RIGHT NOW, THE SOX OFFENSE IS SIMPLY OFFENSIVE
The Red Sox offense has been sleep walking its way through long stretches of this season. For a team that led the majors in runs for three straight seasons (2003-2005), 2007 has been a disappointment and a surprise. Certainly, we all expected more.
This year, compared to other AL teams, the Sox offense ranks sixth in runs scored; sixth in RBI; sixth in hits; seventh in home runs; sixth in total bases; and fifth in batting.
The Sox 2-1 victory over the Rangers last night was no fluke. The offense is squarely middle-of-the-pack in almost every offensive category. Low scoring affairs have become customary this season. Here's a prime example; in Daisuke Matsuzaka’s past five starts, the Red Sox have scored the grand total of five runs.
The Sox have scored only 21 runs in their last seven games, and have scored two runs or fewer a staggering 12 times in their 26 games so far this month. They are 7-16 when scoring three runs or fewer.
Oddly, the Sox have hit just 31 homers at Fenway Park this year. And whether home or on the road, the Sox have gotten into the bad habit of putting runners in scoring position and then leaving them stranded.
What gives? What's become of the offensive juggernaut we'd come to know and love over the past few years? The Sox were the first team since 1951-54 Brooklyn Dodgers to lead the majors in runs for three consecutive seasons, and the first American League team since the 1936-39 Yankees to score at least 900 runs in at least three consecutive seasons.
The truth is, the decline began last season. In 2006, the Red Sox hit .269 for the season, which was third worst in the American League. And after three straight seasons of leading the majors in runs, they finished sixth in that category. The falloff in production was particularly stark after the All Star break; the Sox ranked last in the league in batting average, last in slugging, 10th in on-base percentage, and ahead of only the Devil Rays in runs.
Part of the problem the last two years was a very uneven offense. In 2006, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez accounted for 30 percent of the team's RBIs and 45 percent of its home runs. And in 2005 the pair were responsible for driving in nearly a third of the team's runs. This year the team hoped to have more balance, and they've gotten it. But instead of other players stepping up to match the production of Ortiz and Ramirez, unfortunately the Dynamic Duo have seen their production drop to something closer to the rest of their teammates.
So far this season, the two sluggers have been rather underwhelming. Ortiz has just 13 homers and 48 RBI, while Ramirez has just 11 homers and 43 RBI. Those are not the kind of numbers we've come to expect from these two. Neither is on pace for even 30 homers or 100 RBI this year.
Consider this; Mike Lowell not only has more homers than Ramirez, but also a higher slugging percentage, a higher batting average, more doubles, and more total bases. And just as unexpectedly, Lowell leads the team with 54 RBI.
But highlighting the Red Sox offensive inefficiencies so far this year is the fact that Julio Lugo has a major league-worst batting average of just .190, which is, at best, very disappointing.
One key component from the offensive "Wonder Years" that can't be overlooked is the absence of former hitting coach Ron "Papa Jack" Jackson. Under his tutelage, the Sox offense thrived. In each of Papa Jack's first two years with the club, the Sox led the majors in runs, batting average, doubles, extra-base hits, total bases, on-base percentage and slugging.
This season the Sox have a new hitting coach, Dave Magadan, and while all the offensive woes certainly can't be laid at his feet -- since the decline began in the second half last year -- his approach doesn't seem to be helping.
However, while a coach can instruct and provide tips, ultimately the hitters have to hit. And right now, the Sox hitters just aren't going that. The Red Sox are 13-14 in their last 26 games and have benefitted from the early lead they built, which, despite their recent ineptitude, still stands at 10 1/2 games.
They may win the AL East, but to win the Pennant and the World Series they'll have to do a whole lot better. In order for that to happen, they'll need the full complement of their offensive fire power to get it done.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Saturday, June 30, 2007
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
TO BUEHRLE, OR NOT TO BUEHRLE?
The possibility of Mark Buehrle coming to the Red Sox to bolster an already potent rotation has some Sox fans salivating and must worry other A.L. contenders. With Curt Schilling's future status unclear, the Sox could use some insurance.
The following illustrates Schilling's inconsistency this season; he has made five starts in which he has allowed five earned runs or more, for an ERA of 8.89. In his other 10 starts, he has allowed just 18 earned runs in 68 innings, for an ERA of 2.38. So far this season, a Schilling start is like a box of chocolates -- you never know what your gonna get.
However, fifth starter Julian Tavarez has been a pleasant surprise. Though he was roughed up by the Mariners last night, giving up six runs (three earned) in 4 1/3 innings (his shortest outing since a four inning effort against the Rangers on April 7 in Texas), Tavarez has certainly pitched beyond all expectations.
Going into last night's contest, Tavarez was unbeaten in his last seven starts, and had a 4-0 record over that span. His previous outing had given the Red Sox their first back-to-back shutouts since July 2006, and seven through their first 71 games -- more than all of last season.
That said, Tavarez still sports a 5-5 record and a 4.60 ERA. It has been assumed from the beginning that Tavarez was simply keeping the fifth spot warm until Jon Lester returns from his rehab assignment. But Lester has struggled as of late, the low light coming last night in Louisville.
The young lefty lasted just 4 1/3 innings for Pawtucket, giving up eight earned runs on nine hits in a 12-7 loss. In that brief outing, Lester threw an inefficient 100 pitches, walking four and striking out four. The beating inflated his earned run average from 2.49 to 3.78.
Yet, Lester showed his true colors last year, and he's probably disappointed that he still hasn't been promoted, though the All Star break is fast approaching. But he’ll join the Sox soon enough. The Sox would love to move Tavarez back to the bullpen, and at 40, Schilling won't heal as quickly as he once did. That's why the Sox are interested in Buehrle.
But the Sox have two younger and much cheaper lefty alternatives in Lester and Kason Gabbard, who will make his second start of the season tonight. In his first outing against the Braves, Gabbard allowed two earned runs in five-plus innings, earning a win in the 6-3 victory.
It was a performance that led Sox shortstop Alex Cora to proclaim, "He looked like a crafty lefty, like a veteran.... At the end of the year, if he comes back, we know we can count on him."
It's got to inspire and encourage a rookie pitcher when a veteran teammate gives him a vote of confidence like that.
On the other hand, Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley doesn't have that same confidence in Buehrle.
"I'm not a big Buehrle guy at all. Talk about pitching to contact. Everybody hits him. The only thing good about him is that it doesn't take very long to pitch a game, one way or another. He throws a lot of strikes. I mean, not to get on him, lefthanders have always amazed me how they get by. He knows how to pitch, obviously. He threw a no-hitter. He's one of the best lefthanders around. I just... I'm afraid of him. I'm afraid of him because he throws too many strikes. I just, Fenway Park, I really don't know. You're only renting him for a couple of months, but beyond that, I'm just not a big fan of his because I think he's very hittable ... to me Gabbard's like Buehrle, but younger and throws harder."
Like Buehrle, both Gabbard and Lester are lefties. But not only are they both younger, they're a whole lot cheaper, and provide greater payroll flexibility, as well. Other needs will have to be addressed. Though he's just 28, Buehrle is rumored to be looking for a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $70 million. Five years from now, both Gabbard and Lester combined won't cost that much.
However, there should be some reasonable concern about Gabbard. Though impressive at Pawtuckett this year with a 7-2 record and a 3.24 ERA, the young pitcher has already had four elbow surgeries before the age of 25.
Yet, the Sox could have both of their young lefties in the rotation before too long, and that might be a good thing. Sending Tavarez back to bolster an already strong bullpen would be a great move. Beyond Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima, things get pretty sketchy. Does anyone really trust Joel Piniero, Manny Delcarmen, Kyle Snyder, or even the veteran Mike Timlin at this point?
If the Sox can shift Tavarez back to the bullpen, it would keep them from having to deal for another righthanded setup man. Timlin used to be that guy, but his best days are quite obviously behind him now. Last night in Seattle, Timlin gave up home runs on consecutive pitches to Kenji Johjima and Adrian Beltre.
So far this season, the once reliable Timlin has appeared in 16 games, covering 16 2/3 innings. In that span he has surrendered 23 hits and five walks, resulting in 13 runs and a 6.48 ERA. To make matters worse, a staggering 22% of those hits (5 of 23) have been home runs. And then there's the matter of his meager nine strikeouts this year.
Now 41, Timlin suddenly looks like he got old overnight. Over the past four years, Timlin was quite durable with the Red Sox, appearing in an average of 74 games a year. But that workload appears to have taken its toll.
Once known for a 92-95 mph sinking fastball and also a slider, Timlin kept the ball down in the zone and induced a lot of ground balls. His good control meant few walks and not too many homers. At least that used to be the scouting report on him.
Timlin has suffered through shoulder problems in each of the last two seasons, and while that's troublesome for a pitcher in his 20's, for a pitcher in his 40's it's devastating and even career threatening.
We're not even halfway through the season yet, and Timlin has already had two stints on the DL. The first came late in spring training and resulted from a strained muscle in his left side. The second stint was due to tendinitis in his right shoulder that resulted in him missing 34 games. Last year, a right shoulder injury led him to miss 16 games.
Over the years, Timlin has displayed a bulldog’s tenacity and has overcome whatever obstacles have come before him. A pitcher doesn't last 17 years in the majors without great confidence and competitive spirit. But considering his age, and the injury history to his throwing arm, I think we shouldn't expect much more from Timlin this year or in the future. If I were a betting man, I'd say that this season will likely be his last.
With the 23-year-old Lester and the 25-year-old Gabbard at their disposal, the Sox just might not need the services of the veteran Buehrle. But with a career stat line of 101-70, 3.80 ERA, 345 walks, 880 K's, and 200 innings for six straight years, he sure is enticing. And keeping him from the Yankees is surely part of this equation. Perhaps the Red Sox are simply trying to bid up the price on Buehrle to make him less desirable to others.
One way or another, the Sox are in a position of strength due to their great farm system depth. They have won 48 of their first 75 games for a .640 winning percentage, and are 21 games over .500 before the All Star break. Those are luxuries their competitors would love to have.
No Red Sox team has won as many as 100 games since the 1946 AL Champions went 104-50. But with Mark Buehrle or without him, a 100-win season is certainly within reach for this current team as it now stands.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
The following illustrates Schilling's inconsistency this season; he has made five starts in which he has allowed five earned runs or more, for an ERA of 8.89. In his other 10 starts, he has allowed just 18 earned runs in 68 innings, for an ERA of 2.38. So far this season, a Schilling start is like a box of chocolates -- you never know what your gonna get.
However, fifth starter Julian Tavarez has been a pleasant surprise. Though he was roughed up by the Mariners last night, giving up six runs (three earned) in 4 1/3 innings (his shortest outing since a four inning effort against the Rangers on April 7 in Texas), Tavarez has certainly pitched beyond all expectations.
Going into last night's contest, Tavarez was unbeaten in his last seven starts, and had a 4-0 record over that span. His previous outing had given the Red Sox their first back-to-back shutouts since July 2006, and seven through their first 71 games -- more than all of last season.
That said, Tavarez still sports a 5-5 record and a 4.60 ERA. It has been assumed from the beginning that Tavarez was simply keeping the fifth spot warm until Jon Lester returns from his rehab assignment. But Lester has struggled as of late, the low light coming last night in Louisville.
The young lefty lasted just 4 1/3 innings for Pawtucket, giving up eight earned runs on nine hits in a 12-7 loss. In that brief outing, Lester threw an inefficient 100 pitches, walking four and striking out four. The beating inflated his earned run average from 2.49 to 3.78.
Yet, Lester showed his true colors last year, and he's probably disappointed that he still hasn't been promoted, though the All Star break is fast approaching. But he’ll join the Sox soon enough. The Sox would love to move Tavarez back to the bullpen, and at 40, Schilling won't heal as quickly as he once did. That's why the Sox are interested in Buehrle.
But the Sox have two younger and much cheaper lefty alternatives in Lester and Kason Gabbard, who will make his second start of the season tonight. In his first outing against the Braves, Gabbard allowed two earned runs in five-plus innings, earning a win in the 6-3 victory.
It was a performance that led Sox shortstop Alex Cora to proclaim, "He looked like a crafty lefty, like a veteran.... At the end of the year, if he comes back, we know we can count on him."
It's got to inspire and encourage a rookie pitcher when a veteran teammate gives him a vote of confidence like that.
On the other hand, Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley doesn't have that same confidence in Buehrle.
"I'm not a big Buehrle guy at all. Talk about pitching to contact. Everybody hits him. The only thing good about him is that it doesn't take very long to pitch a game, one way or another. He throws a lot of strikes. I mean, not to get on him, lefthanders have always amazed me how they get by. He knows how to pitch, obviously. He threw a no-hitter. He's one of the best lefthanders around. I just... I'm afraid of him. I'm afraid of him because he throws too many strikes. I just, Fenway Park, I really don't know. You're only renting him for a couple of months, but beyond that, I'm just not a big fan of his because I think he's very hittable ... to me Gabbard's like Buehrle, but younger and throws harder."
Like Buehrle, both Gabbard and Lester are lefties. But not only are they both younger, they're a whole lot cheaper, and provide greater payroll flexibility, as well. Other needs will have to be addressed. Though he's just 28, Buehrle is rumored to be looking for a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $70 million. Five years from now, both Gabbard and Lester combined won't cost that much.
However, there should be some reasonable concern about Gabbard. Though impressive at Pawtuckett this year with a 7-2 record and a 3.24 ERA, the young pitcher has already had four elbow surgeries before the age of 25.
Yet, the Sox could have both of their young lefties in the rotation before too long, and that might be a good thing. Sending Tavarez back to bolster an already strong bullpen would be a great move. Beyond Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima, things get pretty sketchy. Does anyone really trust Joel Piniero, Manny Delcarmen, Kyle Snyder, or even the veteran Mike Timlin at this point?
If the Sox can shift Tavarez back to the bullpen, it would keep them from having to deal for another righthanded setup man. Timlin used to be that guy, but his best days are quite obviously behind him now. Last night in Seattle, Timlin gave up home runs on consecutive pitches to Kenji Johjima and Adrian Beltre.
So far this season, the once reliable Timlin has appeared in 16 games, covering 16 2/3 innings. In that span he has surrendered 23 hits and five walks, resulting in 13 runs and a 6.48 ERA. To make matters worse, a staggering 22% of those hits (5 of 23) have been home runs. And then there's the matter of his meager nine strikeouts this year.
Now 41, Timlin suddenly looks like he got old overnight. Over the past four years, Timlin was quite durable with the Red Sox, appearing in an average of 74 games a year. But that workload appears to have taken its toll.
Once known for a 92-95 mph sinking fastball and also a slider, Timlin kept the ball down in the zone and induced a lot of ground balls. His good control meant few walks and not too many homers. At least that used to be the scouting report on him.
Timlin has suffered through shoulder problems in each of the last two seasons, and while that's troublesome for a pitcher in his 20's, for a pitcher in his 40's it's devastating and even career threatening.
We're not even halfway through the season yet, and Timlin has already had two stints on the DL. The first came late in spring training and resulted from a strained muscle in his left side. The second stint was due to tendinitis in his right shoulder that resulted in him missing 34 games. Last year, a right shoulder injury led him to miss 16 games.
Over the years, Timlin has displayed a bulldog’s tenacity and has overcome whatever obstacles have come before him. A pitcher doesn't last 17 years in the majors without great confidence and competitive spirit. But considering his age, and the injury history to his throwing arm, I think we shouldn't expect much more from Timlin this year or in the future. If I were a betting man, I'd say that this season will likely be his last.
With the 23-year-old Lester and the 25-year-old Gabbard at their disposal, the Sox just might not need the services of the veteran Buehrle. But with a career stat line of 101-70, 3.80 ERA, 345 walks, 880 K's, and 200 innings for six straight years, he sure is enticing. And keeping him from the Yankees is surely part of this equation. Perhaps the Red Sox are simply trying to bid up the price on Buehrle to make him less desirable to others.
One way or another, the Sox are in a position of strength due to their great farm system depth. They have won 48 of their first 75 games for a .640 winning percentage, and are 21 games over .500 before the All Star break. Those are luxuries their competitors would love to have.
No Red Sox team has won as many as 100 games since the 1946 AL Champions went 104-50. But with Mark Buehrle or without him, a 100-win season is certainly within reach for this current team as it now stands.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Saturday, June 23, 2007
DICE-K: A STUDY IN CONTRASTS
What to make of Daisuke Matsuzaka?
With a record of 9-5, and at least two starts remaining before the All-Star break, Matsuzaka could be halfway to 20 wins by the start of the second half.
Considering that there wasn’t a single 20-game winner in the majors last season, such an achievement for a first-year pitcher would be quite remarkable.
With his win against the Padres, in which he allowed just one run, Matsuzaka’s ERA dropped to 4.01.
Though he allowed just the single run over six innings, Matsuzka didn’t make it easy on himself. Granting the Padres five walks and five hits, the 26-year-old allowed 10 Padres’ hitters to reach base. And he threw 126 pitches in those six innings of work. When you throw that many pitches in so few innings, that’s just what it is – work.
