Kennedy's Commentary

Red Sox Rotation Still Has Major Gaps

2012-01-26T13:32:00.000-08:00

It's late January. Pitchers and catchers report in less than a month. Yet, incredibly, the Red Sox still have just three proven starters on their big league roster; Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

The Sox have signed veterans Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva and Vicente Padilla to minor league contracts in recent weeks. The absence of a big league deal means that each of them comes with assorted questions and there is no assurance that any of them will make the team out of spring training.

Cook and Padilla are both reclamation projects returning from injures and both are hoping to get their careers back on track.

Silva, presumably the healthiest of the lot, was cut by the Cubs during spring training last year and promptly signed a minor league contract with the Yankees. However, New York quickly released Padilla in early July after just two months. The fact that he couldn't even cut it at the Triple-A level is not encouraging.

Obviously, the Sox are hoping for a better outcome this year.

Each of the three last pitched in the National League and each of them struggled there. That does not bode well in the AL East.

So, even after these signings, the Red Sox are still in need of fourth and fifth starters. Above all, they need innings eaters who will take pressure off the bullpen.

The Sox will audition both Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves for a rotation spot in spring training. However, neither of them can be reasonably expected to carry a heavy workload during the upcoming season.

Last year, Aceves threw a career-high 114 innings. Meanwhile, Bard threw just 73 innings in 2011. How can anyone realistically expect these two former relievers to toss anything close to 200 innings in 2012?

Simply put, you can't. And that could pose a big problem for the Sox' three primary starters, as well as the bullpen. A lot of responsibility will rest on their shoulders.

Beckett has thrown 200 innings in just one of the last four seasons. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, he has been afflicted with assorted injuries. Over that lengthy period, the righty has never finished better than ninth in innings pitched. He is not what you would call a workhorse or an innings eater.

Buchholz has never thrown more than 173.2 innings in his career and, after suffering a stress fracture in his back, managed just 82.2 last season. Since there is no precedent for it, Buchholz clearly cannot be counted on for 200 innings this year.

Until last season, when he threw 191.2 innings, Lester had thrown at least 200 innings for three straight years. He is the only one of the three who seems capable of enduring the rigors of a six-month season in which he will be relied on for a minimum of 30 starts.

This makes the four and five spots in the Sox rotation critical. The Red Sox require a combination of talent and depth. They need tough, durable starters who will remain healthy and give them lots of innings, taking pressure off the bullpen.

Given his back issues, Roy Oswalt is not that guy. Due to the degenerative disc problem that afflicts his spine, even a one-year deal with Oswalt would be very risky.

But this late in the offseason, the pickings are quite slim.

Perhaps the best free agent starer still available is Edwin Jackson.

On Wednesday, ESPN's Jim Bowden reported on Twitter that the Red Sox have made an offer to the 28-year-old. Jackson's agent, Scott Boras, was reportedly seeking a five-year, $75 million to $80 million contract for his client.

Perhaps the Sox can get Jackson on a one-year deal at a more reasonable price.

The reality is that Jackson is a decent pitcher. Perhaps even a good pitcher. But he is by no means a great pitcher or one worthy of a frontline starter's contract.

Case in point: Jackson has a 1.476 lifetime WHIP and 4.46 ERA. Meanwhile, Aaron Cook has a 1.468 lifetime WHIP and 4.53 ERA.

However, Cook will earn just $1.55 million if he makes the major league club out of spring training.

With that in mind, how does Boras perceive Jackson's value to be anything near $15 million to $16 million annually? It seems likely that the Sox will offer a one-year deal at about half that annual value.

The upside with Jackson is that he has logged no fewer than 199-2/3 innings in any of the past three seasons. That's just the kind of guy the Red Sox are desperate for this year. They require a back-of-the-rotation starter who will give them at least 200 innings. Jackson fits that profile. And in Boston, there would be no expectation for him to be a star or to carry the staff.

Cook, Silva and Padilla may be able to provide the Red Sox with some depth at Triple-A this season, in case of an injury to a starter, But the chances of any of them breaking the Sox rotation out of spring training appear to be slim and none.

That's why, at this point, Jackson and the Red Sox appear to be a perfect match on a one-year deal.

Red Sox May Be Forced to Spend; But on Who?

2011-12-13T19:36:00.000-08:00

Japanese sensation, Yu Darvish

It's mid-December and the Red Sox still need a right fielder, a closer and two starting pitchers. The problem is that they've already committed about $170 million in payroll for 2012.

Many Sox fans likely feel that ownership should just suck it up and spend the necessary money needed to address the rotation and bullpen. Perhaps the club can go cheap in right field with Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalsih, but they'll need to spend to acquire pitching.

However, even if the Sox decide to throw caution to the wind and eclipse the luxury tax threshold, there's still a serious problem that even bundles of money cannot address.

Hardball Talk ranked the 111 best free agents available this offseason. Here's a list of the remaining free agent pitchers (starters and relievers). As you can see, it's hardly an exciting or enticing bunch.

9. Edwin Jackson (Cardinals) 14. Ryan Madson (Phillies) 15. Hiroki Kuroda (Dodgers) 18. Roy Oswalt (Phillies) 20. Javier Vazquez (Marlins) 21. Paul Maholm (Pirates) 24. Francisco Cordero (Reds) 34. Joel Pineiro (Angels) 36. Jason Marquis (D-backs) 41. Bartolo Colon (Yankees) 52. Darren Oliver (Rangers) 57. Brad Lidge (Phillies) 65. Kerry Wood (Cubs) 66. Rich Harden (Athletics) 70. Jon Garland (Dodgers) 74. Brad Penny (Tigers) 77. Chad Qualls (Padres) 78. Jeff Francis (Royals) 85. Mike Gonzalez (Rangers) 88. Livan Hernandez (Nationals) 93. Fernando Rodney (Angels) 94. Jason Isringhausen (Mets) 97. Kevin Millwood (Rockies) 100. Ben Sheets (N/A) 04. Aaron Cook (Rockies) 106. Guillermo Mota (Giants) 108. Zach Duke (D-backs) 109. Dan Wheeler (Red Sox) 111. Chris Young (Mets)

Given the dearth of available talent, perhaps the Red Sox will instead attempt to make a trade for pitching — and they needs lots of it. More on that in a moment.

According to the Boston Herald, the Red Sox remain interested in White Sox pitchers John Danks and Gavin Floyd, as well as the Oakland A’s Gio Gonzalez and the Houston Astros’ Wandy Rodriguez. The Sox are also still interested in Athletics closer Andrew Bailey.

The question is, after trading away some of their best minor league talent to acquire Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez in recent years, what's left in the Sox farm system that other teams might covet? When it comes to top prospects, the Red Sox cupboard is largely bare.

Kevin Youkilis, who will be 33 at the start of next season, who has not played in more than 136 games in any of the last three seasons, and whose numbers have also been in steady decline? Clearly, the Red Sox would be selling very low.

According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the Rockies have expressed interest in executing a trade for Marco Scutaro. Perhaps the Sox could secure a pitcher in exchange for the veteran infielder. Though Scutaro is older and costlier, he's also tougher and better defensively than Jed Lowrie. Scutaro has a lot of heart and grit. He's given the Sox much more than anyone could have reasonably expected over the last two seasons. The Sox need more guys like him, not less.

Surely the Sox have been shopping both Lowrie and Josh Reddick. However, neither has established himself as a solid everyday major leaguer. Even in a package, the pair would have limited trade value.

Michael Bowden? Who wants him?

Felix Doubront? Don't the Red Sox already have a shortage of pitching?

Which brings us back to the other problem — aside from money.

The Red Sox typically carry 12 pitchers on their roster; five starters and seven relievers. At present, the Sox have Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, Bobby Jenks, Matt Albers, Franklin Morales and Andrew Miller on their roster. That's nine pitchers, no matter how you assign them.

The reality is that Red Sox' pitching is really thin right now. So, even if the Sox somehow have faith in all of those guys (which seems dubious), they'll still need some combination of three more starters and relievers, depending on what they do with Bard and Aceves.

At this point, how can the Sox possibly rely on the up-and-down Jenks, who just had minor back surgery yesterday in Boston?

Anyone want to roll the dice with Kyle Weiland again? No? Me neither.

How about Junichi Tazawa, a pitcher who has a 7.31 ERA in nine big league appearances over two seasons? The 25-year-old had reconstructive surgery on his pitching elbow in April, 2010 and missed the rest of the season.

After rehabbing, Tazawa returned to the minors last season and posted a 4.61 ERA in 22 games played between Salem, Portland and Pawtucket.

Tazawa may be useful to the Sox at some point next season, but not in the first few months.

Given the unpredictability of Jenks, Albers and Morales, the Sox might actually need to add five or six pitchers before spring training. That's a tall order.

Given the Red Sox apparent payroll limitations and the absence of highly coveted prospects (Jose Iglesias, anyone?), the Red Sox will face some serious challenges in filling the numerous holes in their rotation and bullpen.

Boston will take $52.70 million off the books this winter. But about $33.20 will be added back in due to player raises. That leaves approximately $20 million to use in building the roster. However, by accepting arbitration, David Ortiz will probably eat up about $14 million of that.

That's a tough position for the Sox to be in; they need multiple pitchers and the new year is right on the horizon.

Yu Darvish, anyone?

After all, it's only money.

While Red Sox Dithered, Other Clubs Improved Their Rosters

2011-12-04T14:37:00.001-08:00

Although the Red Sox managerial search could be described as thorough, deliberative and methodical, it could also be described as dithering.

It was first reported that Terry Francona would not return as the Boston manager on the night of Sept. 29. The Red Sox and Bobby Valentine reached a verbal agreement on Nov. 29. That means the Boston front office spent two months searching for a manager.

While the Red Sox were dithering with their managerial search, they weren't focused on filling out their roster. Meanwhile, other clubs were busy addressing theirs.

The Sox lost Jonathan Papelbon and now find themselves without a closer. Even if Daniel Bard is chosen for that task, the team will still need more bullpen reinforcements — including a setup man.

Heath Bell, who would have been a really nice addition to the Sox, has agreed to a three-year, $27 million deal with the Marlins.

The length of Bell's contract is one year less than the deal Papelbon got from Philly. And the annual value of Bell's pact is less than the $12 million Papelbon made last year with the Red Sox, and the $9.35 million Papelbon made in 2010.

That would have made Bell a steal for the Sox.

Bell managed a 2.36 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the past three seasons in San Diego, a span in which he also saved at least 42 games annually. Bell is the kind of reliever that would have softened the blow of losing Papelbon.

It's been reported that the Sox talked to Bell's agent before he signed with the Marlins, but weren't willing to engage in similar contract terms.

However, it's fairly easy to draw the conclusion that the Sox missed the boat on this one and were caught unprepared because they were preoccupied with a managerial search that should have been completed a couple of weeks ago.

Valentine was the right guy all along. So, it's reasonable to ask, what took so long?

While the Marlins, White Sox, Cardinals and Cubs all acted quickly and decisively, the Red Sox vacillated.

The Boston front office wasted valuable time and now needs to turn its attention to the starting rotation and the bullpen — not to mention right field.

At this point, the Sox have just three starters; Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

Beckett has thrown 200 innings in just one of the last four seasons. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, Beckett has been beset with assorted injuries. Consequently, he has never finished better than ninth in innings pitched. Beckett is not what you would call a workhorse or an innings eater.

Buchholz has never thrown more than 173.2 innings in his career, and after suffering a stress fracture in his back, managed just 82.2 last season. Since there is no precedent for it, Buchholz clearly cannot be counted on for 200 innings next year.

Until last season, when he threw 191.2 innings, Lester had thrown at least 200 innings for three straight years. He is the only one of the three that appears to be built to last.

That makes the four and five spots in the Sox rotation very important. The Red Sox require both talent and depth. They need tough, durable starters who will stay healthy and give them lots of innings, taking pressure off the bullpen.

Given his back issues, Roy Oswalt is not that guy. Red Sox officials are expected to meet with Bob Garber, the agent for Oswalt and CJ Wilson, this week.

Reportedly, the Red Sox have also expressed interest in free agent Mark Buehrle (who has already thrown nearly 2,500 innings in his career), Japanese star Yu Darvish, Astros' starter Wandy Rodriguez, A's hurler Gio Gonzalez and White Sox starters John Danks and Gavin Floyd, among others.

Yet, Boston has other pitching needs to address, above and beyond their need for two starters.

The Red Sox bullpen had just three consistent, reliable components last season; Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves. Having opted to sign with the Phillies, Papelbon will not return to the Sox pen in 2012. That's left a big hole which must now be filled.

There has been much talk about moving either Bard or Aceves to the rotation in 2012.

However, last season, Aceves threw a career high 114 innings. How can anyone reasonably expect him to toss anything close to 200 innings in 2012? And taking either Bard or Aceves from the bullpen would create even bigger holes in a relief corps that already has lost Papelbon, creating as much doubt about the pen as the rotation.

Who's counting on Bobby Jenks at this point?

The Red Sox could pursue Oakland closer Andrew Bailey, Colorado closer Houston Street or Kansas City closer Joakim Soria via trade.

However, dealing for Adrian Gonzalez and Victor Martinez in recent years has left the upper ranks of the Sox farm system depleted of the kind of talent that other GMs covet.

Signing a free agent requires only dollars. However, trading for an impact player often requires the kind of prospects the Red Sox just don't have at this point. Players such as Jed Lowrie and Josh Reddick will generate limited interest and little return.

The Sox could also try to deal the versatile Kevin Youkilis for a pitcher. But, due to injuries, Youkilis — who will be 33 at the start of next season — has averaged just 111 games over the last two seasons and hasn't played in more than 136 games in the past three. That will affect his trade value.

The Red Sox could make a low dollar, one-year offer to Erik Bedard. But he has a long injury history and cannot be relied on. In seven seasons, Bedard has yet to throw 200 innings.

However, when healthy, Bedard is very effective, as his 3.70 career ERA and .97 strikeouts per inning will attest.

The Sox could also make a similar offer to Andrew Miller, who holds a 5.79 ERA over six seasons. But, at this point, the jury is in; Miller just isn't a very good Major League pitcher.

The Sox could also go the inexpensive, in-house route with Junichi Tazawa or Felix Doubront. But both pitchers are unproven at the Major League level and would amount to nothing more than a risky experiment.

However the Red Sox choose — or are forced — to address their pitching needs, there is plenty of work to do this offseason. And some of that work will begin this week at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. At the very least, the groundwork for free agent signings and/or trades should be laid there.

The Yankees got lucky with low risk contracts for Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia last offseason. Maybe the Red Sox could be similarly lucky this winter.

However, the Red Sox have tried that route many times — to no avail — in recent years, with Wade Miller, Joel Piniero, Brad Penny and John Smoltz, to name a few.

It's one thing to take a flier on a fifth starer. It's entirely another to do so with two-fifths of your starting rotation.

The Red Sox have many needs this offseason. But given the amount of time squandered searching for their manager — who was underneath their noses all along — they now have a lot less time to address all those needs.

This week's meetings in Dallas will be both revealing and important. In large part, the Red Sox are built to win now and need a few critical pieces.

That makes this offseason — and this week in particular — critical to the organization's goals, and the fan's expectations, for the 2012 season.

In Rebuilding Red Sox Rotation, Ben Cherington Faces Daunting Task

2011-11-13T17:05:00.000-08:00

As new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington evaluates the available pool of free agent starters, he must be both underwhelmed and concerned. It will take significant dollars to sign the likes of CJ Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, or Edwin Jackson, the top free agent starters on the market this winter.

The Red Sox enter the offseason with just three proven starters: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Consequently, Cherington is tasked with finding two additional starters, plus one or two reserves for the inevitable injuries that will occur over the long haul of a 162-game season.

Given how the Red Sox have fared in recent forays into the free agent pitching market with Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lackey (both of whom have undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss most, or all, of the 2012 season), it is doubtful the Sox will be big spenders in the free agent pitching market this winter.

The talent pool just isn't particularly deep, or talented.

Adding CJ Wilson would represent a continuation of the high-priced free agent strategy that hasn't worked for the Red Sox to this point. Moreover, Wilson, who turns 31 this week, has been a starter for only two years.

The upside is that Wilson has thrown just 708 Major League innings through age 30. As a starter, the lefty has exceeded 200 innings in each of the last two seasons, while posting a 3.15 ERA in that span.

The downside is that this represents a very small sample size, and Wilson is going to command a huge salary based on this rather slim resume. Furthermore, scouts worry that Wilson's mechanics will lead to arm issues in the future.

Mark Buehrle is 32, has 12 seasons under his belt, and has already thrown an eye-popping 2,476 innings in his career. The lefty is undoubtedly an innings-eater, having exceeded 200 innings in each of the last 11 seasons.

But he is now past his prime and investing in a pitcher at that age, with that many innings, is an obvious risk.

Buehrle also pitches to contact and relies on an excellent defense behind him as a result.

Roy Oswalt is 34 and has two degenerative disks in his lower back. Red Flag.

For whatever reason, Edwin Jackson cannot stick with one club, having pitched for six teams since 2005.

No matter; the combination of Matsuzaka and Lackey has the Red Sox on the hook for nearly $27 million in salary next season, making it unlikely they will invest heavily for a fourth or fifth starter.

When you look at the available fourth and fifth-starter types out there — such as Chris Capuano, Bruce Chen, Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Aaron Harang, Rich Harden, Paul Maholm, Jason Marquis and former Red Sox Bartolo Colon, Brad Penny and Joel Piniero — it’s tough to get excited.

This is the reality that Cherington is faced with as he attempts to rebuild the rotation this winter. It is truly a daunting task.

As much as most Red Sox fans may not like it, it's fairly certain that Tim Wakefield (and his 5.23 ERA the last two seasons) will return in a limited role as an inexpensive insurance policy.

The Sox may also be forced to bring back Andrew Miller (5.79 ERA over six seasons) and the often-injured Erik Bedard as well.

Minor leaguers Junichi Tazawa and Felix Doubront could each be given the opportunity to start. However, Doubront is so undisciplined that he showed up out of shape at spring training this year and was soon injured, subsequently missing most of the season.

Unfortunately, as far as starting pitching is concerned, the pickings look slim right now.

There are differing reports on whether the Sox will get involved in the bidding for Yu Darvish, the latest Japanese pitching sensation. But we know how the last one worked out.

The Sox could always turn to a trade. The organization would gladly offer up any combination of Jed Lowrie, Josh Reddick and Lars Anderson for a starting pitcher. However, none of them has ever been an everyday player at the Major League level, meaning that they have limited trade value.

There has been much discussion about the possibility of trading Kevin Youkilis. However, his value is not high at the moment.

Youkilis will be 33 in March and batted just .258 this year. He has averaged 111 games played over the past two seasons. In fact, due to injuries, Youkilis, hasn’t played over 136 games in the last three seasons.

The third baseman also had just 111 hits each of the last two years. The troubling part is that Youkilis had 82 more at-bats in 2011 than in 2010. In addition, his homer totals over the last four seasons have spiraled downward: 29, 27, 19, 17.

The departure of Jonathan Papelbon virtually assures that Daniel Bard will remain in the bullpen. Perhaps that is best. Bard has never started in the majors, and the last time he did start was while playing Class-A ball in 2007. That season he posted a 7.08 ERA over 22 starts.

However, the Red Sox have told Alfredo Aceves to report to spring training prepared to be a starter, which is his preference. The club already controls him and he is a cheap alternative.

Such a move will necessitate yet another addition to the bullpen. Yet, as unreliable as bullpen pitchers may be, there are a lot more of them out there than useful starting pitchers.

While many people support the notion of making Aceves a starter, it should be noted that he posted a 2.03 ERA in 51 relief appearances and a 5.14 ERA in four starts.

Even if the Red Sox count on successfully converting Aceves, they will still need another starter to round out the rotation and two more for adequate depth.

That's a tall order. The Red Sox are not the only team looking for starting pitching and reserve depth this offseason.

Good luck, Ben Cherington. You've certainly got your work cut out for you.

Thanks, And So Long, Theo. The Red Sox Will Be Fine Without You

2011-10-30T13:15:00.000-07:00

From the very beginning, his exit was merely an eventuality. Theo Epstein would one day no longer be the Red Sox General Manager.

When he was first selected by the Red Sox ownership group in 2002, Epstein became the youngest GM in Major League history. With the success that soon followed, he was widely viewed as a baseball wunderkind.

When your team plays in two consecutive League Championship Series and wins a World Series during your first three years on the job, that happens.

Additionally, when you win two World Series in a four-year span, and appear in four League Championships Series in a six-year span, people tend to see you as a baseball savant.

However, the reality is that Epstein inherited a 93-win Red Sox team from former GM Dan Duquette. The roster Epstein inherited had a host a talent, including Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Pedro Martinez, Tim Wakefield, Jason Varitek, and Derek Lowe.

Duquette had drafted Garciaparra, Kevin Youkilis, David Eckstein, Adam Everett, Hanley Ramirez, and Freddy Sanchez, leaving the Red Sox farm system well-stocked.

That enabled the Sox to make a major deal with the Marlins in 2005, swapping Hanley Ramirez for pitcher Josh Beckett and third baseman Mike Lowell. That deal essentially won the Sox the 2007 World Series championship.

Duquette’s performance as GM was solid. His big-ticket acquisitions - Martinez and Ramirez - worked out well.

The same cannot be said of Epstein.

While Epstein struck pay dirt with low cost, under-the-radar free agent acquisitions like Bill Meuller, Kevin Millar and David Ortiz, his tenure with the Sox was also marred by a series of high-priced busts.

John Lackey, Bobby Jenks, Mike Cameron, JD Drew, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Julio Lugo, Matt Clement and Edgar Renteria were all disappointments or outright busts.

And while the Carl Crawford experiment is still incomplete, it's clear that his previous accomplishments with the Rays never warranted such a massive long term deal in the first place.

During his years as the Red Sox GM, Epstein also made an assortment of trades, with mixed success.

Without question, the highlight was the acquisition of Curt Schilling for Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon and two minor league pitchers. Obviously, that proved to be a shrewd move and it benefitted the Red Sox immensely.

But many trades orchestrated by Epstein proved regrettable.

In 2003, Epstein traded away Freddy Sanchez — an eventual batting champion and All-Star — for righthander Jeff Suppan.

Suppan, a journeyman who had come up with the Red Sox in 1995, had a career ERA of 5.51 when Epstein acquired him. True to form, Suppan posted a 3-4 record and a 5.57 ERA upon his return. His performance was so miserable that the Red Sox gladly let the free agent walk away that offseason.

Trading for Coco Crisp never worked out as projected either, especially since Crisp was chosen over Johnny Damon.

Epstein reportedly offered Damon a four-year contract valued at $40 million and refused to match the Yankees four-year, $52 million offer. That was clearly a regrettable decision. Damon had four very productive seasons with the Yankees and won a World Series title with New York.

Epstein has long admitted that trading Bronson Arroyo for Willy Mo Pena was a big mistake. Pena has bounced back and forth between the minors and majors, and from organization to organization, ever since. However, no other GM seemed nearly as enchanted by Pena's power potential as Epstein was.

Meanwhile, all Arroyo has done is win 79 games over six seasons with the Reds, throwing a minimum of 199 innings in each of them.

One of Epstein's best decisions as GM was the trade of Garciaparra, who had become a malcontent in Boston. In exchange, the Red Sox received Doug Mientkiewicz and Orlando Cabrera, the later of whom proved to be a real spark for the Sox down the stretch and in the playoffs.

However, despite Cabrera's boundless energy, enthusiasm and popularity with teammates and fans alike, Epstein chose not to offer him a free agent contract after the 2004 season, opting for Renteria instead. That move proved to be a double-whammy for the Sox, in which they lost twice with just one bad decision by their GM.

Epstein also struck out with his lamentable decision to trade for closer Eric Gagné at the deadline in 2007. As a result of the Mitchell Report, it is now known that Epstein had been coveting Gagné since the previous offseason.

In a November 2006 email exchange, Epstein questioned Red Sox scout Marc Del Piano about the possible acquisition of the then free agent closer. In the email, Epstein asked DelPiano, "Have you done any digging on Gagne? I know the Dodgers think he was a steroid guy. Maybe so. What do you hear on his medical?"

DelPiano replied that "steroids IS the issue" with Gagné, questioned his "poise and commitment" and expressed questions about his durability "without steroid help."

Despite the reservations expressed by Delpiano, Epstein still traded Kason Gabbard and minor league outfielders David Murphy and Engel Beltré to the Texas Rangers for Gagné on July 31, 2007.

Gagné was an unmitigated disaster in Boston, posting a 6.75 ERA over 20 games, which led to him being kept off the post-season roster.

Murphy, meanwhile, has been a starting outfielder for Texas ever since and has now represented the Rangers in two consecutive World Series.

Lastly, Epstein also traded Justin Masterson (plus minor league pitchers Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price) to the Indians for Victor Martinez. However, Martinez played with the Red Sox for just eight months before leaving via free agency.

Now that Martinez is gone, the Red Sox have nothing to show for the loss of Masterson, who has emerged as one of the better young starters in the AL. The big righty posted a 3.21 ERA in 2011, while tossing 216 innings for Cleveland.

Meanwhile, the Indians have Masterson, who is only arbitration eligible, under their control for the next two seasons at a low cost.

It must also be noted that part of Epstein's legacy is assembling a clubhouse full of coddled, overindulged millionaires.

Terry Francona was known as a player's manager. However, it now seems that such a disposition will no longer work in the entitled environment of the Red Sox clubhouse. That said, Francona was not the problem; he was merely a symptom.

This is Theo's team; it was his creation. He built this squad of rich, spoiled, prima donnas.

But it seems that Francona did indeed lose his clubhouse, and he knew it.

Jim Rice said the Red Sox clubhouse was a "spa." On their off-days, pitchers were said to be drinking beer there during games, instead of rooting on their teammates from the dugout.

There were reports of cliques among the pitchers, of resentment among teammates, of a culture of entitlement, of complacency. Apparently the pitchers, particularly the starters, rarely spoke to position players and that created a gulf in the clubhouse.

Remember the old "25 cabs for 25 players" Red Sox? Well, they're back.

Players were out of shape and lacked conditioning; that's just unprofessional. The only regular players who routinely showed up for optional batting practice were Dustin Pedroia and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

The Red Sox were a team divided.

Yet, many are sorry to see Francona go. That's understandable since he was such a likable man. In many ways, Francona seems like the fall guy for Epstein's mistakes. But the Sox now need a true General to get the players in line, and they need to lose a few players too — starting with John Lackey.

However, almost as quickly as this season was over, Lackey has already been lost — but perhaps not for good. Sitting out the 2012 season due to Tommy John surgery will essentially make lackey untradable. And he'll have to prove himself in 2013 before any team might even consider taking on that risk.

Epstein knew about existing issues with Lackey's elbow, yet still handed him a massive, five-year, $82.5 million contract anyway. It was for this reason that the Red Sox had language inserted in the pact assuring that if Lackey lost significant time due to this pre-existing elbow issue, the Red Sox could have him for the league minimum in a sixth year.

How's that sound, Red Sox fans? Looking forward to John Lackey, year-six, yet?

As Red Sox GM, Epstein was the beneficiary of the second or third highest payroll in baseball virtually every year he was at the helm. That money was not always well-spent.

While Red Sox ownership can be rightfully criticized for being distracted by its ventures into Roush Racing and Liverpool soccer, it must also be credited for providing the financial resources to field a very competitive team each and every year. And it is not a meddling ownership; it has let its baseball operations people do their jobs without interference.

For better or worse, Epstein's organizational philosophy will remain largely intact with the passing of the torch to his minion, Ben Cherington. Over the past decade, the Red Sox have done a laudable job a drafting and player development.

The one hiccup was the lack of a big league-ready starter when one was suddenly needed this season. The hole in the pitching-development chain suddenly appeared gaping. Naturally, this hole will close with time.

Yet, it doesn't appear that the Sox have a single minor league pitcher currently ready to step in and make a meaningful contribution in 2012 — at least not out of the gate. However, that may change in a year, or so.

Sadly, one thing that didn't change on Eptein's watch was the Red Sox' long, sorry history of players leaving the team on bad terms: Nomar, Pedro, Damon, Manny, Jason Bay; who knows who will be next? That's a shame. However, Damon aside, management has mostly made good calls in letting its free agents walk.

The bottom line is that Theo didn't build the 2004 team as much as he inherited it. Even the acquisitions of Beckett and Lowell, so instrumental to the 2007 Championship, were not Epstein's doing. In fact, he was said to be so in love with Hanley Ramirez that many believe he wouldn't have consummated that trade.

The Red Sox reign is not over. Epstein's reign is over, as is Francona's. The organization is bigger than any GM or any manager. Every tenure must eventually end. The fact that Epstein lasted nine years and Francona eight is remarkable in modern pro sports.

They endured because the team was mostly enjoying success over that span.

However, Francona lost control of the team and Epstein made some very poor free agent / trade decisions that the club is still living with and paying for.

Too many Red Sox players are spoiled, lazy and entitled. New leadership is needed.

It's difficult to tell how different Cherington will be; after all he was groomed by Epstein and served as his right hand man for so many years. The drafting and development philosophies will likely remain the same, but free agent evaluation needs to improve markedly.

Cherington inherits a team that now has a recent history of winning and is no longer burdened by 1918. The Sox are a historic franchise and a marquee team. The new management team will have an enormous payroll at their disposal and top-notch scouting and development resources.

The Red Sox are also a team with a record sellout streak still intact and huge TV revenues. This is a prime opportunity for any management team.

While the Sox recent successes led to the pressure of great expectations, the team Epstein inherited faced even bigger expectations; they hadn't won it all in 84 years.

And let's face it; every team faces pressure and expectations. Defeat quickly gets old for everyone. If you continually lose (like the Pirates), you also lose your fan base and your revenues, meaning you can't recruit top free agents.

In Boston, there is certainly the pressure of fielding a competitive team, a winning team. But could there possibly be any more pressure now than in the decades leading up to 2004?

This team needs the new leadership it is getting. They will be fine.

However, the Red Sox do face lots of moving parts this offseason; David Ortiz, Jonathan Papelbon, Jason Varitek, Tim Wakefield, etc.

Kevin Youkilis has one year left on his deal. How does he factor into whether or not the Sox re-sign Ortiz? What trade value does Youk have after breaking down in consecutive seasons?

Who is the right fielder? Who are the fourth and fifth starters?

There are lots and lots of questions.

Most immediately, the Red Sox need a skipper who will act like a General and restore order from chaos. And that General will need a pitching coach to be his Colonel. Some asses need to be kicked, and perhaps some players need to be kicked out.

The Red Sox players have lost sight of how good they have it compared to the rest of society. They've forgotten how everyone else lives. They travel first class. They stay at first class hotels. They are paid in the millions annually — even the tens of millions. They get a per diem on the road and have huge spreads in the clubhouse every day. They get adulation and adoration.

And they feel entitled to all of it. That has to change.

More than anyone else, Theo Epstein is responsible for this culture. He assembled this team, not Terry Francona. And for that, Epstein must take the blame.

This is the immediate legacy he has now passed on to Ben Cherington.

Red Sox Epic Collapse Must Have Consequences

2011-09-29T15:31:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox gave Adrian Gonzalez 154 million reasons to smile this year.

Yes, the Red Sox had well-documented pitching problems this season.

Going into the season's final game in Baltimore, the Boston rotation had a September ERA of 7.26 — the highest starter's ERA in any month in the HISTORY of the Boston Red Sox.

Jon Lester's quality start in game 162 was a genuine rarity in this lamentable month. Red Sox starters made only five quality starts in 27 games in September.

Even the usually reliable set-up man Daniel Bard had a 10.64 ERA in September, exemplifying this team's collapse.

The poor performances and outright failures all culminated in a September winning percentage of .259, the worst for any Red Sox team since August of 1964.

The Red Sox clubs of the 1960s were largely awful, providing some perspective on just how historically dreadful this particular team was in September.

The Red Sox went 7-20 during the month, their most September losses since the 1952 club also dropped 20 games. This year's team lost 16 of their final 21 games. It was disgusting to watch.

The Red Sox ineptitude was historic by any measure.

They had a nine-game wild card lead on September 3, before their unravelling and epic collapse. No baseball team in history has ever blown a bigger lead in the final month of the season.

This Red Sox team became historic for all the wrong reasons.

Their despicable play wasn't an anomaly. Remember, this is the same team that started the season 0-6 and 2-10. They showed their true colors way back in April.

From the beginning, this was a team with no heart.

After sweeping a doubleheader from the Athletics on August 27, the Red Sox went more than a month without winning a game on consecutive days. That's just pathetic.

When the Sox were winning, from May through August, they did so by out-slugging their opponents. But the Sox had just two wins in September in which they didn't score eight or more runs.

This was a feast or famine ball club.

The Sox were 76-1 when leading after eight innings this year. The one loss was not only the last of the season, but the worst of the season.

However, the Sox rallied for victory just two times when trailing after the seventh inning. That's a sign of a team with no character.

Underneath all the star power — all the fire power — this team was weak. It was gutless. It had no heart.

The $160 million Red Sox finished in third place for the second straight season. This was a club marked by hubris, arrogance and complacency.

A serious lack of leadership ultimately led to the Red Sox' demise. They were a team that made things look easy for most of the season and — the first two weeks of April aside — never faced any adversity until September.

When the going got tough, the Sox never got it going. And even then, the only real enemy was themselves.

Outside of Dustin Pedroia, there was no sign of passion, no drive, no desire, no fire and no ferocity on this club. It was a team without a pulse.

The Red Sox' two biggest offseason acquisitions, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, displayed the same countenance whether they were hitting a two-run homer or into an inning-ending double play.

Jason Varitek was still the team's captain in 2011. But, at 39-years of age, Varitek was reduced to the role of part-time player, appearing in just 68 games this season.

Factor in that Varitek batted just .221/.300/.423, with 11 homers and 36 RBI this year, and you can see that the captain no longer leads by example.

No one ever questioned Varitek's heart, desire, or preparation. And even now, only a fool would. But it's clear that Varitek's playing days are over and that he is no longer a suitable captain for this team. It's time to pass the torch.

For all of his strengths, Kevin Youkilis is not a leader. Yes, Youk displays passion, but it's usually when arguing with an umpire after a strike out.

That aside, Youkilis has broken down in consecutive seasons and did not play down the stretch in either year.

Once you get past that group of everyday players in the lineup, you're left with a leadership vacuum.

Whether he will ever become one or not, Jacoby Ellsbury is not presently a leader. He is as laid back as they come.

Ellsbury gives the media the most trite, canned answers, as if he studied them in an old baseball quote book. He doesn't speak from the heart and doesn't seem to be a guy who can light a fire under his teammates.

His incredible season notwithstanding, Ellsbury does not appear to have the stuff of a leader.

