SCHILLING'S START HAS IMPORTANT RAMIFICATIONS

The Red Sox made it look so easy last night. Why? Two reasons; 1.) Josh Beckett 2.) Every batter in the starting lineup had at least one hit, and every one of them -- with the exception of Mike Lowell -- had at least one RBI. In fact, the Red Sox scored more runs than any team in the first game of a World Series. In short, it was a complete team effort.

Firing on all cylinders, the Red Sox derailed the Rockies playoff juggernaut. Colorado had been undefeated in the playoffs, sweeping two consecutive series. Seven games, seven wins. Only the '76 Reds had ever started the post-season with such a streak.

But how good are the Rockies? They won 90 games this season -- most in team history -- yet squeaked into the playoffs simply because the Padres lost their final two games of the season. San Diego choked. Colorado got a second chance. And they capitalized on it. The Rocks beat San Diego in the 13th inning of a one-game playoff -- on a bad call at the plate -- to win the Wild Card. And let's not forget that with two weeks left in the season, they were in fourth place in the wild-card race.

Sure, coming into Game 1 the Rockies had won 21 of their last 22 games. They had won 10 in row overall, and had lost just once since September 16. Like all successful playoff teams, they got hot -- really hot -- at the right time. And clearly luck had been on their side. But luck and ridiculous winning streaks always run out eventually. No one envisioned the Rockies being in the World Series this year -- probably not even the Rockies themselves. They were an after-thought.

So the Red Sox once again turn to Curt Schilling tonight, for the fourth time this post-season, hoping for more of that old October magic.

"I've spent almost 15 years putting together a résumé in October, and that's become one of the things I've become known by. That's on the line again," Schilling said at the start of the playoffs.

But these days, a Schilling start is like a box of chocolates; you never know what you're gonna get. His season had as many ups and downs as a roller coaster. There was the opening day shellacking he took in Kansas City to the lowly Royals. That immediately raised a red flag; all was not well. But he returned to form and came within one out of a no-hitter in Oakland on June 7. Then came his next start, against the Rockies.

Colorado went 2-1 against the Red Sox this season, outscoring them 20-5 in a June series at Fenway Park. Schilling pitched against them on June 13 and took the loss in a 12-2 beatdown. He lasted just five-plus innings, giving up six runs (five earned) on nine hits. The joy and euphoria of the one-hitter in Oakland was quickly washed away. And it got worse. The 40-year-old righty's next start, on June 18 in Atlanta, was a disaster in which he was roughed up yet again. Even the Braves' hitters knew something was wrong. They weren't facing the dominating Curt Schilling they were used to.

The next day he was on the DL, his season in tatters, his career in jeopardy. Diagnosed with shoulder tendinitis, Schilling remained on the DL from June 19 to August 6. At that point his season appeared over. It was nearly impossible to imagine him pitching in October -- if ever again. Perhaps his illustrious career had finally, unceremoniously, reached its end. How many 40-year-old pitchers bounce back from an injury to their pitching shoulder?

But he managed to return, and finished the season with a less than impressive 9-8 record in 24 starts. Yet he had a very respectable 3.87 ERA. What kind of pitcher was he at this point? Sure the fastball had lost much of its zing, but he could still command his pitches, issuing just 23 walks to his 101 strikeouts this year.

If we've learned anything about Schilling it's this; no one should ever doubt his competitive fire. He is driven to succeed, and to prove himself over and over again -- especially in the post-season.

"I've always been a guy, October wasn't enough. I always had to add a little piece to it," said Schilling. ""I look at October as a way to enhance everything you've ever done."

October is where he's earned his salary, and his reputation as a big game pitcher. Since 1993 he's been consistently great. But now he's nearing 41, and his starts can be erratic. In Game 2 of the ALCS against Cleveland, he was lit up for five runs on nine hits in just 4 2/3 innings. It was ugly.

This is an important game for the Red Sox, as it is for the Rockies. If the Sox win, they can go into Colorado knowing they can close it out at Coors Field. Even if they win just one of three games there, they'll be in the driver's seat and will have to win just one of the final two games at Fenway. Schilling can set up an eventual World Series title with another big performance tonight.

Schilling's start is also important because Daisuke Matsuzaka, who will be going for the Sox in Game 3, has a 7.62 ERA in September and October. He, too, is unpredictable. But if you had to place a bet, at this point you wouldn't count on him to be solid or reliable.

And then there's the fact that Tim Wakefield was left off the World Series roster due to an ailing shoulder. He's been dealing with the problem since the end of the season and was also kept off the roster for the first-round series against the Angels. But one has to wonder if the shoulder is really the issue, or if it's related to the fact that the knuckleball probably won't fare well in the cold, thin, October air at Denver's mile-high altitude? Wakefield had a 4.76 ERA this season. That could be crippling in Denver. And he's only pitched once since September 29, when he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Indians in Game 4 of the ALCS.

As a result, the Red Sox have yet to announce their Game 4 starter. However, Jon Lester threw four simulated innings on Tuesday, likely in anticipation of making that start in Colorado. But you can't help but wonder if the Sox would start Beckett on three days rest in Game 4. It likely depends on how the first three games go. Even if Matsuzaka and Lester were to lose their starts in Colorado, Beckett would be slated to go in Game 5. That would set up Schilling to pitch yet another series-clinching game, this time at Fenway.

All of this illustrates why Schilling's start tonight is so important to the Red Sox. And, of course, this could be his final start in a Boston uniform. If it is, going out with a bang in front of the Fenway faithful, who've lionized him since he arrived four years ago, would be a fitting farewell. And a strong performance would only further cement his legend as one of the game's all-time greatest post-season pitchers.

One way or the other, the Red Sox are the superior team -- with the tougher schedule, in the tougher league, with the tougher lineups -- and should win this Series in six games.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

IT'S THE BIG TIME NOW

JOSH BECKETT STEPPED UP. CURT SCHILLING STEPPED UP. EVEN JD DREW STEPPED UP. NOW IT'S TIME FOR DICE-K TO DO THE SAME.

For a $70 million player to be benched in Games 1 and 5 of the ALCS -- in favor of a reserve player who'd been unconditionally released by the lowly Oakland A's late in the season -- was an indication of just how far JD Drew had fallen. Whatever meager shine was left on Drew's star had, by that point, completely faded. Simply put, the move indicated that Terry Francona had more faith in Bobby Kielty than in JD Drew.

To leave Drew sitting during two ever-so-crucial games made quite a statement. Francona had been Drew's biggest supporter all year long, standing by his right fielder through the worst of times, continuing to bat him fifth when everyone else knew that Mike Lowell was better suited for that role.

Drew was brought to Boston last winter -- along with other high-priced free agents Daisuke Matsuzaka and Julio Lugo -- not to finally supplant the Yankees and win the AL East, or even win the American League Championship Series, but to help the Red Sox win their seventh World Series in franchise history. Management had made it clear during Spring Training; nothing else would do.

But Drew struggled at the plate all year long and his dreadful season had seeped into the post-season. If not for the equally uninspired play of Coco Crisp, it may have cost him his place in the lineup for Game 6. But rookie sensation Jacoby Ellsbury took the place of Crisp instead, leaving Drew an opportunity for heroics. And with one swing of the bat Saturday night, in front of the fans who had desperately looked for a reason to love him all year long, Drew found redemption.

A homer would have been nice. A couple a RBI would have been nice. Anything to show that he had some grit, some desire, some passion -- that he had a pulse -- would have been great. But JD Drew went beyond all possible expectations and hit just the third Grand Slam in Red Sox post-season history.

Terry Francona's belief, encouragement, and patient support had finally paid off.

The grand moment gave Drew some respite from the heat and scrutiny he'd been facing all year long. And it also allowed him a moment of joy and recognition from the Fenway faithful; his first curtain call of the season.

Drew's emergence couldn't have come at a more opportune time for the Red Sox. He now has a five-game hitting streak in the post-season, and Saturday's 3-for-5 effort raised his average to .381 in the playoffs. The Red Sox will be better for it if his hot streak continues on Sunday night.

In Major League history, 65 teams have trailed a best-of-seven series three games to one; only ten have come back to win. The last was the 2004 Boston Red Sox. The 2007 Red Sox are hoping to become the 11th team to accomplish this improbable feat.

The Sox are vying for another World Series berth largely on the merits of Josh Beckett. Coming into Saturday night,, no other Sox starter had made it out of the fifth inning in the ALCS.

But Curt Schilling put an end to that with yet another masterful post-season performance that can be added to his illustrious resume. There is no better big-game pitcher in the modern era. Perhaps none ever. Schilling is now 10-2 in the post-season, and 4-0 in elimination games. In those do-or-die contests, the unflappable veteran has a paltry 1.37 ERA. When it's all on the line, Schilling performs as if he has ice water flowing through his veins. He should been nicknamed the "Iceman" long ago.

But pitching wasn't the Sox' only problem in the ALCS; other than the 2-5 hitters, no one else was producing and someone needed to step up. Drew responded by driving in five runs and scoring two himself. But he wasn't the only previously hibernating bottom of the order hitter to answer the call. Julio Lugo had two RBI and scored a run, and Jacoby Ellsbury also had an RBI and a run scored. The Sox desperately needed those contributions and got them in a critical game.

After hitting into three double plays in Game 2, the Red Sox hit into three more in Game 3. Things were so bad that the Sox had hit into a total of seven double plays in the first three games, the most ever by any team in the first three games of an LCS. And JD Drew had been part of that incompetence. But by the time they had rolled into an LCS-record 11th double play in Game 6, Drew had already put a dagger into the heart of the Indians and such a statistic became a footnote in history made irrelevant by victory.

So now the Red Sox put their fortunes in the hands of Daisuke Matsuzaka, which should raise some concern. In his last 10 starts, including two in the postseason, Matsuzaka is just 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA.

But Matsuzaka now has his own chance at redemption. Though his inaugural season in Boston went better than Drew's, it was still a mixed bag. His problem has been an inability to consistently throw strikes, which has lead to high pitch counts early in his starts.