It’s a troubling habit that Matsuzaka has gotten himself into, throwing an average of 110 pitches per start. That’s not economical and not good for one’s longevity.
But then there were the nine strike outs, adding to his season total of 102, third best in the American League.
Matsuzaka has gotten a decision in 14 of his 15 starts. And he’s a workhorse; his 98.2 innings leads the Red Sox rotation, and are 15 more than Josh Beckett and 24 more than Julian Tavarez. Barring injury, Matsuzaka will certainly give the Red Sox 200-plus this season.
Dice-K is nothing if not a series of contrasts as a pitcher. With 102 strike outs and just 93 hits in his 98.2 innings, Matsuzaka has revealed himself to be a front end starter and a challenge to opposing hitters.
But if you include the 35 walks he’s issued to those batters, Matsuzaka has allowed a staggering 128 base runners. With that in mind, it’s amazing that a lot more of them haven’t scored. It makes you wonder just how low his ERA would be if not for all the walks. And by the way, Tim Wakefield -- not exactly a master of control or location with his ‘throw it toward the plate and see where it lands’ knuckleball -- has just one more walk this season than his Japanese teammate. Add to that the fact that Matsuzaka has also hit more batters (6) than any of rotation mates, and it’s just another indication that his control has been problematic.
But none of that has stopped Matsuzka-san from winning. Sure, it helps playing on a balanced team with a solid, reliable bullpen. But, for a pitcher so new to the big leagues, he has showed plenty of grit and determination. Three A.L. pitchers have 10 wins (Beckett, Lackey and Sabathia), while Matsuzaka and Dan Haren both have nine. And Matsuzaka is the only rookie of the bunch.
But a pitcher’s win/loss record can be deceiving. Does that apply to Dice-K?
Consider this; on five occasions Matsuzaka has gone at least six innings, but his offense scored no more than one run while he was in the game. In his five losses, the Red Sox scored a total of six runs, or 1.2 per game.
On the other hand, in his nine wins, the Red Sox scored an average of 7.11 runs per game. And in his lone no-decision, the Sox scored eight runs. Apparently, it’s feast or famine for this guy.
Crunch the numbers and you see that Dice-K is a study in contrasts. In some regards, he stacks up quite nicely against his A.L. peers: second in wins (9); third in strike outs (102); and 9th in innings. But in others, he doesn’t fare nearly as well: 10th most walks; 21st in ERA; 22nd in WHIP; and only 14 pitchers have allowed more earned runs.
Opponents are batting .246 against Dice-K, 18th in the A.L. That may seem pretty good until you realize that the Red Sox fifth starter, Julian Tavarez, is 20th at .252. Perhaps that just speaks well of the surprising Tavarez.
Ultimately, Matsuzaka plays for a team with the best winning percentage in baseball, which benefits him greatly. But then again, having him on the staff has benefited the Red Sox as well. Matsuzaka is an innings eater who doesn’t put pressure on the bullpen when he pitches. And he strikes out batters at the stunning clip of 9.3 per 9 innings, fourth best in the A.L.
However, his 319 OBA (on-base percentage against), tied for 23rd, will need to come down for him to remain successful. A pitcher cannot allow so many base runners without it eventually coming back to haunt him. Sooner or later that luck will run out. Matsuzaka’s 1.30 WHIP is another reflection of this problem. He’s been whistling through the grave yard and getting himself out of jams, but he’s also melted down in at least one inning in almost every start.
It all comes down to location and control for Dice-K. He needs to become more economical with his pitch counts and throw more strikes. If he gets those issues sorted out, he’ll be even more successful and continue to frustrate and humble opposing hitters. If he does, the Red Sox will be even more successful as well. Imagine that.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
DON'T BELIEVE CHICKEN LITTLE
No, the sky isn't falling.
Yes, the Sox have seen a one-time 14 1/2 game lead (on May 29) shrink to just eight.
But, clearly, there are problems. On their recent West Coast road trip, the Sox finished 3-4, and scored two runs or fewer four times. They batted just .222, with seven home runs, and had almost twice as many whiffs as walks. Against Colorado last week, the Sox scored just five runs over three games.
But when the offense has faltered, the Sox have often been able to count on solid pitching. After all, the team is 44-25 and its .638 winning percentage is still the best in baseball.
At 9-1, the resurgent Josh Beckett has led the way. And the club has gotten some nice performances from rookie Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has pitched better than his 8-5 record would attest. Matsuzaka has more strike outs (93) and fewer hits (88) than innings pitched (92.2). Plagued - once again - by poor run support, veteran knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield has gone 7-7, but has surrendered just 78 hits in 88.1 innings. Even Julian Tavarez has surprised some, if not himself, and usually given the club a chance to win, or at least compete.
Curt Schilling was expected to be the staff stalwart, but his 6-4 start this season has to be considered a disappointment -- so far. Though he sports a winning record, it doesn't tell the whole story. Monday night against the Braves was just the latest example.
Schilling's outing was brief and not what he expected. In fact, it was his shortest since opening day.
Boston's one-time ace lasted just 4 1/3 against the Braves, getting shelled for a season high six runs on 10 hits. In the fifth, Schilling blew up, surrendering three runs - including a homer - on three hits. But some of his most glaring problems were these; Schilling, legendary for his control, issued two walks and had no strikeouts (if you're counting, that's 12 baserunners allowed). That's likely due to the fact that his once-dominant fastball topped out at 89 mph. It was only the second time in his lofty career that he failed to strike out at least one batter, the last coming in July of 1993. Consider this; the man is fourth among active pitchers in strikeouts. Folks, there is reason for concern here. This isn't an isolated incident.
In his last start, on June 13 against Colorado, Schilling lasted just five innings - in which he threw 98 pitches - giving up six runs (five earned), on nine hits. In that game, Schilling had a more Schilling-esque strikeout/walk ratio of 5/1. But, nonetheless, he still followed up his dominating one-hitter in Oakland with an ugly loss.
After the impressive outing against the A's, the Globe's Nick Carfado wrote that the time was now to offer Schilling the one-year, $13 million extension he desires. But Schilling has surrendered 109 hits this season, most in the American League and second most in baseball. This is a pitcher who looks old, though he still has moments of brilliance.
In his post-game interview, Schilling sounded confused and distressed. "I'm not pitching well. That's what chisels away at your confidence -- when you suck. I didn't even give us a chance." The 40-year-old veteran said that he has no explanation for why he pitched so poorly, but that his health is not a factor. "I struggled. These last two starts have been terrible, and I'm better than that. It's just frustrating."
Schilling's pitches blended together and all looked the same. His fastball had nothing on it and was indistinguishable from his slider. Right now he looks totally lost, which certainly isn't what the Sox need. In his last two starts combined, Schilling has lasted just 9.1 innings and surrendered 12 runs. The result has been his first back-to-back losses since last August. Things have gotten ugly. After tonight's beating, Schilling's ERA shot up from 3.80 to 4.20.
But this hasn't come out of nowhere. In 94 1/3 innings this season, Schilling has allowed a whopping 109 hits while striking out just 71 batters. This is very unlike the pitcher that hitters have always feared and respected.
But the team's problems of late haven't really been the result of poor pitching. The hitters haven't been hitting.
Incredibly, Mike Lowell leads the club with 12 homers and 50 RBI. If you're scratching your head, you're not alone. This is a team with two of the best power hitters of their generation in David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. That's not to say that the Dynamic Duo aren't holding their own in other ways. Ortiz is leading the team with a .333 average, a .450 on-base-percentage, a .596 slugging percentage, and 27 doubles. Manny is hitting a respectable .293, despite his surprisingly low 10 homers and 39 RBI.
Of course there has been one particularly bright, if unexpected, spot this season. Dustin Pedroia has been a revelation and a surprise to everyone -- except, perhaps, to himself. Hitting an impressive .322, the rookie has proven to be a tough out this year, striking out quite infrequently. In fact, Pedroia has struck out just 16 times in 177 at-bats. By comparison, most of his teammates have a much higher strike out ratio. For example, Wily Mo Pena has 35 strike outs in just 91 at-bats; Eric Hinske has 17 strike outs in just 63 at-bats; and Doug Mirabelli has 20 strike outs in just 61 at-bats.
However, the struggles of JD Drew, Julio Lugo and Coco Crisp have been well documented. Everyone has been waiting for them to come around, but many are now wondering if that will ever happen this year. Entering Monday's game, Drew was batting .242, Crisp just .233, and Lugo a hapless and unfathomable .207 this season. To make matters worse, Lugo went 0-3 against the Braves on Monday, dropping his average to a woeful .205. That's just brutal.
Of greatest concern, this is the continuation of a disturbing trend that goes back to last season. Lugo hit just .219 in 49 games with the Dodgers after being traded by Tampa Bay.
But if you're looking for signs of life, there have actually been a few for this listless group.
Of Drew's five homers this year, three have come in the last week, including one tonight.
Crisp belted a pair of solo homers, both from the right side, for the first multi-homer game of his career. That's twice as many long balls as he had all season. Crisp's drought had resulted in just one homer in 227 at-bats. The speedy center fielder finished 4-for-4, and hopefully this is the catalyst that he -- and everyone else -- has been waiting for.
And there's even a ray of light for Lugo. Despite his pathetic average and .270 OBP, Lugo has struck out just 36 times this year. By comparison, Kevin Youkilis, one of the league's best hitters at .331, has struck out 35 times. So, Lugo is hitting the ball -- he's just hitting at people. What's more, Lugo has an unexplainable 34 RBI, to go along with 19 stolen bases in 19 attempts -- good enough for second in the AL.
Expect Schilling to continue having his ups and downs. He's 40-years-old and his best days are behind him. But every couple of starts he will wow us with an impressive performance that reminds us of how good he used to be on a consistent basis. Jon Lester will buoy the staff when he returns and will inject some much needed life. Tavarez has gone beyond most reasonable expectations, but his 4.97 ERA will make Lester seem like a Godsend. At the least, he will represent an upgrade.
Wily Mo Pena will never be anything more than a designated hitter, and in Boston he is stuck behind the greatest one to ever play the game. He will be trade bait at the deadline. Coco Crisp has played stellar defense -- better than anyone else in the Sox outfield -- but the team may weigh his value and listen to any compelling offers, should there be any for him. Crisp's greatest asset, besides speed and defense, it his relatively cheap contract.
The Sox could use another bat, and Crisp and Pena could be packaged, either together or with a pitcher like Kason Gabbard or Devern Hansack, to get one.
But one way or another, the Sox have built a nice lead in the AL East, and they should be a playoff team once again. A monumental meltdown is almost unthinkable, although we've seen it before in Boston. But that was then, this is is now. The 2007 Red Sox are a solid team with good chemistry. If all the hitters just start hitting up to their potential - consistently - and if the pitchers give their best efforts at the same time, this team will win 100 games this year, and perhaps even the World Series.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Yes, the Sox have seen a one-time 14 1/2 game lead (on May 29) shrink to just eight.
But, clearly, there are problems. On their recent West Coast road trip, the Sox finished 3-4, and scored two runs or fewer four times. They batted just .222, with seven home runs, and had almost twice as many whiffs as walks. Against Colorado last week, the Sox scored just five runs over three games.
But when the offense has faltered, the Sox have often been able to count on solid pitching. After all, the team is 44-25 and its .638 winning percentage is still the best in baseball.
At 9-1, the resurgent Josh Beckett has led the way. And the club has gotten some nice performances from rookie Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has pitched better than his 8-5 record would attest. Matsuzaka has more strike outs (93) and fewer hits (88) than innings pitched (92.2). Plagued - once again - by poor run support, veteran knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield has gone 7-7, but has surrendered just 78 hits in 88.1 innings. Even Julian Tavarez has surprised some, if not himself, and usually given the club a chance to win, or at least compete.
Curt Schilling was expected to be the staff stalwart, but his 6-4 start this season has to be considered a disappointment -- so far. Though he sports a winning record, it doesn't tell the whole story. Monday night against the Braves was just the latest example.
Schilling's outing was brief and not what he expected. In fact, it was his shortest since opening day.
Boston's one-time ace lasted just 4 1/3 against the Braves, getting shelled for a season high six runs on 10 hits. In the fifth, Schilling blew up, surrendering three runs - including a homer - on three hits. But some of his most glaring problems were these; Schilling, legendary for his control, issued two walks and had no strikeouts (if you're counting, that's 12 baserunners allowed). That's likely due to the fact that his once-dominant fastball topped out at 89 mph. It was only the second time in his lofty career that he failed to strike out at least one batter, the last coming in July of 1993. Consider this; the man is fourth among active pitchers in strikeouts. Folks, there is reason for concern here. This isn't an isolated incident.
In his last start, on June 13 against Colorado, Schilling lasted just five innings - in which he threw 98 pitches - giving up six runs (five earned), on nine hits. In that game, Schilling had a more Schilling-esque strikeout/walk ratio of 5/1. But, nonetheless, he still followed up his dominating one-hitter in Oakland with an ugly loss.
After the impressive outing against the A's, the Globe's Nick Carfado wrote that the time was now to offer Schilling the one-year, $13 million extension he desires. But Schilling has surrendered 109 hits this season, most in the American League and second most in baseball. This is a pitcher who looks old, though he still has moments of brilliance.
In his post-game interview, Schilling sounded confused and distressed. "I'm not pitching well. That's what chisels away at your confidence -- when you suck. I didn't even give us a chance." The 40-year-old veteran said that he has no explanation for why he pitched so poorly, but that his health is not a factor. "I struggled. These last two starts have been terrible, and I'm better than that. It's just frustrating."
Schilling's pitches blended together and all looked the same. His fastball had nothing on it and was indistinguishable from his slider. Right now he looks totally lost, which certainly isn't what the Sox need. In his last two starts combined, Schilling has lasted just 9.1 innings and surrendered 12 runs. The result has been his first back-to-back losses since last August. Things have gotten ugly. After tonight's beating, Schilling's ERA shot up from 3.80 to 4.20.
But this hasn't come out of nowhere. In 94 1/3 innings this season, Schilling has allowed a whopping 109 hits while striking out just 71 batters. This is very unlike the pitcher that hitters have always feared and respected.
But the team's problems of late haven't really been the result of poor pitching. The hitters haven't been hitting.
Incredibly, Mike Lowell leads the club with 12 homers and 50 RBI. If you're scratching your head, you're not alone. This is a team with two of the best power hitters of their generation in David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. That's not to say that the Dynamic Duo aren't holding their own in other ways. Ortiz is leading the team with a .333 average, a .450 on-base-percentage, a .596 slugging percentage, and 27 doubles. Manny is hitting a respectable .293, despite his surprisingly low 10 homers and 39 RBI.
Of course there has been one particularly bright, if unexpected, spot this season. Dustin Pedroia has been a revelation and a surprise to everyone -- except, perhaps, to himself. Hitting an impressive .322, the rookie has proven to be a tough out this year, striking out quite infrequently. In fact, Pedroia has struck out just 16 times in 177 at-bats. By comparison, most of his teammates have a much higher strike out ratio. For example, Wily Mo Pena has 35 strike outs in just 91 at-bats; Eric Hinske has 17 strike outs in just 63 at-bats; and Doug Mirabelli has 20 strike outs in just 61 at-bats.
However, the struggles of JD Drew, Julio Lugo and Coco Crisp have been well documented. Everyone has been waiting for them to come around, but many are now wondering if that will ever happen this year. Entering Monday's game, Drew was batting .242, Crisp just .233, and Lugo a hapless and unfathomable .207 this season. To make matters worse, Lugo went 0-3 against the Braves on Monday, dropping his average to a woeful .205. That's just brutal.
Of greatest concern, this is the continuation of a disturbing trend that goes back to last season. Lugo hit just .219 in 49 games with the Dodgers after being traded by Tampa Bay.
But if you're looking for signs of life, there have actually been a few for this listless group.
Of Drew's five homers this year, three have come in the last week, including one tonight.
Crisp belted a pair of solo homers, both from the right side, for the first multi-homer game of his career. That's twice as many long balls as he had all season. Crisp's drought had resulted in just one homer in 227 at-bats. The speedy center fielder finished 4-for-4, and hopefully this is the catalyst that he -- and everyone else -- has been waiting for.
And there's even a ray of light for Lugo. Despite his pathetic average and .270 OBP, Lugo has struck out just 36 times this year. By comparison, Kevin Youkilis, one of the league's best hitters at .331, has struck out 35 times. So, Lugo is hitting the ball -- he's just hitting at people. What's more, Lugo has an unexplainable 34 RBI, to go along with 19 stolen bases in 19 attempts -- good enough for second in the AL.
Expect Schilling to continue having his ups and downs. He's 40-years-old and his best days are behind him. But every couple of starts he will wow us with an impressive performance that reminds us of how good he used to be on a consistent basis. Jon Lester will buoy the staff when he returns and will inject some much needed life. Tavarez has gone beyond most reasonable expectations, but his 4.97 ERA will make Lester seem like a Godsend. At the least, he will represent an upgrade.
Wily Mo Pena will never be anything more than a designated hitter, and in Boston he is stuck behind the greatest one to ever play the game. He will be trade bait at the deadline. Coco Crisp has played stellar defense -- better than anyone else in the Sox outfield -- but the team may weigh his value and listen to any compelling offers, should there be any for him. Crisp's greatest asset, besides speed and defense, it his relatively cheap contract.