Carl Crawford was an outright bust this year. There was not one facet of his game that can give this team or its fans even a glimmer of hope that he will eventually live up to his massive $142 million contract.

Even Crawford's speed was neutralized this season; he stole just 18 bases while playing in 130 games. This is a guy who swiped at least 40 bases in seven seasons, and at least 50 in five of them. Perhaps it was a consequence of his horrendous .289 OBP, which ranked 137th out of 145 qualifiers in the majors.

Crawford, a Gold Glove winner in 2010, looked barely competent in the outfield at times this season. That was best symbolized when he missed two sliding catch attempts in the season's waning days, the last of which being the final play of the Red Sox' season.

What's perhaps most concerning about Crawford is that he is so stunningly passive. Like JD Drew before him, nothing seems to faze Crawford. Such apparent indifference does not go over well in Boston — especially not from $142 million players.

Crawford epitomizes the organization's regrettable penchant for handing out huge free agent contracts that don't pay off.

The Red Sox have spent about $340 million on payroll over the past two seasons, and they don't even have a playoff appearance to show for it, much less a win.

Even Adrian Gonzalez, who led the team with 213 hits, a .338 average and 117 RBI, faded down the stretch.

Gonzalez's average, OBP and slugging all declined after the All Star break, and September was one of his weakest months in nearly every statistical category this season.

Gonzalez already had a troubling history of playing on a team that faded down the stretch, en route to an epic choke.

Last year, his Padres were 76-49 on August 26 — the best record in the NL. With 37 games to go, they were 6 1/2 games ahead of the Giants. Yet, San Diego ultimately lost the division lead and watched their playoff hopes go up in smoke.

Sound familiar?

Down the stretch, the Padres succumbed to a 10-game losing streak that was the club's worst since 1994.

So, the Red Sox collapse this season was nothing new to Gonzalez. Despite these consecutive failings, the star player took no responsibility for any of it. Instead, Gonzalez blamed the 'big man in the sky'.

When asked to describe the Red Sox epic choke, Gonzalez responded this way:

"I'm a firm believer that God has a plan and it wasn't his plan for us to move forward."

So now you know; God is not a Red Sox fan. But he is, however, a Yankees fan, a Rays fan and even an Orioles fan.

When a reporter asked, "Is there anything that you can put your finger on that didn't work out at all?", Gonzalez nonchalantly replied, "God didn't have it in the cards for us."

It was a pathetic response. Gonzalez looked and sounded completely unfazed about his team's stunning loss and the horrible end to their season. Gonzalez took zero responsibility as he dispassionately chatted with the assembled media in the locker room after the game.

"It didn't happen," said Gonzalez, cooly. "You know, next year we'll come out and do a better job — you know — when we have that lead."

Ho hum. No worries.

Gonzalez is gutless. He has no heart. He is apathetic. He exemplifies everything that is wrong with the Red Sox; a lack of passion, fire and accountability.

There will be consequences. There must be consequences. This epic collapse cannot be viewed as anything less than completely unacceptable.

Theo Epstein should be front and center in the blame game. He gave Terry Francona this team of softies — this roster of underachieving millionaires. Most of them displayed disinterest and apathy. They had no spirit.

The Red Sox players are all too comfortable with their seven, eight and nine-figure contracts, their bling and their fancy cars. They believe their own hype. They love the cameras, the microphones, the endorsements, the attention and the adulation.

However, they've forgotten that they're supposed to work for all of it. They're supposed to earn it.

That needs to be changed. Soft players need to be jettisoned. In their place, the Red Sox need some players with heart, guts and determination. In short, they need more guys like Dustin Pedroia.

The Sox need to feel the hunger again. Winning, and the big contracts that came with it, has made them soft.

Big changes are in order, which is just what this team needs. However, the Red Sox are stuck with the rather bloated contracts of some major under-achievers.

Three years remain on John Lackey's deal and six more on Crawford's. Both players' problems, and their salaries, are not secrets. It will be very hard to move either player.

Lackey's 6.41 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .308 opponents' batting average were last among pitchers with at least 160 innings.

Lackey is a cancer. He personifies this team's lack of accountability and responsibility. The thought of him returning next year is an awful one.

If you're looking for good news, or a glimmer of hope, JD Drew's contract has officially expired.

Who will replace him? At this point, it's pretty clear that it won't be Josh Reddick. That's one safe bet as this offseason begins.

No matter who it is, throwing money at their problems has not led to success in the Theo Epstein era. The Red Sox have not been able to buy themselves a Word Series Championship.

John Henry's money has not been well spent.

He cannot be happy about that.

No one's job should be safe.

Success Has Led to Complacency in Red Sox

2011-09-25T14:16:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox started and ended the 2011 season very disappointingly.

The 2010 Red Sox won 89 games, marking the first time in four years that the team failed to win at least 95 games.

The organization has set a goal of 95 wins each season in order to be playoff contenders in the highly competitive AL East.

Bear in mind, even with that goal, the Red Sox have won just one AL East title in 16 years.

This year's Red Sox club has just 88 wins, with five games yet to be played. Even if the Sox were to run the table, they would once again fail to win 95 games this season.

Only twice in the previous eight years have the Sox failed to win at least 95 games.

Much more was expected. After all, this is a club with the highest payroll in team history.

The highly disappointing 2011 season only leads to genuine questions about this team's heart, its desire and its hunger.

The Red Sox seemed to think that a 100-win season and a World Series Championship were their destiny. Perhaps they thought they deserved those things, and that they'd win simply by showing up and taking the field.

This year, the Red Sox often made winning look easy. Until their September swoon, the only adversity the Sox had faced was the April stretch in which they went 0-6 and 2-10 to start the season.

But this month, when the going got tough, the Sox just collapsed. Instead of fighting, they ran away and went into hiding.

You could call it apathy. But I say it's even worse.

This is a weak team with no character and no heart. There are some players on this squad who seem more concerned with their own stats and their next contracts than with winning ball games.

If the Red Sox continue this epic unravelling in the coming days, significant changes are in order.

It matters not whether this club makes the playoffs. They will almost certainly be bounced in the first round. Should they even get there, who would truly be surprised if the Sox were swept in the ALDS?

This is not what John Henry and Tom Werner thought they were paying for. This team was stacked from day one and built to win. This season can only be viewed as an epic failure.

The front office let manager Terry Francona enter this season unsigned beyond 2011. Even when the Sox looked like the best team in baseball for much of the season, Theo Epstein and Co. were unwilling to offer Francona an extension.

The Red Sox hold options for future years, yet have given no indication that they want Francona back next year or beyond.

Maybe the Red Sox were withholding the extension as a motivational tool. One way or the other, Francona's future with the Red Sox is suddenly in question and his job may be on the line.

Personally, I think Epstein is far more to blame for this team's under-performance, due to all of his horrible signings. He gave Francona a team of overpaid, underachievers and expected him to win with them.

To follow is a list of the Red Sox highly expensive busts in 2011:

John Lackey $15.25M
Carl Crawford $14M
JD Drew $14M
Dice-K $10M
Mike Cameron $7.25M
Bobby Jenks $6M
Total $66.5M

The Sox got nothing, or next to nothing, from each of the above players.

Apparently, the whopping sum of $66.5 million doesn't buy what it used to.

That figure is equal to the entire payroll of the A's and more than the payrolls of the Nationals ($63.8M), Jays ($62.5M), Marlins ($56.9M), Diamondbacks ($53.6M), Indians ($49.1M), Padres ($45.8M), Pirates ($45M), Rays ($41M) and Royals ($36.1M).

Think about that; the Red Sox paid $66.5 million to just six under-achieving players, and it is more than the entire 25-man rosters of nine Major League teams.

Count me among those who are actually hoping this Red Sox team ultimately loses. They simply don't deserve a playoff spot. And what Red Sox fan actually wants to see this team continue to get embarrassed, as they have been all month long?

Failure is the first, necessary step in restoring desire, passion and accountability. It has to be an organic process. Bring it on.

Ultimately, the Red Sox now expect to win every year, which has led to complacency. That is a recipe for failure and let down.

This is not what the ownership is paying for. This is is not what the fans are paying for.

Everyone expects more, including the players.

The difference is, the players actually have to go out and earn it on the field.

Red Sox Will Face Same Issues Next Year If Rotation Isn't Upgraded

2011-09-22T14:59:00.000-07:00

After the middle-three pictured above, who else?

The fading Red Sox may not play another game at Fenway Park in 2010.

If that's the case, the Sox went 45-36 at home this season, their worst record since the 2002 team went 42-39.

The Sox dropped 20 of their final 33 games at Fenway and were 3-7 on the last homestand.

In the midst of a historically awful September, the Red Sox are now 5-16. They have lost five of six, 12 of 15, 14 of 18 and 16 of of their last 21 games.

The defense has been horrible in that stretch, committing 23 errors in the last 21 games. More errors than games? Yes, it's true.

And Red Sox' hitters have been entirely unpredictable, at times capable of huge offensive explosions, while at other times seeming laconic.

Lately, the once reliable Sox offense has been leaving far too any runners on base — many in scoring position — and grounding weakly into rally-killing double-plays.

But if you're looking for the real culprit in this epic — call it historic — collapse that is presently underway, look no further than Red Sox pitching.

The team's starting pitchers have given up 66 runs in the last 18 games.

In the four-game series against Baltimore, Red Sox' starters had a 9.47 ERA. The bullpen had a 5.83 ERA.

It's easy to feel emotionally detached from this team at this point; they seem like a bunch of highly paid underachievers.

The Sox have gotten little to nothing from left and right fields this season, and Kevin Youkilis was never really himself. That's a third of the lineup.

Last year's club was injury-plagued, yet scrappy. They had an assortment of nobodies, journeymen and rookies that all made meaningful contributions.

In short, they were a bunch of overachievers who were really easy to root for.

This year, the Red Sox opened the season with a roster full of All Stars and were the prohibitive AL favorites. By most estimates, the only thing between them and another World Series Championship was the Philadelphia Philles.

Indeed, this year's club has also had its share of injuries, the biggest of which was to Clay Buchholz, who hasn't taken the mound in more than three months. That really hurt.

But most of the injuries the Sox contended with were of the 15-day DL variety. It's part of the game; every team deals with it.

As far as the longer term injuries are concerned, given their histories, how much were guys like Daisuke Matsuzaka, JD Drew and Booby Jenks really expected to contribute? Rich Hill was a more significant loss.

Once it's clear that starting pitching was the reason for the Red Sox demise, one starter deserves most of the blame.

If John Lackey had only been the guy the Red Sox paid for and were expecting — say, just a solid No. 3 starter — they would have had three dependable starters and could have won three-fifths of their games.

That's not to say that those three starters would have won every start, but the other two wouldn't have lost every start either.

I wrote off this team weeks ago. I'm already thinking about next year, which will be very interesting.

The Sox will bring back three solid, reliable starters: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Buchholz. But after that?

They may, and should, try to dump Lackey. He's not cut out for this team, this town, or this division. It's time to acknowledge that signing Lackey was a regrettable decision and move on. Perhaps an NL team would be willing to take him if the Sox eat most of the contract.

Tim Wakefield cannot be depended on any more and is no longer a quality starter. Over the last two seasons, Wakefield has a 5.21 ERA; over the last three it's 5.00. It's time to say goodbye.

Andrew Miller was an experiment that failed, At this point, he's been a washout with three different MLB teams. Miller should have spent the entire year in the minors, where he belonged, working on his mechanics and delivery.

The Red Sox cannot possibly feel confident opening next season with Miller as one of their five starters.

A good question is whether Erik Bedard will come back on a one-year deal (perhaps with an option) to try to prove that he can stay healthy. Bedard seems to like the energy of Fenway and playing on a competitive team, which is something he never did in Baltimore or Seattle.

But, at this point, can the Red Sox place any confidence in him at all? Bedard hasn't remained healthy and made at least 30 starts since 2006.

Dice-K is not coming back next spring, and that's a good thing.

Kyle Weiland proved that he is not yet ready, and he may never be. Felix Doubront took huge steps backward this year. And there is no one else in the minors that is ready to step into the starting rotation right out of spring training.

When it comes to the last two spots in the rotation, the Red Sox have way more questions than answers.

This is a team that is way too highly paid to have two gaping holes in its rotation and to look this bad.

If they don't address those final two spots, we'll be looking at the same situation again next year.

Red Sox in Midst of Epic Collapse

2011-09-19T22:01:00.000-07:00

John Lackey has been a colossal failure this season and may be Theo Epstein's worst free agent signing.

I'm here to tell you right now that this season won't end well for the Red Sox. Consider this their epitaph.

In the last 31 games, Sox' starting pitchers have gone seven innings just three times. In that span, the Sox also have the worst ERA in baseball

Monday's double-header marked the 15th time in 19 games this month that a Red Sox starter has failed to go at least six innings. The Red Sox have lost 13 of those 15 games.

The lack of quality starts is just killing the Red Sox.

But it's not just pitching alone. The Sox have committed 21 errors in 19 games this month.

It's tough to find anything to feel truly optimistic about with this team right now.

Though they are capable of wild offensive highs, like the 18-run outbursts against the Orioles Monday night, the Sox are also prone to offensive hibernation. On six occasions this month, the Sox have scored two or fewer runs.

With this offense, lately, it's been feast or famine.

Boston cannot hope to win in the postseason with the kind of offensive explosions they've had much of this year. Such eruptions won't occur in the playoffs, should the Sox even get that far.

Playoff teams have great pitching — the kind that shuts down offenses and results in low-scoring games.

But the Red Sox don't possess that kind of pitching, which is why I think they won't make it very far in the playoffs — should they even qualify.

Honestly, with a two-game lead over the Rays in the loss column, and eight games to go, would it really surprise anyone if Tampa overtakes Boston?

The Sox have lost 12 of their last 15 games and do not even resemble a playoff team at this point. They have not won two in a row since August 27, when they swept a doubleheader from Oakland.

The Red Sox recent offensive and defensive struggles may iron themselves out. After all, the Sox have had the best offense in baseball this season and they also have the seventh best fielding percentage in the game.

It's the starting pitching that likely gives Theo Epstein sleepless nights. The present rotation cannot — and will not — win the Pennant, much less the World Series.

AL Leaders in Quality Starts (potential playoff teams):

Rays: 94, Rangers: 93, Angels: 91, Tigers: 87, Yankees: 80, Red Sox: 69

Red Sox Quality Starts/Total Starts

Becket 20/28
Lester 18/29
Lackey 8/27
Wakefield 8/22
Buchholz 6/14
Miller 3/12

Yes, John Lackey and Tim Wakefield have combined for two fewer quality starts than Jon Lester. If the Red Sox make the playoffs, one or both of them will be in the rotation, depending on the health of Erik Bedard.

Does any of that give you even the slightest bit of confidence?

Me neither.

I'm calling this season over as of today. Naturally, I hope I'm wrong. But, unfortunately, I strongly feel I'm right. This team just doesn't have "it."

And "it" really comes down to just one thing; starting pitching.

Tim Wakefield Finally Reaches Milestone, Notches 200th Win

2011-09-13T23:33:00.000-07:00

Jonathan Papelbon "congratulates" Tim Wakefield on joining the 200-win club

Since winning his 199th game on July 24 against Seattle, Tim Wakefield made a record eight attempts to reach 200. That marked a span of more than seven weeks in which Wakefield went winless.

But the eighth time proved to be a charm, as the Red Sox offense pounded out 18 runs in support of the knuckleballer.

Wakefield becomes just the 89th pitcher since 1900 to reach 200 career wins. And he is just the fifth player to do so in a Red Sox uniform, joining Curt Schilling (2006), Luis Tiant (1978), Fergie Jenkins (1976) and Lefty Grove (1934).

The oldest active player in the majors, at 45 years, 42 days, the 19-year veteran is also the second oldest pitcher to ever record 200 victories, behind Jack Quinn, who was 46 years, 339 days.

It's been a season of milestones for Wakefield, who became just the second pitcher in Red Sox history to record 2,000 Ks back in July. At this point, he may be getting used to making history.

Last year, Wakefield became the oldest pitcher to ever step on the mound for the Sox and the oldest to ever win a game for them.

However, in recent years, it's been a bit of a crapshoot every time Wakefield takes the mound.

When Wakefield throws his knuckleball, even he has absolutely no idea where it's going to end up after it leaves his hand. There are always an assortment of wild pitches and passed balls when Wakefield is on the hill.

Last season, Wakefield went 4-10 and posted a 5.34 ERA. The Sox were 6-13 in games he started. This year, he's 7-6, with a 5.13 ERA.

While the last few years have been a struggle, Wakefield has always given the Red Sox everything he has.

Wakefield's long career has been marked by competitiveness more than greatness; his 4.41 career ERA is the highest of any pitcher to ever win 200 games.

A former Roberto Clemente Award winner, Wakefield has been a gracious and giving member the Boston community, as well as a great teammate. He has done everything the Red Sox have ever asked of him: start, short relief, long relief... whatever.

But the reality is that he's had just four 15-win seasons in his 17 years with the Red Sox. His 200 wins are a testament to his grittiness and rock-solid determination more than anything else. After all, this is a man who has built a two-decade career based on just one pitch.

A seasoned veteran, Wakefield has given the Sox 21 starts this season, which is more than anyone could have imagined. Yet, the guy has gotten little help from his teammates along the way — not that you'll ever him complain about it.

If the Sox had played well behind him, it's not a stretch to imagine that he could have won half his starts and posted at least 10 victories by now.

This is how the Red Sox bullpen performed in Wakefield's no-decisions between his 199th and 200th wins:

Record: 2-2
Innings: 10
ERA: 10.80
BB/K: 9/11
WHIP: 2.33

Clearly, Wakefield deserved better. But nothing has ever come easy for him.

The last time Wakefield had a season in which he posted an ERA below 4.00 was in 2002, when it was 2.81.

Wakefield's career has not been marked by greatness, but rather by great effort and a passionate commitment to the Red Sox.

Consequently, there is no one else Red Sox fans would rather root for, or see reach yet another milestone.

Red Sox' Season on the Line

2011-09-13T08:48:00.000-07:00

Manager Terry Francona takes the ball from John Lackey, an image that's been all too regular this season.

The Boston Red Sox, pre-season favorites to won the World Series, appear to be a team on the ropes.

The Sox have lost five straight for the first time since they started the season 0-6. They have also lost seven of eight and nine of 11.

The Red Sox are suddenly in a free fall, their season spiraling out of control. To put it bluntly, this team is a mess.

The Rays, meanwhile, have won five straight and eight of nine to climb within three games of the wild-card lead in the loss column.

In the three-game series against Tampa, John Lackey, Kyle Weiland and Jon Lester combined for just just 11 innings and 12 earned runs.

Sox pitchers walked 16 and hit three in the series.

Those are some ugly numbers. But the most worrisome is that three Sox' starters combined for just 11 innings over three games. That's just unbelievable.

And such performances are disastrous for a team with playoff aspirations. The fact that the Sox' starters allowed more earned runs than innings pitched is astonishing.

Over the last five games, not one Red Sox starter has made it past the fifth inning. That is truly alarming.

Right now, four starting pitchers are out of the Boston rotation. This current group is not the one the Sox were counting on.

Boston began the season with what they thought were five legit starters. It's hard to build minor league depth in case of emergency because you can't stash quality veterans in Triple-A.

Most critically, the Sox were exposed as having big gap in their minor league system; they had no big league-caliber pitcher ready to step in during a pinch. Kyle Weiland is way out of his league right now and the Sox' next Major League-ready starter is at least two years away.

Felix Doubront was once thought to be that guy, but he has been plagued by injuries and inconsistency this year.

The truth is, no one ever expected Weiland to be pitching meaningful games for the Sox in September. When the season began, most fans had never even heard of him. The Sox have been forced to throw a minor league pitcher into the heat of a Pennant-chase fire, and Weiland hasn't responded well. He looks overwhelmed. If this is his big league audition, he has failed miserably.

Perhaps he has a future as a fifth starter in the NL.

Two years ago, the Sox traded pitchers Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price for Victor Martinez, a player who isn't even on their roster anymore. And then they parted with Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes last winter to obtain Adrian Gonzalez.

Trading four pitchers in the span of two years is now coming back to haunt the Sox.

Dealing all those prospects left the team without the elite talent that other clubs were coveting at this year's trade deadline.

Due to all of their assorted injuries, the Sox were forced to take a shot on Erik Bedard, a player with a lengthy injury history. Once again, he is dealing with injuries. That said, if he gets healthy, Bedard may still help the Sox in the playoffs... if they even get there

Unfortunately, the upper levels of Red Sox minor league system are now devoid of the kind of pitchers who could step in and really make a difference this season.

The Red Sox haven't developed a top prospect into a formidable big league pitcher since Clay Buchholz. That's why they went out and got Andrew Miller last winter, the No. 6 pick in the draft just five years ago.

The 26-year-old Miller should have spent the entire season in the minors, working on his mechanics and repeating his delivery. HIs agent did him no favors by insisting on a big league promotion under threat of exercising the lefty's out clause. Miller wasn't ready then, and he's still not ready now.

Tim Wakefield has given the Sox 20 starts, which is two-thirds of what a team might get out of a starter over a full season. No one could have predicted that. When the season started, it was uncertain where he even fit on the roster and some speculated that he might not even make the team out of spring training.

Wakefield is 45 and his best days — which were never that great to begin with — are over. He's doing the best he can, but that's not enough.

Having said that, the bullpen has let Wakefield down repeatedly and the offense hasn't supported him either.

Despite all of these issues, most of the blame must be put squarely on John Lackey.

Lackey was expected to be a major component of the starting rotation from the very beginning. In fact, he was hailed as a "big game" pitcher when he came to Boston, and in two years we've never seen it.

Fans can't help but hate the way he pitches. And then there's his horrible attitude. He's simply unprofessional and doesn't take responsibility.

It's reasonable to say that Lackey has worn out his welcome with Red Sox fans.

The Sox are in deep trouble. At this point, it wouldn't be surprising if they fail to make the playoffs. And even if they do, it's doubtful that they'll make it out of the first round. It's simple matter; they just don't have the pitching.

The Sox' rotation is razor thin right now, and that's being exposed night after night.

Red Sox Nation in Panic

2011-09-10T14:34:00.000-07:00

Suddenly, Red Sox Nation is panicking. And for good reason.

Going into last night's game (in which they scored only two runs and lost), the Red Sox were 6-7 in their previous 13 games, while scoring the second most runs in baseball.

The Sox have now lost eight of their last 11 games. And even in the three games they won during that stretch, the Sox allowed five runs in a 9-5 win, seven runs in a 12-7 win, and also lost a game in which they actually scored 10 runs (11-10).

With an ERA over six this month, Red Sox' pitching is a mess and genuine reason for concern.

To start the season, the Sox' rotation was Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Then injuries began to mount and take their toll.

In May, Lackey was the first starter to go on the DL, followed soon after by Matsuzaka, who was eventually lost for the season.

The Sox were concerned enough to sign veteran Kevin Milwood, who never inspired enough confidence at Pawtucket to even warrant a promotion to the big league club.

The string of injuries eventually compelled the Sox to promote lefty Andrew Miller, who had an out-clause in his contract that his agent promised to invoke if Miller was not immediately promoted.

That put the 26-year-old in a situation he proved to be entirely unprepared for; facing Major League hitters. All of Miller's old weaknesses quickly resurfaced.

Later in June, Clay Buchholz went on the DL and he has not taken the mound since.

In July, it was Jon Lester's turn to go on the DL. Before the month was over, the Sox traded for the oft-injured Erik Bedard, who was just coming of yet another stint on the DL, this time due to an injured knee.

By September, Josh Beckett had suffered an ankle sprain that has him listed as "day-to-day."

Meanwhile, Bedard is still suffering from the effects of that previous knee injury and, in addition, is now said to be ailing from a latissimus injury as well.

Most recently, Lackey suffered a bruise to his calf last night, after giving up five earned runs in just three innings.

Consequently, the Sox rotation presently consists of Lester, rookie Kyle Weiland (0-1, 6.75 ERA), Tim Wakefield (6-6, 5.03 ERA), Miller (6-3, 5.58 ERA) and... who knows?

That's a far cry from the Opening Day rotation that was expected to be among the best in baseball.

The saving grace for the Red Sox this season has been an offense that's been the best in baseball, leading the majors in batting, hits, doubles, OBP, slugging, OPS and is second in runs, RBI and home runs.

However, Red Sox hitters will only carry this team so far. Offense can get them into the playoffs, but pitching wins championships.

And therein lies the problem.

Aside from Lester and Beckett, eight other starters have taken the mound for the Red Sox this season. Those eight starters have managed a quality start (six innings, three runs or less) just 34% of the time, and the team ERA is 5.25 with them.

The troubling reality is that this team currently has just two legitimate starters, and October is fast approaching.

The Red Sox will be lucky if Clay Buchholz can give them an inning or two in relief in the coming weeks. Yes, the current panic is warranted.

John Lackey, the guy who was signed to be an ace — absent any of that pressure as the team's number four pitcher — has had a miserable 2011.

Starts 25
Record 12-12
ERA 6.30
Innings 144.1
BB/K 50/97
WHIP 1.59

Lackey's 6.30 ERA is the highest in Red Sox history for a pitcher with a minimum of 25 starts. Need I say more? He is officially the worst pitcher in team history.

How bad is Lackey? Well, consider this: In Tim Lincecum’s 11 losses this year, he has a 4.10 ERA, which is better John Lackey’s 4.13 ERA in his 12 wins.

Such an outcome was hard to imagine when the Red Sox threw $82.5 million at Lackey for five years of service. If it weren't for that massive contract, the Sox would probably consider releasing him.

But as it is, with their starting pitching so thin, the Sox have no choice but to let Lackey continue to take the mound and hope he can somehow manage to keep the team in the game for six innings.

Who else are the Sox going to trust down the stretch, much less in the playoffs; Felix Doubront or Michael Bowden? Not likely.

While many argue that Alfredo Aceves should start, he is — at best — a five inning pitcher. Aceves plays a critical roll as the sixth or seventh inning pitcher, or as a long reliever when one of the starters inevitably implodes. Who takes over that vital roll should Aceves become a starter?

The Red Sox' pitching is dangerously thin and there are no good answers on the horizon.

They can only hope that a healthy Beckett returns very soon, and that his ankle problem is a thing of the past.

They must also hope that Bedard gets healthy and stays that way. But given his lengthy injury history, that seems like wild-eyed optimism.

Right now, the Rays are just five games back in the loss column versus the Sox for the wild card spot, with six games left to play between the two clubs.

The playoffs, once an afterthought, are no longer a given.

Hold your breath, close your eyes when necessary, and keep your expectations realistic, Red Sox fans.

Given the reality of the Boston rotation, this no longer looks like the 100-win team everyone was talking about just weeks ago. And they hardly look like a legitimate World Series contender either.

Pitching wins championships.

For Red Sox, Like All Others, Prospects Are a Gamble, Not a Guarantee

2011-08-31T12:36:00.001-07:00

Pawtucket outfield prospect Ryan Kalish is escorted from the field by a team trainer on April 21, 2011

According to Alex Speier of WEEI, Ryan Kalish will undergo season-ending surgery on Thursday. Kalish has a bulging disc in his cervical spine that is impinging a nerve.

Kalish played only 22 games for Class AAA Pawtucket this season because of a partial tear of the labrum in his left shoulder, which occurred while diving for a ball in the outfield in April.

That was then followed by the disc problem in his neck.

This season turned out to be an utter disaster for the highly-touted Kalish, as the back-to-back injuries disrupted his development and progress.

However, Kalish, who turns 24 in March, is expected to be ready for spring training. But who knows how he'll be playing at that time, and what may have been lost due to the combination of injuries and all that time off.

Just last year, nearly everyone was penciling in Kalish as JD Drew's right field replacement for 2012 and beyond. But this year, he got hurt and you hardly heard his name mentioned.

Soon enough, Josh Reddick emerged and suddenly he was the Sox' future right fielder. But ultimately Reddick's hitting cooled off considerably and some of the former shine was gone.

Reddick's future at this point? Who knows?

There are countless cautionary tales about prospects. Some come with a lot of hype and don't pan out as projected. Others are derailed by injury.

Ryan Westmoreland was the No. 1 prospect in the Red Sox' system two years ago, well ahead of Kalish and Reddick. Then he had brain-stem surgery to save his life, and now he's not even on the radar anymore.

It would be a miracle if Westmoreland even makes it back to Triple A, where he left off.

Prospects are a gamble. There are always guys like the much-heralded Brian Rose, a can't-miss Sox prospect who missed.

Then there are guys like Justin Masterson, traded for Cleveland catcher Victor Martinez in 2009, who will likely haunt the Red Sox for years to come.

Who knows if Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes will all become future All Stars? Maybe it will be just one of them will, or perhaps none at all? But the Red Sox undoubtedly got a perennial All Star in return, Adrian Gonzalez.

It's important to remember that prospects aren't just valuable in terms of their direct future impact on your big league ball club, but also in what they might procure in a trade.

When dealing, or dealing with, prospects, there will always be winners and losers — in many ways.

Jacoby Ellsbury Emerging As An Elite Player

2011-08-07T12:14:00.000-07:00

Against the Yankees yesterday, Jacoby Ellsbury belted a home run and drove in six runs to help the Red Sox to a 10-4 victory.

The performance exemplified the stellar season the Red Sox' leadoff hitter is having.

Ellsbury is batting .321 with 19 homers, 72 RBIs and 31 stolen bases. Incredibly, 13 of those home runs have come in the last month.

Prior to this year, Ellsbury's single season highs were nine home runs (2008) and 60 RBI (2009). In fact, Ellsbury's career home run total was just 20; he is now just two home runs away from surpassing that total.

Remarkably, Ellsbury has more homers than proven sluggers Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Matt Holliday, Jayson Werth and Adam Dunn.

Frankly, Ellsbury looks as much like a middle-of-the-order hitter as a leadoff hitter.

Ellsbury hit eight home runs in July, the second highest by any Red Sox center fielder in one month since 1946. In May 2000, Carl Everett had nine.

The Sox' center fielder has suddenly emerged as a super star.

Among all Major Leaguers, Ellsbury is 20th in slugging, 16th in RBI, 9th in batting, 6th in steals, 5th in doubles, 4th in hits and 2nd in runs.

The most stunning aspect is that he's a leadoff hitter.

If he continues to play this way, Ellsbury will likely be among the Most Valuable Player Award candidates at season's end.

Ellsbury becomes a free agent following the 2013 season, meaning the Red Sox have him under their control for just two more years. After that, he will be available to the highest bidder.

Ellsbury will be 30-years-old at that time, and given that Scott boras is his agent, he will become a very rich man.

The Sox certainly have the money to pay Ellsbury. But if Carl Crawford is worth $142 million, how much is Ellsbury worth?

It seems the Sox shot themselves in the foot with the Crawford deal.

His poor 2011 season aside, it's hard to see how Crawford ever lives up to that contract. No player who had ever failed to hit at least 20 homers in a season had previously been given a $20 million-per-year deal.

A contract of that size is certainly a lot to live up to, and already it appears to be weighing on Crawford.

The Crawford pact has totally altered the baseball landscape. Not only had the left fielder never hit 20 home runs in a season, he had never driven in 100 runs, never slugged .500, never had an OBP above .364 and never had 200 hits in any season.

On the other hand, Ellsbury is on the verge of doing all of that.

Crawford's greatest assets are his speed and defense. Yet, this season, Crawford has just 85 hits, 17 doubles and 13 stolen bases. His base-stealing prowess has been diminished by a meager .287 OBP.

What's more, playing in Fenway Park's shallow left field has muted most of Crawford's speed and defensive skills. Simply put, those skills are being wasted in at least 81 home games a season.

Boras will surely use Crawford as a yardstick for his client. But given that Ellsbury is excelling in areas that leadoff hitters aren't normally expected to, Boras may also compare his client to middle-of-the-order hitters, like Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira, both of whom got substantially bigger contracts than Crawford.

It's worth saying again; Ellsbury is poised to become an exceedingly rich man at just 30-years of age.

The Red Sox may ultimately regret Carl Crawford's excessive contract; not just because he'll likely fail to earn it, but because of how much it will cost to retain Ellsbury just two years from now.

Having proved himself to be among the elite players in the game today, the emerging super star, Ellsbury, is earning it — unlike Crawford.

Red Sox Roll Dice With Erik Bedard & Hope for the Best

2011-08-01T12:14:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox' motivation in trading for Erik Bedard yesterday is glaringly obvious; the organization surely knew the prognosis for Clay Buchholz was not good.

Additionally, John Lackey has a 6.20 ERA, Andrew Miller has a 5.36 ERA and Tim Wakefield has a 5.06 ERA. With three-fifths of the starting rotation possessing ERAs north of 5.00, management was prompted to action.

So, the Sox rolled the dice and traded for an injury-plagued 32-year-old lefty who spent four full seasons (2004-'07) pitching for the Baltimore Orioles in the highly competitive AL East.

The upside for the Red Sox is that Bedard is AL East battle-tested. However, he has never appeared in the post-season.

Pitching for an absolutely horrible Seattle team this year, Bedard was 4-7 with a 3.45 ERA. The latter is the more important statistic here.

Bedard is a control pitcher who throws between 93-95 miles per hour with a good curveball. This season, he has rung up 87 strikeouts and walked just 30 batters in 91 1/3 innings. That's a nearly 3-to-1 strikeout ratio.

Though Bedard has made 16 starts this year, he missed all of last season with an injury to his pitching shoulder. And that's the worry; even before missing all of 2010, Bedard had made just 15 starts in both 2008 and 2009.

However, the Canadian has a 2.35 ERA in his last 12 starts dating to April 27, which ranks fourth among American League pitchers with at least 70 innings during that span.

That kind of performance is no fluke; since 2006, Bedard leads all AL pitchers with a .231 opponents’ batting average and 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings.

And among major leaguers who have thrown at least 500 innings since the start of the 2006 season, Bedard ranks 15th in ERA with a 3.41 mark, slightly ahead of Matt Cain (3.43), Dan Haren (3.44) and Zack Greinke (3.45), and just behind Cole Hamels (3.40).

These statistics provide a sense of the pitcher the Red Sox just traded for, or at least the kind of potential he possesses.

Yet, the enduring question that has plagued Bedard over the past four years is whether he can remain healthy. In fact, the lefty has made just 107 starts over the past six seasons, while a healthy starter might have been expected to make 170-180.

If you're an optimist, you can take solace in the fact that Bedard's latest DL stint was the result of a left knee sprain.

So far this season, the veteran hurler's arm appears healthy. Guys with bum shoulders don't typically throw 93-95 miles per hour.

The Red Sox knew this. They read all the reports in Bedard's medical history and scouted him consistently since spring training. Obviously, management felt confident enough to consummate the deal.

But, given Buchholz's status, their backs were clearly against the wall.