Case in point; Matsuzaka lasted just 4 2/3 innings in his Game 3 start at Cleveland, yet threw 101 pitches. It was not an isolated event but, rather, part of a trend. The Japanese rookie threw an average of 108.8 pithes per start this season, the most in the Majors.

But throwing strikes shouldn't be too much to expect from a pitcher who had 201 strikeouts in 204 2/3 innings this year. Matsuzaka needs to discover a sense of economy now. He needs to command his pitches and control the strike zone. He cannot issue walks and allow the speedy Cleveland hitters additional opportunities to get on base and potentially score.

Moments like this -- Game 7 of the ALCS -- are exactly why the Red Sox outbid every other Major League team for Matsuzaka's services. He is a high school legend in his native Japan. He's pitched in the Olympics. And he also pitched the clinching game of the World Baseball Classic, where he earned the MVP.

But this is the big time, arguably the biggest game he has ever pitched in. Yes, this is indeed the biggest game of his young life. The heat is on, and it is time for Matsuzaka to rise to the occasion, just as Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, and now even JD Drew, have done before him.

And with that burden rides the Red Sox 2007 season. Their fate isn't entirely in one man's hands, however. The hitters must hit. The big guns always seem to show up, but the 6-9 hitters must continue to contribute tonight as they did in Game 6. And the fielders must play flawless defense in support of Matsuzaka.

That, in fact, may be the key to the game. Matsuzkaka needs to trust his defense and just throw strikes. Pound the strike zone and have faith that it will pay off with a trip to the World Series, Dice-K. That would silence your critics and be a fine way to conclude your first season in Boston, your first season in the Majors, your first season in the big time.

Good luck. We'll all be watching, and hoping, and rooting for you.


Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

MATSUZAKA'S MELTDOWN

Just as he did in his ALDS start against Anaheim (in which gave up three runs on seven hits and three walks), Daisuke Matsuzaka once again lasted just 4 2/3 innings in a playoff start. This time, the Japanese righty allowed eight base runners (six hits and two walks) against the Indians, resulting in four earned runs.

This season Matsuzaka threw an average of 108.7 pitches per start -- the most in baseball. And on Monday night, a high pitch count did him in once again. Though he struck out six batters, Dice-K threw 101 pitches and only 59 were strikes. On numerous occasions he fell behind Cleveland hitters and had three-ball counts too often to be successful. That pushed up his pitch count and lead to his early exit.

Dice-K has a tendency to nibble at the corners too much and look for help from the umpire. He doesn't seem to trust his defense enough to simply throw strikes. Instead, he tries to get big league hitters to chase pitches outside the strike zone. That may have worked early in the season when batters were unfamiliar with him and there was a sense of awe surrounding the Japanese legend. That sense of awe is now gone as hitters have figured him out. Teams have scouting reports on Matsuzaka and know his tendencies. Rather than chase pitches and take the bait on the corners, batters now dare him to throw strikes. And too often he doesn't, or can't.

On the other hand, the overlooked, under-appreciated Jake Westbrook threw a nasty sinkerball for nearly seven innings and stymied the Red Sox. Westbrook got 14 of his 19 outs on groundballs and induced three double plays on soft infield rollers. Before exiting he'd allowed two runs on seven hits and three walks.

Considering the Red Sox' $103 million investment, Matsuzaka was no bargain this year and certainly failed to live up to the enormous hype that preceded his arrival. Perhaps it was inevitable. Before he threw a single pitch in the majors, the recently turned 27-year-old was billed as the "next big thing" -- another Pedro in the making. That's yet to be determined, but the early returns aren't great.

His 15 wins, while impressive for a rookie, were matched by 12 losses. And then there is the real concern; his 4.40 ERA. His season was marked by a series of contrasts, positives and negatives. On the one hand, he struck out 201 batters in 204 2/3 innings. On the other, he allowed 191 hits and 80 walks; that amounts to a staggering 271 baserunners in those 204 2/3 innings. No matter how you slice it, that's not good. It's a problem that needs fixin'.

Last year, Josh Beckett, now the bona fide staff ace, had a similarly disappointing season. In his first season in the AL, Beckett went 16-11 with a 5.01 ERA. Other than the bloated ERA, another concern was the 36 homers he allowed. But this year Beckett more than halved that number, while dropping his ERA to an impressive 3.27. As a further indication of his evolution as an elite AL pitcher, Beckett also cut his walks nearly in half from 74 to 40, and increased his strike out total from 158 to 194.

The moral of the story is that one season is too small a sample to gauge a young pitcher, especially one like Matsuzaka who is not just coming from another league, but another nation with a vastly different culture. Perhaps Dice-K can reinvent himself in the same way that Josh Beckett did this year.

But it would be nice if he found a way to do it before next season. The Red Sox don't have that long to wait. Now down two games to one to the Indians, the Sox need help fast and they need it now.

Matsuzaka may not be done yet. If the Sox are able to find a way to come back and beat Cleveland, it will take better pitching. And it will also mean another playoff start -- in fact a World Series start -- for Dice-K on an even bigger stage. But that's what he was brought to Boston for in the first place; he had a big game resume that said he could be counted on in the big games.

That's a lot of ifs and maybes, but Dice-K still has a chance to play the hero, earn his millions, and live up to all that ridiculous hype before the 2007 season is in the record books.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

PREDICTION: SOX IN SIX

Well, I was wrong and I admit it. In fact, I was wrong on two counts.

First, I said the Red Sox would beat the Angels in four games. Second, I said the Yankees were the best team in the American League. I'm especially glad to have been wrong abut this last proclamation.

Now the Sox and Indians will vie for the AL Pennant, the distinction as the league's best team, and the privilege of playing for a World Series title.

What do the Red Sox have going for them as the ALCS begins? Their big guns are all firing at the same time; Josh Becket, Curt Schilling, Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Ramirez, and David Ortiz all look as fearsome as they do fearless. What's more, the Sox will be be more rested than the Indians. Beckett will have had eight days of rest by the time the AL championship series opens on Friday night.

But let's discuss Schilling for a moment, shall we?

This man has been written off numerous times over the last three seasons -- and for good reason. Since 2005, he has a record of 31-23 -- an average of 10-8 each year -- and a 4.54 ERA during that span.

This season he went a lackluster 9-8, but had a respectable 3.87 ERA. Of greater concern were the 165 hits and 23 walks he allowed in just 151 innings, amounting to a WHIP of 1.25. That's not Schilling-esque. Of equal concern; he only struck out 101 batters in those 165 innings. That's not Schilling-esque either. His Opening Day meltdown was an omen of the struggles he would endure throughout the regular season. And for most of 2007 he clearly looked like a pitcher in decline, one whose best days were long behind him.

Yet, one month shy of his 41st birthday, during the pressure-packed environment of the playoffs, Schilling has once again risen to the occasion, reinventing himself from an imposing power pitcher into a craftsman.

The veteran righty is no longer able to consistently hit 97 mph on the radar gun. Whereas, by his own admission, he once had a fastball that "had seven or eight more miles an hour" on it, he now must paint the corners. And on Sunday, he painted with precision, throwing seven shutout innings in a masterpiece.

Schilling threw 100 pitches, 76 for strikes. Now I'm no mathematician, but I do know that adds up to 76%. The former flamethrower now finds success not by blowing hitters away, but by picking his spots and consistently hitting them. Schilling says he has a "recognition of what I have," meaning he also recognizes what he no longer has. In essence, the diminished velocity may have made him a smarter pitcher.

With Sunday's win, Schilling's postseason record now stands at 9-2 -- the highest winning percentage in playoff history. And his ERA is a mind-blowing 1.93. That's big-time. That's money.

His performance was so good that he will get the Game 2 start in Round 2 with five days of rest. Simply put, he was better than Daisuke Matsuzaka and gives the Red Sox a better chance to win when matched up against the inexperienced Fausto Carmona.

The Sox pitchers held the Angels to just four runs in the ALDS. As unbelievable as it may seem, the Angels scored in just two of the 27 innings. And due to Beckett's complete-game and Schilling's seven strong innings, the bullpen will be well-rested in the ALCS. In fact, the entire team should be well-rested, having four full days off by the time they take the field at Fenway on Friday night.

A perfect example is Papelbon, who's thrown just 1 1/3 innings this postseason. The 26-year-old closer had another outstanding season and is the first Sox reliever to have back-to-back seasons of 28 or more saves. He finished 2006 with 35 saves and had 37 this year. Mentally tough and possessing a composure beyond his years, Papelbon strikes fear in opposing hitters. No batter wants to see Papelbon's fierce scowl looking back at him from atop the mound just sixty feet, six inches away.

Then there's Boston's Dynamic Duo of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, who have clicked at just the right time. The pair accounted for four of the five series homers (Kevin Youkilis had the other).

In the three-game ALDS, Ortiz walked six times while hitting .714 (5-for-7) with two home runs and three RBIs. Ramirez hit .375 (3-for-8), with 2 homers, 3 runs, four RBI, and five walks.

Ortiz now has 10 postseason homers, the most in Red Sox history. Ramirez's 22 postseason home runs put him in a tie with Bernie Williams for the most in Major League history. These two are white hot right now. In fact, to opposing pitchers they're lethal.

Ramirez loves to hit against his former team. Since leaving after the 2000 season, Ramirez has hit .357 against Cleveland, with 15 home runs in 49 regular-season games. This year he hit .417 (10-for-24) with three homers. This will be his first playoff matchup against the Tribe. One thing I was right about; I said he'd get hot in the playoffs and I'm glad to say I was right about that part.

A perfect mix of seasoned veterans and spirited young players, the Red Sox appear highly determined and focused on their mission; winning another World Series title. Timing is everything in baseball, and the Sox have gotten hot at the right time. Fueled by great pitching and solid hitting, the Sox outscored the Indians 19-4 in the ALDS. In simple terms, this team looks scary good right now.

The Sox and Indians shared the league's best record of 96-66, but the Sox won the regular-season series 5-2. This will be the first time they've met in an ALCS.

