in decline since winning Rookie of the Year in 2002, it's a safe bet he won't be back.

Bobby Kielty, on the other hand, is a switch hitter who made a name for himself in Boston with his critical home run in Game 4 of the World Series. He could be the fourth outfielder in 2008.

Despite his Grand Slam in Game 6 of the ALCS, many fans would still like to bid farewell to JD Drew and his $14 million per year contract. Don't count on it. Drew's offensive struggles are no secret and there's no market for such an overpaid, underachieving player. Drew had never done anything to warrant such a massive long-term deal in the first place, and this season only diminished his value. The Red Sox would likely have to eat half his salary in any deal -- an unsavory choice. So expect him back next year and hope for something better.

Here's a sobering thought; does anyone doubt that either Jacoby Ellsbury, David Murphy or Brandon Moss couldn’t have matched Drew's 11 home runs, 64 RBI and .270 average this past year? One way or another, it would have come at a far lesser expense.

Tim Wakefield will be back for yet another go-around as the Sox elder statesman. Wakefield will still be pitching when Jon Lester retires someday. Julian Tavarez will also be back. Tavarez is very versatile and is a complete team player. Whatever it takes to win, he'll do it. By all accounts, he is a great and selfless teammate. Mike Timlin, if healthy, can still pitch. He'll be 42 on opening day, but is only called upon to pitch one inning at a time. His sinker still sinks and he is a leader with four World Series rings. The head of the bullpen core will back for one more year.

And finally, as for Alex Rodriguez finally coming to Boston…. don’t hold your breath. My bet is that the market for A-Rod will be thin at Scott Boras’ absurd asking price, and he may be left without a suitor. That price could be as high as $300 million, another all-time high for A-Rod and Boras.

But here’s the problem; seven major league franchises are worth less than $300 million, according to April's Forbes. No player is worth that much – especially one with A-Rod’s playoff resume.

Rodriguez may end up going back to the Yanks and groveling for a contract. Who cares about his MVPs when he's the LVP in the playoffs -- when it really matters. Don’t lose sleep over this one, Sox fans.

So there you have it – some changes that will, and won’t, take place this off-season.

The GM Meetings begin this weekend in Orlando. The Hot Stove is just starting to heat up.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.