Right now, the Red Sox have just two reliable starters — Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. As good as that duo is, they can't win the Pennant on their own.

So the Sox will hope for the best from John Lackey and their newly acquired lefty. If the two pitch up to their full potential, the Red Sox may be unstoppable in their quest for another World Series title.

If they don't, we may all remember this as yet another season lost.

Red Sox Facing Weak Trade Market at Deadline

2011-07-25T13:46:00.000-07:00

For Red Sox, Justin Masteron Remains the 'One That Got Away"

Going into their 100th game of the season today, the Red Sox find themselves leading the AL East, three games ahead of the Yankees.

The Sox lead the majors in runs, hits, doubles, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. If there's a problem with the offense, I can't find it.

The Red Sox clearly aren't hurting with the combination of Josh Reddick, JD Drew and Darnell McDonald in right field.

Yes, a right-handed outfielder would be a nice complement. But all of the early concerns about the Red Sox' lineup being being too lefty-dominant were overblown, as the above offensive statistics prove. What's more, the Sox have the fourth-best OPS against lefties in the majors.

Clearly, offense is not the Red Sox' issue.

Of greater concern is the health of Clay Buchholz, who hasn't pitched since June 16.

The 26-year-old's back woes proved to be much more problematic than first diagnosed and no one seems sure exactly when he'll return to the mound, much less how effective he'll be once he gets there.

If Buchholz doesn't return in full health, the Red Sox current pitching depth could prove problematic.

John Lackey has been erratic, at best, and sports an eye-popping 6.28 ERA. The same could be said for Time Wakefield (5.15 ERA), Andrew Miller (4.65 ERA) and Kyle Weiland (8.10 ERA in two starts).

None in that group inspires confidence, nor would any be an effective No. 3 pitcher for the Red Sox down the stretch, much less in October.

The Red Sox high-powered offense has been out-slugging opponents, obscuring the club's starting pitching deficiencies. But the same trend can't be anticipated in the playoffs. Pitching wins championships.

Expect the Red Sox to work the phones this week in search of some pitching help.

However, while the team will make all reasonable inquiries, there isn't any available starting pitcher that would be a real difference-maker. The Sox will not ransom their top prospects for a No. 5 starter, or a two-month rental with no future in the rotation.

There are currently 14 teams within five games of a division lead, meaning most will be players at the trade deadline. While the competition may be fierce, the pickings will be slim, making this a seller's market. Prices will be high, while the talent pool will be shallow.

Additionally, the Sox have traded away some of their top prospects in recent years, including Nick Hagadone and Justin Masterson (for Victor Martinez), as well as Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes (for Adrian Gonzalez).

Four of those five players were selected in the first-round or sandwich round, while Masterson was taken in the second-round.

The trade that enabled the Red Sox to acquire Martinez from Cleveland has become a cautionary tale. Masterson has a 2.57 ERA and 1.17 WHIP for the Indians, while reliever Nick Hagadone has 31 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings and a 1.18 WHIP for Triple A Columbus.

The 26-year-old Masterson throws a sinking fastball at 95-96 miles per hour and has emerged as one of the top young pitchers in baseball. It appears the Red Sox gave up at least one gem in that deal, which could haunt them for years.

Regrettably, the Sox had to throw $82.5 million at Lackey to fill a spot in the rotation and Martinez turned into a year-and-a-half rental.

Meanwhile, Masterson’s 2.57 ERA is top-10 (ahead of pitchers named Sabathia, Hamels, Lee and Lincecum) and his 8-7 record is due, in part, to his team being shut out in four of those losses.

It's safe to say that Theo Epstein would like a do-over with that deal. With this memory fresh in mind, the Red Sox' GM will wade into this year's underwhelming trade market.

The good news for the Sox is that the Yankees and other playoff hopefuls will be faced with the same shallow and over-priced talent pool. Boston's advantage is that they are in first place, have a dynamic offense, and will finally see the return of Jon Lester tonight after an 18-day stint on the DL.

That's welcome news, given that the Sox' pitching staff has been decimated by the losses of four of its five Opening Day starters to the DL at various points this season.

The Sox will hold out hope that Buchholz makes a healthy return, particularly for the September stretch and hopefully a triumphant October run. In the meantime they will rely on the unpredictable combo of Wakefield, Miller and Weiland.

While some are still holding out hope that we'll see Felix Doubront at some point. the 23 year old lefty has been sidelined by elbow, groin and hamstring injuries much of the season.

Doubront made three relief appearances for the Sox in April and has made just 14 minor league appearances this season. He is both unhealthy and unproven and will not be riding to the Red Sox' rescue this year.

So, while Theo Epstein may make a move for a pitcher this week, it won't likely be big, bold or costly.

If anything, Epstein would love to find a way to pry Masterson back from the Indians.

Good luck with that, Theo.

Tim Wakefield Staking HIs Place in Red Sox History

2011-07-07T14:49:00.000-07:00

Among active Major League pitchers, Red Sox' knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is second with 2,103 strikeouts.

Included in that total are the 110 strikeouts Wakefield recorded during his first two seasons in the Majors with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

However, the 44-year-old Wakefield, now in his 17th season with the Red Sox, is poised to become just the second pitcher in club history to record 2,000 Ks.

After fanning seven batters on Wednesday night, Wakefield sits atop 1,993 strikeouts and should reach the milestone sometime shortly after the All Star break.

The Red Sox are a team with 100-plus years of history, so Wakefield's accomplishment will be significant.

Speaking of significant, Wakefield also recorded his 184th win with the Red Sox on Wednesday night, putting him just eight behind the legendary Cy Young and Roger Clemens.

Including his two years with the Pirates, Wakefield now has 198 career victories and before the month is over could reach 200.

While it once seemed quite improbable that Wakefield would ever catch or eclipse the two Red Sox legends, it now seems imminently possible.

On Wednesday evening, Wakefield gave the Red Sox his fifth quality start of the season and posted a season-high seven strikeouts.

If he continues to pitch this effectively, Wakefield still has a half-season of baseball ahead of him — and a potent Red Sox offense behind him —— in his quest for 193 wins with the Sox.

At this point, that milestone seems entirely possible.

Having gotten this far on essentially one pitch, Wakefield is obviously a very determined man. Besides, one doesn't get too many opportunities to make history.

At present, the Red Sox are in a very unique period of team history in that three of club's Top-10 strikeout leaders are on the current roster.

While Wakefield is in second place and will retire there (he'll never match Clemens' 2,590 Ks), Josh Beckett is ninth, with 930 strikeouts, and Jon Lester is 10th, with 822 Ks.

Who knows where Beckett and Lester will end up on that list? Both pitchers are young and highly talented, so the sky seems to be the limit.

The Red Sox' record book is filled with names like Cy Young, Mel Parnell, Luis Tiant, Smokey Joe Wood and Mel Parnell — players from long ago whom many Sox fans have only heard of and never saw play.

And though players like Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez are from more recent history, they are still history nonetheless.

However, at present, Red Sox fans of all ages can watch Tim Wakefield stake his claim to the club record book. And what a claim it is.

Wakefield is currently first in starts and innings, and second in wins, strikeouts and games.

Enjoy the moment, folks. Though he is not a Hall of Fame-caliber player, someday we'll all be able to tell our kids and grandkids that we saw the legendary Tim Wakefield pitch for the Red Sox.

Granted, Wakefield may not be a truly elite pitcher. But before his career is over he will have certainly become legendary in the annals of Red Sox history.

In fact, he already is.

Red Sox Surging Despite Lack of Offense From Three Key Players

2011-06-20T18:14:00.000-07:00

The red hot Red Sox are on a roll. The team has won 13 of its last 15 games.

After a listless April that resulted in a 10-15 record, the Red Sox proceeded to right the ship and post a 19-10 record in May.

And the streaking Sox are now 13-3 in June, finally looking like the team everyone was expecting after a rather eventful offseason.

Perhaps the most amazing thing about the Sox' resurgence is that two of their stalwarts, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, are hitting well below their career averages.

Youkilis, a career .291 hitter, is batting just .261 well into June.

The good news is that Youkilis has a .382 OBP (career .393) and, after hitting safely in eight of his last 10 games with 14 RBIs, is on an upswing.

Meanwhile, Pedroia, a career .301 hitter, is hitting just .269. However, his .377 OBP is seven points above his career average.

In the midst of his own upswing, Pedroia is 22 of 60 (.367) with nine extra-base hits and 14 RBIs in 15 games this month. The second baseman has hit in 12 of his last 13 games and is batting .392 with two homers in that span.

Both players missed significant time due to injuries last year, and that may have affected their play earlier this season. Pedroia played in just 75 games last year, while Youkilis appeared in only 102.

Pedroia's injury was more worrisome, since he still has screws holding his left ankle together. Given his self-professed "violent swing," which results in significant force being placed on that left foot every time he takes a cut, it's easy to ascribe Pedroia's early struggles to his surgically repaired ankle.

Perhaps the ankle is more fully healed now. Additionally, Pedroia is finally getting over the right knee bruise he sustained on May 16 while fielding a ball against Baltimore.

But the early struggles of Youkilis and Pedroia aren't the only disappointments thus far, nor are they the only things making the Sox' resurgence all the more surprising.

Carl Crawford, the $142 million man, is playing well below expectations.

Crawford, a career .294 hitter, is batting just .243 this year. And his .275 OBP, which is 59 points below his career average, is keeping the speedy Crawford off the base paths. As a result, he is not the base-stealing threat the Red Sox were anticipating.

Crawford averaged 45 steals over nine previous seasons, yet has just eight so far this year. For perspective, Dustin Pedroia — the guy with the bad ankle and knee — already has 13 thefts this year.

The truth is, the Sox' new left fielder really hasn't excelled in any facet of the game so far this season. Case in point; Crawford has just 21 extra-base hits.

So, when you consider the under-performance of these three Red Sox players — and we're talking about three former All Stars who were expected to help carry the club — the team's turnaround and sustained drive are all the more amazing.

Even with Youkilis, Pedroia and Crawford all performing well below their career averages, the Red Sox are still first in batting, OBP, hits, runs, RBI and total bases among AL teams. And they are second in slugging, behind the Yankees.

Should the under-performing trio all continue to improve and rise to their career-levels, the Red Sox will be a juggernaut.

Youkilis, Pedroia and Crawford represent one-third of the Red Sox' starting lineup and are three of the better players in the game today.

Considering that the Sox are still managing to win consistently despite the trio's sub-par play, should they ever perform to their full potential, Boston will surely be the team to beat in October.

JD Drew Seems to Have Already Retired

2011-06-05T01:59:00.000-07:00

To the delight of many Red Sox fans, right fielder JD Drew is now in the final year of his five-year, $70 million contract.

However, just two months into the 2011 season, it seems as if Drew has already decided to retire.

Drew has played in 46 games and had 145 at-bats, yet has only eight extra-base hits to show for it.

Consider this: Drew Sutton, who has played in just 10 games and had just 28 at-bats, has more doubles (5) than Drew (4).

Equally disturbing, Drew has a mere 12 RBI, including his game winner on Saturday.

It was nice to see Drew exhibit some sign of life, if only for a moment.

However, after celebrating with his teammates — who had mobbed him on the field in the aftermath of his game-winning hit — Drew immediately returned to his usual stone-face as he left the field.

The moment exemplified Drew's stoic nature. Some might argue that his demeanor is ideal for a ball player, and that he is just even-keeled and not prone to excessive highs or lows.

Others, however, would argue that Drew barely displays a pulse and shows little emotion or enthusiasm for the game. It's fair to say that Drew typically appears dispassionate, disinterested, and complacent.

And that's just what makes his lackluster performance this season so frustrating. To this point, Drew's line is a miserable .228/.335/.331. Long heralded for his OPS, Drew is sporting a paltry .666 OPS this season.

OPS is a combination of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The point of getting on base is to score. However, Drew doesn't do that with any particular skill or consistency. In fact, he has never scored more than 84 runs in his previous four years with the Red Sox.

This season, Drew has scored a mere 12 runs and is on pace to score about 36 runs in total. Like the rest of his numbers, that is just pathetic.

A high slugging percentage is achieved with an abundance of extra-base hits. The point of extra-base hits is to drive in base runners, or move them — or yourself — into scoring position.

However, Drew is not a run producer either. In four seasons with the Red Sox, he has never driven in 100 runs. His best output was just 68 RBI. This year, he is on pace for a paltry 36 RBI.

If a player performs well, no one cares if he displays a cool, detached demeanor. But when a player performs at a level as low as Drew does, that demeanor seems like a lack of will or interest.

Drew simply isn't getting it done. At this point, it's fair to say that's he's just mailing it in and collecting enormous paychecks.

Mike Cameron (.175/.239/.333) clearly isn't the solution, or even a viable alternative. Maybe Cameron just hasn't been given enough time to play, or enough at-bats. Or maybe he just got old really fast. One way or the other, he doesn't inspire confidence right now.

With that in mind, you have to wonder how much longer the Red Sox will tolerate this gaping hole in their lineup? They could certainly use a potent right-handed bat in their lefty-dominant batting order.

Though he is also a left-handed hitter, Josh Reddick will likely be given more playing time. At a minimum, he'll be given an opportunity to display his skills for major league scouts.

The general assumption is that Ryan Kalish will become the Red Sox' new right fielder once Drew's contract expires at season's end. But if Kalish's injured shoulder heals sufficiently, that moment could arrive a lot sooner.

If the Sox really do place greater value on Kalish and see a higher upside for him, Reddick would certainly be expendable.

Additionally, Kalish is also a lefty, lending credence to the notion that the Sox might like to package players like Reddick and Marco Scutaro for a right-handed corner outfielder with some power.

One way or the other, the Red Sox — a team with realistic World Series aspirations — can't afford to just let Drew ride out the season taking called third strikes and grounding out weakly to second.

Regardless of whether he's injured, or has failing eyesight, or has just completely lost what little heart and desire he once had, Drew is now a total liability at the plate.

The best you can say about Drew is that he is a solid right fielder with good instincts, who covers lots of ground, gets to plenty of balls and prevents hits. He is also a good baserunner who displays equally good instincts on the base paths.

The problem for Drew is that he's not on the base paths nearly enough to utilize those skills. And it's not as if he's creating lots of runs with sacrifice flies either.

Maybe Drew needs a new bat. Maybe he needs a new heart. Or maybe he just needs to officially retire right now.

Tim Wakefield Just 12 Wins From Surpassing Roger Clemens & Cy Young

2011-05-27T23:10:00.000-07:00

With his win tonight, Tim Wakefield is just 11 wins behind Roger Clemens and Cy Young on the Red Sox' all time wins list.

Wakefield now has 181 wins in 17 seasons with the Red Sox, while Clemens and Young are tied at 192 wins apiece.

Young achieved the total in just eight seasons, while Clemens did it in 13.

Tonight, Wakefield pitched seven strong innings, allowing five hits and two earned runs, while walking two and striking out two.

Over his last two starts, Wakefield has gone 13.2 innings, allowing nine hits, two walks and three earned runs.

With Wakefield pitching so effectively, the Red Sox may feel inclined to keep him in Daisuke Matsuzaka's spot in the rotation.

Although Alfredo Aceves has been excellent over two recent spot starts (11 innings, 8 hits, 2 ER), he is much better suited to the bullpen than Wakefield.

If Wakefield were to get 20 more starts from now until season's end (a reasonable expectation), given the Red Sox potent offense, he would have a credible chance to win 12 games.

Viewed from another perspective, Wakefield has four months to get 12 more wins and become the winningest pitcher in team history.

The knuckleballer also needs just 31 more Ks to become only the second pitcher in Red Sox history to record 2,000 strikeouts. Roger Clemens is the Sox all-time leader with 2,590 punch outs.

The 2,000 strikeout plateau seems well within Wakefield's reach. If he averages just 3.1 Ks over his next 10 starts, he'll reach that milestone.

The 12 wins will be a greater challenge. But while such an achievement once seemed improbable, it also seems to now be within Wakefield's grasp.

Jon Lester: Winner, Strikeout Machine

2011-05-21T12:15:00.000-07:00

With his win against the Yankees last Saturday, Jon Lester improved his career record to 66-26, giving him a .7173 career win percentage. That surpassed former Yankee Spud Chandler (.7171) for the highest in baseball’s modern era among pitchers with 50 decisions.

Though he had a bit of a rough start last night, allowing a career-high 12 hits, two walks and five earned runs, Lester kept on winning, improving to 6-1 this season.

However, there are a few concerns. Lester has allowed 14 earned runs over his last 16 1/3 innings, his worst three-game stretch in more than a year.

Despite those recent struggles, Lester hasn't lost since April 12. And though his ERA has been rising, it's still a respectable 3.68.

However, one thing Lester continues to do with great consistency is strike out opposing hitters.

On May 3, Lester struck out at least 10 batters (11) for the 15th time in his career, the most ever among Red Sox lefthanders.

Only Pedro Martinez (72), Roger Clemens (68) and Smoky Joe Wood (18) had more double-digit strikeout games than Lester.

And last night, Lester struck out five more batters, giving him 775 in his career. In the process, Lester passed Dutch Leonard (771) for second place all-time among Red Sox lefthanders.

Earlier this season, Lester passed the great Lefty Grove (743) on that list as well.

The 27-year-old Lester has entered some elite company in team history. The only lefty who struck out more batters in his Red Sox career was Bruce Hurst, who fanned 1,043 hitters from 1980 to 1988.

Before this season is over, Lester will almost certainly have entered the Red Sox Top 10 in strikeouts.

Lester fanned 225 batters in each of the last two seasons, joining Smoky Joe Wood and Cy Young, each of whom struck out at least 200 in two different seasons.

Over 10 starts this season. Lester has fanned 63 batters. Should he reach 200 again this year, he would become just the third Sox pitcher to accomplish the feat.

In Red Sox history, only two pitchers have reached the 200 K mark in more than two seasons; Roger Clemens (8 years) and Pedro Martinez (6 years).

The Red Sox are quite fortunate to have a big, lefthanded power-pitcher just entering his prime.

Over parts of six season, Lester has already joined an elite list of Red Sox pitchers and begun etching his name in the club record book.

It's safe to say that Jon Lester is on his way to becoming the greatest lefty in Red Sox history, and within just a couple of years the statistics will clearly bear this out.

Should he remain healthy, Lester will likely become one of the five greatest pitchers in club history, righties included.

Most importantly, Lester is a winner who gives the Red Sox the likelihood of victory every time he takes the mound.

Lackey Is Lacking

2011-05-14T13:39:00.000-07:00

What's wrong with John Lackey? Is it personal issues, or is Lackey just not cut out for the glare of Boston and the heat of the AL East?

In his last outing, Lackey allowed 14 base-runners and 9 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. If a pitcher puts that many guys on base, it's likely he'll give up at least six runs every time.

The right-hander has allowed a combined 17 runs in his last two starts, a 10 2/3-inning span during which he's struck out just two batters.

Lackey has made six starts this season; just two of them were quality starts. He is the rotation's equivalent of JD Drew; an overpaid under-achiever.

This is Lackey's line in 2011:

Starts: 7
Record: 2-5
ERA: 8.01
Innings: 39.1 (avg. 5.6 per start)
BB/K: 18/19
WHIP: 1.81

If Lackey were to pitch 23 consecutive scoreless innings (which isn't going to happen), he'd bring his ERA to 5 or under.

He's in such a deep hole, it's hard to envision how he gets out of it. And his mental issues only compound whatever technical/mechanical issues he is facing.

Lackey revealed in spring training that his wife, Krista, was battling breast cancer.

After his recent, horrendous outing, Lackey told the media, "Everything (bleeps) in my life right now to be honest with you."

The guy sounds utterly confused, even lost.

"I don't know what the hell happened tonight," he said after the game. "I threw the ball way better than last start. I don't know."

Of his season, Lackey said, "I guess I shouldn't be surprised. I don't know."

He's right. This really isn't a surprise at all.

Lackey's decline is not new or sudden; it's been going on for years. Since leading the AL with a 3.01 ERA in 2007, Lackey's ERA has gone up each successive year: 3.75, 3.83, 4.40, and 8.01 this season.

The size of his five-year, $82 million contract only adds to the pressure and the expectations. The fans feel that they are paying Lackey's salary through ticket sales, concessions and the like. Regular Joe's who are making forty grand a year expect a guy like Lackey to earn his pay, just as they do.

Though he's never been a power pitcher, Lackey's fastball has lost some zip in the middle innings, something that hasn't gone unnoticed.

"I think his stuff has been inconsistent," general manager Theo Epstein said of Lackey. "His velocity has been there more early in games. He hasn't necessarily held the velocity through the middle and late innings as much as he has in the past."

Epstein said that Red Sox coaches are analyzing everything ("stuff, command, movement, mechanical issues") in attempt to help Lackey and straighten him out.

Lackey was skipped in the rotation early this season and he didn't like it one bit. But apparently it motivated him in a way that his huge contract doesn't, because he responded quite well in his next start in Oakland.

Perhaps the Red Sox will give Lackey a mental health break, a family/personal issues break, or whatever they want to call it. It won't hurt the team. In fact, at this point it could only help. Let's face it, Tim Wakefield or Felix Dubront couldn't possibly be any worse.

Hopefully whatever Lackey's issues are, they will soon be resolved for the better. It's assumed this all has to do with his wife's health. But that is merely an assumption. Who knows what else is going on with Lackey? After all, he did say, "Everything in my life sucks right now." That's very opaque and it sounds like an awful lot is going on.

Even if Lackey's issues are soon resolved, we will eventually return to the fact that he is a 10-year veteran with a lifetime ERA just under 4. And, as noted, that ERA has been steadily climbing for five straight years.

Lackey is way past the developmental stage. This is who he is, What you see is what you get.

Lackey has never won 20 games or struck out 200 batters in a season. Additionally, he made 30 starts and pitched 200 innings just once in the previous three seasons.

The Red Sox knew all of this when they signed him.

And if performance wasn't enough, Lackey has a bad habit of showing up his teammates on the mound with his facial contortions and body language when things don't go his way — which is often. Every ball that gets through the infield or finds its way into the gap seems to be someone else's fault in his mind.

You have to wonder; how long before he loses his teammates?

Get used to it Red Sox fans; there are more than 3 1/2 years remaining on that five-year, $82.5 million contract.

Red Sox Continue To Dance: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

2011-05-07T11:43:00.000-07:00

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez has been one of the few bright spots for the Red Sox this season.

The Red Sox continue to confound us all. We're now 20 percent through this season, and the Red Sox are 14-18 and in last place in the AL East.

Yes, there have been signs of hope. But every time the Sox seem to take one step forward, they take two steps back. Amazingly, the Sox have yet to get to .500 this season. That's just pathetic.

Over a recent 17-game stretch, the Sox went 12-5 and were still a game under .500. And now they've gone backward from there.

This team's problems are numerous, including its anemic offense.

The Red Sox have scored more than six runs in just eight of 32 games. The offense, which was expected to be a strength of this team, simply isn't delivering.

Amongst American League teams, the Red Sox are 10th in home runs, 9th in runs, 8th in batting, 8th in slugging, 8th in total bases and have the fourth most strike outs.

It looks like a case of false advertising. This lineup was supposed to rake.

Only two Red Sox are batting at least .300 — Jed Lowrie and Adrian Gonzalez. Nine Red Sox are hitting .237 or under. That's simply stunning.

Kevin Youkilis leads the club with five homers. Only one Sox' player has at least 10 doubles (Gonzalez). Only one player (Gonzalez) has as many as 18 RBI.

With the offense misfiring to that degree, the pitching has to be almost perfect. But it isn't.

Amongst AL teams, Red Sox pitchers are 12th in wins, 11th in ERA, 11th in innings and have allowed the 5th most runs, 5th most homers and the 4th most walks.

There are problems aplenty.

Clay Buchholz has regressed and possesses a 4.81 ERA and 2-3 record. In six starts, Buchholz has lasted just 33.2 innings and is not making quality starts. Over those 33.2 innings, Buchholz has allowed a whopping 60 base-runners.

Though he has had some terrific performances and sports a respectable 4.33 ERA, Daisuke Matsuzaka has lasted just 26 innings over his five starts. Dice-K has allowed 37 base-runners in 27 innings (one in relief).

John Lackey has made six starts. Three of them have been lights out. However, in the other three he's given up more than six runs. In other words, at this point, Lackey only gives the Red Sox a quality start half the time. At $17 million per season, this is a guy who is paid like an ace and who was supposed to be the No. 2 starter this year.

There are leaks all over this ship, folks. The worry here is that this we'll still have these concerns at mid-season and that the Sox will be lucky to be a .500 ball club by that time.

Yes, there have been some bright spots.

David Ortiz has gotten off to a hot start with 4 homers, 16 RBI and a .284/..378/.450 line.

Adrian Gonzalez has been as good as advertised, as the preceding numbers attest. And there's every reason to believe that his power numbers will climb as the season progresses.

Jed Lowrie has been a great surprise, leading the Red Sox in both batting and slugging. His defense, however, leaves something to be desired.

Jon Lester looks like a beast, improving to 4-1 in his last start and lowering his ERA to 2.33. In that game, Lester struck out at least 10 batters (11) for the 15th time in his career. Given that he's traditionally been a slow starter, you have to wonder just how good he'll be this year.

Josh Beckett has returned to form, and is once again the dominant pitcher we've seen in the past. The assorted ailments that plagued him over the past year-and-a-half seem to be behind him now. The big righty sports an impressive 2.35 ERA and has allowed just 34 base-runners in 38.1 innings.

But that's it; those are the few signs of life. After that, it's a pretty big falloff. The most polite way to describe this team is 'disappointing'.

For well over a month, everyone in baseball — not just Red Sox fans — has been waiting for this team to turn it around and play up to its potential. The question now is, how much longer will we have to wait?

The concern is that we could be waiting until it's too late.

Want one ray of hope? As lackluster as they've been, the Sox entered today just five games out of first place and just five games separate all five AL East teams.

As I wrote recently, if the Red Sox ever find a way to put it all together and be the club they should be, the Yankees may come to regret the fact that they didn't bury the Red Sox at this point, leaving them far in the rearview mirror.

Red Sox Starters Leading Remarkable Surge

2011-04-24T13:42:00.000-07:00

Where's Dice-K?

When this season is looked back upon during the home stretch of September, the New York Yankees may rue the fact that they didn't bury the Red Sox in April, when they had the chance.

After all, this is a Red Sox team that famously (or infamously) started the season 0-6 and 2-10 before finally putting together a winning streak of at least three games.

In fact, the Red Sox were more than half way through April before they finally accomplished that.

By Sunday morning, the Red Sox had won seven of their last eight games. When the day began, the Red Sox stood at 9-11, tied for third place and a game out of second in the AL East.

That seemed improbable just a week ago.

The division-leading Yankees are 11-6 and hold just a 2.5 game lead over the 11-11 Tampa Rays.

With the Red Sox still two games under .500, it's easy to imagine them being eight or more games out of first place, rather than just 3.5 games out.

And that's just what the Yankees may come to regret; that they didn't create much greater distance between themselves and their arch rivals, a team with a host of offensive stars and a suddenly scorching pitching staff.

Without question, the sudden change in the Red Sox' fortunes is attributable to their red-hot rotation.

Red Sox starters have allowed just six earned runs in the last eight games, a span of 53.1 innings. In those eight games, the starters are 6-1 with a miniscule 1.01 earned run average.

Suddenly, every Sox starter looks like a Cy Young candidate.

Their mind-boggling performances have resulted in the team ERA dropping from 6.79 to 4.73 in those eight games.

How amazing has this stretch been?

Well, Red Sox pitchers have allowed 15 earned runs in the last 73 innings.

Even the frustrating and baffling Daisuke Matsuzaka is suddenly unhittable.

In his last two starts, Dice-K has thrown 15 innings, giving up no earned runs, two hits and four walks, while striking out 12.

Suddenly, the Japanese enigma looks like the ace the Red Sox thought they were getting back in November, 2006.

Matsuzaka said his last two starts were the best he's had in his five seasons with the Red Sox. But they weren't merely the best back-to-back starts he's had in the majors.

As ESPN's Karl Ravech noted, Matsuzaka's last two starts were among the two or three best back-to-back starts in Red Sox history.

Buster Olney reported that a scout says Dice-K has "made a transformation."

We can only hope that this is not merely an aberration. It's safe to say that most Sox fans will withhold judgment and are not entirely sold yet.

After his last start against Toronto, Dice-K said he was motivated by the fear of losing his spot in the rotation.

It's about time. But, hey, whatever it takes.

If the pitching holds up, you can only wonder how good this team will eventually be this season. That's because the offense has yet to really heat up.

Among AL teams, the Red Sox are 11th in batting, 11th in total bases, 9th in runs, 9th in homers and 9th in slugging.

Obviously, there is much room for improvement. And most reasonable observers expect those improvements to come sooner rather than later.

When that happens, the division race will become much more interesting and the Yankees may regret not running away with the division when they had the chance.

They probably won't get another chance this season like the one they had this month.

Surely, the Red Sox don't have another 0-6 or 2-10 stretch in them this year. Do they?

It's Mid-April and the Red Sox are Already Running Out of Time

2011-04-16T11:22:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox' Frustrations Are Starting To Show, As Evidenced By Kevin Youkilis

Remember when the Red Sox were going to win 100 games on their way to another World Series Championship?

That's looking increasingly unlikely rather suddenly.

When the Sox were swept in Texas on opening weekend, it could be chalked up to playing the defending AL Champs, on the road. Perhaps everyone's timing was off; the hitters and pitchers just weren't clicking yet. The Red Sox were outscored 26-11 in the series.

But then the Sox were immediately swept by the lowly Cleveland Indians. Yes, it was very cold in Cleveland. But that didn't seem to affect the Indians, who outscored the Red Sox 12-5 in the series.

The Red Sox seemed to need to get home quickly and desperately. Perhaps the familiar and comfortable confines of Fenway Park and the first series against their arch rivals, the New York Yankees, would spark the fire that would send the Sox on their way for the rest of the season.

The Sox took two out of three from the Yanks. However, they were once again outscored, 19-13.

Then the lowly 1-8 Tampa Rays came to Fenway, the only team with a worse record than the Sox. It seemed like the perfect opportunity for the Sox to get on a winning streak and improve their record.

That didn't happen.

Instead, the Rays won two in a row against the Sox, while the third and final game was rained out. Thank goodness. Yet again, the Red Sox were outscored, this time 19-7.

As today began, the Red Sox were 2-10, the worst record in baseball. And they may be the worst team in baseball as well.

There isn't much good about the Red Sox at this point. They've been outscored 79-46. They're batting .224, 12th in the AL. Their ERA is 6.79, by far the worst in the AL. In fact, it's the worst in baseball — by a full run.

Simply put, this team is a mess. Being eight games below .500 in mid-April is not something that anyone could have imagined. And it is already a hole so deep that the Sox may not be able to extricate themselves from it.

There are 150 games yet to play. In order to win 95 games this season, the Red Sox need to go 93-57 the rest of the way. That's a .620 winning percentage. From the beginning of the season, it would have been just a .586 winning percentage to get to 95 wins.

Perhaps that gives you an idea of just how difficult it's going to be for this team to win 95 games and/or make the playoffs.

I don't mean to sound alarmist, but the season may already be over for the Red Sox. The playoffs are, perhaps, an unrealistic dream.

If you're looking for good news, the Sox are just five games behind the division-leading Yankees, who are just 7-5.

However, as the Boston Globe's Tony Massarotti recently pointed out, the difference between a 97-win team and an 81-win team is a single victory in every 10 contests.

"You go 6-4 during that span, you win 97. You go 5-5, you win 81," wrote Massarotti. "The line between mediocrity and championship contention is not nearly as thick as many would like to believe."

The Red Sox had an Opening Day payroll approaching $164 million. There isn't much they can do to improve this team right now. There are many expensive, long-term contracts throughout the roster.

And under-achieving players are never easy to trade, especially when they've been under-achieving for more than a year (JD Drew, Dice-K, John Lackey, Josh Beckett).

Any sort of trade isn't very likely until at least June, when other teams will have figured out what their potential is, what their needs are, and what contracts they need to jettison. A call-up of a player like Ryan Kalish is more likely in the short-term.

Clearly, the Red Sox need to stir the pot and shake things up. And they need to find a solution quickly.

It's April 16th and, as difficult as it is to believe, the Red Sox are already running out of time.

Marco Scutaro Provides Talent, Grit, Value to Red Sox

2011-03-20T14:03:00.000-07:00

Throughout the winter, there was persistent talk that the Red Sox might shop Marco Scutaro. However, all that talk originated from outside the organization.

Some fans are pining for Jose Iglesias to take over as the Opening Day shortstop, despite the fact that the 21-year-old Cuban has never played a game above Double A.

But while the young phenom may be a fully developed fielder, he is still an unfinished product offensively and needs to continue his development at the minor league level.

And Jed Lowrie is the perfect utility man for the Sox. Possessing the unique ability to play all four infield positions, Lowrie will provide valuable rest to each of the infield starters and is the perfect insurance policy in case of injury.

Having Lowrie as his utility man will allow Terry Francona to take advantage of his potent bat a few games each week.

For a variety of reasons, Scutaro, who is entering the final year of his two-year deal, is the ideal shortstop for the Red Sox in 2011.

Given that he'll be making just $5 million this season (with a $6 million club option / $3 million player option / $1.5 million buyout for 2012), Scutaro is a steal.

But Scutaro is more than just affordable.

Last year, Scutaro led all Major League shortstops with 38 doubles, even though he played most of the season with a bum shoulder. The next closest shortstop had 33 doubles.

And among Major League shortstops, Scutaro was second with 632 at-bats, second with 174 hits and third with 92 runs. He was also sixth in total bases, sixth in walks, 10th in RBI, and 17th in strike outs.

By these measures, Scutaro was among the best shortstops in the game last season.

While some may believe that Scuatro had an off season in 2010, that just isn't so. Scutaro had a career-highs in hits (174), doubles (38) and total bases (245).

Despite a pinched nerve in his neck that affected his shoulder and caused him great pain, Scutaro posted numbers similar to those he put up in Toronto the previous year.

With the Jays in 2009, Scutaro hit .282 with 12 homers and 60 RBIs. With the Sox in 2010, he hit .275 with 11 homers and 56 RBIs.

However, Scutaro was more than just a solid offensive player in 2010.

Scutaro's .965 fielding percentage was 12th best in baseball among shortstops with at least 500 total chances. Most of his 18 errors were throwing errors, the product of that troubled shoulder. The inflammation in Scutaro's right rotator cuff got so bad that it forced his move from shortstop to second base for most of September.

All indications are that he is now fully recovered.

Former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi appreciates the 35-year-old shortstop's talent and grit.