The Sox could use another bat, and Crisp and Pena could be packaged, either together or with a pitcher like Kason Gabbard or Devern Hansack, to get one.
But one way or another, the Sox have built a nice lead in the AL East, and they should be a playoff team once again. A monumental meltdown is almost unthinkable, although we've seen it before in Boston. But that was then, this is is now. The 2007 Red Sox are a solid team with good chemistry. If all the hitters just start hitting up to their potential - consistently - and if the pitchers give their best efforts at the same time, this team will win 100 games this year, and perhaps even the World Series.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Thursday, June 07, 2007
SCHILLING'S GEM A HEARTBREAKER
Is Curt Schilling an eventual Hall of Famer? Perhaps.
One of the best pitchers of his generation, Schilling's resume is impressive: two World Series rings; one World Series co-MVP; 213 wins, and counting; an average of nearly a strike out per inning over his more than 3000 innings pitched; 20 career shutouts; a career 3.44 ERA; and one very famous bloody sock.
But the one thing that Schilling's resume is missing is one thing he would undoubtedly love to finally add -- a no-hitter. He's come close on a couple of occasions, but never more so than on Thursday in Oakland. On this day he was tantalizingly, frustratingly close.
With two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Schilling shook off catcher Jason Varitek, who called for a first-pitch slider to Shannon Stewart. Instead, Schilling threw a fastball to Stewart, who promptly lined a a clean single to right field.
And with that hit, Schilling's bid for a no-hitter was washed away once again. In the end, Schilling ended up with the third one-hitter of his career, as he'd previously done in 1992 and 2002.
The 40-year-old would have been the third-oldest pitcher to pitch a no-hitter. Nolan Ryan did it as a 43- and 44-year old, and Cy Young was 41 when he pitched a no-hitter for the Red Sox in 1908.
But it was a tremendous outing, nonetheless, that helped the Sox break a season-high four-game losing streak. The outstanding performance marked Schilling's first shutout since May 14, 2003 (as a member of the Diamondbacks), and first complete game since 2004.
The veteran righty needed the victory personally about as much as the Red Sox did as a team. Coming into the game, Schilling had just won just once in his previous five starts. But throwing a very efficient 100 pitches, Schilling struck out four and issued no walks in his complete-game shutout. With the win, Schilling improved to 6-2 and showed that on his best days he's still among the game's best.
It was just the kind of reminder that Schilling and the Red Sox needed. This season has been a bit of a mixed bag for old # 38. The 6-2 record looks good, but there have been some rough outings this year that have made Schilling look old. The 90 hits and 66 strike outs in 85 innings this season are below Schilling's high standards and very impressive career history.
At this late point in his storied career, Schilling may not be as consistent as he once was. But on days like this he reminds everyone of just how great he still is from time to time.
Schilling and his rotation-mates haven't been the club's concern in recent days.
In the three games against Oakland, the Red Sox have scored a grand total of three runs. Maybe it's the West Coast jet lag, but whatever it is the Sox bats have been sound asleep.
When the Red Sox finally get their potentially potent offense going, and start getting the kind of production they expect from Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, and JD Drew, the best team in the American League may eventually reveal itself to be he best team in the world in 2007.
And Curt Schilling has been, and should continue to be, a big part of that success.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
One of the best pitchers of his generation, Schilling's resume is impressive: two World Series rings; one World Series co-MVP; 213 wins, and counting; an average of nearly a strike out per inning over his more than 3000 innings pitched; 20 career shutouts; a career 3.44 ERA; and one very famous bloody sock.
But the one thing that Schilling's resume is missing is one thing he would undoubtedly love to finally add -- a no-hitter. He's come close on a couple of occasions, but never more so than on Thursday in Oakland. On this day he was tantalizingly, frustratingly close.
With two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Schilling shook off catcher Jason Varitek, who called for a first-pitch slider to Shannon Stewart. Instead, Schilling threw a fastball to Stewart, who promptly lined a a clean single to right field.
And with that hit, Schilling's bid for a no-hitter was washed away once again. In the end, Schilling ended up with the third one-hitter of his career, as he'd previously done in 1992 and 2002.
The 40-year-old would have been the third-oldest pitcher to pitch a no-hitter. Nolan Ryan did it as a 43- and 44-year old, and Cy Young was 41 when he pitched a no-hitter for the Red Sox in 1908.
But it was a tremendous outing, nonetheless, that helped the Sox break a season-high four-game losing streak. The outstanding performance marked Schilling's first shutout since May 14, 2003 (as a member of the Diamondbacks), and first complete game since 2004.
The veteran righty needed the victory personally about as much as the Red Sox did as a team. Coming into the game, Schilling had just won just once in his previous five starts. But throwing a very efficient 100 pitches, Schilling struck out four and issued no walks in his complete-game shutout. With the win, Schilling improved to 6-2 and showed that on his best days he's still among the game's best.
It was just the kind of reminder that Schilling and the Red Sox needed. This season has been a bit of a mixed bag for old # 38. The 6-2 record looks good, but there have been some rough outings this year that have made Schilling look old. The 90 hits and 66 strike outs in 85 innings this season are below Schilling's high standards and very impressive career history.
At this late point in his storied career, Schilling may not be as consistent as he once was. But on days like this he reminds everyone of just how great he still is from time to time.
Schilling and his rotation-mates haven't been the club's concern in recent days.
In the three games against Oakland, the Red Sox have scored a grand total of three runs. Maybe it's the West Coast jet lag, but whatever it is the Sox bats have been sound asleep.
When the Red Sox finally get their potentially potent offense going, and start getting the kind of production they expect from Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, and JD Drew, the best team in the American League may eventually reveal itself to be he best team in the world in 2007.
And Curt Schilling has been, and should continue to be, a big part of that success.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
GREAT (AND UNREALISTIC) EXPECTATIONS
Take a load off, Fanny
Take a load for free
Take a load off, Fanny
And you put the load right on me
- "The Weight", by the Band
You can bet the burden will weigh heavily on Roger Clemens when he makes his celebrated return to the Yankees' rotation for the first time in four years. The Bombers appear to be in a free fall at the moment, little more than a month into the 2007 season, and Clemens is being viewed as their savior. Saving any team, especially the Yankees, is one lofty expectation and a mighty heavy burden for any one player.
But when that player is three months shy of his 45th birthday, those expectations appear outsize and unrealistic.
As a Red Sox fan, sure I'd like to see Clemens finish his career in Boston this year. It'd be a story book ending to a storied career, and the Sox look like genuine World Series contenders at this point. But I'd be weary of hanging all my hopes on him, or his ability to pitch like he used to. As this stage of his career, Clemens is a six-inning pitcher. In his last 200 starts, dating back to 2000, Clemens has exactly one complete game. That came in a Yankee uniform in 2003.
Backed by the rejuvenated Red Sox bullpen, a six-inning Clemens outing would be sufficient and likely result in some wins. In New York, it could be the source of much grieving. The New York bullpen is a mess, and it needs help -- lots of it.
Take, for example, future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera.
The Yankee closer already has three losses this year, after having just five in 2006. And Rivera has also blown two saves already this spring, but had just three all of last season. At present, Rivera is sporting a bloated 8.44 ERA and opponents are batting .318 against him. Last year those numbers were 1.80 and .223, respectively.
The numbers, apparently heralding Rivera's rather sudden decline, go on and on. Last year he gave up a total of just three home runs; this year he's already given up two. In just 10 2/3 innings this season, Rivera has allowed 14 hits, resulting in 10 earned runs. Last year he allowed just 15 earned runs over the entire season.
Sure, if the Yankees get the best possible production from each of their starters they should, in combination with their formidable lineup, win plenty of games -- perhaps even 90-95 -- and possibly earn yet another playoff berth. But consider this; Mike Mussina is 38, and Andy Petite will be 35 next month. Both have already been injured this year, as have Chien-Ming Wang and rookie Phil Hughes, who, by the way, has made exactly two major league starts and has a 1-1 record.
And in case you didn't know, Mussina and Petite both averaged just six innings per start last season, and Petite was in the pitcher-friendly N.L. And guess what? Clemens averaged just six innings a game last year as well, the lowest of his career.
Having things go perfectly over the course of a baseball season is unrealistic and almost never happens, as the Yankees should have learned already. To expect the best possible production from their staff, now anchored by a soon-to-be 45-year-old pitcher, is a fool's game.
So far this year, Yankees starters -- all 10 of them -- have averaged just five innings per start, a major league worst. That won't get it done in October. By then, an already worn out bullpen will be on life support and resemble a MASH unit. Oh sure, they'll be in the market for bullpen help like almost everyone else -- except the Red Sox.
Assuming that Clemens makes five starts per month from June through September, the Yankees will pay him $900K for each of them. All things considered -- his age, his six-inning endurance, his bullpen, the dangerous A.L. hitters he'll regularly face -- that doesn't seem like a wise investment. It's yet to be determined if he'll actually earn it.
One way or another, it'll be interesting to watch the story unfold. But Clemens has become a villain in Boston once again -- once and for all.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Take a load for free
Take a load off, Fanny
And you put the load right on me
- "The Weight", by the Band
You can bet the burden will weigh heavily on Roger Clemens when he makes his celebrated return to the Yankees' rotation for the first time in four years. The Bombers appear to be in a free fall at the moment, little more than a month into the 2007 season, and Clemens is being viewed as their savior. Saving any team, especially the Yankees, is one lofty expectation and a mighty heavy burden for any one player.
But when that player is three months shy of his 45th birthday, those expectations appear outsize and unrealistic.
As a Red Sox fan, sure I'd like to see Clemens finish his career in Boston this year. It'd be a story book ending to a storied career, and the Sox look like genuine World Series contenders at this point. But I'd be weary of hanging all my hopes on him, or his ability to pitch like he used to. As this stage of his career, Clemens is a six-inning pitcher. In his last 200 starts, dating back to 2000, Clemens has exactly one complete game. That came in a Yankee uniform in 2003.
Backed by the rejuvenated Red Sox bullpen, a six-inning Clemens outing would be sufficient and likely result in some wins. In New York, it could be the source of much grieving. The New York bullpen is a mess, and it needs help -- lots of it.
Take, for example, future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera.
The Yankee closer already has three losses this year, after having just five in 2006. And Rivera has also blown two saves already this spring, but had just three all of last season. At present, Rivera is sporting a bloated 8.44 ERA and opponents are batting .318 against him. Last year those numbers were 1.80 and .223, respectively.
The numbers, apparently heralding Rivera's rather sudden decline, go on and on. Last year he gave up a total of just three home runs; this year he's already given up two. In just 10 2/3 innings this season, Rivera has allowed 14 hits, resulting in 10 earned runs. Last year he allowed just 15 earned runs over the entire season.
Sure, if the Yankees get the best possible production from each of their starters they should, in combination with their formidable lineup, win plenty of games -- perhaps even 90-95 -- and possibly earn yet another playoff berth. But consider this; Mike Mussina is 38, and Andy Petite will be 35 next month. Both have already been injured this year, as have Chien-Ming Wang and rookie Phil Hughes, who, by the way, has made exactly two major league starts and has a 1-1 record.
And in case you didn't know, Mussina and Petite both averaged just six innings per start last season, and Petite was in the pitcher-friendly N.L. And guess what? Clemens averaged just six innings a game last year as well, the lowest of his career.
Having things go perfectly over the course of a baseball season is unrealistic and almost never happens, as the Yankees should have learned already. To expect the best possible production from their staff, now anchored by a soon-to-be 45-year-old pitcher, is a fool's game.
So far this year, Yankees starters -- all 10 of them -- have averaged just five innings per start, a major league worst. That won't get it done in October. By then, an already worn out bullpen will be on life support and resemble a MASH unit. Oh sure, they'll be in the market for bullpen help like almost everyone else -- except the Red Sox.
Assuming that Clemens makes five starts per month from June through September, the Yankees will pay him $900K for each of them. All things considered -- his age, his six-inning endurance, his bullpen, the dangerous A.L. hitters he'll regularly face -- that doesn't seem like a wise investment. It's yet to be determined if he'll actually earn it.
One way or another, it'll be interesting to watch the story unfold. But Clemens has become a villain in Boston once again -- once and for all.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Sunday, May 06, 2007
ROCKET MAN IS A MERCENARY MAN
Roger Clemens is a Yankee once again. The very notion is sure to ruffle the feathers of any Red Sox fan. Back to the Evil Empire goes a Red Sox legend.
Clemens, the greatest pitcher of his generation -- some would argue the greatest ever -- has revealed himself to be a mercenary, a man who will grant his services to the highest bidder.
How else can Clemens’ decision to sign with the Bronx Bombers be explained?
Returning to
Instead, Clemens joins a 14-15 Yankee team devastated by injury, and in last place in the A.L. East. Injury and unpredictability have served to burden an already unbalanced bullpen, and that relief core has given manager Joe Torre fits, potentially putting his very job in jeopardy.
Consider this: on Monday, the Yankees are set to become the first team in major league history to use 10 starters in its first 30 games.
The Clemens signing apparently caught the Red Sox by surprise. The team issued a statement saying that they had “offered a substantial salary” to Clemens, and yet they came up short. Or they were simply spurned.
In February, the 44-year-old Clemens told a
Despite making the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros patiently wait while he pondered his decision, Clemens declared, "I'm not keeping anybody hanging. I don't want to play."
Yeah, whatever.
The Yankees will reportedly pay Clemens a pro-rated $28 million salary for the remainder of the season -- or $4.5 million per month -- and allow him the same generous privileges the Astros granted him. The deal will also cost the Yankees approximately $7.4 million in additional luxury tax, amounting to a $26 million investment for just one season.
In a slight to the Red Sox, Clemens made these pointed remarks regarding the Yankees: "Let's face it -- these guys know how to win."
That remains to be seen.
How can the Red Sox and their fans find solace? Well, Clemens is entering his 24th season, a time when the few pitchers who’ve lasted as long were in serious decline.
In his previous five-year stint with the Yankees, Clemens had an average ERA of 4.01, and he was 4-8 years younger during that period.
Sure, over the last two seasons, with the Astros, Clemens posted remarkable ERAs of 1.87 and 2.30, respectively. But a continuation of that type of performance would be, by historical standards, almost superhuman.
At this point in his long and storied career, even Clemens knows his body can't hold up to the rigors of an entire MLB season. In order to help the Yankees make a stretch run and gain a playoff berth, Clemens needs to avoid a late-season fade. Yes, he has done the seemingly impossible over the last few years, but history suggests that a pitcher who will be 45 in August can't hold up like this much longer.
Gaylord Perry pitched 200 innings when he was 43 but then retired the following season at age 44. Steve Carlton never cracked 200 innings after the age of 39 and retired at age 43. Don Sutton had productive seasons at 41 and 42, but was out of the majors at age 43. Tom Seaver had a productive season age 40 but was out of the majors at age 41. He attempted a comeback with the Mets at the age of 42, but was unsuccessful.
If Clemens’ return to the A.L. results in anything less than dominance, it won’t serve the Yankees very well. They need more than a mediocre, multi-million dollar pitcher.
Realizing the limitations of a man his age, both the Red Sox and Astros told Clemens they'd prefer him to join them in late June or early July. But, according to agent Randy Hendricks, the desperate Yankees were willing to take a chance and said: "We'd like you yesterday."
Clemens hopes to start pitching in minor league games in about two weeks.
The Rocket declared. "I expect to perform like I was 25; that's my expectations. Anything short of that would be a disappointment."
I think he can expect to be disappointed, especially in the potent American League.
The Red Sox, and their fans, can take hope; at just 23-years old, lefty Jon Lester is a considerably younger, and cheaper, alternative to Roger Clemens.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Thursday, April 19, 2007
LESTER, HANSACK HEAT UP
Though Julian Tavarez did a respectable job against the Blue Jays today (three runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings), he's simply filling in as the Sox number five starter. You could say he's holding down the fort, so to speak. It's just a matter of time before Jon Lester makes a much ballyhooed return to the Sox rotation to reclaim the role he held, and the promise he displayed, last year.
Lester will pitch a side session in Boston on Sunday, and then meet with team executives to discuss the timeline for his return to the big league club. Between now and then, the lefty will make his fourth, and perhaps final, start in Single A for the Greenville Drive. Lester is expected to pitch five-innings on Friday in Savannah against the Sand Gnats, possibly throwing as many as 85 pitches.
After that, it appears the Sox intend to have the 23-year-old begin making starts for Triple A Pawtucket, the first tentatively scheduled for Wednesday afternoon in Rochester against the Twins' Triple A affiliate, the Red Wings.
Since rehab assignments for pitchers can't last longer than 30 days, and Lester's DL stint is retroactive to March 28, the Sox will have to place Lester on a roster by the end of next week. That assignment will likely be with Pawtucket first, before resuming his spot with the Red Sox in May, or even June.
Lester's road back from lymphoma treatment has been steady and promising, but with little of the fanfare that accompanied his every start last season, when expectations were so incredibly high.