The Red Sox took the AL East lead on April 18 and never relinquished it, winning their first division title since 1995. They were the picture of consistency in 2007, never losing more than four straight games or winning more than five in a row. That consistency, driven by a steady veteran presence and leadership, will lead them into the World Series for the second time in four years.

Prediction; Sox in six against the Indians.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

PICK THE SOX IN FOUR

The Red Sox will prevail in their five-game series against the Angels in the ALDS. Here's why:

The Angels were just 2-5 at Fenway this year. The Angels' best hitter, Chone Figgins (.330), ended the season 0-for-22 and may be dealing with a recurring wrist injury. Vladimir Guerrero is ailing from an elbow problem, and Gary Matthews has been left off the postseason roster due to an injured knee.

If that's not enough, Game 1 starter John Lackey's career numbers against the Red Sox should encourage Red Sox fans — 1-6 with a 6.24 ERA. This year he was 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA.

The 2007 regular season contests between the two teams broke down this way:

Reds Sox: 6 wins; 6.4 runs per game; .290 team batting average; 9 home runs.
Angels: 4 wins; 4.2 runs per game; .260 team batting average; 7 home runs.

The Angels are a strong hitting team, ranking fourth best in baseball. Only three teams struck out less than the Halos, and they also swiped the third most bases in the majors. And while the Angels scored the sixth-most runs in baseball, they were 28th (out of 30 teams) in homers.

The Sox and Angels were second and third in strikeouts-per-nine-innings. But while the Sox pen had the second best ERA in baseball at 3.14, the Angels pen ranked 20th in the majors at 4.22.

That's just one reason why the Red Sox are a better team than the Angels, who won 94 games.

Tying Cleveland for the best record in the majors, the Red Sox won 96 games en route to their 10th straight winning season. They were fourth in runs, sixth in batting, 15th in stolen bases and 18th in home runs.

Having the AL's best record gives the Sox home field advantage through the ALCS, should they advance that far. That should benefit them to some degree. The Angles were just 2-5 at Fenway this year. On the other hand, the Sox were 1-2 in Anaheim. However, throughout the history of baseball, the home team has won roughly 54 percent of the time, and it's been essentially the same in the playoffs.

Some key players to the Sox postseason success:

Mike Lowell had a career year. His career-best 120 RBI led the team. He also hit .324 and had 21 home runs. As usual, he was steady in the field and made difficult plays look routine. However, he did have a career-high 15 errors after finishing with just six last season.

Dustin Pedroia finished the season with 165 hits, including 39 doubles, and scored 86 runs. But perhaps most impressive was his .3173 batting average -- the highest average ever for a qualifying rookie second baseman. Pedroia just edged Pittsburgh's Jim Viox, who hit .3171 in 1913.

David Ortiz finished with career highs in batting average (.332), on-base percentage (a major-league best .446), doubles (52), and hits (182). He also hit 35 home runs and scored 116 runs.

Manny Ramirez will rise to the occasion in the postseason. Count on it. And if JD Drew and Coco Crisp make even decent contributions, the offense will flourish.

As for pitching, Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon will inspire confidence in their teammates and frustrate opposing hitters. But they cannot do it alone. They will need help from Daisuke Matsuzaka, veteran Curt Schilling, the surprising Hideki Okajima, and a resurgence from Eric Gagne. Since his meltdown in Toronto on September 18th, the former All Star closer has pitched 3 2/3 innings of shutout relief, with six strikeouts and just two walks and three hits.

There is, however, one other important x-factor in the pen.

Manny Delcarmen was scored upon in just three of his last 26 appearances dating to July 31, and ended the season with 10 consecutive scoreless appearances. He held batters to a .179 average in that span, striking out 21 in 24 innings while allowing 10 walks and 15 hits. Of the 12 runners he inherited, just three scored. In his last nine appearances, spanning 8 1/3 innings, Delcarmen walked just one while striking out eight. If he rises to the occasion, and lives up to all the potential the Red Sox have been banking on, the Red Sox pen will be overwhelming.

The Angels had a grinding September, playing 28 games in 30 days and finishing the month at 14-14.

The Sox, on the other hand, played 27 games and went 16-11.

When it comes to momentum, offense, rotation, bullpen, and playing in Fenway, the Red Sox have the edge over the Angles and should prevail in four games.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD....

.... IS COMING TO AN END.

None of the past week’s events should come as a surprise. If you didn’t know it before, you know it now; the Boston Red Sox just aren’t a great team. Yes, they’re good, but they’re not great. They’re not the best team in the American League. In fact, they’re not even the best team in their division. That distinction goes to the hated, and once again dreaded, New York Yankees.

Over the past few weeks, and even months, many key Red Sox personnel suddenly look tired, as if the grind of a month-long spring training and a six month season have finally caught up to them.

Clay Buchholz is just a rookie with no playoff experience. He won’t be the hero this year. Hideki Okajima? Ouch. Eric Gagne. Help! Bryan Corey? Javier Lopez? Mike Timlin? Anyone? Anyone?

Kevin Youkilis has suffered his second consecutive second-half fizzle. Before the All-Star break, Youkilis was hitting .328 with 40 strikeouts. Since the break, it’s .234 with 60 whiffs.

By the end of every season, the 230-pound Jason Varitek always looks burdened by consistently crouching down under his own weight. A career .267 hitter, Varitek is hitting just .252 this year.

JD Drew is a well-documented disaster. Coco Crisp, while a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder, has never found his stroke since coming to Boston. Julio Lugo, despite his contributions with stolen bases and RBI, hasn’t been able to hit his way out of a season-long slump. And Alex Cora, Doug Mirabelli, and Eric Hinske, while all fine role players, simply cannot hit.

And that has been the Achilles heel of this Red Sox team all year long; poor hitting and a lack of offense in critical situations. How many times have the Sox left men on base in scoring position to end an inning? Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, and Dustin Pedroia have carried the team almost all year long, making up for the inefficiencies of their teammates.

When the Yankees swept three straight games from the Sox at Yankee Stadium in late August, the writing was on the wall; the Yankees were a superior team. And when the Yankees took two out of three at Fenway last week, that writing became larger, clearer, and even more glaring.

The Sox supposed strength, pitching, hasn’t made a difference against the Yankees, who took the season series 10-8. But here’s the shocker; the Sox outscored the Yanks in the season series 99-93. I’m as surprised as you are. Yet the Bombers are baseball’s number one offense, outscoring the Red Sox by 81 runs this season. The Sox are fourth in runs scored.

The Red Sox stormed out of the gate, going 16-8 in April and 20-8 in May. Meanwhile, the Yankees staggered out of spring training, going 9-14 in April and 13-15 in May. The hobbled and wounded New Yorkers used multiple starting pitchers and didn’t resemble the team that had won 11 AL East titles in 13 years, including the last nine, and four World Series titles in five years.

But how the Yanks turned things around in the second half, going 14-6 in July and 18-11 in August, closing the gap on the Red Sox all the while. And the Yankees have never let up, going 13-4 so far in September.

A couple hundred miles to the northeast, the Red Sox were also winning -- just not nearly as often. The Sox went 15-12 in July, 16-13 in August, and 10-8 so far in September.

The point is this; it’s not how fast you start, it’s how strong you finish that counts. The Yankees are finishing stronger than the Red Sox and have been the better team in head-to-head competition.

Winning the division is relevant only for bragging rights and home-field advantage in the playoffs. The home field advantage is obviously the more important of the two. The Sox are 5-4 against the Yankees at Fenway this year. They are 3-6 in the Bronx.

So winning the division may matter a bit, but perhaps not enough to really make a difference for the Sox. The Yankees seem to be the better – certainly the hotter – team right now, as we near the end of the regular season.

There are just nine games remaining until the playoffs begin. The Red Sox had better win the division so that the Yankees have to play their nemesis, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California, USA. The Angels have been hell for the Yanks going back to 2002. But the Sox will still have to beat the Indians to earn a right to play for the Pennant. And this year the Sox won’t be the favorite.

Winning the division would be nice, but it won’t matter if the Sox are bounced in the first round, or lose to the Yankees in the ALCS.

Do we pray for the Angels to win? Pick your poison.

Are you feeling confident about any Red Sox starter other than Josh Beckett right now?

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

OFFENSIVE ANEMIA

The Red Sox offensive outburst against the White Sox last weekend was an anomaly. The Red Sox scored an astonishing 46 runs in the four-game series while the hapless White Sox could only muster a meager seven runs.

Then came a quick return to reality.

In the three-game disappointment against the Yankees, the Red Sox scored a combined 6 runs on just 13 hits.

But none of this should be surprising.

The lower-than-normal power numbers of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have been well-documented. Ortiz hit his 25^th home run of the season last night against Roger Clemens, simultaneously breaking up Clemens’ no-hitter and shutout bid. But with just over a month left in the season, Ortiz has less than half the 54 homers he hit last season when he set the Red Sox single-season record.

And though Ramirez hit his 20th home run on Tuesday night -- becoming just the 12th player to hit at least 20 longballs in 13 consecutive seasons -- his nine-year streak of 30 homer, 100 RBI seasons appears in jeopardy. With 86 RBI, he seems poised to reach the 100 plateau once again. But his recent oblique injury may have eliminated whatever chance he had at reaching 30 homers this year. Since 1995, Ramirez has never hit fewer than 26 homers in a season.

But the focus on Ortiz and Ramirez has somewhat obscured the fact that other Sox hitters are also underperforming this season.

Coco Crisp and JD Drew, two-thirds of the Sox outfield, have combined for just 12 home runs – the same number as Jason Varitek. But it’s not just an absence of power that has limited the two Sox outfielders. Crisp is batting just .268 with 121 hits, while Drew is batting .260 with just 100 hits. To make matters worse, Crisp has only 35 extra-base hits and Drew just 33.

The corner outfield and infield positions are traditionally the power producers. That’s not the case for the Sox this year. Ramirez and Drew have combined for 27 home runs, while Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis have combined for 31. Considering that 11 different Major League hitters have launched 27 homers by themselves, this lack of Sox power is rather glaring.