"When he's healthy, he's one of the three best defensive shortstops in the league," said Ricciard last year. "He's one of the best shortstops, period. He's a guy that's going to be able to play at this level until he's 37 or 38. He works at it. He's a really smart player. He's a great baserunner. He keeps improving [his on-base percentage rose from .332 to .341 to .379 over the previous three seasons]. He grinds at-bats [he led all shortstops in pitches per at-bat in 2009]. He can do a lot of things."

The bottom line is that, considering what the Red Sox are paying him, Scutaro is a steal. And he's a gamer. The guy simply doesn't take days off.

Despite his painful and nagging injury, Scutaro played in 150 games last season. All he does is go out and play hard every day.

How tough is Scutaro? Put it this way; he's never been on the DL. Enough said.

In Scutaro, the Red Sox have the perfect bridge to Iglesias and they will be well-served with the nine-year veteran as their starting shortstop in 2011, and perhaps even 2012.

Last season, White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez won the Silver Slugger Award.

Ramirez, 29, hit .282 with 18 homers and 70 RBIs in 156 games. He led AL shortstops in average, slugging percentage (.431), homers and total bases (252), and he ranked second in RBIs.

For comparison's sake, Scutaro hit .275 with 11 homers and 56 RBI in 150 games. Scutaro also posted a .388 SLG.% and 245 total bases.

As you can see, the difference between the Silver Slugger winner and Scutaro wasn't that dramatic. And you have to wonder how much better Scutaro would have been if healthy.

This season, the Red Sox should find out.

Red Sox Have High Hopes For Ryan Kalish In 2012, And Beyond

2011-03-08T16:49:00.000-08:00

As an emergency call-up to a depleted Red Sox team last season, 22-year-old Ryan Kalish impressed just about everyone.

In 53 games, the highly-touted Kalish hit .252 with four home runs and 24 RBI.

Given more at-bats, that average will surely rise. And scouts believe Kalish has 20 home run power. The New Jersey native also exhibited great run-producing capability last September; at mid-month he had 14 RBIs in 12 games.

Kalish has a strong arm, which makes him an obvious candidate to replace JD Drew in right field next season. However, the talented young outfielder has the versatility to play all three outfield positions.

Though he doesn't possess blazing speed, Kalish is quick and possesses excellent instincts. This combination allows him to cover plenty of ground in center field, as he displayed last year playing in place of the injured Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron.

And guess who led the Red Sox in stolen bases last season? If you answered Ryan Kalish, you're right. Flashing quickness and an aggressive approach on the base paths, Kalish swiped 10 bases in just 53 games last year.

These varied skill-sets have many Red Sox observers looking forward to seeing Kalish in the outfield every day next season, after Drew's contract expires.

There's the hope that Kalish will develop into a star player, the likes of which haven't been seen in right field since Dwight Evans left town.

Here's the history of Red Sox right fielders in the post-Evans era:

1990-1992: Tom Brunansky
1993: Carlos Quintanna
1994: Billy Hatcher
1995-1997: Troy O'Leary (played outfield with Sox from '95-'01)
1998: Darren Bragg
1999-2006: Trot Nixon
2007-2011: JD Drew

None of these players was truly great.

Brunansky came to the Sox past his prime and is best remembered for his diving catch of an Ozzie Guillen liner in the ninth inning of the final game of the 1990 season, which sent the Sox to the ALCS.

Red Sox fans loved Nixon for his 'Dirt Dog' style of play. However, despite having three solid years in a row (2001-2003), Nixon never hit 30 homers or drove in 100 runs. And he scored 100 runs just once. Despite that, he was actually better — statistically, at least — than Drew.

Unfortunately, Drew has always been hamstrung by the five-year, $70 million contract he signed prior to the 2007 season.

However, you simply can't blame a guy for accepting the best offer available to him. Theo Epstein had a man-crush on Drew and doggedly pursued him. Ultimately. Epstein was bidding against only himself when he gave Drew the aforementioned contract. Yet, it's now abundantly clear that it was too much, and too long.

Drew has always been heralded for his OPS, a combination of on-base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage. However, OBP only matter matters if you score and slugging only matters if you drive in runs.

Drew does neither particularly well. During his four years with the Sox, Drew has never driven in, or scored, 100 runs. His best efforts were 68 and 84, respectively. That should explain why so many fans have always felt disenchanted by Drew.

Considering the past 20 years of history in right field at Fenway, it's easy to see why people are so excited about Kalish.

The homegrown talent offers the unique mix of multiple tools, youth, tenacity, and a full-tilt playing style that should endear him to Red Sox fans for years to come.

The notion of such a young player taking over right field next year, at just the age of 23 — and possibly holding down the position for a decade or more — is very exciting indeed.

Beckett & Lackey Key To Red Sox 2011 Aspirations

2011-03-02T19:11:00.000-08:00

After an offseason of major acquisitions, and the return of a group of star players from injury, the consensus view is that the Red Sox will field a potent offense this season.

And, on paper at least, the Sox bullpen has been upgraded with the additions of Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler and others.

Perhaps the most pressing question about the Red Sox as they enter this season is the strength of their rotation.

Going into last season, most observers viewed the Boston rotation as perhaps the best in the game. But Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka both suffered injuries and did not pitch well when seemingly healthy.

For his part, John Lackey came face-to-face with the relentless nature of AL East lineups.

As spring training unfolds, the big unanswered question is whether Beckett and Lackey, in particular, will have bounce-back seasons in 2011. Both are big, right-handed Texans, who under-performed in 2010.

But that's where last year's similarities end. Lackey doesn't need to bounce back so much as improve on 2010.

Lackey reported to spring training looking trimmer than last year, saying he dropped 11 pounds by doing an hour of cardio per day (20 minutes on a treadmill, 20 minutes on a bike and then 20 minutes on an elliptical trainer).

All that hard work reduced his girth from 252 pounds to 241, and hopefully that weight loss will benefit him this season.

Clearly, Lackey needed to make some changes after his first year in Boston was widely viewed as a disappointment.

The big right-hander sported a hefty 4.40 ERA, his highest since 2004. Lackey also allowed 233 hits and tied his career-high with 72 walks. That amounted to 305 base-runners and resulted in a 1.42 WHIP, the highest of his nine-year career.

Additionally, lefties hit Lackey particularly hard, going .298/.364/.438 against him.

On the upside, Lackey led the Red Sox with 33 starts and 21 quality starts last season. Consequently, the former Angel also led the Sox with 215 innings pitched.

Additionally, the Red Sox' newcomer posted a respectable 14-11 record last season. Just 14 American League pitchers won more games than Lackey in 2010. And his 14 wins were tied for second-highest of his career, behind the 19 victories he posted in 2007.

For comparison's sake, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Ervin Santana and Carl Pavano were the only other AL starters who posted at least 14 wins and 215 innings last season.

However, Lackey also had the benefit of the 11th-best run support in the AL. In fact, Lackey had six wins last season in which he did not make a quality start (at least six innings pitched, allowing three or fewer runs). That amounted to almost half of his wins in 2010.

The hope is that Lackey can build on the momentum he developed in the second half of last season, when his ERA fell to 3.97 and his WHIP to 1.22. Lackey also fanned more than eight batters per nine innings in his last 14 outings, while cutting down his walk rate significantly.

Beckett, on the other hand, is coming off an utter disaster in 2010. If Beckett had only pitched the way that Lackey did last year, his season wouldn't have been such an absolute failure.

Last year, by far the worst of his nine full seasons, Beckett made just 21 starts and pitched just 127.2 innings.

The results looked like this:

Record: 6-6
ERA: 5.78
Opponent Avg: .292
Strikeouts: 116
WHIP: 1.54
Quality starts: 10

Beckett's ERA and WHIP testify to how truly awful he was last year. But the fact that he made just 10 quality starts in 21 attempts also speaks volumes.

When Beckett joined the Red Sox before the 2006 season, he was viewed as an elite, front-of-the-rotation starter who would anchor the Red Sox rotation for years to come. Over his five seasons with the Marlins, Beckett had posted a 3.16 ERA.

However, over his five seasons in Boston, Beckett owns a 4.39 ERA. Even if you exclude his disastrous 2010 campaign, Beckett's ERA from 2006-2009 was still 4.04, hardly the stuff of an ace. Additionally, Beckett has yet to strike out 200 batters in any season in the majors.

To this point, there has been just one season in which Beckett has lived up to all the hype and performed like the stud the Red Sox thought they were getting when they traded Hanley Ramirez for him.

In 2007, Beckett went 20-7 with a 3.27 ERA, 194 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP.

Due to injuries and ineffectiveness, Beckett has reached 200 innings in just three of his five seasons with the Red Sox.

It's safe to assume that Beckett feels an awesome sense of responsibility to the team and wants to live up to the four-year, $68 million contract he signed last April. The big righty is viewed as a leader in the Red Sox clubhouse, particularly amongst Red Sox pitchers.

Yet, it's difficult to know what to expect from Beckett this season. He has alternated between good and disappointing seasons since arriving in Boston. It's been widely noted that he seems to pitch well only in odd years, which may be a good omen for 2011.

The Red Sox can only hope so, because they have hitched their wagon to Beckett, who will be critical to their success and post-season aspirations this year.

A Look At The Red Sox Top Prospects

2011-02-20T13:58:00.000-08:00

Shortstop Jose Iglesias is now listed as the Red Sox top prospect

When Theo Epstein became the Red Sox GM before the 2002 season, he repeatedly stated his intention to create a "scouting and player development machine".

"Our goal for player development and scouting is to develop a constant flow of impact talent through our farm system," Epstein reminded us prior to the 2003 season.

The Boston GM expressed his hope that the organization would develop "impact young talent for our major league club" because "talented young players are more likely to stay healthy and are more likely to improve than older players."

Epstein noted that grooming young talent is less expensive than having to fulfill needs through free agency. And, he said, developing minor league players into productive major leaguers also allows the club to direct its resources in the free agent market when and where needed.

Additionally, developing organizational depth also allows the club to address its needs internally when injuries occur. And it provides more flexibility in executing trades that will help the big league club.

During Epstein's tenure, the Red Sox have drafted and developed numerous players — such as Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia — into successful big leaguers.

What's more, the club has been able to swap minor leaguers — like Hanley Ramirez (SS), Casey Kelly (RHP) and Anthony Rizzo (1B) — for proven major league veterans Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Adrian Gonzalez.

Losing Kelly and Rizzo were blows to the Red Sox' minor league system, pulling two premier prospects from the organizational depth chart and out of the major league pipeline.

Given the departure of those two players (both now in the Padres' system), many wonder who among the remaining Red Sox prospects appear to be the next crop of rising stars, the next impact players on the Boston roster?

With that in mind, let's look at how some experts rank the current group of Red Sox prospects.

The Baseball America Prospects Handbook lists the top 10 Red Sox prospects as:

1. SS Jose Iglesias
2. RHP Anthony Ranaudo
3. LHP Drake Britton
4. OF Josh Reddick
5. LHP Felix Doubront
6. RHP Stolmy Pimentel
7. 3B Garin Cecchini
8. 1B Lars Anderson
9. 3B Kolbrin Vitek
10. 2B Oscar Tejada

Keith Law of ESPN has Iglesias (45), Ranaudo (54) and Britton (90) in his top 100. Law ranks the Boston farm system 11th in baseball.

At No. 42, Iglesias was the only Red Sox player on Jonathan Mayo’s list of the top 50 prospects on mlb.com. In the positional breakdown, Iglesias was No. 3 among shortstops, Tejada sixth among second basemen, and Anderson ninth among first basemen.

Now, a closer look at the Top 10:

At this point, most Sox fans are aware that Jose Iglesias is the Red Sox shortstop in waiting, the heir apparent to the spot presently manned by Marco Scutaro.

Iglesias is a slick fielder, but questions remain about his bat. The 21-year-old Cuban still needs time to develop his offense at the minor league level.

Anthony Ranaudo was drafted by the Red Sox last season. Coming out after his junior year, Ranaudo was viewed as one of the top pitchers in the draft and was expected to be an early draft pick.

However, Ranaudo missed five weeks of the season due to an elbow injury and his draft stock dropped. The Sox swooped in and claimed Ranaudo with the 39th pick in the supplemental draft last summer.

Soon after, the 6'7" righty dominated the Cape Cod League, posting a 3-0 record, pitching 29.2 scoreless innings, fanning 31 batters, and walking just eight.

Having the 21-year-old Ranaudo in the pipeline softened the blow of losing Kelly, as he projects to be a middle-of-the-rotation big league pitcher.

Drake Britton, a 21-year-old lefty, spent last season at High-A Greenville and posted a 2.97 ERA over 21 starts. In 75.2 innings, Britton struck out 78 and allowed just 69 hits.

Britton has a very high ceiling and a fastball that tops out at around 97 mph. A 23rd round pick in the 2007 draft, Britton had Tommy John surgery in October 2008, causing him to miss most of the 2009 season. As a result, he is at least a year behind in his development.

Josh Reddick, 24, is projected as a solid defensive outfielder with good range, a strong arm and the ability to hit for power. Reddick needs to develop better plate discipline and prove he can consistently hit big league pitching.

Felix Doubront, a 23-year-old lefty, projects as a starter but may first make an impact in the Red Sox bullpen. An opportunity could arise there as soon as this season. And should the Sox need a spot starter at any point, Doubront will be the first in line amongst the minor league candidates.

Stolmy Pimentel spent 2010 with Class High-A Salem. At 6'4" and 225 pounds, Pimentel is a big righty with a four-seam fastball that hits 92-95 mph, a two-seamer in the 87-89 mph range, a 12-6 curveball in the mid-70s and an above-average change-up.

Pimental is aggressive, works fast and has a strong mound presence. But he is just 21-years-old and still needs time to develop and progress through the system.

Garin Cecchini (19 years old) and Kolbrin Vitek (21) are both third basemen that were drafted last year in the fourth and first rounds, respectively. Both are highly regarded and project well at the big league level. But neither has yet to spend a full year in the minors. Vitek will start the season at Low-A Greenville.

A couple of years ago, Lars Anderson was projected as the next big, power-hitting first baseman for the Red Sox and seemed poised to become a fixture in the lineup for years to come. Then everything changed.

After a rapid ascent, Anderson suddenly went backwards. The big lefty impressed coaches and scouts by hitting .316 at Portland in 2008. However, he followed that by bating just .233 there the next year. And last season he started strong, batting .355 in Portland, but then hit just .262 upon promotion to Pawtucket.

Anderson has good power and a keen eye, but can be streaky and has shown a tendency to struggle for weeks at a time. At just 23-years-old, he is still young and has time to develop.

However, his path to the Red Sox appears blocked with Adrian Gonzalez now manning first base in Boston. Anderson could become a valuable trade chip if he continues his development.

At 21, Oscar Tejada possesses great athleticism and plenty of tools. A former shortstop who was moved to accommodate Iglesias, the second baseman has enormous potential but still needs lots of refinement. He played at High-A Salem last season and is still years away from the majors.

It's worth remembering that Ryan Kalish is still considered a prospect. He will likely continue his development at Pawtucket this season, where he will get plenty of at-bats. At this point, he projects as JD Drew's replacement in right field in 2012.

However, it would hardly be a surprise if the Red Sox move Carl Crawford to right in 2012, taking advantage of his incredible speed and range in the expansive right field of Fenway Park. That would put Kalish in the more easily played left field.

Other young prospects to keep an eye on are RHP Junichi Tazawa, 3B Will Middlebrooks, C Ryan Lavarnway, OF Bryce Brentz, RHP Brandon Workman, RHP Alex Wilson, RHP Kyle Weiland, RHP Jason Rice, OF Brandon Jacobs and 26-year-old Cuban outfielder Juan Carlos Linares, who tore it up in the Arizona Fall League.

And finally, one of the most amazing details is that Ryan Westmoreland, a five-tool player who was the Red Sox No. 1 ranked prospect at this time last year before undergoing brain surgery, is now listed at No. 30.

While that is a huge drop and may be perceived as a disappointment, the fact that Westmoreland was facing a life-threatening condition and is now back to baseball activities less than a year later is nothing short of amazing.

The gifted outfielder is still just 20-years-old and has a long road ahead of him. Most doctors and baseball insiders thought his career was done. But he is surprising everyone at present.

Westmoreland underwent surgery last March to remove enlarged blood vessels in his brain stem. Initially, it was hoped that he would simply lead a relatively normal life. But, at this point, the young man is exceeding all expectations.

Player development director Mike Hazen recently said there are no "hard line predictions on a time frame when he’s actually going to play in a game," and that "it’s still going to take a little while to get him back to where he was."

But that alone is simply stunning. It implies that Hazen sees a possibility that Westmoreland could actually return to his former high level.

"We’re seeing steady progress," said Hazen. "If you’re betting on any one person to get back and make it to that place, it’s him. You’d be amazed at the amount of drive. It’s inspiring is what it is. You just hope that he’s going to be able to take the field again one day because you know how bad he wants it.”

For various reasons, rankings often change from year-to-year, often even more quickly.

Prior to last season, Baseball America listed the Red Sox top 10 prospects as:

1. Ryan Westmoreland, OF
2. Casey Kelly, RHP
3. Josh Reddick, OF
4. Lars Anderson, 1B
5. Ryan Kalish, OF
6. Junichi Tazawa, RHP
7. Reymond Fuentes, OF
8. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
9. Jose Iglesias, SS
10. Derrik Gibson, SS/2B

Of that group, Kelly, Fuentes and Rizzo are no longer with the organization, having been traded to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez. And Derek Gibson fell out of the Top 10, as did Westmoreland and Tazawa (Tommy John), who are both recovering form surgery.

At this time next year, injury, trade or a failure to live up to potential / expectations could make the Top 10 look very different once again. Remember when Michael Bowden was a rising star?

Hopefully, Theo Epstein's scouting and player-development machine will continue churning out players the caliber of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Papelbon, Buchholz and Lester.

2011 Preview: A Closer Look At The Red Sox Bullpen

2011-01-27T14:39:00.000-08:00

For the most part, there will be little drama and little suspense.

The Red Sox will enter spring training with virtual locks at almost every position — except the bullpen.

Beginning just 18 days from now, the battle of the lefty relievers will present the greatest level of competition and intrigue. Currently, the Red Sox have Andrew Miller, Rich Hill, Lenny DiNardo, and Hideki Okajima battling for just one spot.

Though the Sox want lefty Felix Doubront to be a starter and to begin the year in Pawtucket, if no one else steps up, he will be strongly considered for a spot in the pen.

And there is still the possibility of another free agent being added to the mix. The agent for lefty Joe Beimel says the Sox are one of five teams pursuing his client, and that a decision could come as soon as today.

Here's a look at the current crop of lefty candidates for the Red Sox:

The 30-year-old Hill has a devastating curveball, resulting in 358 strikeouts in 399.1 career innings. But he's had trouble locating in the past. Over parts of six major league seasons, including 84 appearances and 70 starts, Hill has a career 22-20 record and a 4.82 ERA.

After spending 2004-2006 with the Red Sox, the 31-year-old DiNardo is back with the team again. The lefty has a 5.36 ERA over six seasons and, consequently, was only granted a minor league deal by the club. Undoubtedly, he is a long shot. However, he does have Major League experience and may find a role in the pen at some point this season.

DiNardo had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow last August. It remains to be seen how that affects his ability to pitch or his mechanics. DiNardo was with the A's at the time, and Oakland director of player development Keith Lieppman described the lefty as having "a miraculously quick recovery."

The 35-year-old Okajima dealt with a dead arm and back problems throughout last season, his worst in four years with the Red Sox. But it was merely a continuation of a very troubling, longer term trend.

For four consecutive seasons, Okajima's ERA has steadily risen, more than doubling from 2.22 in 2007 to 4.50 last year. Of equal concern, over that same span, the soft-tossing lefty's WHIP has also risen continually, going from 0.97 in 2007, all the way to 1.72 in 2010. Lastly, Okajima's strikeout total has also dropped for three straight seasons.

"Hello, Boston? We have a problem."

The 6'7" Miller possesses a fastball that has been clocked at 100 mph. New pitching coach Curt Young recently worked with Miller at Boston College, which can only be a good thing. Miller has long had trouble with his command, but if that powerful fastball can be harnessed, the Sox may have found a diamond in the rough.

Young is working with Miller on refining his delivery and mechanics, which clearly got out of whack since leaving college. Miller was named Baseball America National Player of the Year, and won the Roger Clemens Award as the nation's top collegiate pitcher, in 2006.

That same year, Miller was the sixth pick in the draft and was rushed to the majors after just three weeks. He was given no time to develop and it showed; Miller posted a 5.84 ERA in 79 appearances over parts of five seasons. However, he is still just 25 years old.

With five years of service time, Miller is out of options. Yet, he accepted a minor league contract with the Red Sox, so he can start the season in the minors, if necessary.

However, once he joins the big league club, he must remain with the team. Miller would first need to pass through waivers before being allowed to go back to the minors.

If Miller doesn't make the team out of spring training, he will likely begin the season as a starter in Pawtucket and continue his development.

There will be plenty of competition for just one spot, and that will be one of the most interesting things to monitor in Fort Meyers when spring training opens on February 15th.

Currently, the bullpen looks like this: Jonathan Papelbon, closer; Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks, setup; Dan Wheeler, Matt Albers, and Scott Atchison, middle; Tim Wakefield, long relief/situational.

That's seven relievers right there, before the Sox have even determined who their lefty is. Given that the club will only break camp with seven relievers, an excess already exists in the reliever core, even before a much-needed lefty wins the final spot.

Something's got to give, and somebody's got to go. The Sox will undoubtedly carry a lefty, which makes it a good bet that either Albers or Atchison won't make the team out of spring training.

As they say, stay tuned...

For David Ortiz, 2011 Contract Now Looks Like Grand Larceny

2011-01-24T10:24:00.000-08:00

Some potential Hall of Famers have had a hard time finding work this winter, while others have had to settle for rather humbling deals.

The Twins signed 40-year-old DH Jim Thome to a one-year, $3 million deal. And Tampa came to terms with 38-year-old DH Manny Ramirez on a one-year deal for just $2 million.

Ramirez made $45 million over the past two seasons. That's quite a pay cut.

Thome had 25 homers and a 1.039 OPS over 340 plate appearances last season. Ramirez had a .298 average and an .870 OPS over 320 PAs.

The A's signed 36-year-old DH Hideki Matsui, to a one-year, $4.25 million deal.

Matsui batted .274 with 21 homers and 84 RBI for the Angels last season. Though not a HOF candidate, Matsui can still produce and the A's got him at an affordable price.

Meanwhile, 35-year-old free agent DH Vladimir Guerrero is still seeking a job.

Of the 11 players last season who hit at least .300, had 25 homers and 100 RBI, Guerrero had the fewest strikeouts (60). Yet no one wants him?

On the other hand, David Ortiz had an .899 OPS over 600 PAs last season, and received a one-year, $12.5 million extension from the Red Sox.

After two years of precipitous decline, the 35-year-old Ortiz brought his average back up to .270 in 2010, and led the team with 32 homers and 102 RBI.

Yet, given the recent developments in the DH market, it looks like Ortiz held a gun to the Red Sox and robbed them blind.

Remember those stories about him possibly being upset about having to take a one-year deal? That seems highly doubtful now. To the contrary, he must feel like one very lucky man.

From 2005-08, Ortiz had a strikeout percentage of 16.4 and a home run percentage of 6.2. However, over the last two seasons, Ortiz's strikeout percentage leapt to 22.6 percent, while his home run percentage dropped to 4.9 percent.

Ortiz struck out a career-high 145 times last season, eclipsing his previous career-high of 134, set in 2009. Setting career highs in strikeouts in back-to-back seasons, at his age, is an ominous sign.

Over his first five seasons in Boston, Ortiz batted .302. But those days are now long gone. Over the past three seasons, his batting average has dropped to just .257.

Without question, Ortiz is a player in decline and he will be grossly overpaid this season. He is probably worth $5 million per year at this point, but the Red Sox didn't want to deal with a malcontent in their clubhouse or on their bench this season.

If Ortiz has another year that mirrors the last, the Red Sox will feel satisfied with his high price tag. However, if he underperforms, they'll have to take solace in the fact that it's only a one-year deal.

Ortiz should feel grateful for his current pact. Never again will he merit a contract with such a high annual value. He will be lucky to make half his $12 million salary in 2012.

But the slugger's place in Red Sox history seems quite secure, another reason for him to feel content.

With 291 homers as a member of the Red Sox, this season Ortiz will join Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice and Dwight Evans as the only Red Sox players with 300 home runs. That's some pretty fine company.

And, with 932 RBI as a Red Sox, he could become just the sixth player to drive in 1,000 runs with the team (Yastrzemski, Williams, Rice, Evans and Doerr).

Additionally, with 349 career homers (as a member of the Twins and Red Sox), Ortiz has a reasonable shot at 400 for his career. He needs to average about 25 homers over the next two years to reach the mark, which is certainly possible.

Unlike his contemporaries at the DH spot, Ortiz didn't have to take a pay cut and resort to one-year deal with a new team this winter.

The pay cut will come in 2012, but hopefully it will be with Boston. If Ortiz performs up to par, that would be the best thing for both him and the Red Sox.

For Red Sox, June Draft Will Be Rich

2011-01-07T09:03:00.000-08:00

The Rangers signing of Adrian Beltre is good news for the Red Sox. The Sox will get Texas' first round pick in the June draft, No. 26 overall, as compensation for losing Beltre, plus a supplemental first rounder.

If Beltre had signed with the Angels or Athletics, whose first-round picks are protected, the return would have been only a supplemental first rounder and a second rounder.

The only way this could change is if the Rangers subsequently sign a more highly ranked Type A free agent than Beltre, such as closer Rafael Soriano. In that case, the Rangers' first-round pick would go to Tampa Bay. Texas has been rumored to be interested in Soriano this offseason.

However, Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports reports that the Rangers do not plan to pursue Soriano.

All of this has worked out quite nicely for the Red Sox. This is the last year that the draft will exist in its current form, and it is projected to be one of the best drafts in years. The 2012 draft is likely to have strict rules (like the NBA and NFL) to control salaries. So the 2011 draft will be especially valuable.

Under the current MLB agreement, there are no fixed rules to determine the financial slotting of draft picks; there are only parameters, which are often ignored. In the past, the Sox have selected hard-to-sign players after the first round by throwing large amounts of money at them. Smaller market teams cannot afford to do that.

So the Sox did quite well in stocking up on draft picks while they could. This will allow them to rebuild their farm system, which took a hit when the Sox traded three top prospects for Adrian Gonzalez.

Boston now has the No. 19 (from the Tigers for Victor Martinez) and No. 26 picks. Though they lost their own first-round selection (No. 24) to the Rays for signing Carl Crawford, the Red Sox will ultimately end up with six of the first 80 or so picks.

So, the Red Sox turned Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, three prospects and their own first round pick into Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and four draft picks. Beltre and Martinez would have cost them at least $27 million in 2011. Gonzalez and Crawford will get $26.3 million. That's a well-orchestrated offseason.

The Sox, publicly at least, expressed an interest in retaining Beltre. However, during the winter meetings, it was reported that that they would go no to more than four years, $52 million for him. That's a long way from the six years, $96 million he got from Texas (have the Rangers gone insane?).

The Sox will certainly miss Beltre. His 79 extra-base hits last season were the most ever by a Red Sox third baseman.

Over the last two seasons, the top four Red Sox OPS leaders were: Kevin Youkilis, .967 in 853 at-bats; Jason Bay, .921 in 531 at-bats; Adrian Beltre, .919 in 589 at-bats; and Victor Martinez, .865 in 704 at-bats.

The Red Sox are now without three of those four talented players. Yet, the acquisitions of Gonzalez and Crawford should compensate for the losses of Beltre and Martinez this offseason.

Ultimately, the Sox got younger and improved their prospects in a critical draft that is just five months away.

This offseason has gone about as well as anyone could have hoped. As a result of the moves made this winter, the Red Sox appear to have set themselves up to be contenders for years to come.

Red Sox Rotation Key To Success In 2011

2011-01-02T10:10:00.000-08:00

In order to be the World Series contenders that many people expect them to be this season, the Red Sox will need all five of their starters to pitch up to their potential.

Last season, Red Sox starting pitching was inconsistent, at best. Despite the rash of injuries, poor starting pitching—more than anything else—was the reason for the Sox' disappointing season.

In 2011, the Red Sox will return an intact rotation, comprised of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Daiuske Matsuzaka.

Without question, Lester and Buchholz have become the staff aces and are among the elite pitchers in the game. Both pitchers are only 26 years old, still improving, and should contend for the Cy Young this season.

Lester finished fourth in the AL Cy Young Award voting after going 19-9 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 225 strikeouts last season. He overcame a slow start (0-2, 8.44 ERA) and finished the season as arguably the best pitcher in the AL, posting a 19-7 record, 2.81 ERA and 9.89 strikeouts per nine innings.

For his part, Buchholz went 17-7 with a phenomenal 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

However, after that young, dynamic duo, the rest of the Sox' starters were huge disappointments. Beckett, Lackey and Matsuzaka combined for over $39 million dollars in salary and an unimpressive 4.84 ERA. For comparison's sake, the entire payrolls of the 2010 Pirates and Padres were the same as, or less than, what the Boston trio made.

Beckett and Matsuzaka fell prey to injuries and never found the form that had made them successful in the past. Lackey was hardly the pitcher the Red Sox were expecting when they signed him last winter and had a lackluster first season in Boston.

Beckett posted a career high 5.78 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Over the previous three years with the Red Sox, he was 49-23 with a 3.71 ERA and sub 1.20 WHIP.

Lackey posted a 4.40 ERA, the first time his average exceeded 4.00 since 2004. And his 1.42 WHIP was tied for the highest of his career (2003).

Matsuzaka went 9-6 with a 4.69 ERA. Though he had moments of brilliance (like his one-hitter against the Phillies in May), they were far too infrequent and he typically looked like a shadow of the pitcher who went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2008.

Though the Red Sox let Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre walk, two of their premier hitters in 2010, the offense should be at least as good (if not better) with the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. But after scoring 818 runs last season (good enough for second in the AL), offense was not the Red Sox shortcoming.

And the additions of Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler, should improve the Red Sox bullpen markedly this season.

For the Red Sox to win the AL Pennant, and ultimately the World Series, all five of their starters must stay healthy and pitch their absolute best in 2011. All of the starters need to consistently make quality starts and go deep into games, taking pressure off the bullpen.

As we saw last season, the Red Sox cannot get by on offense alone. Amongst AL teams, the Red Sox were first in total bases, second in homers, second in runs, second in slugging and third in on-base percentage.

Yet, the Red Sox won just 89 games and missed the playoffs. It was just the second time since 2002 that the Sox failed to win 90 games, and just the second in 13 seasons that they failed to finish in first or second place in the AL East.

All that offense in 2010 couldn't overcome the disappointing efforts of three-fifths of the rotation.

Red Sox starting pitching allowed 517 runs in 2010, fifth worst in the AL. Their 1.35 WHIP was also fifth worst in the AL. Additionally, Red Sox starters allowed a league-high 383 walks, well above the league average of 330, and hit the most batters in the league (45).

The upside is that Sox starters struck out a league-high 833 batters, held opposing batters to a .254 average (fourth-best in the AL), and gave up just 89 home runs, lowest in the league.

Unless the rotation repeats the latter statistics and not the former, the Red Sox new lineup and bullpen won't matter much.

On paper, at least, the Red Sox appear to be the team to beat in 2011. But now they actually have to go out, play the games, and win. There are always surprises. Who picked the Giants to be World Series Champions at this time last year?

It's long been said that pitching wins championships. Without it, the Red Sox may be just another in a long list of overpaid, underachieving teams through baseball history.

Red Sox Acquisition of Dan Wheeler Should Complete Pen

2010-12-19T10:07:00.000-08:00

As difficult as it is to believe, last season Red Sox relievers pitched among the fewest innings in the American League. Even though Sox' starters went deep into games, the bullpen was still overmatched far too often.

So, the Sox' relievers' troubles cannot be blamed on being overworked. The relatively light workload should have been a benefit, and yet it wasn't. That's why Theo Epstein was so determined so rectify those bullpen issues entering this offseason.

In signing former Rays' reliever Dan Wheeler, the reworking of the Sox' bullpen seems to be complete. The Sox operated with caution, only giving Wheeler a one-year deal, not the three-year pact that other set-up men have gotten this offseason.

Though Wheeler ended up with an option that vests in 2012 if he makes 65 appearances next season, the Sox have to be satisfied. If Wheeler is pitching consistently, obviously it will indicate he's having success.

The fact that Wheeler's workload has declined in each of the last three years (70, 69 and 64 appearances) has to be viewed positively. Hopefully, it means he’ll have a fresh arm in 2011.

Wheeler struck out 8.6 batters per nine innings last season, a fantastic rate. And his WHIP was a lowly 1.075. Yet, in the two previous years it was an even better 0.995 and 0.87, which are simply outstanding numbers. That means less than one batter per inning, on average, reached base when Wheeler pitched.

Apparently, the Sox still have an offer out to Brain Fuentes. However, the lefty wants a multi-year deal as a closer.

At present, the Sox have lefties Rich Hill and Andrew Miller on their roster, both of whom will be given an opportunity to earn a spot in the pen.

Regardless, the Sox may do all right against lefties as presently constructed.

Last season, Jenks held lefthanded batters to a .648 OPS; for his career, the number is .617. Bard, meanwhile, ranked second in the American League among all qualifying righthanders by holding lefthanded batters to just a .462 OPS. And during his career, Papelbon has been one of the most consistent relievers in baseball against lefthanders, holding them to a .585 OPS.

Red Sox fans have to feel good about this bullpen going into 2011. On paper, at least, it is a marked improvement over last year's relief squad.

Red Sox Bullpen Being Remade In Rapid Order

2010-12-17T08:28:00.000-08:00

The Red Sox may have shored up their bullpen Thursday with the addition of former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks.

Jenks had a career-high 4.44 ERA last season, but he had 27 saves and struck out 61 batters in 52.2 innings, a phenomenal strikeout ratio. Jenks' fastball has been clocked at over 100 mph. That's a serious power pitcher.

Both Jonathan Papelbon and Jenks will be 30 next season. According to Buster Olney, Jenks will be given a chance to compete for the position of closer when Papelbon is eligible for free agency after next season.

The pressure will be on Papelbon with both Jenks and Daniel Bard waiting behind him. The presence of two possible successors may bring out the best in the Sox longtime closer.

Over six seasons with the White Sox, Jenks was 14-18 with a 3.40 ERA and 334 strikeouts in 341.2 innings. He had 173 saves in those six seasons, ranking second in franchise history.

Jenks had back-to-back 40-save seasons for the White Sox in 2006 and 2007, but posted career lows in saves (27), innings (52 2/3) and ERA (4.44) last season.

The upside is that Jenks averaged 10.4 strikeouts per 9 innings in 2010, his highest ratio since his rookie season (11.4).