In Lester's first rehab start for Greenville, he went four innings against the Charleston RiverDogs, a Yankees affiliate. In that debut game, the young lefty allowed just two hits and one walk, striking out five. Throwing a total of 54 pitches, 37 for strikes, Lester went four innings and even hit 96 mph at one point. If you're doing the math, that's 69% of his pitches for strikes. All of it was very encouraging.
His second rehab start went about as well as his first. Again working on a strict pitch count (51 pitches), the Sox hurler allowed three hits and no runs over four innings, striking out five and walking one.
Perhaps Lester's most impressive stat after his two starts for the Drive; no runs in eight innings.
Lester’s third scheduled rehab appearance was limited to a 75-pitch bullpen session under simulated game conditions on Sunday. The lefty was supposed to pitch the final five innings in a replay of Saturday night’s rain shortened contest. However, after he began warming up, the umpires ruled that he was ineligible to pitch because his name wasn’t on the previous night’s lineup card. So he'll take his turn tomorrow in an extended outing in Savannah instead.
But, before Lester takes his turn in the Sox rotation again, the team may see yet another impressive young performer from last season first.
Devern Hansack has made two-consecutive sizzling starts for Pawtucket. In the latest, Hansack struck out 10 in five scoreless innings in a 5-3 win over Durham Wednesday. Hansack has now whiffed an International League-leading 20 batters in just 10 2/3 innings, while allowing just one earned run.
So ultimately, Julian Tavarez, despite his performance today, shouldn't get too comfortable in the fifth spot of the Sox rotation. He isn't long for the job because it wasn't really his in the first place. The Sox youth movement will continue, and Tavarez will have to make room for the kids.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Lester will pitch a side session in Boston on Sunday, and then meet with team executives to discuss the timeline for his return to the big league club. Between now and then, the lefty will make his fourth, and perhaps final, start in Single A for the Greenville Drive. Lester is expected to pitch five-innings on Friday in Savannah against the Sand Gnats, possibly throwing as many as 85 pitches.
After that, it appears the Sox intend to have the 23-year-old begin making starts for Triple A Pawtucket, the first tentatively scheduled for Wednesday afternoon in Rochester against the Twins' Triple A affiliate, the Red Wings.
Since rehab assignments for pitchers can't last longer than 30 days, and Lester's DL stint is retroactive to March 28, the Sox will have to place Lester on a roster by the end of next week. That assignment will likely be with Pawtucket first, before resuming his spot with the Red Sox in May, or even June.
Lester's road back from lymphoma treatment has been steady and promising, but with little of the fanfare that accompanied his every start last season, when expectations were so incredibly high.
In Lester's first rehab start for Greenville, he went four innings against the Charleston RiverDogs, a Yankees affiliate. In that debut game, the young lefty allowed just two hits and one walk, striking out five. Throwing a total of 54 pitches, 37 for strikes, Lester went four innings and even hit 96 mph at one point. If you're doing the math, that's 69% of his pitches for strikes. All of it was very encouraging.
His second rehab start went about as well as his first. Again working on a strict pitch count (51 pitches), the Sox hurler allowed three hits and no runs over four innings, striking out five and walking one.
Perhaps Lester's most impressive stat after his two starts for the Drive; no runs in eight innings.
Lester’s third scheduled rehab appearance was limited to a 75-pitch bullpen session under simulated game conditions on Sunday. The lefty was supposed to pitch the final five innings in a replay of Saturday night’s rain shortened contest. However, after he began warming up, the umpires ruled that he was ineligible to pitch because his name wasn’t on the previous night’s lineup card. So he'll take his turn tomorrow in an extended outing in Savannah instead.
But, before Lester takes his turn in the Sox rotation again, the team may see yet another impressive young performer from last season first.
Devern Hansack has made two-consecutive sizzling starts for Pawtucket. In the latest, Hansack struck out 10 in five scoreless innings in a 5-3 win over Durham Wednesday. Hansack has now whiffed an International League-leading 20 batters in just 10 2/3 innings, while allowing just one earned run.
So ultimately, Julian Tavarez, despite his performance today, shouldn't get too comfortable in the fifth spot of the Sox rotation. He isn't long for the job because it wasn't really his in the first place. The Sox youth movement will continue, and Tavarez will have to make room for the kids.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Saturday, April 14, 2007
AQUISITION OF PROSPECT OVERLOOKED
In a move that was mostly overlooked, the Red Sox traded catcher Alberto Castillo to the Orioles for outfielder Cory Keylor at the end of spring training.
Castillo was a non-roster invitee in Sox camp, but at age 37 clearly wasn't the solution in the Sox quest to lower the burden on an aging Jason Varitek. So, the Sox had no reservations in parting ways with Castillo. But what they got in return was quite a surprise.
The 6-3, 216-pound Keylor was the Orioles' minor league player of the year last season after hitting .294 with 10 homers and 68 RBIs in 124 games in Double-A ball.
The 27-year-old Keylor, who bats left but throws right, was a non-roster invitee in the Orioles camp this spring. Apparently the Orioles have plenty of organizational depth in the outfield and didn't feel they had room for Keylor. But it begs the obvious question; why would Baltimore give up its minor league player of the year in return for a 37-year-old catcher?
Only the Orioles know for sure, but Keylor's fast track to the Majors was derailed on a couple of occasions over the last few years.
Selected by Baltimore in the 14th Round (413rd overall) of 2001 amateur entry draft, the Ohio native played at Ohio University where he became the Bobcats' all-time home run leader with 34 career blasts. Yet, despite his obvious talents, Keylor has never made it above AA ball. It's not due to a lack of talent, but rather the result of multiple injuries.
The outfielder broke his kneecap in 2003 and then broke the hamate bone in his hand in 2005. If that injury sounds familiar, it's the same one that hampered Wily Mo Pena last season. But Bowie Baysox (the Orioles AA team) manager Don Werner said the wrist injury didn't give Keylor any trouble last year. Werner also said that Keylor can hit the ball to all fields, making him a tough out.
Now with the Red Sox AA affiliate Portland Sea Dogs, Keylor has worked on increasing his speed, which makes him a base-stealing threat. And defensively, Keylor's strong arm can save runs from right field.
Batting third for the Sea Dogs, Keylor is hitting .250 in 12 at-bats over Portland's first three games this season.
Though the Red Sox have plenty of outfield depth in the minors with David Murphy, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brandon Moss, the name Cory Keylor could become more familiar to Sox fans in time.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Castillo was a non-roster invitee in Sox camp, but at age 37 clearly wasn't the solution in the Sox quest to lower the burden on an aging Jason Varitek. So, the Sox had no reservations in parting ways with Castillo. But what they got in return was quite a surprise.
The 6-3, 216-pound Keylor was the Orioles' minor league player of the year last season after hitting .294 with 10 homers and 68 RBIs in 124 games in Double-A ball.
The 27-year-old Keylor, who bats left but throws right, was a non-roster invitee in the Orioles camp this spring. Apparently the Orioles have plenty of organizational depth in the outfield and didn't feel they had room for Keylor. But it begs the obvious question; why would Baltimore give up its minor league player of the year in return for a 37-year-old catcher?
Only the Orioles know for sure, but Keylor's fast track to the Majors was derailed on a couple of occasions over the last few years.
Selected by Baltimore in the 14th Round (413rd overall) of 2001 amateur entry draft, the Ohio native played at Ohio University where he became the Bobcats' all-time home run leader with 34 career blasts. Yet, despite his obvious talents, Keylor has never made it above AA ball. It's not due to a lack of talent, but rather the result of multiple injuries.
The outfielder broke his kneecap in 2003 and then broke the hamate bone in his hand in 2005. If that injury sounds familiar, it's the same one that hampered Wily Mo Pena last season. But Bowie Baysox (the Orioles AA team) manager Don Werner said the wrist injury didn't give Keylor any trouble last year. Werner also said that Keylor can hit the ball to all fields, making him a tough out.
Now with the Red Sox AA affiliate Portland Sea Dogs, Keylor has worked on increasing his speed, which makes him a base-stealing threat. And defensively, Keylor's strong arm can save runs from right field.
Batting third for the Sea Dogs, Keylor is hitting .250 in 12 at-bats over Portland's first three games this season.
Though the Red Sox have plenty of outfield depth in the minors with David Murphy, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brandon Moss, the name Cory Keylor could become more familiar to Sox fans in time.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Monday, April 09, 2007
PINIERO'S IMPLOSION CONTINUES
Brought In To Be The Sox Closer, Piniero Can't Get Outs In A Set-Up Role. In Fact, He Can't Even Find the Strike Zone.
Joel Piniero was brought to Boston during the offseason to become the Red Sox closer. It was his job to lose, and it didn't take long for that to happen. Piniero lost the job before Spring training had even ended. And last night, in Texas, he reminded everyone why.
After Curt Schilling had limited the Rangers to just one run on four hits, over seven superb innings, Piniero entered the game in the top of the eighth with the Sox holding a 3-1 lead. The result was a near disaster. Piniero immediately walked the eighth and ninth batters in the Rangers' lineup and proceeded to load the bases on a bunt single. Before he could record a single out, Pineiro was unceremoniously, and mercifully, yanked. The man simply couldn't do his job.
Exasperated Red Sox fans, and likely Curt Schilling as well, breathed a sigh of relief. Thankfully, Piniero was gone and couldn't do any more damage.
Through seven innings, Schilling had pitched a gem, striking out six and walking one. In fact, it looked as if the veteran righty was getting stronger as the game wore on, retiring the last 10 batters he faced, and 14 of the last 15.. But after 102 pitches, Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell decided that Schilling had done more than enough, and that it wouldn't be prudent to push a 40-year-old so early in the season with so many more innings, starts, and months to go.
Of course, Jonathan Papelbon soon saved the day, recording five outs and earning his second save of the young season. In the process, Papelbon reminded everyone of his tremendous value. No one was more impressed, or more pleased, than Schilling.
"You just can't understand how unbelievable that is," Schilling said. "You just can't. Until you're on the mound, you cannot understand that there aren't very many guys in the history of the game that can do that."
Of course, all's well that ends well. But Piniero's poor performance can't be dismissed and it couldn't have done anything good for his confidence, or the team's confidence in him. At just 28-years-old, Piniero should be in his prime. But instead, over the last few seasons, he seems to have regressed and that trend appears to be continuing unabated.
In 2001, Piniero went 6-2 for the Mariners with a 2.03 ERA, showing just how much potential he had. The next year, that potential was proven to be genuine talent when he improved to 14-7, with a 3.24 ERA. In 2003, his wins and losses both increased, as he ended the year at 16-11 and still managed an impressive 3.78 ERA. Seattle thought they had a star in the making, and then everything went wrong.
Over the next three seasons, Piniero went from darling to disaster, posting these disappointing numbers in succession: 6-11, 4.67; 7-11, 5.62; and 8-13, 6.36.
And because he finished a few games in relief for the Mariners last year, earning one save along the way, the Red Sox somehow thought that he could be their closer in 2007. Wrong.
This kid is going in the wrong direction, and has likely lost the confidence of the team and its brass already. There have been rumors that he could be on the trading block, and may be used as bait, now that Papelbon has re-emerged as the closer extraordinaire. But the question is, at $4 million this year, who could be interested?
So far this season, which is only a week old, Piniero has appeared in four games for a total of 2 1/3 innings. In that brief period he has allowed four hits, two walks, and has an ERA of 7.71. That's not the stuff of a highly prized pitcher. At this point, the Sox would be lucky to get another team to take him off their hands and pay half his salary.
Sure, it's still quite early and things could change. But what over the last three years, or so far in this one, would lead anyone to believe that things are about to turn around for Piniero? As far as I can tell, there's been nothing and I hope we've seen the last of him in any type of critical situation when a game is on the line. Mop-up duty, when a game is out of hand and clearly decided, would seem to suit him best at this point. At such times, there would be no pressure on him at all. Those would seem to be the ideal circumstances for Piniero to attempt to regain his confidence and get his once promising career back on track -- if he still can.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Joel Piniero was brought to Boston during the offseason to become the Red Sox closer. It was his job to lose, and it didn't take long for that to happen. Piniero lost the job before Spring training had even ended. And last night, in Texas, he reminded everyone why.
After Curt Schilling had limited the Rangers to just one run on four hits, over seven superb innings, Piniero entered the game in the top of the eighth with the Sox holding a 3-1 lead. The result was a near disaster. Piniero immediately walked the eighth and ninth batters in the Rangers' lineup and proceeded to load the bases on a bunt single. Before he could record a single out, Pineiro was unceremoniously, and mercifully, yanked. The man simply couldn't do his job.
Exasperated Red Sox fans, and likely Curt Schilling as well, breathed a sigh of relief. Thankfully, Piniero was gone and couldn't do any more damage.
Through seven innings, Schilling had pitched a gem, striking out six and walking one. In fact, it looked as if the veteran righty was getting stronger as the game wore on, retiring the last 10 batters he faced, and 14 of the last 15.. But after 102 pitches, Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell decided that Schilling had done more than enough, and that it wouldn't be prudent to push a 40-year-old so early in the season with so many more innings, starts, and months to go.
Of course, Jonathan Papelbon soon saved the day, recording five outs and earning his second save of the young season. In the process, Papelbon reminded everyone of his tremendous value. No one was more impressed, or more pleased, than Schilling.
"You just can't understand how unbelievable that is," Schilling said. "You just can't. Until you're on the mound, you cannot understand that there aren't very many guys in the history of the game that can do that."
Of course, all's well that ends well. But Piniero's poor performance can't be dismissed and it couldn't have done anything good for his confidence, or the team's confidence in him. At just 28-years-old, Piniero should be in his prime. But instead, over the last few seasons, he seems to have regressed and that trend appears to be continuing unabated.
In 2001, Piniero went 6-2 for the Mariners with a 2.03 ERA, showing just how much potential he had. The next year, that potential was proven to be genuine talent when he improved to 14-7, with a 3.24 ERA. In 2003, his wins and losses both increased, as he ended the year at 16-11 and still managed an impressive 3.78 ERA. Seattle thought they had a star in the making, and then everything went wrong.
Over the next three seasons, Piniero went from darling to disaster, posting these disappointing numbers in succession: 6-11, 4.67; 7-11, 5.62; and 8-13, 6.36.
And because he finished a few games in relief for the Mariners last year, earning one save along the way, the Red Sox somehow thought that he could be their closer in 2007. Wrong.
This kid is going in the wrong direction, and has likely lost the confidence of the team and its brass already. There have been rumors that he could be on the trading block, and may be used as bait, now that Papelbon has re-emerged as the closer extraordinaire. But the question is, at $4 million this year, who could be interested?
So far this season, which is only a week old, Piniero has appeared in four games for a total of 2 1/3 innings. In that brief period he has allowed four hits, two walks, and has an ERA of 7.71. That's not the stuff of a highly prized pitcher. At this point, the Sox would be lucky to get another team to take him off their hands and pay half his salary.
Sure, it's still quite early and things could change. But what over the last three years, or so far in this one, would lead anyone to believe that things are about to turn around for Piniero? As far as I can tell, there's been nothing and I hope we've seen the last of him in any type of critical situation when a game is on the line. Mop-up duty, when a game is out of hand and clearly decided, would seem to suit him best at this point. At such times, there would be no pressure on him at all. Those would seem to be the ideal circumstances for Piniero to attempt to regain his confidence and get his once promising career back on track -- if he still can.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Thursday, April 05, 2007
MATSUZAKA LIVES UP TO HYPE
It's Only One Start, but the Japanese Rookie Looks Like an Ace
So far so good. In just his first -- and much anticipated -- Major League game, Daisuke Matsuzaka lived up to his advanced billing and all the hype. If he's anywhere near as good as he was today against the Royals, the Red Sox will get a nice return on their $103 million investment.
Matsuzaka struck out 10 in seven innings, leading the Red Sox to a 4-1 victory over the Kansas City. But it wasn't just the ten K's that were impressive; Dice-K allowed just six hits. Striking more than one batter per inning, and allowing less than one hit per inning, is one hell of an introduction to the Major Leagues.
Matsuzaka threw an array of pitches, including fastballs, changeups and breaking balls that frustrated Kansas City hitters. During one stretch, Matsuzaka retired 10 batters in a row, striking out the side on just 14 pitches in the fourth. And despite the cold, blustery weather, Dice-K consistently threw in the mid-90s, reaching 95 mph on the scoreboard radar gun.
The Japanese rookie seemed unfazed by the 36-degree game-time temperature, or the 200 members of the media watching his every move. He never caved to the weather or the pressure, throwing 74 of his 108 pitches for strikes. Sure this was just the lowly Royals, but how can you not be impressed?
Jonathan Papelbon picked up right where he left off last year, striking out two of the three batters he faced for his first save. That's all the more reason for confidence and optimism.
The Red Sox got their first win after an Opening Day loss, and the "sky is falling" segment of Red Sox Nation took a collective sigh of relief and can now relax -- at least a little. There are 160 games yet to go, and if the Sox win 60 percent of them, they'll wind up with 97 victories. That would be considered a very successful year, and almost assuredly qualify them for the playoffs in October.