Only five Red Sox hitters have reached double digits in home runs (Ortiz – 25; Ramirez – 20; Lowell – 17; Youkilis – 14; Varitek – 12), and they’re likely to be the only ones who will. Cumulatively, Sox hitters have combined for just 131 homers this year. By comparison, the Brewers, who lead baseball in this category, have blasted 180.

All of this is surprising to those of us who’d become accustomed to a team that slugged its way to victory year after year. The Red Sox led the majors in runs for three straight seasons, from 2003-2005.

Measured against other MLB teams this year, the Sox are fourth in runs, fourth in RBI, seventh in hits, seventh in slugging, eighth in total bases, and 19^th in home runs. But this last statistic is clearly the most glaring. For decades, the Red Sox have been a premier power hitting team. Not this year.

However, the Sox aren’t just suffering a power outage this season; they’re also suffering through some uninspired – and uninspiring -- hitting as well.

Though the Red Sox .278 team batting average is tied with the Braves for fifth best in baseball, it is buoyed by the exceptional and consistent hitting of Lowell (.324), Ortiz (.322), and stellar rookie Dustin Pedroia (.316). And though Ramirez is hitting below his career average while Youkilis is suffering a second half slump -- just as he did last year, both are hitting at least .290. But after that a dramatic falloff begins.

Take a look at these batting averages: Varitek - .264; Alex Cora - .254; Julio Lugo - .238; Doug Mirabelli - .212; Eric Hinske - .201.

Ramirez, a career .313 hitter, is batting .292 this year. Youkilis, who was hitting .328 before the All-Star break, has been in a freefall and is batting just .225 since the break, dropping his average to .290. Before the break, Youkilis had just 40 strikeouts, but with just over a month to go in the second half, he’s already struck out an additional 44 times. And the first baseman had 147 total bases in the first half but has just 64 since then.

The 2007 Red Sox are built on pitching, and clearly that is how they will have to win. Pitching usually beats hitting, but as the Yankees have just proven, that is not always the case. Having the second lowest ERA and the second most shutouts in baseball didn’t make a difference for the Sox in this series. Though the Boston staff has surrendered the third fewest hits and fifth fewest home runs (second fewest in the AL), those distinctions didn’t help against the Yankees.

The Sox could very well face the Yankees again in the playoffs -- should they get there. There are no guarantees this year; there are just three games separating New York, Seattle and Detroit for the Wild Card. The Yankees will surely out-slug the Sox, and the Sox best hope is having superior pitching. But despite what most of us have believed all year long, that is not a given. We’ve just witnessed the Yankees limit the Sox to just six runs over three games, while scoring 14 themselves.

It would be nice if the Sox offense could find a way to come alive and show some vigor before the season ends. But at this point waiting for Manny Ramirez, JD Drew, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, Jason Varitek, Doug Mirabelli and Eric Hinske to find the pop that's been missing from their bats may be a lost cause.

Once the playoffs begin, anything can happen. Just consider the 2006 Cardinals. The Sox will have to ride their rotation and bullpen into and through the playoffs. But if the old axiom “pitching wins championships” proves to be true again this year, the San Diego Padres will be hoisting the World Series trophy in October.

Or maybe the Sox hitters will finally find a magic elixir. Do you believe in magic?

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

BASEBALL'S MOST OVERPAID, UNDERACHIEVING PLAYER

With a .262 average, 7 homers, 46 RBI, and a $70 million contract, that's the most polite way to describe JD Drew.

Coming into this season, JD Drew was supposed to be the potent number five the hitter the Red Sox had been lacking the last few years. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz had been consistently carrying far too much of the offensive load and Drew was billed as the answer.

Instead, Drew has been nothing more than an enigma.

Before homering against the White Sox on Sunday, Drew hadn't hit round-tripper since June 20th in Atlanta. His Sunday shot amounted to just the seventh homer of the season for Drew and was his first in 51 games, ending the longest drought of his career. Drew’s homerless streak had reached a mind-boggling 165 at-bats.

To highlight how disappointing Drew has been at the plate, Bobby Kielty -- who had four RBIs on Saturday -- now has more RBIs (6) this month in just 19 at-bats than Drew has (5) in 68 at-bats.

As we approach the end of August, baseball's most overpaid and underachieving player has a grand total of just 46 RBI.

The 31-year-old Drew entered this season as a lifetime .286 hitter, with a career- total of 162 homers and 509 RBIs -- an average of 20 and 64 per year, respectively.

Apparently it didn’t faze Red Sox management that a guy who’d averaged 20 homers annually could be expected to knock in just 64 runs each season. That should have been a red flag indicating that Drew wouldn’t be an adequate five hitter. It’s now clear that he won’t even come close to approaching 20 homers this season. At this point, ten dingers appear to be a pipe dream.

Despite the underwhelming numbers, and the fact that he’d never been an All Star, the Red Sox made Drew one of the highest paid outfielders in the game. His enormous and unjustified contract was predicated on a pretty slim resume.

Sure, last season Drew led the Dodgers with 100 RBIs, 89 walks, 34 doubles, and a .393 OBP. And he also tied Nomar Garciaparra for the team lead with 20 home runs.

But there was another side to that coin. Drew had hit 30 home runs just once. He’d hit .300 only twice. And his 100 RBI for the Dodgers last year were a career high. His best season in the majors came in 2004, with the Atlanta Braves, when he hit .305 (.436 OBP) with 31 home runs and 93 RBIs, and finished sixth in the National League MVP voting.

That's very similar to Trot Nixon's best season (2003), and yet no one offered him $14 million a year. And one of the Sox' primary concerns with Nixon was his frequent injuries and a lack of dependability. While Drew has thus far remained off the DL, he is clearly lacking Nixon's heart, desire, and grit.

But here's the most amazing aspect of the Drew deal; before he signed, no Sox player had been given a contract of longer than four years by the current ownership. And for further comparison, David Ortiz -- arguably the team's MVP -- receives an average salary of $12.5 million annually.

Without question, Drew doesn't even come close to approaching the value of Ortiz, despite the fact he also plays defense. Yet, the Red Sox have invested superstar money in a player who is not a superstar, and who never will be. Did I mention that Drew has never been an All Star?

So far this season, the $70 million man is batting a paltry .262 with a .362 OBP. That amounts to a meager 99 hits with 60 walks. Some are still talking about Drew’s “potential” and hopelessly waiting for him to eventually come around. A Mo Vaughn comeback is about as likely. Drew has been in the majors for nearly a decade. At this point he is what he is: an average player with an out-sized, undeserved, bloated contract.

Here's what I predicted on this site last December, when the Red Sox signed Drew:

"Due to injuries and an underachieving performance, the Red Sox will try to move Drew before this contract is up. But they'll have to eat some of this oversized, bloated deal because a wiser team will see him as the overpaid, damaged goods he is. And at that point, said team will have the Sox over a barrel. Just you wait and see."

The evidence is in. Based not only on his performance this year, but also over the course of his nine-year career, it can now be definitively said that the signing of JD Drew was a grossly over-priced mistake.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

POWER OUTAGE

With a quarter of the season remaining, Red Sox fans and management are still waiting for the sleeping giant that was supposed to be the Red Sox offense to awaken.

How often have we heard people say that Manny, Papi, and JD Drew are going to come around any time now and start producing runs? Stop holding your breath. With three quarters of the season already played out, a clear pattern has been established. The heart of this offense isn't what it was expected to be.

At this point, Ramirez and Ortiz have combined for just 38 homers — one fewer than Alex Rodriguez. Add Drew to the mix, and the Sox alleged power trio have combined for a grand total of 44 home runs this year — just five more than A-Rod all by his lonesome.

And A-Rod has already driven in 114 runs. While we've gotten used to similar production from Ramirez and Ortiz, this year they're way off the mark. Ramirez has 79 RBI. Ortiz has 71 RBI. And Drew? Forget about it. Baseball's most overpaid and underachieving player has just 44 RBI. How pathetic.

Though the Sox remain in first place in the AL East, the offensive impotence of the 3-5 hitters has had consequences.

The Sox have scored one run or less 18 times this season. And in 38 games, the Sox have scored three or fewer runs, having an 11-31 record to show for it. When your best pitcher, Josh Beckett, has a 3.24 ERA and the other starters have ERA's ranging up to, and beyond, five runs per game, it's surprising that their record isn't worse in such contests. They clearly won't win too many games in this manner.

In April, the Sox scored three or fewer runs eight times and had a 1-7 record in those games. In May it again happened eight times, resulting in a 2-6 record. In June they scored three runs or less a staggering 12 times, leaving them with a 5-7 record in those situations. In July it was 10 games and had 1-9 results. So far this month they are 2-2 in these contests.

The reasons for Ramirez's power decline are unclear. At 35, has he suddenly and rapidly gotten old? In 55 at-bats during “late and close” situations — when a team is winning by a run, tied, or with the potential tying run on deck — Manny has driven in five runs, while striking out 14 times — or about once every four at-bats.

Ortiz's diminished power can attributed to his bad knee and, perhaps, his recently injured shoulder. Big Papi doesn't seem so big at the plate any more and hasn't fared much better than his teammate. Over 54 at-bats in “late and close” situations this season, he has also knocked in just five runs.

At this point, it's pretty well established that the Sox success so far this year can be attributed to their incredible starting rotation and exceptional bullpen. The Sox staff is the only one in the Majors with three starters having at least 13 wins apiece. And with a 3.79 ERA, the Sox have the second lowest ERA in baseball, following the Padres (3.46).

The offense has been the problem, and it is largely the reason the team is just 36-32 since the start of June. Case in point; the offense has scored a total of just four runs for Daisuke Matsuzaka in his last four losses. The team's blisteringly hot start in April and May — when they went a combined 36-16 — has masked just how mediocre they've been since then. It's taken them 2 1/2 months to win as many games as they did in the first two months, and they've had twice as many losses.

But here's the rub; the Sox offense has been better than you think it's been. Are you ready for this? The Boston offense has scored the fourth most runs in all of baseball this season. That's right, the Sox have driven in 613 runs, following the Yankees (710), the Tigers (678), and the Phillies (645). Why doesn't it seem that way?