In rapid succession, the Sox have added old friend Lenny DiNardo, Matt Albers, Rich Hill and Andrew Miller, whom the club traded for last month and then abruptly non-tendered.

DiNardo was with the Red Sox from 2004-06, going 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA in 43 appearances as a reliever and spot starter. The lefty has a 5.36 ERA over six seasons. Given his ERA, it's no wonder the Sox only signed him to a minor league deal. He may never see Fenway again, unless he's sitting in the stands.

The 27-year-old Albers is a bit of a project. The righty was 5-3 with a 4.52 ERA in 62 games for the Orioles in 2010, striking out 49 and walking 34 in 75 2/3 innings. The combination of the poor ERA and the high walk-per-strikeout ratio make Albers a bit of a long shot to make the team out of spring training.

Over parts of the last five seasons in the majors, mostly as a reliever, Albers has a 5.11 ERA. And his career strikeout numbers (5.8 per nine innings) are fairly unimpressive as well.

Albers' strength is his career 1.05 groundball-to-flyball rate, which is roughly 33 percent better than league average. In 2010, that jumped to a 1.33 groundball-to-flyball ratio, the sixth-highest mark in the AL (min. 50 innings).

The Sox also re-signed Milton native Rich Hill, granting him another minor league contact. The 30-year-old veteran has a career 22-20 record and 4.82 ERA in 84 career appearances (70 starts), spanning parts of six major league seasons. The lefty has posted 358 strikeouts in 399.1 innings.

After trading Dustin Richardson for Miller in November, the Sox chose not to offer the 6'7" lefty a contract, making him a free agent. The 25-year-old was rushed to the majors by Florida, making his big league debut just three weeks after being drafted.

Though Miller needed time for more development in the minors, he was out of options. Had the Sox tendered him, it would have mandated an assignment to the big league team. Considering his 5.84 ERA in 79 appearances over parts of five seasons, that was not a given in Boston.

By non-tendering Miller, the Red Sox were able to give him a minor league contract and avoid arbitration, which might have meant a raise on the $1.8 million he made last season with the Marlins.

Miller will get an invitation to big league camp and the opportunity to compete for a spot in the Red Sox' bullpen.

The Sox pen is now composed of righties Papelbon, Bard, Jenks, Scott Atchison, and Tim Wakefield, plus lefties Miller and Felix Dubront. Additionally, righties Hill, Albers, Matt Fox, Michael Bowden and Robert Coello are also in the mix.

Aside from Jenks, the one thing all of the new additions have in common is that they do not have strong track records or histories of great success at the major league level. That's a problem that could come back to haunt the Red Sox next season. And even Jenks has declined in recent years.

The Red Sox bullpen still seems to be one piece away from completion. The club may yet seek a proven lefty specialist, like Brian Fuentes, before they can consider this work in progress to be completed. At this point, the reconstruction of the bullpen still appears to be a work in progress.

However, the addition of all the new faces, plus the absence of Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen, will certainly give the Red Sox pen a very different look next season.

That's a good start. It seems they're almost there.

Despite Major Offseason Moves, Red Sox Toughest Task Is Rebuilding Bullpen

2010-12-15T11:56:00.000-08:00

After the way that the Red Sox' season unceremoniously ended, it was a safe bet that management felt determined to improve the team this offseason.

For just the second time since 2002 (aka the John Henry era), the Red Sox failed to win at least 90 games.

As a result, for just the second time in 13 seasons, the Red Sox did not finish in first or second place in the American League East. Playing in a city that now has much greater expectations (as a result of two World Series Championships in the last decade), that simply wouldn't suffice.

So, this offseason was sure to be a time of big, critical decisions for the Red Sox front office.

The team seemed poised to lose a couple of their better hitters in Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, leaving the prospect that Theo Epstein and Co. might have to rebuild the offense.

Though the Red Sox scored 818 runs in 2010, which was good enough for second in the AL, it was the fewest runs they'd scored since 2001.

But beyond that, some of the Red Sox' hard-earned luster seemed to have been lost in 2010.

For the first time in eight years, the Red Sox didn't lead the majors in local TV ratings. According to FoxSports.com, the Sox finished tied for fifth, behind the Cardinals, Twins, Phillies, Reds and tied with the Rays.

The Sox' ratings on NESN fell 36.6 percent from '09 to '10. Only one team, the Cubs, had a larger percentage dropoff on local cable. The Cubs, though, had a less severe decline than the Sox in their 70 over-the-air network games.

All of those problems were likely solved in a remarkable 72-hour period when the Red Sox traded for 28-year-old first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, and then signed 29-year-old free agent left fielder Carl Crawford.

The newly constructed Red Sox will be an offensive juggernaut, capable of producing runs in abundance. They now have a couple of guys (Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury) that can score from first. And if Josh Beckett and John Lackey bounce back to form, the Red Sox are now the odds on favorite to win the AL Pennant.

Over seven seasons with the Rangers and Padres, Gonzalez hit .284 and averaged 32 home runs and 99 RBI. He is a three-time All-Star who, in five full-time seasons with San Diego, has 161 homers and 501 RBIs.

Simply put, Gonzalez is one of very best hitters in the game, with a left-handed swing that seems tailor-made for Fenway. Given the combination of the shallower right field fence next season, plus his ability to hit the other way, Gonzalez should absolutely rake in Boston. Additionally, Gonzalez is a two-time Gold Glove winner.

Crawford is a four-time All-Star who brings an intriguing combination of speed, power, and Gold Glove defense. He is one of only two players in Major League history (Rogers Hornsby) to raise his average and home run totals in five consecutive seasons (2002-2006).

The left fielder hit .307 with 19 home runs, 90 RBIs, 13 triples, and 47 stolen bases last season and is the youngest player in history to amass 100 homers, 400 steals, and 100 triples. The 2010 season was a career-year for Crawford, and he is just now entering his prime.

With two bold moves, the Red Sox simultaneously got younger and better defensively. And they—presumably—now have both players secured for the long term.

Theo Epstein summed up the Red Sox offseason additions succinctly: “Adding players the caliber of Gonzalez and Crawford, who are 28 and 29 years old, respectively, and having them through their prime years makes a ton of sense for us. We’re not going to apologize for it.’’

But offense was not the Red Sox problem in 2010. The team lost substantial portions of its lineup (Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, Kevn Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Cameron) for long stretches of the season and still managed to win 89 games.

More than anything else, the Red Sox' bullpen was their key weakness last season. The team lost far too many games in the late innings due to bullpen implosions.

The Red Sox were 22-26 in games decided by one run, and 6-12 in extra inning games. If not for the pen, the Sox' season might have been very different.

The Sox finished 12th out of 14 AL teams in relief ERA, at 4.24. Only the Orioles and Royals had higher relief ERAs. The Sox were next-to-last in blown saves, with 22. And they also were 13th in save percentage, at 67 percent.

It's worth noting that the top four teams in relief ERA (Rays - 3.33; Rangers - 3.38; Yankees - 3.47; and Twins - 3.49) all made the playoffs.

The bullpen is an area that the Red Sox need to rebuild on an almost annual basis, which says a lot about the inconsistency of relief pitchers in general. Middle relievers are the worst of the lot; they are neither good enough to start, nor good enough to close.

The majority of relievers are journeymen who lack consistency from month-to-month, much less year-to-year. But without a solid, reliable bullpen, no team makes it to the playoffs, much less the World Series.

That is the reality facing Theo Epstein and his minions.

The Red Sox currently have Jonathan Papelbon as their closer, who had 7 losses and 8 blown saves last season, both career highs. Papelbon's 8 blown saves lead the AL and his 3.90 ERA more than doubled from 2009.

Papelbon's primary set-up man will once again be Daniel Bard, and Tim Wakefield projects to be the long-reliever and occasional spot-starter. The Red Sox need a lefty out of the pen and, at this point, young Felix Dubront may assume that role.

That leaves three open spots, assuming the Sox go with a 12-man staff again. Look for two of those spots to be filled by trade or free agency and the final opening to be won in a battle among assorted journeymen and in-house candidates, such as Scott Atchison, Michael Bowden, Robert Coello, Matt Fox, Rich Hill, and the newly acquired Matt Albers.

The Red Sox also are at least pondering bringing back lefty Hideki Okajima, plus lefty Andrew Miller and righty Taylor Buchholz, the later two of whom the Sox recently acquired and then curiously chose to non-tender.

The Red Sox have feelers, and in some case offers, out to a number of lefties, such as Brian Fuentes, Ron Mahay, Arthur Rhodes, and Pedro Feliciano.

Though Scott Downs, Joaquin Benoit and Matt Guerrier recently signed three-year deals with the Angels, Tigers and Dodgers respectively, it is unlikely that the Red Sox will go to that length with any reliever—unless he is one of the best in the game. But those types tend to be closers, and the Sox are set in that department through 2011.

As GM, Theo Epstein has given only one three-year deal to a reliever — closer Keith Foulke, following the 2003 season. Foulke had one very good season, in which he helped the Sox win the 2004 World Series. However, in 2005 and 2006 Foulke missed substantial time due to injuries, performed poorly, and ultimately lost his job to Papelbon.

However, the Sox have signed relievers to two-year deals that included vesting options. Both Alan Embree and Julian Tavarez were signed to such deals. Embree made enough appearances for his option to vest. Tavarez did not, but he had his option picked up after emerging as a valuable swingman in 2006 and 2007. Yet, both pitchers ended up being designated for assignment in the third year of their deals.

So it's easy to understand Epstein's reluctance to get involved in long-term deals with relief pitchers that are inherently unreliable. There's a reason these guys float from team to team, year after year. They often provide little relief and lots of headaches.

Ultimately, building a consistent, dependable bullpen may prove to be Theo Epstein's greatest offseason task, despite his rather bold and splashy moves to this point.

Injuries aside, the pen was the Sox' Achilles Heel in 2010, and they can't let this deep roster, loaded with talent, go to waste with a bullpen that once again melts down under pressure, like it did last year.

Jason Varitek Signing Gives Red Sox Flexibility For Bigger Moves

2010-12-02T17:10:00.000-08:00

Jason Varitek will be back for his 15th season with the Red Sox in 2011, after agreeing to a one-year, $2 million contract that includes $300,000 in incentives based on playing time.

Varitek got off to a hot start over the first two months of last season, with seven homers and a 1.024 OPS. However, he hit just .163 after that great start and missed substantial time due to a foot injury.

The veteran catcher was on the DL from July 2 through September 6, and was limited to just 39 games. He finished the season batting .232, with seven homers and 16 RBIs.

Despite turning 39 in April, Varitek is still an able back-up and the ideal mentor to 25-year-old Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Simply put, he is the right man for the job.

Clearly Saltalamacchia agrees. After hearing the news, the young catcher texted, "That's great. Thrilled he's coming back.''

Varitek was named Red Sox captain after the 2004 season. He was granted that distinction because of his leadership skills, his unmatched preparation, and the respect that his teammates—and even opposing players—have for him.

Among active catchers, Varitek ranks third in home runs (182), third in walks (593) fourth in RBI (721), fourth in doubles (296), fourth in extra-base hits (491), fourth in runs (632), fourth in total bases (2,126) and sixth in hits (1,258).

Both Varitek and Saltalamacchia are switch-hitters and should create an effective platoon. Varitek's career line against lefties is .279/.359/.471 and Saltalamacchia's career line against righthanders is .273/.343/.422. If they reach those averages in 2011, the Red Sox will get well above league-average production compared to other catchers.

And, by paying Varitek just $2 million and Saltalamacchia just $750,000 next season, the Sox have a lot more money for some combination of Adrian Beltre/Carl Crawford/ Jayson Werth.

The Red Sox will clearly spend money this offseason, as they always do. They just want to spend it wisely and in the areas of greatest need, with an eye on the prospects who may be ready to assume a big league role in the next two, or so, years.

Since John Henry and Co. purchased the club in 2002, the Sox have been number two in payroll expenditures, spending $1.145 billion. That's second only to the Yankees, who have outspent the Red Sox by 46.6 percent, at $1.679 billion (thanks to Peter Abraham over at Boston.com for doing that research).

The Red Sox will no longer be paying Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez and even Julio Lugo in 2011. So they have the resources to re-sign Adrian Beltre and add either Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth, in addition.

Bringing back Jason Varitek at such a team-friendly price, and pairing him with Saltalamacchia—who isn't even arbitration eligible—frees up plenty of resources for the Red Sox to make a much bigger long-term impact for their ball club.

As always, Theo Epstein has his eyes not only on next season, but the next few seasons.

Marco Scutaro Is A Bargain The Red Sox Should Hold Onto

2010-11-30T19:07:00.000-08:00

There is persistent talk this offseason that the Red Sox may shop Marco Scutaro and that, at the least, they will receive inquiries from teams in need of a shortstop. The Giants, Padres, Orioles and the Pirates all fit that description.

Scutaro would be very affordable for any team, and he has only one year remaining on his current deal. He will make just $5 million next season, and there is a $6 million club option/$3 million player option, with a $1.5 million buyout, for 2012. That makes him a steal.

And he's more than just affordable.

Scutaro led all Major League shortstops with 38 doubles, even though he played most the season with a bum shoulder. The next closest shortstop had 33 doubles. And among Major League shortstops, Scutaro was second with 632 at-bats, second with 174 hits and third with 92 runs. He was also sixth in total bases, sixth in walks, 10th in RBI, and 17th in strike outs.

By these measures, Scutaro was among the best shortstops in all of baseball last season.

Scutaro's .965 fielding percentage was 12th best in baseball among shortstops with at least 500 total chances. Most of his 18 errors were throwing errors, the product of that troubled shoulder. The inflammation in Scutaro's right rotator cuff got so bad that it forced his move from shortstop to second base for most of September. All indications are that he will be healthier next season.

The bottom line is that Scutaro is a steal at what the Red Sox are paying him, and he is a gamer. The guy doesn't take days off; he just goes out and plays hard. He is the perfect bridge to either Jose Iglesias or Yamaico Navarro.

The Red Sox will be well-served to have Marco Scutaro as their shortstop in 2011, and perhaps even 2012.

Remove Dodgers From List of Potential Daisuke Matsuzaka Suitors

2010-11-28T18:07:00.000-08:00

Earlier this offseason, there had been speculation that the Dodgers may have interest in trading for Daisuke Matsuzaka, and that the Red Sox would be even more interested in obtaining Dodgers' outfielders Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier.

Such a scenario seems to have been all but eliminated this week as the Dodgers reached an agreement with free agent Jon Garland.

The right-hander will join Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly to round out the Dodgers rotation.

Los Angeles came to terms with Garland on a very affordable $5 million, one-year, incentive-laden contract, which includes a club option that could be worth $16 million over two seasons.

Meanwhile, Matsuzaka is owed $10 million in each of the next two seasons.

Considering the similarities between the two pitchers, the Dodgers seem to have gotten themselves a relative steal.

Garland went 14-12 with a 3.47 ERA in 200 innings for the Padres in 2010. Matsuzaka went 9-6 with a 4.69 ERA in 153.2 innings for the Red Sox.

It's worth noting that Matsuzaka pitched in the tougher AL East, facing deeper lineups that wear pitchers out. Meanwhile, Garland pitched in the weaker NL West, which is dominated by pitcher-friendly ballparks.

That said, Garland is an innings eater, something that Matsuzaka simply isn't.

Garland has pitched at least 190 innings every season since 2002, his first full year as a starter. That's a nine-year streak.

Matsuzaka, on the other hand, has pitched at least 190 innings just once during his four years in the majors (204.2 in 2007). His next best effort was 167.2 innings in 2008.

Garland has also posted double-digit win totals in every season since 2002. Matsuzaka has accomplished that in just two of his four seasons.

Looked at from those vantage points, the Dodgers made a much wiser move by signing Garland than trading for Matsuzaka. In addition to the cheaper cost, the Dodgers didn't need to surrender a player to obtain Garland, as they would have for Matsuzaka.

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, and any of their fans who have grown tired of waiting for Matsuzaka to live up to his much-heralded hype, one potential trade partner has been eliminated.

It's reasonable to assume that Matsuzaka would fare better in the National League, with its weaker lineups. And it's been speculated that Matsuzaka might be more inclined to waive his no-trade clause to a West Coast team. There is the assumption that he would like to be closer to his native Japan.

Yet, given the 5,500 miles between the West Coast and Japan (not to mention crossing multiple time-zones), Matsuzaka may be just as unlikely to get back to Japan during the season as he is in Boston.

The one exception might be the All Star break, which Matsuzaka is as likely to enjoy as most other players.

Matsuzaka was originally projected as a No. 1 or No. 2 starter for the Red Sox. The reality is that, if not traded, he will be the team's No. 5 starter going into the 2011 season. In all but one of his four seasons, Matsuzaka has posted an ERA of at least 4.40.

Matsuzaka has been an enigma, at times showing flashes of brilliance, while at others exhibiting a maddening futility. It is not uncommon for him to have thrown in excess of 100 pitches by the fifth inning. His lack of command often results in consistently deep counts and excessive walk totals.

That said, he may be the best No. 5 starter in baseball. Even at $10 million per season, the Red Sox can easily afford him for two more years.

However, if any team makes an attractive enough offer, the Red Sox will surely ask Matsuzaka if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause.

At this point, that just might be the best scenario for all parties.

Losing Martinez Saves Red Sox Money, Creates Big Hole In Lineup

2010-11-26T11:20:00.000-08:00

The Red Sox lost Victor Martinez to the Tigers because they were outbid by $8 million dollars over four years. That amounts to just $2 million per season.

While the Red Sox were willing to offer Martinez the four-year deal he wanted, they weren't willing to go to $50 million for him. But the Tigers were.

The Red Sox made two separate offers to Martinez; a three-year deal worth $36 million and a four-year deal worth $42 million.

Even though Martinez and his agents made it clear to the Red Sox on Monday night that he was prepared to accept another offer elsewhere, the Red Sox held their ground. In the end, Martinez accepted Detroit's four-year, $50 million offer.

Even the Orioles, who offered just $2 million less, outbid the Red Sox.

The Red Sox were unwilling to go to four years, $52 million with Johnny Damon, which ended up being a regrettable decision by Theo Epstein. They can only hope that their decision with Martinez doesn't end up being similarly regrettable in the next couple of years.

The Red Sox now have a gaping hole in the middle of the order that needs to be filled by opening day. Fortunately, that is more than four months away. There is time to find a suitable, or superior, replacement.

But one thing is for sure; the Red Sox won't get the same kind of production from their catcher next season, no matter who it is. Martinez is one of the two or three best offensive catchers in the game today, behind Joe Mauer, and along with Brian McCann.

Martinez is a career .300 hitter, which is especially impressive for a catcher. Excluding the 2008 season (in which he was injured), Martinez has averaged 18 homers and 83 RBI each year since he became a full-time player in 2004.

While those are nice numbers for a catcher, the RBI and home run totals are not particularly striking. In fact, Martinez has hit 25 homers just once and driven in 100 RBI just three times in his eight full seasons in the majors. As a first baseman or DH, those numbers would be rather pedestrian.

But Martinez's offense wasn't the Red Sox' primary concern. His age (32 next month) and defensive shortcomings were the things that gave them pause. Martinez threw out only 27 of 99 base-stealers last season.

And the Sox also had questions about Martinez's game-calling skills. Red Sox pitchers had a 4.28 earned run average throwing to Martinez. With other catchers, Sox pitchers had a 4.05 ERA. Additionally, opponents had a .738 OPS with Martinez behind the plate — just above the American League average — and a .706 OPS with other catchers.

The Red Sox felt that Martinez would only remain an effective catcher for perhaps the next two seasons and that he would then need to shift to first base or DH after that. While they felt he would be worth the price of a top-notch catcher for the first two years of the contract, they didn't feel he'd be worth $12.5 million per season beyond that.

However, it's interesting that the Sox are willing to pay David Ortiz (who can’t hit lefties) $12.5 million to DH when the going rate is $6 million — tops. They’ll also wind up paying Jonathan Papelbon nearly $12 million next season, despite his regression. And J.D. Drew will will continue to be wildly overpaid in 2011, making another $14 million.

Yet, the Red Sox deemed that Martinez — a switch-hitter who crushes left-handed pitching — was not worth $12.5 million per year for the next four years.

The money they've saved can be spent elsewhere to address other needs. While the Sox may go with an inexpensive platoon of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek behind the plate, they will need to make up for loss of Martinez's offense somehow. And should they also lose Adrian Beltre, there will then be two gaping holes in the lineup.

If Saltalamacchia ever delivers on the promise that so many scouts and talent evaluators have seen in him for so long, he will be quite a bargain for the Sox. His big body and swing make 18 homers and 83 RBI seem within reason. That would make up for the loss of Martinez for a whole lot less money.

The names Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Justin Upton and Adrian Gonzalez have all been mentioned as potential Red Sox targets. The reality is the the Red Sox may now need two of them — or two hitters of the same caliber — to maintain their high-powered offense.

Red Sox Let V-Mart Walk; Bigger Moves Must Be In Store

2010-11-23T09:45:00.000-08:00

The Red Sox certainly had their chances with Victor Martinez. It seemed that his heart was in Boston all along.

After the final game of last season, Martinez made it clear that he wanted to remain in Boston.

"It’s no question, eyes closed, come back to here. This is a place that I really want to be," said Martinez.

Yet, it seems that Martinez wanted to return to the Red Sox more than they wanted him back. Once again, as is customary, the Sox put a value on a player and refused to exceed it.

Instead, Martinez will play for the Tigers next year and beyond, after agreeing to a four-year, $50 million deal with Detroit earlier today.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that that the Red Sox offered Martinez either three years and $36 million, or four years and $42 million.

But Martinez wanted a four-year deal and apparently the Red Sox didn't want him under contract for that long. After all, they offered him a mere two-year deal during the 2010 season. In the end, it seems that long term security meant more to Martinez than anything else.

Reportedly, Martinez was offered four years and $48 million by the Orioles and three years and $48 million by the White Sox. It's odd that he took $12.5 million a year from Detroit and passed up $16 million a year from Chicago. If that's accurate, Martinez could have made more money by hitting free agency again (albeit for a lot less money) in three years instead of four.

Though $12.5 million per season seems like a reasonable sum for a catcher of Matinez's stature, the Red Sox seem to believe that Martinez won't remain a capable catcher for more than two years, or so. And the Red Sox never seem comfortable committing themselves to long term deals with players in their 30s.

As a catcher, Martinez is an outstanding hitter. But as a first baseman or DH, he is far closer to the league average and would be overpaid at $12.5 million a year.

Martinez, who turns 32 on Dec. 23, is a below-average runner and below-average catcher. No doubt, he's an outstanding hitter and teammate. But his numbers, if he were a full-time first baseman, would rank him only slightly ahead of say, free agent Adam LaRoche.

The Red Sox clearly saw this possibility developing when they made a trade with Texas in July for 25-year-old catcher Jarrod Saltalamachia. At a minimum, that move was an insurance policy against today's news.

It also seems to signal that the Sox feel comfortable going forward with Saltalamachia at catcher next season, perhaps bringing back Jason Varitek as his backup and mentor. Both players are switch hitters, but Saltalamacchia is better against righthanders and Varitek is far better against lefthanders.

The Red Sox decision not to re-sign Martinez frees up a lot of money to sign a couple of free agents. The Sox still have roughly $40 million to spend if they are to reach their payroll of last season, and last week Chairman Tom Werner said the club may in fact exceed that amount.

It's reasonable to assume the Sox will be aggressive in the free agent market and in other efforts to improve a team that missed the playoffs last season. The team's NESN ratings declined in 2010, and it seems necessary to instill some excitement in the fans this offseason.

It's a good bet that the Sox will make serious runs at Carl Crawford and Jason Werth, though they may not want to go to six and five years, respectively.

Once again, the Red Sox will place a value on each player and they will not go above it. They will not let emotion get in the way and they won't get into unwise bidding wars, especially when it comes to players in their 30s.

The current compensation system is a mess. Players often hit free agency in their 30s and expect to be paid for past performance. But most guys start slowing down in their mid-30s, just when their contracts are at their peak. The Red Sox are very wary of this.

Players should instead be paid according to current performance, starting in their rookie year. If you excel, you get paid. If you don't, you don't get paid. Older players shouldn't be getting paid in excess of younger players just because of past performance.

But, at least for the present, this is the system that the Red Sox and everyone else will have to live with. The Sox will work within the confines of this system and improve their team.

When it comes to the maneuverings of Theo Epstein, expect the unexpected. Something big may be in store. He clearly wants a young star who is entering his prime, and who the Sox can keep for the long term while he is most productive.

A big trade may be as likely as a free agent signing, and it may also come in addition to such a signing. Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Upton are the most obvious candidates, but Theo could surprise us all.

One way or the other, expect the Red Sox to make a splash and improve a team that did not finish in first or second place in the AL East for just the second time in 13 seasons.

Theo and the rest of the Red Sox front office are fully aware that that is not good enough in Boston. To the fans at least, it's simply unacceptable.

In Andrew Miller, Red Sox May Have Found Diamond In The Rough

2010-11-14T20:09:00.000-08:00

The Red Sox may have found a diamond in the rough in their acquisition of power pitcher Andrew Miller from the Marlins.

Miller was Detroit's first-round draft pick in the 2006 amateur draft, going to the Tigers with the sixth overall selection. He was so highly touted that he was chosen one pick ahead of Dodgers' rising star Clayton Kershaw and four picks ahead of the Giants' Tim Lincecum, a two-time Cy Young Award winner.

Miller, a 6-foot-7 lefty, was the National Collegiate Player of the Year at the University of North Carolina that year. However, he never found that kind of success at the professional level.

With almost no development time in the minors, Miller made his major league debut the very year he was drafted. Miller wasn't a late-season call up either; he was promoted to the big leagues just three weeks after inking a four-year, $5.4 million deal.

The projections for Miller were so good that the Marlins insisted that he be included as part of any package that Detroit put together for Miguel Cabrera in the winter of 2007.

But Miller became a major disappointment in Florida, going 10-20 with a 5.89 ERA.

The Marlins identified Miller's problem as a failure to repeat his delivery due to a tendency to throw across his body.

However, Daniel Bard, Miller's college teammate at UNC, said that the Marlins seem to have tinkered with Miller's delivery too much and that it had a negative effect on him.

"I think they just changed a lot of things and it kind of took away from the pitcher he was when he was drafted," said Bard. "He looks quite a bit different than his 2006, college version. It seems like [his delivery] had changed gradually ever since then."

Despite those issues, Bard thinks that Miller will turn out to be a good acquisition for the Red Sox.

"I think it will be good, change of scenery, good organization. I think it will be a positive thing for him," said Bard. "All the tools are still there. Nothing has changed."

The Red Sox starting rotation appears to be set. Even if the Sox trade Daisuke Matsuzaka, it is highly unlikely that Miller would be the answer. The would certainly look for a starter with much greater Major League success than Miller.

What is more likely is that Miller will be given a chance to earn a spot in the bullpen out of spring training. Given that the 25-year-old is out of options, both he and the Red Sox have a lot riding on this experiment. Miler would first have to clear options to be assigned to Triple A.

However, Miller has a four-pitch repertoire, including a four-seam fastball that has touched 99 mph, plus a 12-to-6 curve, a slider and a change-up. He's even said to be working on a cutter.

That assortment of pitches will make him an interesting, if not irresistible, project for new pitching coach Curt Young. As a reliever, all those pitches could make him tough on hitters — if his mechanics are refined and his delivery is consistent.

More than anything else, Miller may just need a confidence booster and the knowledge that he has the support of his pitching coach and the organization.

Miller was such a highly regarded prospect when the Tigers drafted him that the consensus was they had a future ace on their hands. It would hardly be surprising if Miller feels that he let a lot of people down, not the least of which is himself.

Being projected as a future superstar is quite a burden for any young player. The Red Sox will be happy if Miller simply becomes a successful, consistent power lefty out of the pen next season.

Red Sox Pick Up Ortiz's Option; Best For Player And Team

2010-11-07T10:12:00.000-08:00

The Red Sox chose to pick up David Ortiz's option because they want the iconic player back next season and they didn't want negotiations to get messy.

As a result, it is obvious that the Red Sox overpaid for a one-dimensional hitter who cannot play defense.

Ortiz wanted the security of a longer-term deal that would give him the comfort of playing out his days in Boston, a city he has come to embrace as much as it has embraced him.

Should he struggle again at the start of next season, or at any time time, Ortiz hoped not to deal with the constant pressure and scrutiny from the media and fans alike, and all the questions of whether he may finally be released.

The heft of his 2011 salary alone now makes that somewhat less likely.

But Theo Epstein knows that, despite his solid season in 2010, Ortiz is a player whose best years are now clearly behind him. The reality is that, on the open market, Ortiz would command a salary of about half what the Red Sox will pay him next year.

Yet, the Red Sox still overpaid. Epstein didn't want to be saddled with a longer term pact based on sentimentality or nostalgia. So the easiest, cleanest thing to do was to pick up the option. Perhaps the team will benefit from having a highly motivated Ortiz playing for another contract next year.

The good news is that Ortiz finished the 2010 season batting .270 (which he finally reached in the last game of the season), with 32 homers, 36 doubles, 102 RBI and a .529 slugging percentage.

On the other hand, Ortiz struck out 145 times in 2010, fourth most in the AL. It was also a career high for the Red Sox DH, breaking the previous high he had set in 2009.

Yes, Ortiz has whiffed an awful lot the last two years for a guy who was once a very good hitter, not just a slugger.

Strikeouts are an example of futility and are the worst kind of out. Since the ball isn't even put into play, it doesn't stand a chance of producing a hit or scoring a run, as in the case of a sacrifice or reaching on a fielder's choice.

Of even greater concern, Ortiz was positively inept against lefties last season, hitting only .222, notching just two of his 32 homers, and slugging a mere .324 in repeatedly futile at-bats.

Ortiz will be greatly disappointed to learn that he will often sit against lefties next season. Whether or not he expects it, he'd better learn to accept it. And the truth is, if Ortiz doesn't expect it, he is delusional.

Great players are always the last to accept their decline. They are always the last to realize that their skills are diminishing. They always think they can still make the big play, get the key hit, and come through in the clutch, just like they always used to.

The unfortunate thing for the Red Sox is that, at $12.5 million next season, Ortiz takes up too much salary space for them to go out and get another solidly capable right-handed hitter to complement him.

For that price, the Sox should have been able to employ a combination of left-handed and a right-handed hitters who could both DH and adequately field their positions.

Ortiz's defensive shortcomings are also a liability to the team, and his lack of ability in the field clearly limits manager Terry Francona's options.

But Ortiz still murders right-handed pitching, and the Sox hope that continues in 2011.

It should be a milestone season for the Sox' slugger. Already fifth in team history with 291 career homers, next season Ortiz will join the likes of Red Sox legends Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice and Dwight Evans in the 300-homer club.

What's more, Ortiz will begin 2011 with 932 RBI, and should become just the sixth player in team history to surpass 1,000 RBI.

Yes, the Red Sox overpaid Ortiz by picking up his option. But they wanted to avoid an ugly, protracted negotiation with him in which they would have to point out all of his shortcomings.

Nothing good comes from telling the greatest clutch hitter in team history that he has slipped considerably, even if it's true.

As much as anything, the Red Sox have accepted that they are indeed paying for past performance. Ortiz holds a special place in Red Sox history, and in the hearts of the fans. He is a two-time World Series winner with the Sox, and he is a leader both in the clubhouse and in the community.

Ortiz now has seven seasons with at least 25 home runs for the Red Sox. Only Jim Rice (7) and Ted Williams (14) have accomplished that feat. And Ortiz now has six 30-homer, 100-RBI seasons with the Red Sox.

Those six 30-homer seasons tie Ortiz with Manny Ramirez for second most in franchise history behind Ted Williams, who did in eight times. And only Williams (9) and Rice (8) had more 100-RBI seasons than Ortiz in Red Sox history.

The Sox determined that it is better to overpay Ortiz, keep him happy, satisfied, and upbeat, yet hungry and motivated for another contract in 2012. A disgruntled Ortiz would have been bad for team chemistry.

Over the past two seasons, the images of him moping back to the dugout after yet another strike out, and then sulking about it on the bench, were both sad and disappointing.

The Red Sox can only hope that there are more of the highs and fewer of the lows in 2011. And that will likely be the case as long as Ortiz plays against righties and sits against lefties.

Count on it.

Will the David Ortiz Era Soon End in Boston?

2010-08-08T13:10:00.000-07:00

David Ortiz struck out three more times yesterday, reminding us that he has truly become an all-or-nothing hitter.

Ortiz now has 109 whiffs in 340 at-bats this season, which means he's striking out a whopping 32% of the time. That's just staggering.

The Boston DH's strikeout total is third highest in the AL, behind Austin Jackson (114) and Carlos Pena (111). For the record, the latter two are both position players who make an impact defensively, at least mitigating some of the impact of their frequent strike outs.

However, Ortiz's 24 homers are fourth in the AL and tied for 10th best in baseball. And his 73 RBI are 10th in the AL and 16th in baseball.

The Red Sox have a big decision to make with Ortiz this winter. Do they pick up the $12.5 million option on his contract, which would pay him about twice what other DHs around the league are making? Or do they try to renegotiate the deal to two years at roughly the same price?

Would Ortiz even be willing to accept the same dollars for two years instead of one?

Despite his power resurgence, Ortiz is only hitting .259 this season, and just .209 against lefties. In previous years, he was considered a one dimensional player because he couldn't field. Now he's even more one-dimensional because he can only hit for power.

Ortiz has just 88 hits this season, putting him on track for less than 120 for the entire year. That's a paltry sum. During his peak years with the Red Sox (2004-2007), Ortiz averaged 174 hits a year.

Ortiz is an important figure in the Red Sox' success this decade. A member of two World Series winners, he has become the face of the franchise and is a truly beloved figure throughout New England.

In fact, Ortiz is one of the few players universally loved throughout baseball. Remember how his peers cheered for him during the Home Run Derby in Anaheim last month?

Ortiz is one of baseball's goodwill ambassadors. He is a smiling, lovable character that fans and players alike seem to gravitate toward and root for.

Without question, Big Papi's place in Red Sox history is secure; his 283 homers with the club are fifth best all time. If Ortiz returns to the team next season, he will join Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice and Dwight Evans as the only Red Sox players with 300 home runs. That's some pretty nice company.

And, with 903 RBI as a Red Sox, he could become just the sixth player to drive in 1,000 runs with the team (Yastrzemski, Williams, Rice, Evans and Doerr).

In addition, with 341 career homers (as a member of the Twins and Red Sox), Ortiz has an outside shot at 400 for his career. Assuming he hits 10 more this season (which is a conservative estimate), Ortiz would need to average about 25 homers over the next two years to reach the mark.

The question is whether he will get a chance to do it with the Red Sox.