At this point, with a #3 pitcher who looks like he's got the stuff of a #1, that possibility is more than remote; in fact, it's quite distinct. The key is keeping everyone, or mostly everyone, healthy. That may be a lot to ask, but there's always the prospect of Roger Clemens joining the staff in the not too distant future or, barring such a dream scenario, Jon Lester being ready and available should someone fail or falter.
Assuming that Curt Schilling's rough start was just an aberration, the Sox rotation could be nasty and among the best in baseball. With a guy like Matsuzaka in the third spot of the rotation, how couldn't it be?
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
So far so good. In just his first -- and much anticipated -- Major League game, Daisuke Matsuzaka lived up to his advanced billing and all the hype. If he's anywhere near as good as he was today against the Royals, the Red Sox will get a nice return on their $103 million investment.
Matsuzaka struck out 10 in seven innings, leading the Red Sox to a 4-1 victory over the Kansas City. But it wasn't just the ten K's that were impressive; Dice-K allowed just six hits. Striking more than one batter per inning, and allowing less than one hit per inning, is one hell of an introduction to the Major Leagues.
Matsuzaka threw an array of pitches, including fastballs, changeups and breaking balls that frustrated Kansas City hitters. During one stretch, Matsuzaka retired 10 batters in a row, striking out the side on just 14 pitches in the fourth. And despite the cold, blustery weather, Dice-K consistently threw in the mid-90s, reaching 95 mph on the scoreboard radar gun.
The Japanese rookie seemed unfazed by the 36-degree game-time temperature, or the 200 members of the media watching his every move. He never caved to the weather or the pressure, throwing 74 of his 108 pitches for strikes. Sure this was just the lowly Royals, but how can you not be impressed?
Jonathan Papelbon picked up right where he left off last year, striking out two of the three batters he faced for his first save. That's all the more reason for confidence and optimism.
The Red Sox got their first win after an Opening Day loss, and the "sky is falling" segment of Red Sox Nation took a collective sigh of relief and can now relax -- at least a little. There are 160 games yet to go, and if the Sox win 60 percent of them, they'll wind up with 97 victories. That would be considered a very successful year, and almost assuredly qualify them for the playoffs in October.
At this point, with a #3 pitcher who looks like he's got the stuff of a #1, that possibility is more than remote; in fact, it's quite distinct. The key is keeping everyone, or mostly everyone, healthy. That may be a lot to ask, but there's always the prospect of Roger Clemens joining the staff in the not too distant future or, barring such a dream scenario, Jon Lester being ready and available should someone fail or falter.
Assuming that Curt Schilling's rough start was just an aberration, the Sox rotation could be nasty and among the best in baseball. With a guy like Matsuzaka in the third spot of the rotation, how couldn't it be?
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Saturday, March 24, 2007
PAP'S BACK IN THE PEN
The Sox May Have Found a Closer, But They've Lost An Important Part of the Rotation
So, the Sox finally have a closer. Jonathan Papelbon will once again don a cape and then sprint out of the bullpen to save the day for the Boston Red Sox. That's the good news.
By settling the closer question, the other relievers -- Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin, Joel Piniero, Hideki Okajima and JC Romero -- will be allowed to fall into more natural set-up roles, where they've had success in the past.
Ultimately, none of the candidates auditioning for the part were well-suited for the role of closer. So the Sox turned their attention to last year's leading man.
The fact is, no one else steeped up, Timlin is injured, and the trade market is too weak or too pricey. That's what made this move a reality -- no matter what management says.
"We would be beyond foolhardy to make a decision like this based on our short-term needs," general manager Theo Epstein said during a conference call. "This decision was based on what's best for Jonathan Papelbon over the next 10 years."
Don't be surprised to see Papelbon back in the rotation long before then. He may say that closing is "what I want to do for the rest of my career." I'm not buying it. He's just being a team player who is saying all the right things. For that, he should be commended.
What of the shoulder subluxation that sidelined Papelbon for the final month of last season? Apparently it's completely healed now. Medical tests showed that the powerful righty has "one of the two or three strongest" shoulders of all the pitchers on the Sox staff. That should reassure all Red Sox fans.
But while Papelbon makes the Sox bullpen considerably stronger, his absence makes the starting rotation significantly weaker. I mean, Julian Tavarez is now the number five starter, and Tim Wakefield becomes a number four? Wakefield would be better suited as a number 5, and who has any confidence whatsoever in Julian Tavarez? Do you? Well, apparently Theo Epstein does.
"I still like our starting rotation," said general manager Theo Epstein, who gave his seal of approval to moving Tavarez to the back end. "Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield, those four components remain the same. Julian Tavarez did very well in that role late last year.
"He got on a roll, and he deserves the opportunity to start."
Well, at least someone thinks so.
"I think we have some significant depth. There's Kyle Snyder, and Jon Lester is just getting stretched out. Kason Gabbard, Devern Hansack, David Pauley."
Well, I agree with that. With the exception of Pauley, any one of them would make a better fifth starter than Tavarez, and perhaps a better fourth starter than Wakefield.
Over 10 innings this spring, Gabbard, who turns 25 next month, has a nifty 2.70 ERA. And he impressed the brass last season in his four starts. Pitching 25 2/3 innings in 2006, Gabbard gave up just 24 hits and had a 3.51 ERA. The youngster made a good case for himself and appears to be a Major League-ready pitcher.
Snyder's recent performance has increased his stock and the Sox are determined to keep him on the roster. Over 9 1/3 innings this spring, the 29-year-old Snyder has compiled a 2.88 ERA. The 6'8" righty says he's finally feeling healthy for the first time in years.
Hansack, also 29, has had an impressive spring as well, and reinforced the notion that he is ready to contribute to the big league club now.
But none of them have proven themselves to the extent of the 23-year-old lefty Jon Lester, who went 7-2 with a 4.76 in 15 starts last season.
But the Sox rotation was weak last year, and the team needed to install two new quality starters to become a World Series caliber team once again. Now they are left with just one new quality starter, Daisuke Matsuzaka. Having Papelbon, another 26-year-old, in the rotation was supposed to offset the fact that two-fifths of that staff are 40-something pitchers.
And it cannot be overlooked that Tim Wakefield has a career winning percentage of just 53%, and a career WHIP (walks plus hits per inning) of 1.34. That's the stuff of a number five pitcher.
At this point, Gabbard, Snyder or Hansack seem better suited for the five spot than Tavarez, and Wakefield assumes the four simply due to experience. But seniority alone won't cut it if the knuckle-baller struggles again this year. He was entirely outmatched last year in the two spot against other teams' second best pitcher.
Don't count on the current arrangement lasting too long. My bet is that the Tavarez experiment doesn't last, the Sox will find another closer at some point, and Papelbon will eventually become a starter, as originally intended.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
So, the Sox finally have a closer. Jonathan Papelbon will once again don a cape and then sprint out of the bullpen to save the day for the Boston Red Sox. That's the good news.
By settling the closer question, the other relievers -- Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin, Joel Piniero, Hideki Okajima and JC Romero -- will be allowed to fall into more natural set-up roles, where they've had success in the past.
Ultimately, none of the candidates auditioning for the part were well-suited for the role of closer. So the Sox turned their attention to last year's leading man.
The fact is, no one else steeped up, Timlin is injured, and the trade market is too weak or too pricey. That's what made this move a reality -- no matter what management says.
"We would be beyond foolhardy to make a decision like this based on our short-term needs," general manager Theo Epstein said during a conference call. "This decision was based on what's best for Jonathan Papelbon over the next 10 years."
Don't be surprised to see Papelbon back in the rotation long before then. He may say that closing is "what I want to do for the rest of my career." I'm not buying it. He's just being a team player who is saying all the right things. For that, he should be commended.
What of the shoulder subluxation that sidelined Papelbon for the final month of last season? Apparently it's completely healed now. Medical tests showed that the powerful righty has "one of the two or three strongest" shoulders of all the pitchers on the Sox staff. That should reassure all Red Sox fans.
But while Papelbon makes the Sox bullpen considerably stronger, his absence makes the starting rotation significantly weaker. I mean, Julian Tavarez is now the number five starter, and Tim Wakefield becomes a number four? Wakefield would be better suited as a number 5, and who has any confidence whatsoever in Julian Tavarez? Do you? Well, apparently Theo Epstein does.
"I still like our starting rotation," said general manager Theo Epstein, who gave his seal of approval to moving Tavarez to the back end. "Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield, those four components remain the same. Julian Tavarez did very well in that role late last year.
"He got on a roll, and he deserves the opportunity to start."
Well, at least someone thinks so.
"I think we have some significant depth. There's Kyle Snyder, and Jon Lester is just getting stretched out. Kason Gabbard, Devern Hansack, David Pauley."
Well, I agree with that. With the exception of Pauley, any one of them would make a better fifth starter than Tavarez, and perhaps a better fourth starter than Wakefield.
Over 10 innings this spring, Gabbard, who turns 25 next month, has a nifty 2.70 ERA. And he impressed the brass last season in his four starts. Pitching 25 2/3 innings in 2006, Gabbard gave up just 24 hits and had a 3.51 ERA. The youngster made a good case for himself and appears to be a Major League-ready pitcher.
Snyder's recent performance has increased his stock and the Sox are determined to keep him on the roster. Over 9 1/3 innings this spring, the 29-year-old Snyder has compiled a 2.88 ERA. The 6'8" righty says he's finally feeling healthy for the first time in years.
Hansack, also 29, has had an impressive spring as well, and reinforced the notion that he is ready to contribute to the big league club now.
But none of them have proven themselves to the extent of the 23-year-old lefty Jon Lester, who went 7-2 with a 4.76 in 15 starts last season.
But the Sox rotation was weak last year, and the team needed to install two new quality starters to become a World Series caliber team once again. Now they are left with just one new quality starter, Daisuke Matsuzaka. Having Papelbon, another 26-year-old, in the rotation was supposed to offset the fact that two-fifths of that staff are 40-something pitchers.
And it cannot be overlooked that Tim Wakefield has a career winning percentage of just 53%, and a career WHIP (walks plus hits per inning) of 1.34. That's the stuff of a number five pitcher.
At this point, Gabbard, Snyder or Hansack seem better suited for the five spot than Tavarez, and Wakefield assumes the four simply due to experience. But seniority alone won't cut it if the knuckle-baller struggles again this year. He was entirely outmatched last year in the two spot against other teams' second best pitcher.
Don't count on the current arrangement lasting too long. My bet is that the Tavarez experiment doesn't last, the Sox will find another closer at some point, and Papelbon will eventually become a starter, as originally intended.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
THE ROATION SITUATION
On Paper This Staff Looks Very Good. But Now They Have To Go Out And Prove It.
The overhauled Red Sox starting rotation needs to make a significant improvement over last season's staff, which went 61-56 with a 5.00 ERA, the 11th highest in the league and the team's second highest in the last 50 years The only Sox staff that was worse, though marginally so, was the 1996 staff headed by Roger Clemens, which posted a 5.01 ERA.
The pitching staff, as a whole, had had the fifth-worst team ERA in all of baseball (4.83), the sixth-worst opponent’s batting average (.278), and only six teams in the American League allowed more home runs. Injuries certainly played a part, as the Sox trotted out AA pitchers and cast-offs from other clubs in a desperate attempt to keep the ship from sinking.
While Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett each topped 200 innings last season, the only other Red Sox pitcher to log more than 100 innings was Tim Wakefield. And that led to a lot of improvising, and using a cast of not-ready-for-prime-time characters.
The Sox used 14 starting pitchers in 2006, their most in a season in 40 years, including names like Jason Johnson, Kyle Snyder, Lenny Dinardo, David Pauley, Kason Gabbard, Kevin Jarvis and Devern Hansack.
The Red Sox needed to add two solid, front-line pitchers to their rotation this year, and they may have succeeded in doing that. The additions of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jonathan Papelbon should help the club overcome the weaknesses of an aged 2006 staff. Both pitchers are younger, and hopefully healthier, than the pitchers they're replacing.
The Red Sox biggest offseason prize, Matsuzaka, will have to make numerous adjustments in the transition from Japanese baseball to the potent American League: A different strike zone. Talented batting orders that can run nine-deep. Making starts on four days rest instead of five. In short, the pressure's on.
On paper this team looks good, but they have to go out and prove it. Questions remain.
While Josh Beckett led the team with 16 wins last year, he also tied Tim Wakefield for the most losses with 11. Will Beckett develop into a frontline starter? Among the 40 qualifying pitchers for the American League ERA title, Beckett ranked 36th. Among the 83 qualifying pitchers in the majors, Beckett ranked 75th. The powerful righty has to develop more pitches in his repertoire, other than his fastball, and has to be able to change speeds and locations at will to reach his true potential in the challenging A.L.
And with two starters over the age of 40, injuries, breakdown, or inconsistency have to be expected. And the team seems to realize this.
Schilling was recently informed that the Red Sox will not offer him a contract extension in spring training.
Sox President Larry Lucchino said, "Out of respect for him, we met and discussed it, considered it, and thought at this age and stage it was probably more appropriate to make that contract decision at the end of the season."
Epstein and Co. are to be commended for showing reason and restraint in not offering a 40-year-old pitcher a $13-$14 million contract extension when the grind of another 162-game season could affect him physically. Schilling is just two years removed from a lengthy rehab following ankle surgery. Returning from the injury in 2005, the right-hander went 8-8 with a 5.69 ERA. Then last year, Schilling struggled down the stretch, finishing with a 15-7 record and 3.97 ERA.
The more sensible approach, especially with such a young staff and another 40-something pitcher in Tim Wakefield, is to wait and see how Schilling performs this season. Looking ahead, the Sox are well-positioned with the youthful bunch of Beckett, Matsuzaka, Papelbon and Jon Lester.
Last year, Lester displayed just how much upside he possesses and how bright his future could be. Though he's young and still has some rough edges, he showed why the organization was so high on him. He has the potential to be a vital part of the rotation for years to come, and he'll be a lot cheaper and offer much more flexibility than Schilling.
For his part, Schilling said he understood but was disappointed. "It is a business," he said.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
The overhauled Red Sox starting rotation needs to make a significant improvement over last season's staff, which went 61-56 with a 5.00 ERA, the 11th highest in the league and the team's second highest in the last 50 years The only Sox staff that was worse, though marginally so, was the 1996 staff headed by Roger Clemens, which posted a 5.01 ERA.
The pitching staff, as a whole, had had the fifth-worst team ERA in all of baseball (4.83), the sixth-worst opponent’s batting average (.278), and only six teams in the American League allowed more home runs. Injuries certainly played a part, as the Sox trotted out AA pitchers and cast-offs from other clubs in a desperate attempt to keep the ship from sinking.
While Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett each topped 200 innings last season, the only other Red Sox pitcher to log more than 100 innings was Tim Wakefield. And that led to a lot of improvising, and using a cast of not-ready-for-prime-time characters.
The Sox used 14 starting pitchers in 2006, their most in a season in 40 years, including names like Jason Johnson, Kyle Snyder, Lenny Dinardo, David Pauley, Kason Gabbard, Kevin Jarvis and Devern Hansack.
The Red Sox needed to add two solid, front-line pitchers to their rotation this year, and they may have succeeded in doing that. The additions of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jonathan Papelbon should help the club overcome the weaknesses of an aged 2006 staff. Both pitchers are younger, and hopefully healthier, than the pitchers they're replacing.
The Red Sox biggest offseason prize, Matsuzaka, will have to make numerous adjustments in the transition from Japanese baseball to the potent American League: A different strike zone. Talented batting orders that can run nine-deep. Making starts on four days rest instead of five. In short, the pressure's on.
On paper this team looks good, but they have to go out and prove it. Questions remain.
While Josh Beckett led the team with 16 wins last year, he also tied Tim Wakefield for the most losses with 11. Will Beckett develop into a frontline starter? Among the 40 qualifying pitchers for the American League ERA title, Beckett ranked 36th. Among the 83 qualifying pitchers in the majors, Beckett ranked 75th. The powerful righty has to develop more pitches in his repertoire, other than his fastball, and has to be able to change speeds and locations at will to reach his true potential in the challenging A.L.
And with two starters over the age of 40, injuries, breakdown, or inconsistency have to be expected. And the team seems to realize this.
Schilling was recently informed that the Red Sox will not offer him a contract extension in spring training.
Sox President Larry Lucchino said, "Out of respect for him, we met and discussed it, considered it, and thought at this age and stage it was probably more appropriate to make that contract decision at the end of the season."
Epstein and Co. are to be commended for showing reason and restraint in not offering a 40-year-old pitcher a $13-$14 million contract extension when the grind of another 162-game season could affect him physically. Schilling is just two years removed from a lengthy rehab following ankle surgery. Returning from the injury in 2005, the right-hander went 8-8 with a 5.69 ERA. Then last year, Schilling struggled down the stretch, finishing with a 15-7 record and 3.97 ERA.
The more sensible approach, especially with such a young staff and another 40-something pitcher in Tim Wakefield, is to wait and see how Schilling performs this season. Looking ahead, the Sox are well-positioned with the youthful bunch of Beckett, Matsuzaka, Papelbon and Jon Lester.