It's largely because players like Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis and rookie revelation Dustin Pedroia have stepped up and helped carry the load. Lowell could well be the team's offensive MVP, and Pedroia is a credible AL Rookie of the Year candidate. Even Julio Lugo, who — with his .238 batting average — hasn't been much more likely to get a hit than the rest of us this season, has driven in 57 runs.

Despite having an off season compared to his prodigious and prolific past, on Sunday Ramirez passed Jimmie Foxx for fifth place on the Red Sox career RBI list. Ramírez now has 791 RBIs in a Sox uniform and will likely remain in fifth place until his playing days with the Sox are over. Even if the Sox were to exercise the two option years on his contract ('09 & '10), it's hard to imagine him knocking 457 more runs to pass Bobby Doerr (1,247) on the all-time Sox list. Overall, Ramírez has 1,595 RBIs, tying him with Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt for 30th on the all-time list. Ramirez is also in fifth place on the Red Sox all-time home run list, with 253 dingers. It seems certain that he'll never pass Dwight Evans (379) for fourth place.

Ramírez has a chance to become only the fourth player in history to drive in 100 or more runs in 10 straight seasons. The others are Hall of Famers Foxx (13), Lou Gehrig (13), and Al Simmons (11). Ramirez needs 21 RBI over the remaining 42 games to maintain his streak.

What could be in jeopardy is Ramírez's streak of 30-homer, 100-RBI seasons. He has done it nine straight times. Foxx holds the record at 12; A-Rod has now done it 10 straight seasons. Ramirez presently has 19 homers this year. He could get hot at any time — 10 homers in a month is not beyond him — and that streak could also remain intact.

That would be a good thing for the Red Sox and their World Series aspirations. Yes, it's been said countless times before that pitching wins championships. But in order for that to happen, the Sox offense needs to score at least five runs a game, considering that their AL-best pitching staff can be expected to allow at least four runs a game. Other teams should be so lucky.

Bobby Kielty and/or Jacoby Ellsbury might help, but neither will be the savior. Kielty was never that guy and Ellsbury isn't yet — if he'll ever be. No, for the Sox to have post-season success and hoist another World Series trophy, they'll have to hope for some of the old magic from Messieurs Ortiz, Ramirez, and.... JD Drew?

As I said, don't hold your breath.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

IF ONLY SCHILLING COULD HIT

Their pitching should carry them into October. But the Sox offense needs to eventually wake up.

There are just eight weeks to go in the 2007 season. As of now, the Red Sox still have the best record in baseball. Let's hope they're still the best team in October, when it really matters.

Curt Schilling has returned for the stretch run. The Sox managed to go 24-18 in his absence.

So far it looks like the Sox were wise in not granting Schilling the contract extension he's been seeking.

Schilling has been hit pretty hard over the last 12 months, giving up 212 hits (22 homers) in his last 170 innings.

Since July 15 of last season, Schilling is a disappointing 10-8 with a 4.55 ERA. In 170 innings, he has allowed a staggering 212 hits and 22 home runs while striking out just 135. In his last 25 games, he has won consecutive starts just once.

However, before Schilling went on the DL to rest and rehabilitate his pitching shoulder, the Red Sox were 44-25 -- a 103-win pace. The Sox subsequently went 24-18 during his absence, a 93-win clip over the course of a full season. This implies that Schilling's value is approximately plus-10 over the course of a full season.

But Sox starters had almost the exact same ERA during Schilling’s absence (4.18) as they did during his presence (4.10).

The Red Sox weren't great in Schilling's absence, but they hung in there and kept the Yankees from gaining too much ground. No doubt, Schilling's return should make the Red Sox a better team. But he is no longer the staff ace. Those days are long gone. The 40-year-old righty has been supplanted by Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. But Schilling's playoff experience is invaluable. What he needs is "consistency", to "execute" and to "make adjustments", as he has so often said himself.

The starting rotation and the bullpen will be the Red Sox strong suits in these final 50 games. The big question is the offense -- as in, where is it and where has it been?

A weak offense has meant that the Red Sox need to get leads early. They are 60-5 when tied or leading through six innings, 8-39 when trailing. This means that Sox starters have to outpitch their opponents because the lineup hasn't been able to consistently outscore their opponents.

Runners left on base has been the Sox Achilles heel all year long.

The Sox went 21-7 in August of 2004. But they were 9-21 last August when the wheels came off the wagon hauling their playoff hopes. They'll need to be on a roll this September and stay hot through the playoffs to become World Series Champions once again.

The pitching will be as good, or better, than any of the competition they'll face. How good Schilling will be remains to be seen. Having nearly two months off should benefit a pitcher his age. How good the offense will be is anyone's guess.

Playoff hopes usually rise or fall in relation to pitching. For the Red Sox this year, most unusually, much will rest on the Sox ability to score runs and stop leaving runners on base.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

WAKEFIELD CELEBRATES 41ST WITH 150TH

Tim Wakefield celebrated his 41st birthday in style.

With his victory over the Orioles today, Wakefield became just the third pitcher in the Red Sox 107-year history to win 150 games. The veteran knuckleballer joins Cy Young and Roger Clemens, each with 192 wins, as the only pitchers in the franchise's storied history to achieve the feat.

Now 13-9, Wakefield is within four wins of his career high and has a legitimate shot at 20 wins this year. With the victory his ERA also dropped to 4.55. Wakefield is on a roll. He won his third consecutive start and sixth out of seven, becoming just the sixth pitcher since 1980 to get a decision in his first 22 starts to begin a season.

The longest tenured Red Sox player, Wakefield has certainly had his ups and downs over 13 seasons with the club. Though he will undoubtedly finish his career in third place on he team's all-time wins list, Wakefield already owns the record for most losses (131) in club history. But he has established himself as an innings eater by pitching at least 200 innings in five seasons, and 195 in another.

Wakefield's 464 games are second in team history to Bob Stanley's 637, and his 327 starts are second to Clemens' 382. But he has also given up more runs, earned runs, and home runs than any other pitcher in club history -- by rather wide margins. He is also the team's all-time leader in walks.

So the record is a mixed one for Wakefield. Ultimately, his place in the team's record book is a testament to his longevity more than his greatness. If you stick around long enough, the numbers start piling up -- for better or for worse. But winning 150 games is quite an accomplishment, and Wakefield should be praised and congratulated for all he's done for the Red Sox over the years.

With a career total of 164 wins between the Pirates and Red Sox, if he can pitch another two seasons -- a scenario that may seem unlikely -- Wakefield has an outside shot at 200 career victories.

Before this season is over, Wakefield (1644) may pass Pedro Martinez (1683) and move into second place on the Sox career strike out list, where he will trail only Clemens (2590).

So enjoy what's left of Wakefield's rollercoaster-like ride with the Sox. At 41, and on a revolving, year-to-year contract, this won't go on much longer. You won't find an athlete who does more more for his community, or who gets more praise from his teammates, than Tim Wakefield.

Thanks for all you've done Tim, both on and off the field. And congratulations on an impressive accomplishment.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

YOU CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH PITCHING

Especially young pitching. Kason Gabbard and Jon Lester are cheap and will be under the Red Sox control for years to come. They should both be part of the Sox future rotation. Neither should be traded now.

Jon Lester's sudden call up from Pawtucket is as intriguing as it is uplifting.

Of course we all wanted to see him put an exclamation point on his return from cancer treatment and prove that he was healthy enough, and fully prepared, to pitch at the big league level again. After showing so much poise and potential last season, many of us knew he was just the kind of young man who would be successful at battling cancer.

And after going 7-2 last year for the Red Sox, we all wanted to see what the 23-year-old could do this season.

But Lester struggled recently in Pawtucket, making his immediate return seem unlikely. Sox management said they wanted to see him put together a string of strong Triple A starts before calling him up. But that didn't happen after a forearm strain sidetracked Lester's return. In 14 starts at Triple-A Pawtucket this season, Lester was 4-5 with a 3.89 ERA. But the organization's main concern was that he had just 51 strikeouts in 71 2/3 innings, and opponents hit .250 against him in Triple A.

When you factor in Kason Gabbard's impressive performances of late, the return of Lester seemed improbable until the September call-ups.

Without question, Gabbard has earned his spot in the Sox rotation. The rookie has allowed three or fewer hits in four straight starts. Now 4-0, Gabbard is unbeaten in his last eight starts, two of them last year. The young lefty has won all five of his starts at Fenway Park and is the third pitcher in franchise history to win his first five major league starts at home, following George Winter in 1901 and Boo Ferris in 1945. No one has won more than five.

A 29th-round draft pick by Boston back in 2000, Gabbard earned his most recent win almost exactly a year -- 364 days, to be exact -- after his major league debut. With a string of strong performances, his ERA has dropped to an impressive 2.97.

And now the more highly-touted Lester, the best story in the world of sports in some time, has another win under his belt after stifling the Indians last night in Cleveland over six innings. Lester's line; Ninety-six pitches, five hits, three walks, two runs, and six strike outs.

But here's the rub; Curt Schilling will be back in less than two weeks, and something's got to give. The Sox have six starters for five rotation spots. What will they do? And what are they thinking with this call up?

Clearly, Julian Tavarez had to go. He hadn't given his team a fair chance at winning in quite some time. In his last five starts, Tavarez was 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA. But with Gabbard taking Schilling's spot and Lester called upon to replace Tavarez, what happens when Schilling returns? This is the question on the mind of nearly every Red Sox fan.

Was Lester's inaugural start just a showcase for interested teams? One has to hope not. His is an inspirational story of courage and perseverance. Red Sox Nation has fallen in love with this kid. And the team seems to feel similarly. The organization has had nothing but high hopes for Lester since drafting him in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft.

In fact, Lester has been among the Red Sox top prospects for the last few years. Sox fans heard the hype about him over the intervening years and eagerly anticipated his arrival to the big league club. Then last year he finally provided a taste of all that he was capable of, before anaplastic large cell lymphoma sidelined him with the first serious challenge of his young life. But he rose to the occasion, like a warrior, and won. That's tenacity. That's what you look for in a pitcher.