A player like Adam Dunn may be a far more attractive alternative to the Red Sox. Since 2004, only Albert Pujols (279) has more homers than Dunn (272).

At 30-years of age, Dunn is younger than the 34-year-old Ortiz, and he is a better, more consistent run producer. Dunn also offers more versatility in that he can play first base and the corner outfield positions, though not particularly well. Right field at Fenway could be a disaster for the 6'6", 285 pound behemoth.

But Dunn has said he is willing to DH, and the Red Sox would presumably use him in that capacity the vast majority of the time. However, his versatility is a great asset.

Going forward, the best DH for the Red Sox is one that offers them the versatility of being able to field a position, as well as hit for power, drive in runs, and get on base. At this point, Ortiz doesn't adequately fulfill all of those objectives.

Indeed, Ortiz can still get draw a walk; his 61 free passes are fifth best in the AL and are tied for 11th in baseball. But, due to his declining average, Ortiz's on-base percentage has suffered in recent years.

In his first five seasons in Boston, Ortiz batted .302. But those days are now long gone. Over the past three seasons, Ortiz is batting just .254.

Defensive shortcomings aside, with his advancing age, declining batting average, and high strikeout totals, Oriz isn't the same player he was a few years ago when he among the game's most potent offensive forces.

As a result, free agency won't offer as many options as it once would have. There is no question that Ortiz is suited only for the American League.

For his part, the affable Red Sox star says he would like to finish his career with the club.

"I'm going to tell you, I ain't going nowhere,'' Ortiz said last month, in reference to his contract status.

Ortiz isn't just thinking about his option-year either; he says he wants an extension. However, if he intends to stay, it will be on the Red Sox terms.

The only question at this point is whether he's willing to play two seasons for essentially the price of one. The Red Sox will almost certainly decline his 2011 option and seek to renegotiate the base price down, perhaps seeking to fill it with performance incentives instead.

Will Ortiz's ego get in the way of such a decision?

There is no doubt that Ortiz is heavily invested in the local community, which could impact his decision. Aside from his numerous charitable works, he is a co-owner of the recently opened Big Papi's Grill in Framingham, MA.

We'll soon find out how much he wants to remain a member of the Red Sox, and if the team believes there are better alternatives available this offseason.

2010-08-03T11:33:00.000-07:00

Red Sox' Season May Have Already Ended

Weeks ago, most of Red Sox Nation seemed to give up on the idea that the Sox could overtake the Yankees and win the AL East. The conventional wisdom was that the team was now fighting to overtake the Rays for the wild card spot.

But things have recently changed.

In the last 10 games, the Yankees are 5-5, while the Rays have gone 9-1, tying New York for the AL East lead.

For their part, the Red Sox are 6-4 in the last 10 games. But they are just 8-9 since the All Star break, putting them 6 ½ in back of the Yankees and Rays for both the AL East title and the wild card.

It is increasingly looking like 95 wins won't be enough to get the Sox into the post-season this year. To win 100 games, they will need to go 40-16 the rest of the way, which includes 10 games against the Yankees, six against the Rays, and seven against the first-place White Sox.

I'm not here to say that's impossible, but it's fair to say it's highly unlikely.

The Red Sox are the walking wounded and look like a MASH unit. Last night, Eric Patterson, Ryan Kalish, and Daniel Nava played in the outfield. Who could have imagined that in April? Most fans had never even heard of any of them.

Jason Varitek, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury are all out. As customary, Terry Francona never knows when JD Drew will be hurt and unable to play.

Drew has played in 94 games so far this season. If he plays in the remaining 56 (an unlikely scenario), he will reach 150 games, or four more than he's ever played in any season of his 12-year career.

Francona is dealing with unpredictability on a nightly basis.

Darnell McDonald has played in more big league games this season than in his entire career with three previous clubs. And when the season started, who could have guessed that Bill Hall would have appeared in 76 games and have over 200 at-bats for the Sox? That's more than Varitek, Ellsbury, and Cameron; simply unpredictable.

The surprising Red Sox offense has suddenly cooled. In the 17 games since the break, the Sox have scored more than four runs just six times. And they have scored three or less seven times.

Increasingly, Red Sox starters have to be dominant, and go at least seven innings, for the team to win. The Sox' bullpen has been lamentable, to say the least, this season.

Yes, there are still waiver deals that can be completed in August, but it's likely that none of them will have significant impact. For better or worse, this is the team.

Yes, they will eventually see the returns of Varitek, Pedroia and perhaps even Ellsbury (don't hold your breath). But by then, it may be too little, too late.

To further add to the team's woes and misery, Kevin Youkilis was placed on the 15-day DL today due to a ruptured muscle in his right thumb. If the muscle fully tears, it would result a serious injury requiring surgery. Such an injury could potentially affect his career.

As it is, Youlilis' season, like that of the Red Sox, is in jeopardy.

In this decade, It's unusual to declare that the Red Sox season is over and lost in August But at this point, that seems to be the case.

One hundred wins is just wildly unrealistic.

Tim Wakefield May Have Made Final Start For Red Sox

2010-07-21T12:39:00.000-07:00

Watching Tim Wakefield pitch last night in Oakland, I couldn't help but think it might have been his final start with the Red Sox; not just this season, but ever.

With Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett returning to the rotation today and Friday, respectively, Wakefield will be the odd man out.

Though Wakefield was unhappy with his move to the bullpen earlier this season, given the way he's pitched this year, he can't rightly complain. The 43-year-old pitcher is just 3-8 in 16 starts this season, with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.

Considering Wakefield's age (he'll be 44 next month) and poor performance this year, it's entirely possible — if not likely — the Sox will decline to bring him back next season. If that is the case, Wakefield has had a fascinating and overachieving career.

After being released by the Pirates on April 20, 1995, Wakefield was signed by the Red Sox six days later. The knuckle-baller has been with the Sox ever since, becoming the team's longest-tenured player in the process. That longevity has advanced Wakefield in the Sox' record book.

Wakefield is the Red Sox career leader in starts and innings pitched, and he is second to Roger Clemens in strikeouts.

However, Wakefield is also the Red Sox career leader in many less desirable categories, such as hits allowed, runs, earned runs, walks, and hit batsman. And in each of those categories, Wakefield leads by a long shot.

Trailing Clemens by only 70 Ks, it is possible that Wakefield could overtake the former Red Sox star next season. And more importantly to Wakefield, his 178 Red Sox victories put him just 14 behind Clemens and the legendary Cy Young. It was Wakefield's intention to surpass the two most famous Red Sox hurlers by the end of next season.

But with just three wins in 16 starts this year, that is looking increasingly less likely. As much as the Red Sox might like to see Wakefield reach the strikeouts and wins milestones, they don't want to see him hanging on just to do so.

After pitching 108 innings this season — third most on the team — Wakefield has certainly had his chances. No one can reasonably argue otherwise.

If Wakefield were to have gotten within striking distance of the two records this season, brining him back next year would be a no-brainer. Loyalty aside, the PR and marketing opportunities alone would make it worth the Red Sox' while.

But with Wakefield pitching poorly and now headed back to the pen, his chances of surpassing Clemens and Young seem doubtful. And as much of a good soldier as Wakefield has been — a true leader both on and off the field — the Sox won't bring him back if they don't think he can give them a chance to win consistently.

Wakefield's knuckleball hasn't just frustrated opposing hitters; it's also frustrated a host of Red Sox catchers and managers. While Wakefield can often confuse and confound hitters, when he gets hit, he often gets hit hard. In addition, costly passed balls and wild pitches are to be expected.

Because Wakefield's primary pitch is so unpredictable, his starts are equally unpredictable. Each time he takes the mound, the results seem to be to a roll of the dice. Consistency has never been Wakefield's strong suit.

With all of this in mind, it's conceivable that we have finally seen the last start in Tim Wakefield's enduring career.

If it was indeed Wakefield's final start, it's quite fitting that it was such a mixed bag, which has defined his career.

Staked to a 4-0 lead in the second inning, Wakefield couldn't hold on, surrendering four runs in the bottom of the third. Wakefield loaded the bases on a double, a walk, and a hit batter. The runs then scored on a double, a passed ball, and a sacrifice fly. All of it was par for the course during a typical Wakefield outing.

But, as is also customary for Tim Wakefield, he then shut down Oakland over the next three innings, allowing no further runs. The mixed performance was vintage Wakefield.

If it was indeed his final start, all we can say is, Thanks for the memories, Tim. Thanks for all the effort. Thanks for being a man of such great character and integrity.

Lackluster Lackey Facing Must-Win Game

2010-07-17T12:22:00.000-07:00

John Lackey has been nothing less than a tremendous disappointment this season.

After signing for more than $82 million in the offseason, certainly a lot more was expected of him than he has provided.

In 18 starts, Lackey has given the Red Sox 118 innings, which is the good news.

However, Lackey has a 4.78 ERA and opponents are batting an astounding .298 against him.

Of equal concern, Lackey has given up far too many walks (46) and hasn't had nearly enough strike outs (68).

Lackey has surrendered 135 hits to along with those 46 walks, resulting in a whopping 181 base runners in his 118 innings. That amounts to a stunning 1.60 WHIP.

Folks, that ranks 107 out of 109 MLB pitchers — simply abysmal.

If batters don't reach base, they can't score. But in Lackey's case, they do both far too often.

The fact that Lackey has a 9-5 record is misleading. The Red Sox are 9-9 in the games he has started this season.

Yet, he plays for a team that has scored the most runs in baseball. Lackey, in particular, benefits from extraordinary run support each time he pitches. In fact, no other Red Sox pitcher has been so fortunate.

If Lackey were pitching like the guy the Red Sox thought they were getting, he might be undefeated with all that run support.

However, Lackey is 1-2, with a 5.61 ERA in his last three starts.

And Lackey's last outing, against the Blue Jays one week ago, was an unmitigated disaster: 4.2 innings, eight hits, seven runs (all earned), six walks, and two strike outs.

In those 4.2 innings, Lackey threw a highly inefficient 105 pitches — just 58 for strikes.

Lackey was advertised as a big time pitcher who would step up when it was his turn to take the mound. But so far, he looks like a no. 5 starter — not the purported ace we were all expecting.

With losses in seven of their last nine games, including two straight, today's game qualifies as a "must win" for Lackey and the Red Sox. In that sense, it really is time for Lackey to step up.

The Red Sox are 3.5 games out of the Wild Card, it is July 17, and the clock is ticking on their season. By the time all their regulars return, there is a danger that it won't even matter any more.

If there is such a thing as a "must win" game in July, this is it.

As Trade Deadline Approaches, Red Sox May Seek More In-House Solutions

2010-07-03T14:14:00.000-07:00

As the Red Sox approach the July 31, non-waiver trade deadline, they find their roster decimated by injuries.

With Manny Delcarmen and Jason Varitek joining the ranks of the wounded, the Red Sox now have 10 players on the disabled list — five since June 24.

Going into last night's game, Red Sox players had missed a total of 424 games to the DL this season. And yet the team just keeps on winning. The Red Sox are now just a half game out of first place, the closest they've been since the second game of the season.

In May, the playoffs seemed like a long shot and there was even speculation that the Red Sox could be uncustomary sellers at the deadline.

Clearly, that will not be the case.

The Red Sox may seek to make additions that will improve the team for the season's final 2-2 1/2 months. But soon after the All Start break, the club will benefit from the returns of Josh Beckett, Jeremy Hermida, and perhaps even Jacoby Ellsbury.

For what it's worth, Jed Lowrie (remember him?) will begin a rehab assignment on Monday in Lowell. He was supposed to be the Sox' utility infielder this season and may be ready before Dustin Pedroia. Lowrie is still just 26-years-old and quite talented. His wrist must be fully healed by now and his bout with mono behind him.

And after the deadline passes, the Red Sox should finally be able to field the starting lineup they had envisioned on Opening Day, seeing the returns of Pedroia, Varitek, Delcarmen and Victor Martinez.

As a result, it's unlikely management will make any desperate moves to fill roster spots.

Even with Mike Cameron playing at about 50% capacity, the team continues to win with the likes of minor leaguers Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava and Eric Patterson. In addition, journeyman Bill Hall has played a much larger role than anyone could have reasonably envisioned.

Incredibly, despite this unlikely cast of characters, the team hasn't just been holding its own, it's been gaining ground on the Yankees. As long as the Sox don't start to slide too far, too fast, the team will make-do primarily with what they've got.

The one area the Sox could conceivably seek to improve the team via trade is the bullpen, which is next to last in the AL with a 4.80 ERA and has allowed the most home runs (35).

However, a trade could be a dicey proposition. The club will be loathe to give up a formidable prospect for a short term solution in the pen. Anyone remember Larry Andersen for Jef Bagwell?

Trades for bullpen pitchers often regrettable; you usually end up overpaying. On top of that, middle relievers are notoriously unreliable and streaky. At best, you might get a journeyman who is in the midst of a good season. There's a reason these guys change teams all the time; inconsistency.

Ultimately, middle relievers are not good enough to start, and not god enough to close either.

That's why the Red Sox may go with in-house solutions, such as their own minor leaguers.

Robert Manuel has a 1.54 ERA at Pawtucket, and righthanders were hitting just .154 against him. In addition, his career WHIP is just 1.06 in the minors.

Once one of the most highly regarded pitchers in the organization, Michael Bowden seemed to regress, but has looked good this season. Bowden has a 3.77 ERA at Pawtucket, leading all starters with a 1.10 WHIP, and leading the team with 59 strike outs.

Dustin Richardson, already on the 25-man roster, could become the primary lefty out of the pen, instead of Hideki Okajima. The Japanese reliever has been in continual decline and his last four appearances have produced six runs on 10 hits over three innings. Opponents were 10 for 19 against him.

Lastly, Felix Dubront is another in-house candidate. In 26.2 innings at Pawtucket this season, the lefty has allowed just 22 hits while striking out 24. He's walked just nine batters, has a 1.16 WHIP to go along with a 2.36 ERA. Dubront made one start for the Red Sox this season, going five innings and allowing five runs on six hits.

Each of these pitchers represents a young arm that will not require a costly or regrettable trade. In a trade scenario, the Sox could end up essentially renting a bullpen arm for just two months, then losing the player to free agency at season's end.

Theo Epstein and co. have shown restraint thus far, trading only for old friend Kevin Cash. And that deal was consummated only because both catchers on the active roster went down with injuries. Minor League catchers Mark Wagner and Dusty Brown are both also on the DL.

It's as if the Red Sox have been struck by a plague.

July is the month when most trades are made. This is when clubs determine if they are buyers or sellers, based on their records and their playoff chances. Trades will heat up, but it isn't likely the Red Sox will be involved in any blockbusters.

Perhaps a veteran bullpen arm will be obtained, but not at the expense of a minor leaguer the Sox envision as part of their future.

The more likely scenario is that the team will give a shot to one of the young pitchers in their own system before making any moves they may come to regret later.

Relievers are a dicy lot. They can be costly gambles and major disappointments.

Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don't make at all.

Both Armando Galarraga and the Game of Baseball Deserve Better Than This

2010-06-03T16:20:00.000-07:00

By now, baseball fans across the nation have seen the video, and the photographic evidence. Armando Galarraga was robbed of a once in a lifetime opportunity – a perfect game. He was robbed of a very special place in the record books. And he was robbed before our eyes, for the whole world to see.

Umpire Jim Joyce admits he blew the call.

"I just cost that kid a perfect game," Joyce said after the game. "I thought he beat the throw. I was convinced he beat the throw, until I saw the replay."

"It was the biggest call of my career," said Joyce, with regret.

All of the Tigers were either stunned or outraged, except for Galarraga, who simply and quietly went back to work as the Detroit crowd booed angrily. Galarraga's manager, Jim Leyland, and his teammates gave Joyce an earful, letting their opinions be heard loud and clear.

"I don't blame them a bit or anything that was said," Joyce said. "I would've said it myself if I had been Galarraga. I would've been the first person in my face, and he never said a word to me."

That just proves that Galarraga is a class act. He deserves better than this. And Joyce's contrition doesn't change the fact that Galarraga will forever live with this unfortunate injustice.

Yet, it was entirely correctable. By the time of Joyce's miscall, 26 consecutive outs had been recorded. And on the play in question, it is abundantly clear that the 27 out was also recorded, without any hitter truly reaching base.

MLB and Commissioner Bud Selig had a chance to make this right for Galarraga, his teammates, the game of baseball, and for posterity. Selig knows what the rest of us know; Jason Donald was out and Galarraga earned a perfect game fairly and squarely.

Yet, Selig has announced that he will not overturn the incorrect call, right this wrong, and award Galarraga his perfect game. The only thing Selig has agreed to review is instant replay, which should already be in effect anyway.

Baseball is a game of history and tradition that goes back a century-and-a-half. And it is rightly proud of most of it. Yet, we are now living in the 21st Century, not the !9th. It's long since time for instant replay. All of the other major sports employ it, and neither history nor tradition is more important than getting the right call. The game and its players deserve it.

The bottom line is that the fans at home watching instant-replay on TV, and those in the stands viewing the Jumbotron, shouldn't know what an umpire doesn't, yet should, know. Within moments, even they can easily see the error of their ways, yet they can't overturn an erroneous call. That's inexcusable. The best thing about instant reply is that it is instant.

Galarraga is the most unlikely pitcher to throw a near-perfect game. He's 28 and was just recalled from Triple-A Toledo on May 16 after pitching poorly during spring training. He lost out in a competition for the final spot in the rotation to Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson, both of whom have since been traded.

But on one night he was perfect. Yet Jim Joyce wasn't. And that's okay. It's understandable. To err is human. It's widely noted that nobody is perfect. But last might, Armando Glarraga was.

This injustice was fixable. But Bud Selig chose history and tradition over honesty and integrity, not to mention modern technology. We've learned a lot about Galarraga and Joyce from this unfortunate event. As for Bud Selig, this only reinforces what we already knew; he is stubborn, rigid, and stuck in the past.

The record books may indicate that only 20 perfect games have been thrown in MLB history, and incredibly two of them were this year – a first. Yet everyone now knows that there was a 21st last night. Armando Galarraga, and his perfect performance on one June night, will not be forgotten by history.

Red Sox Suddenly Coming Alive

2010-05-27T21:49:00.000-07:00

The poor start to the Red Sox season came as a surprise to many. Especially since the offense, which seemed suspect to many at the start of the season, has been a force.

The Red Sox are fourth in baseball in runs, second in homers, third in doubles, fourth in OPS, and sixth in OBP. And they've done all that without Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron for most of the season.

However, the team built on pitching and defense has been surprisingly deficient in both areas for much of the season.

The Red Sox starter's cumulative ERA of 4.54 is 21st in MLB and ninth in the AL. That's something no one could have predicted, especially with a front three of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and John Lackey.

And far too often, Red Sox fielders have looked like the Keystone Kops on defense. At times, their bumbling futility has been nothing short of jaw-dropping. But some of those dramatic and egregious misplays have overshadowed the fact that the Red Sox 27 errors are ranked ninth in the AL, and their .985 fielding percentage is fourth in the AL.

Recently the team's defense, pitching, and overall performance, have been trending upward.

The Red Sox have now won four straight, seven of eight, and 15 of 22. And they've succeeded against a succession of winning teams, such as the Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Twins, Phillies, and Rays.

But the Sox started the season terribly against the Rays and Yankees and, despite their recent hot streak, are still 6.5 games out of first as a result. Boston is now 26-21, the first time they've been five games above .500 this season.

There are 115 games yet to play, and if the Sox manage to win 60 percent of their remaining schedule, they'll wind up with 95 wins – exactly the number the club figures it needs to qualify for the playoffs each year.

While finishing in first in the AL East may be a lofty goal at this point, the Wild Card spot suddenly seems a lot more realistic.

The starting pitching finally seems to be coming around and looks like the staff that everyone had been expecting. With the exception of Lackey's last outing, six of their last seven start have been fantastic.

Sox starters are 6-1 with a 1.44 ERA in the last seven games.

There have been some surprises, such as Josh Beckett's 1-1 record and 7.29 ERA.

However, Clay Buchholz seems to have finally delivered on all that promise. Buchholz's 3.07 ERA leads all Sox starters, as do his six wins. And he has the most wins (12) of any AL starter since last August 19.

There are plenty of other reasons for optimism, as well.

Dustin Pedroia's home run and RBI totals are well ahead of his 2008 MVP season.

Adrian Beltre leads the Red Sox with 56 hits and a .327 average. The odd thing is that the Sox signed him for his defense and 25-homer potential. But Beltre has just three homers and seven errors. Despite his lack of power, Beltre is hitting lights out so far, which is something no one ever expected.

Kevin Youkilis is having an MVP-caliber season, batting .316 with three triples, 10 HR, 29 RBI, and a stunning .458 OBP, which is second highest in the Majors. He also leads the Majors in walks (28) and runs (40).

The question for the Red Sox is how they can improve by the trade deadline.

The Sox have a number of veterans with expiring contracts, such as David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Jason Varitek, and Victor Martinez. Aside from Martinez, none of them have a lot of trade value. Aside from that, their more productive, youthful players are guys they've built their team around (Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury), or are veterans on short-term deals (Beltre, Cameron, and Marco Scutaro).

Mike Lowell can still hit and may still have some trade value. Lowell had three doubles on May 3, becoming the first player since 1952 to accomplished that feat eight times in his career. He surpassed George Brett, who did it seven times. Lowell needs regular at-bats to maintain his rhythm, something he won't get in Boston.

A Rangers official told the Globe's Nick Cafardo last week he’d love to get Lowell in Texas. The Rangers are looking for a righthanded hitter who can produce.

Martinez's defensive deficiencies are the primary reason the Sox have held off on negotiating an extension with him. There are serious concerns about him at catcher going forward, and it's likely the Sox view him as a first baseman / DH in the future.

The Indians said Martinez wore down catching every day, and that it affected his hitting. Unfortunately, he got off to a very slow start this year. Given his defensive deficiencies, if he doesn't hit, he has little value behind the plate.

Depending on the team's record in July, Jonathan Papelbon's name will likely surface in trade discussions.

Boston's closer hasn't been as dominant as in the past, and has been trending downward in recent years.

This year, he's 1-3 with a 3.00 ERA, which is well below is career 1.92 ERA. Over 21 innings he's given up 14 hits, 11 walks, and hit one batsman, amounting to 25 baserunners. That's a WHIP of 1.25, which is decent. And he has fanned 16 batters, which is also decent. However, none of this amounts to the dominance he once showed.

It's hard to envision the Red Sox giving Papelbon the multi-year deal he is seeking before 2011, especially with Daniel Bard waiting in the wings.

Incredibly, Papelbon recently suffered his first regular season blown save since last July.

But because it was against the Yankees, and because of the way the team was playing, it was magnified.

Yet, it was the first walk-off home run given up by Papelbon in his five-year career, which is simply amazing.

Coming into that game, Papelbon had made 22 straight conversions. The only other time he allowed two homers in a game was to Minnesota's Justin Morneau and Jacque Jones in his major league debut on July 31, 2005,

With the exception of Game Three in last year's ALDS, he's been pretty solid and reliable.

To even consider trading him this season, the Red Sox would have to appear to be out of contention by the trade deadline, something that suddenly seems less likely.

2010-05-09T15:25:00.000-07:00

May, a Make or Break Month for Red Sox

The Red Sox are team still struggling to find their identity as they near the midpoint of May.

Having dropped two in a row to the Yankees, the Sox are now back below .500, at 15-16. They find themselves in fourth place in the AL East, and 7.5 games behind the division-leading Rays.

The Red hadn't strung together a winning streak of longer than two games this season, until they swept four in a row from the Angels this week. The offense suddenly awoke, outscoring the Angels 36-16.

But now they've lost two in a row to the Yankees, losing the series before today's game is even played. The Red Sox have proven themselves to be a team of streaks, and the winning variety haven't been long, or frequent, enough.

At this point, the Sox only solace is that the Yankees started 15-17 last season, then ended up with 103 wins and a World Series championship.

But things won't get any easier for the Sox during the rest of May. After this three-game series with the Yankees, the Blue Jays — who are ahead of the Sox in the standings — come to town. After that the Sox go to Detroit, and then to Yankee Stadium. After that, they’re home against the Twins for two games before heading out to Philadelphia and Tampa. All of those teams are over .500, and three are division leaders.

The Sox won't catch a break until May 27, when they return home to host the Royals.

At that point, we should all know if the Red Sox have any chance of competing in the AL East this season. Though they've been without two-thirds of their starting outfield for nearly a month, many would argue that it's already too late for a meaningful recovery anyway.

The Red Sox are essentially relying on the Rays and/or Yankees to collapse – perhaps due to key injuries – to get back into the playoff hunt. But a team wants to chart its own course, be responsible for its own fate, and not rely on another team's demise to provide hope or opportunity. Yet, that's the reality the Sox are facing at this point. They are 1-8 against the Rays and Yanks this year, all at Fenway.

When they leave town Wednesday night, the Sox will have played 23 of their first 35 games at Fenway, where they have traditionally shined. However, they are 9-10 at home this season.

The Red Sox offense has been better than predicted; the Sox are third in the league in batting average, homers, and runs.

However, the pitching and defense – the very things this team was purported to have been built on – have been disappointing, to say the least.

The Sox’ staff ERA is 5.11, putting them near the bottom of the American League. And it's not the bullpen's fault; the starter's ERA is 5.21. This was supposed to be the best starting three, maybe four, in baseball. Not so much.

Adrian Beltre, who was alleged to be the best defensive third baseman in the AL, now has seven errors, and it's only the second week of May. Believe it or not, Beltre has more errors than any other player in baseball. Indeed, Beltre's .327 average has been a welcome surprise, but the Red Sox brought him to Boston for his defense.

Defense begins up the middle, and unfortunately Victor Martinez can't play defense. He is simply a liability behind the plate. Bill Hall doesn't belong in the outfield, and Jeremy Hermida is not a defensive standout either.

May will be a definitive month for the Red Sox. By the end of the month, we will all know whether this is a playoff caliber team, or not. Management may already know, regardless of their optimistic pronouncements.

Theo Epstein and Co. may have to make uncomfortable decisions about players such as David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and even Martinez by the end of this month, or next. Lowell and Ortiz can't run or effectively play defense, and at $12 million apiece, neither has any trade value.

Martinez will be a free agent at season's end and doesn't appear to be the team's catcher of the future. So, unless the club sees him as a DH or first baseman going forward, they may choose to trade him by the deadline.

The Sox are not in a position to do a salary dump. No club will pick up any meaningful amount of Ortiz's or Lowell's remaining salaries, and JD Drew is also untradable. Even if the Sox believe the season is lost and want to groom Josh Reddick for a spot in the outfield, facing big league pitching, they can't make room for him by moving the $14 million-a-year Drew, who is signed through next season.

The Red Sox may not be able to fix this team by the deadline, and considering that their payroll is already in excess of $170 million, owner John Henry may be unwilling to invest further in a team of overpriced underachievers.

Considering the talent of their chief rivals in the AL East, May is a make or break month for the Red Sox. In just a few short weeks we should know if this team will buyers, or sellers, in July.

Red Sox Experiencing Power Outage

2010-04-30T07:22:00.001-07:00

Twenty-two games into this season, the Red Sox have finally drawn even at 11-11, putting them alone in third place.

The Sox have won five of their last six games and seven out of nine. With the exception of Wednesday's 2-0 victory, every one of them was won by one run. That hasn't happened since 1943. Over those eight games, the Sox have scored 47 runs and their opponents 45.

That's just squeaking by.

The Red Sox are eighth out of the 14 AL teams in runs this season, and seventh in batting average, putting them solidly in the middle of the pack.

That's clearly not the sign of a playoff team.

Dustin Pedroia continues to lead the team in home runs with five, yet he hasn't hit one out of the park since April 17. That's how impotent Red Sox' bats have been so far this season.

David Ortiz, JD Drew, Victor Martinez and Bill Hall are doing nothing but making outs. Yet, thirty-one-year-old minor league outfielder Darnell McDonald is suddenly one of the team's offensive stars.

McDonald has driven in six runs since he arrived, more than Martinez and Ortiz. He is 8 for 24 with five runs scored, four extra-base hits, three walks and six RBI in the nine games since arriving in Boston.

While McDonald is a great story, he's not the solution to the Red Sox offensive woes. The Sox' primary bats need to wake up soon, or they'll need to get help elsewhere.

That's why the promotion of Lars Anderson to Pawtucket is so interesting.

Anderson was hitting .355, with five homers, five doubles, 15 RBI, and a 1.086 OPS through 17 games, when he was advanced.

His promotion is an intriguing development because it came so early in the season. Are the Sox hoping that he responds positively and can contribute to the big league team before the season is over?

Anderson is only 22, and he struggled mightily last year in Portland. Yet, you can't help but think this is a reaction to the struggles of Ortiz and the lack of a true masher in the Sox lineup.

After having built the team around its pitching staff, and with Clay Buchholz being their most consistent and effective starter so far this year, the Sox surely don't want to trade him for a power hitter right now. Yet, they're going to need an upgrade at some point if the offense doesn't come alive.

However, a trade for a premier hitter would be very costly in terms of prospects, potentially upsetting the balance of everything Theo Epstein has been working toward the last few seasons; inexpensive, club-controlled, homegrown talent.

As it stands, the team payroll is approaching $175 million.

It's hard to figure that the young Anderson can be the solution to the Sox' offensive needs, but it sure would be one hell of a story if he continues to tattoo the ball and earns his way onto the big league club this season.

The Red Sox could use some firepower from wherever they can get it. Look no further than Darnell McDonald.

Red Sox Facing Bad Breaks, Playing Bad Baseball

2010-04-24T18:32:00.000-07:00

Coming into this season, there were many concerns — even some predictions — that the Red Sox wouldn't have the offense to prevail in the AL East, much less win the Pennant.

So far, those concerns appear valid. In the first 17 games of this season, the Sox have scored two or fewer runs seven times, including two shut outs.

David Ortiz's struggles have continued, which hasn't come as a surprise to many. What is surprising is that the heart of the Sox order has also struggled so far. No one could have predicted that so many of the Sox premier hitters would look positively anemic in April.

Consider the following:

Victor Martinez: 262, 1 HR, 5 RBI
Kevin Youkilis: .234, 2 HR, 7 RBI
JD Drew: .158, 2 HR, 7 RBI

Diminutive second baseman Dustin Pedroia leads the club with five homers, more than twice as many as anyone else.

The 2010 Red Sox were supposedly built on a foundation of pitching and defense, but so far you'd never know it.

The Red Sox have the second hIghest starter's ERA in the AL (5.31), behind only the White Sox (5.67). The Tigers (5.30) and the Royals (4.87) trail the Red Sox. Given the Red Sox talented young staff, that was definitely not supposed to be the case.

And the Red Sox came into tonight's game with the ninth ranked defense in the AL, having made 12 errors in 17 games. Errors aside, the Red Sox defense has not looked sharp. Sox fielders have often looked tentative and awkward.

The Sox have allowed the most stolen bases in the AL – by a long shot. Boston has allowed 37 steals, more than twice as many as the next closest team, the Tigers, with 17. The Yankees and Indians (15 apiece) are tied for third. What's stunning is that Red Sox catchers have caught only two of the 39 runners attempting to steal this season.

So much for pitching and defense.

With all of this in mind, it's easy to see why the Red Sox came into tonight's game at 7-10, five games out of first place. After spending $170 million on payroll (so far) this season, this is not what the Red Sox thought they were buying.

However, there is at least one encouraging sign as of late; the Sox have won their last three one-run games.

Without question, the best Sox top hitters will eventually come around; it's just a matter of time. Though it's questionable whether Ortiz will ever regain his prior form (Andruw Jones should give us hope), better things can reasonably be expected from Pedroia, Youkilis, Martinez, and Drew.

Further, the Red Sox have been significantly bitten by the injury bug. Tonight's starting outfield is comprised by Bill Hall, Jeremy Hermida, and Darnell McDonald.

Mike Cameron is on the DL with an abdominal injury known as a sports hernia. It's too soon to tell, but the injury could eventually require surgery. Though the natural suspicion is that the injury is age related (Cameron is 37), younger players such as Cliff Lee, Josh Hamilton, and Michael Young have also dealt with the same injury.

The Red Sox haven't yet gotten to witness all that Cameron can offer offensively or defensively, since he's only played in 11 games and had 30 at-bats.

But perhaps the biggest blow to the Red Sox is the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury due to cracked ribs. The injury was the result of a collision with Bill Hall, who was playing short, and should have never happened. If the two players had played together longer and communicated better, they would have avoided each other. Neither player had a sense of the other's tendencies, and the collision appeared completely avoidable.

As a result, the Red Sox have been without their leadoff hitter, which has led to a reshuffling of the lineup and poor results. Ellsbury was batting .333 when he went on the DL.

With any luck, both Ellsbury and Cameron will return soon, and the Red Sox will be able to field the team they envisioned and assembled earlier this spring.

Until then, they have to hope they don't dig themselves a hole so deep they can't get out of it. So far this season, the Sox haven't been able to put together a winning streak longer than two games.

If that doesn't change in a hurry, the Sox may find themselves looking up at the Yankees and Rays in the standings all season long.

Red Sox Offense Living Up To Pre-Season Doubts

2010-04-19T14:46:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox were booed as they left the field today. They've suffered five straight losses, including a sweep by the Rays, and now they're six games out of first.

The Sox are now 4-9 this season. You have to go back to 1996 to find a Red Sox team that got off to worse start after 13 games than the current edition.

Of specific concern, the Sox are 1-6 against the Yankees and Rays this season, with all games played at Fenway. The Boston locals are currently facing their worst home start since the 1932 team started 1-9 at home.

Boston has scored just 17 runs over their last 65 innings. They left five runners in scoring position today, are 0-for-30 in that department over the last five games, and 12-for-91 (.103) over the last 12 games.

Over the last five games, the team has struck out 35 times, while walking 19 times. Collectively, the Sox are hitting .249, have an OBP of .313, and are averaging 3.8 runs a game.

This afternoon, David Ortiz went 0-3, and is now batting .158. JD Drew has just two hits, to go along with 12 strike outs, in his last 23 at-bats and is now batting .146. Kevin Youkilis went 0-4 and is now bating .217. Victor Martinez has grounded into six double plays and is now batting 212.

This, folks, was supposed to be the heart of the Red Sox order.

Bill Hall and his .091 average will not come off the bench and save this offense. And after a rocket-like start, Jeremy Hermida has rapidly fallen back to earth, bringing his .219 batting average with him.

And I haven't even mentioned the horrible defensive lapses of a team supposedly built on a foundation of defense. But that's another story, for another day. There's too much to focus on regarding the offense alone, at present.

The conventional wisdom coming into this season was that the Red Sox lacked the offensive fire power to win the AL East, much less the World Series. Just 13 games into the season, the Red Sox have done little to dispute that. Their 5'7" second baseman, Dustin Pedroia, leads the club with five long balls and 13 RBI.