Last year, Lester displayed just how much upside he possesses and how bright his future could be. Though he's young and still has some rough edges, he showed why the organization was so high on him. He has the potential to be a vital part of the rotation for years to come, and he'll be a lot cheaper and offer much more flexibility than Schilling.
For his part, Schilling said he understood but was disappointed. "It is a business," he said.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Saturday, February 17, 2007
SHORTSIGHTED, MISGUIDED & ILL-CONCEIVED
The Proposed DirecTV Deal Will Be Bad For Fans And Bad For Baseball
This week, I wrote a letter to Commissioner Selig, as I'm sure thousands of other baseball fans already have, asking him to reconsider the proposal to move the "Extra Innings" pay-per-view package exclusively to DirecTV.
For the last five years, the "Extra Innings" package has been available on cable, DirecTV, and the Dish Network to about 75 million viewers. But if the proposed deal is approved, it will be available to just 15 million current subscribers. The reason? Well it couldn't be more clear - $700 million over seven years. Yet, such a deal would be penny wise, pound foolish.
Via the internet and sports-talk radio, baseball fans from across the nation have made their feelings clear. Unequivocally, these fans are very unhappy about this proposal. Its very suggestion has bred a tremendous amount of ill will and a very negative sentiment among the sport’s core audience, its consumers, its constituency -- the genuine, loyal fans of Major League Baseball.
For a sport awash in such an unprecedented amount of money, the proposed deal with DirecTV reeks of greed and avarice. It is a smack in the face to a significant portion of the game’s audience. It is inconsiderate, and extremely short-sighted. Baseball suffered considerably as a result of the last strike and this potential move couldn’t be worse for the sport, considering that many fans already find the experience of going to a ballgame too expensive -- which is exactly how most view player salaries.
Furthermore, many fans live out of market from their favorite teams and cannot attend games, even if they could afford to. These fans, including myself, rely on "Extra Innings," and on the option of choosing which carrier to purchase it from. The whole deal simply smacks of an anti-trust violation.
As Senator John Kerry wrote in a letter to FCC chairman Kevin Martin: "I am opposed to anything that deprives people of reasonable choices. In this day and age, consumers should have more choices -- not fewer. A Red Sox fan ought to be able to watch their team without having to witch to DirecTV."
There is nothing that MLB has done since the strike that could be more detrimental to the game, aside from the steroids issue. Fans are already turned off by the fact that the game seems to have become more about money than family entertainment, and the DirecTV deal only serves to reinforce that view.
I’ve asked the Commissioner to reconsider this proposal for the benefit of the game and its fans, and I encourage all concerned fans to contact the Commissioner’s office by phone, or better yet by mail, to express their opinions and let their voices be heard.
The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball
Allan H. (Bud) Selig, Commissioner
245 Park Avenue, 31st Floor
New York, NY 10167
Phone: (212) 931-7800
Sunday, February 11, 2007
CONSTANT CHANGE IS HERE TO STAY
Only Seven Players From the 2004 World Series Champions Remain
Last season, the Sox introduced an entirely new infield and a new center fielder. And this year, the changes keep on coming. If you'd left the country for a few years, and hadn't seen the Red Sox, you'd hardly recognize this current team.
One constancy; Jason Varitek will start at catcher for the Red Sox for the eighth straight Opening Day -- the longest streak in team history. In fact, no other catcher has even been behind the dish for seven openers, period, never mind eight consecutively.
Remarkably, Dustin Pedrioa will become Boston’s 13th different Opening Day second baseman in the last 14 years.
How many of them can you name? Give it a try before looking at this list:
2006: Mark Loretta
2005: Mark Bellhorn
2004: Mark Bellhorn
2003: Todd Walker
2002: Rey Sanchez
2001: Chris Stynes
2000: Jose Offerman
1999: Jeff Frye
1998: Donnie Sadler
1997: John Valentin
1996: Wil Cordero
1995: Luis Alicea
1994: Scott Fletcher
The Red Sox have changed quite considerably in the past couple of seasons. Some fan favorites are now gone, and few of the heroes from 2004 are returning this year.
Varitek, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are the sole returnees from the Red Sox’ Opening Day lineup in 2005. And aside from those three, only four other players still remain from the 2004 World Series Champion team; Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Mike Timlin, and Doug Mirabelli. That's just seven players on a 25-man roster. Time changes everything, but those changes came rather quickly.
For the second year in a row, the Sox will have a new shortstop (Julio Lugo) and a new second baseman (Pedroia), and for the first time since 1999 they'll have a new right fielder (JD Drew). The bullpen has been entirely overhauled -- though there is still an absence of a bona fide closer -- and two-fifths of the starting rotation will be new this year as well (Jonathan Papelbon and Daisuke Matsuzaka).
In all, the team that takes the field this April to start the 2007 season will look very different than the ones we'd become familiar with over the course of the last three seasons. With the Sox, it seems that constant change is here to stay.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Last season, the Sox introduced an entirely new infield and a new center fielder. And this year, the changes keep on coming. If you'd left the country for a few years, and hadn't seen the Red Sox, you'd hardly recognize this current team.
One constancy; Jason Varitek will start at catcher for the Red Sox for the eighth straight Opening Day -- the longest streak in team history. In fact, no other catcher has even been behind the dish for seven openers, period, never mind eight consecutively.
Remarkably, Dustin Pedrioa will become Boston’s 13th different Opening Day second baseman in the last 14 years.
How many of them can you name? Give it a try before looking at this list:
2006: Mark Loretta
2005: Mark Bellhorn
2004: Mark Bellhorn
2003: Todd Walker
2002: Rey Sanchez
2001: Chris Stynes
2000: Jose Offerman
1999: Jeff Frye
1998: Donnie Sadler
1997: John Valentin
1996: Wil Cordero
1995: Luis Alicea
1994: Scott Fletcher
The Red Sox have changed quite considerably in the past couple of seasons. Some fan favorites are now gone, and few of the heroes from 2004 are returning this year.
Varitek, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are the sole returnees from the Red Sox’ Opening Day lineup in 2005. And aside from those three, only four other players still remain from the 2004 World Series Champion team; Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Mike Timlin, and Doug Mirabelli. That's just seven players on a 25-man roster. Time changes everything, but those changes came rather quickly.
For the second year in a row, the Sox will have a new shortstop (Julio Lugo) and a new second baseman (Pedroia), and for the first time since 1999 they'll have a new right fielder (JD Drew). The bullpen has been entirely overhauled -- though there is still an absence of a bona fide closer -- and two-fifths of the starting rotation will be new this year as well (Jonathan Papelbon and Daisuke Matsuzaka).
In all, the team that takes the field this April to start the 2007 season will look very different than the ones we'd become familiar with over the course of the last three seasons. With the Sox, it seems that constant change is here to stay.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Monday, February 05, 2007
SOX & ROX COULD REKINDLE TALKS
And All Things Considered, That Could Be A Good Thing For The Red Sox.
The much ballyhooed trade proposal between the Red Sox and Rockies now appears to be off. And that's because the Red Sox were driving such a hard bargain. Just imagine, Mike Lowell, Julian Tavarez, and a b-level prospect for one of the game's best hitters -- and the Rockies would have paid up to half of Helton's salary. Oh, and they'd have to take on the recovering, and overpaid, Matt Clement too. Wow. That's the kind of deal that gets proposed by some dreamy eyed fan on a Red Sox message board, only to be savaged by other rabid fans as being ridiculous, absurd, and implausible.
Considering their offer, it's amazing the Sox didn't ask Colorado to pay all of Helton's hefty contract -- $91.1 million over the next five years. Why not go for broke? Maybe get Colorado to throw in house in the Boston area for Helton too?
The most unseemly part of the whole affair was that Lowell and Tavarez had to read their names in the paper and find out out about the potential trade the way the rest of the public did. For his part, Lowell claims to have no bitterness, saying, "I understand that this ultimately is still a business and trades and talks are part of it." Once again, Lowell proved what a classy guy he is. In fact, Lowell said he'd like to play the rest of his career in Boston. Tavarez, on the other hand attacked another phone and a Gatorade cooler. No charges have been filed and the phone and cooler are said to be recovering.
Trades like this almost never happen because they're unrealistic in the first place. And the only conceivable reason the Rockies would have even engaged in such a dialogue is if they view the 33-year-old Helton as a damaged player who is past his prime. Sure he accounts for a lot of payroll, but he's their best player (ever) and the face of the franchise. Perhaps their medical staff examined his records closely and were left with deep concerns. Was Manny Delcarmen really holding up this deal?
When healthy, Helton is a world class hitter, who in 10 big league seasons (9 full) has cranked out 1700 hits, 286 homers and 996 RBI, scored 1018 runs, and posted an amazing .333 career average, .430 OBP, and a .593 slugging percentage. If the guy stays healthy and fulfills the rest of his contract, he'll end up in Cooperstown when all is said and done.
For comparison's sake, in nine big league seasons (eight of them full) Lowell - who turns 33 later this month - has 1132 hits, 163 homers, 658 RBI, 557 runs, a career .273 average, .339 OBP and .463 slugging percentage. Aside from the fact that they're both corner infielders, there is no comparison. Helton's numbers are off the charts compared to Lowell's -- compared to most of his contemporaries.
And as for Tavarez, well phones and coolers fear him a lot more than opposing hitters do. Need I say more. The Sox would be happy to send him and his $3.1 million 2007 salary out to Colorado, or anyplace else beyond the state line.
Incredibly, some baseball officials think this deal isn't dead yet. They believe the Rockies and Red Sox could rekindle talks in spring training. And that prospect is a nightmare for opposing A.L GM's -- especially those in the East. The last thing they want to see is a more potent Sox lineup to go along with a revamped rotation. Almost everyone agrees that a healthy Todd Helton at Fenway would be explosive. And apparently he thinks so too. Helton has a full no-trade clause and is willing to waive it to come play in Boston. He wants to win now, and he knows how much better his chances would be in Boston with its vaunted lineup.
But until he goes out and proves that the downturn he's faced over the last two years was just a bump in the road, questions about his health will linger. And perhaps rightly so. Calf strains, and even intestinal ailments that cause weight and strength loss, can be overcome. But for a great hitter, a bad back is career threatening. That's a scary prospect, and a bit of a gamble. But with the Rockies picking up half the tab, and considering what the Sox would have to give up in return, it's one worth taking should the opportunity arise again.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
The much ballyhooed trade proposal between the Red Sox and Rockies now appears to be off. And that's because the Red Sox were driving such a hard bargain. Just imagine, Mike Lowell, Julian Tavarez, and a b-level prospect for one of the game's best hitters -- and the Rockies would have paid up to half of Helton's salary. Oh, and they'd have to take on the recovering, and overpaid, Matt Clement too. Wow. That's the kind of deal that gets proposed by some dreamy eyed fan on a Red Sox message board, only to be savaged by other rabid fans as being ridiculous, absurd, and implausible.
Considering their offer, it's amazing the Sox didn't ask Colorado to pay all of Helton's hefty contract -- $91.1 million over the next five years. Why not go for broke? Maybe get Colorado to throw in house in the Boston area for Helton too?
The most unseemly part of the whole affair was that Lowell and Tavarez had to read their names in the paper and find out out about the potential trade the way the rest of the public did. For his part, Lowell claims to have no bitterness, saying, "I understand that this ultimately is still a business and trades and talks are part of it." Once again, Lowell proved what a classy guy he is. In fact, Lowell said he'd like to play the rest of his career in Boston. Tavarez, on the other hand attacked another phone and a Gatorade cooler. No charges have been filed and the phone and cooler are said to be recovering.
Trades like this almost never happen because they're unrealistic in the first place. And the only conceivable reason the Rockies would have even engaged in such a dialogue is if they view the 33-year-old Helton as a damaged player who is past his prime. Sure he accounts for a lot of payroll, but he's their best player (ever) and the face of the franchise. Perhaps their medical staff examined his records closely and were left with deep concerns. Was Manny Delcarmen really holding up this deal?
When healthy, Helton is a world class hitter, who in 10 big league seasons (9 full) has cranked out 1700 hits, 286 homers and 996 RBI, scored 1018 runs, and posted an amazing .333 career average, .430 OBP, and a .593 slugging percentage. If the guy stays healthy and fulfills the rest of his contract, he'll end up in Cooperstown when all is said and done.
For comparison's sake, in nine big league seasons (eight of them full) Lowell - who turns 33 later this month - has 1132 hits, 163 homers, 658 RBI, 557 runs, a career .273 average, .339 OBP and .463 slugging percentage. Aside from the fact that they're both corner infielders, there is no comparison. Helton's numbers are off the charts compared to Lowell's -- compared to most of his contemporaries.
And as for Tavarez, well phones and coolers fear him a lot more than opposing hitters do. Need I say more. The Sox would be happy to send him and his $3.1 million 2007 salary out to Colorado, or anyplace else beyond the state line.
Incredibly, some baseball officials think this deal isn't dead yet. They believe the Rockies and Red Sox could rekindle talks in spring training. And that prospect is a nightmare for opposing A.L GM's -- especially those in the East. The last thing they want to see is a more potent Sox lineup to go along with a revamped rotation. Almost everyone agrees that a healthy Todd Helton at Fenway would be explosive. And apparently he thinks so too. Helton has a full no-trade clause and is willing to waive it to come play in Boston. He wants to win now, and he knows how much better his chances would be in Boston with its vaunted lineup.
But until he goes out and proves that the downturn he's faced over the last two years was just a bump in the road, questions about his health will linger. And perhaps rightly so. Calf strains, and even intestinal ailments that cause weight and strength loss, can be overcome. But for a great hitter, a bad back is career threatening. That's a scary prospect, and a bit of a gamble. But with the Rockies picking up half the tab, and considering what the Sox would have to give up in return, it's one worth taking should the opportunity arise again.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Sunday, January 14, 2007
REMEMBERING DEWEY
Most unjustifiably, Jim Rice was once again held out of the Hall of Fame last week. But he is not the only former Red Sox player whose talents are often overlooked.
Although Rice is certainly in the pantheon of all-time great Red Sox hitters -- along with the likes of Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Wade Boggs, and Manny Ramirez -- another Sox great is often overlooked as well.
Who had more career runs, doubles, walks, stolen bases and a higher on-base percentage for the Sox - Jim Rice or Dwight Evans?
Incredibly, the answer is Evans. The former right fielder, who played for the Sox from 1972-1990, also had just one fewer total bases than Rice, and only three fewer home runs. And he did it all with only 500 more at bats than Rice had - about one season's worth. Evans is often overlooked in the history of great Sox hitters. Now this isn't to argue that Evans is worthy of induction into Cooperstown as well, but it's simply to point out that his on field exploits seem to be forgotten, but are surely worthy of greater merit.
After a 20-year career, all but his last spent with the Red Sox, Evans left his mark with 2446 hits, 1384 RBI, 385 home runs, a .272 career average, and a .370 career OBP.
Evans was never a superstar, but he was extraordinarily valuable to the Red Sox during his long career. With a cannon-like arm that could reach home plate with pin point accuracy, and enough pop in his bat to swat at least 20 homers in 11 out 12 seasons - including nine in a row - Dwight Evans is surely an all-time Red Sox great.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Although Rice is certainly in the pantheon of all-time great Red Sox hitters -- along with the likes of Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Wade Boggs, and Manny Ramirez -- another Sox great is often overlooked as well.
Who had more career runs, doubles, walks, stolen bases and a higher on-base percentage for the Sox - Jim Rice or Dwight Evans?
Incredibly, the answer is Evans. The former right fielder, who played for the Sox from 1972-1990, also had just one fewer total bases than Rice, and only three fewer home runs. And he did it all with only 500 more at bats than Rice had - about one season's worth. Evans is often overlooked in the history of great Sox hitters. Now this isn't to argue that Evans is worthy of induction into Cooperstown as well, but it's simply to point out that his on field exploits seem to be forgotten, but are surely worthy of greater merit.
After a 20-year career, all but his last spent with the Red Sox, Evans left his mark with 2446 hits, 1384 RBI, 385 home runs, a .272 career average, and a .370 career OBP.
Evans was never a superstar, but he was extraordinarily valuable to the Red Sox during his long career. With a cannon-like arm that could reach home plate with pin point accuracy, and enough pop in his bat to swat at least 20 homers in 11 out 12 seasons - including nine in a row - Dwight Evans is surely an all-time Red Sox great.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Saturday, January 13, 2007
$1 MILLION PER WIN?
There's been plenty of discussion in the baseball world about Daisuke Matsuzaka this offseason, and whether he'll be worth the Red Sox rather considerable investment in the coming years.
Matsuzaka will cost the Red Sox a total of $103 million dollars over a period of six years -- that's $17.2 million per season. Assuming he wins an average of 17 games a year over that span, each of them will cost the Red Sox a million dollars. But both Roto Authority and Hardball Times project Matsuzaka to win just 15 games this year. Of course it's just a projection, but that's what these guys do.
Considering that there wasn't a 20-game winner in the majors last year, 17 wins might be the best the Red Sox can expect from a pitcher who's never performed in the bigs before. Though 2006 marked the first time in a non-work-stoppage season that no pitcher reached the coveted number, considering how few pitchers last a full six innings in each start these days, it may not be the last.