Fighting cancer may have made Lester mature more quickly, and it has certainly proven his mettle. He has shown tremendous attributes; confidence, determination, and poise -- these are the things that make a successful big league pitcher.

The Sox are a veteran team, but they have played lackluster baseball since the start of June. Lester's return could spark and inspire a club that needs just such a lift at this time. Lester's teammates were clearly pulling for him and reveled in his success. Couple that with the mantra that championships are built on pitching, and that young pitchers like Lester are relatively cheap and can remain under a team's control for years to come. Why would the Sox trade this kid?

Perhaps to get Mark Texiera. But with Scott Boras reportedly seeking at least $20 million annually for Texiera's services after next season, the cult-hero Lester seems like an awfully high price to pay.

But perhaps Lester isn't the one being dangled.

Maybe the Sox question whether Gabbard can maintain his sterling touch once teams start getting a better scouting report on him. Perhaps the Sox think he's pitching above his potential right now and that this is the time to trade him, while his value is at its pinnacle.

If someone has to go back to Pawtucket upon Schilling's return, so be it. As of now, Gabbard has earned his spot. But both of these young lefties should be part of the future.

As the old saying goes, you can never have enough pitching. The Red Sox appear poised to fill the gaps when Tim Wakefield and Schilling both retire, or aren't tendered new contracts. The Red Sox rotation could get much younger with Gabbard and Lester joining Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Under that scenario, the future has never looked brighter.

Of his return, Lester said he just wants to, "come back and be with these guys and do this for a long time."

The Red Sox should grant him his wish. And while they're at it, they should grant that same opportunity to Kason Gabbard as well.

Let's hope the Red Sox keep both young lefties and enjoy the fruits of that decision.

MIRED IN MEDIOCRITY

The Red Sox haven't looked like a division leader, much less a Pennant threat, in quite some time. Something's got to give. But what can be done?

For the Red Sox, the first homestand of the second half isn't shaping up nearly as well as anyone had hoped for, or had a right to expect. Playing two sub-.500 teams, the Sox have gone a disappointing 3-4 after splitting a four game series with Toronto and losing a three game series to Kansas City.

But in truth, this type of play has become commonplace for the Red Sox since the start of June. On May 29th, the Red Sox held a 14 1/2 game lead in the AL East. But let's forget about May. That was soooo long ago. Let's just talk about the last two months.

On June 2nd, the Red Sox held a 13 1/2 game lead over the Yankees. But then began their current morass of mediocrity. The Red Sox proceeded to go 13-14 in June, and are now 7-8 in July. That means for the last two months the Red Sox are a combined 20-22, or two games below .500. And over that period, the Sox lead has dropped to just seven games. With a losing record since the start of June, the local nine must now be considered below average -- at least until they prove otherwise. Their early season success is masking just how bad they've been as of late.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. The Red Sox went into the free agent market last winter and spent a combined $91 million on Julio Lugo and JD Drew, and an additional $103 million on Japanese phenom Daisuke Matsuzaka. But to be fair, Matsuzaka really hasn't been part of the problem. It's been the offense, long the heart of the Red Sox game, that has been the problem. And Lugo and Drew, the expensive offseason acquisitions, have been at the heart of this problem.

As of Monday, the Sox were batting just .237 (77 for 325) with runners in scoring position, dating back to June 4 at Oakland. This offensive slide coincides with their losing record over that period.

Manny Ramirez is having the first off year in his illustrious career. Since 1995, Ramirez has never hit fewer than 26 homers in a season. That streak could be in jeopardy. And he is also hitting 21 points below his career average at present.

Then there is David Ortiz and his torn meniscus. Unlike Ramirez, in Papi's case at least we have clear problem to which his power outage can be attributed. After hitting a club record 54 homers last year, Ortiz is on pace to hit just 28 this year, assuming he plays in all 68 remaining games -- a highly unlikely scenario. The knee won't get better on its own and, despite his stellar .321 average, Ortiz won't be the same hitter who struck fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers until he has surgery and recovers fully.

So what's the remedy? Another potent bat would seem in order.

Wily Mo Pena was supposed to be that guy when the Sox traded for him before the start of last season. Hitting a healthy .301 in limited action last year, Pena showed all the potential that had been talked about for years. But this year he has simply gone in reverse.

The Red Sox had hoped to get the sometimes slugger 400 at-bats as a reserve this season. That would have been a first for the 25-year-old; his career high is 336 in 2004 with the Reds. But that's not going to happen. In fact, it won't even be close.

Pena currently has a meager .210 average in 124 at-bats. Mired in a continued slump dating back to June 13, the reserve outfielder is hitting .146 in 41 at-bats, and has struck out 21 times without hitting a home run. In 52 at-bats since June 1, Peña has hit just one home run. Called upon to pinch hit 10 times this season, he's 0 for 10 with four whiffs. And that's the good part.

Playing the outfield, Pena looks more like Willie McGinnest than a major leaguer. His lumbering misadventures would be comical if he weren't playing for the Olde Towne team. On the occasions when he has played in the field, you can almost hear a collective gasp from the crowd at Fenway when a ball is hit anywhere near him.

The truth is, Wily Mo will never be anything more than a designated hitter, which means he has to be an American League player. But stuck playing behind the best DH in the game -- perhaps ever -- the kid will never get a chance to play regularly, much less develop, with the Red Sox. Pena is on pace for 217 at-bats this season, which would be his fewest since he was with Cincinnati in 2003, his first full season in the big leagues.

This year, Pena was supposed to improve upon his plate discipline. Poor pitch selection resulted in 90 strikeouts in 276 at-bats last season. If that ratio seems high, it is; Pena struck out an incredible one-third of the time. But this year the problem has become even more unbearable; Pena has struck out a staggering 42% of the time.

But at times last year, Pena revealed his latent potential by hitting a career-high .301 with 11 home runs, 42 RBI, and 36 runs in 84 games. The limited playing time was largely due to injuries. That performance should have raised his trade value and possibly netted a decent return. That was then, this is now. As it now stands, it's difficult to discern Pena's assets in order to persuade a potential trading partner. At this point, the acquisition of Pena can only be described as "Epstein's Folly."

Theo Epstein said Pena was supposed to provide the Red Sox with a fourth-outfielder option who could help the team immediately. And Epstein also saw him as a young player who could potentially be a middle-of-the-order hitter when players currently in those roles reach the end of their contracts. The former has never come to pass, and the latter likely never will either.

With Ortiz's nagging knee injury, time off could be good for him down the stretch. The ugly truth is that he's just one play away from going on the DL, a moment that could come at any time. That unseemly possibility was exactly the kind of thing that Wily Mo was supposed to insure against. But at this point, who would invest in that policy? If you can't play him, you've got to hope that some AL team will take him for someone -- anyone.

But Pena, alone, probably isn't attractive enough. In that case, perhaps he could be packaged with one of the Red Sox minor league outfielders, David Murphy or Brandon Moss. Neither looks like he has a chance at cracking the roster any time soon. But as a result, neither has much trade value either. Another possibility is Portland Sea Dogs' shortstop Jed Lowrie, who could also be packaged and used as trade bait. However, considering Lugo's anemic performance this season, the team may have its own plans for Lowrie next year. The question is whether he'll be ready by then. If he is, the Sox would have a very young, very cheap, homegrown middle infield for years to come.

The Red Sox would almost certainly consider moving any combination of these young players if there is any interest in them. But that's the big question. Will anyone come calling? None of them can help the Sox this year, unless they are used in a trade. Cellar dwellers will be looking to dump expiring, or expensive, veteran contracts in exchange for the chance to rebuild with younger, cheaper players. The Red Sox can only hope they find an interested party for any of these players and not the more desirable prospects such as Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Jacoby Ellsbury.

The other distinct possibility is trading Coco Crisp. The speedy center fielder has been a disappointment at the plate since he broke his finger stealing a base at the beginning of last season. Crisp had no homers in April and finished the month hitting a paltry .149. In May, he hit one home run and raised his average to a still disappointing .235, making everyone worry that it was more than just a slow start.

But then in a three-game series against the Braves, Crisp hit three homers, including two in one game. That sparked a bit of a resurgence, and since then he has started to heat up. Crisp hit .330 in June, and is currently hitting .286 this month, raising hopes that he could once again regain the form that allowed him to hit .297 and .300 in back-to-back seasons with Cleveland. He's got a long way to go, but at least he's going in the right direction. At present, Crisp is hitting just .266, with five homers and 30 RBI.

But Crisp's defense has been stellar, and spectacular catches have become routine for him. His blazing speed and athleticism have made him a virtual human highlight reel.

Just how good has Crisp been defensively? Consider this: he has just one error in 509 chances with the Sox, and the longest error-less streak for a Sox center fielder -- ever. His last, and lone, error with the club was on July 21, 2006. This year Crisp has a perfect fielding percentage. He may not produce a lot of runs, but he sure prevents them. That’s a very important, and perhaps overlooked, contribution.

But if the Sox think that Crisp is their best trade bait, and that Ellsbury is ready to assume his duties in center, then perhaps Crisp is the odd man out. Given his offensive struggles dating back to last year, he probably wouldn't provide a lot in return by himself. But as part of a package with Pena, Moss, Murphy or Lowrie, perhaps a deal can be struck that would help the Sox right the ship and make a run for the Pennant down the stretch.

Getting a healthy Curt Schilling back might be the best second half acquisition the Sox can hope for, and the emergence of Kason Gabbard is another reason for optimism. Based on his performances, the fifth spot in the rotation should be his. It would certainly be an upgrade over the present fifth starter, Julian Tavarez.

As bad as the offense has been, the appearance of Tavarez has almost guaranteed a loss. By the time Tavarez wins his next game, more than a month will have passed. Since his June 20th victory in Atlanta, the Sox' fifth starter hasn't gotten past the sixth inning. In that ugly span, Tavarez has given up 26 runs, 20 earned, in 23 1/3 innings over five starts.