That's a very bad sign.

Many fans and analysts doubted the Red Sox power potential from the outset, and, in fact, the offense in general. Consequently, they also believe that the Sox will eventually have to upgrade the offense via trade. San Diego first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has been the most discussed target, and perhaps the most desired, by Red Sox fans and local media.

However, watching Tampa first baseman Carlos Pena this weekend was a sad reminder of what the Red Sox once had, and what could have been.

The Sox had Pena on the roster for 18 games in 2006, after he was released by Detroit. In that span, Pena batted .273. Yet, the Sox didn't think they had a place for him with Kevin Youkilis at first, Mike Lowell at third, and David Ortiz at DH.

So Pena left as a free agent.

Imagine if the Sox had held on to the local boy when they had him four years ago, at the age of 28. They would've had a young, power-hitting first baseman/DH, with Youkilis seamlessly shifting back to third. Then, perhaps, we wouldn't be talking about the need for offense, or a big trade potentially involving Adrian Gonzalez, or any other slugger for that matter.

Under that scenario, Boston would already have a young 40-home run hitter on its roster without having to trade for one this summer.

Letting Pena walk ended up being a big mistake for the Sox; Pena hit 46, 31, and 39 homers in successive seasons for Tampa, as well as driving in at least 100 runs each year. He finished second in the AL in homers and slugging in 2007, the year after the Sox had him. What's more, Pena won a Gold Glove in 2008.

Yes, Pena is just a career .248 hitter with a .356 OBP, but he sure would help the Red Sox a lot right now, as well as over the past two years.

At this point, it seems a foregone conclusion that the Red Sox will seek some offensive help before the season gets away from them. But acquiring any big-name slugger will be costly in terms of prospects. That's what makes giving up on Pena so quickly so lamentable right now.

Indeed, it's quite early in the 2010 season, and there are still a whopping 149 games to go. The Yankees started slowly last year, were five games out as of June 23, and had lost all eight games against the Red Sox at that point.

Things worked out well for the Yanks in the end. But right now, the way the Sox offense looks, it's tough to imagine the same happy ending for them.

How Long can The Red Sox Wait on Ortiz With Hermida And Lowell In The Wings?

2010-04-15T23:50:00.000-07:00

Red Sox manager Terry Francona currently faces two questions that are in essence one and the same; how much longer can he, in good conscience, continue to write David Ortiz's name into the lineup each day, and how much longer can he not write Jeremy Hermida's name into that lineup?

Ortiz has 13 whiffs in 26 at-bats. He has three walks and just four hits (Dustin Pedrioa had four in one game this week), one of which was a ball that bounced in and out of a Twins outfielder's glove. Another hit, an opposite-field double down the third-base line on Friday, was far more of an accident than an accomplishment given that the ball hit the top if his bat.

As of today, Ortiz is sporting a paltry .154 batting average.

Meanwhile, Herrnida notched a hit in his first game with the Sox last week. He had replaced Ortiz, who'd been ejected after arguing a called third strike. Hermida then hit a homer in his first start, which came the very next day. In all, Hermida has five hits in 17 at-bats, resulting in a .294 average. Naturally, this is a very small sample size, but four of the five hits were for extra bases and resulted in six RBI.

Hermida is just 26, and entering the prime of his career. He was the 11th player picked in the 2002 draft. He has a lot of upside and he needs at-bats. Yet, he was brought to the Red Sox to be a fourth outfielder, after being a starter in Florida.

Ortiz, on the other hand, has been in decline for two years. Though he hit 27 homers after June 6 last season, Ortiz had an abysmal first two months of the season, and finished the year batting .238. He followed that by batting .083 in the ALDS, and then proceeded to have a miserable spring training, at one point going 1-for-19.

Francona and hitting coach Dave Magadan said he was just working on his timing, and that it should be taken too seriously.

But his troubles have continued.

And then there''s Mike Lowell, who is unhappily sitting on the bench waiting his turn. In Saturday's game, he surprised many with a nifty diving backhanded stab that snared a ball seemingly destined for left field. Though he may still be a capable defender, with Adrain Beltre in front of him, time at third will be sparing.

But Lowell can still hit, and if Ortiz cannot, at-bats can be had in the role of DH. Lowell only has eight at-bats so far this season, resulting in two hits. But that's just two fewer than Ortiz in less than a third of the at-bats.

The point is, with the young and promising Hermida making a strong case for himself very quickly, and with the versatile veteran Lowell not so patiently awaiting his turn, Ortiz's days may be numbered unless he turns things around quickly.

There's no doubting that Ortiz cares; he was the first Red Sox player to arrive to the ballpark yesterday and took extra hitting,

A couple of years ago, Ortiz was one of the most feared hitters in baseball. Now, it's becoming obvious that teams are taking the bat out of Kevin Youkilis' hands by pitching around him. They no longer respect Ortiz and know he can't beat them.

It's all become so sad for Ortiz, so quickly. It's hard to watch because of all he meant to the team for so long. He was the face of the franchise, a huge man with swagger and a smiling face. Now that swagger is gone, replaced by slow, uncomfortable walks back to the dugout after each strikeout or pop out.

If Ortiz doesn't have one last resurgence very soon, a great Red Sox career will have prematurely ended. The Red Sox can't have him lingering and sulking on the bench.

The sad truth is, if Ortiz can't hit, he's useless to the Red Sox. In addition, Hermida and Lowell are waiting anxiously.

A Stressed-Out David Ortiz Melts Down On Reporters

2010-04-07T14:38:00.000-07:00

David Ortiz went on a profanity-laced tirade against reporters who questioned his 0-for-7 start this season. Ortiz is the only Red Sox regular without a hit after two games.

But that's just it; only two games have been played and perhaps it's premature to question Ortiz after just seven at-bats.

After everything he gave the Red Sox and their fans over his first five years in Boston, Ortiz feels that he's earned the benefit of the doubt.

However, while Ortiz can expect goodwill for his past exploits, it won't buy him acceptance for his current failures. Sports are a "what have you done for me lately?" business. No one would give the love to Jim Rice, Dwight Evans, or Mo Vaughn if they suited up tonight and took a spot in the lineup–unless they produced.

All of Ortiz's problems over the past two seasons are evident once again after just two games. The left-handed hitter is still pull happy, and a simple infield shift thwarts him. If he simply went the other way and hit the ball to left or center, his problems might be solved.

However, for long stretches last season, in the ALDS, and in spring training this year, Ortiz couldn't catch up to the fastball. And he's consistently fooled by the change-up as well, so his timing is off, leading him to pop up and foul off l too frequently.

Clearly, Ortiz is feeling the pressure, something he seemed immune to for many years.

You can't help but feel bad for him. For some guys, it all just slips away so quickly. I truly hope he recovers and he may, to some degree. But my bet is that Ortiz will never again be the hitter he once was, and he can't stand living in his own shadow. He raised the bar so high that he can't get over it any more.

Sure, writing him off at this point seems premature. After all, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester had rough outings this week as well, and no one is talking about jettisoning them.

But had Beckett or Lester been on a two-year downward trend, the media and fans would be a lot more concerned today due to their poor performances. However, based on their recent histories, we're all confident that those games were just aberrations.

And Jacoby Ellsbury was 0-for-5 on Opening Night. Yet, there were no worries due to his progression over the past couple of years.

Though Ortiz was solid after June 1 last year, he still slumped again in July, and batted .083 (1-for-12) with no walks and four K's in the ALDS. Including spring training, his two-year trend reveals a regression.

We're all pulling for the guy. The team really needs him to perform to achieve success, and avoid a desperate trade early in the season. The concern is that the last two years are not just an aberration. We can't forget that Ortiz batted .238 last season.

Unquestionably, Ortiz still has power; he just has to hit the ball cleanly for it to leave the park. The Red Sox would be better served if Ortiz hits .280 this season with just 25 homers, than if he hits .240 and somehow manages to smack 35 homers. The former would likely result in more runs than the latter.

Unfortunately, neither seems very likely.

After what we've seen the past two years, we can remain hopeful, if not optimistic.

A Good Start and Some Good Signs for Red Sox

2010-04-05T13:57:00.000-07:00

Though the first game was a bit of a mixed bag, all's well that ends well.

Red Sox resident ace Josh Beckett looked rather ordinary on the mound, throwing 94 pitches in just 4.2 innings. In that span, Beckett surrendered eight hits, three walks, two home runs, and five runs in all. What's more, he had just one strike out, his fewest in nearly two years (June, 2007).

The good news was that the Red Sox came back from deficits of 5-1 and 7-5, scoring the winning run on a passed ball in the seventh.

And the Sox bullpen out dueled the Yankee pen, an optimistic sign for Sox fans everywhere.

Red Sox' bullpen: 4.1 innings, 4 hits, 2 earned runs, 3 walks, 1 strikeout
Yankees' bullpen: 2.2 innings, 6 hits, 3 earned runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout

It was also encouraging to see the new guys get off to strong starts.

Adrian Beltre went 1 for 3 with two RBIs. Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro were both 2 for 3. The trio accounted for five hits, two runs scored, two walks, three RBI – and no errors.

Beating the defending champs on Opening Night was uplifting for both the Red Sox and their fans, but as Kevin Youkilis noted, “We’ve still got 161 games to play.’’

Winning at home is one thing, but the Red Sox will need to get it done on the road this season as well.

The Red Sox were a very good home team last year, as they have been for much of the decade. In fact, since 2003, the Red Sox 373 wins, .294 average, 5.9 runs per game, and 1,411 doubles at home lead the Majors.

However, the team's glaring weakness in 2009 was that they were significantly better at home than on the road.

The Red Sox scored 481 runs at Fenway last year, leading the Majors. But they were ninth in the Majors (fifth in the AL) in runs scored on the road, with 391. That 90 run differential was their Achilles heel, and it was exploited by the Angels in the ALDS.

The Red Sox 2009 season can be defined as a tale of two teams; the Red Sox at home, and the Red Sox on the road.

The team's lackluster road offense haunted them all season; they were just 39-42 away from Fenway in 2009.

Much of that was due to the fact that the Sox batted just .257 on the road, a number that ranked ninth in the American League behind teams like Cleveland, Oakland and Chicago.

And they were 12th in slugging on the road, at .414. That was in direct contrast to their offense at home, where they were first in slugging, at .498, and fifth in average, at .294.

The Sox road deficiencies were especially obvious in the ALDS; the team hit just .131 in Anaheim. But they exploded for six runs in Game 3 upon returning to Fenway.

Those were the issues Theo Epstein and company hoped to address this offseason; they needed to create a team with more balance, and more offense away from Fenway.

While the consensus is that the Sox' GM significantly improved the club's pitching and defense, questions remain about the offense.

Once you get past the first four batters in the Red Sox order, the questions begin.

After batting just .238 last year, can David Ortiz still hit?

Is Adrian Beltre's shoulder fully healed, and can he recover his lost offense?

Can JD Drew stay healthy and productive for at least 140 games this year?

Will Mike Cameron's free swinging ways, low average, and high strike out rate prove to be a significant offensive liability?

Can Marco Scurato repeat his 2009 season?

Those questions are yet to be answered, and we may not know the truth until perhaps some time in late May. It should take that long to get a sense of the offense this roster can produce, and for each hitter's cold or hot starts to even out.

Last night was a good sign; the Red Sox scored nine runs with the help of just one homer, a two-run shot by Dustin Pedroia.

To be successful, they will need more road offense than last season, and more balance through batting order as well. If the 5-9 hitters can be productive, the Red Sox will be a premier team, one that can win the World Series.

But there are lots of "ifs". If every batter hits like he's capable of, this will be a very fun and interesting season for the Red Sox.

That remains to be seen, with 161 games still to play.

Likely 25-Man Roster As Red Sox Break Spring Training

2010-03-31T22:50:00.000-07:00

It will be very interesting to see how the Red Sox 25-man roster finally shapes up as the team breaks camp in Fort Meyers.

There will be a few tough calls, in part because some players are out of options and can't be sent down to the minors.

The team will likely carry their customary 12-man pitching staff. Which players ultimately fill out the bullpen is still in flux.

Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, and Manny Delcarmen seem to be assured spots. The remaining two are up fro grabs.

Scott Atchison, Boof Bonser, Joe Nelson, Alan Embree and Scott Schoeneweis are all battling for the last two spots.

Bonser, who is out of options, has had some groin problems this spring. So he'll start the season on the DL, which buys both him and the Red Sox some time.

Embree got shelled on Wednesday, and since there is just one more available spot for a lefty (in addition to Okajima), Schoeneweis will likely get the nod. Atchison, who has been praised by Terry Francona, will probably get the other spot.

The Sox will carry 13 position players, which means there are four open bench spots. Jason Varitek will get one of them, as will Jeremy Hermida.

This means that Tug Hulett and Josh Reddick (who have both opened some eyes this spring), plus the versatile Bill Hall and Mike Lowell are competing for the final two spots.

Hulett, who made his debut in 2008, still has options, So, he will likely start the season in Pawtucket, along with newly acquired infielder Kevin Frandsen.

It's unfortunate that Hulett won't break camp will the big league club because he's earned it. The 27-year-old has baited .289 this spring, has two homers (tied for second) and leads the team with 15 RBI.

Another casualty of the numbers game is Reddick. The young outfielder has had a fantastic spring, leading the club with a .393 batting average and a .696 slugging percentage. He also has two homers, nine doubles and nine RBI.

Despite making the case that he belongs on the big league roster, Reddick still has options and will start the season in the minors. Unfortunately for him, he will be the odd man out, though he has proven himself more deserving than other players.

Bill Hall, though he's batted just .196, will likely make the roster due to his versatility; Hall can play multiple infield and outfield positions.

Furthermore, the Red Sox gave up Casey Kotchman for him, so they probably feel compelled to see how the 30-year-old veteran fares over the season's first couple of months. If he doesn't perform, Hulett will be waiting.

If the Sox can trade Lowell, their roster problem is solved. They would just need to receive a minor league player in return, someone who doesn't need to go on the big league roster right away.

However, with David Ortiz's continuing struggles, the club may think twice before dealing Lowell, who seems to have found his stroke at the plate.

The Sox will have to pay at least $9 million of Lowell's salary to any trade partner. At that cost, it may make more sense just to keep the veteran third baseman. If the team is convinced he can occasionally play first, his value to them is only increased.

The roster will be finalized over the next couple days, at least publicly. The team has likely made its decisions internally at this point, and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Waiting For David Ortiz To Rebound May Be Wishful Thinking

2010-03-30T13:43:00.000-07:00

David Ortiz'z struggles in 2009 are well-documented.

Through 40 games and 149 at-bats last year, Ortiz was batting under .200 and had no home runs. By June 1, he was batting .185 and had one home run.

It was the longest power drought in history to start a season by a player who had hit 50 home runs in a season, as Ortiz did in 2006.

At the All-Star break, Ortiz was batting .222 with 12 homers and 47 RBI. And he continued to come on strong; over the last 69 games of the season, Ortiz hit .258 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI. And over the season's final 104 games, the Red Sox DH had 27 homers and 81 RBI.

But Ortiz went backward in the postseason, posting an anemic .083 batting average that was the result of one hit in 12 at-bats. There were no heroic home runs, no RBI, not even a walk. Ortiz had just one single and four strike outs.

The deep fears the Red Sox faced early in the season came back in a flash. Once again, Ortiz looked like a spent player.

And so far this spring, Ortiz has done nothing to convince anyone that he isn't a shell of the star he once was.

Through most of spring training, Ortiz has reverted, looking like a feeble, frustrated former slugger. He still can't consistently catch up to fastballs, and too often fouls off, pops up, or swings and misses.

In truth, Ortiz's struggles began in 2008, his worst year ever as a Red Sox player. That year he posted a .264/.369/.507 batting line that included just 23 home runs and 89 RBIs. He followed that by hitting .186 with just one home run in the postseason.

For two consecutive seasons, Ortiz has struck out more often than he's walked, a radical departure from his prime years.

And last year, though his power numbers advanced slightly from 2008, his averaged dipped to just .238. That was a huge decline for a player who had hit at least .300 three times in his first six years with the Sox.

Last season, scouts noted that Ortiz was aware he couldn't catch up to the fastball. So he cheated and started so early that he couldn't adjust to the breaking ball. Ortiz was late on fastballs, and early on breaking balls and change-ups.

As a result, teams just pounded Ortiz with fastballs inside because he couldn't consistently drive them.

Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan diagnosed Ortiz's problems last year.

"When you start earlier you've got to make up your mind sooner about whether to swing and when you do that you swing at a lot of balls out of the strike zone. When you're able to wait and allow the ball to travel, your ball-strike recognition is better. Once he has trust in being short and direct to the ball, that's when he's going to recognize pitches a little better and that's when we're going to see him driving the ball."

What's worrisome is that Ortiz hasn't been able to maintain proper adjustments, and his negative tendencies have returned.

This spring, through 53 at-bats, Ortiz is hitting .226 with 12 strike outs. He has no walks and a .293 on-base percentage.

It's part of a decline that's been ongoing for a couple of years. However, now that he's in the final year of a contract that will pay him $12.5 million this year, the Red Sox may not be as patient as they were last year.

If Ortiz continues to struggle early on, the Red Sox will likely cut bait and make a move for a reliable hitter.

Ortiz's rapid fade is eerily reminiscent of another former Sox star. Jim Rice was an MVP candidate in 1986, declined rapidly, and was completely washed up by '89. He was just 36 at the time.

Like Rice, the 34-year-old Ortiz has often been mislabeled as a slugger. Both players were viewed as power hitters because each had a proclivity for home runs.

But the truth is, in their primes, both were simply great hitters. Both players hit over .300 numerous times, and because they were big, strong men who often made contact, balls regularly left the park.

But when vision goes, as was the case with Rice, it's over. And when bat speed decreases, as seems to be the case with Ortiz, a hitter's career faces the same consequences.

Just like Rice's sudden and rapid decline, watching David Ortiz wilt is both sad and disappointing.

The Red Sox were hoping for one last hurrah from Ortiz this year, but that appears to be nothing more than wishful thinking at this point.

Will The Red Sox Get Big Papi or Just David Ortiz?

2010-03-26T12:25:00.001-07:00

Over the past couple of seasons, the rapid decline of David Ortiz has been somewhat spectacular.

Ortiz has not hit 30 or more home runs since 2007. His batting average dropped to .264 in 2008, and .238 last year. Meanwhile, his OBP dipped to an anemic .332 last season.

In 2006 and '07, Ortiz had more walks than strikeouts. But last season, Ortiz struck out 134 times and drew 74 walks. And in '08, Ortiz posted 74 strike outs 70 walks.

His current trend is a bad one. He has been going in the wrong direction for two straight years.

That's why there was so much interest in Ortiz going into spring training. If Ortiz swings a potent bat this season, the Red Sox offense will be all the better for it.

But there is reason for concern.

The Red Sox DH started miserably last year, and looked impotent for two solid months. At times Ortiz seemed to lack a pulse. But he still managed to finish the year with 28 homers and 99 RBI. While those are solid numbers for most hitters, they were tepid for the player who became a cult hero over his first five years in Boston.

Much to everyone's disappointment, Ortiz is hitting .214 since the start of spring training. Sadly, many of us are hardly surprised. The scary thought is that, at age 34, Ortiz may be washed up. He looks the same way he did for much of last year at the plate; lost.

Ortiz is fond of saying, "It's not how you start – it's how you finish."

But considering that this is his last year under contract in Boston, if he doesn't start strong, he may not finish the season in Boston.

Mike Lowell is still on the roster, and if he's healthy (a big "if" at this point), he could be seen as a better alternative in the DH spot. Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And if he has no stick, then what's his value and function?

Lowell suffered a left knee contusion in today's game, the effects of which are unknown at present.

Perhaps of greater concern, he told reporters the other day that his right hip may never recover the mobility he'd been hoping for. He also recognizes that he may be best suited for a DH role in the AL.

While that doesn't exactly inspire hope that he'll ever be the stellar defensive player he once was, Lowell still believes he can hit and there's little reason to doubt him.

Despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has remained an offensive threat.

That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.

So while his eventual trade has been widely viewed as a foregone conclusion, given David Ortiz's continued struggles, that may not be the case after all.

Will The Red Sox Get Big Papi or Just David Ortiz?

2010-03-26T12:25:00.000-07:00

Nomar Garciaparra Retires as a Red Sox

2010-03-10T13:06:00.000-08:00

Nomar Garciaparra retiring as a member of the Red Sox is quite fitting. Garciaparra was the face of the franchise for many years.

The shortstop established himself by winning Rookie of the Year in 1997. It was an eye-popping season in which he hit .306 with 122 runs, 44 doubles, 30 homers, 98 RBI, and 22 steals.

In the process, Garciaparra set new MLB records for RBI by a leadoff hitter and most homers by a rookie shortstop. In addition, his 30-game hitting streak also set an AL rookie record. To top it all off, he won the Silver Slugger Award that year.

The Red Sox, and the rest of baseball, knew there were great things to come from the burgeoning young star, and for the better part of the next six years he delivered.

Garciaparra won consecutive AL batting titles in 1999 (.357) and 2000 (.372), becoming just the fourth Red Sox player to accomplish this feat. He was also the first right-handed batter to win consecutive batting titles since Joe DiMaggio. His .372 average in 2000 is the fourth highest in club history.

But a wrist injury in spring training of 2001 ruined his season and was an omen of the injuries that would plague him for the rest of his career. Unknown at that time was that Garciaparra suffered from a degenerative disease that affected his tendons and made him more susceptible to injury.

However, Garciaparra bounced back strongly in the 2002 season, batting .310 with 24 homers and 120 RBI while leading the league with 56 doubles.

In 2003, Garciaparra was second in the Majors in triples (13), fifth in the AL in hits (198), and second in the AL in runs scored (120). Though his average dropped from previous highs, he still managed to hit .301.

Yet the shine was beginning to come off his star in Boston.

Following that season, the Red Sox tried to trade Manny Ramirez to Texas for Alex Rodriguez, who would have supplanted Garciaparra at short. Meanwhile, Garciaparra was to have been traded to the White Sox for Magglio Ordonez. But the Rodriguez trade was aborted due to protests from the players union over the restructuring of his contract.

From that point, the die was cast; Nomar's days in Boston were numbered.

From this vantage point, it's hard to believe that there was once a healthy debate over who was the better shortstop, Garciaparra, Rodriguez, or Derek Jeter. But from 1998-2000, Garciaparra had the highest career OPS of the three, and from 1997-2003, he ranked second in the AL with a .325 batting average.

The trade of Garciaparra at the deadline in 2004 is now the stuff of legend. Many believe that it was the impetus for the club's first World Series Championship in 86 years.

Once loved more than any other player by Red Sox Nation, Nomar was quickly forgotten.

But what can't be forgotten are Garciaparra's impressive stats as a member of the Red Sox.

During his nine seasons in Boston, Garciaparra compiled a .323 batting average, 178 homers, and 690 RBI in 966 games. He tallied 100 runs six times, 100 RBI four times, and 25 homers four times.

He is fourth in club history in career batting average (.323) and fifth in slugging (.553) among players with at least 1,500 at-bats.

Garciaparra also ranks among Boston’s top 15 in career doubles (ninth, 279), extra-base hits (ninth, 507), home runs (11th, 178), total bases (11th, 2,194), runs (12th, 709), and hits (14th, 1,281).

It also shouldn't be forgotten that he was voted onto five All-Star teams as a member of the Red Sox, and six in total.

Some accused Garciaparra of not being tough enough to play through his injuries during his time in Boston. But at the time, no one was aware of the disease that afflicted him.

As a member of the Cubs, Garciaparra tore the muscles in his groin while running to first during spring training in 2005. The injury effectively ruined his season. However, he rebounded strongly in 2006, winning the NL Comeback Player of the Year Award.

Allowing Nomar Garciaparra to sign a one-day minor league contract and retire as a member of the Red Sox was a very gracious gesture and the appropriate move by the organization. He is undoubtedly one of the greatest players in team history.

As Curt Schilling noted after the 2004 World Series victory, if not for Nomar, the Sox might not have been in a position to win at all.

Hopefully that will never be forgotten—nor should Nomar's numerous illustrious achievements as a member of the Red Sox.

He is among the team's greats, and today was indeed a very fitting day.

2010 Red Sox Rotation: New & Improved

2010-03-04T21:59:00.001-08:00

There is a widespread consensus that the Red Sox starting rotation was significantly improved this winter. But while most of that improvement is attributed to the signing of John Lackey, there is more to it than just that.

Lackey will no doubt improve the Sox rotation. But in addition to adding the best free agent pitcher on the market, the Red Sox improved their rotation through subtraction.

The Red Sox gave 38 starts to three pitchers (Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Paul Byrd) who posted a cumulative 6.17 ERA last season, and who are no longer with the organization.

Last year, the Red Sox pitching staff often struggled after Josh Beckett and Jon Lester took their turns. The Sox received a quality start only 40 percent of the time last year when someone other than Lester or Beckett took the ball.

However, those struggles went beyond the shortcomings of Penny, Smoltz and Byrd.

Daisuke Matsuzaka was injured and ineffective most of the season, as was Tim Wakefield in the second half. But to the surprise of many, newcomers Penny and Smoltz didn't pan out nearly as well as projected.

In fact, there were 55 games last season in which Red Sox pitchers had a combined 6..28 ERA.

But this year, a healthy and in shape Daisuke Matsuzaka is returning. Dice-K's performance was awful in the eight games before going on the DL. However, in four games after returning, he threw six-plus innings per start and put up an ERA of 2.22.

The Red Sox need more of that pitcher, not the one who who's innings per start have been in steady decline. Dice-K's innings per start have dropped from 6.4 in 2007, to 5.8 in 2008, down to 4.9 last year.

Though Matsuzaka won 33 games over his first two seasons (the fourth most in baseball), of the 12 pitchers to win at least 30 games in that span, he ranked last in innings pitched.

With Clay Buchholz poised to join the rotation on a full-time basis, in addition to the 31-year-old Lackey, the Sox rotation will be a lot younger this season. Gone are the elder-statesmen Smotlz and Byrd, and Wakefield will likely have a diminished role.

Indeed, I do believe that Buchholz is a lock for one of the five rotation spots. Red Sox management believes that he is ready to finally break out, and that he can win as many as 12-15 games this year.

The fifth spot will come down to the health and effectiveness of Matsuzaka and Wakefield. Despite Matsuzka's recent back issues, being 14 years Wakefield's junior likely gives him the advantage.

The hope is that by getting younger the rotation will also be healthier and more effective this season. On Opening Day, Lackey will be 31, Beckett will be 30, Matsuzaka 29, Lester 26, and Buchholz 25. The seasoned veteran, Wakefield, will be 43.

The Sox rotation will be bolstered by three pitchers in the primes of their careers who have each won the deciding game of a World Series (Lackey, Becket and Lester). Each of them would be a viable no. 1 stater on almost any rotation.

However, nothing is guaranteed; the trio still has to go out and prove that they are the best front line in the Majors. If anyone gets injured, the team's high expectations could be dashed. After all, starting pitching should be one of the Red Sox' overwhelming strengths this year.

Lackey should certainly be an asset to the team's rotation; he has a career 3.81 ERA, all in the AL. And he can be innings eater, having reached 200 innings in four seasons, and 198 in another.

However, Lackey hasn't come close to 200 the last two seasons, missing a month-plus in each due to arm trouble. In 2008 he made just 24 starts, and last year he made 27.

As a result, Lackey has only thrown 163 1/3 and 176 1/3 innings the last two seasons. Depending on how you look at it, that's either a good or a bad thing.

After making just 51 starts over the last two years, some might take the view that Lackey's arm hasn't received as much wear as if he'd made the customary 30-plus starts each year. Perhaps his arm has been somewhat preserved, leaving him fresh this year and beyond.

The Red Sox obviously think so. They had better hope so.

After striking out 199 and 190 batters in consecutive seasons in 2005-06, Lackey's strikeout rate has dipped dramatically, down to 179, then 130, and 139 each of the last three seasons.

So, there is legitimate reason for concern. Lackey has pitched in – and won – some big games. But his resume does have holes.

The big Texan is 31 and has never won more than 19 games. Overall, he has won just 102 games in eight seasons – an average of 13 wins per year. And he has never struck out 200 batters in any season, though he did fan 199 in 2005.

The Red Sox invested a lot in John Lackey, and they have a lot riding on that investment. At the outset, given his age, experience and history, he seems a better bet for success than Brad Penny, John Smoltz or Paul Byrd ever did last year.

If healthy, the Red Sox' staff should be among the elite rotations in the Majors in 2010, and perhaps beyond.

2010 Red Sox Will Look Like A Very Different Team

2010-02-17T15:31:00.000-08:00

The Red Sox open Spring Training for the 2010 season this week. It will be a welcome moment for the millions of Red Sox fans just jonesing for baseball since the 2009 season ended so abruptly.

The boys from Boston will look like a very different team on Opening Day; five of the nine roster positions will have different players from the last Opening Day.

This winter, the Sox picked up Jeremy Hermida, Marco Scuatro, John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Bill Hall, in succession. That's quite a bit of change.

Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, Jason Bay, and Rocco Baldelli are all gone, not to mention Javier Lopez, Takashi Saito, and Billy Wagner. Perhaps even Mike Lowell will join their ranks.

Defensively, at least, the Sox will be significantly improved. The pitchers will feel very confident with four Gold Glove-caliber players patrolling the infield, and the outfield should be outstanding as well. As always, JD Drew just has to stay healthy. The Red Sox would love to get at least 140 games out of him, but it's hard to expect.

On the whole the Sox got more athletic. Hermida should give them more offense than Baldelli. And Cameron, Beltre, and Scutaro should at least be a wash in replacing the offense of Bay, Lowell and Gonzalez/Green.

It will be really interesting to see how Lowell looks in spring training. Just imagine if he gets off to a hot start and David Ortiz looks anemic again. Lowell is a far more versatile player. If Papi isn't tearing the cover off the ball, he's just dead weight. In that scenario, Lowell would be a better DH / reserve third baseman.

The bat the team hoped to acquire this offseason may be Victor Martinez, who only played two months with the Sox last year. Taking Jason Varitek out of the every day lineup will pay dividends. Offensively at least, that will result in a significant upgrade at the position.

Speaking of offense, I have to believe that Scutaro will be an upgrade over Gonzalez,. We can only hope that last year wasn't a freak season and that Scutaro doesn't decline. The good news is that he excelled in the AL East. Defensively, he's said to be every bit as good as Gonzo.

The Sox finished 28th among the Major Leagues’ 30 teams in defensive efficiency in 2009. That simply had to be addressed, and the team did so.

I suspect that Beltre is a former PED user. His 2004 output was totally out of character from any period before, or since. But he doesn't have to perform like that again to be a success in Boston. He's still only 31, and if he can give the Sox 25 homers, they'll be thrilled. Playing half the season in Fenway, instead of Safeco Field, should do wonders for his offense.

I must say that I'm really eager to watch this Red Sox team. The Yankees, as always, will be tough to beat; injuries could decide the division. With such tight competition, it's critical to be healthy down the stretch, and in October.

But not re-signing Johnny Damon may be a decision the Yankees come to regret. They won't be as good without him this season. Curtis Granderson and Randy Winn won't make up for the losses of Hideki Matsui and Damon.

Now if only Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera will start acting their age.

The X-Factor for the Red Sox may turn out to be Jonathan Papelbon. The last time we saw him, he was uncharacteristically melting down at Fenway in Game 3 of the ALDS. To that point, Papelbon had been nearly perfect in postseason play: 17 appearances and 26 scoreless innings.

In 2007-08, Papelbon walked a total of 23 batters; in 2009, he walked 24. Obviously, something was amiss with his control.

Papelbon now realizes that he became far too reliant on his fastball last year, at the expense of his once-trusted splitter. The closer admits that he was overthrowing late last season, including the playoffs. He'll need to regain that pitch to re-establish his dominance.

Last year, Papelbon's ERA dropped to 1.85, from 2.35 in 2008. That matched the 1.85 ERA he posted in the Red Sox championship season of 2007. And he converted 38 of 41 save opportunities last season, better than the 41 of 46 in 2008.

The Sox closer will be just 29 this season, and in the prime of his career. He is eager to put last October's meltdown behind him.

One thing's for certain; he and the other Red Sox pitchers should be well-served by the defense behind them this year.

There are some concerns about the offense, but for what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus projects the Red Sox scoring in excess of 800 runs this season, and finishing atop the AL East.

Now the Sox just need to go out and a prove them right.

MLB's Money Problem Is A Revenue Sharing Problem

2010-01-20T13:43:00.000-08:00

Baseball commissioner Bud Selig says some Major League Baseball teams lost money in 2009, though he has declined to name which teams.

"We don't live in a bubble. And so, I think the clubs in some areas have been hit a lot harder than others," said Selig.

Total attendance was 73.4 million last year, MLB's fifth-highest ever. However, Major League attendance was down seven percent collectively.

MLB's attendance dropped from an average of 32,528 per game in 2008 to an average of 30,350 in 2009.

Like the rest of Detroit, the Tigers are facing financial difficulty. They had one of baseball's biggest attendance drops last season, from a franchise-record 3.2 million in 2008 to fewer than 2.6 million in '09. That amounted to a 20 percent decline.

But the Tigers downturn wasn't even the worst in baseball.

The Mets had the biggest dropoff in attendance from 2008, at 24 percent. The Nationals were down 22 percent, and the Padres declined 22 percent.

While some teams are struggling, others are living quite nicely off of MLB's revenue sharing agreement.

About $400 million — or 34 percent of each team's net local revenue — was distributed to small market teams last year. Most of that percentage came from the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and other high-revenue teams.

However, the Marlins, Royals, and Pirates are taking in more in revenue-sharing than they are spending on MLB player payroll, and showing a profit.

That has gotten the attention of MLB Players Association executive director Michael Weiner.

"We're concerned when we have clubs that are not using the receipts for the purpose to which they were intended under our contract. It's the players' job to enforce that provision,” said Weiner last month.

According to Forbes Magazine's annual team valuations (specifically based on Operating Income, a measure of profitability), the clubs with the lowest player payrolls, who receive the lion’s share of revenue-sharing, are some the league’s most profitable.

The players' union has expressed concerns that revenue sharing proceeds have not been used as required by some teams.

For instance, the Marlins' team payroll has been so small as to violate Major League Baseball's revenue sharing provisions. The Marlins, plagued by poor attendance, have had the lowest payroll in MLB in three of the past four seasons.

Under pressure, last week the Marlins reached an agreement with the players' union to increase spending by an unspecified amount.

MLB's basic agreement calls for each club to use its revenue sharing receipts in an effort to improve the team. But that's clearly not happening. Some clubs (such as the Pirates) are paying down stadium debt, which seems in violation of the agreement.