In today's game, teams look for pitchers who can give them 30-35 starts and at least 200 innings each season -- the kind of guys that are euphemistically referred to as "innings eaters." In the modern baseball world, durability seems to be the best a team can hope for, and it's certainly more likely than having a 20-game winner on your staff. At the least, the Sox have got to get that kind of consistency and output, in terms of starts and innings, from their Japanese import.
But Matsuzaka isn't the only pitcher who'll be earning outrageous sums for each win.
The San Francisco Giants gave Barry Zito the richest pitching deal ever, $126 million for seven years. That's $18 million per season. Or looked at another way, if Zito wins 18 games every season over the life of the deal, he'll earn $1 million for each of those victories. But even in the NL, and in a pitcher's park, that assumption could be a stretch. Over six full big league seasons, Zito has averaged just 15.83 victories a year. Let's just say the Giants have a lot of faith in Zito.
However, the Red Sox had money to spend, and their pitching had to be addressed. The bullpen is another issue entirely, but the rotation clearly needed an overhaul and the addition of Matsuzaka should help.
Last year, the Sox staff gave up a total of 825 runs - 11th in the A.L. The starters had a collective ERA of 5.00, and could only muster a rather pathetic 10 quality starts. As defined, a quality start is when a pitcher works six or more innings and allows three or fewer earned runs.
Judging by his 2006 campaign, Josh Beckett appeared overrated and may be better suited to the N.L. Though he won 16 games for the Sox last year, he also sported an unflattering 5.01 ERA, which can be partially attributed to the whopping 36 home runs he allowed. Both Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield are 40-something starters, which makes both ripe for injury. And considering their histories the past two seasons, that's not unimaginable. Jonathan Papelbon is coming off a shoulder subluxation that sidelined him for the season's final month, and he'll be facing a transition from a relief role to a starting role. There remain numerous questions to be answered and only time will tell.
Sure, Matsuzaka stands to earn $1 million per victory, but there's a good chance he'll actually win 15-20 games. The new reality in baseball is that #3 and #4 pitchers are now earning the kind of money that used to be reserved for #1 starters. As Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi put it, "Never mind trying to find a No. 1 anymore; it's hard to find a 2 or a 3 or a 4 nowadays."
My how the times have changed.
Sox Notes:
The Marlins continue to explore trades for young center fielders, and they especially like David Murphy. One scout calls him a "sleeper," and believes that he'll eventually hit for power. Murphy has been on a weight training program this offseason and has put on 10-15 pounds of muscle. His 6'4" frame now packs a solid 215 pounds, which he feels will help his power and stamina over the course of a 162-game season.
Wily Mo Pena continues to struggle in the Dominican Winter League. During the playoffs for the Aguilas Cibaenas, he's just 2-for-38 with four RBIs and one run scored in 11 games. During the regular season, Pena hit .125 (1-for-8) in two games.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Matsuzaka will cost the Red Sox a total of $103 million dollars over a period of six years -- that's $17.2 million per season. Assuming he wins an average of 17 games a year over that span, each of them will cost the Red Sox a million dollars. But both Roto Authority and Hardball Times project Matsuzaka to win just 15 games this year. Of course it's just a projection, but that's what these guys do.
Considering that there wasn't a 20-game winner in the majors last year, 17 wins might be the best the Red Sox can expect from a pitcher who's never performed in the bigs before. Though 2006 marked the first time in a non-work-stoppage season that no pitcher reached the coveted number, considering how few pitchers last a full six innings in each start these days, it may not be the last.
In today's game, teams look for pitchers who can give them 30-35 starts and at least 200 innings each season -- the kind of guys that are euphemistically referred to as "innings eaters." In the modern baseball world, durability seems to be the best a team can hope for, and it's certainly more likely than having a 20-game winner on your staff. At the least, the Sox have got to get that kind of consistency and output, in terms of starts and innings, from their Japanese import.
But Matsuzaka isn't the only pitcher who'll be earning outrageous sums for each win.
The San Francisco Giants gave Barry Zito the richest pitching deal ever, $126 million for seven years. That's $18 million per season. Or looked at another way, if Zito wins 18 games every season over the life of the deal, he'll earn $1 million for each of those victories. But even in the NL, and in a pitcher's park, that assumption could be a stretch. Over six full big league seasons, Zito has averaged just 15.83 victories a year. Let's just say the Giants have a lot of faith in Zito.
However, the Red Sox had money to spend, and their pitching had to be addressed. The bullpen is another issue entirely, but the rotation clearly needed an overhaul and the addition of Matsuzaka should help.
Last year, the Sox staff gave up a total of 825 runs - 11th in the A.L. The starters had a collective ERA of 5.00, and could only muster a rather pathetic 10 quality starts. As defined, a quality start is when a pitcher works six or more innings and allows three or fewer earned runs.
Judging by his 2006 campaign, Josh Beckett appeared overrated and may be better suited to the N.L. Though he won 16 games for the Sox last year, he also sported an unflattering 5.01 ERA, which can be partially attributed to the whopping 36 home runs he allowed. Both Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield are 40-something starters, which makes both ripe for injury. And considering their histories the past two seasons, that's not unimaginable. Jonathan Papelbon is coming off a shoulder subluxation that sidelined him for the season's final month, and he'll be facing a transition from a relief role to a starting role. There remain numerous questions to be answered and only time will tell.
Sure, Matsuzaka stands to earn $1 million per victory, but there's a good chance he'll actually win 15-20 games. The new reality in baseball is that #3 and #4 pitchers are now earning the kind of money that used to be reserved for #1 starters. As Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi put it, "Never mind trying to find a No. 1 anymore; it's hard to find a 2 or a 3 or a 4 nowadays."
My how the times have changed.
Sox Notes:
The Marlins continue to explore trades for young center fielders, and they especially like David Murphy. One scout calls him a "sleeper," and believes that he'll eventually hit for power. Murphy has been on a weight training program this offseason and has put on 10-15 pounds of muscle. His 6'4" frame now packs a solid 215 pounds, which he feels will help his power and stamina over the course of a 162-game season.
Wily Mo Pena continues to struggle in the Dominican Winter League. During the playoffs for the Aguilas Cibaenas, he's just 2-for-38 with four RBIs and one run scored in 11 games. During the regular season, Pena hit .125 (1-for-8) in two games.
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Tuesday, January 09, 2007
ANOTHER INJUSTICE FOR RICE
For the thirteenth consecutive year Jim Rice has fallen short of qualifying for the Hall of Fame. Last year Rice finished second in the voting to Bruce Sutter with 64.8 percent of the vote. This year Rice's percentage of the vote actually went down to 63.5, and he once again failed to get the requisite 75 percent the votes needed for induction.
Though Rice had eight seasons of 100-plus RBIs and hit .300 seven times, for some voters it just wasn't enough. Rice slugged 382 home runs, 2,452 hits and 1,451 RBIs to go along with a .298 average in 2,089 games. He was clearly dominant in his era, perhaps the most dominant hitter of his time, but what he lacked was longevity.
That lack of longevity didn't hurt Twins outfielder Kirby Puckett. Playing only 12 seasons, Puckett was inferior to Rice in every offensive category, except batting, and yet he still achieved the immortality that induction confers. Either Puckett's induction was a mistake, or Rice has been unfairly left out.
While it's often said that Rice played 16 season in the majors, he didn't. Rice was a September call up in 1974 and had only 67 at bats in 24 games. It wasn't enough to qualify him as a rookie, and it's not enough to be considered a season. Furthermore, Rice only played in 56 games in 1989, his final season. That year Rice had just 209 at bats. To be considered for a batting title, a player must have at least 400 at bats. In a typical season, an everyday player might see as many as 600 at bats. So the reality is that Rice played just 14 seasons, and in that time he amassed absolutely phenomenal statistics. The truth is, if Rice had just sat out those 56 games in 1989 - when his eyesight had long since failed him - he would have finished his career with a magical .300 average. I say magical because many believe that if he'd lifted his average a measly .002 points that he'd have been in years ago.
From 1975-1986 Rice averaged 29 homers, 106 RBI, 91 runs and a .303 average. During this period, Rice led all American League players in 12 different offensive categories, including home runs (350), RBI (1,276), total bases (3,670), slugging percentage (.520), runs (1,098) and hits (2,145), as well as games, at bats, extra base hits, multiple hit games, go-ahead RBI, and outfield assists.
Rice dominated his era, finishing in the top five in the MVP voting six times in an eight-year span. He won the MVP award in 1978, when he became the first American League player to collect 400 total bases since Joe Dimaggio. He led the AL in homers three times, RBI twice, total bases four times, and was an All-Star eight times. He is the only player in major league history with three consecutive seasons of 35 homers and 200 hits. He led the AL in total bases for three straight seasons, tying a record held by Ted Williams and Ty Cobb. And Rice joined Babe Ruth and Jimmy Foxx as the only players in AL history with three consecutive 39 homer, .315 average seasons. Need I say more?
Rice was often perceived as a power hitter because of those three consecutive 39 + homers seasons, and because he hit 25 or more homers seven times in a ten year span. But Rice wasn't a power hitter so much as he was a hitter, plain and simple. Between '75-'86, he collected over 200 hits four times, hit .300 or better seven times, and .290 or better nine times.
First baseman Tony Perez was considered worthy of the Hall after batting .279 with 379 home runs and 1,652 RBI over 23 seasons. He certainly had the longevity, and therefore the durability, but a lifetime .279 average can qualify one for the Hall? And Perez only averaged 16 home runs and 72 RBI per season. That is not dominant.
But Rice doesn't just outshine Hall of Famers Puckett and Perez. Some would argue that it's only fair to compare players by position. For example, second basemen generally don't hold up well against outfielders in terms of offensive production. They generally get into the Hall based on their their defensive prowess and how they compare to other second basemen offensively. But for argument's sake, I think it's fair to compare Rice to other Hall of Fame players of similar offensive stature.
Rice outperformed Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda in every offensive category; runs, hits, homers, RBI, total bases, walks, OBP, slugging, and hitting. Rice also had more homers, RBI and a higher slugging percentage than Roberto Clemente. Rice had more hits, home runs, and total bases than Joe Dimaggio. Rice had more runs, hits, homers, RBI, and total bases than Hank Greenberg. Rice crushes Ralph Kiner in runs, hits, home runs, RBI, total bases and batting. Rice had more hits, total bases and a higher average than Eddie Mathews - not to mention a nearly identical slugging percentage and RBI total. Rice had more runs, hits, total bases and a higher average than Willie McCovey. Rice bested Johnny Mize in runs, hits, total bases, home runs and RBI. Rice surpassed Enos Slaughter in runs, hits, total bases, home runs, RBI, slugging percentage and had a nearly identical average. Rice had more hits, total bases, RBI, and a higher average than Duke Snider. Rice had more runs, hits, total bases, and a higher average than Willie Stargell. And finally, Rice had more runs, hits, total bases, homers, and RBI than Hack Wilson.
Only nine players in Major League history have compiled as high a career batting average and as many homers as Rice. They are: Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Hank Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays and Stan Musial. Naturally, each of them is in the Hall.
Only 198 former major leaguers have been elected to the Hall of Fame. The numbers bear out the obvious; Jim Rice should be among them. Despite the fact that 11.5% of the voters didn't get it right, the evidence makes clear that Jim Rice is worthy and deserving of the Hall of Fame. With just two years of eligibility remaining, hopefully next year all the voters will get it right. Rice deserves better than this injustice. He earned it.
Copyright © 2007 Kennedy's Commentary. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Though Rice had eight seasons of 100-plus RBIs and hit .300 seven times, for some voters it just wasn't enough. Rice slugged 382 home runs, 2,452 hits and 1,451 RBIs to go along with a .298 average in 2,089 games. He was clearly dominant in his era, perhaps the most dominant hitter of his time, but what he lacked was longevity.
That lack of longevity didn't hurt Twins outfielder Kirby Puckett. Playing only 12 seasons, Puckett was inferior to Rice in every offensive category, except batting, and yet he still achieved the immortality that induction confers. Either Puckett's induction was a mistake, or Rice has been unfairly left out.
While it's often said that Rice played 16 season in the majors, he didn't. Rice was a September call up in 1974 and had only 67 at bats in 24 games. It wasn't enough to qualify him as a rookie, and it's not enough to be considered a season. Furthermore, Rice only played in 56 games in 1989, his final season. That year Rice had just 209 at bats. To be considered for a batting title, a player must have at least 400 at bats. In a typical season, an everyday player might see as many as 600 at bats. So the reality is that Rice played just 14 seasons, and in that time he amassed absolutely phenomenal statistics. The truth is, if Rice had just sat out those 56 games in 1989 - when his eyesight had long since failed him - he would have finished his career with a magical .300 average. I say magical because many believe that if he'd lifted his average a measly .002 points that he'd have been in years ago.
From 1975-1986 Rice averaged 29 homers, 106 RBI, 91 runs and a .303 average. During this period, Rice led all American League players in 12 different offensive categories, including home runs (350), RBI (1,276), total bases (3,670), slugging percentage (.520), runs (1,098) and hits (2,145), as well as games, at bats, extra base hits, multiple hit games, go-ahead RBI, and outfield assists.
Rice dominated his era, finishing in the top five in the MVP voting six times in an eight-year span. He won the MVP award in 1978, when he became the first American League player to collect 400 total bases since Joe Dimaggio. He led the AL in homers three times, RBI twice, total bases four times, and was an All-Star eight times. He is the only player in major league history with three consecutive seasons of 35 homers and 200 hits. He led the AL in total bases for three straight seasons, tying a record held by Ted Williams and Ty Cobb. And Rice joined Babe Ruth and Jimmy Foxx as the only players in AL history with three consecutive 39 homer, .315 average seasons. Need I say more?
Rice was often perceived as a power hitter because of those three consecutive 39 + homers seasons, and because he hit 25 or more homers seven times in a ten year span. But Rice wasn't a power hitter so much as he was a hitter, plain and simple. Between '75-'86, he collected over 200 hits four times, hit .300 or better seven times, and .290 or better nine times.
First baseman Tony Perez was considered worthy of the Hall after batting .279 with 379 home runs and 1,652 RBI over 23 seasons. He certainly had the longevity, and therefore the durability, but a lifetime .279 average can qualify one for the Hall? And Perez only averaged 16 home runs and 72 RBI per season. That is not dominant.
But Rice doesn't just outshine Hall of Famers Puckett and Perez. Some would argue that it's only fair to compare players by position. For example, second basemen generally don't hold up well against outfielders in terms of offensive production. They generally get into the Hall based on their their defensive prowess and how they compare to other second basemen offensively. But for argument's sake, I think it's fair to compare Rice to other Hall of Fame players of similar offensive stature.
Rice outperformed Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda in every offensive category; runs, hits, homers, RBI, total bases, walks, OBP, slugging, and hitting. Rice also had more homers, RBI and a higher slugging percentage than Roberto Clemente. Rice had more hits, home runs, and total bases than Joe Dimaggio. Rice had more runs, hits, homers, RBI, and total bases than Hank Greenberg. Rice crushes Ralph Kiner in runs, hits, home runs, RBI, total bases and batting. Rice had more hits, total bases and a higher average than Eddie Mathews - not to mention a nearly identical slugging percentage and RBI total. Rice had more runs, hits, total bases and a higher average than Willie McCovey. Rice bested Johnny Mize in runs, hits, total bases, home runs and RBI. Rice surpassed Enos Slaughter in runs, hits, total bases, home runs, RBI, slugging percentage and had a nearly identical average. Rice had more hits, total bases, RBI, and a higher average than Duke Snider. Rice had more runs, hits, total bases, and a higher average than Willie Stargell. And finally, Rice had more runs, hits, total bases, homers, and RBI than Hack Wilson.
Only nine players in Major League history have compiled as high a career batting average and as many homers as Rice. They are: Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Hank Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays and Stan Musial. Naturally, each of them is in the Hall.
Only 198 former major leaguers have been elected to the Hall of Fame. The numbers bear out the obvious; Jim Rice should be among them. Despite the fact that 11.5% of the voters didn't get it right, the evidence makes clear that Jim Rice is worthy and deserving of the Hall of Fame. With just two years of eligibility remaining, hopefully next year all the voters will get it right. Rice deserves better than this injustice. He earned it.
Copyright © 2007 Kennedy's Commentary. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Thursday, January 04, 2007
IS THE PEN MIGHTIER?
One of Theo Epstein's primary tasks this offseason has been rebuilding the Red Sox beleaguered bullpen, which had one lone bright spot in 2006.
Jonathan Papelbon was flat out brilliant last year. Possessing a bulldog mentality, the young righty was absolutely dominating and inspired fear in the hearts of opposing batters until going down with a shoulder displacement at the beginning of September. Papelbon was consistent for most of the season, amassing a Sox rookie record of 35 saves in 41 chances, and a paltry .92 ERA.
But for the Red Sox, the problem was getting to Papelbon. Red Sox starters were lucky to get into the sixth inning in many games, and the assortment of relievers called upon to pitch the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings were unreliable and often unprepared.