Tavarez sports a 5-8 record and a swollen 5.27 ERA. His season low for ERA was 4.39. If you’re looking for the weak link in the rotation, look no further.

But putting the veteran righty back in the pen would solve the problems created by the absence of Brendan Donnelly and Joel Piniero, and the erratic nature of Mike Timlin, all righties. That, in turn, would keep the Sox from having to deal for another right-handed set-up man. And Manny Delcarmen finally appears to be delivering on his promise, as well.

Jon Lester provides even further insurance for Schilling's injury, though he's struggled of late for Pawtucket. And having two rookies in the rotation during a playoff hunt won't cut it. But the Sox would undoubtedly like to keep Lester and their other prized prospects. However, with a team so fully entrenched in what can only be described as mediocrity – if we’re being polite -- the organization may feel the need to make a move in order to inject some life into this lackluster team.

We can only hope that they won't act in desperation and make a regrettable move. Wily Mo Pena, anyone?

GABBARD'S STOCK RISES

With his complete-game shutout over the Royals, rookie Kason Gabbard may have increased his value, answered some questions, and solved some problems.

Perhaps the Red Sox got more than they expected when Kason Gabbard was called upon to make spot starts in Curt Schilling's absence. The rookie was supposed to be in the rotation just long enough for the veteran hurler to heal his shoulder and resume game-action. But the way he's pitched may have changed that plan.

In five starts this season, Gabbard is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Equally impressive are the 25 strike outs and just 21 hits in his 29.1 innings. Those numbers help explain the 25-year-old lefty's recent success.

His season's highlight came in the complete-game shutout over the Royals last night at Fenway. Gabbard looked like anything but a rookie while surrendering just three hits -- all singles -- and one walk in route to a 4-0 victory. The dominating performance was punctuated by eight strike outs.

But with Schilling expected back by the end of this month, or perhaps the beginning of August, what will that mean for Gabbard?

For his part, Schilling seems optimistic about his impending return. After throwing 31 pitches in two innings of a simulated game against four Sox batters yesterday afternoon, he sounded somewhat confident.

"Hopefully, I'll be better than I was at any point during the season earlier in the year," Schilling said. "From a feel standpoint. From a performance standpoint."

As to the health of his shoulder compared to when he went on the DL, Schilling said: "There's no comparison. I was throwing the ball 84 miles an hour in Atlanta. I thought I threw the ball well [today]. My arm didn't feel anything like it did at any point this season. I take that as a good thing."

A healthy and effective Schilling would go a long way toward making the Red Sox a World Series contender once again. It would also keep them from having to make a hasty deadline deal for another starter. And that's exactly how he sees it.

"My goal is to come back and have an impact and literally be a kind of trading-deadline pickup and be effective and win a lot of games between now and the end of the World Series," said Schilling.

Replacing pitcher of Schilling's caliber is very difficult and would be costly. A Roy Oswalt or a Dontrelle Willis would be an expensive acquisition requiring the Red Sox to part with some their valued core of prospects, such as Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and/or Jacoby Ellsbury. You can bet that it would require a pair among this prized trio to land a frontline starter.

Schilling was a key component in the Red Sox 2004 championship season and, if he's healthy, he would go a long way toward helping the club to another this year. Terry Francona gave further reason for optimism after Schilling's session yesterday.

"He threw the ball in his bullpen, and today, better than at any point since he arrived in spring training. That's a very fair statement," said Francona.

That says a lot about Schilling's 6-4 record and 4.20 ERA. He's had to fight for all of it, and it hasn't come easy. Even in his best game this season, the one-hit performance against Oakland, Schilling said he didn't feel "extraordinary," but simply lucky. "I didn't do anything exceptional. They hit balls right at people."

That said, the return of a healthy and vibrant Schilling to the rotation's three-spot would be a shot in the arm for a team that has been just average over the past month. Furthermore, keeping Gabbard at number five would give the Sox an even better rotation down the stretch. Sox fans have been concerned about the fifth starter role all season long, and the answer appears to have been found -- in house. What's more, the move would deepen the bullpen with the addition of a righty set-up man, Julian Tavarez.

Gabbard's stellar performance was just the third complete game of the season by a Sox pitcher, the others by Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling. In getting there, Gabbard threw an economical 107 pitches and faced just three batters over the minimum. That allowed for a quick and economical game, lasting just 2 hours and 18 minutes.

Gabbard's feat was special and placed him in some pretty good company. He became the first Sox rookie to throw a nine-inning shutout since Paul Quantrill, on July 4, 1993 at Seattle. He is the first Sox rookie since Roger Clemens, on July 26, 1984, to throw a nine-inning shutout at Fenway, and the first lefty rookie to spin a shutout at Fenway since Roger Moret did it on September 24, 1971.

The Sox rotation certainly could use a lefty, and at this point Gabbard appears more prepared for big league hitters than Jon Lester. In fact, as strange as it may seem, Gabbard's surprising success may actually benefit his former Pawtucket teammate in that it might keep the Sox from being reactionary and making a hasty trade that could cost them Lester.

While Gabbard's rise through the organization wasn't nearly as heralded as that of Jonathan Papelbon, Lester, or Clay Buchholz, his immediate value is even greater than the latter two. Clearly, his recent outings have raised his trade value, but the Red Sox seemed determined to continue their youth movement and promote the minor league players they've drafted and developed.

Hanging on to Gabbard is certainly much less expensive than the acquisition of a multi-million dollar veteran, which would also cost the team its prized prospects. That, in turn, would allow the Sox to focus on other needs, such as trying to add one more bat to its struggling offense.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

OFFENSIVE INEPTITUDE

RIGHT NOW, THE SOX OFFENSE IS SIMPLY OFFENSIVE

The Red Sox offense has been sleep walking its way through long stretches of this season. For a team that led the majors in runs for three straight seasons (2003-2005), 2007 has been a disappointment and a surprise. Certainly, we all expected more.

This year, compared to other AL teams, the Sox offense ranks sixth in runs scored; sixth in RBI; sixth in hits; seventh in home runs; sixth in total bases; and fifth in batting.

The Sox 2-1 victory over the Rangers last night was no fluke. The offense is squarely middle-of-the-pack in almost every offensive category. Low scoring affairs have become customary this season. Here's a prime example; in Daisuke Matsuzaka’s past five starts, the Red Sox have scored the grand total of five runs.

The Sox have scored only 21 runs in their last seven games, and have scored two runs or fewer a staggering 12 times in their 26 games so far this month. They are 7-16 when scoring three runs or fewer.

Oddly, the Sox have hit just 31 homers at Fenway Park this year. And whether home or on the road, the Sox have gotten into the bad habit of putting runners in scoring position and then leaving them stranded.

What gives? What's become of the offensive juggernaut we'd come to know and love over the past few years? The Sox were the first team since 1951-54 Brooklyn Dodgers to lead the majors in runs for three consecutive seasons, and the first American League team since the 1936-39 Yankees to score at least 900 runs in at least three consecutive seasons.

The truth is, the decline began last season. In 2006, the Red Sox hit .269 for the season, which was third worst in the American League. And after three straight seasons of leading the majors in runs, they finished sixth in that category. The falloff in production was particularly stark after the All Star break; the Sox ranked last in the league in batting average, last in slugging, 10th in on-base percentage, and ahead of only the Devil Rays in runs.

Part of the problem the last two years was a very uneven offense. In 2006, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez accounted for 30 percent of the team's RBIs and 45 percent of its home runs. And in 2005 the pair were responsible for driving in nearly a third of the team's runs. This year the team hoped to have more balance, and they've gotten it. But instead of other players stepping up to match the production of Ortiz and Ramirez, unfortunately the Dynamic Duo have seen their production drop to something closer to the rest of their teammates.

So far this season, the two sluggers have been rather underwhelming. Ortiz has just 13 homers and 48 RBI, while Ramirez has just 11 homers and 43 RBI. Those are not the kind of numbers we've come to expect from these two. Neither is on pace for even 30 homers or 100 RBI this year.

Consider this; Mike Lowell not only has more homers than Ramirez, but also a higher slugging percentage, a higher batting average, more doubles, and more total bases. And just as unexpectedly, Lowell leads the team with 54 RBI.

But highlighting the Red Sox offensive inefficiencies so far this year is the fact that Julio Lugo has a major league-worst batting average of just .190, which is, at best, very disappointing.

One key component from the offensive "Wonder Years" that can't be overlooked is the absence of former hitting coach Ron "Papa Jack" Jackson. Under his tutelage, the Sox offense thrived. In each of Papa Jack's first two years with the club, the Sox led the majors in runs, batting average, doubles, extra-base hits, total bases, on-base percentage and slugging.

This season the Sox have a new hitting coach, Dave Magadan, and while all the offensive woes certainly can't be laid at his feet -- since the decline began in the second half last year -- his approach doesn't seem to be helping.

However, while a coach can instruct and provide tips, ultimately the hitters have to hit. And right now, the Sox hitters just aren't going that. The Red Sox are 13-14 in their last 26 games and have benefitted from the early lead they built, which, despite their recent ineptitude, still stands at 10 1/2 games.

They may win the AL East, but to win the Pennant and the World Series they'll have to do a whole lot better. In order for that to happen, they'll need the full complement of their offensive fire power to get it done.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

TO BUEHRLE, OR NOT TO BUEHRLE?

The possibility of Mark Buehrle coming to the Red Sox to bolster an already potent rotation has some Sox fans salivating and must worry other A.L. contenders. With Curt Schilling's future status unclear, the Sox could use some insurance.

The following illustrates Schilling's inconsistency this season; he has made five starts in which he has allowed five earned runs or more, for an ERA of 8.89. In his other 10 starts, he has allowed just 18 earned runs in 68 innings, for an ERA of 2.38. So far this season, a Schilling start is like a box of chocolates -- you never know what your gonna get.

However, fifth starter Julian Tavarez has been a pleasant surprise. Though he was roughed up by the Mariners last night, giving up six runs (three earned) in 4 1/3 innings (his shortest outing since a four inning effort against the Rangers on April 7 in Texas), Tavarez has certainly pitched beyond all expectations.