Perhaps it is financial concerns that has resulted in the large number of still unsigned free agents, many of whom have fine pedigrees.

As of Sunday, the following free agents were all still available:

1B: Russell Branyan, Carlos Delgado
2B: Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez
SS: Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada
3B: Joe Crede, Melvin Mora
DH: Jim Thome, Jason Giambi
OF: Rick Ankiel, Reed Johnson
OF: Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady
OF: Jermaine Dye, Gary Sheffield
C: Bengie Molina, Jose Molina
SP: Joel Piniero, Vicente Padilla
SP: Jon Garland, Pedro Martinez
SP: Ben Sheets, Braden Looper
SP: Chien-Ming Wang, Mark Mulder
SP: Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn
RP: Kiko Calero, Chan Ho Park,
RP: Ron Villone, Kevin Gregg
RP: David Weathers, Jamey Wright

It's an interesting list, and indicates that there is still value to be had, even for lower payroll teams.

As it stands, they are being subsidized by the big market clubs anyway. There is no excuse for them not to spend.

Red Sox Roster Mostly Set with Latest Moves

2010-01-07T20:37:00.000-08:00

Getting Adrian Beltre for a guarantee of just one year and $10 million has to be viewed as a steal for the Red Sox. It's a huge come-down from Scott Boras's early demands of four years and $40 million, or more.

Beltre earned $12 million last season and would have received a bump up in arbitration, which he declined. Perhaps he was just desperate to get out of the expansive Safeco Field.

The Red Sox obviously feel Beltre's surgically repaired shoulder is fully healed, that he can still play stellar defense, and that Fenway will revitalize his offense—which slumped markedly last season.

Beltre is a free swinger who doesn't see very many pitches per at-bat (3.56/AB last season; 3.70 over the previous four seasons). He also has an atrocious .325 carer OBP. However, he does possess a .270 career batting average.

And Beltre averaged 25 homers and a .793 OPS for the Mariners from 2006 to ’08 despite playing at Safeco Field, a power sapper for right-handed hitters. For comparison's sake, Mike Lowell has produced an impressive .829 OPS over four seasons in Boston. During that period, Lowell has averaged 19 homers and 87 RBI.

Beltre was like two different players, depending on whether he was hitting at Safeco or on the road.

Over his five-year career with the Mariners (2005-2009), Beltre played 353 games at Safeco, where he hit .254, with 116 extra-base hits and 174 RBI. In that span, Beltre also played 362 road games, in which he batted .277, with 167 extras-base hits and 222 RBI.

The left field foul pole at Safeco is 331 feet from home plate, and the left field power alley is 390 feet away. For comparison's sake, Fenway Park measures 310 feet down the left field line, and 379 feet in left center.

As a Mariner, Beltre posted a .277 batting average and .813 OPS away from the canyon-like Safeco. Quite similarly, Lowell’s career averages are .280 and .810, respectively. But Beltre is five years younger than Lowell, with better range and speed.

Fenway should be kinder to Beltre. While that remains to be seen, over the course of his 12-year career, he has proven himself as a power-hitter and a run producer.

During the five-year period that Beltre played with Seattle, the only third baseman in the AL to finish with more homers and RBI was Alex Rodriguez.

But to look solely at Beltre's offensive numbers is to miss the point. The Red Sox are aiming to put a premier defense on the field this season and Beltre, a top-notch defender, is part of that strategy.

Widely considered one of the two or three best defensive third basemen in the game today, the Dominican native won back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2007 and 2008.

Last season Beltre posted a .959 fielding percentage, making 14 errors over his 110 starts.

Some fans got caught up in his eye-popping 2004 season with the Dodgers, when he belted 48 homers, drove in 121 runs, and batted .334. But Beltre had never before, and has never since, had a season remotely resembling that one. If he bounces back to hit 25 homers and plays exceptional defense, as he has in the past, the Red Sox will be thrilled.

The crazy thing is that the Red Sox could end up paying $20 million or more in 2010 for Beltre and Lowell, as well as $14 million for shortstops Julio Lugo and Marco Scutaro. That's a lot of money, especially considering that one player, and perhaps two, will be playing for another team in 2010.

Casey Kotchman's tenure as the starting first baseman was awfully brief. The Red Sox essentially exchanged Kotchman for Beltre, and the move should benefit them this season.

However, the Sox now have a trio third basemen on their roster (Beltre, Lowell, and Bill Hall). That would appear to make them desperate to move Lowell. But that could change.

David Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And he has been fading offensively for two consecutive seasons. Last year, he hit a paltry .238, which followed a 2008 season in which he hit .264. That's a dramatic decline for a guy who had been a .302 hitter over his first five seasons in Boston. The point is, Ortiz was more than just a power hitter, he was a very good all around hitter.

Those days may be long since over. Ortiz had a horrible first two months of the 2009 season, and another slump when his steroids scandal broke. Say what what you will about distractions, but all the hoopla never hurt Barry Bonds.

Both Lowell and Ortiz are under contract for roughly the same $12 million this season. If Lowell is hot at the plate in spring training, and Ortiz looks similarly old with diminished bat speed, Ortiz could be the one on the block.

If Lowell is healthy, he is far more versatile. If he shows that he can handle first base in Fort Meyers, that would give him a considerable advantage over Ortiz to remain with the club for the duration of 2010. That said, I did use the word "if" three times in that scenario.

Trading for Bill Hall is confounding; the Sox' bench was already too deep with Kotchman, Lowell, Lowrie, Varitek and Hermida. With five players on the bench, they couldn't carry their customary 12-man pitching staff. So someone had to go.

But replacing Kotchman with Hall doesn't solve that problem. And Hall has played 805 career games, meaning he is long since out of options and can't be sent to Pawtucket.

What this tells us is that Jed Lowrie will start his season at Triple A and may remain there unless his wrist is fully recovered, allowing his offense to bloom once again..

That aside, Hall is a career .251 hitter, with a .309 OBP. Apart from being abysmal, those stats fly in the face of the Sox' organizational philosophy. Additionally, Hall's career fielding percentage is .962, and .838 as a third baseman. That's just horrible.

However, Hall is a utility player with Major League experience in left field, right field, second base and shortstop.

He had a freak year in 2006 when he hit 35 homers, which was twice his output in any year before or since.

Hall is 30 years old and is a fully developed player. I just don't get it. The best you can say is that he is a more versatile player in the field than Kotchman.

The two newest additions seem to mostly set the Red Sox roster, depending on what becomes of Lowell, or possibly Ortiz.

The team's pitching and defense were clearly improved this offseason, and the offense should still be good enough to compete in the AL East and get them into the playoffs.

And once in the playoffs, pitching and defense reign supreme.

That's just what the Red Sox are counting on.

Upcoming Events on Red Sox and MLB Calendar

2010-01-07T06:45:00.000-08:00

Jan 5-15 — Salary arbitration filing period

Jan. 13-14 — Owners meetings, Scottsdale, Ariz.

Jan. 19 — Exchange of salary arbitration figures

Feb. 1-21 — Salary arbitration hearings period, St. Petersburg, Fla.

Feb. 12 — Truck Day: Red Sox equipment truck will leave Fenway Park for arrival in Fort Myers, Fla.

Feb. 18 — Spring training: Reporting day for Red Sox pitchers and catchers; MLB voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players

Feb. 20 — Spring training: First workout for Red Sox pitchers and catchers

Feb. 22 — Spring training: Reporting day for Red Sox positional players

Feb. 23 — Spring training: MLB voluntary reporting date for other players

Feb. 24 — Spring training: First Red Sox full-squad workout

March 2 — Spring training: Mandatory reporting date for players

March 2-11 — Teams may renew contracts of unsigned players

March 3 — First Red Sox spring training game vs. Northeastern

March 17 — Last day to place a player on unconditional release waivers and pay 30 days termination pay instead of 45 days

March 31 — Last day to request unconditional release waivers on a player without having to pay his full 2010 salary

April 3 — Last Red Sox spring training game vs. Nationals (Nationals Park)

April 4 — MLB Opening Night: Red Sox vs. Yankees at Fenway Park; active rosters reduced to 25 players

Mike Lowell Has Come Full Circle With Red Sox

2010-01-03T18:39:00.000-08:00

By now, Mike Lowell's 2005 acquisition by the Red Sox has become a sort of local folklore.

Lowell was supposed to be the "dead weight" the Florida Marlins dumped on the Red Sox in November 2005 in order to procure Josh Beckett. Lowell was under contract for $9 million in each of the next two seasons and was coming off a career-worst season.

For the promise that Becket provided, the Sox parted ways with their No. 1 prospect, Hanley Ramirez, and assumed Lowell's weighty contract, hoping he would return to form at Fenway.

That bet worked out well for both the Red Sox and Lowell, who turned out to be much more than just dead weight or a contract dump.

In 2006, his first year with the Sox, Lowell played in 153 games and rebounded soundly, batting .284 with 20 homers, 80 RBI, and an .814 OPS.

He followed that with an outstanding 2007 season, in which he had career highs in batting average (.324) and RBIs (120) to go with 21 home runs and an .879 OPS in 154 games. Lowell's RBI total set a Red Sox record for third basemen.

The surging Lowell ended his outstanding season with a torrid October. In Boston's four-game World Series sweep of Colorado, Lowell hit .400 (6-for-15) with four RBI, three walks, and a team-high six runs. He homered, doubled, and scored twice in the Game Four clincher at Denver's Coors Field, en route to winning the World Series MVP.

During the Red Sox's subsequent victory parade around Boston, fans held signs aloft and loudly voiced their demands that the club re-sign the third baseman. Lowell had endeared himself to Red Sox Nation.

However, his stellar performance had also gotten the attention of other clubs. The Yankees reportedly offered Lowell a four-year deal worth $50-$55 million to play first base.

The four-time All Star also turned down a four-year contract from the Phillies (reportedly in the vicinity of $50 million) in favor of a three-year, $37.5 million deal to stay in Boston.

Lowell made his decision based on the facts that he liked the city, the organization, his teammates, his manager, and the fans.

However, he has probably regretted that decision ever since.

The Red Sox have tried, or at least discussed, trading Lowell a minimum of three times in the intervening period.

First, the Red Sox had discussions with the Rockies on a Lowell-for-Todd Helton deal after the 2007 season. Then the Sox made an aggressive attempt to sign Mark Teixeira after the 2008 season, which would have left Lowell as the odd man out. And this offseason, they once again tried dealing Lowell to Texas for minor league catcher Max Ramirez.

Taken as a whole, all of this would make any player feel unwanted. Yet, Lowell has taken the high road and maintained the dignified demeanor that has defined his career. He is nothing if not a class act.

However, despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has still remained an offensive threat.

That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that up last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.

But the problem was that Lowell played in just 113 games in 2008, followed by 119 in 2009.

However, in Lowell's view, he could have played more last season. "I feel like I could have played in another 15 to 20 games,'' he said recently.

Apparently the Red Sox saw things differently—and still do.

Lowell will be 36 next month, and the club is concerned that the combination of age and a surgically repaired hip (which may have become arthritic) have permanently affected his range and mobility.

Doctors told Lowell that his hip would not fully recover for a year. Yet, he still played 119 games last season, which may have slowed his healing and recovery to some degree.

In the past two years, prominent players such as Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Carlos Delgado, and Alex Gordon have also undergone hip labrum surgery. But, with the exception of the 37-year-old Delgado, all were younger than Lowell. That likely aided their successful recoveries.

Lowell has dedicated himself to an offseason training regimen geared toward strengthening his hip and improving joint mobility. He says the hip feels better now than at any point last season and is confident in a full recovery. The Red Sox seem less optimistic.

Despite the fact that a lingering right thumb injury blew up a proposed trade to the Rangers, the resulting surgery was described as rather mundane and shouldn't limit Lowell at all. A full recovery is projected. The prescribed rehabilitation period is six to eight weeks and would put Lowell on schedule to start spring training with his teammates next month.

The potential deterioration of his right hip is a much larger matter.

Lowell will have to prove to the Red Sox, and any potential trade partners, that he is fully recovered and can be more than just a DH. But even then, he still has to be able to run the bases effectively.

The Puerto Rican native is a consummate professional. He understands the burden is on him to prove that he is ready and still capable. Lowell still sees himself as an everyday player and wants his name written into the daily lineup card.

That's why the implosion of the deal with Texas affected Lowell as much as the Red Sox. He is entering another contract year and wants to prove himself worthy of one more contract. That aside, he's a gamer who wants to be on the field for at least 150 games per season.

With the Red Sox, he knows he won't get that chance in 2010.

When his playing time was cut down following the acquisition of Victor Martinez at the trade deadline last season, Lowell was not happy. And he will not be happy playing behind Kevin Youkilis, or anyone else, this season.

Yet, he hasn't let the trade talk affect his public demeanor, noting, "I can honestly say I haven't lost a single minute of sleep because of [those reports]."

Perhaps that's because he's guaranteed to be paid $12 million this year, whether he plays or not. But still, the relationship between Lowell and the Red Sox may be irreparably damaged.

Since the Red Sox are reportedly unwilling to consider him as a starter this season, they are still intent on dealing him. And all potential trade partners already know that the Sox are willing to eat 75 percent of his salary. That's not a position of strength for the Red Sox.

“I understand the business. I have no problem in them shopping me around," the classy Lowell said recently.

That's a very professional attitude, and one that we've come to expect from Lowell over his four years in Boston.

The fact that defense has become an issue for Lowell is quite an irony; despite his physical limitations in each of the last two seasons, he still holds the all-time highest fielding percentage for a third baseman.

Yes, as incredible as it may sound, in 1,470 games at third base, Lowell's .976 fielding percentage is good enough for No. 1 all-time , ahead of Brooks Robinson, according to Baseball-Almanac.com.

Lowell also holds the National League record for fewest errors in a season , set in 2004, when he made just seven miscues in 396 total chances. He won the NL Gold Glove the following season when he committed just six errors in 356 chances.

But as far as the Red Sox are concerned, that was then, this is now.

Though Lowell remains a persistent offensive threat, the club will continue to explore all trade avenues through spring training—whatever the cost.

That will result in a disappointing end to the tenure of one of the better third basemen in Red Sox history, and one of the highest-character players to have ever worn the Red Sox uniform.

During his time in Boston, Lowell proved himself to be more than just dead weight. Yet, that is how he is perceived by the organization at this point.

We can't forget that Lowell has already beaten cancer, and we shouldn't discount the possibility that he has yet another bounce-back season left in him.

I, for one, hope so—wherever he plays.

Lackey Signing An Unusual Risk For Epstein

2009-12-15T23:44:00.001-08:00

The signing of John Lackey to a five-year deal is a curious decision for Theo Epstein. The Red Sox GM has typically stayed away from long term deals with 30-something pitchers who come with a history of injury or obvious risk.

Since Epstein became general manager before the 2003 season, he has signed just one free-agent pitcher for more than three years – Daisuke Matsuzaka. Given his age (26), good health, and success in international competition, that was perhaps a special circumstance.

This time around, there are greater risks.

In 2008, Lackey missed the Angels' first 41 games with what was diagnosed as triceps tendinitis.

In 2009, Lackey had an MRI in spring training that revealed inflammation in his right elbow, had a cortisone shot, and missed the Angels' first 34 games.

As a result, Lackey has only thrown 163 1/3 and 176 1/3 innings the last two seasons. Depending on how you look at it, that's either a good or a bad thing.

The Red Sox were concerned enough to put language in his contract that will protect them from a pre-existing medical issue.

After making just 51 starts over the last two years, some might take the view that Lackey's arm hasn't received as much wear as if he'd made the customary 30-plus starts each year. Perhaps his arm has been somewhat preserved, making him fresh next year and beyond.

The Red Sox must think so. They had better hope so.

After striking out 199 and 190 batters in consecutive seasons in 2005-06, Lackey's strikeout rate has dipped dramatically, down to 179, then 130, and 139 each of the last three seasons.

Hopefully he will reverse that trend with the Red Sox next season, and remain healthy and effective for the duration of his contract. That is by no means a given.

Since 1990, only 16 pitchers have signed deals for five years or more. Only two pitchers on that list -- Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina -- averaged 30 or more starts per season over the life of their contracts.

Half of those pitchers ended up as busts -- Barry Zito, Mike Hampton, Chan Ho Park, Darren Dreifort, Denny Neagle, Kei Igawa, Wilson Alvarez and Alex Fernandez.

Obviously, the odds are against Lackey remaining healthy and making consistent starts over the life of the contract. Yet, Epstein went out on a limb on this one to make a splash, and to bridge the gap between his team and the Yankees.

Hopefully, when we look back on this moment five years from now, we'll have the hindsight, and the satisfaction, that his gamble paid off.

Mike Cameron Is No Star, But He's The Red Sox Bridge to 2012

2009-12-15T14:58:00.000-08:00

Red Sox fans are just getting used to the idea of Mike Cameron patrolling left field for the Red Sox next season. And for many, it's not a particularly sexy idea.

After all, Cameron is 37 and has a lifetime .250 average. Among active players, only Jim Thome (2,313) has struck out more times than Cameron (1,798).

It's tough to get excited about that.

However, Cameron is a three time Gold Glover who can still go get the ball. Left field in Fenway should be a piece of cake for this guy, even if he's lost a step–and I've heard no indications that he has.

Additionally, JD Drew has averaged just 121 games a year over the last eleven seasons, and has never played in more than 146 in any of them. As customary, he will miss time for various reasons, and Cameron's ability to play terrific defense in all three outfield positions gives Terry Francona great flexibility.

The reason the Red Sox ended up with the 37-year-old Cameron is that there was a really limited market for corner outfielders after Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, both of whom are grossly overpriced.

Initially, I was hoping the Sox might sign Marlon Byrd or Xavier Nady, who was a rising star until he hurt his shoulder and had surgery last season. Perhaps that shoulder hasn't fully healed. You have to wonder if the Sox ever asked for his medical records?

And if the Red Sox are forced to part with Jacoby Ellsbury in an Adrian Gonzalez trade, then we may see Nady's name resurface, with Cameron going back to his natural position in center field.

The good news is that the Sox were able to get Cameron on a two year deal, at nearly $8 million per season. That may seem a bit pricey to some, but it's a short term arrangement that gets the Sox to their minor league kids, like Redick, Kalish and Westmoreland.

Cameron is the "bridge" that the Sox were talking about this offseason. And if they want to make a bid for someone like Carl Crawford next year, it will be easy to unload Cameron at that price.

It's worth noting that, with Cameron signing for just two years, the Red Sox will now have two outfield spots (left and right) opening up after the 2011 season.

I like that Cameron is said to be a a high character guy and a great clubhouse presence. Apparently, everyone loves him because he's a funny guy and a unifying figure. For whatever it's worth, he should keep things light and relaxed in the Sox clubhouse.

While Cameron's batting average worries me a bit, he has a career .340 OBP, which softens that a little. And he hit at least 20 homers eight times in his career. Over the last 11 years he's averaged 22 HR per season. And it can't be forgotten that he's played his career in expansive pitcher's parks in San Diego, Seattle and New York. He should fare well in the smaller confines of Fenway Park.

The combination of Cameron and Jeremy Hermida should be able to make up for Bay's lost offense.

On a side note, I think everyone is really curious to watch Hermida play, and find out if he can live up to the potential that once had him ranked so highly throughout baseball.

In the end, Cameron will also improve the Red Sox run prevention next year. As a whole, team defense should improve across the board, depending on who's at third / first.

So while Cameron isn't a star attraction, or a big name like Holliday or Bay, he should make a positive impact on the Red Sox in a variety of ways. And the Red Sox were able to acquire him short term, at a cost they can easily afford.

By the way, FanGraphs has this interesting bit here which says that Cameron is actually a better all around player than Bay.

Could Garrett Atkins be the Red Sox Next Third Baseman?

2009-12-13T16:59:00.000-08:00

The Colorado Rockies chose not to tender a contract to third baseman Garrett Atkins last night, making him a free agent.

Colorado had been trying to trade Atkins since last summer, but found no suitable, or willing, trade partners,

Over the past four seasons, the 30-year-old Atkins' OPS has continually declined, from .965, to .853, to.780 to .650.

That ultimately led to him being supplanted by third baseman Ian Stewart at mid-season.

Atkins made just over $7 million last season, and the Rockies weren't wiling to risk an an increase in arbitration for a backup third baseman.

In 2006, when he was just 26, Atkins took the NL by storm, posting a .329 average ( fourth in the NL), a .965 OPS, plus a career-high 29 homers and 120 RBI. He followed that up by batting .301 with 25 homers and 111 RBI in 2007, and .286 with 21 homers and 99 RBI in 2008.

Each year, Atkins declined not only in OPS, but also in batting average, home runs, and RBI. But though his numbers were in retreat, Atkins was still productive – until this year.

In 2009, Atkins gradual devolution morphed into a massive regression, as he slumped to a .226 average, with nine homers and 48 RBI in 126 games.

Atkins is known as a patient hitter with good plate discipline. He has a strong arm, though the rest of his defensive skills are questionable (career fielding percentage of .954 at third). However, his experience at first base (105 career games) also gives him some versatility.

Without question, some team will certainly take a flyer on Atkins (who just turned 30 on Saturday), hoping he can regain his previous form. Perhaps a change of scenery would do him good.

The question for Red Sox fans is whether Boston might be that team.

Regardless of whether the proposed Mike Lowell-for-Max Ramirez deal is consummated, the Red Sox obviously don't feel comfortable with Lowell as their everyday, starting third baseman in 2010.

Though the speculation has been that 31-year-old Adrian Beltre will be Lowell's eventual successor, it's important to remember that his agent is Scott Boras. As such, his contract will be both lengthy and large. Seattle would like to re-sign Beltre, and he will surely have other suitors as well.

Atkins would be a less expensive alternative, and one who will require a much shorter contract to boot. It's likely that Atkins can be had on a one-year deal. He simply needs the opportunity to redeem himself and resurrect his career.

One way or the other, it's a good bet that Atkins will have a new team this week.

After all, Adrian Beltre had an off year in 2009 too. And there is still a developing market for him, though at a much higher price.

Is Jason's Bay's Short Stay in Boston Over?

2009-12-12T15:58:00.000-08:00

Jason Bay's brief career in Boston may be over.

Bay has rejected the Red Sox' latest offer (four years, $60 million) and is entertaining better proposals from other clubs, according to his agent, Joe Urbon.

"We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason."

Though Urbon left open the possibility that the Red Sox could rejoin the negotiations, he didn't sound optimistic about that possibility, saying Bay was prepared to "move on."

The Mets reportedly offered Bay a four-year, $65 million deal, and the Angels and Mariners are among the other clubs showing interest.

The Red Sox have a history of placing a value on a player and not budging from it. They don't get emotionally invested in, or attached to, their players – though some would argue that in the past they've become too enamored with other team's free agents (i.e.Julio Lugo and JD Drew). In recent years, the Red Sox have let Bill Meuller, Kevin Millar, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Johnny Damon all walk away to better offers.

The 31-year-old Bay is believed to be seeking a five-year contract. The Red Sox don't generally like to enter into deals of five years or longer with players in their 30's. However, the Sox did grant JD Drew an eyebrow raising five-year contract three years ago, when he was also 31.

For what it’s worth, during his major league career as a starter (2004-09), Bay ranks in the top 10 of all major league outfielders in OPS, a statistic on which the Sox have placed great emphasis and in which Bay and Drew have been a virtual dead heat over the last six years. However, Bay beats Drew handily in games played (892-749), home runs (181-120), runs scored (564-497) and RBI (596-425).

In the absence of Bay, the Red Sox could move on to negotiations with Scott Boras regarding Matt Holliday. As it stands, the Sox and Boras are already negotiating the parameters of a contract with Adrian Beltre. But knowing how long and protracted negotiations with Boras are, and how highly he values (some would say overvalues) his clients, the Holliday option could be very costly, and perhaps a dead end. In addition, Holliday is likely seeking a contract in excess of five years.

With that in mind, the Sox are also considering Mike Cameron, who will be 37 next month. Cameron is a center fielder, but appears willing to move to a corner outfield spot. In 149 games last season, Cameron posted a .250/.342/.452 line, all essentially matching his career averages. Cameron also had 24 homers and 70 RBI in 2009.

Obviously, that won't make up for the loss of Bay's production, and Cameron seems like a very weak fall back plan. However, Cameron is a far superior defender to Bay, and the Red Sox are placing ever-greater emphasis on run prevention.

Another option for the Sox is free agent Marlon Byrd, who was offered salary arbitration by the Rangers. The 32-year-old outfielder had 20 homers and 89 RBI last season, to go along with a .283/.329/.422 line.

Byrd is a versatile fielder with good range, who has played all three outfield positions. That, coupled with the fact that he is also a right handed hitter with some power, might make him a great fit at Fenway Park.

As an indication of Byrd's terrific character, he won the Rangers' Harold McKinney "Good Guy Award" in 2007.

With highly touted minor league outfielders like Ryan Kalish, Ryan Westmoreland and Josh Reddick just a couple of yeas away from contributing to the big league team, the Red Sox don't seem eager to invest in the defensively limited Bay for more than four years. They believe that before his contract is through, they will have better defensive options at a far lower cost, and that Bay will eventually wind up as an overpriced DH.

With that in mind, it is conceivable that we've seen the last of Jason Bay in a Red Sox uniform.

Why Pay Lowell to Play for Rangers?

2009-12-11T10:57:00.000-08:00

Mike Lowell for Max Ramirez is a proposal / deal that leaves everyone but the Red Sox puzzled. Why would the Red Sox pay up to three-quarters of Lowell's 2010 salary, amounting to $8 or $9 million, to play for Texas?

Yes, Lowell has been hobbled by his surgically repaired hip, but he has told both reporters and the Red Sox that he feels better than at any time since the injury that led to the surgery.

Lowell's doctors told him it would take at least a year to fully recover, which is about now. His hip has become arthritic, which may permanently affect his range and mobility, but Lowell is still a dangerous hitter and could well serve the Red Sox in a variety of capacities: third base, first base, and right handed DH.

The veteran third baseman is a high character guy, widely respected throughout baseball. Red Sox management loves him, despite shopping him (hey, this is a business after all), the fans love him, and his teammates love and respect him.

Lowell is said to be a very positive and professional influence inside the Red Sox clubhouse; you never any scandals or dirty laundry attached to his name.

Most importantly Lowell can still hit. Though he only played in 113 games in 2008, he still notched 17 homers and 73 RBI, which was more than JD Drew.

And last season, despite playing in just 119 games, Lowell once again posted 17 homers and 75 RBI (the latter of which was again better than JD Drew). In fact, Lowell's 75 RBI were fifth highest on the team.

Why wouldn't the Red Sox keep a guy with that kind of offense to platoon at first, third, and DH? Wouldn't he make an ideal pinch hitter? Last season, Lowell became the first Red Sox player to hit two home runs off the bench in the same game since Joe Foy in 1967.

It's understandable that the Red Sox have concerns about Lowell's potential, or continuing, defensive limitations in 2010. But does paying most of his salary to play for another team make any sense? If the deal is consummated, the Red Sox will have payed Lowell about $34 million for just two years of service. That's not a very good return on their investment.

The only way a trade for Max Ramirez makes any sense is if he is simply a trade chip that the Sox will spin off as part of a larger swap.

The Mariners are said to be discussing a deal for the Padres' Adrian Gonzalez, renewing a pursuit that began prior to last season's trade deadline. The fact that the Padres are even listening means that they are at least considering a trade of their franchise player and local hero.

A source told Fox Spots Thursday that the slugging first baseman "could be had in the right deal."

The Padres' new GM Jed Hoyer obviously has close ties to Theo Epstein, and he knows the Red Sox system better than any other team's. Making a deal with the Red Sox for his star first baseman makes more sense than dealing with any other club.

Perhaps the Red Sox are trying to give the Padres an additional trade chip, another young (25), slugging first baseman/catcher. Ramirez is leading the Venezuelan Winter League with 12 homers.

With two catchers already on the Red Sox roster at a combined total of over $10 million next year, there doesn't seem to be a place for the defensively challenged Ramirez in that role. And since the Red Sox will offer a contract to Casey Kotchman to once again be their backup first baseman, that also seems to preclude Ramirez.

So unless the Red Sox are planning to spin off Ramirez in some larger deal, exchanging a veteran hitter and clubhouse leader like Lowell for a player who likely won't impact the big league roster this season is unfathomable. Lowell is a known quantity, while Ramirez is anything but.

At 25, Ramirez still hasn't proven that he can perform at the Major League level. In 57 plate appearances during the 2008 season, Ramirez has a .217 batting average and a .715 OPS, with two homers and nine RBIs.

According to Baseball America, he was the 84th-best prospect in baseball and the 10th-best in the Rangers organization entering last season.

However, injuries to both wrists limited him to just 76 games in 2009, affecting his hitting (.234 avg.) and sapping his power (5 HR).

Despite four All Star selections, two World Series Championships and a World Series MVP, apparently that's all Mike Lowell is worth these days.

Red Sox Trying to Balance Present and Future

2009-12-09T16:46:00.000-08:00

Don't hold your breath for the Red Sox to make big, newsworthy deals for players such as Adrian Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez, or especially Roy Halladay. The cost in terms of prospects is just too high, and the Sox have far fewer chips today than earlier this year.

In the case of Halladay, the cost would also include a massive long term contract for a pitcher entering his mid-thirties. That's just the kind the Red Sox are loathe to give.

In deals for Victor Martinez, Adam LaRoche/Casey Kotchman, Alex Gonzalez and Billy Wagner, the Sox gave up eight minor leaguers. That impacted their upper minor league ranks. And two of their most highly anticipated prospects–Michael Bowden and Lars Anderson–took big steps backward this year and may have been overrated from the start.

Theo Epstein always has an eye on the future, and on future payroll costs. The GM wants to use free agency and trades to supplement and deepen a roster built on homegrown talent.

With that in mind, the Red Sox are not likely to strip down their minor league system any further, and the chances of them parting with some combination of Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and/or Casey Kelly are slim and none.

At this point, Buchholz and Bard are beyond prospects. They have proven themselves, to varying degrees, at the Major League level.

Kelly is now the Red Sox' prized pitching prospect, and could be ready for the Majors by 2011 or 2012, at the latest. He will be under team control, and therefore very cost effective, for six years thereafter. That makes him a keeper.

No doubt, Kelly could eventually implode, as Bowden has. But Kelly was more highly rated from the start. For what it's worth, Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said Kelly has a bright future as a pitcher and called him a "great kid."

"One of the best kids I've ever dealt with. Very mature," raves Oppenheimer.

The Red Sox will have a full season of Victor Martinez next year, and won't be saddled by the daily presence of Jason Varitek's bat in the everyday lineup. That's a big improvement by itself.

And it's likely that the Red Sox will retain Jason Bay after all. The Mariners have already spent big on Chone Figgins and are still in play for John Lackey. That would doubly hurt their division rival Angels.

Speaking of the Angels, last month Angels owner Arte Moreno said that he has roughly $12 million to spend on improving the club. That seems to preclude them from signing Bay or Lackey.

And manager Mike Scioscia has said the Angels have "more pressing needs... right now than the talent that Jason can bring," and that Bay might not be "a great fit for our club."

Unless that's a smokescreen, there's one less potential big market suitor for Bay.

And the left fielder probably has a limited market anyway, since his tepid defensive skills make him better suited for a DH role during the later years of a long term contract. It's hard to envision anyone topping the Red Sox' four-year, $60 million offer.

Assuming the Red Sox re-sign Bay (or sign Matt Holliday), their offense should be improved next year with the addition of Marco Scutaro and a full season of Martinez. As it was, their offense was very good in 2009.

The Red Sox 212 homers and 872 runs last season were better than the 166 homers and 867 runs they produced during their 2007 World Championship season.

Last season, the Red Sox were in the top five in all of baseball in ALL major categories. In fact, the Sox finished in the top two in many areas – second only to the Yankees.

They will be a playoff competitor again next year. But they will return with largely the same team as last season, which was swept in the ALDS.

But Epstein will not sacrifice his long term plan for a short term splash.

As he put it recently, “I’d say 90 percent of our time as baseball operations is spent trying to build the foundation and build our long-term outlook. Ten percent of our time is spent maximizing our competitiveness in any one particular year."

Unless the Red Sox sign free agents, trades would merely result in addition by subtraction, which doesn't seem like a great strategy. Other teams aren't eager to trade for Big Papi or Mike Lowell and their $12 million salaries. The players other teams call about are Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, etc.

The Red Sox will spend big next winter when the contracts of Papi, Lowell, Josh Beckett, and Julio Lugo come off the books, and the free agent market will be deeper.

In the meantime, they will resist the temptation of a short term payoff, focusing instead on larger, long term rewards. They will try to balance wise trades and free agent signings with the goal of keeping the pipeline of talented prospects flowing to the big league club. All the while, they will attempt to do this without ever entering into a rebuilding mode.

"The short fix – the shiny toy – it’s always attractive," said Epstein. "It’s always a temptation. There’s always a seduction there. I think we talk to each other about staying disciplined and making the move when it actually will have an impact, but not if it hurts us more in the long term than it helps us.’’

Keeping the GM's perspective in mind will help to temper any unrealistic expectations this offseason.

Scutaro Was the Best They Could Do?

2009-12-03T22:32:00.001-08:00

Pending a physical, the Red Sox and free agent shortstop Marco Scutaro have reached an agreement on a two-year deal, with an option for a third year.

Scutaro had the best season of his career in 2009, putting up .282/.379/.409 numbers. He had career highs in runs (100), homers (12), doubles (35), steals (14) and matched his career high with 60 RBI.

The numbers that particularly stand out are his OBP (which was third among AL shortstops), doubles, and runs scored.

But my bet is that this guy has peaked. He had a career year at the age of 34.

This is the Red Sox first significant move of this offseason (Jeremy Hermida notwithstanding), and the feeling I'm left with is: This is it? This is the best the Red Sox could do?

It's simply difficult to get excited about Marco Scutaro, who, at age 34, is coming off a career year.

Scutaro's career stat line is .265/.337/.384, which is tough to get excited about. Over the past six seasons he's averaged 8 homers and 47 RBI. Getting excited yet?

Scutaro has played 415 career games at shortstop, 306 at second base, 98 at third base, 18 in the outfield, and three at first base.

As a shortstop, Scutaro has a .973 career fielding percentage.

For comparison's sake, Alex Gonzalez has a .970 career FP over 1206 games, a significantly higher sample size. Orlando Cabrera also has a .970 career FP, over 1684 career games at short. And Edgar Renteria also has a career .970 FP, over 1960 games at short.

Ultimately, after all the chaos and flux at the shortstop position for the Red Sox, many of us were hoping for something more dramatic, and player who is far more dynamic. But it was not to be.

Meet your new shortstop, Red Sox fans. Get used to him; apparently he'll be around for at least two years.