To rectify this rather significant problem, the Red Sox recently went out and got a host of middle relievers and set-up men to try to bridge the gap. In short order, the Red Sox acquired lefties Hideki Okajima and JC Romero, plus righties Brendan Donnelly, and Joel Piniero. The Sox even signed former Royals right-hander Runelvys Hernandez to a Triple-A contract. Though he'll be a non-roster player, Hernandez will be invited to Spring Training and given a chance to make the team.
But the Sox most glaring bullpen problem has yet to be addressed. Now that Papelbon will be taking a spot in the rotation, who will assume his role as the closer? The candidates will not only include the host of newcomers, but also the holdovers from last year's squad, including Mike Timlin, Julian Tavarez, Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen. But some quick addition reveals that we're talking about at least eight relievers competing for what will likely amount to just seven spots on the 25-man roster.
Let's assume the Red Sox go with the following position players:
Catchers - Jason Varitek and Doug Mirabelli
Infielders - Alex Cora, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz
Outfielders - Coco Crisp, Manny Ramirez, JD Drew, Wily Mo Pena, and Eric Hinske
That's 13 players on the 25-man roster. That leaves 12 spots open for pitchers. After last year's injury nightmare, the Sox will likely go with six starters; Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jonathan Papelbon, Tim Wakefield, and Jon Lester. And that doesn't include Matt Clement, who underwent surgery on his rotator cuff and labrum in September and could factor into the mix at some point.
Now perhaps it's too optimistic to assume that Lester will be fully recovered from his recent cancer treatment and strong enough to break camp with the Sox in April. Maybe he'll need some rehab starts in Pawtucket in order to rebuild his arm strength and regain the promising form he displayed in his 7-2 rookie campaign. After all, he'd be just an hour's drive from Fenway if another starter goes down at some point in the season, which is almost a given most years.
So that leaves just seven spots for a large roster of bullpen candidates. Here's a look at the 13 relievers most likely to garner consideration:
Holdovers:
Mike Timlin
Julian Tavarez
Manny Delcarmen
Craig Hansen
New Acquisitions:
Brendan Donnelly
Hideki Okajima
J.C. Romero
Joel Piniero
On the fence / Hopefuls:
Lenny DiNardo
Devern Hansack
Javier Lopez
Edgar Martinez
Kyle Snyder
Something's got to give because obviously not everyone can make the team. It's simply a numbers game.
Some pitchers, if due to nothing more than the size of their contracts, will surely make the cut. Timlin, Romero, Piniero, and Donnelly will all earn considerable salaries and won't get paid millions to pitch in the minors. That said, they all have big game experience as well. Donnelly has a 2.87 career ERA and has struck out an impressive 295 batters in 295 innings. Last year, Romero held left-handed batters to a .211 average and permitted just 13 of 44 inherited runners to score. And in 15 appearances as a setup man for the Mariners last year, Piniero held opponents to a .213 average. All four would appear to have a lock on a roster spot. But what about the remaining three spots?
Craig Hansen still appears green and may be sent back to Pawtucket to work on his pitch repertoire and build confidence. At this point he clearly looks to have been promoted far to fast. Though the move was out of necessity, which isn't his fault, it seems to have been very much to his detriment.
The Sox have held out hope for lefty Lenny DiNardo for a couple of years, but perhaps some of the shine has started to wear off after three seasons and a 5.53 ERA. If Okajima and/or Romero stick, DiNardo's out.
Though he was given limited opportunities to prove himself, Javier Lopez gave up just 13 hits and had 11 strike outs in 16 2/3 innings last year. He'll likely be given a chance to compete for the lefty spot out of the pen. The Sox also liked what they saw from Devern Hansack, who threw a complete-game shutout on the season's final day, though there is little else to go by since he made just two appearances, both starts. And Kyle Snyder's looping curve ball impressed management as well, but his 4-5 record and 6.56 ERA left much to be desired. The 6'8" righty had a tendency to start strong and fizzle early, so he may be ideal for middle relief work.
Edgar Martinez has to get a shot eventually, but he may be offered, along with others in this surplus bunch of middle relievers, as part of a package in a trade for a bona fide closer. That's a scenario the Sox are surely pursuing since "closer by committee" didn't work out too well last time. But such a trade may be easier said than done. So far the asking price has been quite steep.
At this point it's safe to say that the Sox bullpen will indeed be mightier than it was last year - at least in terms of middle relief. But without a surefire, dominating closer to go to in the ninth, 2007 could turn out to be just as disappointing as 2005 and 2006. Theo still has important work to do and, in the absence of this sort of closer, can only hope that someone in the current relief core steps up during Spring Training to surprise and thrill us all. After all, Jonathan Papelbon did it last year. But the question is this; can lightning strike twice and, if so, can the Sox capture it in a bottle?
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Jonathan Papelbon was flat out brilliant last year. Possessing a bulldog mentality, the young righty was absolutely dominating and inspired fear in the hearts of opposing batters until going down with a shoulder displacement at the beginning of September. Papelbon was consistent for most of the season, amassing a Sox rookie record of 35 saves in 41 chances, and a paltry .92 ERA.
But for the Red Sox, the problem was getting to Papelbon. Red Sox starters were lucky to get into the sixth inning in many games, and the assortment of relievers called upon to pitch the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings were unreliable and often unprepared.
To rectify this rather significant problem, the Red Sox recently went out and got a host of middle relievers and set-up men to try to bridge the gap. In short order, the Red Sox acquired lefties Hideki Okajima and JC Romero, plus righties Brendan Donnelly, and Joel Piniero. The Sox even signed former Royals right-hander Runelvys Hernandez to a Triple-A contract. Though he'll be a non-roster player, Hernandez will be invited to Spring Training and given a chance to make the team.
But the Sox most glaring bullpen problem has yet to be addressed. Now that Papelbon will be taking a spot in the rotation, who will assume his role as the closer? The candidates will not only include the host of newcomers, but also the holdovers from last year's squad, including Mike Timlin, Julian Tavarez, Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen. But some quick addition reveals that we're talking about at least eight relievers competing for what will likely amount to just seven spots on the 25-man roster.
Let's assume the Red Sox go with the following position players:
Catchers - Jason Varitek and Doug Mirabelli
Infielders - Alex Cora, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz
Outfielders - Coco Crisp, Manny Ramirez, JD Drew, Wily Mo Pena, and Eric Hinske
That's 13 players on the 25-man roster. That leaves 12 spots open for pitchers. After last year's injury nightmare, the Sox will likely go with six starters; Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jonathan Papelbon, Tim Wakefield, and Jon Lester. And that doesn't include Matt Clement, who underwent surgery on his rotator cuff and labrum in September and could factor into the mix at some point.
Now perhaps it's too optimistic to assume that Lester will be fully recovered from his recent cancer treatment and strong enough to break camp with the Sox in April. Maybe he'll need some rehab starts in Pawtucket in order to rebuild his arm strength and regain the promising form he displayed in his 7-2 rookie campaign. After all, he'd be just an hour's drive from Fenway if another starter goes down at some point in the season, which is almost a given most years.
So that leaves just seven spots for a large roster of bullpen candidates. Here's a look at the 13 relievers most likely to garner consideration:
Holdovers:
Mike Timlin
Julian Tavarez
Manny Delcarmen
Craig Hansen
New Acquisitions:
Brendan Donnelly
Hideki Okajima
J.C. Romero
Joel Piniero
On the fence / Hopefuls:
Lenny DiNardo
Devern Hansack
Javier Lopez
Edgar Martinez
Kyle Snyder
Something's got to give because obviously not everyone can make the team. It's simply a numbers game.
Some pitchers, if due to nothing more than the size of their contracts, will surely make the cut. Timlin, Romero, Piniero, and Donnelly will all earn considerable salaries and won't get paid millions to pitch in the minors. That said, they all have big game experience as well. Donnelly has a 2.87 career ERA and has struck out an impressive 295 batters in 295 innings. Last year, Romero held left-handed batters to a .211 average and permitted just 13 of 44 inherited runners to score. And in 15 appearances as a setup man for the Mariners last year, Piniero held opponents to a .213 average. All four would appear to have a lock on a roster spot. But what about the remaining three spots?
Craig Hansen still appears green and may be sent back to Pawtucket to work on his pitch repertoire and build confidence. At this point he clearly looks to have been promoted far to fast. Though the move was out of necessity, which isn't his fault, it seems to have been very much to his detriment.
The Sox have held out hope for lefty Lenny DiNardo for a couple of years, but perhaps some of the shine has started to wear off after three seasons and a 5.53 ERA. If Okajima and/or Romero stick, DiNardo's out.
Though he was given limited opportunities to prove himself, Javier Lopez gave up just 13 hits and had 11 strike outs in 16 2/3 innings last year. He'll likely be given a chance to compete for the lefty spot out of the pen. The Sox also liked what they saw from Devern Hansack, who threw a complete-game shutout on the season's final day, though there is little else to go by since he made just two appearances, both starts. And Kyle Snyder's looping curve ball impressed management as well, but his 4-5 record and 6.56 ERA left much to be desired. The 6'8" righty had a tendency to start strong and fizzle early, so he may be ideal for middle relief work.
Edgar Martinez has to get a shot eventually, but he may be offered, along with others in this surplus bunch of middle relievers, as part of a package in a trade for a bona fide closer. That's a scenario the Sox are surely pursuing since "closer by committee" didn't work out too well last time. But such a trade may be easier said than done. So far the asking price has been quite steep.
At this point it's safe to say that the Sox bullpen will indeed be mightier than it was last year - at least in terms of middle relief. But without a surefire, dominating closer to go to in the ninth, 2007 could turn out to be just as disappointing as 2005 and 2006. Theo still has important work to do and, in the absence of this sort of closer, can only hope that someone in the current relief core steps up during Spring Training to surprise and thrill us all. After all, Jonathan Papelbon did it last year. But the question is this; can lightning strike twice and, if so, can the Sox capture it in a bottle?
Copyright © 2007 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
J.D. DREW: A DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN
Realizing the justified concerns of many, the Red Sox have signed free agent outfielder J.D. Drew to a five-year, $70 million contract. The annual salary ($14 million) isn't the problem; the length of the contract is.
Drew has had problems with his knees, wrist, shoulder, back, ankle and quadriceps at various points in his career. The various injuries have forced him onto the disabled list seven times in the last eight years.. Since becoming an everyday player in 1999, Drew has averaged just 118 games per season. The 31-year-old is a career .286 hitter, with 162 homers and 509 RBIs, averaging 20 and 64 per year, respectively. And though he has never been an All Star, Drew will now be among the highest paid outfielders in the game.
Signing Drew for 2-3 years might be justifiable, due to his career .393 on base percentage. But a five year deal is a disaster waiting to happen. It's only a matter of time before Drew gets hurt again and disappoints the team and the fans. Then the heat will be on.
Here's a prediction; Due to injuries and an underachieving performance, the Red Sox will try to move Drew before this contract is up. But they'll have to eat some of this oversized, bloated deal because a wiser team will see him as the overpaid, damaged goods he is. And at that point, said team will have the Sox over a barrel. Just you wait and see.
Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Drew has had problems with his knees, wrist, shoulder, back, ankle and quadriceps at various points in his career. The various injuries have forced him onto the disabled list seven times in the last eight years.. Since becoming an everyday player in 1999, Drew has averaged just 118 games per season. The 31-year-old is a career .286 hitter, with 162 homers and 509 RBIs, averaging 20 and 64 per year, respectively. And though he has never been an All Star, Drew will now be among the highest paid outfielders in the game.
Signing Drew for 2-3 years might be justifiable, due to his career .393 on base percentage. But a five year deal is a disaster waiting to happen. It's only a matter of time before Drew gets hurt again and disappoints the team and the fans. Then the heat will be on.
Here's a prediction; Due to injuries and an underachieving performance, the Red Sox will try to move Drew before this contract is up. But they'll have to eat some of this oversized, bloated deal because a wiser team will see him as the overpaid, damaged goods he is. And at that point, said team will have the Sox over a barrel. Just you wait and see.
Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
Saturday, December 02, 2006
MATSUZAKA DEAL WILL BE REACHED
Daisuke Matsuzaka will become a member of the Red Sox. Don't you worry.
There is so much to gain for all parties involved in the Matsuzaka negotiations that the deal will get done, though it may go down to the December 14 deadline.
The Seibu Lions certainly have much to gain - $51.11 million to be exact - and they will do all they can to assure that an agreement is reached between agent Scott Boras and the Sox.
Initially, most executives believed that Boras would seek a short-term contract of only three or four years, allowing Matsuzaka to then file for free agency and an even more lucrative payday. But the latest reports indicate that Boras is now be seeking a six-year deal in the $12 million-a-year range. Including the $51.1 million posting fee paid for the right to negotiate with Matsuzaka, the total annual cost to the Sox would rise to more than $20 million a year, an unprecedented long-term contract for a pitcher.
But at this point, the two sides appear to be far apart in determining the Japanese hurler's value. The team is said to have made an offer of about $7 million to $8 million annually, and that could go as high as $10 million per season before the negotiations conclude.
If Matsuzaka doesn't come to terms with the Sox, the Lions must return the posting bid. Since the Lions had initially hoped for a bid in the $25-$30 million range, the Red Sox' ginormous post entirely exceeded their expectations. Considering the potential windfall, the Lions will do all they can to ensure that Matsuzaka dons a Red Sox uniform in 2007. And it's hard to imagine Matsuzaka returning to Japan rather than accepting a multi-million dollar offer from the Red Sox.
After asking the Lions to post him for the last two seasons, the heat will be on Matsuzaka to accept the Sox' offer, which could potentially triple his 2006 Lions salary of $3 million. By Japanese cultural standards, rejecting the Sox' offer and returning to Seibu would be viewed as greedy and dishonorable. Matsuzaka will not allow that to happen, and he will realize his dream of pitching in the Majors.
And if Boras hopes to represent other Japanese players in the future, this deal must get done. There are no other bidders this year. There is no one else to use as leverage. Ten percent of whatever the Sox are offering is better than nothing at all.
The Sox breathtaking posting fee was a sound move for a few reasons. 1.) It guaranteed exclusivity in the negotiations and kept all other competitors (namely the Yankees) at bay. 2.) It doesn't count toward the luxury tax since the post is exempt from such accounting. 3.) The Red Sox think it is wiser to spend $20 million a year, or more, on Matsuzaka, than to invest $15 million-plus a year in Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt, who many baseball people view as No. 2 starters, not true dominators.
Lastly, the Sox have put the pressure squarely on Matsuzaka. But that isn't enough. The Sox have to bring home the prize. They have the season's biggest fish on the line, but it only matters if they reel him in - which is why they will.
Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
There is so much to gain for all parties involved in the Matsuzaka negotiations that the deal will get done, though it may go down to the December 14 deadline.
The Seibu Lions certainly have much to gain - $51.11 million to be exact - and they will do all they can to assure that an agreement is reached between agent Scott Boras and the Sox.
Initially, most executives believed that Boras would seek a short-term contract of only three or four years, allowing Matsuzaka to then file for free agency and an even more lucrative payday. But the latest reports indicate that Boras is now be seeking a six-year deal in the $12 million-a-year range. Including the $51.1 million posting fee paid for the right to negotiate with Matsuzaka, the total annual cost to the Sox would rise to more than $20 million a year, an unprecedented long-term contract for a pitcher.
But at this point, the two sides appear to be far apart in determining the Japanese hurler's value. The team is said to have made an offer of about $7 million to $8 million annually, and that could go as high as $10 million per season before the negotiations conclude.
If Matsuzaka doesn't come to terms with the Sox, the Lions must return the posting bid. Since the Lions had initially hoped for a bid in the $25-$30 million range, the Red Sox' ginormous post entirely exceeded their expectations. Considering the potential windfall, the Lions will do all they can to ensure that Matsuzaka dons a Red Sox uniform in 2007. And it's hard to imagine Matsuzaka returning to Japan rather than accepting a multi-million dollar offer from the Red Sox.
After asking the Lions to post him for the last two seasons, the heat will be on Matsuzaka to accept the Sox' offer, which could potentially triple his 2006 Lions salary of $3 million. By Japanese cultural standards, rejecting the Sox' offer and returning to Seibu would be viewed as greedy and dishonorable. Matsuzaka will not allow that to happen, and he will realize his dream of pitching in the Majors.
And if Boras hopes to represent other Japanese players in the future, this deal must get done. There are no other bidders this year. There is no one else to use as leverage. Ten percent of whatever the Sox are offering is better than nothing at all.
The Sox breathtaking posting fee was a sound move for a few reasons. 1.) It guaranteed exclusivity in the negotiations and kept all other competitors (namely the Yankees) at bay. 2.) It doesn't count toward the luxury tax since the post is exempt from such accounting. 3.) The Red Sox think it is wiser to spend $20 million a year, or more, on Matsuzaka, than to invest $15 million-plus a year in Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt, who many baseball people view as No. 2 starters, not true dominators.
Lastly, the Sox have put the pressure squarely on Matsuzaka. But that isn't enough. The Sox have to bring home the prize. They have the season's biggest fish on the line, but it only matters if they reel him in - which is why they will.
Copyright © 2006 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.
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