Going into last night's contest, Tavarez was unbeaten in his last seven starts, and had a 4-0 record over that span. His previous outing had given the Red Sox their first back-to-back shutouts since July 2006, and seven through their first 71 games -- more than all of last season.

That said, Tavarez still sports a 5-5 record and a 4.60 ERA. It has been assumed from the beginning that Tavarez was simply keeping the fifth spot warm until Jon Lester returns from his rehab assignment. But Lester has struggled as of late, the low light coming last night in Louisville.

The young lefty lasted just 4 1/3 innings for Pawtucket, giving up eight earned runs on nine hits in a 12-7 loss. In that brief outing, Lester threw an inefficient 100 pitches, walking four and striking out four. The beating inflated his earned run average from 2.49 to 3.78.

Yet, Lester showed his true colors last year, and he's probably disappointed that he still hasn't been promoted, though the All Star break is fast approaching. But he’ll join the Sox soon enough. The Sox would love to move Tavarez back to the bullpen, and at 40, Schilling won't heal as quickly as he once did. That's why the Sox are interested in Buehrle.

But the Sox have two younger and much cheaper lefty alternatives in Lester and Kason Gabbard, who will make his second start of the season tonight. In his first outing against the Braves, Gabbard allowed two earned runs in five-plus innings, earning a win in the 6-3 victory.

It was a performance that led Sox shortstop Alex Cora to proclaim, "He looked like a crafty lefty, like a veteran.... At the end of the year, if he comes back, we know we can count on him."

It's got to inspire and encourage a rookie pitcher when a veteran teammate gives him a vote of confidence like that.

On the other hand, Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley doesn't have that same confidence in Buehrle.

"I'm not a big Buehrle guy at all. Talk about pitching to contact. Everybody hits him. The only thing good about him is that it doesn't take very long to pitch a game, one way or another. He throws a lot of strikes. I mean, not to get on him, lefthanders have always amazed me how they get by. He knows how to pitch, obviously. He threw a no-hitter. He's one of the best lefthanders around. I just... I'm afraid of him. I'm afraid of him because he throws too many strikes. I just, Fenway Park, I really don't know. You're only renting him for a couple of months, but beyond that, I'm just not a big fan of his because I think he's very hittable ... to me Gabbard's like Buehrle, but younger and throws harder."

Like Buehrle, both Gabbard and Lester are lefties. But not only are they both younger, they're a whole lot cheaper, and provide greater payroll flexibility, as well. Other needs will have to be addressed. Though he's just 28, Buehrle is rumored to be looking for a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $70 million. Five years from now, both Gabbard and Lester combined won't cost that much.

However, there should be some reasonable concern about Gabbard. Though impressive at Pawtuckett this year with a 7-2 record and a 3.24 ERA, the young pitcher has already had four elbow surgeries before the age of 25.

Yet, the Sox could have both of their young lefties in the rotation before too long, and that might be a good thing. Sending Tavarez back to bolster an already strong bullpen would be a great move. Beyond Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima, things get pretty sketchy. Does anyone really trust Joel Piniero, Manny Delcarmen, Kyle Snyder, or even the veteran Mike Timlin at this point?

If the Sox can shift Tavarez back to the bullpen, it would keep them from having to deal for another righthanded setup man. Timlin used to be that guy, but his best days are quite obviously behind him now. Last night in Seattle, Timlin gave up home runs on consecutive pitches to Kenji Johjima and Adrian Beltre.

So far this season, the once reliable Timlin has appeared in 16 games, covering 16 2/3 innings. In that span he has surrendered 23 hits and five walks, resulting in 13 runs and a 6.48 ERA. To make matters worse, a staggering 22% of those hits (5 of 23) have been home runs. And then there's the matter of his meager nine strikeouts this year.

Now 41, Timlin suddenly looks like he got old overnight. Over the past four years, Timlin was quite durable with the Red Sox, appearing in an average of 74 games a year. But that workload appears to have taken its toll.

Once known for a 92-95 mph sinking fastball and also a slider, Timlin kept the ball down in the zone and induced a lot of ground balls. His good control meant few walks and not too many homers. At least that used to be the scouting report on him.

Timlin has suffered through shoulder problems in each of the last two seasons, and while that's troublesome for a pitcher in his 20's, for a pitcher in his 40's it's devastating and even career threatening.

We're not even halfway through the season yet, and Timlin has already had two stints on the DL. The first came late in spring training and resulted from a strained muscle in his left side. The second stint was due to tendinitis in his right shoulder that resulted in him missing 34 games. Last year, a right shoulder injury led him to miss 16 games.

Over the years, Timlin has displayed a bulldog’s tenacity and has overcome whatever obstacles have come before him. A pitcher doesn't last 17 years in the majors without great confidence and competitive spirit. But considering his age, and the injury history to his throwing arm, I think we shouldn't expect much more from Timlin this year or in the future. If I were a betting man, I'd say that this season will likely be his last.

With the 23-year-old Lester and the 25-year-old Gabbard at their disposal, the Sox just might not need the services of the veteran Buehrle. But with a career stat line of 101-70, 3.80 ERA, 345 walks, 880 K's, and 200 innings for six straight years, he sure is enticing. And keeping him from the Yankees is surely part of this equation. Perhaps the Red Sox are simply trying to bid up the price on Buehrle to make him less desirable to others.

One way or another, the Sox are in a position of strength due to their great farm system depth. They have won 48 of their first 75 games for a .640 winning percentage, and are 21 games over .500 before the All Star break. Those are luxuries their competitors would love to have.

No Red Sox team has won as many as 100 games since the 1946 AL Champions went 104-50. But with Mark Buehrle or without him, a 100-win season is certainly within reach for this current team as it now stands.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

DICE-K: A STUDY IN CONTRASTS

What to make of Daisuke Matsuzaka?

With a record of 9-5, and at least two starts remaining before the All-Star break, Matsuzaka could be halfway to 20 wins by the start of the second half.

Considering that there wasn’t a single 20-game winner in the majors last season, such an achievement for a first-year pitcher would be quite remarkable.

With his win against the Padres, in which he allowed just one run, Matsuzaka’s ERA dropped to 4.01.

Though he allowed just the single run over six innings, Matsuzka didn’t make it easy on himself. Granting the Padres five walks and five hits, the 26-year-old allowed 10 Padres’ hitters to reach base. And he threw 126 pitches in those six innings of work. When you throw that many pitches in so few innings, that’s just what it is – work.

It’s a troubling habit that Matsuzaka has gotten himself into, throwing an average of 110 pitches per start. That’s not economical and not good for one’s longevity.

But then there were the nine strike outs, adding to his season total of 102, third best in the American League.

Matsuzaka has gotten a decision in 14 of his 15 starts. And he’s a workhorse; his 98.2 innings leads the Red Sox rotation, and are 15 more than Josh Beckett and 24 more than Julian Tavarez. Barring injury, Matsuzaka will certainly give the Red Sox 200-plus this season.

Dice-K is nothing if not a series of contrasts as a pitcher. With 102 strike outs and just 93 hits in his 98.2 innings, Matsuzaka has revealed himself to be a front end starter and a challenge to opposing hitters.

But if you include the 35 walks he’s issued to those batters, Matsuzaka has allowed a staggering 128 base runners. With that in mind, it’s amazing that a lot more of them haven’t scored. It makes you wonder just how low his ERA would be if not for all the walks. And by the way, Tim Wakefield -- not exactly a master of control or location with his ‘throw it toward the plate and see where it lands’ knuckleball -- has just one more walk this season than his Japanese teammate. Add to that the fact that Matsuzaka has also hit more batters (6) than any of rotation mates, and it’s just another indication that his control has been problematic.

But none of that has stopped Matsuzka-san from winning. Sure, it helps playing on a balanced team with a solid, reliable bullpen. But, for a pitcher so new to the big leagues, he has showed plenty of grit and determination. Three A.L. pitchers have 10 wins (Beckett, Lackey and Sabathia), while Matsuzaka and Dan Haren both have nine. And Matsuzaka is the only rookie of the bunch.

But a pitcher’s win/loss record can be deceiving. Does that apply to Dice-K?

Consider this; on five occasions Matsuzaka has gone at least six innings, but his offense scored no more than one run while he was in the game. In his five losses, the Red Sox scored a total of six runs, or 1.2 per game.

On the other hand, in his nine wins, the Red Sox scored an average of 7.11 runs per game. And in his lone no-decision, the Sox scored eight runs. Apparently, it’s feast or famine for this guy.

Crunch the numbers and you see that Dice-K is a study in contrasts. In some regards, he stacks up quite nicely against his A.L. peers: second in wins (9); third in strike outs (102); and 9^th in innings. But in others, he doesn’t fare nearly as well: 10^th most walks; 21st in ERA; 22^nd in WHIP; and only 14 pitchers have allowed more earned runs.

Opponents are batting .246 against Dice-K, 18^th in the A.L. That may seem pretty good until you realize that the Red Sox fifth starter, Julian Tavarez, is 20^th at .252. Perhaps that just speaks well of the surprising Tavarez.

Ultimately, Matsuzaka plays for a team with the best winning percentage in baseball, which benefits him greatly. But then again, having him on the staff has benefited the Red Sox as well. Matsuzaka is an innings eater who doesn’t put pressure on the bullpen when he pitches. And he strikes out batters at the stunning clip of 9.3 per 9 innings, fourth best in the A.L.

However, his 319 OBA (on-base percentage against), tied for 23^rd, will need to come down for him to remain successful. A pitcher cannot allow so many base runners without it eventually coming back to haunt him. Sooner or later that luck will run out. Matsuzaka’s 1.30 WHIP is another reflection of this problem. He’s been whistling through the grave yard and getting himself out of jams, but he’s also melted down in at least one inning in almost every start.

It all comes down to location and control for Dice-K. He needs to become more economical with his pitch counts and throw more strikes. If he gets those issues sorted out, he’ll be even more successful and continue to frustrate and humble opposing hitters. If he does, the Red Sox will be even more successful as well. Imagine that.

Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.